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How to Find an Exceptional Criminal Defense Attorney for Driving Under the Influence Cases

A DUI (driving under the influence) charge is a really serious thing to face, and a conviction has both short and long term effects. So, long after your driving license is pulled for a set period of time, you’ve paid out for all related fees and fines, and taken the punishment (which could be anything from community service to a jail sentence), be prepared for lots of DUI related problems for many years to come.

 

The long term influence of a DUI conviction

There are lots, and they include:

• High insurance premiums – these are likely to be applied to any vehicles you purchase or rent post-conviction. They can easily be three or four times higher than they would be without a DUI.

• Possible loss of your driving license – for at least a couple of years. This could easily lead to you losing your job if you cannot get there without personal transport, and/or social isolation from both family and friends.

• Problems finding employment – or changing jobs if a background check is required. Some employers may be more understanding than others, depending on the type of work involved. The same thing applies to renting a property if the landlord does background checks on applicants.

• Difficulties finding a job – especially if it involves driving. So that rules out the obvious roles like cab or truck work, and sales or delivery jobs, and there are lots more which are less obvious, but still need a sober and responsible person on board.

• Awkward relationships with people you know – It’s natural to feel ashamed of a DUI, to believe you have let people down, and to avoid seeing them which can easily mean you drift away from support networks. Then there are your colleagues and boss –who may be less than understanding or forgiving than you would like. In some cases simply having the conviction is enough to allow termination of employment contract.

• Being passed over for scholarships – a DUI conviction can be a huge problem if you decide at any point to apply for a scholarship.

So considering that there is so much at stake with a DUI charge, doing all you can to avoid a conviction is extremely important; and for that you need a top-flight DUI Lawyer.

 

Tips on how to find an outstanding criminal defence lawyer to fight your DUI charge

Tip #1 – Where possible choose a criminal not a civil attorney

Unless you live in an extremely small or isolated location where the one lawyer around does practice both, you’ll find most specialize in either civil or criminal law. Civil attorneys often work in large forms, housed in a building with many colleagues, while a private criminal defence attorney will usually be found working solo or in a small company, and focus their workload on the county/state they are based in. A criminal defence lawyer has the experience you need.

Tip #2 – Hire local

Preferably choosing an attorney who has worked cases in the same courthouse your case will be heard in. This has the huge advantage of your attorney being familiar with how things work there, how the local prosecutors approach their cases, and lots of other useful insights which could give you an advantage when your case comes to trial.

Tip #3 – Choose an attorney with DUI case experience

Don’t assume that all criminal defence lawyers have practical experience with DUIs, as they do tend to specialize in a handful of areas which they can then do really well. No one lawyer could ever get a huge amount of experience in every single possible criminal law charge.

Don’t be afraid to ask a potential attorney for your case about their specialist experience, and (if relevant), if they have studied for any related license.

Tip #4 – Pick a criminal defence attorney you feel comfortable with

You need to be able to trust them, to be open, and feel able to share everything you need to, that the attorney involves you in the case, and really listens to what you have to say. The best outcomes tend to come from cases where the attorney was genuinely invested in their client.

Tip #5 – Work with someone who explains everything

Outstanding criminal defense attorneys in Orlando will happily guide you through the process ahead and explain all the options; from plea bargaining to understanding the possible outcomes – and all in a language you can understand.

Tip #6 – Look for transparent fee formulas

Any decent criminal defence attorney will have a fee scale which is always transparent, and both fair and affordable. You should never be subjected to vague agreements or open-ended charge plans without at least some form of ceiling officially in place.

 

Where are these amazing lawyers?

They are out there, you just need to do some legwork to find them. Beginning your search with extremely local companies is a great idea, and if you feel able to explain why you could easily ask friends and family in the area for recommendations. Even if they have no direct experience of using a criminal defence lawyer for themselves they may have contacts who know of someone.

There are official directories of lawyers, The General Bar Law Directory, which can be accessed to check on someone’s background, education, training and experience if you have a few names to research. There are also several lawyer review sites which may be useful.

 

Final thoughts

Choosing an outstanding criminal defence lawyer like lawyer Ross Hill to defend you on a DUI charge could be one of the most important decisions you ever made in your life – so give this search the priority, time and effort that it deserves. Don’t settle for someone who doesn’t make you feel confident about the outcome, or doesn’t take the time to explain everything at all stages so you are always genuinely involved. Remember the attorney you choose should be: local, certified, experienced, approachable, and of course, successful.

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Probing the Minds of Elected Women Representatives on Village Councils in India

By Samir Sathe

The psychological construct of the Elected Women Representatives (EWRs) is a significantly relevant and yet surprisingly ignored subject in India. This article is a synopsis of some of the pathbreaking findings of a probe into the minds of EWRs.

Elected Women Representatives (EWRs) are the harbingers of change in rural political governance, a necessary ingredient for the economically inclusive prosperity in India. And yet, the psychology of EWRs remains unexplored, at worst, and tainted with gender bias, at best. The interrelationships between their own thoughts, emotions, and behaviours, as well as those of their families, Village Council (VC) members, and villagers reveal to us the underlying variables that could potentially move the needle from stagnation to progress at the grassroots of Indian villages. If EWRs were to play the role of improving the economic well-being of the villagers, perhaps, a necessary condition to make the growth “inclusive”, it is important to fathom the variables that influence their performance in effectively designing and implementing the village level agenda and thereby moving the needle.

In my search of the unconscious mind of EWRs, I examined over 150 emotions to understand what moves this needle and several themes stood out. I have commented on the three of them in this article. First, seven emotions – self-confidence, love, learning, authenticity, survival instinct, social engagement, and fairness have the most significant influence on the performance of EWRs. Second, performing EWRs see their leadership role in Village Councils as that of “mother-leaders” of an extended family of villagers, while underperforming EWRs see it as a competing commitment, which conflicts with their role as homemakers. Third, performing or successful EWRs succeeded in implementing their intended actions, as part of a progress plan drafted by the Village Council (VC). Underperforming EWRs were unable to garner support from VC members or villagers in implementing the agenda.

Exhibit 1 shows the complex tapestry of the influence of these variables on each other, finally influencing the performance of EWRs.

Exhibit 1

 

Among the three characteristics that characterised the performing EWRs, self-confidence emerged as the most important psychological attribute.

Successful or performing EWRs, unsurprisingly, have a positive mindset shadowing negative emotions. As I proved further, I found an astonishing correlation between the top three attributes that determine success – “Self-confidence”, “love” and “social engagement”. EWRs linked these attributes as “mutually reinforcing” towards their success, as they shared their lives, their struggles, their mental fortitude, and the approach to lives with me. On the other hand, less successful or underperforming EWRs were characterised by the attributes of “self-doubt”, “emotional incapacity” and “irresponsibility”.

Among the three characteristics that characterised the performing EWRs, self-confidence emerged as the most important psychological attribute.

Self-confident and successful EWRs usually solicit good support from family members (especially their husbands) and strongly believe in spreading universal attributes of love. They embrace most of the seven emotional attributes of love, learning, authenticity, fairness, survival instinct, social engagement, and leadership.

EWRs who spread love appear to love themselves. They demonstrate self-worth, self-belief, and self-esteem. EWRs with self-esteem and self-worth usually have strong survival instincts. They learn fast and adapt; this prompts them to make the effort to build the knowledge they need to accomplish their primary task. Spreading love does not come easily unless one loves oneself and has self-esteem and respect. An astounding 92% of the successful EWRs celebrated the ideas of self-esteem and self-respect, while over 80% of the sub-optimal performers thought the idea of self-respect was overrated!

Survival instinct is the primal force that we, as humans, have inherited from animals through evolution, spanning millions of years. In the case of successful EWRs, this trait appears to dominate their responses, helping them to learn and adapt better. Interestingly, it is not only existential anxiety that encourages them to learn; they also have a strong drive to expand their own physical and mental potential; this enables them to learn better and faster.

Spreading love does not come easily unless one loves oneself and has self-esteem and respect.

While the survival instinct is at the level of “self”, the drive to expand the potential is not at the level of “self” but relates to the level of the “family” and to villagers – “the extended family”. It is strongly correlated with a strong sense of responsibility, recalling the phrase “noblesse oblige” or “privilege entails responsibility”; it enables them to work hard to protect their families and extended families. The sense of responsibility that includes extended families also allows EWRs to direct and protect the people they feel responsible for. Both EWRs and villagers offer mutual support and cooperation, realising that they are interdependent parts of the “system” of a village. EWRs also demonstrate a third dimension, of “order”, which is characteristic of effective leaders.

Successful EWRs also share a social identity with their villagers. This finding provides increasing evidence that leaders who can build a common identity are more likely to rally their people to serve a common cause, rather than a cause espoused only by leaders. It seems plausible that leaders such as EWRs, who think of themselves as leading a common cause (advancing the villagers) are more successful than leaders who see themselves as merely occupying a position of duty or authority, as required by legislative changes.

Most EWRs have inherited from their parents or learned from their teachers that fairness is important, both when it comes to outcomes, and when it comes to the process one follows to arrive at a decision. This approach is authentic for women leaders who have overcome difficulties, because they know that the next generation of women will not live better lives if unfair practices and falsehoods that have governed society for centuries can continue, alongside the idea that these practices are necessary for survival. The notion of doing better for society and a burning desire to be useful can be passed on by parents or primary school teachers. More often than men, the EWRs appear to present their true selves, rather than projecting an image. Considering the social setting and their backgrounds, successful EWRs seemed remarkably authentic. This trait elicits a positive response from silent workers in the villages, amplifying the momentum of progress.

Successful EWRs have emotional capability and a huge capacity to reflect. Almost all successful EWRs demonstrate high levels of maturity and stability with respect to their emotions, even in the wake of trauma. Running a Village Council provides a perfect opportunity for them to exercise those faculties. Their primary tasks and roles at home and at work allow them to prioritise, choose, act, and seek feedback all the time. Less successful EWRs need to develop this capacity. In fact, emotionally capable EWRs enhance the emotional capital of the villagers. Collectively, it is a mutually reinforcing and rewarding relationship.

EWRs who suffer from guilt or a lack of self-worth end up doubting themselves, which constrains them in their roles. Emotionally shy EWRs (those unable to express themselves well) have also been found to be controversial at work, generating arguments in the Village Council and from male members.

Significant majority of successful EWRs think of villagers as the extension of their families. This new form of leadership can be termed being a “Mother Leader”, in cases where EWRs perceive themselves as acting like mothers to their extended families and working with them to achieve a common goal.

An astounding 92% of the successful EWRs celebrated the ideas of self-esteem and self-respect.

Looking after the family often comes naturally to these women because they see themselves as “care leaders”. Care leading is a behaviour derived from the instinct to “protect”. It can become an automatic (not authentic and yet positive) response to the situation of finding themselves elected as the leaders of villages. Care leading and protecting a family are behaviours often found in mothers.

EWRs have a strong sense of responsibility, which enables them to work hard to protect their families and extended families. They are also able to make hard choices in discharging their responsibilities. For example, several EWRs have sent their children to better schools in cities to look after villagers (i.e. members of their extended families). They tend to have a clear sense of what is best for their children and extended families. This allows them to win support and respect from the villagers, which in turn enables them to provide better for their children. These EWRs also direct the villagers, which becomes their primary task. EWRs who assume leadership at work tend to expect to be obeyed at home, in cases where their husbands willingly share the home responsibilities. The entire household tends to follow the EWR, even at home.

EWRs do not seek power or a position to fulfil a desire for dominance or control. Instead, they seek opportunities to contribute to their community as a way of finding meaning in life. They treat Village Councils as a platform for that opportunity. Successful EWRs recognise that power will allow them to contribute more and faster; they therefore learn to navigate Village Council politics effectively. By contrast, less successful EWRs view their roles as a job and may be relegated to the minority position in Village Councils.

Successful EWRs have emotional capability and a huge capacity to reflect. Almost all successful EWRs demonstrate high levels of maturity and stability with respect to their emotions, even in the wake of trauma.

EWRs who view their responsibility to the villagers as an additional duty tend to view it as a “competing commitment”  that may interfere with their commitment to their own families. This makes it harder for them to balance their roles as mothers to families and EWRs. 89% of the EWRs who faced these issues and were unable to meet them, met with uncooperative VC members or faced hindrance in implementation, from them, eventually causing delays or delivering a sub-optimal performance.

Successful EWRs have positive social identities and experience identity integration. Social identity  is a meaning attached to the self in the context of social surroundings of an individual. Their self-views are related to how they view their gender-identity and whether it conflicts with their leader-identity. Successful EWRs demonstrate that attributes expected from a woman and expected from a leader need not be conflicting. While gender stereotypes would advocate more affectionate behaviours from mothers while leaders would be expected to demonstrate more assertive, decisive and clinical behaviours, mother-leaders in EWRs defy this paradigm. Unsuccessful or underperforming EWRs inherently experience a tussle between these identities leading to less authentic leader behaviours, impaired decision making, stress and poor motivation to play leader roles often resulting in a spill-over to a role of a mother.

In the EWRs’ concept of their role in the “system” they see their potential selves as a new object of social identity. In that sense, they view themselves as part of the village and as the shaper of a new village or new order. In a strange way, they feel as if they are playing the role of goddesses within the village system. They consider themselves to be both separate individuals and part of the system they lead.

EWRs sometimes lose their own separate identities, apart from their families and the other villagers. Being one with the change has a deeper meaning. Perhaps, this is the very root of EWR’s success; the absence of this root causes other EWRs to be unsuccessful. The notion of being change agents and change itself in the context of their roles, needs a deeper understanding of underlying variables.

Village Council offices are transitional objects for successful EWRs. The objects fill a void, representing the much-cherished concept of “freedom” that womenfolk deserve, away from the walls of homes that confine them to mundane household duties; they also represent a “bond” with the extended families. The offices are vehicles that help them engage socially with the villagers and allow them to protect and direct these members of their extended families. Finally, these platforms offer them an opportunity to become the instrument of change for themselves and the society they live in.

As I reflect on my first affair with the psychological construct of the EWRs, I remain humbled by the inner strength that successful EWRs demonstrate, with such an astonishingly simple demeanour. I loved the humility due to the unawareness of the knowledge of the thermotical construct that is manufactured by the intellectual practising professionals (the community I belong to!) trying to change the world, that already resides in them. A lesson for us is, most certainly, that the change begins with oneself, the notion that EWRs practised fervently, intuitively and unknowingly!

Feature Image source: apolitical.co

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About the Author

Samir Sathe is an Executive Vice President, Advantage Program, India, at Wadhwani Foundation, a global philanthropic enterprise. Samir is a Master in Change from INSEAD and has 25 years of research, strategy consulting and leadership experience. He is committed to the causes of entrepreneurship, employment and women.

References

1. Houghton, Pearce, Manz, Courtright & Stewart, 2015

2. Kegan & Laskow, 2001

3. Oyserman & Fryberg, 2006

NATO – No Need – NEXIT

Protest against NATO

10By Peter Koenig

“EXIT NATO!” – was the glaring title on a huge screen greeting the several hundred participants of the Anti-NATO Conference in Florence, Italy, on 7 April 2019. Officially it was called The International Conference on the 70th Anniversary of NATO, sponsored by Global Research of Canada and the International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons (ICBUW). I had the privilege to attend this important forum.

Following the EXIT NATO poster, was another huge slide decorating the conference wall – proclaiming that NATO, as a reward for all their work for Peace, should be rewarded with the Peace Nobel Prize. No doubt, nuclear armament and eventually nuclear wars – to be fought by NATO – by whom else – will make the world a safer place. Wars are actually good for Peace. They are also good for economics, but they are particularly good for Peace.

I’m not kidding you – these are declarations one can read – and has been able to read since practically 9/11, in such prominent “Truth News” papers like the Washington Post and the NYT. – So, why not the Peace Prize to NATO? – It wouldn’t make much difference, considering the track record of the Nobel Prize Committee – it would fall right into place.

Other than that, the conference basically outlined the atrocities committed by NATO, its associate and crony terrorist armies, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Al Nusra – and so on, changing names for revolving terrorists, recruited and trained by the CIA and funded by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, and of course the US directly or through her many State Department funded and subsidiary NGOs, like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and many others. And of course, not to forget a prominent funder of terrorism, Turkey – who is now trying to make a smiling face to Russia and the east, even flirting with the idea of entering the club of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); on the one hand purchasing Russian military defense systems – the S-400 – and at the same time US fighter planes F35, dancing on as many weddings simultaneously as they can. – Who would trust Turkey under Erdogan? – Turkey also still hosts one of the most strategic and most dangerous nuclear-equipped NATO bases – literally between east and west.

The Conference recalled the Cold War. By now everybody knows – really? – well, for those who don’t – that the so-called Cold War was one of the best propagated and fakest news of the 20th Century. It’s a brilliant idea that sprung out of the McCarthy Nazi-era – like NATO itself – to arm the US to the teeth – maximizing profits of the military industrial complex, under the pretext of halting the advancement of the Soviet Union into just liberated western Europe, just liberated from Hitler’s Nazi-Germany. Never mind that western Europe has been saved by the Soviet Union who lost 25-30 million people and basically their transport and production infrastructure. Yes, it was not the so-called allies – US, UK, and France – they came in last, when the bulk of the job was already done by what is today Russia. But of course, no western history book would tell you the truth. In fact, it must be said here too – the US funded Hitler’s war against the Soviet Union with money channeled from the FED, through Wall Street banks, and eventually through the Rothschild dominated Bank for International Settlement (BIS), located in Basel, Switzerland, right at the border to Germany, from where it was easy to pass the money on to the Reichsbank – Hitler’s Central Bank. Yes- that’s how the US was already then dancing on various fiestas at the same time; on the one hand bombing Germany and, on the other, financing Germany’s war against what the US already then perceived as an archenemy – The Red Scare – the Soviet Union. Well, these acts of treason then were the precursors of NATO today.

Anything socialist is evil for the US, still today. Trump himself and his minion clowns, Pompeo, Bolton, and Pence – are lambasting Venezuela and Cuba for being evil and destructive socialist countries – and that socialism will not be tolerated nowhere by the falling empire – sorry, falling it is – of the United States of America.

The other purpose of the Cold War farce, was to make the Europeans believe that they were under a constant threat of a Soviet invasion, that they had to arm themselves also to the teeth – imagine war-recovering Europe having to spend their money on arms for no use! – and of course most of these weapons had to be bought – yes, you guessed it – from the US military industrial complex – more profit for the war oligarchs. The Anglo-media giants even created a virtual barrier between western “free” Europe and the bad-bad Red Scare, the Soviet Union, the Iron Curtain. Yes, the Iron Curtain; children in school were indoctrinated to be aware that the enemy is hiding behind the Iron Curtain, and that the enemy always comes from the East. Hilarious, when you think back. At that time (almost) everybody believed it.

And the third, or perhaps first objective of the Cold War, was to block the Soviet Union from developing a viable and autonomous economy with which they could thrive, as most socialist countries do, until they are boycotted, punished and financially “sanctioned” into suffocation – by the west. These illegal financial manipulations with and within sovereign countries’ economies, are, of course, illegal by any standards of international laws – laws that have become meaningless in the light of US / NATO power, scary nuclear power. These acts of financial and human rights high crimes are only possible, because of the all dominating, fraudulent US-imposed – and NATO-protected – western monetary system.

The NATO-driven Cold War, a constant nuclear threat towards the Soviet Union, was intended to force Russia also to arm for their defense, instead of being able to use their economy’s added value to rebuild their devastated country. The USSR was never a threat to Europe. There was never an intention of the Soviet Union to invade western Europe. The same today, we are being made believe that Russia wants to invade Europe – that’s why NATO needs to build all these military bases, at the doorstep to Russia. Russia is by far the largest country, territory-wise, in the world, they don’t need to add more land. Historically, neither Russia or China have a record of expansionism.

In the end, the NATO-led Cold War managed to dismantle the Soviet Union by ‘buying’ some corrupt Soviet leaders, so that the new Russia, whose socialist system just was made to collapse, unprepared with legislation for what was to come – privatization by fire-sale of their entire economy. Like vultures, the financial institutions, IMF, World Bank, agents of the FED, descended on Moscow to literally steel by indebting whatever had any value. This misery still has not entirely abetted, as the Russian Central Bank was restructured, following the image of the FED – today, under President Putin, much has changed and was reformed, however, the financial sector is still heavily invaded by the Atlantists – or what you may also call the Fifth Columnists. And of course, even those are protected by NATO – as NATO issues threats, nobody knows from where they come – but you know who executes them, in case of…

The Florence Anti-NATO Conference also recalled some of the most abject killing sprees of NATO in its 70 years of existence, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Ukraine – the Maidan massacre followed by the so-called Ukrainian civil war – and the crowning of sorts, the ten-year war on Yugoslavia – the total destruction of Yugoslavia, with the final blow 1999, the merciless bombing of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. – Why Yugoslavia? – Let’s dwell just a moment on this war of cruel destruction and killing – because it is so typical for Pentagon-driven wars of annihilation. Yugoslavia, a socialist country, in the 1970s and 80s under Maoist President Tito, had a prosperous economy, much more so than the rest of Europe. The US-dominated west cannot let a socialist economy flourish. Other countries, especially stagnating western Europe, could get ideas.

Remember, socialism is evil. So, with what is today called the “Balkanization” – cut into pieces – of Yugoslavia was the old-old tactic of divide to conquer, as well as by creating internal chaos, the western powers kept control of the people, and eventually NATO was able to advance closer and ever closer to the Russian border, by occupying former Yugoslav republics with NATO bases (Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Kosovo is waiting in the wings), in addition to the further expansion east to Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, not to mention the former Soviet Republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

This expansion east – ever closer to Moscow, is a flagrant breach of a promise made by the allied forces. In 1991, then German Foreign Minister Genscher promised Russian President Gorbachev that NATO would not move one inch further east than Germany. In fact, he assured Gorbachev that NATO would not move into what before the German unification was Eastern Germany. This promise was unfortunately never recorded in writing, and Gorbachev was miserably betrayed. As we know by now, a betrayal by the west is very normal. In the meantime,12 more NATO bases east of Germany, including in former East-Germany, were built.

In their 70 years of existence, US-NATO, allied and proxy forces, as well as mercenaries, have killed between 20 and 25 million people around the globe, in wars and conflicts – in the eternal war against “terror” – that was “justified” by self-inflicted 9/11, the start to the final phase of the PNAC – Plan for a New American Century – to reach Full Spectrum Dominance.

Wars have a cost – a financial, economic and a social cost. The US official military budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 is US$ 700 billion; for FY 2019 Trump proposes US$ 750. If approved it would be a 40% increase in the last 9 years. But that’s not all. This is just the officially published figure. The real cost for the war, defense, and security apparatus to which also the opaque CIA and associated secret services count – is well over a trillion dollars, perhaps as much as US$1.5 trillion – per year.

Wars have a cost – a financial, economic and a social cost. The US official military budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 is US$ 700 billion; for FY 2019 Trump proposes US$ 750.

The US has currently about one million military personnel stationed in 175 countries around the globe. The Pentagon maintains about a thousand military bases in more than 100 countries. The war cost, in currently seven war theatres is prohibitive – medical costs for veterans, for social services to returning veterans – and we are not talking about the cost of off-battle ground lives, i.e. by ever-mounting suicide rates. The Veteran Administration released a study that covered suicides from 1999 to 2010, showing that roughly 22 veterans were dying by suicide per day, or one every 65 minutes.

The reality is most likely a much higher figure – and the despair and human depression from anxieties related to the never-ending wars has increased exponentially in the last 9 years – more suicides, more desperation, more broken families – – entire generations of kids with fathers at war. This cost cannot be put in figures of dollars and cents – it’s a social cost that bears its toll in years, perhaps generations from now.

The US spends per capita ten times more than the rest of the world together on military/war expenses. President Trump requests European NATO countries to increase their military budget by contributing more to NATO, first up to 2% of GDP – threatening he may decide to withdraw NATO from Europe, if Europe does not comply with his request, still making believe that NATO is a defensive force – protecting Europe- from what, and from whom? – Good-bye NATO. This is the moment to call Trump’s bluff.

But NATO – the Trans-Atlantic Treaty Organization – has also gone overseas to Latin America. NATO has since 2013 a Cooperation Agreement with Colombia, where the US has 5 military bases – which will automatically convert into NATO bases. NATO is also negotiating with Brazil’s new Nazi-leader, Bolsonaro, to enter Brazil, and, as such being a threat and a potential attack force to topple the Venezuelan democratically elected socialist government. Washington makes no secret – they want Venezuela’s hydrocarbon resources, the world’s largest reserves, gold and other minerals of which Venezuela is rich. NATO is perfect to do the dirty job.

But it gets worse, this Trump clown or the masters behind him had recently the audacity to ask for a European military budget increase to 4% of GDP – or else…. Yes. Let’s decide for else. Good riddance, NATO.

The overall NATO budget is well over a trillion dollars per year – yes, per year. And that is – people of Europe, people of the world! – that is to finance a killing machine that bulldozes countries into the ground with bombs and tanks, that kill indiscriminately civilians and other countries’ defensive military, countries that have never done any harm to the United States, nor to Europe which follows the Washington mandate like a bunch of vassals, what Europe has become.

Imagine, what could be done, with more than a trillion dollars or euros per year – in terms of building up education, health services, public infrastructure, and other social services – and expand these services to developing countries, to those very countries that are now bombarded mercilessly by NATO! – This, dear People of Europe, is your tax money. Do you want it to be spent killing people around the world for Washington’s world hegemony? – NATO does not protect you. NATO has been designed as an aggressive force – you were just never told. But look out of the window, the window of your ‘safe space’, and you will see the squandering of your tax money.

NATO is invading the space of Russia and China, countries that are seeking friendly relations with the rest of the world, they are seeking a multi-polar world, but encounter instead a response of aggression. NATO is preventing the natural, namely friendly relation and trading as equals within the huge Continent Eurasia, of which Europe has been artificially separated as a continent. This tremendous landmass Eurasia, includes also the entire Middle East and connects to Africa. This enormous mass of land and people and resources – does not need the west, the west, called America.

NATO is invading the space of Russia and China, countries that are seeking friendly relations with the rest of the world, they are seeking a multi-polar world, but encounter instead a response of aggression

Wouldn’t it be wise for countries and people of Eurasia, to just live sovereign lives, with friendly interactions, trading as equals not with a one-upmanship as is currently the norm for trading between the rich OECD nations dominating the World Trade Organization (WTO), with the rest of the world- which depends on trade but is always on the losing end?

One more point – that needs to be understood. Europe, the European Union as it was conceived and is limping along today – has never been the idea of Europeans, but was born during WWII in the heads of the CIA, then transplanted into some “willing” European heads and then ‘defended’ by NATO – the “unifying force”. Europe has no Constitution, only a number of non-binding accords, like Maastricht and Lisbon – but no Constitution that holds it together, that outlines a common vision in defense, in economic development, in monetary policy. The European Union results in a bunch of countries, some even hostile to each other. They have a common currency, the Euro, without even having a common economic base and development objective. This currency, forged as the little brother of the US-dollar, equally is nothing but fiat money, no backing whatsoever; this currency is not sustainable. So, the currency barely 20 years old, will eventually collapse or fade, and so will the European Union. It hasn’t happened yet, because NATO is holding it together, because Brussels is nothing but a puppet of the Pentagon. It is Washington through the Pentagon, and through NATO that is running Europe.

People of Europe – is it that what you want? Your tax money spent killing people and destroying countries around the globe, and having lost all independence, autonomy as a country, as well as monetary sovereignty – by being run by a military killing machine, called NATO?

It’s time to kill NATO, rather than being killed by NATO. Exit NATO now. It’s time for NEXIT.

 

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Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; TeleSUR; The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance. Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

Featured image by © Primanews.org

What is Lot Size in Forex?

Lot is an important term in Forex. If you read about trading, you’ll probably encounter this word; but not all beginners know exactly what it means. So, what is Lot? How does it affect your forex trading? This article will give you the basic definition of Lot and explain the different types of Lots that traders often use in Forex.

 

What is Lot?

Lot represents the size of your trades in Forex. In another interpretation, Lot is the number of currency units you will trade in Forex.

There are 4 main types of Lots: Standard Lot, Mini Lot, Micro Lot, and Nano Lot.

  • Standard Lot: 1 standard lot is equivalent to the volume of 100,000 units. Whenever you purchase 1 lot of a currency pair, you buy 100,000 units of the base currency (the first currency in a pair). For instance, buying 1 lot of the EUR/USD means you buy 100,000 EUR. Another example is that you want to buy a currency pair EUR/USD at the exchange rate of 1.5 (1 EUR = 1.5 USD). Then, when you buy 1 lot of this currency pair (equal to 100,000 EUR), you purchase $150,000 (100,000*1.5). If you use a leverage of 1:100, you only pay $1,500 (150,000/100= $1,500) to open your position. To do this theoretical exercise with a current example, see this page for live forex rates).
  • Mini Lot: Beginner traders are often advised to trade with mini, micro or nano lots in order to avoid the risk of huge losses. A mini lot is equal to 10,000 units, which is 10% of a standard lot. Hence, when a trader opens an order of 0.1 lots, he is trading 1 mini lot.
  • Micro Lot: A micro lot is equal to 1000 units, which account for 1% of a standard lot. When a trader opens an order of 0.01 lots, he is trading 1 micro lot. For instance, buying 0.01 lots of GBP/USD means you buy 1,000 GBP. There are also several brokers that offer micro lots. 
  • Nano Lot: A nano lot, in Forex, is referred to 10 or 100 units. Why is there a difference of units? Because some forex brokers set nano lot to 10 units while some others set it to 100 units. However, nano lot is not common; only a few brokers offer it. Normally, the nano lot is the preferred choice of newcomers or strategy testers. Therefore, if you purchase a new expert advisor or want to test a new strategy, nano lot is suitable for you, at least for the first weeks.

 

It is important to know your trade volume because it affects your trading strategies and your profits.

Lot Sizes for Commodities

1 lot of Gold is equivalent to a hundred ounces and 1 lot of Silver is equivalent to 5000 ounces. 1 lot of Crude Oil is referred to 100 barrels. Meanwhile, 1 lot of Natural Gas is quantified by 100,000 cubic meters. Those statistics are not written in stone but can change depending on the broker. Therefore, you should obtain information about commodities from the broker you trade with, to get the best understanding.

In short, it is important to know your trade volume because it affects your trading strategies and your profits. A bigger lot may bring you greater risks, which means that you can see big profits or big losses, and smaller lot such as nano lot or mini lot are often suitable for beginner traders who are more comfortable trading with smaller sizes and lower risk.

 

From Cool Britannia to Fool Britannia

By Graham Vanbergen 

It took just twenty years to go from the euphoria of Cool Britannia to Fool Britannia in the guise of the economy destroying and politically toxic ideology of Brexit. The author explains what may be lurking around the corner in the years ahead.

Throughout most of the 1990s, Cool Britannia was a period of increased pride in the culture of Gt. Britain, which was inspired by the swinging 60s – enhanced by its modern-day youth culture. The iconography of the day was British rock and pop, fashion houses and magazines who rode on a high crest of a renewed feeling of optimism following the turbulent years of the 1970s and 80s. It was all Britpop, Euro96, and Alexander McQueen. The economy and mood of the nation were booming.

The cultural renaissance of London, in particular, was much celebrated in the press, it’s pinnacle reached with the election of Tony Blair in 1997 providing a boost to the feeling of optimism – indeed, euphoria.

It didn’t last long.

In 2003, Tony Blair burst the bubble with an illegal invasion of a foreign sovereign state that saw the biggest street protests in Britain and around the world in human history.

The police, National Crime Agency and Electoral Commission are slowly unravelling the frightening realisation that Britain’s democracy, like the children’s fable, has no clothes.

Iraq cast a dark shadow on the nation and when all was said and done, hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians would be dead. The nation bowed its head in shame. It was rapidly followed by corruption scandals; cash-for-honours, cash-for-influence – culminating in the massively damaging parliamentary expenses scandal. Next came cash-for-influence, cash-for-access – the list of political skulduggery only escalated. Then there were the accusations of sexual abuse and more recently rampant racism in the form of Windrush, Anti-Semitism and Islamaphobia at the very heart of the political establishment. In between all of this – the destruction of Libya was another symbol of Britain’s desperate foreign policy decisions that humiliated the nation.

From 1996 to 2016 – a period of just twenty years, Britain has gone from crooning the ‘Cool Britannia’ brand with a beaming collective national pride to a final swansong of Fool Britannia in the Brexit endgame. National resilience, a characteristic of the British people has been replaced with acrimony and hostility.

After abandoning the moderate centre ground, civil war has broken out in both political parties on the left and right.

In this environment, should it be of any surprise that the most financially supported political figure in Britain of 2018/19 is a right-wing thug with a criminal rap sheet as long as your arm – in the guise of Tommy Robinson?1

Tommy Robinson is though a warning shot of what is to come. He was only allowed oxygen in the first place because of the democratic decay that Britain is now experiencing. But it is the method of his emergence that has to be tackled most urgently. The names SCL Elections, Cambridge Analytica, Facebook allied with the words algorithm, dark money and micro-ads make many who should be better-informed scratch their heads. The police, National Crime Agency and Electoral Commission are slowly unravelling the frightening realisation that Britain’s democracy, like the children’s fable, has no clothes.

Democratic Audit charitably put it that there has been – “active external interference through ‘election hacking’ and other, subtler, forms of meddling.” In other words, obscure wealthy donors, foreign state powers and corporations hiding behind front charities and think tanks have attacked Britain’s democracy – and won.2

Today, Britain has a Prime Minister, who, with each new broken promise increases the loss of political capital that took centuries to build.

Every day, the public is now witnessing the unseemly spectacle of Cabinet ministers expressing fraudulent pledges of loyalty to the PM while vigorously fine-tuning their leadership campaigns, with others deserting the posts to which they were elected.

This has exposed nothing more than the pretence that politicians were acting in the national interest and it has led to a degenerating spiral of growing hatred in society through identity politics, finger pointing and shame-blaming.

Britain is unquestioningly marching in lockstep with a political and economic model characterised by moral bankruptcy, avarice and inevitable decline.

At the time of writing, Britain is facing a no-win political dilemma so bad that the government is preparing for a likely repeat (but of a much-intensified version) of the 2011 England riots, which saw looting, arson, and mass deployment of police that ended with £200 million of property damage alone. Its preparations include seconding and recruiting thousands to a new department to determine the ‘battle rhythm’ on the streets of Britain.3

It is also preparing for the genuine threat that violence will emanate from Northern Ireland once again. Almost one-quarter of the domestic surveillance agency MI5 has been relocated there.

It is now evident that the economy will nosedive. This week, the news came that London’s Financial Services industry had transferred nearly £1 trillion of assets to Europe in preparation of Brexit.4

Twenty years is all it took to go from a euphoric nation of optimists at the heart of the European Union project to the crash and burn casino politics of gambling the very prosperity and security of future generations without their explicit consent.

 

What really happened?

While China builds the One Belt, One Road project – a 21st century Maritime Silk Road, involving infrastructure development and investments in 152 countries with international organisations and institutions across Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa – Britain has mistakenly backed America.

The Chinese government calls the initiative “a bid to enhance regional connectivity and embrace a brighter future”. Some observers see it as a push for Chinese dominance in global affairs with a China-centred trading network. America sees it as nothing more than a threat to its dwindling economic prospects.

The Belt and Road Initiative is the largest infrastructure and investment project in history, covering more than 68 countries, including 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.

In contrast, the New American Century was defined not by infrastructure investment to encourage economic growth, trade or cultural exchange but by military strength and global hegemony. It has already ended in disaster and Britain is unquestioningly marching in lockstep with a political and economic model characterised by moral bankruptcy, avarice and inevitable decline.

Brexit is a fool’s game, and the British people have been fooled. It forces Britain out of the biggest game on the global chessboard by default. It also forces Britain to play a game with potentially disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences being geographically located on the wrong side of the board – with our competitors next door and allies at the other end of the road.

Brexit will define Britain for decades to come. So while many may disagree with the sentiment that only bad things will come from it – it is a false hope that it will end in a new era to match Cool Britannia. In the years ahead, the EU may have many problems to deal with but they are stronger together in today’s very uncertain world.

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About the Author

Graham Vanbergen is the founder and contributing editor of TruePublica.org.uk, ThinkPublica, and NewsPublica.com. He is also the author of BREXIT – A corporate coup d’état.

 

 

References

1. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tommy-robinson-isbest -funded-politician-in-uk-0sm5d0blp

2. http://www.democraticaudit.com/2019/03/04/ democratic-decay-the-threat-with-a-thousand-names/

3. https://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/brexit-newcommand- centre-to-detect-battle-rhythm-on-the-streets/

4. https://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/brexit -one-industry-one-city-one-trillion-gone/

What To Know About Dunkin Donuts Franchise Success Rate

Founded in 1946, William Rosenberg started a food delivery service that supplied lunches and snacks specifically to the factory workers in Boston. It was called Industrial Luncheon Services. From his first business was born the famous franchise, Dunkin’ Donuts, that we know of today. Over 70 years after Rosenberg began, Dunkin’ Donuts holds its position consistently as one of the top quick service restaurants (QSR) all over the world. If you’re interested to buy your own Dunkin Donuts franchise, here’s what you need to know about this particular franchise’s success rate:

 

1. Dunkin’ Donuts is the top seller of coffee by the cup.

Even with other coffee shop franchises sprouting up and becoming quite popular all over the world in the past decade or so, Dunkin’ Donuts has managed to hold its position as the leading retailer of iced and hot coffee by the cup. It is also the biggest food chain selling coffee and baked goods worldwide. Dunkin’ Donuts has a stable track record among franchises and consumers alike. To get a clearer picture of starting your own Dunkin Donuts store, you may request for a cost analysis at franchiseknowhow.com.

 

2. This brand has a staggering number of branches spread around the world, and it continues to expand.

Dunkin’ Donuts has almost 11,000 locations in over 30 countries, and it has no plans of stopping soon. In the U.S., the brand currently has over 8,000 branches spread out in 36 states, and all of these are franchisee-owned. Internationally, there are currently over 3,000 franchisee-owned Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants.

The company’s target is to double the quantity of Dunkin’ Donuts franchises over the next 20 years, and this is the goal for the U.S. alone. Lofty targets are set for expansion in other countries as well. Now is actually an optimal time to invest in this franchise.

 

3. Dunkin’ Donuts works with leading experts in the franchising industry to educate and support its franchisees.

Individuals or companies who sign up to become Dunkin Donuts franchisees benefit from the extensive support that the brand provides. If you choose to partner with Dunkin’ Donuts, you get the support you need in terms of the franchising process, business development, site construction, and marketing strategies. The brand likewise provides franchisees with ongoing training for new products every year. Many of these trainings and support materials are accessible via the Dunkin’ Donuts Online University, which features a wide variety of learning modules and resources that would benefit franchise owners and their employees.

 

4. The company follows a stringent screening process in order to get only the most-qualified franchisees.

Part of the secret to Dunkin’ Donuts’ success is that it maintains high standards for selecting its franchisees. As an applicant, you’d have to pass the company’s criminal background check, proof of assets check, as well as credit check. Once you’ve succeeded in these preliminary requirements, you have to prepare your comprehensive assessment of owning your Dunkin’ Donuts franchise and its commercial potential. You likewise have to present your business plan for your chosen location.

More importantly, the company screens applicants by stipulating that franchisees have sufficient resources to start a franchise and sustain it, especially in the early stages of operations. Specifically, Dunkin’ Donuts requires that applicants have a net worth of at least $250,000 and liquid cash requirement of at least $125,000.

 

5. Dunkin’ Donuts offers competitive product prices, highly-appealing menus, and multiple store formats.

While it may cause potential franchisees concern that competitors are working just as hard to grow their number of franchises, Dunkin’ Donuts has its own bankable strategies for staying on the top 3 of Entrepreneur’s 2018 Top Franchises list. For one, the brand offers consumers quality food and beverage products at very affordable prices. Dunkin’ Donuts has also designed its menus to cater to consumers in the morning, throughout the day, and even to diners who want to come in for evening snacks.

Moreover, Dunkin’ Donuts has the advantage of offering franchisees several options in terms of store setup. Franchise owners may choose to put up freestanding locations combined with a drive-through or an end-cap strip-center location partnered with a drive-through. If the area being considered by the franchisee is already densely populated, owners may opt for the restaurant setup without the drive-through option anymore.

As a potential franchisee, you also have the option of situating your store in gasoline stations or convenience stores. Dunkin’ Donuts likewise does partnerships with Wal-Mart branches and other grocery stores. Depending on your assessment of the area where you want to put up your Dunkin’ Donuts franchise, the company has a store setup that can perfectly match the needs of your chosen vicinity. This is a level of flexibility that competitors would be hard-pressed to match.

 

 

Conclusion

With over 70 years of experience in the QSR and franchise industries, Dunkin’ Donuts is well ahead of other companies in terms of all that it can offer its franchisees. The company has a stable and effective brand marketing all over the world, and it continues to thrive under solid management and leadership. Dunkin’ Donuts likewise keeps ahead of the competition by continuously innovating its product offerings to meet the demands of consumers.

 

How An Accounting Degree Can Help You In Business

You’ll have a lot on your plate once you decide to run a business. For starters, you need to find the best suppliers, hire the right people for the job, and come up with unique marketing strategies in order to attract customers. But aside from these, your business’s financial health also plays a significant role in its success. When your business has good financial standing, it’ll be easier for you to determine the appropriate strategies to take and avoid falling into any financial turmoil. These are just some of the reasons why an accounting degree can do wonders for your business.

An accounting degree is basically the study of financial analysis and reporting. It deals with different disciplines involving money. And while accounting degrees differ from one school to another, you can expect that taking this degree will become your platform to know more about accounting, business, and general education. If you’re an entrepreneur or planning to become one anytime soon, get an accounting degree first because it can give you the following benefits:

1. An accounting degree can help with your business’s budget.

Even if you started your business with a lot of money, you still have to be careful about how and where you’re using this resource. If you won’t, you’ll end up being bankrupt or in debt. An accounting degree from a reputable school such as the University of Alabama can help you steer away from this direction. Through this program, you’ll be able to learn how to create and control budgets. Once applied in the business, you’ll know how your money is moving, and you’ll be able to monitor budgets better. The budget you’ll make can influence your business decisions.

Even if you started your business with a lot of money, you still have to be careful about how and where you’re using this resource. If you won’t, you’ll end up being bankrupt or in debt.

2. An accounting degree can help you forecast revenues.

A business is a long-term investment. Once you have one, you have to ensure its longevity; as much as possible, your business should operate for years in order for you to benefit from this investment. If you want your business to live long, learn how to forecast revenues by taking an accounting degree. Once you’re able to complete this program, you’ll have a better idea on whether your business efforts are working, or if you need to change any of it. If you don’t know how to forecast revenues, you’ll never know when it’s safe to spend or save.

3. An accounting degree can help you make personnel decisions.

You need to hire employees when you run a business. You need different people to take care of different areas of your business. However, hiring and firing at the wrong time can create serious setbacks to your business. If this happens, you’ll end up having unsatisfied customers, which can lead to a decrease in profit and market share. Successfully earning an accounting degree will make it easy for you to come up with personnel decisions. You’ll know better when to hire additional employees or when to let them go. If you know how much your business is earning and how much you’re spending on the payroll, you’ll know how to come up with decisions geared for your business’s long-term growth.

Hiring and firing at the wrong time can create serious setbacks to your business. If this happens, you’ll end up having unsatisfied customers, which can lead to a decrease in profit and market share.

4. An accounting degree can help track business expenses.

If you’re running a startup, you need to be extra careful on how you’re spending your finances. If you overspend and buy too many supplies, you won’t have enough money left to pay your employees or implement any marketing strategies. Fortunately, having an accounting degree can help you track all of your business expenses. No matter how big or small your expenses are, you’ll know how to monitor all of these so properly you’ll avoid overspending.

5. An accounting degree can monitor your business’s financial health.

As mentioned, your business’s financial health can make or break its success. If you’re keen on your expenses and earning, you’ll come up with better decisions for the business. Over time, this can affect the amount of success your business will have. An accounting degree enables you to carefully monitor the financial health of your business. When you have this degree, you’ll know whether your business is failing or succeeding, and what strategies should you make or change.

Make The Right Investments

Managing a business isn’t easy. You’ll have to divide your time and energy between different tasks to ensure that your business is running properly. If you want your life as an entrepreneur to become easier, opt to invest in an accounting degree. Taking this program can go a long way in the growth and success of your business!

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The Uhuru blueprint: What if PH had stayed in ICC?

ICC

By Dan Steinbock

Recently, the Philippines withdrew from the ICC opting for the path of US and Russia, China and India. To focus on a new economic future and the battle against drugs and corruption, the government shunned the Uhuru blueprint.

On March 17, the Philippines withdrew from the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has sought to investigate allegations that President Duterte had committed “crimes against humanity.”

The charges were pushed by controversial critics associated with former President Aquino’s Liberal Party and its allies, which – after the 2016 election meltdown – have sought domestic political change increasingly through international pressure.

Fast-forward to an imagined future: If the Philippines had not withdrawn from the ICC, Duterte’s government could have faced the Uhuru blueprint.

The Uhuru blueprint

The Uhuru case undermined the ICC’s credibility, wasting resources and causing gratuitous political turmoil. It also cost to Kenya as ICC’s lingering process began to penalise the perceived legitimacy of Kenya’s political leadership.

In 2010, then-ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo charged then-Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, along with five other government leaders, as an indirect co-perpetrator in the violence that followed Kenya’s 2007-08 post-election violence. Ocampo accused them of “crimes against humanity.”

Despite the ICC process, Uhuru was elected Kenya’s president in 2013. He is a popular politician and the son of the legendary anti-colonial leader Jomo Kenyatta. However, opposition led by Raila Odinga hoped to benefit from his demise.

Reportedly, Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement was named after the Ukrainian “Orange Revolution,” which billionaire George Soros had supported. Soros’s Open Society also funded the pro-Odinga key NGO and Kenyan think-tanks to stop President Uhuru from the 2013 general election. And yet, after a three-year juridical chaos, the ICC charges were dropped in March 2015 for lack of evidence.

Another show began ahead of the 2017 elections. In August, the bank account of Odinga’s daughter was frozen, and a pro-Odinga NGO received more than $5 million from Soros Foundation. In September, Uhuru was re-elected for a second term. Odinga challenged the outcome in the Supreme Court, which ordered a new election. Oddly enough, Odinga withdrew from October election, which resulted in Uhuru’s crushing electoral victory.

Instead of democratic competition, Odinga traveled to London where he met former UN Deputy Secretary General, Lord Mark Malloch Brown, the PR muscle behind Cory Aquino election win in 1986 and the Aquino family since then; and the chair of Smartmatic, whose election technology has unleashed controversies in many countries, including the Philippines. In 2007, Malloch Brown was named vice-chairman of Soros Fund Management and his Open Society Institute.

The Uhuru case undermined the ICC’s credibility, wasting resources and causing gratuitous political turmoil. It also cost to Kenya as ICC’s lingering process began to penalise the perceived legitimacy of Kenya’s political leadership.

When Uhuru served as deputy PM, Kenya’s growth surged to more than 10% in the early 2010s. During the ICC debacle, it more than halved to 4% in 2012 stabilising thereafter at a lower level. Concurrently, Kenyan shilling weakened from 80 to more than 100 the U.S. dollar; plunging more than 25%.

Several ICC cases suggest a similar sequence: First, the target country enjoys promising development. Political destabilisation ensues in the name of “people power.” Financial speculation penalizes economic growth and currency stability, causing capital outflows. If new leaders take over, privatisation of public assets tends to follow. Development potential weakens.

While only a probable future, even an imagined Uhuru blueprint leaves one apprehensive. Without withdrawal from the ICC, it could have recurred in the Philippines, especially as some of the key actors are identical (Soros, Malloch Brown) or comparable (transnationally-supported NGOs and think-tanks, Smartmatic interests).

The ICC liabilities

In Kenya, the ICC effort to prosecute President Uhuru led to the parliament’s call for withdrawal from the ICC and the 2013 African Union summit in which Uhuru accused the ICC of being “a toy of declining imperial powers.” There is good reason for frustration. For a decade or two, the ICC has gone after the poorest countries mainly in Africa, which has suffered the most from colonial plunder.

In Kenya, the ICC effort to prosecute President Uhuru led to the parliament’s call for withdrawal from the ICC and the 2013 African Union summit in which Uhuru accused the ICC of being “a toy of declining imperial powers.”

The ties of Ocampo to Soros-supported organisations stem from early 1990s, when the billionaire infused funds into a prominent real estate backer of the lawyer’s NGO in Argentina. Then, Ocampo worked for Transparency International, a corruption watchdog that has been criticised for bias against developing countries. A decade later, he joined a roundtable by Soros’s Open Society called “Restoring American Leadership – the ICC.”

When the UN Security Council assigned Ocampo to investigate war crimes in Libya, he reportedly shared confidential information with the French government, which was bombing Libya. After he indicted Gaddafi in 2011, he signed a lucrative $3-million contract to advise the Libyan oil billionaire Hassan Tatanaki, presumably to protect him from potential ICC prosecution. Reportedly, he also profited by routing monies to offshore companies in tax havens, as evidenced by the Panama Papers.

Importantly, the ICC’s ability to investigate and prosecute is severely restricted by its mandate. It can only prosecute crimes after its creation in 2002 – which conveniently suspends the worst genocides, crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes of aggression; the four key international crime categories.

Today, there are more than 120 state parties to the Rome Statute. Over 30 countries have signed but not ratified the statute, and there are more than 50 non-signatory countries.

The ICC is financed “primarily” by its member states. About two-thirds of its budget comes from only 10 countries, especially Europe’s former colonial powers. Additional funding is provided – but not detailed – by “voluntary government contributions, international organisations, individuals, corporations, and other entities.” The net effect is a moral hazard. The ICC is not immune to external influence.

U.S., Russia, China and India are not ICC signatories. In Southeast Asia, neither wealthier countries (Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia) nor emerging economies (Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Lao) have signed the Statute.

Philippines and ICC

Unlike his peers, President Aquino signed the Statute in February 2011, right before he aligned Manila’s foreign policy with President Obama’s security pivot to Asia – in contrast with almost all BRIC and ASEAN economies.

Since 2016, the effort to have the ICC intervene in Philippine matters has been further fueled by the domestic meltdown of the Liberal Party and the exploitation of human rights abroad, to advance political agendas at home.

Since its creation, the ICC’s credibility and judicial independence has been deflated.

The world needs a truly international criminal court – not one that targets the most vulnerable members of the international community.

The original commentary was released by The Manila Times on March 25, 2019.

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at India, China and America Institute (USA) Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/

Development Should Guide US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty Review

US-Philippines Officials shaking hands

By Dan Steinbock    

In times of great uncertainty, strategic ambiguity offers little clarity. The review of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty should be guided by the quest for sovereignty and economic development.

 

During his recent visit in the Philippines, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad met Murad Ebrahim, the Filipino Muslim rebel leader who became a regional governor under the Malaysian-brokered peace deal. In the course of the meeting, Mahathir told to Murad that “it’s easy to shoot and kill, but it’s difficult to develop. If there is peace, then everything will come.”

Mahathir’s words offer guidance in intra-country divides, but also in inter-country friction, including the review of the decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States.

In early March, Philippine defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the government should review the MDT to avoid provoking a potential armed conflict with China in the South China Sea. Lorenzana pointed out that the security environment in the region is today “much more complex” than in the early Cold War era, when it was drawn up. “The Philippines is not in a conflict with anyone and will not be at war with anyone in the future.”

Obviously, there are different views about the preferred future of the MDT in Manila, Washington and elsewhere. Typically, most are predicated on geopolitical arguments, treaty texts and interpretations of various statements.

Yet, Mahathir’s wisdom matters. Development is not viable without peace. In the long-run, it is the quest for economic development that should drive the MDT debate.

Sovereignty and “zero problems” foreign policy

Since the early 2000s, the rapid growth of the so-called BRIC economies has greatly inspired debates on economic development. As a large emerging economy with solid structural potential for the future, Philippines could draw from the lessons of these countries.

As I have stressed since my 2014 Mabini lecture at the Foreign Service Institute, there is nothing automatic about strong growth potential. Vital economic, political and security shifts can support or penalize growth.

In light of Mahathir’s views, the most important lesson may well be the “zero problems policy,” which was developed a decade ago by former Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu who lectured in Malaysia in the Mahathir era.

Historically, this approach has been typical to successful industrializers in the emerging world. From the 1980s to 2000s, China was largely focused on inward development, though gradually building international relations. The same goes for India’s industrialization in the past two decades. In Brazil, the most intensive phase of modernization occurred earlier but could only be completed in the Lula era.

Development is not viable without peace. In the long-run, it is the quest for economic development that should drive the MDT debate.

In Southeast Asia, the rise of Singapore only took off after Lee Kuan Yew’s leadership overcame race riots and began a decisive focus on development. In Vietnam, reunification and reforms could only move ahead after colonialism and triumphs against the French and U.S. neocolonial wars. In Indonesia, both Sukarno and Suharto sought rapid industrialization, but it was only completed with peace and stability in the era of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY).

Of course, none of the large emerging economies have been able to avoid all conflicts, many of which stem from colonial legacies following artificial partitions (India), invasions and wars (China), and structural dependency (Brazil). Yet, the effort to reduce friction in foreign relations, in order to focus on economic development has been typical to successful modernization.

What these large emerging economies also share is their insistence on sovereignty. After decades, even centuries of colonial “divide and rule,” they want to control their own future. While all of them seek to cooperate and partner with other nations in different ways, they do not easily tolerate the military presence of other countries within their territories.

As evidenced by the Middle East, such presence is not just a reminder of colonial legacies but can violate their sovereignty and result in destructive proxy conflicts in the region.

 

Economic development first

Following the recalibration of the Philippine foreign policy, there is nothing so challenging in the country’s bilateral relations with China that could not be negotiated in a mutually satisfactory way over time.

But just as Manila would not easily tolerate an anti-Philippine stance by foreign troops in China, it is hardly surprising that Beijing has concerns about any military presence by third-party countries in the Philippines – especially in light of historical track-record.

The Philippines became U.S. colony after the Spanish-American war and the subsequent Philippine-American War. The promised independence materialized only after Japanese invasion and the end of World War II in 1946. Yet, a strong U.S. military presence remained in the country until 1991.

What Manila needs is strengthened sovereignty, strong ASEAN cooperation and development.

Following President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” in 2011, President Aquino and his foreign minister Albert del Rosario achieved the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), as a sort of a prelude to more intimate collaboration with the anticipated presidency of Senator Mar Roxas in 2016.

The scenario was foiled by Duterte’s electoral triumph, which, reportedly, led to a regime change plan by former U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg in fall 2017.

In all these scenarios – from the late 1890s up to present – Philippines has been seen as a geopolitical platform to project U.S. hard power in the region, particularly vis-à-vis China, as most historians acknowledge.  

 

Toward peace, development and prosperity

When defense secretary Lorenzana said last December that the objective of the MDT Treaty review would be to “maintain it, strengthen it, or scrap it,” he presented three clear future scenarios to the country.

Any scenario that would maintain or strengthen the MDT runs the risk of undermining Philippine sovereignty, exposing the country to costly entanglements and potentially fatal conflicts in the region, which, in turn, would undermine the quest for economic development. Instead, what Manila needs is strengthened sovereignty, strong ASEAN cooperation and development.

Successful economic modernization is not viable without sovereignty and focus on development, as evidenced by the history of the BRIC economies (and that of the United States).

When the MDT was signed in 1951, the U.S. and advanced countries still dominated world growth, whereas emerging Asia was struggling amid poverty. Today, China and emerging countries fuel global growth prospects, while emerging Asia is catching up with higher living standards – but only as long as peaceful conditions prevail in the region.

So if economic development is to remain the national priority, these are the facts that should guide the review of the MDT in the new and far more complex security environment.

The original commentary was released by The Manila Times on March 18, 2019

Featured image: U.S. Department of State https://www.flickr.com/photos/statephotos/44736141682/

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world. He is the founder of global consultancy Difference Group Ltd, which focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among and between advanced and emerging economies. He has consulted worldwide and been on media advisory boards of world’s leading media and management consultancies. His commentaries and interviews have been released by some 250 media outlets in all world regions. He has been part of and worked with leading research universities, think-tanks, and government agencies in the United States, Europe, China, India, and all world regions. He is founder of global consultancy DifferenceGroup. 

 

The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime

By Dan Steinbock

In the Aquino era, the focus was on financial flows, which rested on a strong peso. In the Duterte era, it is on the huge investment drive, which can live with a weaker currency. The peso’s political economy is shifting.

Recently, international media have released contradictory peso reports. But the phenomenon is not new. For instance, Bloomberg’s Ditas Lopez first attributed the peso’s decline to Duterte two months before the actual election (April 27, 2016). Yet, after the election, the peso rose for weeks beating forecasts so that by late August 2016 even Bloomberg had to admit that he currency had completed the “best performance in Asia this month.”

That performance was mainly the net effect of a Duterte reassessment by the markets. Most media had vilified him as a threat (social media was a different story). But as Duterte launched his infrastructure agenda, observers realized that the country was not facing a “populist threat,” but a huge investment drive.

Yet, historically, infrastructure drives favor weaker currencies; a fact that got lost in the translation. Instead, much of the media, including Lopez, continued to lament that “Duterte’s peso rout runs counter to the booming Philippine economy” (September 29, 2016). The assumption was that a thriving economy must go hand in hand with a strong peso and that if this is not the case, then the economy cannot really be booming.

Perhaps that’s why Bloomberg later declared that “Asia’s ugly duckling of the year Is the Philippine peso” (March 2, 2017). Unfortunately, the facts told a different story: the peso erased the year’s loss as funds snapped up local stocks only a month later. That did not convince Lopez who now reported that peso is seen as “Asia’s worst performing currency next year” (December 22, 2017). Once again, peso was seen amid another “rout” (June 20, 2018).

The same story prevailed in early 2019, when Bloomberg reported that “peso faces new threat as Duterte gears up for poll” (January 7, 2019). With U.S. dollar at 53 peso, Lopez saw the peso among Asia’s biggest losers this year. Yet, it was followed by a very different piece, which was not authored by Lopez, but David Finnerty, Bloomberg’s foreign-exchange strategist who reported that “peso surprises to become Asia’s best currency” (March 3, 2019). By then, the peso had strengthened to 52. Yet, only hours later, Lopez, together with Siefrid Alegado, reported that “peso slumps as Philippines makes surprise Central Bank pick” (March 4, 2019). In this view, peso had plunged “most since 2013,” although the exchange-rate was 52.20.

As the peso has varied around 0.2% to 0.9% in the past two months, it may be prudent to ask whether such variation merits characterizations as “Asia’s biggest loser” or “Asia’s best currency.” Short-term fluctuations and ideological preferences of “strong” or “weak” peso seldom disclose long-term trends.

In reality, the underlying longer-term forces behind the short-term peso fluctuations seem to be structural. What we are witnessing a shift from one Philippine peso regime to another.

Toward the new peso political economy

Here’s the great difference between the Aquino and Duterte governments: In the Aquino era, the early promises to change the foreign direct investment (FDI) legislation paced an increase of capital flows in the early 2010s. But since the Aquino government failed to change the FDI legislation, these flows represented mainly portfolio and other investments, which eventually reversed into significant outflows. In the Duterte era, early optimism and promises to bring in more FDI have paced a dramatic increase of capital flows, which could be sustained until early 2020s (Figure 1).

 

* Capital Flows (In billions of U.S. dollars, + = inflow)
Source: Data from IMF (Sept. 2018)

Figure 1
In the Aquino era, financial flows ruled; in the Duterte era, investment counts*

 

When inflation reached an intolerable high of 6.7% last fall, it was boosted by a price effect associated with tax reforms, rising oil prices and a failure to manage rice prices. The slowing international economy penalized crude oil, which exceeded $75 in early October but is now around $56 (although a U.S.-Sino trade compromise could fuel prices again).

When inflation exceeded Philippine central bank’s (BSP) target range, rate hikes followed; belatedly. In the early Duterte era, interest rate had been cut from 4% to 3%, which prevailed until early 2018, even as peso weakened from 47 to 50 in 2017 and to 52 by early 2018. It was only when the rate hikes hit almost 5%, that inflation declined and peso strengthened to 52 (Figure 2).

 

Figure 2
How rate hikes subdued the peso in late 2018

 

What’s ahead?

Overheating is expected to weaken in 2019. Thanks to government measures to promote food supplies, inflation eased to 4% in February. Higher real yields are supporting the peso government bonds, despite the BSP projection that the current account deficit (CAD) could widen to 2.3% of GDP in 2019. In the past, the quota system failed to keep rice price in control; now the new import tariff system should stabilize it. The slowdown of electronic exports, which account for more than half of Philippine exports, is associated with U.S. trade wars.

One reason for the contradictory peso projections by the media is that they misjudged the succession outcome at BSP. After the premature death of Nestor Espenilla, the potential candidate list by Bloomberg’s Lopez and Alegado featured some 10 insiders, private-sector executives and wild cards – but not the next chief of the Bank. In a shrewd move, Duterte named his budget secretary Benjamin Diokno as BSP’s new chief.

In the government, Diokno had pursued an expansionary fiscal policy to finance infrastructure investments, along with Duterte’s financial chief Carlos Dominguez III. In the coming months, Diokno might lean toward an interest-rate cut, but only as long as it can be justified with easing inflation.

Some observers feel uncomfortable with current account deficit. Yet, the widening CAD is the effect of the infrastructure drive, which requires imports that support infrastructure expansion. Yet, despite the CAD, peso proved Asia’s best-performing currency in February, when it was fueled by the record $2.9 billion of remittances in December. Also, foreign investment into Philippine stocks and bonds recorded a net inflow of $763 million in January; quadruple the level of the previous year.

Most currencies in emerging markets have depreciated with the U.S. Fed’s rate hikes. But as U.S. expansion may have peaked, the Fed seems less hawkish. Yet, peso outperformance may not persist, thanks to the extremely challenging international environment.

The Duterte fiscal expansion has potential to continue well into the early 2020s – as long as international headwinds can be kept at bay.

The original commentary was released by The Manila Times on March 11, 2019.

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

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