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Wikipedia as Illustration of the Truth-Seeking Rationale for Freedom of Expression

By Mark Cenite

Empirical evidence for the truth-seeking rationale for freedom of expression – the assertion that truth prevails in a free marketplace of ideas – is difficult to interpret. Analysis of how Wikipedia functions, and the accuracy of its content, provides preliminary indications of the validity of the truth-seeking rationale and its limits.

A rationale for protecting freedom of expression that ranks among the most cited is the truth-seeking rationale. According to this rationale, information and opinion should circulate free of government controls. The sanguine conclusion is that truth, or at least the best ideas, will prevail in the end. The evidence for this sweeping conclusion is limited and disputable, as this article demonstrates. Given the paucity of solid evidence from other contexts, this article suggests that Wikipedia can serve as an illustration of how relatively unfettered expression can lead to the best content prevailing, at least in some circumstances. 

Despite the limited evidence for it, citations of three famous sources of the truth-seeking rationale are frequent. An early expression of the rationale is from English poet John Milton’s Areopagitica (1644), his defense of free speech, in which he uses a metaphor of Truth and Falsehood wrestling and Truth winning in a fair match.1 Areopagitica has been cited 478 times in law review articles published since 1982 that are available in LexisNexis Academic; there are also 49 citations of it in federal and state cases available in the LexisNexis database from throughout United States legal history.2 Another source for the rationale is English philosopher John Stuart Mill’s On Liberty (1859), in which he advanced the argument that truth will prevail and that a side effect of the struggle to identify the truth is that participants in the debate, and those in the audience, may gain a keener appreciation of the truth that finally emerges. A search for citations of Mill’s On Liberty and “free speech” returns 1,683 hits from law reviews and 65 hits from the US cases since Mill’s publication of the work.3 Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes is often cited for the view the truth would prevail in the “marketplace of ideas”, though Holmes did not actually use the exact phrase, but instead words with similar meaning: “[T]he best test of truth is the power of the thought to get itself accepted in the competition of the market.”4 A LexisNexis search for “Holmes” and “marketplace of ideas” yields 2,979 hits in law reviews and 193 hits in cases.

In the sentence after Holmes advanced this “marketplace of ideas” rationale, he wrote that it “is the theory of our Constitution. It is an experiment, as all life is an experiment. Every year, if not every day, we have to wager our salvation upon some prophecy based upon imperfect knowledge.”5 Is the rationale merely a prophecy? What are the results of the ongoing experiment? What evidence can one cite of the free marketplace of ideas actually creating conditions in which the best ideas prevail? We shall discuss national comparisons and a famous study of the incidence of famine in liberal democracies.  Though the illustration is imperfect, we argue that analysing Wikipedia as a contemporary example of a well-functioning free market of ideas is preferable to making a statement, on blind faith, that truth emerges.

Evidence for the Truth-Seeking Rationale: National Comparisons

One might say that the truth-seeking rationale is being tested regularly, if one contrasts debates in societies that enjoy more freedom of speech with others. In free societies, does truth displace falsehood? If we simply look at the national level, there are too many confounding variables to make comparisons rigorously. The most difficult question is how to assess the outcome variables: How does one choose the variables to examine to assess which ideas are true (or best) and whether they have prevailed? A less complex but real concern is assessing the level of freedom of expression in nations; ratings and rankings of organisations like Reporters Without Borders and Freedom House are fraught with controversy for being subjective, biased, or imprecise.6

Free expression is a factor that facilitates discovery of better arrangements for distributing basic resources; the best ideas prevail, at least in this very narrow context. 

Limited evidence supporting the rationale comes from Amartya Sen, the Nobel Prize winning economist, who found that there has never been famine – widespread hunger that results in part from human error – in a functioning democracy with a free press.7 He suggested this correlation is not spurious, but may actually be a result of causation. Sen suggests that in free societies, citizens and the press take the steps necessary to intervene in the sequence of missteps that results in famine. Free expression is a factor that facilitates discovery of better arrangements for distributing basic resources; the best ideas prevail, at least in this very narrow context.  

Despite the weakness of the evidence for it, the truth-seeking rationale has become something of a cliché in free societies. The rationale has its detractors, however, such as legal scholar Alexander Bickel, who wrote, “[W]e have lived through too much to believe it”, for one must ask “whether our experience has not taught us that even such ideas [as proletarian dictatorship, segregation, or genocide] can get themselves accepted” in the marketplace of ideas.8 Legal scholar Lee Bollinger wrote that if truth emerges in the long run, it may be too late for many who suffer through the process.9 “Market failure” theorists point out that just as entirely free markets sometimes fail to produce the best outcomes and can benefit from government regulation, the marketplace of ideas can fail: lack of economic resources can prevent some from participating in debates that are controlled by wealthy media owners and dominated by voices backed by big promotional budgets.10 Sceptics of the truth-seeking rationale abound; the founding Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, was among those who emphasised that freedom of expression would lead to “a mess” unless people were sufficiently educated for a well-informed, rational debate: “This free-for-all, this notion that all ideas should contend and there will be blinding light out of which you will see the truth – ha!”11

Wikipedia as Marketplace of Ideas

Given the paucity of good tests of the truth-seeking rationale, we ask: To what extent does Wikipedia approximate a free marketplace of ideas? And to what extent do the best ideas prevail there? The tentative conclusion of this article is that Wikipedia provides suggestive evidence that a marketplace of ideas operates surprisingly well for truth discovery.

Wikipedia, founded by Jimmy Wales in 2001 and governed by the nonprofit Wikimedia Foundation, has long ranked as one of the most-visited Internet sites.12 Anyone can write or amend Wikipedia articles. A user can register for a screen name, but one of the core, immutable rules of Wikipedia is that one does not need to register for a username to make edits.13 Wikipedia mandates a “neutral point of view”: Contributors are to make articles that emphasise the facts that people agree upon and, when covering controversies, mention disagreements and attribute them to their sources.14 Users can tag content that departs from content guidelines.15 Wikipedia has administrators who have powers to do things like lock a page temporarily when users get involved in “edit wars” (repeatedly changing the content of a page)16 or when “vandalism” occurs, including violations of guidelines such as adding abusive language, nonsense, or personal attacks to an entry.17

Is Wikipedia a Functioning Free Market of Ideas?

No one claims Wikipedia is perfect, and the ease with which one may make changes has been the target of jokes and critiques.18 How well does Wikipedia approximate a free exchange of ideas? Contributions might be likened to a grand debate in the town square among all who wish to contribute – no matter how ridiculous, misguided or inaccurate their views. As in a debate, there is no guarantee that one’s contributions will be accepted. Users are encouraged to correct each other’s errors, update information, and to call attention to bias. The difference from a debate is that in Wikipedia the conclusion is digitally written down, and collectively edited and rewritten, to reflect at least a temporary consensus.

Wikipedia is like a free marketplace of ideas in that it lacks vetting at the point that a contribution is made.

Wikipedia is like a free marketplace of ideas in that it lacks vetting at the point that a contribution is made. In free speech jurisprudence, the most disfavoured type of censorship is prior restraint, a kind of censorship in which content is vetted and suppressed (or restrained) prior to its circulation; subsequent punishment (after publication) is seen as a preferable way to control expression, and better yet is no punishment at all, but simply more debate on the issue (sometimes called “counter-speech”).19 On Wikipedia there is an absence of anything remotely analogous to prior restraint – there is not any sort of editorial vetting of content prior to circulation. There is also absence of prior restraint in a more classic legal sense on Wikipedia: Wikipedia generally does not carry out the many requests from governments around the world to remove content.20  Government agents can make their own alterations to content, but they are individual users like any others.21

The comparison of Wikipedia to the free press is an imperfect analogy. However, the freedom of Wikipedia contributors from any constraints – freedom from editing before publication as well as freedom from government censorship – creates a platform that may be one of the closest approximations of an international free marketplace of ideas.

Does the Best Content Prevail on Wikipedia

In a free marketplace of ideas, truth is supposed to prevail, according to this rationale. Does it? There is limited but encouraging evidence regarding the factual accuracy (the truth or falsehood) of the entries. In a frequently-cited study published in Nature, experts compared the entries on 42 scientific topics in Wikipedia and in the Encyclopedia Britannica, whose articles are written by paid subject experts.22 For example, both sources’ articles about the centre of our solar system, the sun, were examined. Across the pairs of articles, there were four errors in each source that were judged serious. On average, each of the Britannica articles contained 3 errors that were judged minor, compared to 4 minor errors in each Wikipedia article. Wikipedia is different in other ways, however; entries are far more up-to-date, and its scope is more comprehensive.

In a 2012 preliminary study conducted by Wikimedia Foundation in cooperation with Oxford University, Wikipedia articles in multiple languages were compared to entries in other encyclopedias in those languages. Across multiple disciplines, expert judges found Wikipedia articles superior in accuracy and references, though Wikipedia was weaker in style and overall ratings for some articles.23 The Journal of Oncology Practice also found similar accuracy of Wikipedia entries and a professionally edited database of medical information, though Wikipedia was judged less readable.24

What to conclude from these studies? Wikipedia’s free marketplace of ideas seems to have produced a high standard of accuracy compared to expert authors. Lower readability and style ratings for Wikipedia, plus the slightly higher rate of minor errors in one study, are perhaps compensated for by the more comprehensive and up-to-date coverage.

Preliminary Conclusions

Wikipedia provides a useful example for teaching and for illustrating the truth-seeking rationale in action because its input is free of any sort of restraints and the output is high quality. Because it is designed to allow contributors freedom from central control, and because its operators resist efforts to censor it, Wikipedia operates as an ongoing test of the whether truth prevails when, to paraphrase Milton, truth and falsehood grapple freely. So far, the accuracy of Wikipedia has proven reassuringly comparable to other sources that are authoritative by traditional measures.

Wikipedia provides a useful example for teaching and for illustrating the truth-seeking rationale in action because its input is free of any sort of restraints and the output is high quality.

Wikipedia’s “edit wars” and “vandalism” are also potentially revealing. Perhaps crowdsourcing of the truth in a free marketplace of ideas works best when more neutral subjects are involved, such as the mundane scientific entries about the sun in the Nature study. But when matters of passionate dis-agreement are involved – such as articles about controversial figures like Donald Trump – Wikipedia’s authorities, its editors, intervene in the free market and block some contributors or lock the page. Once again, the comparison to regulation is thought-provoking; even in many relatively free societies, regulations control some kinds of expression, including offensive content. The rare instances in which Wikipedia’s editors intervene suggest that the marketplaces of ideas may function best when it is relatively, but not completely, free.

About the Author

Mark Cenite is Associate Chair (Academic) at the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication & Information, part of Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He has a law degree from Stanford Law School and a PhD in Communication from the University of Minnesota. He is a winner of multiple awards for teaching Law in Singapore, and has also taught Law in the United States and Hong Kong. 

References

1. “And though all the windes of doctrin were let loose to play upon the earth, so Truth be in the field, we do injuriously, by licencing and prohibiting to misdoubt her strength. Let her and Falshood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the wors, in a free and open encounter.” John Milton, Areopagitica(1644).
2. Results reported here were from searches conducted on 19 September 2016 in the LexisNexis database in the category “US Law Reviews and Journals” from all available dates (since 1982), and in the category “US Federal & State Cases” from all available dates. The search term used was simply the title “Areopagitica.”
3. The search terms were “Mill” within 5 words (/5) of “On Liberty” and the term “free speech”.
4. Abrams v. United States, 250 U.S. 616, 630 (1919) (Holmes, J., dissenting).
5. Abrams, 250 U.S. 616, 630 (Holmes, J., dissenting).
6. Reporters Without Borders is available at https://rsf.org; Freedom House is available at https://freedomhouse.org. A podcast criticising the methodology of Reporters Without Borders is Bob Garfield’s interview with Max Fisher, “No, US press freedom is not in dire decline,” WNYC’s On The Media, Feb. 14, 2014, at http://www.wnyc.org/story/press-freedom-not-decline
7. Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom(1999).
8. Alexander Bickel, The Morality of Consent71, 76-77 (1975).
9. Lee C. Bollinger, The Tolerant Society74 (1986).
10. Jerome A. Barron, Access to the Press: A New First Amendment Right, 80 Harv. L. Rev. 1641-1678 (1967).
11. “Intellectual Free-For-All Not for the Masses, Says SM Lee,” Business Times (Singapore) (Oct. 6, 1995).
12. See Alexa Internet, http://www.alexa.com
13. “Wikipedia: Rules,” https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Rules
14. “Wikipedia: Neutral point of view,” https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Neutral_point_of_view
15. “Wikipedia: Tagging pages for problems,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Tagging_pages_for_problems
16. “Wikipedia: Edit War,” https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_war
17. “Wikipedia: Vandalism,” https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Vandalism
18. “Will Wikipedia Mean the End Of Traditional Encyclopedias?” The Wall Street Journal (Sept. 12, 2006).
19. Thomas I. Emerson, The Doctrine of Prior Restraint, 20 Law and Contemporary Problems648-671 (1955), at: http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/lcp/vol20/iss4/10
20. Wikimedia reports that Wikipedia received 243 requests to take down content from January through June of 2016 and none were granted. See https://transparency.wikimedia.org/content.html
21. There are some caveats to the argument that Wikipedia is free of government control, for authorities can of course punish contributors in their jurisdictions, and nations including China block Wikipedia, thus blocking not only readers but contributors. See Jimmy Wales, “State of the Wiki: Free Expression and Wikipedia,” speech at Wikimania 2015, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6p50HVv1rU4
22. Jim Giles, Internet Encyclopaedias Go Head to Head, 438 Nature900-901 (15 December 2005).
23. Imogen Casebourne, Chris Davies, Michelle Fernandes, & Naomi Norman (2012), Assessing the Accuracy and Quality of Wikipedia Entries Compared to Popular Online Encyclopaedias: A Comparative Preliminary Study across Disciplines in English, Spanish and Arabic. Retrieved from: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EPIC_Oxford_report.pdf
24. Malolan S. Rajagopalan, Vineet K. Khanna, Yaacov Leiter, Meghan Stott, Timothy N. Showalter, Adam P. Dicker & Yaacov R. Lawrence, Patient-Oriented Cancer Information on the Internet: A Comparison of Wikipedia and a Professionally Maintained Database. 7 Journal of Oncology Practice 319-323 (2011), at http://www.jop.ascopubs.org/content/7/5/319.full

Patient Capital in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

By Justin Yifu Lin and Yan Wang

As the world is carefully watching China’s Belt and Road Initiative, many new opportunities continue to spring from the country’s endeavour. In this article, the authors elaborate on New Structural Economics and “going beyond aid” as an ideal development objective for trade, aid, and investment in relation to developing countries.

Against the backdrop of Brexit and the “Paris-exit” by the Unite States, China-led “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)” was welcomed by many, as shown by its Forum held in Beijing with 29 heads of state attending and over 100 countries represented. What is the rationales behind the “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?1  What is the theoretic foundation of South-South Development Cooperation (SSDC)? How does it differ from Aid? How to finance the BRI and other infrastructure gaps in the developing world?

The idea that the Official Development Assistance (ODA) must be concessional is questionable. Economic development is the main purpose of ODA, yet some of the more effective instruments of facilitating structural transformation, such as equity investment and large non-concessional loans for infrastructure are excluded from the OECD definition of ODA. Our new book, Going beyond aid: Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation, published by Cambridge University Press,2 is an attempt to explore these rationales and provide a theoretic foundation based on New Structural Economics.3 In our view, we need to “go beyond aid” with a broader concept including trade, aid and investment for development objectives. Differing from the OECD definition, South-South Development Cooperation (SSDC) combines trade, aid and public and private investment, utilises comparative advantages of each countries and their intimate know-how on development, and hence is more effective in overcoming bottlenecks in partner countries. Whereas, the OECD definition of ODA separates aid from trade, delinks aid with private investment and foreign direct investment, and therefore, “comparative advantage”, a trade concept, cannot be utilised in official aid. 

The rationales of BRI are related to China’s own structural transformation, and are deeply rooted in its thousand-year history of Confucianism, who said, “One who wishes himself to be successful must also help others to be successful; one who wishes to develop himself must also help others to develop.”

The New Structural Economics (NSE) starts with the observation that the nature of modern economic development is a process of continuous structural change in technologies and industries, which raises labour productivity, and hard and soft infrastructure, which reduces transaction costs, making possible the continuous increase in per capita income in an economy.4  According to the NSE,  the most effective and sustainable way for a low-income country to develop is to jump-start the process of structural transformation by developing sectors of its latent comparative advantages, which the country has low factor costs of production determined by its endowment structure but  high transaction costs  due to inadequate hard and soft infrastructure. The government can help transform the sectors with latent comparative advantages into the nation’s competitive advantages by reducing transaction costs through special economic zones or industrial parks with good infrastructure and an attractive business environment. If a developing country adopts this approach, it can immediately grow dynamically and launch a virtuous circle of job generation, export expansion and poverty reduction, even though overall infrastructure and business environment in the nation may be poor.

The rationales of BRI are related to China’s own structural transformation, and are deeply rooted in its thousand-year history of Confucianism, who said, “One who wishes himself to be successful must also help others to be successful; one who wishes to develop himself must also help others to develop.”

First, China has proposed to enhance global connectivity by BRI in part because it has demonstrated comparative advantages in building infrastructure, including hydroelectric power stations, highways, ports, railways, and telecomm. China’s labour cost for project site foremen is one eighth of those in OECD countries. The vast domestic market and railway network allow China to realise “economy of scale” that other countries can’t have: the overall construction cost for high speech rail is only two thirds of those in industrial countries. Based on China’s own experience, building infrastructure sooner rather than later could facilitate international trade by lower transaction cost.5

Second, China has constructed many Industrial Parks and Special Economic Zones overseas, in part as it has successful experiences. In addition, China has comparative advantage in 46 out of 97 subsectors, mostly in manufacturing sectors, and is using them to help other developing countries achieve win-win. As labour cost rises in China, its labour-intensive industries are relocating to other lower-wage developing countries, providing millions of job opportunities. This is already happening in Southeast Asia and in East Africa as shown by examples of Huajian Shoemaking Company located in Eastern Industrial Zone of Ethiopia, C&H Garments in Rwanda and China JD Group, a giant apparel firm in Tanzania.6

Third, a new concept of “patient capital” can be utilised to finance the BRI and infrastructure gaps. Based on a culture of Confucianism, China and several East Asian economies are ranked high in “long term orientation” index.7  In our new joint paper we propose a concept of “patient capital” as those capitals to be invested in a “relationship” in which the stakeholder/investor is willing to take a stake in the host country’s development, aiming for a win-win.8 Owners of patient capital are equity-like investors but willing to “sink” money in the real sector or unlisted infrastructure projects for a long time – as long as 10 years and above. And they are willing and better able to take risks. In addition, we find that Net Foreign Asset is positively and significantly associated with Long Term Orientation index. On the other hand, countries with Short Term Orientation and low savings rates would see their Net Foreign Asset positions deteriorating and their foreign debt mounting.

China is a late comer – as it has just started to use its comparative advantage in patient capital to help releasing infrastructural bottlenecks to achieve win-win solutions. In terms of cross border M&A, China started to be a net suppliers in 2008. In terms of Net FDI (outflows minus inflows), China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) in 2016, stood at $183 billion dollars, second only to the United States, had exceeded the inflows for two consecutive years (UNCTAC 2017). In addition, China also provides significant overseas lending through China EXIM Bank and China Development Bank. In recent years, each bank has been lending about $100 billion overseas.9

Patient capital plays an important role in infrastructure financing. Successful countries with future orientation (as in Spence 2008) have seen their infrastructure better financed. Other evidence of rising patient capital can be seen by the rising number of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and government-sponsored “Strategic Investment Funds (SIFs)” established by countries like Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Philippines, Senegal, South Africa and Vietnam.10 The number of Multilateral Strategic Investment Funds (MSIFs), including those for infrastructure, are rising as well. This trend is in tune with our proposal of establishing a “Global Structural Transformation Fund” in our 2013 paper for the UN Post-2015 agenda.11 Using recent PrEQin data, it shows that “the median net internal rates of return (IRR) for private infrastructure funds across all vintages remains consistent at around 10%” (2015). The best performance can be seen in Temasek, Singapore’s SWF: By investing in Asian emerging market economies, its annual shareholder return reached a steller 15 percent since inception (Temasek Annual Review 2016). The point is that, if the patient capital can be invested in the bottleneck releasing infrastructure, the economic and financial returns could be higher than the “risk-free bond yield”.  

China is shifting from bilateralism to multilateralism showing its willingness to work with partners from the North and the South. The establishment of AIIB, New Development Bank and the Silk Road Fund, provide new momentum in the global development arena.

Currently China’s large amount of patient capital has been used at home. Along with the gradual opening of China’s capital account, more patient capital is going to be exported as more enterprises and banks “going global”. Patient capital often comes with technology, management skills and implementation capacity in infrastructure and manufacturing, the export of which will have strong impact on global connectivity and development. Using NFA as an imperfect measure, “China is likely to emerge in the next few years as the world’s largest net creditor”,12 and a proportion of these net foreign assets would be in fact patient capital, suitable for infrastructure, manufacturing and employment generation.

China is shifting from bilateralism to multilateralism showing its willingness to work with partners from the North and the South. The establishment of AIIB, New Development Bank and the Silk Road Fund, provide new momentum in the global development arena. China is trying to learn from partners to overcome its own constraints in governance, labour and environmental standards. And during the two-way learning process, new ideas, new theories and new concepts /definitions are going to emerge – our book being one of them. We are cautiously optimistic that a common ground can be found for partners from the North and the South to work together on multiple win approaches to achieve the goals of sustainable development by 2030.

Chinese President Xi Jinping declares opening of the Leaders’ Roundtable Summit at the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) Beijing, China, May 2017
© Xinhua/Ma Zhancheng

About the Authors 

Justin Yifu Lin is Director, Centre for New Structural Economics; Dean, Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development; and Honorary Dean, National School of Development at Peking University. He was the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, 2008-2012. He is the author of 32 books including Going beyond Aid: Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation, the Quest for Prosperity: How Developing Economies Can Take Off, Demystifying the Chinese Economy, and New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy. 

Dr. Yan Wang is Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Centre for New Structural Economics, Peking University. She previously worked as Senior Economist and Team Leader in the World Bank for 20 years. She has received twice the SUN Yefang Award in Economics (the highest award in economics in China), and her major joint publications include Going beyond Aid: Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation (2017 by Cambridge University Press).

References

1. The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is an international development cooperation initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping that focuses on connectivity and cooperation amongst Eurasian countries with respect to the overland Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road.
2. Lin, Justin Yifu and Yan Wang. (2017a). Going beyond Aid: Development Cooperation for Structural Transformation.  Cambridge University Press.
3. Lin, Justin Yifu. 2010. “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development.” Policy Research Working Paper 5197, World Bank, Washington, DC. and Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011. “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development.” World Bank Research Observer 26 (2): 193–221.
4. See Lin and Wang 2017a.
5. Hofstede 1990, 2010
6. Lin, Justin Yifu and Yan Wang. 2017b. “New Structural Economics: Patient Capital as a comparative advantage”, in Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, Vol. 1, No.1.
7. Dollar, David. 2016. “China as a Global Investor”, Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-as-a-global-investor/
8. Halland, Havard, et al 2016. “Strategic Investment Funds: Opportunities and Challenges”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper October 2016
9. Lin, J. Y., and Y. Wang. 2013. “Beyond the Marshall Plan: A Global Structural Transformation Fund.” paper for the United Nations Post-2015 High Level Panel on development agenda. May 22, 2013.
10. Dollar, 2016.

Grand Vision: China’s OBOR in Context

By Anoush Ehteshami

China celebrated the progress of its ambitious One Belt, One Road initiative in Beijing in May 2017. The OBOR is vast in scale, dwarfing the last major multilateral development initiative of our times, the US-led post-War Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of western Europe. It is also geographically vast, encompassing virtually all of Asia, much of Europe and Africa’s eastern regions. This Initiative has the potential to transform Eurasia and also major parts of Africa, so what it is about and what does it tell us about its architect?

Introduction

The BRI is vast, building six vast economic corridors – China-Mongolia-Russia, New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Central and West Asia, China-Indo-China Peninsula, China-Pakistan and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar – across Eurasia and it is set to become the centrepiece of China’s development strategy, according to Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli.1 Combined, these corridors will create an intricate network of 56 European and Asian countries working alongside each other, generating billions of dollars in investment capital and revenue, and creating employment opportunities across Asia and much of Europe and Africa. China today projects its influence westwards, in the context of the BRI, through investment, construction, extraction and commerce – through the exercise of soft power on a massive scale. The sum of $4 trillion allocated to the OBOR has the potential to be transformational in its impact. Inter-OBOR trade of over $2.2 trillion is anticipated. The OBOR is also the focus of China’s direct investment largesse, which provides the vehicle for the mobilisation of Chinese businesses in Asia. So, in 2015 44% of China’s engineering projects were in the OBOR countries, but the figure had jumped to over 52% in 2016.2 This will inevitably rise as projects across the Initiative’s frontiers get under way. That China has embarked upon it is a measure of the country’s self-confidence and a public expression of its efforts to become the heart of Asia – to become Asia’s “indispensable power”.

That China has embarked upon it is a measure of the country’s self-confidence and a public expression of its efforts to become the heart of Asia – to become Asia’s “indispensable power”.

So, the (BR) Initiative should not be taken lightly by outside observers; nor should it be viewed in isolation of China’s other strategic policies. These other policies take different forms and manifest themselves differently too. The OBOR (and the associated AIIB) forms the latest the ring of the circles in China’s strategic priorities in Asia, which combines cooperation with ASEAN as a strategic imperative, and the strengthening of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a security priority, as the other. Together, it seems to me, these spheres form China’s three circles of influence in Asia. These, in different but complementary ways, contribute to China’s efforts of building security and economic bonds across its neighbourhood. Using different mechanisms arguably enhances and accentuates China’s strategic reach as each of these circles has the material power to change and shape countries’ policies and regions well beyond their immediate areas of attention. Together they multiply China’s policy instruments and give it a credible voice across continents – from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

China’s New World Order

Viewed as a major foreign policy initiative, the articulation of BRI and the construction of it represents a concerted effort to build what the English School of international relations might see as the building of what could be termed an “international Asian society” based on shared norms and rules. What Hedley Bull, arguably the founder of the English School, might point to as illustration of “conscious of certain common interests and common values”.3 Indeed, the Chinese leadership’s statements regarding the BRI have come very close to invoking values long cherished by the liberal bend of international relations community: Elements of cosmopolitanism are discernible for example – in the ways through which the tendency of peoples in different countries embracing each other as fellow Asian citizens is being promoted,4 and also the unserved promotion of the market. So, in March 2015 President Xi strongly promoted the OBOR initiative at the Boao Forum for Asia and articulated a vision of harmony, mutual respect and cooperation consistent with what he said would be a new “common community” in Asia emerging in the wake of this initiative.5

Unlike the post-1945 American Marshall Plan for western Europe, the BRI has apparently been accepted unopposed by the marginal states, emerging powers, as well as the established giants of Asia.

A community of partners along the OBOR will emerge thanks to the network of relationships that the Initiative would give birth to. For the Chinese leadership, this will come to represent a “chorus of countries” working together along the route (in Bull’s terms, “share in the working of common institutions”6). This will not be, President Xi emphasised, a “solo of a single country”. Common community and common destiny will go hand-in-hand. The OBOR has envisaged the building of a concert of inter-state and inter-communal relations. This is a pre-emptive Marshall Plan unleashed on a massive continental scale, but unlike the post-1945 American Marshall Plan for western Europe (which the Soviet Union saw as a direct assault on its interests in Europe), the BRI has apparently been accepted unopposed by the marginal states, emerging powers, as well as the established giants of Asia. In presenting the Initiative as an expression of common destiny, moreover, the Chinese leaders have invoked the cognitive power of the Initiative, with proclaims common goals without invoking ideology or notions of superior values. The strategy is not about making Asia communist, nor about the imposition of China’s values, or the imposition of its (rich) civilisation on others. It is, rather, about practical inter-state engagement.

 

 

Further, China’s strategy westwards (Central, South and West Asia) should be viewed in the broader context of its complex position in the international system and a relationship which is shaped by the “continual tension in the dual-identity of China as a rising power and at the same time a developing country”.7 The notion of a rising/emerging global power – terms which have been used by Western leaders and international NGOs alike about China – impose on China certain expectations that it simply is not, yet, equipped to meet. The conditionalities which follow the assumptions regarding major power status imposed on China, moreover, are expectations which Beijing either does not intend to accept at all – seeing these as a straightjacket – or are simply beyond its abilities as a still-developing country to fulfil.8 Furthermore, it is a long leap of faith to assume that a dominant China in a post-American multipolar world order would necessarily act in the same way as its twentieth century Western predecessors did and develop a “vision” or “agenda” for global leadership – aim to reshape the world in its own image.9 China is keen to separate notions of great power status from assumptions about hegemony. Evidence, arguably, speaks to China seeking to become Asia’s “indispensable power”.10 Evidence also points to the reality that China’s rise is so conditioned by its dual-identity that it will continue to devote energy towards securing its position and interests at the subsystem level in Asia. Surrounding areas are China’s first priority. Working on the assumption that the BRI is a key element of Beijing’s grand strategy, embedded in its strategy of building an international Asian society, it is possible to argue that to legitimise Beijing’s drive westwards it has to articulate the idea of a “common destiny”. But this not only has to be associated with being the founder of the OBOR, but being welcomed, indeed desired, by the countries and communities which are to find themselves along China’s new “Silk Lanes” (on land, rail and sea).

China Dream 2.0

China must be seen as the embodiment of the Initiative, and for this to gain momentum it must create a set of principles and priorities which will drive the BRI. The first of these principles is surely historical legacy; that there are real historical parallels to draw on for the purpose of building the belt and roads and pipelines. In terms of observations regarding the Initiative’s strategic aims and planning, it is significant that China has “packaged” the proposed transport links in maritime, concrete and steel terms. These make an unprecedented transport strategy! The like of this Initiative has not been seen anywhere in the world and the scale of the operation surpasses the infrastructure that past European empires had built in parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The Initiative is not only multifaceted and multidimensional but is, in its approach, integrated and comprehensive.

Cognitively and materially China has opened up itself to Eurasia and has taken this risk in order to secure its own place, to change Asia’s economic dynamics in its own favour, to improve the socio-economic conditions of its western regions, to check other powers’ influence in its own backyard, and to tie into its own sphere of influence a whole host of resource-rich countries who can guarantee the necessary ingredients for China’s maturing economy for decades to come. The BRI then is not hegemonic but pragmatic. Further, the Initiative and the AIIA in this broader context, I venture, are not about China looking back, reliving an old “China dream”, but looking forward and creating the conditions for the fourth stage of what Kim has articulated as the three transformations of the “evolving Asian system”.11 The fourth phase which China has begun with the BRI has given Asia’s new regionalism centre stage.

A Word of Caution

But China and its BRI partners will need to be mindful of four potential complications. The first issue relates to the adverse effects of geopolitical tensions, which could destabilise the whole project while also keeping potential investors away. Secondly, can China afford to spend the estimated $1.0 trillion needed for the very many planned projects? The question is does it have the resilience and the conviction, as well as the reserves, to be able to continue to prioritise the BRI without prejudicing its other priorities? Thirdly, can Beijing continue to promote and “sell” the BRI if and when local resistance forces its partner governments to stay commitment-neutral or be pressed to renegotiate terms of projects? And finally, how will China manage the resistance being raised in India, the United States, Japan and other quarters against this ambitious and Asia-changing Initiative? Can it avoid alienating these powerful actors while pressing ahead with the wide-ranging and multiple-geography projects which can have a transformatory impact on so many Asian and African countries? Can China build a new Eurasia in its own image without appearing to be wiping out the images imprinted on so much of Asia and Europe by the United States? These are searching questions and not ones that the Chinese leadership are unfamiliar with, but Beijing’s response will only become clear once one of its fast-moving projects hits the buffers; only then will we know if this massive investment initiative was worth the price.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, waves with leaders attending the Belt and Road Forum May 2017 © AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

About the Author

Professor Anoush Ehteshami is Professor of International Relations in the School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University. He is also the Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah Chair in International Relations and Director of the HH Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah Programme in International Relations, Regional Politics and Security. He is, further, Director of the Institute for Middle Eastern & Islamic Studies (IMEIS) at Durham, one of the oldest and noted centres of excellence in Middle Eastern studies in Europe.

References

1. He Yini. (2015). “China to Invest $900b in Belt and Road Initiative”, China Daily, 28 May.
2. Ibid.
3. Hedley Bull. (1977). The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1977), p. 13.
4. Joseph Grieco, G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastanduno. (2015). Introduction to International Relations: Enduring Questions and Contemporary Perspectives (New York, NY: Palgrave).
5. Boao Forum for Asia, 24 May 2016.
6. Bull, op. cit.
7. Suisheng Zhao, “Core Interests and Great Power Responsibilities: The Evolving Pattern of China’s Foreign Policy”, Xiaoming Huang and Robert G. Patman (eds) China and the International System: Becoming a World Power (New York, NY: Routledge, 2013), p. 53.
8. Jian Yang, “The Rise of China: Chinese Perspectives”’, in Kevin J. Cooney and Yoichiro Sato (eds) The Rise of China and International Security: America and Asia Respond (London: Routledge, 2009), pp. 13-37.
9. Chengxin Pan. (2012). Knowledge, Desire and Power in Global Politics: Western Representations of China’s Rise (Northampton, AM: Edward Elgar).
10. Suisheng Zhao. (2012). “China’s Foreign Policy as a Rising Power in the Early Twenty-First Century: The Struggle between Taoguangyanghui and Assertiveness”, in Hongyi Lai and Yiyi Lu (eds) China’s Soft Power and International Relations (New York, NY: Routledge), pp. 191-211.
11. Samuel S. Kim. (2014). “The Evolving Asian System: Three Transformations”, in David Shambaugh and Michael Yahuda (eds) International Relations of Asia (London: Rowman and Littlefield), pp. 33-58.

Green is Good: Revealing the Hidden Benefits of Sustainable Housing

By Trivess Moore, Ralph Horne, Yolande Strengers and Cecily Maller

Sustainable housing has wider environmental, social and wellbeing benefits which do not neatly fit into traditional economic considerations. Policy makers must adapt the way they develop minimum performance regulations if we are to move beyond the argument about capital costs and deliver a transition to low carbon housing.

 

Since the 1970s oil crises, energy efficiency has been on the agenda. Housing accounts for a sizeable chunk (10-25%) of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. Report after report suggests there is ample scope for cost-effective improvement through energy efficiency and renewable energy generation.

Yet, a commonly touted barrier to achieving these changes is the high cost of sustainable housing.1 Various vested interests claim that build and retrofit costs are high and savings are indeterminate. While the argument rages over cost-effectiveness, almost all sides seem to be missing the main game: There are a raft of other non-economic environmental, social and wellbeing benefits that make sustainable housing a more compelling and affordable policy response.

Housing accounts for a sizeable chunk (10-25%) of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. Report after report suggests there is ample scope for cost-effective improvement through energy efficiency and renewable energy generation.

In this article we discuss the arguments for and against increasing sustainability standards in housing performance, and point out the often unacknowledged benefits of sustainable housing through a mixed methods evaluation of a low-carbon housing development in Victoria, Australia.2 Our analysis makes the case for combining traditional Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) with other social science methods to reveal the true costs and benefits of sustainable housing.

 

Beyond Minimum Standards

Minimum standards based regulations specify building elements such as insulation levels, energy labelling of appliances, and the general specifications of building design and materials. Generally, building energy performance regulations focus on improving the building “skin” or thermal envelope, to reduce the energy required for heating and cooling. These regulations have seen increasing sustainability requirements over the past decade or two, but current minimum requirements are still significantly below the performance required to deliver low/zero energy housing.3 They have also been heavily criticised for the assumptions they make about how occupants use energy in the house and for not including technologies such as energy generation.

There are increasing examples of low/zero energy housing developments around the world such as Park Dale (Wakefield, UK)4 and Lochiel Park (Adelaide, Australia).5  These developments are demonstrating what is possible for new builds or retrofitting of existing dwellings. Moving from one off examples to mass production of low energy housing continues to be a significant challenge. In countries like Australia, the majority of new housing (and retrofits) is delivered to minimum regulatory requirements. Therefore, improving these regulations is critical to delivering improved sustainability across the residential sector.

Research is increasingly demonstrating a range economic, social and environmental benefits associated with low energy housing.

Arguments for improving building regulations, and in turn sustainable housing outcomes, often come down to the claim of additional capital costs related to any additional “sustainability” requirements. Even in the face of increasing evidence that low energy housing does not necessarily cost more upfront, the perception that it does is holding back regulatory development in the face of housing affordability challenges around the world.

However, the argument that sustainable housing adds an unreasonable capital cost to housing fails to consider the through-life benefits that such housing provides. Research is increasingly demonstrating a range economic, social and environmental benefits associated with low energy housing. For example, households living in sustainable housing have lower (or eliminated) energy bills which help control living costs and reduce the risk of energy poverty – an increasingly important outcome in the context of rapid utility price increases occurring around the world.6 There is also increasing research highlighting improved health and wellbeing outcomes from low energy housing such as reduced stress from paying energy bills, reduced temperature related health issues, and improved mental wellbeing.7 These benefits have been found to be even greater for low-income or vulnerable households.8

The problem is that policy makers increasingly require hard monetised benefits in, say, health care savings, if sustainable housing beyond minimum standards are to be justified. Without a defined economic cost, and with contingent, long-term or flow-on effects, such benefits are not easily captured in traditional policy making evaluative tools such as CBA. As a result, policy analysis often wrongly concludes that zero carbon housing is unaffordable.

If these wider benefits can be properly considered the justification for zero carbon housing becomes clearer. Our three-year, mixed-method evaluation of a small sustainable housing development in regional Victoria, Australia demonstrates these benefits.

Low-Carbon Housing Case Study

Commissioned by Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (a state government department in the southern part of Australia), our study of low-carbon housing used both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate housing policy, environmental performance and occupant wellbeing.

The Department received funding to build four two-bedroom, nine-star-rated (under the Australian National House Energy Rating Scheme – predicted heating and cooling energy load of 25 MJ/m2/year for climate zone 27), houses were built to maximise passive solar principles; achieving a performance level similar to the German Passivhaus standard. The design elements and technologies used included (partial) reverse brick-veneer construction, double-glazed windows, solar hot water, a 1.5-kilowatt solar photovoltaic system and a shared 5,000-litre rainwater tank. The houses were built without air conditioning but did have ceiling fans and gas heating in the living area.

We evaluated these low-energy houses against seven control houses built to Department standards, with a six-star NatHERS rating (predicted heating and cooling energy load of 108 MJ/m2/year). We also compared the results to a technical model of standard industry practice. We conducted a traditional cost-benefit analysis, technical performance analysis (utility consumption, internal temperature), three rounds of interviews with the householders during different seasons, and a personalised household sustainability assessment.

Through a traditional CBA lens, the low-energy housing was not financially viable. Even if the Department could capture the savings to the householders, payback was only achieved within 40 years for one of the four dwellings in a high-energy-price future. This was due to higher-than-expected capital costs for the sustainability initiatives.

This meant they could buy children Christmas presents, avoid personal debt and lay-by, or go on a holiday. Householders described how this led to reduced stress and better mental health.

However, this analysis did not include broader benefits. For example, resale value could be up to A$40,000 higher per unit. The technical performance analysis also identified significant benefits for the low-energy households illustrated through the qualitative research. Interviews with residents highlighted positive social outcomes supporting the technical data. The benefits they described included improved health and personal finances. For example, these householders said they had extra spending money due to low (or no) utility bills. One occupant told us:

Look, I haven’t paid any off my power bill in six months and I’m still in credit.

This meant they could buy children Christmas presents, avoid personal debt and lay-by, or go on a holiday. Householders described how this led to reduced stress and better mental health.

I do go clothes shopping on occasion now instead of thinking,“Oh God, I have to go and lay-by that.”

We found that these low-energy households:

• were A$1,000 a year better off because of reduced utility consumption (including solar feed-in tariff);
• purchased 45% less electricity than the control households (and 73% less than the standard industry practice);
• consumed 22% less water (30% less than the industry standard);
• had 40% less CO₂ environmental impact from power use (63% less than the industry standard); and
• were comfortable with the indoor temperature of their house for 10% more of the time (even without air conditioning) using adaptive thermal comfort criteria.

Extreme weather events magnified the comfort and health benefits. On a second consecutive day above 41 degrees Celsius, the nine-star houses were up to 16.6 degrees Celsius cooler (without air conditioning) compared to the Department’s standard six-star house (which had air conditioning). This meant householders could stay at home during heatwaves rather than needing to seek alternative accommodation, which happened sometimes for the control households. One low-energy occupant said:

…in summer I would sit down at the supermarket, you know, because it was cool … [Now] I can stay home and veg out.

The research demonstrated that the housing sector’s over-reliance on cost-benefit analysis may be overlooking important benefits (and detriments) of different housing arrangements. Combining qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods can help uncover a more detailed and complete picture of how housing affects people’s lives.

Our research also highlights how sustainable housing benefits extend beyond the environment. These flow-on effects can improve the living conditions of some of the most vulnerable members of society. This, in turn, potentially reduces pressure on health and other support systems and sectors.

 

Combining Sustainable and Affordable Housing

Our study is part of an emerging body of research that challenges the idea that sustainable housing is unaffordable. The evidence increasingly shows that sustainability and good design can improve affordability when non-monetised social, health and well-being benefits are considered, and when understandings of “affordability” move beyond capital costs.

Policy makers should be “valuing” sustainable housing in more innovative and pioneering ways. This does not necessarily mean we need to find a way to put an exact economic value on non-economic benefits within existing cost-benefit frameworks. Rather, as our case study demonstrates, other methods can be combined with traditional CBA approaches to improve evaluations of sustainable housing developments.

There is still a role for CBA to help inform policy development. However it is clear that relying solely on this method is failing to capture the extent of the benefits of low-energy housing. Policy makers must adapt the way they develop minimum performance regulations if we are to move beyond the argument about capital costs and deliver a transition to low carbon housing.

This article is based upon an article published by the authors in The Conversation on the 25th August 2016 which is available via

About the Authors

Trivess Moore is a Research Fellow at RMIT University’s Sustainable Building Innovation Lab (SBiLab) in the School of Property, Construction and Project Management. He has a strong research interest in socio-technical transitions to a low carbon urban future, with a focus on sustainable and liveable housing.

Ralph Horne is Professor of Geography and is Deputy Pro-Vice Chancellor, Research and Innovation for the College of Design and Social Context at RMIT University, and Director of the Cities Programme, the urban arm of the United Nations Global Compact.

Yolande Strengers is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University, where she co-leads the Beyond Behaviour Change research program. Her research is grounded in sociology and geography; it seeks to understand socio-technical change, and possibilities for intervening in everyday life to achieve sustainability outcomes.

Cecily Maller is Vice-Chancellor’s Senior Research Fellow at RMIT University’s Centre for Urban Research. She is co-leader of the Beyond Behaviour Change Research Program and a lead researcher for the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub funded by the Australian Government.

References

1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.11.084
2.
3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2013.12.003
4
5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2014.12.372
6
7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.02.005
8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2016.1139906

US-China Ties in the Shadow of the Mueller Investigation

By Dan Steinbock                                        

In the foreseeable future, the Trump administration will be constrained by the special counsel’s Russia investigation. How will it impact the White House’s relations with China?

It was a strange month. First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), who the centre-right Democrats blame for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 electoral loss. In turn, the centre-left Sanders-supporters attribute the loss to Hillary Clinton’s gross abuse of public office and funds, Bill Clinton’s corrupt Global Initiative, collusion with the Democratic Leadership Committee (DLC) and mainstream media.

Barely a week later, the DOJ appointed Robert Mueller, former director of the FBI (2001-13), as special counsel overseeing the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton claimed she was “right” about the “vast Russia conspiracy”.

Of course, there is little doubt about the ultimate outcome of the Mueller investigation. He served loyally under President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. So from the Trump White House perspective, the end is pretty much known. It is the process that has potential to undermine his presidency.

But what will happen to Trump’s ties with China as White House begins its fight for political survival? The short answer is that those areas of the Trump agenda that require legislation (e.g., tax reforms) will remain more vulnerable to direct and indirect constraints associated with the Mueller investigation. In contrast, those areas of his agenda, which can be implemented mainly through executive action (e.g., trade policy), will be less exposed to such constraints. Finally, those areas of the agenda that are somewhere between executive and legislative action may prove easier to implement as well (e.g., sanctions).

Commercial ties with China

During the 2016 campaign, Trump threatened to use high import tariffs against nations that have a significant trade surplus with the US, particularly China ($347 billion), Japan ($69 billion), Germany ($65 billion), Mexico ($63 billion), and Canada ($11 billion). Nevertheless, trade pragmatism prevailed in the Mar-a-Lago meeting, where Trump and President Xi Jinping announced a 100-day plan to improve strained trade ties and boost cooperation between two nations. But if the plan cannot offer major breakthroughs after the summer, trade hawks may return and deficit rhetoric could escalate toward the year-end.

Right after his inauguration day, just as he had pledged, President Trump used executive order to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), President Obama’s legacy deal. In his campaign, Trump had promised to renegotiate key US free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Indeed, as trade policy relies mainly on executive action, the administration may try to renegotiate deals rather than to reject them, if only to minimise the downside risk.

The positive spin has already been introduced. As US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, puts it, the administration will not seek to “overturn” NAFTA trade but to “expand” it. NAFTA renegotiations are set to start soon. When the talks begin after mid-August, they will be followed closely by other bilateral trade agreements that will soon be on the table (South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan). Since negotiations are likely to endure through the fall, major trade friction that would undermine global growth prospects may not be likely until 2018.

The proposed tax reforms are a different story. Mueller’s investigation is likely to overshadow Trump efforts at tax overhaul, which relies on legislative consensus and the perceived strength of the Trump administration. Yet, legislative support will be challenging in the current conditions, and the administration’s staying power is now subject to both counsel’s investigation and political speculation.

Mueller’s investigation is likely to overshadow Trump efforts at tax overhaul, which relies on legislative consensus and the perceived strength of the Trump administration.

Moreover, even if the Trump plan could reduce US corporate rates significantly, that might not be adequate to “reshore” US companies’ overseas profits and corporate operations. There has been no major outflux of foreign firms from large emerging economies, which offer 3-4 times faster growth than the US or Europe.

Fiscal policy requires consensus among the Senate, House and Executive branch of the government, which are internally divided and externally under extensive scrutiny. In the long run, inadequate fiscal support could undermine Trump’s huge $1 trillion infrastructure initiative, affecting the dollar and import growth – and thus the Chinese renminbi, Chinese exports and investment.

Strategic ties with China

Recently, a US Navy destroyer sailed close to a disputed South China Sea island controlled by China. It was the first time under President Trump. Intriguingly, USS Dewey’s “freedom of navigation” (FON) operations were timed right after China and ASEAN agreed to draft a code of conduct in the South China, which has potential to reduce the risk of military clashes in one of the world’s busiest waterways.

As Trump hopes to launch a Reagan-style military rearmament program, some observers expect him to push assertive military measures around the world. However, they may ignore the fact that the “America First” program is focused on domestic priorities, as evidenced by Trump’s tougher stance against German trade surpluses and EU members’ “free riding” behind the US-funded NATO.

Since sanctions and other economic coercive measures fall under executive actions, Trump’s strategic maneuverability is less restricted in these areas. Then again, both Republican neoconservatives and Democratic liberal internationalists support sanctions against North Korea, and, with some qualifications, against Iran.

North Korea’s nuclear blackmail is strongly opposed by the White House and objectionable in Beijing as well. In the case of Russia, sanctions will prevail and possibly broaden. Trump’s reset efforts are likely to remain frozen through the special counsel’s investigation and more challenging to implement after that investigation. In the case of Iran, Trump is likely to push sanctions outside the nuclear deal as far as possible, which will be cheered by Iran’s hardliners who oppose the recently re-elected moderate President Hassan Rouhani.

Nevertheless, Trump’s hard stance is in line with his rearmament program and closer ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Israel and particularly Saudi Arabia with which he recently signed a huge $110 billion weapons deal.

The Pandora’s Box

As far as the White House is concerned, the Mueller investigation may well undermine Trump’s most ambitious strategic goal: the Russia reset. As he pledged in 2016, Trump has sought, publicly and privately, an anti-terrorism coalition with President Putin. At each stage of the talks, the mainstream media’s “Russiagate” narrative – allegations that Trump himself or his “associates” have been treasonously compromised by the Kremlin, and for which no actual evidence has yet been produced – “has intervened in ways that jeopardise, if not sabotage, the diplomatic process”, as veteran Russia expert Stephen F. Cohen has noted.

Seeking to revive his stalled policy agenda in Congress, Trump is developing his “war room” within the White House to combat leaks, disclosures and the investigation about his associates and Russia. That means the return of his toughest and most confrontational campaign aides, including former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, deputy manager David N. Bossie and, of course, chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, his rough radical-right champion.

If necessary, the war room could go offensive. Since the 1990s, Bossie has used the darkest Clinton controversies to battle both Bill and Hillary Clinton and, when warranted, could resort to the controversial “nuclear card,” which rests on the controversial Wikileaks disclosures and associated testimonies, to steer public spotlight toward the gross abuse of public funds by the Clintons, Democratic leadership, and the 2016 deaths of Democratic operatives who were hoping to testify against such abuses and corruption before their odd deaths (including Seth Rich, Shawn Lucas, John Ashe and Victor Thorn).

If necessary, the war room could go offensive.

Historically, the appointment of special counsel has often been accompanied by unintended consequences and collateral damage. The Mueller investigation is not likely to be an exception. When necessary, Trump’s war room will resort to offensive actions that will drag into the daylight the darker side of the Democratic leadership. As a result, America’s international clout, which has eroded almost two decades, may suffer new, more extensive, even irreparable harm.

Since the Mueller investigation is likely to slow down those parts of the Trump agenda that require legislative support, it may well steer the administration’s interest toward bold, executive actions. As long as the White House and Beijing can concentrate on cooperation, the constrained focus could take the bilateral ties on a new, broader level faster than anticipated. However, if cooperative benefits are seen as inadequate in the White House, Beijing or both, the result could be a challenging lose-lose scenario. Consequently, failure in US-Chinese talks is not an option.

The original commentary was released by China-US Focus on June 9, 2017.

About the Author

Dan Steinbock is the Founder of Difference Group and has served as Research Director of International Business at the India China and America Institute (US) and a Visiting Fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net

Corporate Scandals – Cauldrons of Spilt Trust

By Douglas Bryson & Glyn Atwal

Trust is a big word. In this article, the authors elaborate on the elements and issues around corporate scandals, the breakage of trust, and how all these are anchored on brand identity.

It could be argued, if corporations were actually people, it’s the brand that is the soul of the organisation. It is more than just made up “marketing glue” which holds the organisation together – it helps to define the corporate “personality” and conveys symbolic and emotional connections with others. Norms of interpersonal behaviour are often applied as the relationship develops between individuals and brands. Individuals develop trust and loyalty with some brands, while remaining cautiously wary of others. Thus, everyone has their own circle of trusted brands. And obviously, not everyone will like or trust a brand, furthermore, sometimes that is not even a brand’s objective.

However, when it is the objective to have more than just a market transaction, and a brand relationship sours, there are occasionally extraordinary scandals. “Triggered” critics are quick to anger, stir the pot and heat up a cauldron of anti-brand sentiment. As sorcerers of yore, they point their elongated fingers at those “manipulative professional marketers” for duping the less judicious portion of the public as to the “real nature of corporations”, i.e. vehicles of mass exploitation, often for the profit of invisible shareholders and ultimately at the expense of Mr. or Ms. Anybody, or Mother Nature. There is an undertone of an “I told you so” factor, that brands should not be trusted or anthropomorphised. Brands that attract this damaging sort of attention are categorised as malevolent. Recovery can be a long and arduous venture for the brand, if redemption is possible at all.

Anti-brand sentiment is no longer an extreme, but it’s evolved into a mainstream phenomenon, facilitated by near instantaneous communication via the web and the widespread use of social media.

There exists a wide diversity of groups that have prepared well-rehearsed mantras of criticism that include environmentalist organisations targetting energy companies and all sorts of polluters and industrial scale exploiters of the natural world, there are anti-capitalists waging wars foremost against large corporations and private financial institutions, and anti-globalists taking on global brands such as Starbucks or McDonald’s or any firm that homogenises or reduces the cultural diversity within human societies.

Increasingly, anti-brand sentiment is no longer an extreme, but it’s evolved into a mainstream phenomenon, facilitated by near instantaneous communication via the web and the widespread use of social media. Brand failures and scandals progressively seem to be omnipresent. The string of recent and high-profile corporate scandals, including Rolls-Royce, Uber, Wells Fargo, Wargaming, Volkswagen and United Airlines are not country or industry specific. Each scandal has its very own dynamic, yet a worrying common factor is that stakeholders – customers, shareholders, and media amongst others – are willing to generously “punish” the company for what is widely deemed as irresponsible or anti-social behaviour. The companies that were loudest at verbalising their “human” side of their contributions to society are the companies that suffer from the most backlash. We see these examples as brands that have failed with fundamental breaches of trust. They have spilt this precious resource given to them by customers that were led to believe there was a social side to the company, but they saw, quickly and suddenly, that the mask dropped. Perceptions of companies that were thought to respect social norms of behaviour, were abruptly fractured when customers saw or even only heard of an event that placed maximised profits before people. The perceived social relationship is shattered and brands remain as vacant symbols of companies that are transaction driven, “cold hearted” and acting in the manner opposite to which it signalled to the public. Concurrently, social media has dramatically lowered the cost to the individual of seeking what used to be considered “irrational” revenge – irrational because it cost so much to get satisfaction. Interestingly, now it doesn’t even have to be the “wronged” party to set off revenge seeking behaviour designed to chastise the brand or cause it financial harm.

It is now so easy to get payback against a brand that misbehaves that following that so-called irrational path of human nature is easier than at any time in history. So the irrational seems much less so. It has in fact become a rational manner to control companies’ indiscretions. Behavioural economists explain revenge seeking behaviour as a socially adaptive phenomenon whereby probable severe punishment for violation of trust keeps potential perpetrators from breaking that trust. Thus social norms exist in interactions and keeping the trust leads to maintaining society in good order. We suggest that the threat of punishment of brands has swung more towards a degree of certainty in major cases, as a result of mobile telephone and social media technologies. Now revenge against a brand is conceivably minutes away from a breach of trust, a blunder or a mere act of human behaviour by a brand representative that has been interpreted as an intentional affront by a customer. Further, once the revenge seeking behaviour is started, other social media users reverberate and at times even amplify negative messages about the brand. The brand loses its costly “humanised” personality. The unpleasant face of a straight out money transaction replaces it.

#Boycottunited

This public reaction sent shockwaves through Wall Street that sensed that the scandal could lead to wider financial ramifications. Nearly $1 billion was temporarily wiped off the company’s market value.

A perfect example of this is the recent case of United Airlines. When a passenger was filmed being forcibly and violently (with blood) removed from an overbooked aircraft, the brand was almost immediately under intense, public scrutiny. Conversations about United quickly dominated social media and unsurprisingly, online commentary expressed very negative sentiments and a form of rapacious attack developed, sparked by collective outrage and a shared desire to punish the brand. #Boycottunited was just one of many hashtags which characterised the intensity of public outrage in this case. This public reaction sent shockwaves through Wall Street that sensed that the scandal could lead to wider financial ramifications. Nearly $1 billion was temporarily wiped off the company’s market value.

Disturbing video was first sent via social media within minutes of the incident by other passengers on the flight, igniting the media firestorm which continued in the public domain by popular network US talk show hosts, such as Jimmy Kimmel, who were quick to mock the airline. Even President Donald Trump was reported to have called the incident “horrible” in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. What had appeared to be a miserably handled, isolated incident had now attracted the attention of US policymakers. The United Airlines Chief Executive Officer Oscar Munoz was asked to attend a congressional hearing.

It was in effect a corporate crisis spun well beyond control; a domino effect exists that unexpectedly placed the company and its brand on the defensive and in financial peril. United Airlines had spent millions of dollars on a slick brand advertising campaign: “Fly the friendly skies”, and was now under the spotlight of a hostile public, viscerally revolted by what was perceived as a brand created by lying marketers spinning lies to hide the real company motive – maximising profit. Now many wonder, how can customers and potential customers “un-see” the video of a bloodied passenger being forced to debark the intentionally overbooked plane so that United employees in transit could have seats?

Some Internet users even posted new suggested slogans for United Airlines to replace their brand’s slogan with, for example “Deals that can’t be beat, passengers that can…” or “We put the hospital in hospitality.” These weren’t only typical long-standing anti-brand activists, but ordinary people who were using social media space to let off steam and make their views and opinions public. They also felt the betrayal of the promised social norms, such as being treated with dignity, by an economic decision that is trivial in the eyes of almost anybody witness to the event. One very public incident had an extensive impact on the trust people had had in the brand. The cauldron of trust boiled over with all of the heated criticism and spilt due to a hyper reactive market. No longer will people be flying “friendly skies” with United Airlines. Loyalty, trust and understanding have been replaced by a dollar amount for a specific service.

Internal Intangible Losses

“Experts” were quick to calculate the immediate economic cost for United Airlines, as is done with other companies that experience a fall in sales and decreased stock market value following a corporate crisis. However, this adjusted stock price fails to take into account many of the intangibles that impact corporate viability. Markets often do not behave as classical economists would like people to believe; at times their models fail to bear a resemblance to reality. The rise of the relatively new field of behavioural economics attempts to explain why people often fail to react in the manner long predicted by classical economics. Trust and reputational impact after brand failure of many high-profile brands can be felt for many years, or even prove fatal; it is just too difficult to know if trust can ever be regained, if customers can be convinced to remain or if trust is even needed. Guestimates are nonetheless attempted as many economists stick to their assumptions, dogmas and their calculus.

Nevertheless, for companies such as United Airlines, there are also the internal “human costs” that are likewise as significant as the diminished customer trust, loyalty and loss in reputation. Surprisingly, this is an omission in the business press commentary. We refer the “internal human cost” as to the loss of employee trust in, and commitment to the employing company. A public crisis might lead to a massive spiral downturn in employee morale and can leave employees angry, disoriented and demoralised. Employees at every level within the organisation can feel that senior management has let them down. For example, Volkswagen took the decision to cut 30,000 jobs in order to generate cost savings in light of the “Dieselgate” emissions scandal. It is no wonder that employees are left asking, “Why should we honest and hard-working employees pay the price for the blunders of our superiors?” Employee discontent and ultimately disenfranchisement can have an irreversible impact beyond lost productivity, but also affect key performance indicators such as innovation, loyalty, motivation to provide superior customer service, and turnover intention.

Fundamentally, customers and potential customers need to know who they are doing business with. Further, employees need to know as well. People need to know that the brand image will match the brand behaviour. Take the example of Ryanair, a low-cost airline based in Ireland. Customers are given close to no service at all. It is known to be a no frills airline; everything that can be charged as an extra, will be charged as an extra. This poses no long term problem because Europeans do not expect more from a Ryanair brand flight than an unassigned seat. Ryanair’s website focusses on cheap flights. Booking a ticket will reveal the minimum you will actually pay. You will be charged for any baggage excess and check-in agents are predictably not the sympathetic type. However, this does not harm the brand – it is just a brand of pure market transaction, not one with the social norms of trust and loyalty for superior and friendly service.

Beyond Textbook Solutions

Public relations experts often propose “off the shelf” advice on how to deal with the immediate fallout of corporate scandals, often providing minor tailoring to post-crisis campaigns in order to attempt to rebuild the reputation of the brand. We believe that very often these so-called “text-book” solutions are in fact far too superficial; as a marketing tactic, it is similar to using a “Band-Aid” for a broken limb, or searching for a limb that was never there. Yes, some campaigns might help to reposition the brand or at least change the conversation, but consumers are on their guard if relationships have been damaged. As with companies accused of “greenwashing”, consumers can easily detect a “Public Relations Redemption” campaign that arouses the impression of a company’s efforts at brand image salvation.

With hindsight, we have the luxury of suggesting that in the first instance executives need to take a few steps back and consider how to prevent scandals from starting. First of all, employees should be explicitly taught which social norms are being communicated and followed with customers in relation to that brand and to understand precisely what it means to break the trust if that is applicable. This understanding should guide their on-the-job behaviours. In some companies, this might involve a radical and fundamental shift in management mentality as well. There are decisions to be made regarding social norm driven relationships and brand personalities, and purely economic market driven perspectives where brands are just labels. This is simply a branding fundamental truth that is not always clear.

Failed leadership and communication about what the brand stands for provides a blind spot for employees. We suggest this is where most scandals have their roots.

It is fair to assert that no company of repute is immune from a damning corporate scandal, especially those that have chosen to build a friendly brand personality. These come with their hot cauldrons of trust, ready to spill and scald those involved in the scandal or worse. All executives need to be clear that there is a false belief that scandals are for other companies. This means that executives and managers need to closely examine internal communications within their own organisation. We suggest this is where most scandals have their roots. Failed leadership and communication about what the brand stands for provides a blind spot for employees.

We have identified three closely related questions that need to be addressed, devised following lessons from management theory and highlighted by recent corporate scandals. We believe providing top down leadership in these areas will dramatically reduce the risk of corporate blunders occurring, such as those that have plagued United Airlines, amongst others.

Do You Have the Right Corporate Culture?

Corporate culture is not a new idea. It refers to the instilled employee work related value system, which leads to appropriate decision-making and ultimately employee behaviour. Yet it is surprising how many top managers blindly ignore its importance. Strong corporate cultures are more reliable in determining the employees’ red line between what is deemed as being acceptable and ethical for internal and external stakeholders. For example, Samsung was under immense competitive pressure to counterattack the unshakable success of Apple’s iPhone. Did excessive time pressure cultivate a “work culture of negligence” which led to a premature market launch and recall of the now infamous exploding Galaxy Note 7? Then there are companies driven to extremes in search of growth. Volkswagen was resolute to become the world’s biggest car manufacturer and identified the US diesel vehicle market as a market growth opportunity. Executives were evaluated on meeting ambitious growth targets. Did this instil a culture of “growth at all costs” at Volkswagen that resulted into the diesel emission scandal? In a similar disposition, Wells Fargo’s incentive structure had put excessive value on bank retail employees meeting aggressive sales targets. Did a culture of “results at all costs” lead to the opening of two million fake bank and credit card accounts?

The Volkswagen emissions scandal started on 18 September 2015 when the US Environmental Protection Agency found that Volkswagen had intentionally programmed turbocharged direct injection (TDI) diesel engines to activate some emissions controls only during laboratory emissions testing. 

Executives certainly need to cultivate a strong corporate culture that considers long-term results, but a deeper examination of corporate values, their nature, focusses and priorities, might avoid the scalds that the company suffers when employees misstep due to unreasonable, poorly prioritised or conflicting values as signalled by managers. This failure results into employees bumbling, acting irresponsibly and damaging the brand. Executives need to explicitly question whether goals regarding relationships with society and customers, methods and results are not driven by short-term objectives. Brands that survive have the most potential to add value, and the corporate culture needs to be clear and sustainable. Obviously, this is an issue that must be negotiated with other stakeholders, particularly investors who may exert pressure for companies to deliver immediate returns. Employees need to know what the overall long-term values of the company are, and this means CEOs need to ensure the appropriate corporate culture is encouraged at all levels of the organisation.

Do You Have Managers or Leaders, or Both?

This is also very much tied in with the corporate culture in that the answer sets the tone of communication throughout the organisation. Strong leadership is undoubtedly essential for an organisation’s success. However, this is too often misinterpreted as a top-down chain of command in which open communication across management hierarchies, ideas, dissent and grievances are uncommon or even absent. We and many others argue that effective leadership in a hierarchy requires a different set of behaviours. Employees look for guidance on desired behaviours and shared values from superiors. This basic idea, that leadership is more than management, and includes communication by setting the appropriate examples for values and behaviours is indeed taught in business schools, but despite this, all too often it is punished in actual practice. Ingrained corporate hierarchies often stifle natural leadership growth and ignore the important roles of coaching and mentoring.

Leaders need not only to embody the values of the organisation, but seek to communicate, and seek to receive different perspectives within a climate of mutual respect.

Clearly, leaders have to do more than merely meet financial objectives. Managers can do that. Leaders need not only to embody the values of the organisation, but seek to communicate, and seek to receive different perspectives within a climate of mutual respect. A leadership style that remains “open”, i.e. one that rejects the discussion stopping statement “I know”, as opposed to “closed”, will ensure that issues are not only openly communicated but improve the level and quality of overall decision-making. Well, this is how the theory goes and it is largely based on relatively flexible military, hierarchical organisations dating from World War II.

Obviously, executives need a more sophisticated palate that has been developed since the 1940s which also considers backgrounds such as national context(s), industrial context, organisational role, size, employees’ skill sets, teamwork requirements, and numerous other variables specific to the leader’s purview. However, after a detailed analysis of each case has been made, we suggest the question is posed: “Do you have managers or leaders, or both?”

Do You Have Effective Checks and Balances?

In order to avoid crises, solid corporate governance is needed. This requires a range of “hardwired” checks and balances to order to be effective. For example, US and UK companies rely on a single board of directors to hold management to account. This in theory should ensure oversight of corporate social responsibility and compliance to an ethics charter. However, all of this can only be possible if the board of directors has the authority to enforce oversight activities, which also implies that boards should not become too lackadaisical in their role or too trusting of incumbent top management. Corporate “cosiness” has often been one reason cited when directors have failed to act on potential or actual wrongdoings. A greater emphasis on the diversity and an increase in the number of independent directors can also act as a safeguard and help to ensure scrutiny is sufficient and items requiring action will seriously be dealt with.

Employees need to be empowered to report wrongdoings in a way that will never hamper their career development.

However, good governance needs to be integral to all organisational policies and procedures. Although legal complexities continue to muddle the legal status of “whistle-blowers”, corporations need to recognise that these individuals are an asset to staying on the safe end of critical issues. Since they are on the front-line, best placed to find problems, they should be safe in their jobs to “red flag” potential or actual illegal or unethical activities, which if not caught early, might boil over with time. As cliché as it sounds, employees need more than encouragement. They need to be empowered to report wrongdoings in a way that will never hamper their career development. If ever an employee is harmed when trying to help maintain legal or ethical compliance, it goes without saying that all future transactions will not be based on societal norms, such as trust and loyalty, but they become economic transactions where any really dangerous legal or ethical violations are somehow “not noticed”. Ask yourself “what price you would charge your employer to be held back in your career, passed over for promotions and raises, or even let go for no apparent reason?” Clearly, that price will never be paid – who would ask for it? – thus, the function of whistle-blower would never be fulfilled.

Corporations with a positive whistle-blower policy are also likely to value and exhibit a more “openly communicative” corporate culture. Suppression of whistle-blower behaviour can only send mixed messages, or worse, about company legal and ethical compliance. For example, the Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley of Barclays has faced immense pressure over his attempts to go against company policy and unmask a “whistle-blower” at the bank. Ultimately, the whistle-blower remains safely protected, while Staley has been investigated and reprimanded by the bank. CEOs do not walk on water in serious companies with healthy corporate cultures.

Staying Cool and Keeping the Trust

While every “known” company or brand is increasingly susceptible to a rapidly developing scandal, we argue that if organisations are equipped with the right set of values framed in a strong corporate culture, led and managed appropriately for the organisational context, they are more likely to be able to prevent scandals through the very act of being transparent and behaving as they suggest they will. The value congruence of the corporate brand’s personality, with the organisational culture and actual actions, are keys in keeping the cauldron of trust cool, avoiding crises, scandals and scalds. To act otherwise rapidly opens the door to communication failures within and outside of the company. When people don’t know how to interact with a brand, they will at the very least likely avoid it.

Featured Image: CEO Oscar Munoz testifies before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee about oversight of US airline customer service. Photo Coutesy: http://www.cnbc.com

About the Authors

Douglas Bryson is Professor (Titulaire 1) at Rennes School Business, France. His expertise focusses on Research Methods & Data Analysis, Consumer Behaviour and International Brand Management. Prior to switching to academia, Douglas worked for the Department of National Defense, Maritime Command, in Canada.

 

Glyn Atwal is Associate Professor of Marketing at Burgundy School of Business, an international Graduate School of the French network of Grandes Ecoles. His teaching, research, and consultancy expertise focusses on Brand Management. Prior to academia, Glyn worked for Saatchi & Saatchi, Young & Rubicam, and Publicis.

The Trump White House Under Siege

By Dan Steinbock                                          

Washington is planning to extend sanctions against Russia, once again. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is getting ready to cope with a special counsel’s investigation which seems to focus as much on Trump as Russia.

Last Wednesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that Congress should not pass any legislation that would undercut “constructive dialogue” with Russia. Yet, the Senate voted 97-2 to advance a bipartisan agreement to launch new financial penalties on Russia and to let the Congress intervene before President Trump can lift sanctions. Afterwards, Trump tweeted that he is the subject of the “single greatest WITCH HUNT in American political history”, and one that he said is being led by “some very bad and conflicted people”.

Trump’s frustration originated from reports that the White House is under scrutiny over whether it obstructed justice, while his aides struggled to deflect questions about the probe and Vice President Pence hired a private lawyer to handle fallout from investigations into Russian election meddling.

What’s going on?

Regime Change

As I argued in spring 2016 (The World Financial Review, April 25, 2016), US election is a global risk and it would continue to be fought long after the Trump election win. In May, these political struggles moved to an entirely new phase. For months, top Republicans held off from backing tougher financial penalties against Russia in a bid to permit the Trump administration to improve the US-Russia relationship, which soured badly under the Obama administration.

But the backlash ensued. First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), reportedly only days after his request for increased resources to investigate Russia’s alleged interference in the election. A week later, DOJ appointed Robert Mueller, former director of the FBI (2001-13) as special counsel overseeing the investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Mueller is unlikely to treat any Russian initiative – whether planned, unintended, alleged, or misrepresented – with silk gloves.

Both fired FBI Director Comey and special Russia-gate prosecutor Mueller have long histories as pliable political operatives, as ex-FBI official Coleen Rowley put it recently. “Mueller was chosen as Special Counsel not because he has integrity but because he will do what the powerful want him to do”, she says. It was Rowley’s 2002 memo to then-FBI Director Mueller that exposed the FBI’s pre-9/11 failures.

Indeed, there is little doubt about the political outcome of the investigation. Mueller is unlikely to treat any Russian initiative – whether planned, unintended, alleged, or misrepresented – with silk gloves.

In practice, Mueller seems more likely to go after Trump himself. Reportedly, he is already investigating Trump’s inner circle for “possible financial crimes” (Washington Post), “money laundering” and “financial payoff” from Russian officials (New York Times). Discrediting the messenger to distract attention from the message is the old practice by the “deep state”, say the critics.

New Cold War

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations between Russia and the US remained generally warm until the US-inspired “shock therapy” caused Russia an economic nightmare that proved far worse than the Great Depression in the US. That’s also when three former Soviet satellites – Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – were invited to join the NATO. By mid-90s, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states were also ushered into NATO.

In 2001, President George W. Bush wanted to reset US Russia relations, until 9/11, unilateral foreign policy, US incursions into Afghanistan, withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and invasion of Iraq. Meanwhile, NATO began looking further eastward to Ukraine and Georgia, which Moscow saw as intrusions into its sphere of interest, along with US efforts to gain access to Central Asian oil and natural gas.

In his campaign trail, Trump spoke for friendlier relations with Russia. Meanwhile, FBI began investigating alleged connections between his aids and pro-Russian interests.

Like Clinton and Bush initially, President Obama wanted to reset US-Russia relations and by March 2010 both countries agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals. The reset was not supported by Obama’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and subsequently rising tensions in Crimea were seized to bury the effort.

In his campaign trail, Trump spoke for friendlier relations with Russia. Meanwhile, FBI began investigating alleged connections between his aids and pro-Russian interests. In January 2017, Trump and Putin began phone conferences as the White House mulled lifting economic sanctions against Russia. But in February, Trump’s security adviser Michael Flynn was forced to resign. Only two months later, Secretary of State Tillerson said that US-Russia relations were at a new low point. The appointment of the special counsel was the last nail in the coffin.

In the coming months, those areas of the Trump agenda that require legislation (e.g. tax reforms) remain more vulnerable to constraints associated with the investigation. Whereas those areas of Trump’s agenda, which can be implemented mainly through executive action (e.g. trade policy), will be less exposed to such constraints. Finally, those areas of the agenda that are somewhere between executive and legislative action may prove easier to implement as well (e.g. sanctions).

Beware of Unintended Consequences

In the final analysis, the effort at Trump’s impeachment rests on the Wolfowitz Doctrine, a highly controversial policy blueprint developed amid the end of the Cold War by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz, the prophet of the Bush neoconservatives, and his deputy Scooter Libby, later an adviser to Vice President Cheney until his indictment.

When in 1989, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and US President George H. W. Bush declared the Cold War over, in exchange for “iron-clad guarantees” the NATO would not expand “one inch eastward”, neoconservatives began to push Eastern Europe in the US orbit. They were inspired by the Wolfowitz Doctrine that announced the US’s status as the world’s only remaining superpower, which cannot tolerate the “re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union”.

Since 2001, this doctrine has legitimised several wars in the Middle East, while undermining the efforts of post-Cold War presidents to reset relations with Russia.

Unlike his precursors, Trump is fighting back. He has established his “war room” within the White House to combat leaks, disclosures and the investigation about his associates and Russia. If necessary, the war room could go offensive, by steering spotlight to the Clintons’ gross abuse of public funds, the Democratic leadership, and suspicious deaths of several Democratic operatives who were hoping to testify against such abuses.

Historically, the appointment of special counsel has often been accompanied by unintended consequences and collateral damage. Unfortunately, what happens in Washington is not likely to stay in Washington. The repercussions will be global.

The original commentary was released by The Manila Times on June 19, 2017

About the Author

Dan Steinbock is the Founder of Difference Group and has served as Research Director of International Business at the India China and America Institute (US) and a Visiting Fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net

Behind the London Tower Block Fire Which Left Many Dead, Injured and Displaced

By Abayomi Azikiwe

People of colour, the working class and poor have been negatively impacted by British economic and housing policy. In this article, the author discusses the recent Grenfell Tower Fire, the unheard complaints of past residents turned victims, and the economic and social implications behind the tragedy.

Authorities in London, England announced on June 19 that 79 deaths have been officially recorded resulting from a fire which quickly swept through the Grenfell housing complex in North Kensington on June 13-14.

Immediately after the fire erupted many media outlets began to raise serious questions about the level of safety and preparedness inside the building.

Residents through their organisations had complained for several years about concerns related to the lack of sprinklers, fire alarms and effective maintenance of the structure. Apparently these complaints were not addressed by the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea (RBKC) Council which is said to be the owners of the flats.

Hundreds of residents and their supporters attempted to storm the RBKC Council proceedings on June 16 demanding answers to their questions. The doors of the building where the Council was meeting were locked as demonstrators rallied outside.

Residents through their organisations had complained for several years about concerns related to the lack of sprinklers, fire alarms and effective maintenance of the structure.

Residents and their family members who were interviewed by the press spoke to the abject failure of the owners and the Kensington and Chelsea Tenant Management Organisation which was supposed to oversee the conditions in the building. These entities did not provide proper fire prevention and rescue operation protocols at Grenfell Towers. After the fire started some residents reported that they were instructed by municipal employees to remain within the building.

Nonetheless, hundreds of the residents were able to escape without being severely injured. Others remain in hospital with some under critical care.

 

 

Later people rendered homeless went to makeshift relief centres seeking food, clothing, water, blankets and counselling. Volunteers from throughout the community donated supplies and food to the affected residents.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan visited the area of the fire the following day and was met with loud protests by residents and community members. The criticism centred on the absence of information related to transitional housing, clothing and food. Other concerns voiced by residents were the desire of many who were burned out that they could remain in the same neighbourhood. Impacted tenants felt that these issues were not satisfactorily addressed by municipal and national governmental officials.

British Prime Minister Theresa May was admonished as well for failing to meet with residents and their families. She did visit the fire scene however the prime minister only spoke with firefighters and the police. Later she visited some of the injured victims in hospital.

Eyewitnesses, Community Organisations and Experts Blame Authorities for Disaster

Even the state-sponsored British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) could not conceal or minimise the culpability of the municipal officials in creating the conditions for the fire and subsequent deaths. Although North Kensington is considered a high-income area of London undergoing rapid gentrification, there are still large numbers of marginalised residents many of whom are from people of colour communities with heritages in Africa, the Caribbean, South Asia, and the Middle East.

This racialised aspect of the disaster at Grenfell Tower became evident to readers and viewers of the media since a disproportionate number of people being interviewed were from nationally oppressed groups and the lower rungs of the working class. Anger is burgeoning among these groups who are saying the fire, its swift expansion, and the resulting injuries and deaths, were unnecessary. The general consensus is that if adequate safety precautions had been taken the fire may have never started or been confined to a small area of the housing block.

The channelling of marginalised and oppressed groups into what is called “social housing” in Britain is clearly a manifestation of the class and racial oriented approach to urban planning that permeates London and other major cities.

According to a post on the Grenfell Action Group website hours after the fire erupted, it says: “Watching breaking news about the Grenfell Tower fire catastrophe. Too soon (5am) to even guess at numbers of casualties and fatalities. Our heartfelt and sincere condolences (go out) to all who have perished, to the injured, to those who are bereaved or are still searching for missing loved ones. Regular readers of this blog will know that we have posted numerous warnings in recent years about the very poor fire safety standards at Grenfell Tower and elsewhere in RBKC. ALL OUR WARNINGS FELL ON DEAF EARS and we predicted that a catastrophe like this was inevitable and just a matter of time.”1

The channelling of marginalised and oppressed groups into what is called “social housing” in Britain is clearly a manifestation of the class and racial oriented approach to urban planning that permeates London and other major cities. Many of these social housing complexes are located in ageing buildings which have been refurbished in recent years utilising substandard materials creating a tinderbox.

Experts have cited the use of cladding at Grenfell Tower as a possible cause of the rapid spread of the fire. With this being a 24-story building firefighters did not have the equipment to reach the higher levels of the structure leaving people helpless in the face of imminent death.

Although higher-income housing developments are within the same general area as Grenfell Tower, the safety of the poor and working class residents are not treated with the same sense of urgency and necessity. Despite the fact that residents had repeatedly expressed their fears related to structural problems within the block no serious efforts by the municipal authorities were enacted.

Bloomberg, one of the world’s most widely-read financial publications, admitted in a report written by Leonid Bershidsky on the tragedy at Grenfell Tower that: “As in much of Europe, the use of tower blocks as public housing in the UK began in the 1950s with a decision to provide public subsidies based on building height. The 1965 Housing Subsidy Act spawned 4,500 tower blocks by 1979. It wasn’t a great idea for a lot of social reasons. By the end of the 1970s, a growing body of research showed that the social alienation of living in a high-rise increased psychological stress, that toxic materials used in industrial construction and insufficient thermal insulation led to health problems, and that widespread crime and disaffection was linked to the faulty urban planning.” (June 16)

Placing low-income residents from oppressed groups in high-rise tower blocks serves two obvious purposes. The buildings serve as a mechanism to contain the demographic shift of British and other European municipalities restricting the geographic spread of people of colour communities.

From a financial perspective, by concentrating African, Asian, Middle Eastern and other working class residents in confined spaces where maintenance and safety costs are de-emphasised, it provides the capacity for urban governments to channel tax revenue as incentives for private housing and commercial developments which is far more lucrative for corporations which specialise in these projects. What remains to be seen is whether the British government will learn from this calamitous event providing policy imperatives to construct housing units which are safer and more humane for the working poor and immigrants.

Tower Block Fire Compounds Political Crisis for the Conservative Government

Prime Minister Theresa May had good reason not to want to meet residents of Grenfell Towers and their neighbours. A recent election in the country, which many political pundits say was unnecessary, resulted in the Conservative Party losing its absolute majority in parliament forcing the ruling group to seek an alliance with the small Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to form a government. The prime minister could not afford to be seen on British and world television being heckled and denounced.

It is questionable whether May will be able to survive in her position in the coming weeks and months. Britain has been the site in recent months of several high-profile terrorist attacks in London and Manchester where many people have died.

As long as the wealthy elites enhance their status with disregard for the majority of the people within society, the mounting social contradictions will undoubtedly prompt further economic turbulence and protracted ideological conflict.

On June 18, a crowd of Muslims coming from the Finsbury Park Mosque in North London were targeted by a white racist who drove his van into pedestrians. One person died in the attack and several others were seriously injured. People in the area said the assailant remarked that he was intent on killing Muslims.

The following day on June 19, Britain began negotiations with the European Union (EU) over its delinking from the continental organisation. Brexit stemmed from another miscalculated election in June 2016 where the voters decided to withdraw from the EU, costing former Prime Minister David Cameron his position and triggering a recession inside the country due to the economic uncertainty going into the future.

Britain along with other western capitalist states will continue to experience political instability in light of the growing class and sectional differences among the populations. As long as the wealthy elites enhance their status with disregard for the majority of the people within society, the mounting social contradictions will undoubtedly prompt further economic turbulence and protracted ideological conflict.

About the Author

Abayomi Azikiwe is the Editor of the Pan-African News Wire, an electronic press agency that was founded in 1998. He has worked for decades in solidarity with the liberation movements and progressive governments on the African continent and the Caribbean. Azikiwe is a graduate of Wayne State University in Detroit where he earned undergraduate and graduate degrees in Political Science/Public Administration and Educational and Administrative Studies.

Reference

1. www.grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com

North Korea: What Options Remain?

By Walter C. Clemens, Jr.

The ever-increasing tension between the United States and North Korea is a concern for the whole world. In this article, Walter Clemens elaborates on the past and hopefully future negotiations between the two nuclear-armed states.

Americans think they have done everything short of war to stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear weapons state. To be sure, Washington has encouraged the sporadic moves by Seoul and Pyongyang to cooperate and grope toward confederation. The US government has supported programmes to feed the hungry and treat the sick in North Korea. However Washington did nothing to help North Korean musicians to reciprocate the New York Philharmonic’s performance in Pyongyang in 2007. The US has supported radio broadcasts to show North Korea’s people the nature of their rulers – part of what one specialist calls “hack and frack”. The US Treasury and US diplomats at the United Nations have worked to tighten sanctions to choke Pyongyang’s weapons programmes and penalise its rulers for their abuse of human rights. Washington has importuned Beijing to rein in its rogue client, though to limited effect. The Clinton administration considered a surgical strike on North Korea’s nuclear facilities in 1994, but this option has become too dangerous to contemplate. As with the former Soviet Union, the United States has sought to contain a dangerous foe. Washington has maintained powerful forces in South Korea, Japan, and across the Pacific Ocean to reassure allies and deter North Korea aggression. None of this, however, has stopped the North from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Has the United States fully explored a negotiated settlement of its differences with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)? The answer is both Yes and No. President George H. W. Bush gave an impetus to negotiation when he withdrew all nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991. Within months, Seoul and Pyongyang agreed to denuclearise the peninsula. Soon, however, each side accused the other of violating parts of the accord. When signs mounted in 1994 that North Korea was building nuclear weapons, the Clinton administration mobilised to attack the North’s nuclear sites. Momentum toward war halted when former president Jimmy Carter flew to Pyongyang and drew up a plan with DPRK leader Kim Il Sung to freeze the North’s plutonium production in exchange for energy assistance and normalisation of DPRK ties with the United States. Their draft accord soon became an “Agreed Framework” signed by top US and DPRK diplomats in October 1994. Republicans in Congress, however, balked at paying for energy assistance to the North and US oil deliveries often arrived late. More troublesome, work on the two light water reactors promised to the North proceeded very slowly. Despite mutual suspicions, a top DPRK official came to the White House in 2000 and invited President Bill Clinton to Pyongyang. When Secretary of State Madeleine Albright went there in his stead, she reported that Kim Jong Il appeared ready to make a deal on missiles as well as nuclear weapons.

Succeeding Clinton as president in 2001, George W. Bush broke off these exchanges and, soon placed North Korea on an “axis of evil” along with Iraq and Iran. Soon, both Washington and Pyongyang denounced the Agreed Framework and the North resumed reprocessing plutonium. (Thanks to Pakistan, it could also enrich uranium, not specifically addressed in 1994). Despite all this, the Bush administration veered from its initial intransigence and promoted six-party talks with North Korea beginning in August 2003. These negotiations produced several joint statements that seemed to revive the 1994 principle of aid for arms control. Each accord withered, however, when buffeted by hard-liners in Washington and Pyongyang.

The six-party talks continued for three years even after Pyongyang exploded its first nuclear device in 2006. Censured by the UN Security Council for its nuclear and missile tests, however, North Korea declared in April 2009 that it would not continue the six-party negotiations. As of September 2016, the DPRK had conducted a total of six nuclear tests, one of which it claimed was thermonuclear.

Committed to negotiate with any adversary, Barack Obama’s administration focussed on Iran (which had never tested a nuclear weapon) but also explored a deal with North Korea. While Kim Jong Un was succeeding his father, Kim Jong Il, diplomats from North Korea and the US seemed to reach another agreed framework on February 29, 2012. The North pledged a halt to nuclear and long-range missile tests while the US committed to provide food aid. The deal fell apart in April when the North attempted to launch a satellite on a three-stage rocket. Washington did not buy Pyongyang’s argument that its “space” rocket was not a missile for military use.

Feeling let down by Pyongyang, the Obama administration settled into a posture of “strategic patience”. Usually the United States demanded that the DPRK again commit to denuclearisation before negotiations could resume. At other moments, Washington said only that negotiations – on a peace treaty and other matters – must include denuclearisation. Thus, Secretary of State John Kerry stated on September 10, 2016 that Washington was willing to negotiate with North Korea, but only if Pyongyang agrees that the goal of those talks was for it to give up its weapons. But then Kerry softened – nearly contradicting himself – by stating “All that Kim Jon Un needs to do is say, “I am prepared to talk about denuclearisation.” President Obama did a similar two-step on October 16, 2015 as he spoke alongside South Korea President Park Geun Hye. Such ambivalence sharpened the question of sequencing – who should go first and how.

Secretary of State John Kerry stated on September 10, 2016 that Washington was willing to negotiate with North Korea, but only if Pyongyang agrees that the goal of those talks was for it to give up its weapons.

The longer the present impasse continues, the more the DPRK leadership will oppose any dismantling of its advanced weaponry. Still, a conditional freeze of DPRK nuclear and missile development might benefit all sides. Stanford University nuclear expert Siegfried Hecker has suggested the United States and its partners pursue the “three no’s”. No more bombs, no better bombs (no more nuclear testing), and no export of nuclear technology and materials in return for one yes: American willingness to seriously address North Korea’s fundamental insecurity. A freeze would permit Pyongyang to claim a nuclear deterrent in addition to its conventional overkill poised to destroy Seoul.

If negotiations resumed – bilateral or six-party, what sort of deal could be arranged? At least seven points need to be addressed:

1. Security assurances for North Korea to compensate for limits on its nuclear deterrent;
2. A peace treaty to replace the 1953 armistice;
3. Adjustment of the Northern Limit Line to reduce conflict and share resources of the West Sea;
4. Establishment of diplomatic relations by Washington and Pyongyang and by Pyongyang and Seoul;
5. The gradual end to UN sanctions against the North in tandem with Pyongyang’s acceptance of a freeze of its nuclear and missile programmes;
6. Cultural, educational, family and information exchanges;
7. Agricultural and technological assistance to the North.

Such a deal would entail risks and uncertainties, but no more than an untrammelled arms race in Northeast Asia. Any grand bargain would need to serve the interests not only of the US and North Korea but also of South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. Mutual gain could be accomplished by a few compromises and commitments to “enlarge the pie”.

Featured Image: North Korea defending its nuclear weapons program but also seeking talks with the U.S. © KCNA, http://www.upi.com

About the Author

Walter Clemens Jr. is Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Boston University, and an Associate of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He has written many books including Can Russia Change? (Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2011). His most recent book is North Korea and the World: Human Rights, Arms Control, and Strategies for Negotiation (University Press of Kentucky, 2016). He can be reached at [email protected]

Venezuela – Confronting the Neoliberal Propaganda Media Machine

By Peter Koenig

Venezuela is arguably the only true democracy in the western world. In this article, Peter Koenig elaborates on the western world’s “demonisation” of countries that do not conform to the rules of empire, truths hidden by main stream media, and more.

On 8 of June, I had the privilege to attend a press conference hosted by the Venezuelan Ambassador in Bern, Switzerland. The purpose of the press conference was to clarify the current highly misrepresented situation in Venezuela, as well as explaining the process of electing a new National Constitutional Assembly (Asamblea Nacional Constituyente – ANC) on July 30, 2017.

In his hour-long presentation, the Ambassador introduced the issues at stake by explaining that Venezuela today has the largest known oil reserves in the world and the fourth largest deposits of gas; that the US is importing 60% of its lush energy use (a distant first of the globe’s per capita energy users), mostly from the Middle East, where it is subject to long and costly transport (40-45 days), and to many risk factors, including the Gulf of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, where today about one third of all the world’s petrol must pass through.

By contrast, shipments of petroleum from Venezuela across the Caribbean to the refineries in Texas take only 4-5 days.

This is the main reason why Venezuela is in the White House’s crosshairs, plus, of course, the fact that for Washington it is totally intolerable to have a sovereign socialist Republic in its “backyard” – and so close, the same syndrome applies also for Cuba, a genuinely successful socialist nation, having survived almost sixty years of atrocious and criminal American strangulation. There is no tolerance for sovereign independent countries that do not bend to the dictate of the United States and her behind the scene handlers.

The Ambassador then went on explaining the process of the upcoming election of the National Constitutional Assembly (ANC). He described the process of direct democracy, where Venezuelans elect their delegates by region and by sector, and where of course, the opposition was also supposed to participate, although the opposition’s leadership has already declared they would boycott the process.

There is no tolerance for sovereign independent countries that do not bend to the dictate of the United States and her behind the scene handlers.

The elected new ANC would then be called to amend the Constitution of 1999, to adapt it to today’s circumstances. The current Constitution was approved in a similar democratic process by the people and sanctioned by the ANC one year after President Hugo Chavez Frias became President in 1998. The 1999 Constitution is still valid and adhered to until this day. 

The July election will choose 545 members to the National Assembly, of which two thirds (364) would be elected on a regional or territorial basis, and one third (181) by sectors of professions or activities, i.e. students, farmers, unions of different labor forces, employees, business owners – and so on. This cross-section of people’s representation is the most solid basis for democracy.

The Ambassador assured the journalists that there will be a very high peoples’ participation in the elections, as was the case for the 19 democratic elections that took place since1998, when Comandante Chavez became President.

This election should be an opportunity for the opposition to gather as many Assembly seats as possible, and then help shape the new Constitution in a fully democratic process. Not by street violence.

The fact that the opposition is planning to boycott the election shows clearly, they are not interested in democracy. They have one goal only, to oust President Maduro and take power, privatise state assets, especially hydrocarbons (petroleum and gas) to hand them to international mainly US corporations to be exploited at no benefits for the Venezuelan people.

This was precisely the case before President Chavez took the reins of the country. Foreign corporations, almost all North Americans, left not a dollar in tax revenues in Venezuela.

Venezuela today is arguably the only true democracy in the western world, as said on numerous occasions by Professor Noam Chomsky, MIT.

To counter the neoliberal mainstream media’s (MSM) demonisation of the Bolivarian Revolution and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and her President Nicolas Maduro, the Ambassador showed various videos demonstrating that the instigators of violence were clearly the armed opposition. They are constituted and led by a rich elite and supported ideologically and financially from outside.

Among different foreign sources  of support and funding, most of them American, is the infamous National Endowment for Democracy – NED, a so called “fake” NGO “think-tank” (sic), receiving from the US State Department hundreds of millions of dollars per year to “spread democracy” American style around the globe, i.e. training local rebel groups abroad and within the targeted country to provoke instability through unrest and violence; distribute anti-government propaganda, infiltrate the media, universities and so on. They are the same who were responsible for the so-called Arab Spring and the Colour Revolutions in former Soviet Republics, including Ukraine.

The Ambassador showed various videos demonstrating that the instigators of violence were clearly the armed opposition. They are constituted and led by a rich elite and supported ideologically and financially from outside.

The facts explained and demonstrated by the Ambassador showed clearly who was responsible for most of the 67 deaths and more than 1,200 injured within the last couple of months.

This is all supported by unmistakable videos, showing government supporters, who are despite what the western media are saying, the vast majority – between 70% and 80%, demonstrating peacefully and unarmed.

However, western media twists and manipulates the truth to become anti-Venezuela propaganda, including video clips presented out of context, or outright falsified, blame the aggression on the government supporters, accusing authorities and police of oppressing civil liberties, of dictatorship, of killing its own people. 

The western MSM do not show the weaponised right-wing opposition attacking police with explosives, putting police cars on fire and throwing Molotov cocktails and more sophisticated explosives at police and authorities.

This point of opposition violence, blackmail and more, is clearly demonstrated by a recent US journalist covering the riots for the pan-Latin American TeleSur TV. Ms. Abby Martin, the host of the Empire Files, an investigative programme, told RT (Russia Today) that she received numerous death threats from opposition fighters during her work on the ground in Venezuela. She says protesters threatened to lynch and burn her alive if she tried to contradict their narrative.1 This is to be taken seriously, because several journalists have already been murdered by the opposition.

The western MSM do not show the weaponised right-wing opposition attacking police with explosives, putting police cars on fire and throwing Molotov cocktails and more sophisticated explosives at police and authorities.

The Ambassador made two very important points that the west should listen to. He said, that despite the violent social upheavals, the government is respecting the principles of democracy and has not declared a State of Emergency or Martial Law, nor curtailed private-owned foreign media slandering Venezuela with lies.

This contrasts with other countries, like France which for the past two years has been under a declared State of Emergency, just a small step below Martial Law, and is about to put this state of permanent militarisation into her Constitution; or take Argentina which is suppressing foreign media like TeleSur (and were at the point of shutting down also RT), because they are telling Argentinians the inconvenient truth.

When the Ambassador opened the floor for questions and comments, most of the journalists present were polite, seeking clarifications of the election process. But there were two sore thumbs sticking out, the representatives of the two largest and most neoliberal Swiss newspapers, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) and the Tagesanzeiger.

They came with a specific agenda. It seems they didn’t listen to anything the Ambassador said. They simply hurled their list of insults, accusations and offensive negative lie-propaganda at the Ambassador. Both of them are what one would assume in Switzerland, educated people. They must know the truth. If they don’t say the truth, they are most likely bought agents of the Anglo-Zionist network that controls 90% of the news throughout the western world. After they accomplished their mission of insulting the Ambassador, they left the conference.

Isn’t it a journalist’s foremost obligation to adhere to a code of ethics? – That’s what they were taught at universities, to seek the truth and portray the truth as objectively as possible.

And what about Switzerland? A country that boasts about its neutrality, appears to have completely abandoned her noble principles and moved to become Europe’s epicentre of neoliberalism. No wonder, such alternative international media like TeleSur and RT are not publicly offered to households by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SRG), the monopoly holder (90%) of Swiss television and radio providers.

Featured Image: Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro waving the flag of Venezuela. Image from Fernando Llano/AP

About the Author

koenig-webPeter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, The 4th Media, TeleSUR, TruePublica, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

Reference

1. https://www.rt.com/news/391338-us-journalist-venezuela-threats/

 

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