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The World is Dedollarizing

By Peter Koenig

What if tomorrow nobody but the Unites States would use the US-dollar? Every country, or society would use their own currency for internal and international trade, their own economy-based, non-fiat currency. It could be traditional currencies or new government controlled crypto-currencies, but a country’s own sovereign money. No longer the US-dollar. No longer the dollar’s foster child, the Euro. No longer international monetary transactions controlled by US banks and – by the US-dollar controlled international transfer system, SWIFT, the system that allows and facilitates US financial and economic sanctions of all kinds – confiscation of foreign funds, stopping trades between countries, blackmailing ‘unwilling’ nations into submission. What would happen? – Well, the short answer is that we would certainly be a step close to world peace, away from US (financial) hegemony, towards nation states’ sovereignty, towards a world geopolitical structure of more equality.

We are not there yet. But graffities are all over the walls signaling that we are moving quite rapidly in that direction. And Trump knows it and his handlers know it – which is why the onslaught of financial crime – sanctions – trade wars – foreign assets and reserves confiscations, or outright theft – all in the name of “Make America Great Again”, is accelerating exponentially and with impunity. What is surprising is that the Anglo-Saxon hegemons do not seem to understand that all the threats, sanctions, trade barriers, are provoking the contrary to what should contribute to American Greatness. Economic sanctions, in whatever form, are effective only as long as the world uses the US dollar for trading and as reserve currency.

Once the world gets sick and tired of the grotesque dictate of Washington and the sanction schemes for those who do no longer want to go along with the oppressive rules of the US, they will be eager to jump on another boat, or boats – abandoning the dollar and valuing their own currencies. Meaning trading with each other in their own currencies – and that outside of the US banking system which so far even controls trading in local currencies, as long as funds have to be transferred from one nation to another via SWIFT.

The world is increasingly aware of this real threat, an economy built on a house of cards – and countries want to get out of the trap, out of the fangs of the US-dollar.  

Many countries have also realized that the dollar is increasingly serving to manipulate the value of their economy. The US-dollar, a fiat currency, by its sheer money mass, may bend national economies up or down, depending in which direction the country is favored by the hegemon. Let’s put the absurdity of this phenomenon in perspective.
Today, the dollar is based not even on hot air and is worth less than the paper it is printed on. The US GDP is US$ 21.1 trillion in 2019 (World Bank estimate), with current debt of 22.0 trillion, or about 105% of GDP. The world GDP is projected for 2019 at US$ 88.1 trillion (World Bank). According to Forbes, about US$ 210 trillion are “unfunded liabilities” (net present value of future projected but unfunded obligations (75 years), mainly social security, Medicaid and accumulated interest on debt), a figure about 10 times the US GDP, or two and a half times the world’s economic output.

This figure keeps growing, as interest on debt is compounded, forming part of what would be called in business terms ‘debt service’ (interest and debt amortization), but is never ‘paid back’. In addition, there are about one to two quadrillion dollars (nobody knows the exact amount) of so-called derivatives floating around the globe. A derivative is a financial instrument which creates its value from the speculative difference of underlying assets, most commonly derived from such inter-banking and stock exchange oddities, like ‘futures’, ‘options’, ‘forwards’ and ‘swaps’.

This monstrous debt is partly owned in the form of treasury bonds as foreign exchange reserves by countries around the world. The bulk of it is owed by the US to itself – with no plans to ever “pay it back” – but rather create more money, more debt, with which to pay for the non-stop wars, weapon manufacturing and lie-propaganda to keep the populace quiet and in lockstep.

This amounts to a humongous worldwide dollar-based pyramid system. Imagine, this debt comes crashing down, for example because one or several big (Wall Street) banks are on the brink of bankruptcy, so, they claim their outstanding derivatives, paper gold (another banking absurdity) and other debt from smaller banks. It would generate a chain reaction that might bring down the whole dollar-dependent world economy. It would create an exponential “Lehman Brothers 2008” on global scale.

The world is increasingly aware of this real threat, an economy built on a house of cards – and countries want to get out of the trap, out of the fangs of the US-dollar. It’s not easy with all the dollar-denominated reserves and assets invested abroad, all over the globe. A solution may be gradually divesting them (US-dollar liquidity and investments) and moving into non-dollar dependent currencies, like the Chinese Yuan and the Russian Ruble, or a basket of eastern currencies that are delinked from the dollar and its international payment scheme, the SWIFT system. Beware of the Euro, it’s the foster child of the US-dollar!

There are increasingly blockchain technology alternatives available. China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are already experimenting with government-controlled cryptocurrencies to build new payment and transfer systems outside the US-dollar domain to circumvent sanctions. India may or may not join this club – whenever the Modi Government decides which way to bend – east or west. The logic would suggest that India orients herself to the east, as India is a significant part of the huge Eurasian economic market and landmass.

Libra is or would be a privately-owned cryptocurrency – and – coming from Facebook – could be destined to replace the dollar by the same people who are now abusing the world with the US-dollar. 

India is already an active member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – an association of countries that are developing peaceful strategies for trade, monetary security and defense, comprising China, Russia, India, Pakistan, most Central Asian countries and with Iran waiting in the wings to become a full-fledged member. As such, SCO accounts for about half of the world population and a third of the world’s economic output. The east has no need for the west to survive. No wonder that western media hardly mention the SCO which means that the western average public at large has no clue what the SCO stands for, and who are its members.

Government-controlled and regulated blockchain technology may become key to counter US coercive financial power and to resist sanctions. Any country is welcome to join this new alliance of countries and new but fast-growing approach to alternative trading – and to finding back to national political and financial sovereignty.

In the same vein of dedollarization are Indian “barter banks”. They are, for example, trading Indian tea for Iranian oil. Such arrangements for goods to be exchanged against Iranian petrol are carried out through Indian “barter banks”, where currencies, i.e. Iranian rials and Indian rupees, are handled by the same bank. Exchange of goods is based on a list of highest monetary volume Indian trade items, against Iranian hydrocarbon products, for example, Iran’s large import of Indian tea. No monetary transaction takes place outside of India, therefore, US sanctions may be circumvented, since no US bank or US Treasury interference can stop the bilateral trade activities.

At this point, it might be appropriate to mention Facebook’s attempt to introduce a globe-spanning cryptocurrency, the Lira. Little is known on how exactly it will (or may) function, except that it would cater to billions of facebook members around the world. According to Facebook, there are 2.38 billion active members. Imagine, if only two thirds – about 1.6 billion – opened a Libra account with Facebook, the floodgate of libras around the world would be open. Libra is or would be a privately-owned cryptocurrency – and – coming from Facebook – could be destined to replace the dollar by the same people who are now abusing the world with the US-dollar. It may be projected as the antidote to government-controlled cryptocurrencies, thus, circumventing the impact of dedollarization. Beware of the Libra!

Despite US and EU sanctions, German investments in Russia are breaking a 10-year record in 2019, by German business pouring more than €1.7 billion into the Russian economy in the first three months of 2019. According to the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce, the volume of German companies’ investments in Russia is up by 33% – by € 400 million – since last year, when total investments reached € 3.2 billion, the largest since 2008. Despite sanctions which amounted to about € 1 billion combined for 140 German companies surveyed and registered with the Chamber of Commerce, and despite western anti-Russia pressure, Russia-German trade has increased by 8.4 percent and reached nearly € 62 billion in 2018.

In addition, notwithstanding US protests and threats with sanctions, Moscow and Berlin continue their Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project which is expected to be finished before the end of 2019. Not only is the proximity of Russian gas a natural and logical supply source for Germany and Europe, it will also bring Europe independence form the bullying sales methods of the United States. And payments will not be made in US dollars. In the long-run, the benefits of German-Russian business and economic relations will far outweigh the illegal US sanctions. Once this awareness has sunk in, there is nothing to stop Russian-German business associations to flourish, and to attract other EU-Russian business relations – all outside of the dollar-dominated banking and transfer system.

If Turkey exits NATO, the entire European NATO alliance will be shaken and questioned. 
President Trump’s trade war with China will eventually also have a dedollarization effect, as China will seek – and already has acquired – other trading partners, mostly Asian, Asian-Pacific and European – with whom China will deal in other than dollar-denominated contracts and outside the SWIFT transfer system, for example using the Chinese International Payment System (CIPS) which, by the way, is open for international trade by any country across the globe.

This will not only circumvent punishing tariffs on China’s exports (and make US customers of Chinese goods furious, as their Chinese merchandise is no longer available at affordable prices, or no longer available at all), but this strategy will also enhance the Chinese Yuan on international markets and boost the Yuan even further as a reliable reserve currency – ever outranking the US-dollar. In fact, in the last 20 years, dollar-denominated assets in international reserve coffers have declined from more than 90% to below 60% and will rapidly decline further as Washington’s coercive financial policies prevail. Dollar reserves are rapidly replaced by reserves in Yuan and gold, and that even in such staunch supporters of the west as is Australia.

Washington also has launched a counter-productive financial war against Turkey, because Turkey is associating and creating friendly relations with Russia, Iran and China – and, foremost, because Turkey, a NATO stronghold, is purchasing the Russian S-400 cutting-edge air defense system – a new military alliance which the US cannot accept. As a result, the US is sabotaging the Turkish currency, the Lira which has lost 40% since January 2018.

Turkey will certainly do whatever it can to get out from under the boot of the US-dollar stranglehold and currency sanctions – and further ally itself with the East. This amounts to a double loss for the US. Turkey will most likely abandon all trading in US dollars and align her currency with, for example, the Chinese Yuan and the Russian ruble, and, to the detriment of the Atlantic alliance, Turkey may very likely exit NATO. Abandoning NATO will be a major disaster for the US, as Turkey is both strategically, as well as in terms of NATO military power one of the strongest – if not the strongest – nation of the 29 NATO members, outside of the US.

If Turkey exits NATO, the entire European NATO alliance will be shaken and questioned. Other countries, long wary of NATO and of storing NATO’s nuclear weapons on their soils, especially Italy and Germany, may also consider exiting NATO. In both Germany and Italy, a majority of the people is against NATO and especially against the Pentagon waging wars form their NATO bases in their territories in Germany in Italy.

To stem against this trend, the former German Defense Minister, Ursula von der Leyen, from the conservative German CDU party, is being groomed to become Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor as President of the European Commission. Mr. Juncker served since 2014. Ms. Von der Leyen was voted in tonight, 17 July, with a narrow margin of 9 votes. She is a staunch supporter of NATO. Her role is to keep NATO as an integral part of the EU. In fact, as it stands today, NATO is running the EU. This may change, once people stand up against NATO, against the US vassal, the EU Administration in Brussels, and claim their democratic rights as citizens of their nation states.  

Europeans sense that these Pentagon initiated and ongoing wars and conflicts, supported by Washington’s European puppet allies, may escalate into a nuclear war, their countries’ NATO bases will be the first ones to be targeted, sinking Europe for the 3rd time in 100 year into a world war. However, this one may be all-destructive nuclear – and nobody knows or is able to predict the damage and destruction of such a catastrophe, nor the time of recovery of Mother Earth from an atomic calamity.

So, let’s hope Turkey exits NATO. It would be giant step towards peace and a healthy answer to Washington’s blackmail and sabotage against Turkey’s currency. The US currency sanctions are, in the long run, a blessing. It gives Turkey a good argument to abandon the US dollar and gradually shift towards association with eastern moneys, mainly the Chinese Yuan, thereby putting another nail in the US-dollar’s coffin.

However, the hardest blow for Washington will be when Turkey exits NATO. Such a move will come sooner or later, notwithstanding Ms. Von der Leyen’s battle cries for NATO. The breaking up of NATO will annihilate the western power structure in Europe and throughout the world, where the US still maintains more than 800 military bases. On the other hand, the disbanding of NATO will increase the world’s security, especially in Europe – for all the consequences such an exit will bear. Exiting NATO and economically exiting the US-dollar orbit is a further step towards dedollarization, and a blow to US financial and military hegemony.

Finally, investments of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also called the New Silk Road, will be mostly made in Yuan and local currencies of the countries involved and incorporated in one or more of the several BRI land and maritime routes that eventually will span the globe. Some US-dollar investments may serve the People’s Bank of China, China’s Central Bank, as a dollar-divesting tool of China’s huge dollar reserves which currently stands at close to two trillion dollars.

The BRI promises to become the next economic revolution, a non-dollar economic development scheme, over the coming decades, maybe century, connecting peoples and countries – cultures, research and teaching without, however, forcing uniformity, but promoting cultural diversity and human equality – and all of it outside the dollar dynasty, breaking the nefarious dollar hegemony.

About the Author

 Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; TeleSUR; The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.
Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

First published by the New Eastern Outlook – NEO

Will online poker growth ever slow down?

Since it first arrived on the scene, online poker has been something of a polarizing sport. There were traditionalists who scorned the online version of the game, and then there were the realists who knew that the internet was the future of everything. There’s no need to point out who was right with that one. In the years since, online poker has enjoyed an incredible boom, but does it show any signs of easing up soon?

 

When the Boom Began

The year was 2003, and a new face was at the final table of the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. His name was rather aptly Chris Moneymaker, and he was about to change the face of online poker forever. You see, Chris was a new breed. He qualified through an online satellite and had learned his trade at his PC, grinding his way through the small hours of the morning. No one took him seriously until he revealed his winning hand and went home with a cool $2.5 million in prize money.

The boom started almost immediately with part-time poker players realizing that they, too, could make it big by playing online. Not only that but established pros finally figured out that online poker rooms weren’t the domain of wannabe pros but practice grounds for the stars of the future. Online platforms began to spring up overnight seemingly, and the boom was well and truly underway. If you are looking for a trusted platform to gamble on, be sure to check out some real money poker rooms like pokerstars.

 

The Global Rise

It took little time for online poker to become one of the most popular games on the internet. Casual players saw it as an opportunity to learn and possibly make some cash in their free time while seasoned players thought of it as a platform for practice. Global revenue went stratospheric, and players rejoiced in this convenient and cheap way to play the game they loved.

 

Poker continues to grow globally. Photo Credit: 888poker screenshot

 

However, it wasn’t long before the matter of legislation got in the way of their fun. Governments around the world were yet unprepared for the boom, and many had to force through legislation to grant licenses to online poker providers. But some countries such as the U.S. decided on a different route, and within a few short years, certain shores prohibited online poker.

That didn’t stop the rise of the game, though, and global revenue figures continued to rise, regardless of the geographical limitations imposed by some governments. However, the fact that players needed a laptop or PC to play did somewhat curtail industry growth. But that was about to change.

 

Mobile Gaming Rules the Roost

By 2016, online poker has plateaued somewhat, but the rise of mobile gaming opened the game to an entirely new audience. Mobile gaming allowed even the most casual of casual players to download an app and have a go at the game. Players who were already in love with the game could also now play it on the bus or the train. It was the shot in the arm that the industry needed at the time.

Mobile gaming has increased steadily in recent years.

 

The U.S. Makes a U-Turn

But perhaps the most significant event in online poker’s recent history is the apparent U-turn by the U.S. government. Or to be more precise individual state governments. In 2011, the Department of Justice (DOJ) released its formal legal opinion of the now-famous Interstate Wire Act of 1961.

Originally, the act was to stop mobsters from moving money illegally between states, with many believing that it also covered online activity. But the DOJ said that they believed it did not cover activities that were not related to a sporting event. Nevada and New Jersey took note and soon online poker was again on the table.

Online poker giant 888poker became one of the leaders of the industry in the U.S., paving the way in the state of New Jersey, specifically. Their success in New Jersey encouraged other states and poker providers to consider entering the market. As a result, we now have several states pushing through legislation to bring their poker industry online.

New Jersey, Nevada and Delaware are the three leading states for online poker, with Pennsylvania and West Virginia set to come online soon. There are also quite a few states waiting in the wings to see how things work out for those five. Should things go well, and they probably will, it’s realistic to expect a minimum of 40 states to legalize online poker soon. Imagine what that will do for global online poker revenue figures.

 

China Takes a Stand

However, the world’s most populous country who, of course, rarely agree with their American friends hasn’t mirrored the U.S. approach. Last year, on a day now known as Black Friday, the Chinese Government decided not to recognize poker as a sport. It was a huge blow to the nation’s blossoming online poker industry, with many heavyweights of the game losing their investment in the local game.

Many felt that the Chinese ban would have a detrimental effect on the global industry, especially in Asia, but there has been little negative impact. Yes, the local game has been completely crippled, but the global game has soldiered on regardless. If anything, global figures have increased since the ban.

So, will online poker growth ever slow down? For the immediate future, we find it incredibly hard to believe that anything barring a complete shutdown of the internet could stop the giant that is online poker. And though there will, no doubt, come a time when the industry plateaus, as it did before the rise of mobile gaming, that won’t happen for quite some time.

 

Feature image: Online poker is a serious money maker for all involved. (Photo Credit: Pixabay / CC0 1.0)

 

How To Improve Your Business Finances

Every entrepreneur wants to run a profitable business. Your finances play a fundamental role in the success of your business, so learning to manage them more efficiently is an effective way to grow your business and increase revenue. With this in mind, here are some key ways to improve your business finances.

 

Keep on top of your finances

The first step to improving your financial position is by staying on top of your business finances. It is vital that you keep a clear record of your accounting and legal paperwork, including your taxes. Make sure you know the requirements for tax rebates, as your business may be eligible for certain reductions and tax refunds. It is also important to have a cash flow budget in place that you stick with. Having a cash flow budget will help you manage your business more efficiently and will ensure that you have enough money to cover business essentials. It will also help you create financial forecasts and set goals for growth and revenue within your business.

 

Attract and retain quality staff

Having a highly-skilled, loyal workforce will, of course, have a significant impact on productivity and overall profit within your business. This will help improve your financial position and allow your business to expand and grow. It is therefore important to invest in recruitment efforts and focus on attracting the best quality staff. Consider hiring applicants who have completed additional qualifications like a Master of Business Administration (MBA). These graduates have been equipped with the critical skills needed to be successful in business. Check out online.suffolk.edu for more information on how your business can benefit from hiring MBA graduates. Offering attractive employee packages and additional benefits is one of the most effective ways to attract and retain high-quality staff.

 

Identify ways to cut expenses

As a business owner, you should review business expenses and key financial information regularly. Identifying ways to cut monthly expenses will give you more flexibility when dealing with financial matters and will help increase revenue in your business. Even small changes could make a big difference to your business finances. Here are some simple ways to cut costs and save money in your business:

•  If you need to replace old office equipment or furniture, consider buying refurbished items instead of brand new ones.

•  Try to purchase office supplies in bulk to help you negotiate deals and save money.

•  Switch to difference insurers, banks, or suppliers to get better deals.

 

Improve customer service

The service that customers receive will have a huge effect on your finances and the overall success of your business. This is because customers who are unsatisfied with your service are unlikely to purchase things from your company in the future. Whereas, happy customers will often return to your business and recommend your company to others. This, in turn, will help increase sales and revenue, thus putting your company is a better financial position. It is, therefore, in your interests to invest in ways to improve the customer experience and ensure that you provide every customer with the highest level of service possible.

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Why playing CASINOSECRET casino is better than other forms of online betting

There are many reasons why playing on an online is better that just gambling in store as it offers accessible and anonymous entertainment with the masses without the many psychological tricks in a physical casino to make you spend more than you really need; as per the design layout of a casino. By gambling online you have the ultimate choice in what you do. You can see how much you have spent, how long and even set limits on what you could spend. You could also leave whenever you want and game whenever you desire; all from the comfort of your own home never needing to leave bed and accessible from anywhere that has an internet or mobile connection. This seems great for the ordinary player or any other in fact whom, wish to dodge the traps of a physical casino and just want to play a few games. Online gambling seems far superior then traditional gambling but what makes CASINOSECRET online casino far superior than any other method of online gambling?

Well there are many but the main reasons are that the company is a registered company and therefore must adhere to all legal practices in the nations they operate in (in non-boring talk this means that they are trustworthy and won’t steal from you). This would already be a good step in CASINOSECRET’s name as many online gambling sites are that are shady, thirst and unethically profit driven. However, this is an online casino that you can trust as it must adhere and is bound to good gambling practises.

The main reasons are that the company is a registered company and therefore must adhere to all legal practices in the nations. 
Furthermore, this site encompasses all those who wish to be entertained and therefore language isn’t a barrier (once again unlike a traditional casino). The site offers many language options with the main language of the site being Japanese but it being easily translatable to any other language in just mere seconds   a great plus to anyone whom don’t know the native tongue spoken in the country they are trying to play in. Furthermore, due to the many languages that are available it allows for you to play against many players internationally which is a huge benefit as you’re playing against another human relying on skill rather than just luck. On top of that by playing internationally you get to meet new people and expand your culture and possibly make lifelong new friends.

Another benefit of CASINOSECRET is that it offers quirky and cool local Japanese games which, brings something new to the table; breathing new excitement to your new depth to your entertainment. This also allows you to learn about something new which is always welcome an exciting. Furthermore, by learning about the new dazzling and extravagant Japanese games you could also learn about the Japanese gambling culture which, you can share with all your friends at work and quickly become the most interesting person. In addition to that by learning the game you could also play with Native people whom already know the game allowing for bonding to occur during games. Who knows what might happen? Maybe you’ll end up one day visiting japan to play with the same new friends? Nobody knows until you go and do it; so go and explore the wonderful website Casinosecret today.

Feature image source: https://blog.gaijinpot.com/7-places-in-tokyo-for-gamers/

China-US Trade War: Japan G20 Déjà vu?

By Jack Rasmus

This past June 29, 2019 Trump and China president, Xi, met again at the G20 in Japan in the midst of a potential further escalating the trade war. Has anything changed as a result of their meeting? Or is it just deja vu of their prior G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on December 2, 2018?

In the months leading up to the December Buenos Aires meeting between Trump and Xi, US neocon trade negotiators (Lighthizer, Navarro) had scuttled in May 2018 what was then a pending trade deal negotiated by US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and his Beijing counterparts.  Thereafter, China had refused throughout the summer and fall 2018 to meet with Trump, despite Trump’s repeated attempts to lure Xi back to the bargaining table with threats and ‘happy talk’ praising Xi before the US November midterm Congressional elections. Xi did not take the bait. Trump and Xi finally met again at the G20 in Buenos Aires on December 2, 2018. The outcome was more typical Trump public ‘happy talk’ laced with platitudes about how he and Xi had such a great relationship; how the two countries trade teams would now work toward an agreement; and how Trump in the interim would not impose a further hike in existing tariffs on China $200 billion imports, scheduled for January 2019.  Stock markets began to recover, after their 30% swoon of late 2018, in expectation of a trade deal—assisted at the time as well by the US central bank, the Fed, capitulating in late December 2018 to Trump demands to stop raising US interest rates.

Following the Buenos Aires G20, the two countries’ trade teams resumed negotiations in February 2019 and it seemed were about to reach an agreement once again. But, once again, as in May 2018, the negotiations broke down a second time this past May 2019—once again scuttled by the US neocons and anti-China hardliners who had retained control of the trade negotiations and access to Trump’s ear.

In the aftermath of the Japan G20 meeting of June 29, once more the same ‘spin is in’ that followed the Buenos Aires meeting: i.e. Trump declares publicly he has such a great relationship with Xi; Trump announces there’s a great deal now pending between the two countries; and the US and China trade teams will soon begin again to thrash out the details on the remaining 10% or so of US-China trade differences. In the interim, Trump announced he will withhold imposing his threatened increase in tariffs (this time on an additional $325 billion of China imports to the US). 

In other words, coming out of the latest G20 it’s almost an exact déjà vu all over again on June 29, 2019, as it was at last December 2018’s G20 meeting between Trump and Xi in Buenos Aires.

The key question is—in the wake of the second collapse of a pending US-China trade deal this past May 2019—will we now also see a repeat again of the US maneuvers that occurred following the break up of the first deal of May 2018? Or has Xi and the Chinese finally ‘got Trump’s number’, as they say, and will refuse to come back to the negotiating table until after the 2020 election, unless Trump provides firm assurances of a compromise.  Moreover, that compromise, should it occur, will have to include the US withdrawing its latest demands for a China capitulation on the technology issue, which has always been the crux of the US-China trade dispute.


The First Trade Deal Blow Up: May 2018

In March 2018 the US launched its first salvo against China with US trade representative, Lighthizer’s, report that China was stealing US technology and that China’s 2025 program was a plan for it to surpass the US next generation technology development (G5, AI, cybersecurity)during the next decade. Trump administration public statements, in contrast, focused on the China trade deficit and on China policies preventing US corporations’ majority ownership of its operations in China. Trump immediately imposed tariffs on an initial list of China imports to the US; China responded with a smaller list.

China quickly engaged with the US on these various issues, sending a team to finalize terms on a trade deal to the US in May. Trade negotiation teams traveled back and forth between Beijing and Washington. It looked like a deal was imminent.

As a deal got closer, in May 2018, US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, assumed control of the negotiations with the Chinese.  Neocon trade advisor, Peter Navarro, a member of the US trade team, was thrown off the US team. Mnuchin had apparently cut a deal with China: the latter would buy trillions of more US farm and manufacturing goods over the next five years, US bankers and multinational corporations would be given 51% or more access to ownership of their operations in China, and China would pass legislation placing limits on US corporate tech transfer in China.

No, the demand was the limiting of China nextgen tech development. China would not be allowed to leapfrog the US militarily in the 2020s. 
But then the neocons struck back. With friends in the Pentagon and Congress they went after China corporations. First it was ZTE. Then Huawei. Navarro was put back on the US trade team. Lighthizer was put in charge again, and Mnuchin formally a co-chair of the US trade team but in reality demoted to a role of watching over Lighthizer and the neocons now once again running the show.  The technology issue was back in as the priority issue. That’s next generation technology—i.e. 5G, Artificial Intelligence, and cybersecurity. The key technologies not only for the industries and trade of the coming decade, but also the key technologies for military hegemony for another decade.  The neocons, the Pentagon, the US Military Industrial Complex, and their friends chairing the powerful military committees in the Senate and House demand that China not simply restrict tech transfer from US corporations doing business now in China. No, the demand was the limiting of China nextgen tech development. China would not be allowed to leapfrog the US militarily in the 2020s.

The trade team neocons—Lighthizer, Navarro, and now Bolton in the background—had gained Trump’s ear and whoever gets to Trump last usually gets him to do what they want. Moderates, including the generals, were leaving the Trump administration like rats departing the ship at dockside. Besides, during the summer 2018 Trump had turned his attention to the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations and the upcoming November 2018 US midterm elections. Further progress on US-China trade could wait. The US had already gained concessions from China on two major themes: China purchases of US farm goods and 51% ownership. That would still be on the table when negotiations resumed. Let China think about the tech issue further in the interim, until after the November US elections. Trump tried over the summer and fall of 2018 to entice Xi to return to the table, but Xi did not take the bait. To do so would only give Trump another event to boast to his political base during the November 2018 elections. Xi would wait. And he’ll now wait again.

Delaying negotiations after the May 2018 blow up of negotiations would, of course, mean US farmers would continue to feel the pinch of China reduction of purchases of soybeans and other commodities. But Trump softened that blow with tens of billions of dollars of US subsidies to US farmers in 2018, to be followed by tens of billions more in early 2019.


G20 Buenos Aires Meeting and After

Immediately after the November 2018 elections, Trump renewed efforts to meet with Xi. They did so at the end of 2018 at the G20 in Buenos Aires. Lots of fanfare and typical Trump hyberbole followed: President Xi was such a good buddy. A great deal was in the works and would soon be announced. In the interim, Trump suspended raising tariffs to 25% on existing $200 billion of China imports as negotiations resumed February 2019.  Lots of happy talk about all the progress being made at the G20, as the US stock markets recovered nicely in the first quarter of 2019.

But negotiations broke down once again, a second time, in May 2019 (as they had a year previous in May 2018). The official US line fed to the media was that the Chinese had reneged at the last minute, and added new demands and proposals—when in fact it was the US that introduced last minute demands it knew the Chinese could not accept, in the week before the China delegation was to come to Washington to finalize the deal. 

The Chinese were told the US would not stop its proceedings against Huawei; moreover, it would escalate its pressure on US allies to sever 5G investment plans with Huawei as well. 

This time the Lighthizer-Navarro-Bolton team not only demanded stronger limits on tech transfer from US corporations in China.  Now the demand was China would have to sever all its companies’ relations with US tech companies in the US —and not just Huawei.  A new US offensive was launched to intimidate US researchers doing joint tech research work with Chinese counterparts in US universities to end their joint cooperation;  US tech companies in China were quietly told to start planning to move their supply chains out of China in the medium to long run; and the Chinese were told the US would not stop its proceedings against Huawei; moreover, it would escalate its pressure on US allies to sever 5G investment plans with Huawei as well.  And that was not all. As the China delegation made final plans to come to Washington, the US team signaled publicly that the US would retain tariffs even if there were a deal. The excuse was the US needed to retain tariffs as a threat if China didn’t fully implement its concessions to the US. And then there was the especially insulting demand by the US: China would have to share even its independent technology development in 5G, cyber, and AI with the US as part of a deal.

The China delegation came over anyway, but obviously, no deal was concluded. Perhaps it was to verify whether Trump really agreed with these onerous terms thrown up at the last minute by the Lighthizer-Bolton neocons. They left empty-handed. Apparently, it was true.


How Trump and the US Now Negotiates

The Trump approach was predictable. This is how he did business before becoming President. And it is how he now runs the US government:  Make public declarations about what a great person his negotiating partner is. Make public statements how a trade deal is imminent. Then at the last minute throw up unacceptable demands, threats, and intimidating statements. Allow negotiations to break off.  When the other side does so, blame them for failing to make a deal. Then wait and see if the other side makes concessions and signals it wants to return to the bargaining table. When they do, privately or publicly, return to negotiations with more demands for concessions. If necessary, play this same game over again.

China and Xi were burned once by these maneuvers back in May 2018. Now they met again at the recent G20 in Japan and the negotiations will once again resume. Trump adviser Larry Kudlow has noted ‘phone calls’ are occurring back and forth between the US and China negotiating teams. But there’s no indication of any meetings in the works between Trump and Xi.  Nor will there likely be soon. It is not likely the Chinese will be burned again.  In fact, they have publicly declared no deal unless Trump at minimum withdraws his May 2019 trade team threat to retain tariffs whether a deal is reached or not. That’s likely a ‘non-starter’ until Trump takes it off the table. Positions may be hardening, not softening.

In the interim, as during the days following Buenos Aires, following the most recent Osaka G20, Trump is again repeating platitudes and praise for Xi. He’s publicly announced that China has made great concessions to buy record levels of US farm goods.  But China had conceded that and put it on the bargaining table almost a year ago! It had promised to buy $1 trillion more in US goods over the next five years.  So Trump’s just repeating what has already been agreed to some time ago. Nevertheless, for Trump ‘spin is in’ once again post-Osaka. 

That should hold US business and farm criticisms at bay for several more months—along with the $20 billion more in farm subsidies announced by Trump—likely paid for by cuts to US food stamps, housing subsidies, education funding, etc.  Should another, third round of farm subsidies follow in 2020 if no trade deal is concluded, total direct Trump farm subsidies will exceed $50 billion.


What’s Next: More Déjà vu? Or a Deal?

It should be clear that as of July 2019 there’s no imminent China-US trade deal.  Trump is just buying time.  No additional tariffs—i.e. $325 billion on remaining China imports—will likely be imposed in the interim.  A hiatus has occurred at least for the remainder of 2019. US business pressure and growing criticism of Trump’s trade policy, and growing farm sector discontent, will prevent Trump from raising more tariffs—at least for now.

But US pressure to drive China tech companies out of the US economy and, if possible, from the economies of US allies in Europe and elsewhere, will no doubt continue. So too will continue US pressure to isolate China company and University researchers in the US and force them to leave. And longer term, the US will continue to press US corporations to relocate their supply chains from China to elsewhere in Asia (Vietnam? South Korea?) or even Mexico.

When will a China-US trade deal then be concluded?  Not likely this year. Trump probably now wants to wait until closer to the 2020 election. And the neocons still have his ear and are still driving US trade policy (indeed, US foreign policy on a number of fronts as well). And they don’t want a deal…ever! Unless of course China agrees to capitulate on the central issue of next generation technology development.

For the remainder of 2019, US policy will be to squeeze China tech corporations, to make operations so uncomfortable for them they will have to leave the US, as well as US allied economies.  Trump will continue to collect tariffs from China imports, which he sees as a plus, while increasing his public threats that China not to allow its currency, the Yuan-Reminbi, to devalue which would negate the hikes in US tariffs.  Meanwhile, domestically Trump policy ‘spin’ will try to publicly make it appear (to Trump’s farm base and US business in general) that the US and China are working in good faith toward an agreement.

Longer term, into 2020, if the US neocons retain control of negotiations and Trump’s ear, they will continue to insist the US retain tariffs, insist on China capitulating on the tech issue, and continue to go after China tech companies in the US and worldwide. That means there will be no agreement even in 2020. 


From Tariff-Trade War to Economic War?

It’s probably becoming increasingly clear to the Chinese that the US has not launched a ‘tariff war’, as Trump likes to call it. In fact it’s a stretch to even call it a ‘trade war’.  US policy is driving longer term toward a bonafide economic war between the US and China.

In the nearer term, the current differences may well transform the ‘tariff’ war into a ‘currency war’ that will spread contagion and reverberate globally across other economies—at a time at which the global capitalist economy is slowing fast and approaching as well a new financial instability. 

And China doesn’t have to ‘manipulate’ its currency. All it has to do is allow the Yuan-Renminbi to devalue naturally in response to US policy and the slowing global economy. That devaluation would more than offset most Trump tariff hikes. So far, China has intervened in global money exchange markets to prevent this—contrary to the Trump/Neocon charge it is manipulating its currency.  All it needs to do is allow it to occur according to prevailing economic and market forces and just not intervene in global money markets further to prop up the Yuan.

Then there’s China’s $1.3 trillion of US assets, mostly Treasuries, held by its central bank. It could slow its purchase of new US government debt, which it appears it recently may now be doing.  Should the trade-economic war intensify, it could stop or even sell off its dollar hoard. That would drive up long term interest rates in the US and the value of the US dollar still more, further slowing global growth and negatively impacting emerging market economies and US multinational profits repatriation from those economies.

Rising US rates and the dollar could precipitate another stock and junk bond sell-off, similar to that which occurred in late 2018. And Trump doesn’t like stock market declines.

There are numerous other ‘actions’ the Chinese could take in response to US neocons intensifying or prolonging the US-China tariff-trade war, further driving the US-China differences into a broader economic war.  Even if US neocons don’t understand this, or don’t care, which is more likely, widespread business and banking interests do and could intervene more forcefully should the drift toward economic war continue.

And there’s a wild card in the trade war deck that may yet check the neocons influence perhaps. That’s the current softening of the US and China economies. That could force both sides to an agreement.  Should the US economy slip into a recession by 2020, or even late 2019, as this writer has predicted—Trump may grab the major concessions already on the negotiating table, i.e. China purchases of $1 trillion more US goods and China’s concession to allow US majority ownership rights in China.  Trump could then announce (and exaggerate) having a big victory in trade negotiations over China—all just before the 2020 US elections.

China’s economy is slowing, but so too is the US. The US 1st Quarter GDP numbers were propped up by temporary factors associated with inventory over-investment and net exports, both of which are fading rapidly this quarter. Moreover, consumption is barely growing and business investment is turning negative.   The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is projected to start lowering US interest rates this month, giving further impetus to the projected massive $1.5 trillion in stock buybacks and dividend payouts scheduled by Fortune 500 corporations this year. That may succeed in putting a temporary floor under stock markets. But the real economy is being driven to slowdown, or worse, by year end. And the bond markets and yield curves are clearly signaling that development.

A more rapidly slowing US economy, now clearly beginning, may change the trade negotiations dynamic. And if the US slips into recession the pressure to cut a deal will grow. Trump may yet be convinced to take the China concessions on the table and postpone US demands for a China capitulation on nextgen technologies, to be raised anew after the 2020 elections or even before to allow Trump to appear aggressively ‘America First’ targeting China to his political base in the weeks just before the 2020 election.

Because for Trump a ‘deal is never a deal’, it’s never concluded, but reopened whenever he wants it to be.

Breaking an agreement is standard practice for Trump.  Just ask the Mexicans, where Trump threatened more tariffs even after concluding a new NAFTA 2.0 deal.  

Breaking an agreement is standard practice for Trump.  Just ask the Mexicans, where Trump threatened more tariffs even after concluding a new NAFTA 2.0 deal. Or the Iranians, who thought they had an agreement with the US. Or the Europeans who thought they had a Climate deal. For Trump, negotiations are a long term process, punctuated by happy talk events, followed by more threats, insults, new sanctions, and intimidations, and the reopening of deals once thought concluded by opponents.

In other words, even if a China-US trade deal is done next year the trade war will not be over. It will have just begun, as it evolves toward a broader ‘economic’ war after the 2020 elections, or even before. 

The key to a China trade deal sooner rather than later is whether Trump and US big economic elites can convince the neocons and military industrial complex to agree to a short term deal with China that provides only token nextgen technology concessions—with the assurance that the US will reopen and resume the trade-economic offensive after the 2020 elections once again.

For US economic and political elites are in general agreement with the neocons behind the Trump daily trade war circus. They will not allow China to challenge the US next decade by leveraging the nextgen technologies that are the key to both economic and military hegemony by 2030.  It’s just a question of timing. Should they decide for domestic political reasons to take two bites of the bargaining apple from the Chinese now, and come back later for the big bite: i.e. the fight over nextgen technology.  Or will they continue to insist on three bites now, all at once.

This writer’s guess and prediction is that the slowing US and global economy will result in the former. The US will grab the China concessions now on the negotiating table, and demand more after the 2020 elections.  For the current tariff-trade war is just the opening salvo in an epic struggle between the US and China.  The technology war dimension between the two has already begun, albeit still in early stages. What appears on the surface as a trade war is to a significant extent the cover for a more fundamental technology war beneath the surface, and a broader economic war over technology that will fundamentally characterize US-China relations in the 2020s.

Just as European and American imperialists jockeyed and maneuvered in the years leading up to 1914, with a focus on markets and natural resource control, in the 21st century the jockeying and maneuvering has begun—albeit with a different focus on nextgen technologies and control over global money flows, currencies, and other levers of financial power.

The 2020s decade will prove a highly dangerous period. The global capitalist economy is slowing, as it does periodically.  A new restructuring of the US and global capitalist economy is on the agenda next decade, as it was in the late 1970s, in the mid-1940s, and on the eve of 1914. 

Trump trade and other policies should be understood as a broad reordering of US economic and political policies in order to ensure the continuation of US global economic and political-military hegemony for the coming decade.  Nextgen technology development is at the core of that restructuring and restoration of US hegemony. Trump is just the appearance and the human agent and vehicle of the deeper transformations in progress.

About the Author

Dr. Jack Rasmus is author of the forthcoming book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy from Reagan to Trump, Clarity Press, September 2019; and the recently published ‘Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of the Fed’, Lexington books, March 2019. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and his website is www.kyklosproductions.com. Dr. Rasmus tweets at @drjackrasmus and hosts the Alternative Visions radio show on the Progressive Radio Network.

Countries Where Cryptocurrency Adoption is Highest

Cryptocurrency has seen its fair share of growth in recent years—growth in price, growth in terms of the sheer number of cryptocurrencies popping up, and most importantly, growth in world adoption. Countries all over the world are starting to recognize that cryptocurrency is a legitimate financial tool and way to make money and despite some people being late to the party, their attendance is duly noted.

According to a report done by Statista, the number of Blockchain wallets has increased to 35 million (as of Q1 of 2019). This study only refers to Bitcoin wallets—it doesn’t even count the other cryptocurrency wallets that are being used.

 

Cryptocurrency users from unlikely places

When the idea of “cryptocurrency adoption” is thrown around, one immediately thinks about tech-forward countries like South Korea, Japan or even the United States. Believe it or not, none of these choices are in the top 5 countries in which cryptocurrency adoption is most common. There was a study done by Statista in which around 1,000 respondents per country were surveyed to see how many of them have used or owned cryptocurrencies in their lifetime. According to that study, these are the top 5 countries that lead the way in cryptocurrency adoption:

 

1. Turkey

At first glance, Turkey taking the number one is a bit surprising. When you delve into the possible reasons, it isn’t that surprising that Turkey takes 20% of cryptocurrency adoption around the world.

In countries like Turkey—where the government and bank trust are low, where its fiat currency is subject to inflation, and its rulers not having a not-so-good relationship with the United States—cryptocurrencies are seen as an escape route. With their ruler being a dictator who sends his opponents to jail and censors content, it isn’t surprising at all that cryptocurrency adoption is high.

 

2. Brazil

Just like Turkey, there is a battle with the banks and a corrupt government in Brazil. Although its economy isn’t totally falling apart, it did suffer its highest inflation rate in four years (in April). At the same time, Brazil recorded trades worth 100,000 bitcoins within 24 hours (a record that is worth about $500 million USD).

Brazil accounts for 18% of the world’s cryptocurrency adoption.

 

3. Colombia

Tied in 2nd place with 18% of the world’s cryptocurrency adoption is Columbia. The country is home to over a million Venezuelan refugees. It also has a bitcoin-friendly government. Just like Brazil, most of the people of Columbia are using bitcoin as a means of wealth preservation—a way for them to shield their wealth from the extreme inflation that the country is experiencing. But that’s not all of them—people are also using it to run businesses as well as means of investment.

 

4. Argentina

Argentina, also, is no stranger to its citizens using cryptocurrency as a means to preserve their wealth. This, in turn, has made cryptocurrency very popular across the country—making it a regular at the top when it comes to Bitcoin Google searches. Some public means of transportation even allow payment in cryptocurrency.

Argentina currently sits in third place with 16% of the world’s cryptocurrency adoption.

It’s more than just an investment tool. It has multiple real-life uses that can help the everyday lives of people around the world.


5. South Africa

Tied in third place with 16% as well is South Africa. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise since cryptocurrency work in Africa has been recognized many times before. The crypto scene there has continued to grow immensely over the years and despite regulatory clampdowns, the interest in cryptocurrency has not dwindled over time—in fact, it has continued to grow stronger. Not only do they use cryptocurrency as a means of wealth preservation, but they also use it as an investment tool as well as an easier way of sending payments abroad. One of the biggest real-use cases for cryptocurrency in Africa is sending out remittances. In that case, the use of cryptocurrencies makes it cheaper and more efficient.

 

Final thoughts

It can be seen among the top 5 countries that crypto is mostly used—for the lack of a better term—as an “escape” from corrupt governments and hyperinflating fiat currencies. Seeing it happen in the top 5 crypto-adopting countries in the world shows the true power of cryptocurrency. It’s more than just an investment tool. It has multiple real-life uses that can help the everyday lives of people around the world. Check out how to create a bitcoin account. 

If the world knew what kind of real-life uses cryptocurrencies had, it could increase the possibility of mass adoption and as cryptocurrency enthusiasts, this is something we all want.

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Germany vs. Iran – Has Germany Sold Out to the Devil?

By Peter Koenig

Madame Angela Merkel – the head of Europe’s strongest economy, of the leader of the European Union, said that there was strong evidence that Iran attacked the two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Ten days ago, German Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, travelled to Tehran, officially to “save” the Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA), but in reality, to ‘negotiate’ with Tehran ways so Germany and by association other EU members, might still do business with Iran, against some “concessions” by Iran, in order to appease Washington.

“We call on countries not party to the JCPoA to refrain from taking any actions that impede the remaining parties’ ability to fully perform their commitments;”

Iran’s President Rouhani reacted quickly. FM Maas got the cold shoulder and was dismissed. And rightly so. Maas was not really representing Germany – but the United States. Iran gave the EU an “ultimatum” of 60 days to stick to their commitments on trading with Iran according to the Nuclear Deal – despite the US reneging on it – or else, Iran may bypass some of the conditions under the JCPOA accord. The EU – not being independent and her member countries having lost all sovereignty by submitting to the dictate first from Brussels, second from the tyranny of Washington, didn’t like the ultimatum, and said so in a joint statement. They added a weak and meek phrase, “We call on countries not party to the JCPoA to refrain from taking any actions that impede the remaining parties’ ability to fully perform their commitments;” not even daring calling the country by name, for whom the statement was destined, i.e. the US of A.

Germany’s position is as absurd as it has ever been since Merkel and the entire Bundestag accepted the sanctions imposed by Washington on Russia in 2014 – and replicated them along with the rest of the EU – even to their own detriment and to the detriment of the entire EU. Chancellor Merkel and apparently the entire Bundestag, again, go along with Washington’s equally absurd and false accusation that Iran has attacked the two tankers, one Japanese owned, the other Norwegian. The latter belonging to a close friend of Iran’s, and the Japanese one, hardest hit – exactly at the time when Japan’s PM Shinzō Abe, was visiting the Ayatollah in Tehran to discuss how to maintain the Nuclear Deal – trading – despite the sanctions and threats of Washington, hence, a friendly visit.
—

A blind person can see that these were two false flags – so thinly masked, with badly fabricated US ‘video evidence’ that even according to CIA and US military brass did not deliver conclusive evidence. In fact, none at all. Madame Merkel – why do you not first ask the obvious question “Cui bono?”— Who benefits? Certainly not Iran – but the aggressor, the US which has been planning and preparing for war with Iran for decades, ever since the first Iraq war under Father Bush, in 1991. At the 2003 invasion of Iraq – Bolton openly expressed his dreams to demolish Iran. He and Pompeo are liars and war criminals, who run the White House and pretend to run the Pentagon – and who act in impunity. Their power seems limitless. Trump – seems to be a mere puppet.

Getting Merkel on board of the flagrant US lie that Iran was attacking two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, is a strategic hit, enhancing the lies’ credibility and, thus, making a US attack on Iran more palatable to the rest of the world. Yet, apparently this was not enough. The Pentagon sent an unmanned high-altitude Global Hawk drone into Iranian airspace, a provocation Iran could not resist and shot the drone down, but not before sending warning signals, about which today nobody talks. The world shouldn’t know that Iran had the noblesse to warn the US about the drone being in their airspace. As can be expected the White House gnomes deny that the drone was invading Iranian airspace, but pretend it was in international air space, when it was shot down.

This raised the ante for Washington to launch an attack on Iran. All was planned to be carried from Thursday to Friday (20 to 21 June), and at last minute Trump stopped it. Is it true? – It could be, because somebody a bit ‘higher up’ than Trump and his warrior minions, must have realized the danger that such an attack may pose to the rest of the world – or actually that it could trigger a nuclear conflict. However, that the attack plan was stopped doesn’t mean it was canceled. Maybe it was just postponed.

In the meantime, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered all US airlines to avoid the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Hormuz. And, as could be expected, the airlines of Washington’s “true” puppet allies have followed suit, i.e. Australia’s Qantas Airways Ltd, Singapore Airlines Ltd, Germany’s Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France and its Dutch KLM affiliate, as well as Malaysia Airlines, said they were re-routing flights to avoid the area. Others may follow under direct or tacit pressure of the US. The Japanese airline ANA said they were considering alternative routings. Effectively, the US was able to declare a no-fly zone over a significant area of Iran.

Let’s make no mistake, all the visible key figures at the helm of the White House – are run in the back by Israel, by Netanyahu and the Chosen People he represents, those who also run Wall Street and the western world’s banking and financial system. Israel would like to see Iran in rubbles, or better, in eternal chaos, the goal that was set for Iraq, Afghanistan and that the US was and still is dreaming for Syria. This bunch of evil elite pulls the strings and hopes to soon pull just ONE string for global hegemony, under a ONE World Order.

——

Why? – Well, this is the deal: There are many ways to “buy” top politicians, with threats or with money or by outright inflicting fear through ‘proxy-assassinations’.

Back to Germany. Instead of jumping off the sinking ship of Washington and its faithful entourage of the willing, as rats would do, and as the vast majority of the German people would prefer, let alone German and European business, Madame Merkel and apparently all her circles, including Berlin’s Parliament, follow the US flagrant lie propaganda. Why? – Well, this is the deal: There are many ways to “buy” top politicians, with threats or with money or by outright inflicting fear through ‘proxy-assassinations’.

Once Germany is on board – the rest of Europe will follow suit. In that case, Washington – Trump and consortia – think they have Iran totally strangled, by blocking all trade and all financial transactions, plus confiscating Iranian assets abroad – on top of imposing stiff tariffs, so that Iran can no longer afford importing vital goods for manufacturing – or for sheer survival from the west. Once a country is weak, it can be taken over easily. So, the western, AngloZionist thinking goes.

Iran – her Fifth-Columnists aside – is strong and has already proven that it is detaching from the west. Even trying to adhere and fight for the Nuclear Deal which the west, i.e. Europe is incapable of respecting for lack of backbone, is a waste of time. To demonstrate that Iran has alternatives, Mr. Rouhani was attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on 13 and 14 June 2019, by invitation of China, the leader of the 8-member “club”.

SCO stands for promoting peace, trade and a non-aggressive defense strategy (the antidote to the NATO-type military aggression). As of now, Mr. Rouhani is an observer for his country, Iran which is in an advanced stage in the process of entering the SCO as a full member. This could happen later this year or in 2020. Iran would recover her sovereignty, her economic potential and would – and will – be able to detach from the west, pretty much as did Russia and China, the two super-powers under constant assaults of sanctions, denigration and false accusations.

Turkey – is in a similar situation. If Turkey is admitted by the SCO – also very likely – their NATO exit will be imminent. What that will mean for the rest of NATO, at this point we can only guess and dream of, especially since there is an ever-stronger people’s movement throughout Europe to exit NATO. It is particularly strong in Italy and paradoxically also in Germany. The vast majority of Germans want to exit NATO, but the government doesn’t listen. “So far” doesn’t listen. The German anti-NATO movement has been gaining strength ever since the anti-nuclear energy protests in the early seventies which were followed and intensified in the late 1970’s early 1980s against nuclear arms stockpiled in Germany by the US, particularly those stored at the US Air Force base of Ramstein, near Kaiserslautern.

The “so-far” is a precursor to a break with NATO, as the pressure against the USAF base Ramstein, against NATO, is mounting, and that, when Madame Merkel decides firmly to go with the sinking ship – risking to pull Germany and her people down the drain for sheer senseless and outdated obedience to the succumbing tyrant. How absurd!

While Iran is making smart moves, gradually away from western economics, from trading with the west – and moving eastwards – where the future is – Germany backtracks, literally into the orbit of a dying beast, into what is ever-more detectible – a decaying empire.

When will Germany wake up? When the first bombs fall on her cities – a WWI and WWII redux? Except this time, it may not be just the falling of conventional bombs.

When will Germany wake up? When the first bombs fall on her cities – a WWI and WWII redux? Except this time, it may not be just the falling of conventional bombs. It may be nuclear meeting nuclear at Ramstein. Madame Merkel, your obligation to the people who apparently elected you is larger than you think and larger than yourself – and much larger than whatever goes on in your mind to follow a defeated warrior and rogue nation into hell.

Featured image: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas met with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and President Hassan Rouhani. © https://www.dw.com

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About the Author

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; TeleSUR; The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

First published by the New Eastern Outlook – NEO

Why Workstyle Reform Just Might Work in Japan

By Ginka Toegel

Ikigai– in Japanese it means, loosely, “what makes life worth living.”  If reforms by the Shinzō Abe government succeed, it may one day represent a new ethos towards work-life balance. Is this possible for a population more known for a work ethic that sometimes leads to extremes including karōshi (death by overwork)? There are reasons to believe.

 

Workstyle reforms integral to Abenomics

Throughout the “economic miracle” years, 1960s-1990s, loyalty to Japan became equated with loyalty to employers, hard work and sacrifice – measured primarily by long working hours. But by the 2000s, these behaviours were hindering the country’s economic strength, harming families and individuals – and yes, even killing. With the shrinking population putting a further drain on productivity, change became essential for renewed growth.

Prime Minister Abe’s economic reforms – “Abenomics” – include promoting work-life balance to improve productivity. The economy has been steadily rebuilding since 2012 and forecasts for 2018 are strong.1 Alongside the economic push, public outcry over karōshi provided an emotional catalyst, particularly in the wake of one young woman’s suicide at the end of 2015 – the misery of her overtime hours tracked through desperate tweets.2

The main tenets of Abe’s workstyle reforms include cutting down on overtime hours and instituting equal pay for equal work.  They aim to increase work flexibility, such as with teleworking and helping improve mobility. Other key features include tapping into the female workforce, and improving sick leave, family leave and vacations (close to 50% of paid vacations are reportedly not taken).

The reform package was recently met with a major setback as public confidence has been weakened by questions of survey data methodologies. In response to these concerns, Abe has removed all measures related to the discretionary labour system, but he vows to ensure that the rest of the package will “absolutely pass” during the on-going session of Parliament.3

Old habits die hard

Unilever Japan introduced WAA – work anywhere, anytime. They make a point of ensuring that the Board, C-suite and managers lead by example – important when many won’t leave before their bosses.

A survey by the Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training4 found that 60% of respondents see work-life balance as the ideal. But when asked about what their lives were really like, only 38% prioritised work-life balance. For now, it seems to pay off: the survey found that not taking holidays led to faster promotion.
Many will tell you that the long hours, skipped vacations and prioritising work over private life is the “Japanese way.”5 People say their workload prevents them from taking time off and worry it would “inconvenience” coworkers. Women say they’re afraid of being negatively judged if they take parental leave6– and men almost never do take it. In the real world, even if people would like it, the ideal situation of work-life balance is a hard sell.

 

A few well-placed friends of reform

Some changes happening in larger corporations are encouraging. Trading conglomerate Itochu Corporation’s HR policy aims to boost individuals’ capabilities for overall efficiency. Internal reforms also include increasing time with customers while reducing time spent in internal meetings by 50% between 2010 and 2016.7 Other high-profile companies heralded for supportive internal policies include IT developer SCSK Corp. and Toyota – the latter is named on Flexjobs’ 2018 list of top 100 companies worldwide.8

Multinationals implanted in Japan can also help change mindsets. Unilever Japan introduced WAA – work anywhere, anytime. They make a point of ensuring that the Board, C-suite and managers lead by example – important when many won’t leave before their bosses. Even more interesting, within a month of implementing the programme, 140 external companies attended sessions at Unilever to learn how WAA works.9

Approximately 14 million people or 30% of the fully-employed workforce (excluding primary industries), are employed by large companies or multinationals in Japan. Friends like these can help the Abe government turn the tide. Even when initial sentiments are sceptical or cynical, if enough of your friends and family work for companies with such policies, you might begin to see the point.

 

Extending this to smaller companies

Small and medium-sized companies face more challenges to picking up workstyle reform. With tighter margins, can they afford any short-term loss of productivity during transition? Prominent corporations can write about their initiatives in glossy annual reports, reaping kudos and gaining in reputation. SMEs haven’t got the incentive of this positive PR.

SMEs may be able to reach their goals faster by implementing reforms creatively. Saint-Works Corp., a shared service company within a mid-sized elder-care company, Saint-Care Holdings Group, has cut overtime hours in half by having employees wear purple capes marked with the time to leave work.10 Not only are employees adhering to the policy, they appreciate it. As one said, it’s not when you extend a meeting two or three hours that the great ideas come up.

 

Productivity and real economic value

If people integrate the idea that work-life balance improves productivity, evolution could happen en masse, through a new definition of the right way to show allegiance.

The Abe reforms are backed by penalties for excessive hours and improved surveillance of unpaid overtime. There are carrots as well as sticks. For example, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Tokyo Stock Exchange jointly honour “Health & Productivity Stocks” – Itochu and SCSK are among them.11
But to ensure workstyle reforms are more than tokens, you must appeal to the business case. Research shows there is an inverse correlation between productivity and working hours.12 Flexible work strategies improve attraction, retention and loyalty, and have a demonstrable impact on cost-savings and ROI.13

Itochu Corp. was the top general trading company in FY2015 in terms of Net Profits – against far larger competitors. They attribute their success to HR policies of maintaining a “small cadre of highly-capable people” and integrating workstyle efficiencies. Saint-Care too has seen profits rise.14

 

Harnessing a culture of commitment

In the West, we have long recognised the value of work-life balance. This doesn’t mean we always do it. We typically leave the question of finding work-life balance up to individuals and families. It’s something that gets negotiated over the dinner table between tired working couples more often than at boardroom tables. The classic exception is the Scandinavian countries, where work-life balance is a way of life, broadly viewed as better for society.

Although Japan came late to the concept, change is happening rapidly. If it hits a tipping point in attitudes, the country could actually move into a leadership position. Change could rest on the same traits that led people to overwork in the first place: the desire to be well-regarded and contribute to the whole. If people integrate the idea that work-life balance improves productivity, evolution could happen en masse, through a new definition of the right way to show allegiance. The “Japanese way” would no longer be logging endless hours. Instead, balanced workstyle could become the norm, not unlike the Scandinavian countries.

The other characteristic that can be harnessed for positive workstyle change goes back to ikigai. In parallel to the drive towards overwork, the value of having true purpose has always existed in Japan. Ikigai is part of what gives Japan one of the longest life expectancies in the world – including making Okinawa a “blue zone”, one of six pockets in the world with an unusually high number of centenarians. This is not to suggest work itself should become the meaning of ikigai. Rather, more balanced workplace practices could bring more ikigai to the office, people could find more meaning in their work, contributing to the betterment of all.

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About the Author
Ginka Toegel is Professor of Organisational Behaviour and Leadership at IMD Business School. She specialised in providing one-to-one leadership coaching and team-building workshops to top management teams in both the public and the private sector. Her major research focuses on leadership development, team dynamics, and coaching.

 

References

1. https://www.nippon.com/en/currents/d00375/

2. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2057914/japan-embarks-work-hour-reform-after-suicide-woman-who-did-105

3. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Japan-drops-key-labor-reform-proposal-after-survey-furor

4. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/08/25/national/favor-work-life-balance-inclined-use-paid-holidays-survey-shows/#.WoldHzBG3IV

5. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/01/30/commentary/work-life-balance-japan-leans-one-direction/#.WogOlDBG0dU

6. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/06/29/national/social-issues/women-japan-cite-judged-work-top-concern-taking-maternity-leave-survey-shows/#.WogA8DBG0dU

7. https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/files/ar2017E.pdf

8. https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/100-top-companies-with-remote-jobs-in-2018/

9. https://bccjacumen.com/you-gotta-have-waa/

10. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2057914/japan-embarks-work-hour-reform-after-suicide-woman-who-did-105

11. http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2017/0221_003.html

12. http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/2017/0721wp-keizai/2syo2017.pdf

13. https://www.shrm.org/hr-today/trends-and-forecasting/special-reports-and-expert-views/Documents/Leveraging-Workplace-Flexibility.pdf

14. https://www.saint-care.com/en/highlight/

 

Why Investing Young Is A Good Investment

You may be a young adult enjoying your freedom, and investing is the last thing on your mind. You may have heard about it or know nothing about it at all, but the thing is, you should start investing as young as possible. Don’t think it’s too early to save for your retirement or future financial needs, as investing at a young age does have its benefits.

Here are reasons to invest at a young age:

 

Preparation For Your Retirement

Retiring is costly. You may think your savings are enough to cover your expenses when you retire, but nothing can be farther from the truth. Especially if you’re living a lavish lifestyle now, then your retirement fund should be as much or greater than your expenses now.

Living a comfortable retirement life is not that easy. Here are some reasons why you must invest for your retirement:

 

• Long-Term Care – You may be capable and kicking right now, but as you age, you may need assistance. Failure to consider this may bankrupt your retirement funds. For instance, if you need long-term care, for which you have no budget, then it may cost you a lot since expenses tend to increase along with time. You can use your investment as a backup or apply for loans, like CashnGo small loans.

• Healthcare Costs – You may not have any sickness, but illnesses may affect you, too. As you age, your health may diminish, requiring you to take medicine or maintenance. Without other investments, your retirement fund may not be enough to cover such expenses. But your investment can help you avail of maintenance, medicines, or regular checkups without worrying about where to get the money for such expenses.

• Life Expectancy – No one can accurately predict their life expectancy so it’s best to be financially prepared, especially when you’re already in your retirement age. When you have an investment, you can still live a comfortable retirement life even when it exceeds your life expectancy.

Take advantage of free courses that teach you how to invest for your retirement. There are great ways young Australians can invest, and you can find numerous informational articles on the Web so you can start investing for your retirement.

 

Grow Your Money

When you’re already receiving your paycheck, one way to grow your money is to invest it. It may not grow as fast compared to other get-rich-quick schemes, but it’s one of the legit ways to safely increase your hard-earned money. As they say, you can’t become wealthy if you simply rely on your paycheck.

But when you’re starting with investments, you must not put all your money in one single investment. You can invest in REITs or real estate investments, bonds, IPOs or Initial Public Offerings, stocks, and the like. For instance, Africa’s real estate is attracting more investors because they see it as a booming market. Bonds can also increase your money annually, or IPOs can increase your money at a short period depending on the company’s performance. Some stocks provide dividends, but its value can go up or down depending on its performance in the market.

 

Become Ahead On Personal Finances

When you grow your money through investments, you’re becoming ahead of people your age on the financial aspect. In the long run, you can use your investments to purchase things that others probably can’t at your age.

For instance, you may be tight on your budget now, but as you invest more rather than spend, you’ll earn money to buy your real estate property, business ventures, or automobiles without a loan. People at your age may have these things, but your advantage is that you can afford it with cash, and you likely won’t incur debt from these purchases.

 

 

Improves Financial Management Skills

Receiving your paycheck may mean more gadgets to buy, more trips to book, or more beers to drink, especially when you’re still young. As a young individual, you may have the tendency not to worry about the future as long as you have money to spend on things that will satisfy your wants at the moment. But when you invest, you’ll learn that there is more importance to money.

Having to set aside a percentage of your pay on your investment may seem hard at first, but it will help you manage your finances. So instead of spending your money on trivial things, you’ll know what to prioritize since investing means living below your paycheck.

 

Conclusion

Whatever your reasons are for investing, starting early can give you more profit. As a young investor, you must learn about the investment vehicle you’ll be venturing into. It’s best to learn it from trusted and known financial advisors, so you will avoid being scammed. As long as you invest the right way, you’ll surely grow your money, secure your retirement, and be ahead early on in the financial game.

 

B2B Marketing and Lead Generation Tips For Finance Companies

Business-to-business (B2B) marketing and lead generation stand as among the most effective digital marketing trends in the business industry today. If you are a finance company, this doesn’t exempt you from having to push for these techniques. Because the competition has become even stiffer than ever, it is vital for you to reach potential customers and clients in the most effective way possible. With the population on the Internet increasing by the day, you have a wide customer reach to your advantage.

B2B Marketing and lead generation refer to the process of generating leads or looking for and reaching out to potential customers for your business. That said, if you are eager to learn more about these techniques, here are the best tips for you to apply as a finance company:

Create A High-Quality Website

If you want to attract a bigger audience into your website, it is imperative that you focus on creating one that is of high quality. Do not create a website haphazardly, without putting thought into what you are making. Remember that instead of a physical store, your website is the first thing that your potential customers will see and notice. Especially if they are new clients in your finance company, they will need to immediately find what it is they are looking for in your website, such as:

  • Investing in certificates of deposits
  • Learning about the latest finance offers
  • Checking the various rates available in your finance company
  • Opening a credit line
  • Opening a savings or checking account
  • Going for online banking or finance transactions

When you are competing against numerous other finance companies, it is important that you thrive and stay above the competition by offering solutions to some of the most common problems clients have. Keep in mind that there are still paradoxes in digitalisation, so it’s best that you are clear on where your website stands.

Create Amazing Content

If you think that content marketing isn’t part of B2B marketing, you are wrong. In fact, as a finance company, publishing amazing and relevant content on your website is still one of the foolproof ways for you to reach out to your leads and clients. Remember the fundamental point:

you need to show leads that you are offering services that form part and parcel of the solutions to their most basic and common financial concerns.

Apart from just posting articles about why they need the financial services that you are offering, besides other written content, you also have to post content in other media to stay above the competition. For you to effectively achieve this, remember the following strategies:

  • Engage your current audience by asking what it is that other clients might be looking for through forms and polls on your website and social media sites
  • Do your thorough research
  • Keep your terms simple and easy to understand, as finance can be entirely too technical
  • Embed keywords into your content, as they are still important and relevant
  • As a bonus, here’s an excellent B2B content marketing strategy for you to study and review, and eventually apply on your website.

Create Social Media Pages

Just because you are a finance company doesn’t mean that you can’t use social media to your advantage. On the World Wide Web, the highest population of Internet users can be found on social media pages. In fact, often, one Internet user can have at least two social media accounts. Hence, you should take advantage of this presence. Be on the most common and popular social media pages, such as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. If you can, enter the world of video marketing on YouTube as well.

When your presence is marked on social media, you are reaching out to these potential leads who are active on these platforms. Plus, it allows you to refine your lead generation process for a more specific target market. For example:

  • On Facebook, you can reach out to all forms of potential clients, from young millennials who have just started working and need help with their finances, to retiring couples who are looking towards the best financial solutions for their retirement.
  • On Instagram, you have to refine your strategy more to the market of young teenagers and young professionals, and even businesses on Instagram that may need your service.

Social media marketing as a facet of B2B marketing and lead generation isn’t as difficult as it seems, because you only have to be brief with your approach. You can use the idle time that you spend on social media instead for more productive purposes, such as focusing on generating leads.

Go For Pay-Per-Click Advertising

Pay-Per-Click (PPC) advertising is one of the most effective techniques on the Internet for businesses to promote their brand. As a finance company, it is essential for you to remember that you are still a business after all. PPC advertising is aptly named as such because you are paid per click on your ads.

This defines the process of PPC: first, you create ads on the Internet that are shown by search engines during that quick but crucial period after a user does a search, and before organic search results come up. When an Internet user, potentially a lead, clicks on these ads, they are taken to a landing page, which is your website. In exchange for this, you pay search engines a very minimal click for every successful click or land to your site. With an effective PPC ad strategy in place, you can effectively reach customers before anyone else does.

Conclusion

With all these, it is essential to close by keeping in mind that an excellent lead generation strategy is always the backbone of B2B marketing. When you do this, remember that you aren’t just reaching out to random people or random clients. You are trying to grab the attention of these clients that you identify as leads, and who are going to be paying customers in your business. Hence, you are providing solutions to these leads to their common problems, such that they begin to realize that your service is what they are looking for.

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