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Europe on the Brink of Collapse?

flags of the USA and the European Union painted on a cracked wall symbolizing the difficult diplomatic relations between the European Union and the USA

By Peter Koenig

The Empire’s European castle of vassals is crumbling. Right in front of our eyes. But Nobody seems to see it. The European Union (EU), the conglomerate of vassals – Trump calls them irrelevant, and he doesn’t care what they think about him, they deserve to be collapsing. They, the ‘vassalic’ EU, a group of 28 countries, some 500 million people, with a combined economy of a projected 19 trillion US-dollar equivalent, about the same as the US, have submitted themselves to the dictate of Washington in just about every important aspect of life.

The EU has accepted on orders by Washington to sanction Russia, Venezuela, Iran – and a myriad of countries that have never done any harm to any of the 28 EU member states. The EU has accepted the humiliation of military impositions by NATO – threating Russia and China with ever more and ever more advancing military basis towards Moscow and Beijing, to the point that Brussels’ foreign policy is basically led by NATO.

It was clear from the very get-go that the US sanctions regime imposed on Russia and all the countries refusing to submit to the whims and rules of Washington, directly and via the EU, was hurting the EU economically far more than Russia. This is specifically true for some of the southern European countries, whose economy depended more on trading with Russia and Eurasia than it did for other EU countries.

The ‘sanctions’ disaster really hit the fan, when Trump unilaterally decided to abrogate the “Nuclear Deal” with Iran and reimpose heavy sanctions on Iran and on “everybody who would do business with Iran”. European hydrocarbon giants started losing business. That’s when Brussels, led by Germany started mumbling that they would not follow the US and – even – that they would back European corporations, mainly hydrocarbon giants, sticking to their contractual arrangements they had with Iran.

 

Too late. European business had lost all confidence in Brussels EU Administration’s feeble and generally untrustworthy words. Many breached their longstanding and, after the Nuclear Deal, renewed contracts with Iran, out of fear of punishment by Washington and lack of trust in Brussel’s protection. Case in point is the French-British petrol giant, Total, which shifted its supply source from Iran to Russia – no, not to the US, as was of course, Washington’s intent. The damage is done. The vassals are committing slow suicide.

The people have had it. More than half of the European population wants to get out of the fangs from Brussels. But nobody asks them, nor listens to them – and that in the so-called heartland of ‘democracy’ (sic). That’s why people are now up in arms and protesting everywhere – in one way or another in Germany, France, the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Poland – the list is almost endless. And it can be called generically the ‘Yellow Vests”, after the new French revolution.

Washington wants Europe to buy US shale gas and oil, and especially keeping Europe economically and financially in the US orbit, avoiding in any way a detachment from Washington and preventing the obvious and logical – an alliance with Russia.

The latest in a series of the US attacking Germany and German business – and German integrity, for that matter – are the US Ambassador’s, Richard Grenell, recent threats to German corporations with sanctions if they work on Nord Stream 2, the 1,200 km pipeline bringing Russian gas to Europe, to be completed by the end of 2019. It will virtually double the capacity of Russian gas supply to Europe. Instead, Washington wants Europe to buy US shale gas and oil, and especially keeping Europe economically and financially in the US orbit, avoiding in any way a detachment from Washington and preventing the obvious and logical – an alliance with Russia. This attempt will fail bitterly, as various German Ministers, including Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, have loudly and with determination protested against such US hegemonic advances. Well, friends, you have bent over backwards to please your Washington Masters for too long. It’s high time to step out of this lock-step of obedience.

In France, this past weekend of 12 / 13 January, the Yellow Vests went into round 9 of protests against dictator Macron, his austerity program and – not least – his abject arrogance vis-à- vis the working class. A recent public statement of Macron’s is testimony of this below-the-belt arrogance: «Trop de français n’ont pas le sens de l’effort, ce qui explique en partie les ’troubles’ que connait le pays» – Translated: “Too many French don’t know the meaning of ‘effort’ which explains at least partially the trouble this country is in.”

The Yellow Vests and a majority of the French population want nothing less than Macron’s resignation. Protesters are consistently and largely under-reported by Christophe Castaner, the French Interior Minister. This past weekend the official figure was 50,000 demonstrators, countrywide, when in reality the figure was at least three times higher. The official French version would like the public at large, inside and outside of France, to believe that the Yellow Vest’s movement is diminishing. It is not. To the contrary, they are demonstrating all over France, and that despite the Macron regime’s increasing violent repression.

RT reports, on Macron’s orders the police are becoming more violent, using military suppression to control protesting French civilians. Thousands have been arrested, and hundreds injured by police brutality. Nevertheless, the movement is gaining massive public support and the ‘Yellow Vests” idea is spreading throughout Europe. This spread is, of course, hardly reported by the mainstream media.

In fact, 80% of the French back the Yellow Vests and their idea of a Citizen Initiated Referendum (RIC for “Référendum d’initiative citoyenne”), under which citizens could propose their own laws that would then be voted on by the general public. The RIC could effectively bypass the French Parliament, and would be enshrined in the French Constitution. A similar law exists since 1848 in Switzerland and is regularly applied by Swiss citizens. It is a way of Direct Democracy that any country calling itself a “democracy” should incorporate in its Constitution.

The UK is in shambles. Thousands are taking to the streets of London, organized by the People’s Assembly Against Austerity”, calling for general elections to replace the failing Tory Government. They are joined by the French Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests), out of solidarity. Many of the UK protesters are also wearing high-visibility yellow vests.

Propaganda and counter-propaganda is destined to further confuse the people and confused people usually want to stick to the ‘status quo’.

This is in direct correlation with the ever-growing louder debacle over BREXIT – yes, or no and how. At this point nobody knows what Britain’s future is going to be. Propaganda and counter-propaganda is destined to further confuse the people and confused people usually want to stick to the ‘status quo’. There is even a movement of pro “remain” propaganda, organized by some members of the European Parliament. Imagine! – Talking about sovereignty, if Brussels cannot even leave the Brits alone decide whether they want to continue under their dictate or not.

Hélas, the Brits are largely divided, but also past the stage of being swayed by foreign propaganda, especially in this delicate question of leaving the EU – which a majority of Brits clearly decided in June 2016. Prime Minister, Theresa May, has screwed-up the BREXIT process royally, to the point where many Brits feel that what she negotiated is worse than “no deal”. This has likely happened in close connivance with the unelected EU ‘leadership’ which does not want the UK to leave and under strict orders from Washington which needs the UK in its crucial role as a US mole in the European Union.

On 15 January 2019, the UK Parliament will vote on whether they accept the negotiated BREXIT conditions, or whether they prefer a ‘no deal’ BREXIT, or will request an extension for further negotiations under Article 50 of the “Treaty of Lisbon” (which was imposed by the heads of state of the 28 members, without any public vote, and is a false stand-in for a EU Constitution). Other options include a general election – and let the new leadership decide; or a second referendum which after two years is legally possible. The latter would likely cause severe public unrest, followed by atrocious police oppression – as already often witnessed in the UK – in which case, let’s just hope civil war can be avoided.

For weeks, the Yellow Vest movement has spread to Belgium and The Netherlands. For similar reasons – public discontent over austerity, EU dictatorship over Belgian and Dutch sovereignty. Last Friday, one of the Belgian Yellow Vests was overrun by a truck and killed. Authorities reported it as an accident.

Reality is completely different, as about two thirds of the Greek population are still hovering around or below the survival level.

Greece – The MS-media report all is ‘donkey-dory’, Greece is recovering, has for the first time in many years a positive growth rate and is able to refinance herself on the open capital market. Greece is no longer dependent on the irate and infamous troika (European Central Bank – ECB, European Commission and IMF). Reality is completely different, as about two thirds of the Greek population are still hovering around or below the survival level – no access to public health care, affordable medication, public schools – umpteen times reduced pensions, most public assets and services privatized for a pittance. Nothing has fundamentally changed in the last years, at least not for the better and for the majority of the people. The troika has allowed the Greek to go to the private capital markets – to boost falsely their, the Greek’s, image among the international public at large, basically telling the brainwashed populace, “It worked, we, the troika, did a good job”.

Nothing worked. People are unhappy; more than unhappy, they are indignant. They demonstrated against Angela Merkel’s recent visit to Athens, and their protests were violently oppressed by police forces. What do you expect – this is what has become of Europe, a highly repressive state of spineless vassals.

On Wednesday, 16 January, the Greek Parliament may hold a Vote of Confidence against or for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The official and make-believe reason is supposedly the controversy over the name of Macedonia, which in fact has long been settled. The real reason is the public’s discontent about the continuous and increasing blood-letting by never-ending austerity, sucking the last pennies from the poor. According to Lancet, the renowned British health journal, the Greek suicide rate is soaring. Nobody talks about it. – Will Tsipras survive a possible Vote of Confidence? -If not – early elections? – Who will follow Tsipras? – Don’t be fooled by the term ‘democracy’. – The elite from within and without Greece will not allow any policy changes. That’s when people à la Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) may come in. Civil unrest. Enough is enough.

Macron, France’s Rothschild implant, has special privileges, as far as budget overrun margins are concerned.

In Italy the coalition of the 5-Star Movement and the small right-wing brother, Lega Norte, is pulled to the far right by Lega’s Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister. Mr. Salvini is clearly calling the shots – and his alliance is firing strongly against Brussels and with good reason, as Brussels is attempting to impose rules on Italy’s budget, while the same rules do not apply equally to all EU member states. For example, Macron, France’s Rothschild implant, has special privileges, as far as budget overrun margins are concerned. Mr. Salvini’s anti-Brussels, anti-EU stance is no secret, and he has a lot of Italians behind him. An Italian Yellow Vest movement cannot be excluded.

The empire’s vassal castle is crumbling – and not even silently.

Then there are the former Soviet satellites, Hungary and Poland, turned right wing – don’t appreciate Brussels meddling with Hungary’s anti-immigration policy and in Poland over a controversial overhaul of the Judiciary system. Never mind whether you agree or not with individual country actions, both cases are clear interferences in these nations’ sovereignty. Though upon the European Court of Justice’s strong warning, Poland indeed blinked and reinstated the judges fired in the judiciary reform process. Poland’s love for NATO, and Brussels use of the NATO leverage, may have played a role in Poland’s reversal of decision. Nevertheless, discontent in Poland as in Hungary among the public at large remains strong. Migration and the Judiciary are just the visible pretexts. The legendary tip of the iceberg. Reality is on a deeper level, much deeper. These countries are both reminded of what they considered the Soviet Union’s handcuffs. “Freedom” is not being dictated by Brussels.

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The triad of systematic and willful destabilization and destruction of what we know as the Greater Middle East and western world is what we have to be aware of. The east, mostly Russia and China, is a challenge being tackled simultaneously, impressively for the brainwashed westerner, but rather meekly for those who are informed about Russia’s and China’s military might and intelligence capacity.

This drive of destabilization cum destruction comes in three phases. It started with the Middle East which for the most part has become a hopeless hell-hole, a source of indiscriminate killing by the western allies, say, the emperor’s puppets and mercenaries, resulting in millions killed and in an endless flood of refugees destabilizing Europe – which is the second phase of the triad. It’s in full swing. It happens right in front of our eyes – but we don’t see it.

The more chaos the better. People in chaos are easily controlled.

It’s the Yellow Vests, austerity, increasing inequality, unemployment, social sector’s being milked to zilch by the financial system, popular uprisings’ oppression by police and military forces; it’s reflected by the dismal powerlessness of the people – that leads to “enough is enough” in the streets. That’s the way it’s all wanted. The more chaos the better. People in chaos are easily controlled.

Now comes phase three of the triad – Latin America. It has already started three or four years back. Countries that have struggled for decades to eventually break loose with some form of ‘democracy’ from the fangs of empire, are gradually being subdued with fake elections and ‘internal’ parliamentary coups, back into the emperor’s backyard. The Southern Cone – Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay – is ‘gone’, except for Bolivia. Peru, Colombia, Ecuador all the way to Guyana are governed by neoliberal, even neonazi-shaded Lords of Washington. But there is still Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and now also Mexico that have not caved in and will not cave in.

In an extraordinary analysis, Thierry Meyssan describes in “The Terrible Forthcoming Destruction of the Caribbean Basin” – http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/50911.htm, how the Pentagon is still pursuing the implementation of the Rumsfeld-Cebrowski plan. This time, aiming at the destruction of the “Caribbean Basin” States. There is no consideration for friends or political enemies, Thierry Meyssan observes. He goes on predicting that after the period of economic destabilization and that of military preparation, the actual operation should begin in the years to come by an attack on Venezuela by Brazil (supported by Israel), Colombia (an ally of the United States) and Guyana (in other words, the United Kingdom). It will be followed by others, beginning with Cuba and Nicaragua, the ‘troika of tyranny’, as per John Bolton.

Only the future will say to what extent this plan will be implemented. At the outset, its ambitions exceed the crumbling empire’s actual capacity.
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People are sick and tired of being milked no end by a fraudulent pyramid system – constructed by the US and her dollar hegemony and maintained by globalized private banking.

When it comes all down to one single denominator, it’s the current western financial system that must go. It is private banking gone berserk. We are living in a financial system that has gone wild and running havoc, uncontrolled – a train of endless greed that is loosely speeding ahead and doesn’t know when it will hit an unyielding steel-enforced brick wall – but hit it will. It is a mere question of time. People are sick and tired of being milked no end by a fraudulent pyramid system – constructed by the US and her dollar hegemony and maintained by globalized private banking.

We are living in a private banking system that has nothing to do with economic development, but everything with a greed-driven domination of us, consumers, sold on debt and on money that we don’t control, despite the fact that we earned it with our hard labor; despite the fact that it is our added value to what we call the economy. No – this system is totally disrespectful of the individual, it is even ready to steal our money, if it needs to survive – our banking system. It takes the liberty of “administering” it and basically appropriating it. Once our money is in a private bank, we have lost control over it. And mind you and get it into your brains, private banks do not work for you and me, but for their shareholders. But through hundreds of years of indoctrination, we have become so used to it, that being charged interest for borrowing our own money, through an intermediary who does nothing, absolutely nothing but wait for profit to fall into its lap – has become the ‘normality’.

It isn’t. This system has to be abolished, the faster the better. Private banking needs to be eradicated and replaced by local public banking that works with local currencies, based on local economic output, way removed from globalized concepts that help steel resources, empty local social safety nets – all under the guise of austerity for progress. We should know better by now. There is no austerity for progress – has never been. This fraudulent IMF-World Bank concept has never worked, anywhere.

The BND has helped the US State of North Dakota through the 2008 and following years crisis, with economic growth instead of economic decline.

We have to de-dollarize our money, de-digitize our money and pool it through a public banking system for the purpose of people’s growth, hence a society’s or nation’s growth. There is currently one good example, the Bank of North Dakota. The BND has helped the US State of North Dakota through the 2008 and following years crisis, with economic growth instead of economic decline, with almost full employment, versus skyrocketing unemployment in the rest of the US and the western world. We need to build our common wealth with sovereign money, backed by our sovereign economies.

As the empire and its vassals are crumbling badly, they are shaking in their foundations, it is time to rethink what we have been taking for granted and for ‘normal’ – a fraudulent and deceptive monetary system, backed by nothing, no economy, not even gold – we are living on sheer fiat money, made by private banking by a mouse-click – and by letting us be enslaved by debt.

Enough is enough. The Yellow Vests have understood. They want to get rid of their “Macron” who keeps propagating the fraud. It is time to rethink and restart, as the crumbling is getting louder and louder. Empire’s European vassal state is falling apart and will pull Washington and its hegemonic war and money machine along into the abyss.

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About the Author

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; TeleSUR; The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

First published by the New Eastern Outlook – NEO

Never Try to Make a Profit on All Trades

A man counting money, UAE Dirham banknotes, and calculating the total value with a calculator before signing an agreement.

When you are trading, the most common thing you will try to do is get the profit from every trend. This is common because every trader wants to get rich. They want to squeeze the money out of the trend and they want to profit from every movement. This is not the way how you should trade in Forex. This article will tell you why it is not good for you to take the money from the pips that you see on the chart. Though they may look attractive, they are not good for your career.

Leading your dream life based on currency trading profession is very hard. People don’t really understand why they should trade the market with managed risk. They simply execute trades with high-risk exposure and lose a significant portion of their investment.

When you are trading, the most common thing you will try to do is get the profit from every trend.

If you want to survive in the retail trading industry, you must learn to trade the like the Singaporean traders. Forget about short-term gains. Never try to win all the trades by predicting the price of a certain asset with 100% accuracy, as this is nearly impossible.

Becoming a successful trader requires extensive knowledge about the retail trading profession. First of all, try to eliminate the unnecessary variables of the market. Focus on the development of your trading skills instead of making big trades. Open a demo trading account with an elite class broker like Saxo as you can learn lots of new things. Be smart when it comes to retail trading profession. Unless you know the perfect way of trading the currency pairs, never risk a significant portion of their investment.

 

It is called greed and greed takes your money

The first thing that you need to avoid in your career to become successful is greed. If you ever greed in Forex, you will lose your money no matter what you are doing. An example is when the novice traders place their trade and they see they are making a good profit. They become excited but not all the traders close the trade after making the money.

Focus on the development of your trading skills instead of making big trades.

Many people want to see where the trend is going and they keep the trade open. The pip is moving in their favor and they are trying to make money, it results in losing the money when the trend turns against you. Remember, the more you try to get every tiny bit of profit, the harder for you it will be to make a consistent profit. Even if the industry is offering you a small money, you will wait for a big profit and end up losing money. Greed can take you to the end of your career and you should never be greedy in Forex.

 

Every pip of profit is not possible for the traders

Even the professionals do not want to try to squeeze every inch of profit from a trend. We know it sounds fancy but it is very hard for the traders. The trends do not have time when they will change. It is a luck if you have got yourself a good trend and you can make a profit. You do not make your money by winning big trades but with smaller profits consistently. If you aim for every bit of profit form the trend, keep in mind you can lose your investment. You do not know when the pattern will have a new movement and you can lose all your money.

 

The market does not think about you

The industry does not know what you are thinking in your mind.

You do not make your money by winning big trades but with smaller profits consistently.

If you are thinking you will close your trades at the moment when the pip will start falling, you are wrong. It can fall anytime and this fall can take down all your profit. It is better if you close the trades when you can and take the profit you can. Plan for the next trade and make money, this is how you can make bigger profits without squeezing every bit of profit from any single trend in Forex.

 

Japan’s “Comfort Women” Asian Protests and Imperial Japan’s Sexual Slavery

By Dan Steinbock  

Recently, another Philippine statue commemorating Filipino “comfort women” has been removed. As international pressure is rising, it is time for Abe government to acknowledge its wartime history. Most of Japan recognizes it.

In December 2017, a memorial was erected along the Roxas Boulevard facing Manila Bay. It commemorated the Filipino “comfort women”, who were forced to work as sexual slave labor in Japanese military brothels during World War II.

In late April 2018, after Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was “extremely regrettable” such statues were erected, the Department of Public Works removed the statue. As Japan has an important role in infrastructure investment, President Duterte suggested the statue could be placed in a private property.

On December 28, another statue for the former “comfort women” was installed in a Catholic-run shelter for the elderly and the homeless in San Pedro, Laguna. After the Japanese embassy in Manila stated such statues were “extremely disappointing, not compatible with the Japanese government,” the statue was removed two days later.

 

This time the Duterte government noted that the statue was “dedicated to peace and women’s empowerment,” used private funds and was built inside private property. It was freedom of expression. Lila Pilipina, an advocacy group for Filipina comfort women, stressed the Japanese government demands that we “forget its war crime.”

All Holocaust memorials should be taken down, along with other memorials dedicated to historical atrocities because they all are inconvenient reminders about the past.

The removal of the second statue fosters a perception there is a systematic effort by the Shinzo Abe government to eradicate public statues for “comfort women.” By the same logic, all Holocaust memorials should be taken down, along with other memorials dedicated to historical atrocities because they all are inconvenient reminders about the past. Yet, German government has a very different stance toward the Nazi era. Mental lobotomy does not prevent real-life tragedies.

Until 1993, Japanese government had denied that the history of the “comfort women.” But that year, after the government study, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono recognized that Japanese Imperial Army had forced “comfort women,” to work in military-run brothels during World War II. In 2015, Kōno re-affirmed the statement.

So why is the Abe administration to revise history? The reasons are historical – and perhaps personal.

 

Sexual slavery, Nobusuke Kishi and Cold War

Today, the number of Japan’s wartime sex slaves is estimated at 200,000 women, although Chinese scholars in Shanghai, where a Japanese “comfort station” was established already in 1932, put the real figure at 360,000-400,000.

The very term “comfort women” is a euphemism for Japanese Imperial Army’s sex slaves.

In revisionist Japanese history, the role of these women has been downplayed. The very term “comfort women” is a euphemism for Japanese Imperial Army’s sex slaves. Most women were from areas occupied by Japan, particularly China and Korea, but also the Philippines. There were “comfort stations” in Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, East Timor and elsewhere. There were also hundreds of “comfort women” from the Netherlands and Australia.

Unlike his predecessors as Prime Minister and the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe has far-right views about history. He belongs to the ultranationalist Nippon Kaigi, which seeks to re-militarize Japan and to revive Imperial Japan and which, among other things, vehemently denies Japan’s “comfort women” history during World War II. That’s why in the late 1990s, he led the controversial Japanese history textbook reform, which downplayed Japan’s war crimes, including crimes against “comfort women.”

The enslavement of men paved the way to the exploitation of Chinese, Korean and other women as sex slaves in Japan’s occupied colonies in Asia.

But there is also a more personal reason. Abe comes from a political family dynasty. His grandfather Kan Abe and father Shintaro Abe were prominent politicians. His mother is the daughter of the highly controversial former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi. Starting in 1933, Kishi praised Nazi Germany as Japan’s model. In 1937, he signed a degree calling for the use of slave labor in Japanese puppet state Manchukuo. The enslavement of men paved the way to the exploitation of Chinese, Korean and other women as sex slaves in Japan’s occupied colonies in Asia.

Due to Kishi’s brutal rule in the Manchukuo and his participation in the Tojo War Cabinet during World War II, he was imprisoned for over three years as a Class A war criminal. In Germany, Nazi leaders were prosecuted, but not in Japan. When Washington launched its Cold War against the Soviet Union, it needed Japan as a key ally in Asia.

That’s when many Japanese war leaders were freed and enlisted by the U.S. to suppress Japanese communists and socialists. The most notable of them was Kishi, “America’s favorite war criminal.” who played a key role in the “1955 System,” which made the Liberal Democratic Party the dominant political force in Japan and America’s key ally until today.

 

Rising stakes in the international debate

Wartime sex slaves are not “just history.” While Abe’s reformers have tried to open the economy to more women, his politics promotes remilitarization that most Japanese oppose. And while Japan is one of the world’s major economies, it ranks only 110th worldwide in the Global Gender Report, far behind Myanmar and India. The lingering imperial fantasies contribute to Japan’s economic decline.

Forced silence about wartime sexual slavery is not acceptable in rest of Asia. In December, 2015, Abe and South Korean President Park Geun-hye, who was later impeached for corruption, agreed to settle the “comfort women” dispute. Tokyo would pay a paltry $8.3 million to a fund supporting remaining victims. South Korea would remain mum about the issue and remove a memorial statue for the victims.

South Koreans criticized the odd pact. After the imprisonment of the corrupt Park, Seoul began to demand recognition for its victims, along with a UN Committee (CEDAW). The UN human rights agency (OHCHR) also called on Japan to acknowledge its violation of the human rights of “comfort women,” take legal responsibility and punish responsible individuals

As international appeals did not work, the debate moved to a new stage. Recently, a South Korean court authorized the seizure of assets belonging to Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal, after the Japanese firm failed to comply with an earlier order to compensate victims of forced labor. Last week, Tokyo called the court decision “extremely regrettable,” while South Korean President Moon Jae-in urged Japan not to “politicize the issue” and to take a “more humble” attitude towards the past.”

The issue of the “comfort women” should not be politicized. As the Kono Statement evidences, most of Japan’s political leadership and most Japanese have acknowledged the “comfort women” history since the early 1990s. As polls indicate, only about a fifth of the population doesn’t – and that’s Abe’s core constituency.

The issue of the “comfort women” should not be politicized.

If the Abe administration fails to acknowledge the past, it cannot win the future that overshadows over a prosperous, but heavily indebted and declining nation.

The statues to commemorate the legacy of “comfort women” represent historical veracity and overdue moral right. Efforts to eradicate them will ultimately fail. When one is taken down, another will be erected elsewhere – until the truth prevails.

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About the Author

dan-steinbock-webDr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world. and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore).

For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/

The original commentary was published by The Manila Times on January 14, 2019

Featured image courtesy of: Kodao Productions

You Will not Need to Risk too Much for Trades

businessman trading buy sell stock market on digital screen

When you learn about the trading profession for the first time, the business process will be clear to you. Then traders will also learn about investing money into an account using the help of a broker. And the traders will also be able to learn about the possibilities of losing most of the time of trading. This kind of information do not make any good impression to the traders and some of them do not get the right amount of courage for their own business. In this article, we are going to talk about the proper trading business. Using the right kind of approaching strategy to the trades any trader can make the right kind of trading profession. We hope all confused traders can learn from this article and improve their trading performance for the profits.

 

Make profit target from the trades

To make a profit, you will have to imagine it. No, we are not talking about the greed of making a profit from trades. The real thing required for traders is the position sizes.

Using the right kind of approaching strategy to the trades any trader can make the right kind of trading profession.

When the traders will be able to do that for their own businesses, there will hardly be any poor trades. All trades are going to have a proper plan for executions. Then traders are also going to make a proper opening and closing position from the markets. By making we meant that the whole trade will be designed properly by the traders. For that, all the traders will have to make the right kind of profit target from the trades. You will not be able to find out the right swing or trend of the chart if there is no target of making a profit.

 

Trade with low leverage

Though most of the reputed broker is offering high leverage trading account this doesn’t mean you will be placing trades with big lots. Learn to trade with managed risk so that you can easily recover the loss amounts. Online trading Australia is extremely popular and you must be careful with your trade execution. Never think Forex trading is a shortcut way to become a rich person. Just like any other business, you will have to work hard to develop yourself as a successful trader.

 

Find the swings for best position size

After defining the proper targets for the trades like 1:2, traders will be able to find position size. For that, they will have to maintain a proper analogy over the markets and the price charts. We are talking about all the things associated with the change in currency pair’s price change.

Learn to trade with managed risk so that you can easily recover the loss amounts.

At the beginning of your career, you may not be able to keep up with the news and the trading at the same time. There is no need for that. For the position traders, it is needed to maintain the proper track on the condition of financial and political regions. But for a novice trader, the swing analysis is enough to make some proper profit. If there is some more needed, you can accept help of the support and resistance levels of the price charts.

 

The risks must not be too much to handle

Like making plans for everything related to the trading approach, the traders will also have to make a risk management plan. It is important to make the trades right with proper risks. If you do not do it, the tension of the trading business will be a lot onto you. Then the trading process will not be maintained properly. Some of the readers may think about making more money. However, it is not possible to make money and keep it intact without being secure with the trading capital. Managing the risks per trade is the most micro level management for the trading business.

 

Never underestimate the sentiment of the Forex market

Two stock brokers in front of a live global market feed in a bustling, futuristic office.

There are thousands of traders who have invested their money to trade in Forex. A trader may find it easy to make the profit but only successful trader knows the hard work and the practice behind it. People like to think of themselves as heroes and they often underestimate the opponents. The opponents are not small in numbers and they can play an important part in changing the trend. This article will tell why the opponents should be respected in Forex even if they are novices. It is not necessary that a professional trader is only recognized as an opponent. An enemy is an enemy no matter how small they are. Unless the mindset of a trader is unchanged and does not show respect to traders, making profit will always be hard work.

 

Market sentiment

Market sentiment plays a great role in your trading success.

It is not necessary that a professional trader is only recognized as an opponent. An enemy is an enemy no matter how small they are.

You might be wondering if technical analysis is the key ingredients to become a successful trader. Many traders in the United Kingdom have mastered technical analysis yet they are struggling hard to make money in the Forex market. The only reason they are losing money is lack of proper market analysis. You need to understand the three major forms of market analysis to become a profitable trader.

 

Developing yourself as a currency trading

This is the hardest part of the currency trading business. You don’t have any idea what is Forex trading? But there is nothing to worry about. There are plenty of websites and many brokers like ETX Capital which are offering free education to new traders. Being a new participant doesn’t mean you will have to lose money all the time. Focus on your goals and trade the market with proper discipline. Always remember to assess the sentiment of the market as it will save a huge amount of money in the long run. Try to be a smart trader to make a consistent profit from this market.

 

A big group of the novices can change the trend

If they have a huge amount of money and invest at the same time, it is possible that the trend will change. Do not laugh because the brokers apply the technique to make up fake trends. If the trend can be in your favor, it is possible to make the best use of the volatility. Brokers try to influence the volatility by depositing a huge amount of money and the trend only changes for a small time. The traders get confused and they believe it to be a good chance and place the traders to lose the money. Not all traders are professional like you and they always try to invest more money to get more profit. Respect them and know their strategies before deciding to invest the capital.

 

A formidable trader can come from anywhere

It is not necessary that a great trader will have a great history of financial trading. He can come from anywhere and make miracles happen in this industry.

If the trend can be in your favor, it is possible to make the best use of the volatility.

Try to know about the history of trading and there are many examples where people from diverse backgrounds made history. A trader who has a history of trading in share and bonds should not be more respected than the trader who does not have that kind of background. Every trader can change by working hard and knowing the patterns. Be respectful and always try to make the strategies better. Who knows if a trader from a small village is not practicing the strategy to develop a successful career? Do not take a chance and always give respect to every trader.

 

The opponents are the profit sharers

There are no people who would like to share their wealth with other traders. Always practice in the best way you can to make money. It will be hard but never give up. If there are any mistakes, your opponents will come and take away your money.

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Peace for Syria and a New Kurdistan as Regional Stabilizing Factor?

two businessman handshake over kurdistan and syria flag

By Peter Koenig

The US will withdraw her troops from Syria. Will they really? – Let’s take Trump at his word, just for argument’s sake. Though in the meantime, RT reports that the withdrawal may be slower than anticipated, to allow Erdogan making his own “strategic arrangements”, while US troops depart. During his flash visit to the US troops in Iraq on Christmas Day, Mr. Trump already indicated that any US intervention – if necessary – would be launched from Iraq. Of course.

The US will not let go of such a strategic country with access to Four Seas, as promoted by President Bashar al-Assad, linking the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf into an energy network. Washington had the full dominion of Syria in mind as the pivotal country in the Middle East, already when Washington first attempted to “negotiate” with Bashar’s dad, Háfez al-Ásad, in the late 1990s, and then after his death in 2000, the secret gnomes of Washington continued the process of coercion with Háfez’s son and heir, Bashar. To no avail, as we know.

Therefore, the question, “Will Syria ever Become a “Normal” Country Again?” – sounds almost rhetorical. Syria is one of those predestined countries to “fall”, decided by the empire, long before the ascension to the throne by Mr. Trump. Others include and are well outlined in the PNAC (Plan for a New American Century) – Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon – and Iran. As we see, the plan is progressing nicely – and letting go of any of the ‘milestones’ within this plan – is simply not in the cards. Deviations are not tolerated. That’s presumably why James “Mad Dog” Mattis resigned as Secretary of Defense upon Trump’s announcement to withdraw from Syria. The Pentagon has its mandate, given by the Military Industrial Complex.

 

No human suffering is able to halt this project – and we can but hope that Russia and China see clear on this, that they won’t fall for promises of peace, for make-believe withdrawals, for lies and deceit.

So, war or peace (and war it is) has become full spectrum Pentagon territory, not to be meddled with. It has nothing to do with terrorism, or saving the world from terrorism – it is pure and simple ´calcule’ for profit from the war machine, from stolen and confiscated oil and gas and, ultimately but not lastly, for full power dominance of the world. The Middle East is one of those focal points of the empire that needs to be plunged into eternal chaos. Peace is never an option. Unless empire falls. But until then, the Middle East is a multi-purpose ‘gold mine’, in terms of resources, a test ground for the East-West arms race, a terrain for almost endless destruction – and reconstruction – and a bottomless source of a continuous and destabilizing flow of refugees to Europe. It’s all planned. No human suffering is able to halt this project – and we can but hope that Russia and China see clear on this, that they won’t fall for promises of peace, for make-believe withdrawals, for lies and deceit.

Will Syria ever become a ‘normal’ country again? – I opt for yes. But empire must fall. And fall it will. It’s a question of time and maybe strategy? – For hundreds of years, the Kurds are an ethnicity of between 25 and 35 million people. They inhabit a mountainous region straddling the borders of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran and a tiny bit of Armenia. They make up the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, but they have never obtained a permanent nation state. Wouldn’t this rearrangement of power in Syria due to the apparent US troop withdrawals be an opportunity to find a solution for the century old Kurdish “problem”?

President Assad might seize the opportunity to accept the Kurds ‘invitation’ to enter the city of Manbij, the current Kurdish stronghold in Syria. And this despite the fact that the Kurds have often fought against the Syrian military, either alongside the US / NATO forces or alongside ISIS. It’s time to rethink geopolitics in the Middle East, beginning with Syria. After all, Manbij is Syrian territory, and Turkey has no legitimate claim on any land within Syria. Except in the case of a possible land swap.

On these grounds Syria might want to initiate negotiations with Turkey, Iraq and Iran to finally establish within the borders of Syria and Iraq (and Iran, as it were), some kind of a Kurdish territory which might over time become a fully autonomous Kurdish Homeland, what today is already called, Kurdistan. Much like Israel was carved out of Palestine, except that Israel was an artificial creation, commanded by outside forces, with the specific purpose already 70 years ago to destabilize the region. Whereas Kurdistan would be a stabilizing factor, a natural process facilitated by the countries within the region.

There are, of course, other players with high stakes in this peace process, like Russia, Turkey and Iraq – and the two rogue nations, paradoxically bound together, Israel and Saudia Arabia. Two nations that have no right whatsoever to even come close to Syria. But they continue having US support, even with the apparent US withdrawal from Syria, or because of it, as they will now play the role of US proxies in fighting Mr. Assad’s legitimate regime.

Russia would most likely prefer no Turkish interference in Syria, for example the occupation of Manbij, but would rather see Syrian control of Syrian territory with negotiated land swap deals with neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Iraq, to bring eventually the Kurdish question to a solution. That is of course just the beginning. The easy part.

The creation of an autonomous region within Syria, Iraq and Iran, called Kurdistan, might require not only an honest process and equitable division of the Black Gold, but also a withdrawal of Trukey from Kurdistan, i.e. through a land swap.

The current semi-offical Kurdistan is one of the oil richest territories of the region. At present these oil resources are divided more or less along the border divisions of Kurdistan, i.e. Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. For these countries hydrocarbon is a key factor in their economy. Therefore, the creation of an autonomous region within Syria, Iraq and Iran, called Kurdistan, might require not only an honest process and equitable division of the Black Gold, but also a withdrawal of Trukey from Kurdistan, i.e. through a land swap. The development towards a sovereign Kurdistan – no time frame might at this point be suggested – would require Kurdish concessions. In other words, peace and homeland have a price. However, this price will never even come close to the benefits of independence and peace.

At present, Kurdistan’s oil reserves are estimated at 45 billion gallon, almost a third of Iraq’s total untapped 150 billion gallons of petrol. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), with her capital, Erbil in Iraq (pop. about 900,000), would of course prefer becoming an independent state. But that is just not going to happen out of the blue. Therefore, peace in the region and a Kurdish Homeland is worth a negotiated land and petrol concession. And when would be a better moment for such thoughts and negotiations than NOW?

The re-opening of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) embassy in Syria, may be considered a major public step to welcoming Bashar al-Assad back into the fold of the Arab League, from which Syria was banned at the beginning of the 2011 CIA induced war on Mr. Assad’s government.

There are other signs that Syria is in the process of becoming a “normal” country again. The re-opening of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) embassy in Syria, may be considered a major public step to welcoming Bashar al-Assad back into the fold of the Arab League, from which Syria was banned at the beginning of the 2011 CIA induced war on Mr. Assad’s government. Bahrain has also announced it will reopen shortly diplomatic relations with Damascus. Is this move by the UAE and Bahrain the first step of a new “Arab solidarity”? – In any case, it signals a new recognition of Syria under President Assad.

With Syria becoming a fully autonomous and sovereign country again, where diplomatic missions are being re-established and where refugees return to help rebuild their nation, and where a new Kurdistan, may just be the dot bringing peace and stability to the region. Though that may succeed only without any Atlantist interference – being handled only as a regional project.

A last thought for those who are shaking their heads in disbelief, because of the political and economic volatility of Kurdistan, due to her exorbitant oil riches which are currently spread among four countries – listen! – peak oil is a thing of the past. Hydrocarbons are rather rapidly being replaced as the key energy provider by alternative sources of energy, of which the Middle East also has plenty, but which cannot be stolen – solar energy. The East, foremost China, is rapidly developing new and more efficient ways of transferring sun light into electricity, with the appropriate storage technology that may make it possible to largely phase out hydrocarbons within the next generation.

Hence, the momentum is NOW – US troop withdrawals – to create a stabilizing Kurdistan and make Syria a “normal country again.

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About the Author
Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; TeleSUR; The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

Peter Koenig is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

First published by the New Eastern Outlook – NEO

Is the Trade War a Worrying Sign of a New U.S.–China Relationship?

U.S.–China Relationship
Political flags of China and United States of America on table in international negotiation room. concept of negotiations, collaboration and cooperation of countries. agreement between the governments.

By Qing Shan Ding

With bilateral trade between the U.S. and China estimated to be worth $710 billion a year, a blooming trade war benefits no one. The causes of this trade war go beyond issues such as intellectual properties and deficits; it reflects a bigger pattern that the U.S. is wary of a growing challenger threatening its global influence.

Despite ongoing negotiations, there are no signs to suggest the trade war between the U.S. and China is about to end. The U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on China worth another $267 billion. This is in addition to existing tariffs of $50 billion and imminent tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. All the proposed combined tariffs will be worth $517 billion, virtually the entire Chinese exports to America.[i] China has vowed to respond if the latest tariffs come into force.

This escalating trade war between the two largest economies in the world makes no economic sense. The trade between the U.S. and China amounts to roughly $710 billion a year.[ii] In a globalised economy, China and the U.S. are highly dependent on each other. Earlier in the year, U.S. Department of Commerce has banned U.S. companies from supplying components to the Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE which resulted in the company being unable to function for a few months, and the impact of new tariffs has already harmed American businesses – from aircraft manufacturers to baby cot makers.[iii] The potential damage to economic growth and job losses will be severe on both sides. So what are root causes of this damaging trillion-dollar trade dispute?

The American rationale for imposing these tariffs is well documented. It started with the U.S. Trade Representative’s Section 301 investigations and concluded the alleged Chinese theft of American intellectual properties and forced technology transfers as the main justification for imposing tariffs. Donald Trump’s insistence on cutting the trade deficit with China is another motivation. However, China has already committed on greater protection of intellectual property and ending mandatory technology transfer in joint ventures. There are no immediate signs to suggest tariffs actually work, China’s surplus with the U.S. increased by 10% in August to $31 billion.[iv]

 

There must be other considerations behind this costly impasse. One of the Chinese government’s initiatives has been scrutinised numerous times in the original investigation. The “Made in China 2025” is a government industry and technology strategy aiming to build strategic capability and innovation power in prioritised sectors. Already considered as industry leaders in some sectors such as industrial robotics, high speed rail and renewable energies, it seems that the American government has started to worry China might start to challenge its global leadership in technology and innovation.[v] And the Trump administration is determined to stop China at all cost.

This trade war also reflects a broader strategic shift. It suggests the U.S. is starting to re-evaluate its relationship with China. Ever since Richard Nixon’s surprise visit to China in the 1970s, both countries were committed to build a healthy relationship which resulted into one of the biggest trading relationship and two inter-dependent economies. However, in recent years, there are alterative thinking which started to emerge that treated China as a rivalry rather than a partner. The Obama administration’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy was largely interpreted in China as a move to contain its growing influence in Asia.[vi] American warships regularly challenging China in the disputed waters of South China Sea is the latest example of the two countries competing for leadership in the region.[vii] All these confrontations add further ammunitions to those in the U.S. who believe that China is becoming a threat to its global leadership.

Other ambitious projects abroad cause nothing but further suspicion. One of President Xi Jinping’s signature initiatives is the “One Belt One Road” strategy. It is a massive infrastructure programme that aims to link China with the Middle East, Europe, Africa and beyond via high-speed rail and sea shipping lanes. It is an economic and diplomatic strategy capable of transforming global trade. This initiative will enable regional collaborations to an unprecedented level and establish China at the centre of a new global trade system.[viii]

The Chinese RMB is long way away from matching the dominance of U.S. dollar. However, some might consider the growing influence of Chinese currency as another example of China’s challenge on America’s global leadership.

China’s planned internationalisation of its currency RMB is another sour spot for some China doubters. Apart from constantly branding China as a currency manipulator, the U.S. also worries about the growing influence of RMB in international trade. China sees overreliance on the U.S. dollar for the trade settlement transaction as risky for China in times of economic uncertainty. In recent years, the Chinese government has pushed the internationalisation of RMB gradually, and in November 2015 RMB was included in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights currency basket. China has started to use RMB to replace the U.S. dollar in some of its biggest international trade deals. Ironically, the trade war is helping to boost the use of RMB in international transactions. Despite the tariffs and depreciation of RMB, as of the end of the second quarter, overseas institutional and individual holdings of RMB-denominated financial assets totalled 4.9 trillion Yuan (US$717 billion), which means the share of RMB-denominated stocks and bonds as a percentage of total assets held by global investors increased to about 3.0%.[ix] The Chinese RMB is long way away from matching the dominance of U.S. dollar. However, some might consider the growing influence of Chinese currency as another example of China’s challenge on America’s global leadership. The dominant position of U.S. dollar in the global financial system is the product of post second world war Bretton Woods system, one of the most coveted assets of the American government.

In Africa, China already sidelined the U.S. and Europe in terms of economic cooperation, investment and wider engagement. The recent announcement of a further $60 billion investment in Africa sparked criticisms of new colonialism. Although readily dismissed by African leaders, the biggest gathering of representatives from almost every African country for a summit in Beijing, and some leaders’ claim of a new world order will no doubt strengthen the belief that China is reshaping global geopolitics and challenging American influence.[x]

It has to be pointed out that the Chinese government needs to take some of the blames for fracturing one of its most important diplomatic relationships. In recent months, China has started to downplay the Made in China 2025 policy. The excessive propaganda of this industrial policy and boasting of China’s capabilities have alarmed the U.S. and European countries, and played an unintended role of fanning the flames that led to this trade war. In China’s diplomatic cycles some officials have suggested it was a mistake for the government to promote this policy so forcefully and publicly.[xi] As a result, one of the propaganda chief was rumoured to have been forced to step down.

Beijing might have wrongly believed Trump was bluffing and was not determined to carry through his threats.[i] This inevitably led the trade tensions to escalate and now both sides are locked in a difficult situation in which no one wants to be perceived as weak.

Another major political miscalculation by Beijing is they might have misjudged the situation. The Chinese leadership seemed to have been caught off guard by Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and considered it too much as election vote winning tactics. Beijing also appeared to underestimate the growing anti-China sentiment amongst the American elite and policymakers. What’s more damaging is they could have misjudged Trump as well, simply dismissed him as a businessman that could be persuaded by offering some commercial incentives such as allowing its hotel chain to operate in China. Beijing might have wrongly believed Trump was bluffing and was not determined to carry through his threats.[xii] This inevitably led the trade tensions to escalate and now both sides are locked in a difficult situation in which no one wants to be perceived as weak.

There is no doubt the stakes are very high, as the world economies become ever more interconnected, the global supply chain could easier be destroyed by any further escalation. South East Asian countries such as South Korea and Malaysia are already victims, as their companies supply vast amount of components and other so called “intermediate goods” to China.[xiii] Certainly, many around the globe hope both countries could return to negotiation tables and reach a resolution. However, to find an agreeable compromise could prove to be very difficult. On China’s side, President Xi has position itself as a strong leader, any move that can be interpreted as weak will be perceived as unacceptable domestically.

Perhaps, the U.S. will be able to soften its stance. As the chief economics commentator of the Financial Times Martin Wolf suggested, no sovereign power could accept the humiliating demands being made by the U.S.[xiv] The demand for a reduction of the bilateral deficits by $200 billion is unrealistic; it would literally require the Chinese state to take control of its economy and artificially manage its export. The notion of U.S. gaining unrestricted access to investment in China but reserving the right to restrict Chinese investment is also unacceptable. It is ridiculous to impede China from advancing its manufacturing capabilities and stop technological innovation.

With the looming mid-term election in the U.S., perhaps, some of the suffering American farmers, one of Trump’s strongest supporting bases could persuade the administration to change its stance. This combined with some American business leaders’ warning about the dangers to jobs and growth of the trade war between the two biggest economic powers, could potentially force the Trump administration to lessen its demands.

China might have already started to prepare for the worst. The Chinese government announced it will boost domestic infrastructure spending, including a new Sichuan-Tibet high speed rail line, to offset the adverse effects of the trade dispute.[xv] The expert analysis from the Hoover Institution which suggests China’s economic growth could be reduced by only 0.3% due to the trade war could further strengthen their belief that it is a risk worth taking.[xvi] For the Chinese leadership, they have to hold on to its negotiating positions, because this trade war reminds many Chinese people of its humiliating past. In the 19th century, they were forced to open its borders and trade by gunboats and unequal treaties. What followed was a century of humiliation in the school history books, no Chinese leader, even the mighty President Xi, would survive signing a trade agreement deemed as an abject surrender.

 

Featured image courtesy: Nikki Asian Review

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About the Author
Dr Qing Shan Ding is a Senior Lecturer in Marketing at the University of Huddersfield, United Kingdom. His primary research area is Chinese consumers, studying the impact of country of origin, consumer ethnocentrism and consumer animosity. Qing also writes about modern China and its changing economy.

References

[1] http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs-267-billion-goods-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

[1] https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45255623

[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2163352/trade-war-chinas-surplus-us-grows-10-cent-us31-billion-donald

[1] https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-does-everyone-hate-made-china-2025

[1] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-american-pivot-to-asia/

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/27/world/asia/china-us-navy-paracel-islands.html

[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/chinas-one-belt-one-road-will-it-reshape-global-trade

[1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/2163421/us-china-trade-war-helping-boost-use-yuan-international-transactions

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-africa-bejing-forum-investment-interest-free-loans-a8522376.html

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-madeinchina2025-exclu/exclusive-facing-u-s-blowback-beijing-softens-made-in-china-2025-message-idUSKBN1JL12U

[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2157028/did-china-think-donald-trump-was-bluffing-trade-how?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1532628445

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/us-china-trade-war-other-asian-economies-at-risk.html

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/dd2af6b0-4fc1-11e8-9471-a083af05aea7

[1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-War/China-to-boost-railway-spending-by-10bn-to-absorb-trade-war-impact

[1] https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/18105-ferguson-xu-final.pdf

Legalised Sports Betting – What Will it Mean for the US?

Looking back on gambling in 2018, it’s clear what one of the biggest and most seismic moments was. On June 14th, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy placed the first legal bet in the state he represents. He made two wagers – $20 on Germany to win the World Cup, and another $20 on the local Jersey Devils hockey team to take next year’s Stanley Cup. Modest bets perhaps, but it was still a landmark moment. It marked the beginning of legal US sports betting and the start of a business that could be worth $6 billion by 2023.

Seven states have since legalised sports betting (Nevada, New Jersey, Delaware, West Virginia, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) while a further 19 states either recently passed a bill or had one introduced. Meanwhile, professional sports leagues that were previously opposed to legalising sports betting are scrambling to get in on the action.

The long road to legalisation

Murphy’s first bet didn’t come without a struggle. The road towards legalisation began in 2012 with Democrat Senator Ray Lesniak officially raising the issue of individual states being able to determine whether sports betting would be legalised within their borders.

Before that could happen, a federal law known as PASPA (Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act) – which prohibited states from making their own decision on sports gambling – had to be overturned. Lesniak and his allies faced tough opposition from the likes of the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NCAA and the NBA, all of which were concerned that legitimising sports gambling could compromise profits.

Victory for proponents of sports betting finally came in May, however, when the Supreme Court ended 26 years of restrictions and set the stage for Murphy’s bet just a few weeks later. It was a move that added more than £1.5 billion to the value of London-listed betting companies in the space of 24 hours. You can find out more about the initial reaction from that remarkable day and more analysis here in this insightful feature about US sports betting.

Sports leagues get on board

Despite an initial reticence to embrace sports betting, the major sports leagues are getting involved quickly. An initial hope was that they could collect a so-called ‘integrity fee’ of 0.25 per cent to one per cent of proceeds to cover the alleged additional costs associated with keeping their sports corruption-free. The gambling industry, however, has pushed back.

Speaking at a November sports betting conference in New York, MGM CEO Jim Murren said: “We’re not interested in paying an integrity fee. We’re actually offended by that concept. But we are willing to pay – and pay well – for data and sponsorships and co-branding. In-game betting is going to be so popular that to have league-endorsed data, the most relevant and current, is going to be critical.”

An organisation that’s been early to embrace this stance is the NBA. Scott Kaufman-Ross, vice president and head of fantasy and gaming for the NBA, said the league acknowledged and recognised the changing landscape brought about by the shift in legislation. “We’re going to have better results in a regulated market than an unregulated market,” he said.

The upshot is a deal with Sportradar and Genius Sports to distribute NBA betting data to sports gambling providers in the US.

Meanwhile, Major League Baseball, the NBA, WNBA and NHL have reached agreements to partner with MGM Resorts to become an official gambling partner. In the world of online gambling, one leading operator struck a deal with the New York Jets, which agreed to feature its branding during games. There’s no doubt more partnership deals will be agreed in the coming months as more brands try to manoeuvre themselves into a commanding position for when the floodgates open and online sports betting and gambling is finally legalised across the US.

A potentially huge boost to the US economy

There are numerous arguments as to how much the US stands to gain from legalising sports betting – but by all estimates, it’s pretty sizeable. Americans bet an estimated $4.76 billion on Super Bowl 52 this year – but only 3 per cent of that was done legally. The rest went offshore through international betting applications. One study claims the black market for sports betting is around $400 billion. Now that legalisation of sports betting is possible, there’s hope that this kind of money can be kept in the economy, and reinvested in public services such as schools, transport and hospitals.

An Oxford Economics report commissioned by the American Gaming Association and published in 2017 found that sports betting could contribute $11.6 billion to $14.2 billion to US gross domestic product annually, depending on the specifics of which states adopt it and what tax rates they use.

Investment bank Moelis & Company has gone further, predicting that if all 50 states follow New Jersey’s example the industry could be worth between $20 billion and $25 billion. Furthermore, the Oxford Economics report found that legal sports betting would create between 125,000 and 152,000 jobs, paying between $6 billion and $7.5 billion in total wages.

“It feels like a gold rush”

The United Kingdom, which has had legal sports betting since 1961, is seen by many as an example of the benefits legalised sports gambling can bring. The Gross Gambling Yield in Britain from 2016 to 2017 was £13.8 billion – the equivalent to £208.50 for each citizen. Online gambling has caused the industry to balloon, and now accounts for £4.5 billion annually. It’s the UK’s largest single source of gambling revenue.

In the US, research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming LLC estimates that online gambling could account for $9 billion of sports betting revenue thanks to the ease of access to mobile applications. As Sharon Otterman put it: “It definitely feels like a gold rush – the new industry with everybody trying to get a piece of it.”

Whatever the future may be, it offers massive potential boons for sports leagues, gambling firms and sports fans alike, not to mention to US tax coffers that are losing billions of potential tax dollars to the black and grey markets.

Summary

In short, it remains to be seen what benefits legalised sports betting could bring the US – and indeed, when US citizens can begin to enjoy them. But momentum is certainly well behind this emerging industry that’s already flourished in many other parts of the developed world.

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Media Pundits, Economic Hitmen and Duterte’s Rebalancing

By Dan Steinbock

President Duterte’s recalibration of Philippine foreign policy has the potential for greater stability in the region. But it has unleashed the wrath of media pundits and economic hitmen.

 

During President Xi Jinping’s visit to Manila, some 30 bilateral agreements were signed. A memorandum of understanding (MOU) on cooperation on oil and gas development in the South China Sea topped the list of deals in trade and investment, infrastructure, and cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative.

Duterte’s recalibration seeks to couple longstanding relations with the U.S. with Sino-Philippine economic cooperation. It is a balancing act, not an act of exclusion. In contrast, there was an element of exclusion in the foreign policy in the Aquino era when good relations with Washington were seen to require distance from China.

Today, some critics of the Duterte policies push similar exclusionary ideas seeking to misrepresent or undermine the Sino-Philippine rapprochement. Ostensibly, this occurs in the name of Philippine national interest, yet these pundits and hitmen are affiliated by external economic and geopolitical interests.

Let’s take a closer look at just two such examples. Neither is an isolated case. More recent examples abound. And still more are likely to occur in the future.

 

Media pundits and geopolitical interests

A year ago, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), a U.S. think-tank, published a release about “A Constructive Year for Chinese Base Building.” What made the long report intriguing were the many satellite photos and aerial imagery. Yet, the pre-Christmas release did not generate much chatter.

A month later, Richard Heydarian, portrayed as an independent academic and policy adviser, released an AMTI update, “ASEAN Under Duterte: Lost Opportunities on the South China Sea” (Jan 12, 2018). Heydarian complained that “under Duterte’s watch, ASEAN has lost a crucial opportunity to hold China to account.” Thereafter, GMA News headlined his “take on PHL allowing China to do maritime research in Benham Rise” (January 23, 2018). He was portrayed as “GMA News resident analyst.” No mention was made about his author affiliation with AMTI.

 

To foster debate, the Inquirer’s Frances Mangosing released another “exclusive” entitled “New photos show China done with its militarization of South China Sea” (Feb 4, 2018). The “source” of aerial photos was not identified, but the photos were reminiscent of those published previously by the AMTI. That led to a new – this time anonymous – AMTI release based on Inquirer’s story, which noted that most images “were taken in late 2017 by an unspecified patrol aircraft from an altitude of 1,500 meters” (Feb 16, 2018). It was followed by Mangosing’s new piece, “Kagitingan Reef may be China’s ‘intelligence hub’ in Spratlys – US think-tank” (Feb 18, 2018), based on the AMTI release.

Richard Heydarian, portrayed as an independent academic and policy adviser, released an AMTI update, “ASEAN Under Duterte: Lost Opportunities on the South China Sea” (Jan 12, 2018). Heydarian complained that “under Duterte’s watch, ASEAN has lost a crucial opportunity to hold China to account.”

In reality, AMTI is a subsidiary of the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a multimillion-dollar U.S. think-tank led by members of U.S. government, State Department, Congress and Pentagon. Heydarian is a member contributor of the AMTI, the CSIS, and Council for Foreign Relations. His Twitter account is visualized by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which is pushing an “Indo-Pacific Age” in Asia – which just happens to be the name of Heydarian’s forthcoming book.

That leaves the mystery of the source of the satellite photos. In addition to CSIS/AMTI, they belong to DigitalGlobe, which is a U.S. multibillion-dollar vendor of space imagery and geospatial content. In 2016, DigitalGlobe teamed up with Amazon, which has a $600 million 10-year cloud deal with the CIA, and CIA’s venture arm In-Q-Tel which has been active in Silicon Valley since 1999. 

There is nothing illegitimate about such affiliations or the content they produce. But they are beholden mainly to U.S. geopolitical interests. Truthful journalism should acknowledge such linkages, not suppress them.

 

Hitmen and economic interests

Since 2016, President Duterte has pushed an infrastructure investment program which relies on sustained growth at close to 7% per year. The strategy is to become an upper middle-income economy by early 2020s. Yet, the effort has been almost systemically misreported internationally.

In May 2017, Philippine Department of Budget and Management (DBM) estimated that $167 billion would be spent on infrastructure during Duterte’s six-year term. A day later, Forbes released a widely-distributed commentary, which alleged that this debt “Could Balloon to $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.” The author, Anders Corr, expected the Philippine government debt of $123 billion to soar to $290 billion. Assuming that most monies would come from China and with excessive mafia-type interest rates, Corr argued that with accrued interest Philippines would end up in debt bondage as debt-to-GDP ratio would balloon to a world-record of 296%.

Like Heydarian, Corr was framed as an independent observer. Yet, according to his own testimony and that of U.S. Naval Institute, he has done “field research” in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. He has had “deals” with Pentagon on Russia and Ukraine. In Afghanistan he has served US Pacific Command and U.S. Special Operations Command Pacific for U.S. national security in Asia.

In May 2017, Philippine Department of Budget and Management (DBM) estimated that $167 billion would be spent on infrastructure during Duterte’s six-year term. A day later, Forbes released a widely-distributed commentary, which alleged that this debt “Could Balloon to $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.”

After the 2017 Forbes debacle, Corr seemed to disappear from public debates. Now he’s back, particularly in Australia. He has urged Trump to get tougher in South China Sea, bullied Pakistan with sanctions, advocated US nuclear weapons against North Korea and blamed China for being the ringleader of global terrorism. Despite grossly failed projections, he continues to be used an “expert” by major media.

Corr also has his media trolls. In August 2017, Singaporean-based ASEAN Today, which has many references to Corr’s pieces, published his Forbes piece with the new title: “Is the Philippines heading into a debt crisis?” Maybe the idea was to divide the ASEAN Summit, which Duterte would host weeks later. Yet, the piece was signed by ASEAN Today’s editor Oliver Ward. Interestingly, Ward does not reside in Singapore, but in Boston, U.S. where he also contributes to The Hill Reporter and OpenDemocracy sites, which are funded by Soros foundations and National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Around the same time, the NED also hosted the launch of Heydarian’s critical book on Duterte in the U.S.

So what’s the truth about the alleged “debt bondage”? Let’s compare these forecasts with IMF projections. Between 2017 and 2022, the DBM estimated the debt would mildly decline. My estimate was slightly more conservative because I expect trade wars to have some adverse impact toward 2019-2020. In contrast, Corr claimed Philippine debt-to-GDP ratio would soar to 300% of GDP by 2022. In reality, IMF’s forecast is closely aligned with my projection and that of DBM. In contrast, Corr’s “projections” have nothing to do with reality (Figure).

 

 

The lessons

The moral of the story is that, in the Philippines debate about China and the U.S., independent analysts may sometimes be not that independent. Transparent initiatives may at times prove very opaque. Democracy organizations may promote anti-democratic goals. And even reputable reporters, observers and economic analysts may occasionally serve as assets for external interests – knowingly or not.

In such circumstances, mainstream news may be less about actual news than about carefully choreographed exercises of soft power.

Featured image by Sunstar Philippines

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About the Author

Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world economy. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

The original commentary was released by The Manila Times on December 11, 2018.

Avoid GDPR Governance Penalties and Improve Your Business with Cloud Computing

General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) European Union (EU) Security technology background.

The introduction of the EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) has made the issue of data storage, access and, ultimately, overall governance vastly more significant. Indeed, with businesses inside and outside the European Union required by law to follow the new data protection guidelines, everyone has been affected. From a financial perspective, the penalties for non-compliance can be severe. Described as “effective, proportionate and dissuasive”, the fines can be as high as 4% of a company’s annual turnover or up to €20 million/$22 million, whichever is greater.

Initial Investments Are Worth It in the End

However, even though compliance is necessary both legally and financially, many businesses have found it hard to meet the required standards. According to a survey by ICSA, 78% of organizations said that becoming GDPR compliant was a “heavy burden” on their resources. But, as is often the case in business, heavy investment can lead to long-term gains. By investing in the right software to become GDPR compliant, a company can actually improve data governance. Today, thanks to cloud computing, handling data doesn’t have to be a chore.

For businesses, the most important data issue is security. Using cloud services such as a web application firewall (WAF), a company has the ability to filter out threats before they become a problem. Beyond that, cloud security software has the power to constantly adapt to the latest threats. Because the software is based online, it has the ability to analyze information in real-time. This allows it to track data security issues such as uncovering risky users by using machine learning to establish when a threat is truly dangerous and when it’s a false positive.

Greater Control Leads to Greater Productivity


“Server – Cyber Security” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by perspec_photo88

This has two benefits in terms of data governance. Firstly, cloud security software protects any stored data. Secondly, it reduces the amount of time spent chasing false leads. By using an adaptive system that can learn to spot real threats from fake ones, a business can streamline its operation and reduce costs. In fact, this idea of streamlining feeds into the other major benefit of using cloud services: organization. Modern cloud servers not only allow companies to store data online but have greater control over the information. As well as advanced search tools that allow data to be filtered and organized in specific ways, cloud software is highly flexible.

Because data can be held on multiple virtual servers, it reduces the risk of a crash taking down an entire system or data being lost. What’s more, businesses can choose products that allow them to scale the amount of storage they use depending on their needs at a particular time. The upshot of this is that costs can be managed more effectively. Therefore, while the initial investment to become GDPR compliant may be high, it will help reduce long-term costs. Indeed, by using cloud service, a business will not only meet the latest EU data regulations but have more control over the information they store. What’s more, they’ll be able to obtain greater insights into their business which, in turn, can lead to greater efficiency, productivity and profits.

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