Home Blog Page 1046

How US Trade War Is Spreading from Goods to Services

Photo manipulated image of cargo containers making up the words Tit for Tariff.

By Dr. Dan Steinbock

Trump tariff wars are entering a new, far more dangerous phase. As the White House is expanding its tariff wars, collateral damage is about to spread from goods to services – much of it in the U.S.

After months of trade threats, the Trump administration announced its 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective in early July, while threatening levies on another $16 billion of imports. To defend its sovereign interest, China responded with 25% tariffs on $34 billion of US imports and recently imposed an additional tariff of 25% on $16 billion of US imports effective on August 23.

As Trump is escalating his tariff war, a total of $50 billion of goods on each side will be taxed as of Thursday.

Not so long ago, there was still relatively serious talk about the US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). After all, Chinese foreign direct investment soared to a record $46 billion in 2016. But that was in the pre-Trump era.

Last year, Trump threats caused Chinese investment in the US to plunge to $29 billion, partly due to deleveraging in China but mainly thanks to very stringent US regulatory reviews of inbound acquisitions. After months of trade war, Chinese investment in 2018, asset divestitures included, is negative in the US.

In the coming weeks, things will go from bad to worse, as US tariffs are about to spread from goods to services. Ironically, that’s when much of the collateral damage will hit the US, however.

Collateral damage in services wars

Historically, advanced economies tend to enjoy service surpluses but goods deficits in trade, thanks to higher productivity and value-added. And US-Chinese trade ties are no exception.

As China exports far more goods to US than vice versa, Chinese retaliations already cover more US goods (85%) than US tariffs cover Chinese imports (50%).

According to most recent data (2017), US goods exports to China are $130 billion, whereas imports from China are to $506 billion. As a result, US trade deficit with China amounts to $375 billion. In contrast, US services exports to China are $54 billion, while services imports from China are $16 billion (2016 figures). Consequently, US trade services trade surplus with China is $38 billion.

As China exports far more goods to US than vice versa, Chinese retaliations already cover more US goods (85%) than US tariffs cover Chinese imports (50%). So as the ongoing trade war shifts from goods tariffs to non-tariff actions in services, China is likely to target US services. But China will not be the first to do so.

A few weeks ago, when Trump unleashed a tweet storm against Germany and the European Union (EU), German Chancellor Angela Merkel rightly pointed out that it is misleading to focus on goods trade, in which the US has deficit against the EU, when the US excels in services trade, in which it has a surplus against the EU. With other EU leaders, Merkel is backing a “digital tax” against US multinationals like Amazon, Facebook or Google, which have come under fire for shifting earnings around Europe to pay lower taxes.

Trump tariffs undermine U.S. high-margin services

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs have potential to undermine America’s most important competitive advantage in the postwar era – high-value, high-margin services, which range from the technology sector to big pharma.

Since 2001, US services surplus with China has increased nine-fold. A major beneficiary of the surplus is Houston, Texas. Last fall, Mayor Sylvester Turner led a Houston business delegation to China with energy execs, hospital administrators, physicians, medical researchers and entrepreneurs. The visit fostered many collaborative projects, including a medical center based on imported technology and consulting services from Houston.

Trump’s tariffs have potential to undermine America’s most important competitive advantage in the postwar era – high-value, high-margin services, which range from the technology sector to big pharma.

Much of US services trade surplus with China can be attributed to Chinese travelers’ spending on US business, medical treatment and education, as well as increasingly innovative Chinese companies spending on US licensing fees and royalties for intellectual property. Yet, in Texas, Trump’s tariffs are now endangering major projects that took years to build.

As collateral damage will spread, so will the costs. If US metropolitan centers will take severe hits, the stakes will be much higher with US states. Last year, California’s trade with China totaled $170 billion, covering electric cars, engines, auto parts and aluminum. “A trade war is stupid,” warns Governor Jerry Brown, and for a reason. Among the US states, California, which is already facing a $1.6 billion budget deficit, stands to suffer the greatest pain if Trump’s tariff wars worsen.

Yet, this could be only the beginning. If trade wars spill from goods to services, neither Silicon Valley nor Hollywood will remain immune.

Global growth no longer immune

The White House’s ultimate goal: First to shock and awe its trade adversaries, and then to negotiate the best terms for the US – America First.

By upping the stakes in its trade war, the Trump administration is endangering US services surpluses not just with China, but with its other “deficit targets.” Trump’s dream is to defeat China in the trade war and then use that “demonstration effect” to force others – EU, Canada and Mexico, Japan and South Korea – on their knees.

That’s the White House’s ultimate goal: First to shock and awe its trade adversaries, and then to negotiate the best terms for the US – America First.

However, the White House severely underestimates the resilience of the Chinese economy and its people. Moreover, US tariff wars against its partners in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific are not a matter of principle, just a matter of time.

This trade war will have no winners. Instead, expect an avalanche of defaults soon.

A shorter version of the commentary was published by China Daily on August 22, 2018.

About the Author
dan-steinbock-webDr. Dan Steinbock
 is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see
https://www.differencegroup.net/

Trading the Global Future

Trading the Global Future

By Dr. Dan Steinbock

PART I: Bad Timing

(This is the first of a three-part series.) 

In this commentary, Dr Dan Steinbock argues that Trump’s tariff wars take place in a very bad time, are based on bad policies and will have bad consequences. This is the first of a three-part series. Here the focus is on four controversial U.S. policymakers, the path to tariff wars, the doldrums of globalization, and the rising risks ahead. 

In less than two years, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. That is both a reflection of and a catalyst for the further erosion of globalisation.

Yet, these trade wars did not come out of the blue. The path to the tariff wars is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse or slow down, and the timing of the trade war could not be worse. It is taking place at a historical moment when global economic integration could further stagnate or even fall apart.

 

The Not-So-Fabulous Four

Today, Trump’s tariff wars are led by Peter Navarro, Director of the White House National Trade Council, and his ally and fellow Trump trade advisor Dan DiMicco, former CEO of the U.S. steel giant Nucor. They are supported by U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.

Until recently, the trade hawks in the White House had been contained by more mainstream policymakers, such as former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Director of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. After Tillerson lost his job and Cohn resigned, things changed. Cohn’s Goldman Sachs companion Mnuchin proved weaker, while Ross leaned on winners, regardless of the cause. As free-traders moved out, protectionists stepped in. 

The key ideas evolved from mercantilist economic doctrines, the Reagan era trade wars in the 1980s and more controversial moral hazards and financial dealings by Navarro and Ross, respectively. In the protectionist camp, the key players are Navarro and DiMicco, two vocal free trade critics, who have long been determined to prioritize steel at the expense of other U.S. industries.¹ Lighthizer is a Reagan era trade hawk who served as Deputy USTR in the ’80s, sees China as Japan 2.0 to be contained and would like to have the Republican Party become a party of tariffs as it once was.

Often called the “King of Bankruptcy,” Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross made his estimated $700 million in assets by buying bankrupt companies, especially in manufacturing and steel. A recent Forbes report indicates that allegations against Ross — which have sparked lawsuits, reimbursements and an SEC fine – come to more than $120 million: “If even half of the accusations are legitimate, the current United States secretary of commerce could rank among the biggest grifters in American history.”²

 

The Path to Trump’s Trade War(s)              

Only days after the summit, Trump signed trade measures that were almost bound to result in a trade war by spring 2018.

Historically, U.S. trade deficits stem from the 1970s, three decades prior to China’s rise. Moreover, the deficits are multilateral, not bilateral. They have prevailed more than four decades with Asia; first with Japan, then with the newly-industrialized Asian tigers, and most recently with China and multiple emerging Asian nations. At the same time, starting with Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, U.S.-China merchandise trade soared from $2 billion in 1979 to $579 billion in 2016 as China grew to become America’s second-largest merchandise trading partner, third-largest export market, and biggest source of imports. 

In the mid-1990s, the Clinton administration negotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In the early 2010s, the Obama administration touted – though failed to secure Congressional ratification for – the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On his inauguration day, Trump announced U.S. withdrawal from the TPP and pledged to renegotiate NAFTA. Following a year of tough campaign rhetoric against China, he began to walk the talk.

After their first summit at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017, President Trump and Xi Jinping announced a 100-day plan to improve strained trade ties and boost cooperation. As the Chinese side started to explore areas of reconciliation, the White House undermined its stated plan. Only days after the summit, Trump signed trade measures that were almost bound to result in a trade war by spring 2018.

In April 2018, the Trump administration introduced its first trade threats. In mid-June followed the details on its 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective July 6, while threatening levies on another $16 billion of imports. As the stakes have now soared to $50 billion, the US-Chinese trade war is entering a more serious phase.

The early impact of China’s tariffs on US exports is likely to prove greater than that of US tariffs on China’s exports because $50 billion represents 38% of US exports to China but only 10% of Chinese exports to the US (Figure 1).

 

Figure 1 Early Tariff War Hurts the US More than China Source: Data from Standard & Poor’s

 

In the US, the share of “globalists” – those committed to free trade and international engagement – has shrunk dramatically since the Cold War. Nevertheless, Trump’s methods are alienating not only US farmers, whose revenues have been penalized by the tariff wars, but also the powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In July, Chamber President Tom Donahue launched a high-profile campaign against Trump’s tariffs, arguing that “we should seek free and fair trade, but this is just not the way to do it.”3 Trump needs his constituencies to contain Democrats in the mid-term fall election.

The US tariff wars began bilaterally with China, but conflicts are becoming increasingly multilateral. As Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs against the EU, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently warned Trump not to unleash an all-out trade war. After all, the ultimate objective of the Trump administration is to target America’s deficit partners, including China, Mexico, and Japan. The proposed measures are just means to that final goal. In 2017, the US had the greatest trade deficit with China ($375bn), Mexico ($71bn), Japan ($69bn) and Germany ($64bn), followed by Vietnam, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, India, and South Korea (Figure 2).

 

 Figure 2 US Trade Deficit in 2017 ($ Billions)Source: US Census Bureau

 

The Trump administration seems to think that if it can “break” China’s trade resistance, then that will serve as a demonstration effect to America’s NAFTA partners and other allies in Europe and East Asia. It is a misjudgment that is about to backfire and prove very costly.

 

The Doldrums of Globalisation                   

At the peak of globalisation, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was often used as a barometer for international commodity trade.4 The index soared to a record high in May 2008 reaching 11,793 points. But as the financial crisis spread in the advanced West, the BDI plunged by 94 percent to 663 points. Fueled by massive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, it climbed to 4,661 in 2009. However, as stimulus policies expired, it bottomed out at 1043 in early 2011, amid the European sovereign debt crisis. During the first Trump year, the BDI has stagnated around 1,000 to 1,800; some 85 to 90 percent below its peak, despite soaring financial markets (Figure 3)

 

Figure 3 The Baltic Dry Index, 1986-2018

 

While the BDI can serve as a short hand for international trade, broader measures of global economic engagement offer equally dire visions. Typically, global economic integration is measured by world trade, investment, and migration. By the 1870s, capital and trade flows rapidly increased, driven by falling transport costs. However, this first wave of globalisation in the modern era was reversed by the retreat of the U.S. and Europe into nationalism and protectionism between 1914 and 1945. After World War II, trade barriers came down, and transport costs continued to fall. As foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade returned to the pre-1914 levels, globalisation was fueled by Western Europe and the rise of Japan. This second wave of globalisation benefited mainly the advanced economies.

At the peak of globalisation, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was often used as a barometer for international commodity trade. Typically, global economic integration is measured by world trade, investment, and migration.

After 1980 many developing countries broke into world markets for manufactured goods and services, while they were also able to attract foreign capital. This era of globalisation peaked between China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 and the global recession in 2008. During the global financial crisis, China and large emerging economies fueled the international economy, which was thus spared from a global depression. But as G20 cooperation has dimmed, so have global growth prospects.5

Stagnating world investment. Before the global crisis, world investment soared to almost $2 trillion. According to the UN, global FDI flows were projected to resume growth in 2017 and to surpass $1.8 trillion in 2018. In reality, global FDI flows fell   to $1.52 trillion last year.6 That is more than 15 percent below the pre-crisis peak. In the current landscape, the only bright spots are large emerging economies, but policy mistakes in U.S. rate hikes could dampen their projections as well.

Plunging world trade. According to the WTO, merchandise trade volume growth is expected to reach 4.4 percent in 2018, as measured by the average of exports and imports, falling few percentage points below the 2017 level. Moderation looms ahead. As the WTO sees it, “there are signs that escalating trade tensions may already be affecting business confidence and investment decisions, which could compromise the current outlook.”7 Indeed, world export volumes reached a plateau already in early 2015, as G20 economies introduced new protectionist trade measures at the quickest pace seen since the financial crisis.8 Since the current cyclical recovery is slowing, strong trade gains look less likely in the foreseeable future.

From geopolitical friction to migration crises. Since the advanced West subjected migration to greater control in the early 20th century, global migration—the third leg of globalization—has shrunk dramatically. Yet, the number of globally displaced people has surged. After the terrorist attacks in 2001, the subsequent U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, coupled with wars and persecution elsewhere in the Middle East and Africa, have driven more than 65 million people from their homes. This represents the greatest global forced displacement since 1945.9

The slump of global finance. Following the global financial crisis, there has been a dramatic fall in global finance as well: gross cross-border capital flows-annual flows of FDI, purchases of bonds and equities, lending and other investment-have shrunk by 65 percent in absolute terms, returning to the level of global flows as a share of GDP last seen in the early 2000s. The sharp contraction in gross cross-border lending and other investment flows explain half of the decline, and Eurozone banks are leading the retreat.10

 

Beware of rising risks

Global investment is likely to continue to linger at a level it first achieved a decade ago, while world trade could slump, which would effectively broaden secular stagnation in advanced economies and growth deceleration in emerging and developing economies.

As the IMF warned in a recent World Economic Outlook, the ongoing cyclical recovery in global growth prospects is likely to wind down in a year or two, which means rising risks loom on the global horizon thereafter.11

It is this dire state of global economic integration that is the backdrop of Trump’s trade war, which may serve as a further negative amplifier.12 In such a status quo, external growth drivers are desperately needed, and are precisely what Trump’s trade war has the potential to undermine.

Global investment is likely to continue to linger at a level it first achieved a decade ago, while world trade could slump, which would effectively broaden secular stagnation in advanced economies and growth deceleration in emerging and developing economies. In such circumstances, the downfall of finance may prevail, while migration crises and the surge of globally displaced people will remain at record highs, despite peacetime conditions.

Trump’s tariff wars have potential to undermine the elusive global economic recovery.

 

This commentary was released by Georgetown Journal of International Affairs on August 20, 2018.

Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks before signing ‘Section 232 Proclamations’ on steel and aluminum imports with (2nd L-R) Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro in Roosevelt Room the the White House March 8, 2018 in Washington, DC.

About the Author
dan-steinbock-webDr. Dan Steinbock
 is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see
https://www.differencegroup.net/

 

References

1. Steinbock, D. 2013. “The Quest to Demonize China.” China-US Focus, Aug 19.

2. See Alexander, D. 2018. “New Details About Wilbur Ross’Business Point To Pattern Of Grifting.” Forbes, August 7.

3. Reints, R. 2018. “The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Is Fighting Trump’s Tariffs with Facts.” Fortune, July 2.

4. Issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), is released daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. It is seen as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks and s a general shipping market bellwether.

5. On the waves of globalization (minus centuries of colonialism), see Globalization, Growth, and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy. World Bank 2002. For a discussion of the state of global economic integration, and the shift toward South-to-South globalization, see Steinbock, D. 2017. “The Great Shift of Globalization: From the Transatlantic Axis to China and Emerging Asia,” China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies (CQISS), 03:02, 193-226.

6. See World Investment Report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development between 2008 and 2017 (annual), and UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor.

7. “Trade Statistics and Outlook: Strong Trade Growth in 2018 Rests on Policy Choices,” WTO, Geneva, April 12, 2018.

8. See Global Trade Alert Report by the Centre for Economic Policy Research between 2008 and 2017 (annual).

9. See the Global Trends reports by the UN Refugee Agency UNHCR between 2008 and 2017 (annual).

10. McKinsey Global Institute. 2017. The New Dynamics of Financial Globalization. August, p. 11.  

11. The World Economic Outlook: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change, International Monetary Fund, April 2017.

12. Neither the zero-bound interest rate policies (ZIRP) nor rounds of quantitative easing (QE) have been adequate to rejuvenate maturing and aging economies. The Fed’s rate hikes could prove fleeting, along with efforts to ignite inflation, while the European Central Bank will have little time to tighten or exit from large-scale asset purchases. The Bank of England must cope with the collateral damage of the Brexit and the Bank of Japan has not been able to end Japan’s secular stagnation, despite massive monetary injections and sovereign debt that now exceeds 250 percent of the country’s GDP.

Will Trump’s Trade War Precipitate a Currency War?

Koper, Slovenia - March 07, 2015: This huge "China Shipping Line" container ship is unloading containers with goods from China, in port of Koper in Slovenia. Photo was taken 07.March 2015.

By Dr. Jack Rasmus

(3rd in a series on Trump Trade policy)

Last week, mid-July, Trump threatened $500 billion in tariffs on China imports, escalating his prior threat to impose $200 billion on China. He then threatened hundreds of billion in tariffs on world auto parts imports, targeting Europe. But Trump’s threats and announcements do not constitute a trade war. Threats and even announcements of tariffs are one thing; the actual implementation of tariffs another.  But even the current scope of tariff implementations do not yet represent a trade war. Bona fide trade wars occur when tariff fights spill over to currency devaluations and generate currency wars.

To date, only $34 billion in tariffs on China industrial imports to the US has been actually implemented, plus another $2-$3 billion in intermediate steel and aluminum products.  In response, China has so far imposed an equivalent $36 billion in tariffs on imported US agricultural goods, targeting US soybeans, port, cotton and other grains produced in Trump’s political base of the US Midwest agricultural belt.

Elsewhere around the globe, earlier in July Trump threatened to escalate a trade conflict with the European Union, threatening to impose $200 billion on Europe and global auto part imports to the US. But to date there’s only been US tariffs implemented on Europe steel and aluminum imports. And the response from Europe has been a mere $3 billion in counter tariffs on US imports.  Ditto for trade with Mexico-Canada. US steel-aluminum tariffs on imports from Mexico-Canada have elicited a token response of $15.8 billion in Mexican and Canadian tariffs on US imports.

Total actually implemented US import tariffs to date—mostly levied against China—amount to only $72 billion, or 2.3% of a total of $3.06 trillion imports into the US annually. US trading partners have responded measuredly in kind, with their own 2.3% in tariffs on US exports on the total $2.58 trillion US exports worldwide.  Tariffs of 2.3% hardly represent a tariff war, let alone a trade war. Bona fide trade wars are never limited to tariffs. Trade wars involve not only tariffs but also non-tariff barriers to trade. Even more important, bona fide trade wars occur when tariff spats escalate and precipitate currency devaluations.

Should Trump follow through with threats of $200-$500 billion more tariffs on China imports, the US and China will likely slip into a currency war as China allows its currency, the Yuan, to devalue further. And that devaluation will almost certainly quickly go global— given the current significant decline in currency exchange rates already taking place throughout various throughout key emerging market economies (Argentina, Turkey, India, etc.). Other emerging market economies will have no choice but to follow China’s devaluation lead.  Nor will advanced economies like Japan and Europe be immune from having to devalue, as they to offset Trump tariffs in order to maintain their share of global trade that Trump policies are clearly attacking.

Trump’s Dual Track Trade War

The longer the tariff conflict with China continues, the greater the likelihood or the current US-China tariff spat descending into a currency war.

Trump apparently believes he can control the response of US trading partners to his threats and intimidations, and that he can conclude token trade deals, if necessary, to avoid falling over the trade cliff of currency devaluations. While he might be able to backtrack and quickly close trade deals with NAFTA partners and Europe—just as he settled a quick, token deal with South Korea early this year—the settling of a quick trade deal with China may not prove so easy. And the longer the tariff conflict with China continues, and escalates, as appears likely, the greater the likelihood or the current US-China tariff spat descending into a currency war.

A Trump two track trade policy has been underway since early 2018.  One track is with US trading allies. Here Trump will prove flexible and eventually settle for minor adjustments in trade terms, just as he did with the South Korea trade pact earlier this year.  Trump will then exaggerate and misrepresent the dimensions of the deals with allies, selling it all as great achievements benefitting his domestic US political base and confirming his US ‘economic nationalism’ policy that proved so politically valuable to him in the 2016 elections.  Much of the trade war with allies is really about US domestic politics and the upcoming US November midterm elections.

 

US-Mexico Deal Imminent 

Unlike China, where trade negotiations are currently frozen and no discussions are underway, both Europe and Mexico in recent weeks have been signaling they are amenable to a quick deal with Trump if he will settle for relatively minor concessions. Mexico president elect, Lopez Obrador, sent his trade negotiator to Washington DC this past week to explore concessions with Trump. A deal was negotiated last spring by US and Mexican trade representatives but was subsequently scuttled by Trump. Trump introduced a new demand in US-Mexico negotiations that any trade deal would have to ‘sunset’ and be renegotiated every five years. Trump did not want a deal too early. Trump wants a deal closer to the US November elections so that he can tout it to his domestic political base as proof his ‘economic nationalism’ policy works. The current differences between the US and Mexican positions in negotiations currently are otherwise not significant; should Trump drop his sunset demand, which he will do when the timing for his domestic politics is appropriate—that is, just before or soon after the US midterm elections—a deal with Mexico (and thereafter similarly with Canada) will be concluded quickly. And according to US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, just last week, an agreement between the US and Mexico will soon be announced.

 

Hiatus in Trump ‘War of Words’ with Europe

The same Trump flexible approach was evident in the just announced ‘deal’ with European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, who also came to Washington this past week.  Juncker’s goal was to get Trump to back off his threats to impose tariffs on Europe auto part imports.  Not actual tariffs, in other words, but to get Trump to retract his threat to perhaps introduce them. Trump and Juncker then announced a ‘deal’.  The so-called deal is merely verbal and indicate objectives the parties, US and Europe, hope to maybe achieve, at some point undefined in the future. It was not actually a trade agreement.  Just a mutual statement they would negotiate toward a deal. Trump backtracked from his threat to impose tariffs on autos. In exchange, Juncker offered to buy more US soybeans and US natural gas at some point in the future.  In terms of actual tariffs, or any other ‘trade’ measure, the Trump-Juncker announcement was mostly a public relations stunt for both parties designed to placate their domestic critics.

The US trade war with Europe is just a war of words, as it has been thus far with NAFTA.  What exists in fact is just a couple billion dollars of actual tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by the US on Europe and a similar amount of token tariffs implemented by Europe on select US imports to Europe.  The so-called trade war with NAFTA and Europe is still phony. Not so the case, however, with China.  And while negotiations continue with NAFTA and Europe, no further discussions are underway with China and will likely not occur soon.

 

What the US Wants from China—And Won’t Get

Unlike NAFTA and Europe, a quick settlement with China is not in the works. The US wants concessions from China that it is not demanding from NAFTA, Europe and other allies.  The US wants concessions in three areas from China: more access to China markets by US banks and multinational corporations, including 51% and then 100% US corporate ownership of their operations there. Second, the US wants China to purchase at least $100 billion more in US goods, mostly from Midwest US agribusiness and manufacturing. Third, it is demanding stringent limits and reductions in China’s current policy requiring US nextgen technology transfer from US businesses operating in China.  What has the US defense and intelligence establishment especially worried is China plans to leapfrog the US in nextgen technologies like 5G wireless, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. These represent not only the source of industries of the future, but threaten a quantum leap in China military capabilities.   The US refers to the nextgen technologies as ‘intellectual property’ since they are fundamentally software based. But what the US really means is nextgen military-capable software intellectual property. 

Demanding stringent limits and reductions in China’s current policy requiring US nextgen technology transfer from US businesses operating in China

When negotiations opened with China this past spring, China cleverly offered major concessions to the US. It announced it would grant 51% ownership rights for US multinational corporations doing business in China, and signaled it could agree to 100% as well. That delighted US bankers and multinational corporations. Their representative on the US trade negotiating team, US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, publicly declared a deal with China was therefore imminent. China also signaled it could purchase $100 billion more a year in US agricultural products. But it would not budge on the tech transfer issue. A deal was close but was then upended by US defense-intelligence-war industries US negotiating faction. Through their friends in Congress, they aborted any prospective trade deal with China.  Trump then followed up by threatening to impose an additional $200 billion of tariffs on China in response to China matching US tariffs on China imports by implementing an equivalent $34 billion on US exports to China, especially targeting US soybeans, pork and other grains. And when China declared it would match the US further threat of another $200 billion in tariffs, Trump doubled down by threatening a further $500 billion on China imports. While Trump’s threats of more tariffs and intimidation tactics have proven successful eliciting the response he wants from Europe and NAFTA partners, it has not to date proved similarly effective with China. Nor will it likely.

While China will allow significant US corporate access to its markets, and will agree to purchase hundreds of billions more of US exports, especially agricultural, China shows no signs of bending on its technology development objectives.  And while US bankers, multinational corporations, and agribusiness-farmers appear willing to cut a trade deal on market access and US exports purchases, it appears that the US defense establishment (Pentagon, Intelligence agencies, defense contractors), together with its friends in Congress, will not allow a deal with China without major concessions by China on technology.

 

From Tariff Spats to Currency Wars

Trump believes his intimidation tactics—thus far proving successful with NAFTA and Europe—will work as well with China.  He believes he can close token deals quickly when he chooses with the former two, which is true. But he can’t do so similarly with China. And the longer the tariff spat with China drags on, and deteriorates, the more likely a US-China tariff war will escalate into a bona fide trade war involving currencies and US dollar-Yuan exchange rates. And that is the prospect US and global business interests are particularly worried about.

A currency war between the US and China will reverberate across the global economy that already shows signs of slowing and, in some key sectors, is already descending into recession.  Tariff spats involve two trading partners and may affect their mutual economies, but currency wars quickly spread across all economies in a chain-like contagion of devaluations.

A currency war between the US and China will reverberate across the global economy that already shows signs of slowing and, in some key sectors, is already descending into recession

This potential scenario is approaching, as Europe’s economy is slowing rapidly and tending toward stagnation once again. Japan is already in another recession.  A growing number of emerging market economies are contracting—the worst case scenarios being Argentina, now in a 5.8% economic contraction, but Brazil, South Africa, and others are continuing to slip further deeper into recession.  Turkey’s currency is now collapsing rapidly, a harbinger of real economic contraction on the near horizon. Meanwhile, India and other south Asian currencies and economies are also growing more unstable. In short, the global economy is growing more fragile in terms of both trade and production. A trade war involving currency instability between China and US will almost certainly tip the balance.

But Trump clearly believes China’s economy can be destabilized by the US trade offensive. That China has more to lose than the US, since it has benefitted from US trade more than the US has from China trade. But this is a naïve and simplistic analysis, typical of Trump and his advisors. Typical of a financial speculator mentality, Trump believes that so long as the US stock markets are doing well, the real economy is strong and can weather an intensification of a tariff war. For Trump, ‘tariffs are great’. Just raise them further to intimidate trading partners and force concessions from them to the benefit of US corporate interests and the economies of his domestic political US base.

China has already begun to ‘dig in’, however, in anticipation of a longer, protracted contest with the US over tariffs and their economics effects, and US demands to restrict China technology development. It has just announced another major fiscal-monetary stimulus to its economy this past week, in anticipation of slower growth from exports and trade with the US. A massive money injection to spur bank lending, tax cuts, and more government investment are planned to offset any export slowdown. It is also aggressively pursuing other trade deals with Europe and other economies to offset any decline in US trade.  China also has various measures it can employ in a Trump trade war escalation.  It can slow its purchase of US Treasury bonds. It can impose more non-tariff administrative barriers on US companies in China and those exporting to China. It can launch a boycott of US made goods among China consumers. These are likely measures of last resort, however. More likely is China may allow its currency, the Yuan, to devalue against the dollar—thus even offsetting any Trump tariff effects.  And ironically somewhat, the devaluation of China’s currency will be allowed to occur due to market forces, not any China official declaration of devaluation, since the US policy is already causing a devaluation of the Yuan.

The devaluation of China’s currency will be allowed to occur due to market forces, not any China official declaration of devaluation, since the US policy is already causing a devaluation of the Yuan

Trump’s trillion dollar annual US budget deficits have resulted in the US Federal Reserve central bank raising interest rates. The Fed must raise rates to finance Trump’s now estimated annual trillion dollar deficits for the next decade (caused by Trump’s $3 trillion in tax cuts and trillion dollar hikes in defense spending; with trillions more tax cuts and defense spending in the Congressional pipeline before year end 2018).

To pay for the multi-trillion dollar deficits, the US central bank, the Fed, is rapidly raising interest rates. Rising interest rates are driving up the value of the US dollar. That dollar appreciation in turn is causing an inverse decline in the value of emerging market economy currencies—and that includes China’s Yuan currency. The Yuan has devalued by 10% since the US tax cuts, deficits, and interest rate hikes in 2018. A seven percent Yuan devaluation in just the last three months.  The Yuan is now at the edge of its trading band at 6.8 to the dollar. Should it slip further, which is inevitable as US interest rates and the dollar continue to rise, a devaluing Yuan will set off a chain reaction of devaluations throughout the global economy—i.e. a currency war will have arrived. And as currencies devalue, Trump’s tariffs will have been offset, neutralized, negated.

Trump has declared ‘tariffs are great’. But Trump’s tariffs will have been negated in turn by a currency war set in motion by Trump’s own domestic fiscal and monetary policies that are causing the US dollar to rapidly appreciate worldwide. Trump is betting his intimidation approach can produce quick results before his tariff war precipitates a currency war and a severe global economic contraction. He is rolling the economic dice. He and his advisors clearly believe if it gets too serious, he can call off the tariff disputes with NAFTA, Europe and other trading allies quickly. He probably can, by backing off and getting token agreements which he’ll misrepresent and exaggerate. But the scenario for a quick resolution is quite different with China. It will not back off so easily.  The US-China dispute is far different than the US-trading allies (NAFTA, Europe) trade war of words.

 

Some Conclusions

Thus far, Trump’s trade wars with allies are phony. A NAFTA deal is imminent. A hiatus even in the trade war of words with Europe has been declared. And a further escalation with China has not yet occurred. Trump will announce token and fake deals with Mexico and Canada before the US November elections for purposes of touting the success of his ‘economic nationalism’ to his US domestic political base.  He will likely make more outrageous threats to China while perhaps trying to lure them back to negotiations with sweet-talk about China President, Xi, and possibilities of a deal . But China knows his game by now, and most likely will not negotiate until it sees what happens with the US November elections and the Mueller investigation of Trump.

At some point China and the US will negotiate. When they do, the key to whether a real trade war emerges thereafter—and that will only be with China—will depend whether Trump follows through with his threats to impose another $200 billion in tariffs on China imports to the US and whether the Pentagon and US defense industry lobby agrees to soften its demands on US technology transfer. US-China negotiations have already reached tacit agreement on China purchases of US exports and more US banker-corporate access to China markets in the future. How China will respond to more US tariffs and technology transfer is the crux of any US-China trade agreement—or trade war.

Trump and his advisors believe China cannot match tit-for-tat an equal $200 billion since it doesn’t import that magnitude of goods from the US. They think therefore they have the advantage in a dispute with China.  The US has a bigger ‘tariff stick’ than China has is the thinking. But that view is naïve. China has other measures, which it has signaled it is prepared to employ (without yet revealing the details). A devaluation of its currency would be high on its agenda of possible responses should Trump implement $200 billion more in tariffs. China’s currency is already pushing the edge of its band, at 6.8 to 6.9 to the dollar.  China thus far has been intervening in money markets to keep it there. All it needs to do, however, is stop intervening and let the Yuan devalue beyond the band, driven by market forces. It doesn’t even need to declare a devaluation. As the dollar rise, as it will continue to do so as the Fed raises interest rates further, the Yuan will devalue without China intervening to prevent it. (In other words, US policy is ultimately driving the Yuan devaluation). A Yuan devaluation will allow China to offset Trump tariff costs by an equivalent amount, thus negating Trump’s tariff actions. Contrary to Trump’s bombast, of ‘Tariffs Are Great’, he will find that tariff wars typically fail.

At that point the skirmish on tariffs between the US and China will morph into a currency war and signal that a true trade war will have begun. It will be a China-US trade war—with significant repercussions for other global currencies as a contagion effect of currency devaluations follow.  Global currency exchange rates will adjust downward even lower than they have to date already throughout emerging markets, as well as in Europe and Japan. The general competitive devaluations will sharply slow global trade and, in turn, global economic growth.

Jack Rasmus, July 31, 2018

About the Author 
Dr. Jack Rasmus is author of the book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’, Clarity Press, August 2017, and the forthcoming, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy from Reagan to Trump’, also by Clarity Press. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and tweets @drjackrasmus.

Cheers to a New Era: The Development of Singapore as an ASEAN Asset Management Hub

Singapore City, Singapore - June 1, 2014: View of Merlion statue, symbol of Singapore, with famous Marina Bay Sands hotel in the background.

Singapore is a great place for investors because of the country’s good legal and political environment. Like Luxembourg, it has a stable political and social environment and a strong economy and can regulate its investors in a responsive and experienced manner. However, in Asian countries, the differences are distinct economically – from the GDP per capita in Singapore being more than 50 times greater than some of its neighbouring states, to the vast size of Indonesia’s growing middle class and economic output, and the double digit growth of Philippines and Myanmar.

After news broke out that Singapore plans to unveil their country as an ASEAN Asset Management Hub, investors and entrepreneurs are rampant on starting their businesses in the country (in addition to their high ranking for ease of doing business).

Not only is Singapore among the top countries leading the world in information and communications technologies (ICT)1, but companies that would want to start their business in Singapore can also enjoy its economic strength.2  “Singapore is already very prominent in asset and wealth management across the region and continues to grow from strength to strength. Singapore has strong institutions to promote business in general and for asset & wealth management in particular, regulators are taking steps to further increase Singapore’s attractiveness – not only in ASEAN but globally,” said Armin Choksey, Asia Pacific Asset & Wealth Management Market Research Centre Leader of PwC Singapore.

For Deloitte Singapore Global Lead for Wealth Management Group, Mohit Mehrotra, Singapore is a great place for investors because of the country’s good legal and political environment. Like Luxembourg, it has a stable political and social environment and a strong economy and can regulate its investors in a responsive and experienced manner.

According to PwC, some European asset managers have been acquiring wealth managers as they seek to control distribution and the customer relationship.3 With the impact of Brexit as well, UK asset managers find a hard time in gaining and attracting European fund clients.

In a survey conducted by Ernst & Young Global Ltd. (EY) of 55 asset and wealth management groups, which are firms that manage in excess of €25 trillion globally, a little over half (51 percent) of respondents are working on or planning to establish entities in Europe, compared to 35 percent from the survey undertaken in 2016.4 While in the past 11 years alone, asset managers’ assets under management globally have more than doubled from $37.3 trillion in 2004 to $78.7 trillion in 2015.5

Singaporean asset managers raised this as a concern, with China being replaced by Europe. 64.91 percent of 57 fund managers that responded regarded political uncertainty in Europe as one of their top three concerns this year, another 45.61 percent saw weakening emerging markets as a major issue while 42.11 percent named rising tensions in voter sentiments and the impact on trade as another key risk. Slowing growth in China ranked fourth in the list of macro concerns at 40.35 percent compared to 85.1 percent citing China concerns in 2016.6

Singapore’s regulatory era causes a high level of stability in which supports growth; measures by the  authorities to ease ways of doing business, together with low tax rates, particularly attract clients.

Meanwhile, Singapore is increasingly leveraging on technology and innovation across the value chain. It can be between the usage of artificial intelligence and data analytics and identification of investment opportunities, and the utilisation of advisors and digital distribution channels to increase fund generation and automate back-end processes.

New wealth has translated into sizeable pools of assets under management (AUM) originating from institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), pension funds (PFs) and onshore wealth in Southeast Asia.

Singapore’s regulatory era causes a high level of stability in which supports growth; measures by the authorities to ease ways of doing business, together with low tax rates, particularly, attract clients.

“The country benefits from its capital account currency and open architecture that has contributed significantly to encourage local and international asset managers to base their operations here which means investors in Singapore get world-class products and services. A downside could be the relatively small local population. This can be countered by entering into product passporting/mobility arrangements like ASEAN Collective Investment Scheme (CIS) and Asia Region Funds Passport (ARFP), which will offer greater incentive for asset managers and funds to be based in Singapore and have their products sold in multiple territories. Luxembourg and Ireland are great examples of how passporting can benefit centres in this way,” Choksey said.

The ASEAN CIS framework (Initial CIS framework) was subsequently implemented in August 2014 and sought to provide a streamlined authorisation process for fund managers operating in a signatory jurisdiction to offer collective investment schemes approved in that jurisdiction to retail investors in other signatory jurisdictions.8 However, the revised CIS framework fosters cross-border fund distribution to shorten time in marketing for funds. Local investors can benefit from a wider choice of funds as product expertise is exported to different markets. This is considered an opportunity to consolidate management of funds and streamline operating models.9 

In the perspective of BNP Paribas Securities Services, the ASEAN CIS framework complements the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) model, allowing asset managers to access traditionally closed fund markets such as Malaysia and Thailand. However, it is imperative that the participating regulators continue to harmonise regulations between the various jurisdictions to reduce the barriers to entry to the ASEAN CIS framework.10

 


 

The key enhancements to the framework will11  enable a wider range of fund managers to participate in the framework by lowering the qualifying criterion to $US 350 million AUM from $US 500 million; shorten the time-to-market for the launch of funds, as the signatories have committed to reviewing within 21 calendar days a complete application from fund managers for the authorisation of a fund; and give participating fund managers more flexibility to delegate the investment management of a fund by increasing from 20 percent to 100 percent the proportion of the fund’s assets that can be sub-managed by a manager that is not regulated by a signatory.

The differences are distinct economically – from the GDP per capita in Singapore being more than 50 times greater than some of its neighbouring states, to the vast size of Indonesia’s growing middle class and economic output, and the double digit growth of Philippines and Myanmar.12

Singapore’s fund management industry’s total AUM rose seven percent to $2.74 trillion ($US 2.02 trillion) between January and December 2016 (see Figure 2 on previous page), driven by double-digit gains in alternative assets, according to findings from a survey by the city state’s central bank.13

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) consulted on proposed refinements to the licensing and business conduct requirements to facilitate the provision of digital advisory services in Singapore.14

Singapore must be able to adapt to an industry that has the opportunity to move center stage and get out of the usual banking and insurance industry.

To become a proposed asset management hub, Singapore must be able to adapt to an industry that has the opportunity to move center stage and get out of the usual banking and insurance industry. In line with Luxembourg’s position as the top asset management hub in the world, the asset management industry in Singapore should provide a strong pick-up in new private fund launches by local managers and investors.

“An investor’s risk tolerance and life stage are also key considerations when considering products and this can greatly impact the expected rate of return. And, as always, investors need to remember that past performance is no indication of future returns,” Choksey said.

Considering new asset management models would be a great way for Singapore to completely take over as the ASEAN region’s premiere asset management hub. Although external asset management (EAM) in itself is already seen as a business model, but is it enough to drive Singapore to the top of the region?

Among Asian countries, Singapore and Hong Kong are well-established financial hubs and thus, becoming the favored destination for EAM office establishment. The authorities in both centres endeavour to create favourable conditions or the wealth management industry. According to The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018, Singapore and Hong Kong also rank well for competitiveness, but with slight weaknesses in “provider capability” and also, in the case of Hong Kong, in “stability”. Wealth management providers better managed to stabilise their performance and profitability in the recent past, with cost income ratio down in the US, UK, Switzerland and Singapore (but rising in Hong Kong and Luxembourg).15  Mehrotra said that the strengths of Singapore when it comes to asset managing and the ease of doing business make the country even stronger.

“Both Luxembourg and Ireland are great examples of the benefits of passporting for a region and a generally large wealthy population. ASEAN and Asia-Pacific (APAC) have a growing wealth population, and currently do not have that level of integration and, as the regional market develops, we may see sector-specific hubs emerge,” Choksey said.

As mentioned in the Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018, when revenue margins across the leading wealth management centres are compared, Singapore, Hong Kong and Switzerland have shown margin increases since 2014, while Luxembourg, UK and the US have experienced a continuous decline. Luxembourg lost its leading position to Switzerland as the most productive yet most expensive centre (and also ranks below Singapore), while Hong Kong overtook the onshore-focused US, which became the lowest-ranked centre in terms of revenue margin.16

The focal point of a wealthy client is often his or her company and thus it has the highest priority. Quick and efficient access to the services of an investment bank – such as providing support in IPOs or bridging loans – is an important differentiation factor, if one wants to be and remain relevant for these clients.17

However, Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) and Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) are not ready to be welcomed by Singapore. Choksey mentioned that ESG and SRI investing across APAC is not as developed as it is in Western countries yet, so the opportunity is presented for Singapore to become a regional leader in this area. Investing trends from both institutional (mainly pension funds) and individual (mainly younger) investors indicate that ESG and SRI investing are gaining importance in the investment decision-making process so the demand is there and is growing.

“The Singapore Exchange has already taken some innovative steps with disclosure requirements for listed companies as have other regional exchanges. We think it is too early to state whether or not Singapore has a competitive advantage in this space yet but the opportunity is there to be seized,” he added.

PwC Singapore’s prediction, in a few years, is urbanisation creating a huge need for new infrastructure. They have estimated that close to $78 trillion will be spent globally on infrastructure from 2014 to 2025. And, by 2020, four distinct regional fund distribution blocks would have formed, allowing products to be sold pan-regionally, is looking broadly correct. It is anticipated that the four blocks would be: North Asia, South Asia, Latin America and Europe. Also, virtually, all major territories with fund distribution networks would have introduced regulation to better align the interests of the end consumer, distributor and asset manager is proving accurate.18

Singapore’s strong, forward-thinking policies together with existing infrastructure and talent are already in place to attract global and regional asset managers here to keep the industry humming.

According to Choksey, Singapore has the actual potential to become the most attractive asset and wealth management hub in the region; its strong, forward-thinking policies together with existing infrastructure and talent are already in place to attract global and regional asset managers here to keep the industry humming. This can be coupled with external policies like promoting fund passporting and entering into connect-style programmes with other asset and wealth management centres so that Singapore becomes the natural choice as a primary asset and wealth management hub in the region.

References

1. World Economic Forum, Global Information Technology Report 2016, http://reports.weforum.org/global – information – technology – report – 2016/

2. Maria Polevikova, Business Environment in Singapore, 2013, https://www.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/57443/Polevikova_Maria.pdf

3. PwC, Asset & Wealth Management Insights Asset Management 2020: Taking stock, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/asset – management / asset – management – insights/assets/am – insights – june – 2017.pdf

4. EY, EY Brexit stats for the wealth and asset management industry, http://www.ey.com/uk/en/newsroom/news – releases / 18 – 02 – 19 – ey – brexit – stats – for – the – wealth – and – asset – management – industry

5. PwC, Asset & Wealth Management: a new era of growth, disruption and opportunity, https://www.pwc.de/de/finanzdienstleistungen/asset – management / assets /studie – a – new – era – of – growth – disruption – and – opportunity.pdf

6. IMAS, IMAS 2017 Investment Managers’ Outlook Survey, http://www.imas.org.sg / public /media  / 2017 / 01 / 24 / 1193_Media_Release_20170109-3.pdf

7. Bank of New York Mellon, The UCITS of Asia? A closer look at the Asia Region Funds Passport (ARFP),  https://www.bnymellon.com/_global-assets/pdf/our-thinking/the-ucits-of-asia.pdf

8. Jek-Aun Long, Zixiang Sun, Benedict Tan, Gurjoth Kaur, Aik Kai Ng, Singapore: ASEAN CIS Framework enhancements, http://www.elexica.com/en/legal – topics/asset – management/050318 – singapore – asean – cis – framework – enhancements#content-main

9. http://securities.bnpparibas.com/insights/asean-cis-regulation-memo-2018.html

10. http://securities.bnpparibas.com/insights/asean – cis – regulation – memo – 2018.html

11. Allen & Gledhill, Singapore, Malaysian and Thai regulators sign MoU to enhance ASEAN CIS Framework to give retail investors wider access to fund managers, http://www.singaporelawwatch.sg/slw/attachments/119070/Capital%20Markets%201.PDF

12. Deloitte, Capturing the multi-trillion dollar asset management opportunity in Southeast Asia, https://www2.deloitte.com/th/en/pages/strategy-operations/articles/capturing-multi-trillion-dollar-asset.html

13. Synpulse, The Singapore Asset Management Industry: Building a Strong Foundation for Future Growth, https://www.synpulse.com / _ Resources / Persistent /  499ccf97 ee46e3f2ef895e72e00c37a9eb46a1ba / White – Paper _ Singapore – Asset – Management – Industry _ EN.pdf

14. Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), 2016 SINGAPORE ASSET MANAGEMENT SURVEY, http://www.mas.gov.sg/~/media/MAS/News%20and%20Publications/Surveys/Asset%20Management/2016%20AM%20Survey%20Report.pdf

15. The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ch/Documents/financial-services/ch-fs-1800914_Deloitte-wealth-managemnet-Ranking-2018.pdf

16. The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ch/Documents/financial-services/ch-fs-1800914_Deloitte-wealth-managemnet-Ranking-2018.pdf

17. Synpulse, The Singapore Asset Management Industry: Building a Strong Foundation for Future Growth, https://www.synpulse.com/_Resources/Persistent / 499ccf97ee46e3f2ef895e72e00c37a9eb46a1ba / White – Paper _ Singapore – Asset – Management – Industry _ EN.pdf

18. PwC, Asset & Wealth Management Insights Asset Management 2020: Taking stock,  https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/asset-management/asset – management – insights/assets/am – insights – june – 2017.pdf

The Return of the Feudal World?

ruins of a city with a crack in the street. 3d illustration concept

By John Hulsman and Boris Liedtke

In today’s post-industrial economy, it is evident that world politics is under radical restructuring. More precisely, as the authors argue, the model of nation-state has come under attack from below – in the form of a deteriorating level of trust by the people towards their elected or unelected representatives – as well as from above, by failing to provide appropriate answers to an ever more globalised world. With the nation-states’ apparent inability to withstand 21st century challenges, how then can our modern world move forward?

 

“The life of the nation is secure only when the nation is honest, truthful, and virtuous.”

– Frederick Douglass, Speech given on the 23rd anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation, 1885

In the spirit of the words of the great American abolitionist, we aim to be ruthlessly honest and truthful, even if this journey leads us directly to the great conundrum of our multipolar age: The nation-state simply isn’t working very well anymore — especially in terms of delivering effective policy governance, even as its staying power seems beyond dispute.

It is this paradox that explains much of what ails our present world, why “nothing seems to be working”. And indeed, the present record of the nation-state, undoubtedly the dominant present vehicle for global governance, seems to have missed the mark at every turn. Recently, there has been a collapse of nation-states in the developing world, creating governance black holes that have led to catastrophe in places like Somalia, Iraq, Syria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC).

These nation-states have failed in their basic function of being able to keep internal order, largely because politically their governance structures are not a representation of the political realities on the ground in each country, meaning they have come to be little more than geographical expressions, not nation-states imbued with the political power to effectively promote internal stability.

However, it is also in the supposedly well-governed developed world that the nation-state has showed its recent glaring inadequacies. Be it the Lehman Brothers Crisis (which unleashed the global Great Recession), the endless, endemic euro crisis of the European Mediterranean countries, or the calamity of America’s adventurism in Iraq replete with botched intelligence and botched post-war planning the nation-state seems to be showing its age, not delivering on its grandiose claims to facilitate both global governance and political and economic stability for its people.

We shall argue that the model of the nation-state has come under attack from below – in the form of a deteriorating level of trust by the people towards their elected or unelected representatives – as well as from above, by failing to provide appropriate answers to an ever more globalised world.

But if the nation-state does seem to have flatly failed lately at every turn, nor is it about to be replaced. Contrary to the fevered imaginings of European Federalists, the nation-state cannot simply be wished away as an annoying anachronism of a bygone age.

Rather, the dirty little secret at the heart of our new era is that all the rising powers — be they China, India, South Africa, Indonesia, or Brazil — are more sovereigntist, more nationalistic, more wedded to jealously preserving their national prerogatives than is even the United States, long the bane of post-national dreamers. Instead, it is the supposedly modern, post-nationalist European experiment that seems to be in terminal decline. Both intellectual defenders of the nation-state and its critics seem to be largely wrong at present. For as of now, we live in a bewildering world, where the nation-state is both not working very well and isn’t about to be replaced.

 

The Thirty Years’ War and the Crucible of the Peace of Westphalia

Historians and Political Scientists have long agreed that the Thirty Year’s war – ending in 1648 with the Peace of Westphalia – was the pivotal moment when the modern nation-state was born. The religious struggles of the previous 100 years or so – following the Reformation – were largely fuelled by the attempt of feudal Catholic Europe, with its religious world view, to adapt to the multiple challenges posed by the Renaissance.

The concept that “Man is the Measure of all things” was new, revolutionary thinking that manifested itself in the arts, politics, science and education. Despite attempts by the church and the political elite to retain its dominance in the feudal religious world through force, violence, and reconciliation culminating in the charnel house of the Thirty Years’ War – the end result was instead a new world order whereby human international interactions became governed no longer by the Church but increasingly by the Nation-State.

Replete with botched intelligence and botched post-war planning — the nation-state seems to be showing its age, not delivering on its grandiose claims to facilitate both global governance and political and economic stability for its people.

Before this development, the Western feudal world lacked the technology, communications, and structure to allow the implementation and projection of power and state control much beyond the immediate reach of the local nobleman, i.e a day’s travel on a horse was the limit for effective “state” control. The population lived locally with the church being the only supra-national institution to deal with the few supra-national topics of its age. Yet the Renaissance and the resulting advances in technology and organisations allowed for state control to be expanded far beyond a day’s travel. Times had changed and the old structure of the Western world had come under pressure.

This dramatic change evolved out of the desperate attempt of the Peace of Westphalia to see to it that nothing like the Thirty Years’ War was ever to happen again. It is hard to adequately describe what a calamity the war was for the people of Central Europe, and especially Germans nestled in the Holy Roman Empire. It amounts to one of the bloodiest conflicts in all of human history, with an estimated eight million casualties of its ceaseless slaughter.

Overall, depletion of the local German populations typically ranged from a decrease of 25–40%, underscoring what a staggering calamity the war amounted to. Given the many great powers that joined the fray as the war proceeded (Sweden, Spain, France, Austria), in many ways the Thirty Years’ War amounts to the first true world war of the modern era. And just as was true following the carnage in 1918 and 1945, in 1648 diplomats assembled, determined to prevent such a disaster from happening again.

The war’s genesis began as the staunchly Catholic Ferdinand II, the newly crowned Holy Roman Emperor, tried to impose Catholic conformity on his largely Protestant northern German princes, who had long enjoyed the freedom to govern their own territories based on their different religious views. This attempt to re-assert religious conformity was ultimately quashed.

The Peace of Westphalia recognised this cardinal error. It changed the basic relationship between rulers and subjects. Up until now in the feudal world, people tended to have overlapping (and often competing) political and religious allegiances and loyalties.

The basic European feudal structure saw supranational problems dominated by (and managed by) the Church. Its other salient feature was the great relative power of local princes, who in this fragmented age were largely left to their own devices by any nominal king above them. Think of the powerful, largely autonomous Dukes of Normandy (such as William the Conqueror) and their relationship with their only nominal overlords, the Kings of France, and you will get the point. 

The Peace of Westphalia recognised this cardinal error. It changed the basic relationship between rulers and subjects. Up until now in the feudal world, people tended to have overlapping (and often competing) political and religious allegiances and loyalties.

However, changes in technology and human philosophy made the alterations to the nation-state system in the Western world not only possible, but necessary. After the acceptance of Westphalia, this system dramatically changed, as far more local uniformity (compared to any overarching power in Rome) became the norm, as the local princes decided on the religious and political tenor of those they governed. Protestant princes in the Holy Roman Empire came over time to exercise primary control over their charges, and to set the religious and political tone for their fiefdoms (not the Holy Roman Emperor).

If the Princes were Protestant, their states were thought by all to be so as well (and vice versa for Catholics). Other Catholic and Protestant princes never again to such a large extent attempted to interfere with the domestic internal workings of another state, in an effort to avoid a further cataclysmic war; the concept of state sovereignty had been born. Allegiances in the Holy Roman Empire were no longer decided by a mix of the supra-national centre in Rome, and by the many local German traditions of the empire either, as had been the case up until 1618.

Instead, while there was less uniformity at the supranational level, as the success of Protestantism led to the diminution in the power of the Vatican, there was far more uniformity at the local level. Nationalism emerged with the victory of the regional princes, just as supranationalism and localism waned. Our modern state system had been born, with the nation-state in the driver’s seat.

Countries and the relationship among them governed the world in the next 350 years. The world started to increasingly function along national borders with national taxes, national laws, national conscriptions, national education, languages largely along national geographies, national governments, national elections, and national representations in multi-national organisations. Colonisation and imperialism ensured that by the early 19th century pretty much every inhabitable spot on the Earth and every human being belonged to a nation and frequently identified with it.

People were born with a national passport, attended national education that formed their opinion, engaged in national military service where they fought other nations, attended nationally-funded Universities, paid nationally-imposed taxes and adhered to national laws until they passed away. Even in death, the nation-state was inescapable through the national process of death certification and taxes.

The institution of the nation-state served humanity well throughout these 350 years. The increasing living expectancy, the possibility by billions to enjoy leisure time instead of fear (due to increasing internal domestic political stability), the economic and population growth, the advancement of knowledge and science, and the incredible output of old and new forms of art all make a testimony to the strength of the world order birthed at Westphalia. Life was certainly no longer “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish or short”.

At the end of this period, following the triumph of nationalist America over the supranational Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), there was such confidence in the nation-state that it inspired utopian-based thinking that humanity might have reached the end of history – “the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

 

The nation-state’s zenith has passed

However, mankind’s political, scientific or technological progress “operates on the principle of escalation. Technology solves problems but it also gives rise to new ones. The more technology we have at our disposal, the more technology we need to deal with the consequences. We invent ever more sophisticated techniques of food production, only to follow up with ways to contain overpopulation… Just as one can plot man’s scientific evolution as linear progress, one can explain it as a series of emergency measures to deal with the disastrous consequences of the previous big invention.”

The nation-state solved many problems that the old world order was incapable of dealing with – following the Thirty Years’ War there was never again a major religious war in Europe – but in doing so created new ones.

The same thought applied here to science and technology can and should be applied more broadly. The success of the nation-state has given rise to new challenges for which the nation-state structure can no longer provide acceptable answers. As a result, we must conclude that “Modern history condemns us to a permanent rat race against the consequences of our own creativity. We progress but only toward an ever-larger need for progress. To stop that progress is ultimately to doom humanity.”

The thought, which the architect Reinier de Graaf so eloquently applied to technology, must equally apply to the international political sciences that govern our world order. The nation-state solved many problems that the old world order was incapable of dealing with — following the Thirty Years’ War there was never again a major religious war in Europe — but in doing so created new ones.

The success of the nation-state has inevitably led to supranational problems, which it is simply not very well equipped to solve. National conflicts that have become global world wars need to be governed by international alliances. Commerce creating incredible wealth for nations encompassing the entire globe have to be dealt with through trade agreements and world organisations composed by nations.

Unprecedented travel and migration have to be governed by international civil conventions and universal declarations made by nations. National economies allowing mass consumption is causing industrial pollution that threatens our global environment which in turn have to be dealt with through climate agreements negotiated and signed by representatives of nations. However, these global solutions based on nations’ interactions are increasingly hijacked by more myopic national state self-interests, thus failing to provide long-term sustainable solutions.

Challenges to the nation-state then, largely emanate from its own historical success. Advances in technology, made possible often by the nation-state itself, through the 20th century and into our present day through radio, television and later computer technology – and in particular the internet – has brought an unparalleled transparency.

For our discussion, the most important implications of this transparency are twofold. Firstly, transparency has made it clear to all the differing living standards of the world. Secondly the human fallibility and foibles of our elected or unelected political elite are on display as never before.

The former has had and will continue to have wide ranging global implications. Specifically, this has already contributed to West’s victory in the Cold War (no one wanted to live in East Germany as opposed to Swinging London) three decades ago and is certainly a big factor behind the present immigration pressure which the U.S.A. as well as Europe and parts of Asia are experiencing. It is unsurprising that a newly-awakened rest of the world wants to personally share in the paradise that is the successful developed world.

The fact that people in Syria, Mexico, parts of China, and the rest of the underdeveloped world can obtain a direct glimpse of the consumer boom of the Western world or coastal China via the small screens of their internet-connected phones or simply via TV is no longer unknowable. Pandora’s box is open – for good and bad – and people in economically-challenged regions are longing to reach the Nirvana they observe on their little screens.

Modern transportation technology has basically removed the “literal” barrier of entry that geography once posed. Planes, cars, ships, etc. have made it theoretically affordable for even the poorest human being to emigrate. It is only the administrative, physical, and commercial barriers erected by the nation-state – frequently using geography in its defence (desert between Mexico and U.S.A.; the Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa) – that holds back this form of globalised immigration. Yet there is no solution or end in sight of the people from poor regions desiring a better life through immigration.

So the nation-state’s erected barriers will continue to come under real and philosophical pressure. The question has to be asked: “What right does one human or society have to block and hinder the free and peaceful movement of another through this world?” There only is an affirmative answer given the existence of the nation-state, which somehow has established this right through the creation of artificial borders based on historical events. Remove the nation-state from the equation and the answer becomes simple – “None”.

However, the transparency provided by technology has had equally far-reaching implications in the developed world going far deeper than just an issue of foreign immigration. With the use of radio by the political elite – politics became more accessible to the masses. The 1908 U.S. presidential race between Republican William Howard Taft and Democrat William Jennings Bryan marked the first time that recorded speeches were used to expand the speaker’s audience to those not in attendance. Woodrow Wilson was the first president who felt compelled to hold a presidential press conference in 1913.

In those countries where the media was less under the influence of the political elite, it soon developed into a hunt for human “gossip” and less a technology used for political debate.

President Warren Harding followed, becoming the first president to deliver a speech broadcast by radio. FDR perfected the use of this medium during his 30 evening radio addresses between 1933 and 1944 which became know as the Fireside Chats, a great political achievement which welded the American people to his reform programmes, come thick and thin. After the war, Harry Truman delivered the first oval office TV address and President Eisenhower used the same format to inform the people about his decision to send troops to enforce school desegregation.

In 1960, CBS organised the first TV presidential election debate, which many credited as a turning point in favour of the young dashing looking John Kennedy against a tired-looking make-up-less Richard Nixon. Finally, the entertainment value of the Trump period in the White House would certainly be substantially diminished without his many “tweets” to the masses, even though the information value might be suspect. Through voice, picture, and later internet, the nation-state’s representatives appeared ever more accessible to the U.S. electorate.

The U.S.A. is perhaps the most prominent user of this medium of enhanced political communication but other countries saw similar developments. The BBC and its founding father – John Reith – finally convinced King George V in 1932 regarding the necessity to hold a Christmas message via radio to his subjects around the world. The use of this technology was certainly not limited to liberal free societies and so one of the most influential film directors and producers of history – Leni Riefenstahl – perfect the use of the visual documentary in her masterpieces for the Nazis, Triumph of the Will and Olympia.

All this meant that the average person felt closer to their leaders of the nation-state than ever before. They started to see them – warts and all – as more and more human. Their mistakes and errors became known, documented and stored for future use. Leaders of nation-states became first fallible in the eyes of their electorate than increasingly ridiculed. In those countries where the media was less under the influence of the political elite, it soon developed into a hunt for human “gossip” and less a technology used for political debate.

The paparazzis were let loose on the political elite in the name of the fourth estate. As the available media outlets multiplied and polarised alongside the prevailing views of their specific audience, they started to loose their journalistic objectivity and was increasingly driven towards a short-term sensationalism. Youtube uploads and their followers became so numerous that many adjusted their content, based on the populism of “likes,” catering for specific desires and views. It was only a matter of “Google-ing” and “following” them, and everyone could find proof and arguments backing their own view about the leaders of the nation-state.

Preconceived ideas where strengthened and backed-up not by objectivity and researched facts but by selective sourcing of interpretation and subjectivity – the birth of “fake news”. In democracies, subjects increasingly found the “facts” they wanted and projected these onto their leaders, which in turn fed their image, which they felt provided the strongest backing to achieve electoral victory in the next contest.

The resulting cynicism between the leaders of the nation-state and the population was inevitable and is perhaps best summarised by a number of recent quotes from the leaders of the European people:

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” – on Greece’s economic meltdown, 2011

“If it’s a Yes, we will say ‘on we go’, and if it’s a No, we will say ‘we continue.’” – on French referendum over EU constitution

“We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.” – On Eurozone economic policy and democracy

However with every lie, with every cynical comment, as well as with every sexual affair and continuous degrading attitude towards the female electorate (who comprise more than 50% of the voting population), the people increasingly rejected their political establishment. The unthinkable started to happen in democracies of the West. A sexual predator and real estate tycoon won the U.S. presidency with a slogan you can fit on a hat, “America First”. A lesbian, Investment Banker became the leader of the opposition in the German Bundestag, representing a party that opposes same-sex marriages and argues for the protection of the national rights of the working class along lines reminiscent of German politics of the 1930s. The entire French political elite and establishment – not just the presidency – was wiped out in just under two years by a young investment banker with virtually no public office experience.

The contradictions are glaring and only imaginable in a world where “fake news” has replaced basic objectivity. In an ever-fragmenting European political environment, Spain and Italy fail to deliver again and again through elections the political stability that the nation state would need at a time to tackle its global challenges. These political changes are cataclysmic. The temporary democratic victors of this disillusionment of the people in its political elite – the populists –have one thing in common – they are not politicians but political outsiders and feed on this image.

Perhaps driven by economic slowdown and certainly fired on by a sensational press, the people are fed up with their traditional political leaders. The more these outsiders discredit the political institutions of the nation-state through which they obtained power by comments and outrageous behaviour and claims – the more sensational they become for the press as a precious tool for higher publicity and internet “hits”. A self-feeding frenzy between new political elite, media and the people has been initiated and is starting to devour the structure of the very nation-state to which the necessity of a free press was so necessary in the past.

Let us dispel all delusional hope that this new non-political elite is somehow better equipped to deal with the challenges to the nation-state or – even less so – our global threats, than the previous established elite. It is preposterous to imagine that investment bankers, traders and real estate tycoons, all political novices, are better suited for solving our problems than anybody else. The most likely outcome – which we can also see on the historic horizon of the future – is an even broader disillusionment by the electorate, followed by an even more radical replacement of the old and new political elite. More sensationalism, more outrageous claims, and more radicalisation made acceptable by fake news will drive the nation-state into the abyss.

 

The success of the Nation-State destroys itself

In the seed of the success of the nation-state lies its severest challenge to the very institution itself. The success story of the nation-state was to create a globalised world in which prosperity for many improved dramatically. However, from at least the middle of the 19th century, nations created issues and challenges for humanity, which are no longer national but global. A look at today’s world reflects this. Those risks to humanity that are hardest to solve are no longer national but require global responses. Military conflicts are no longer clear-cut wars between countries trying to eliminate the enemies’ national armed forces and occupying the enemies’ territory and capital. Military wherewithal in the shape of nuclear weapons is no longer just a threat to the local population in war zones but is a threat to the survival of humanity itself.

Pollution is no longer just threatening the national rivers or forests but is causing weather patterns to change and water levels to rise impacting emerging market economies based in the Middle of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean as well as in the rest of the world. Religious differences are no longer just impacting the border between two countries but engulfing the entire world in a struggle for a different Weltanschauung. Diseases are no longer a local or even a national or regional threat but via world travel have become a global concern.

The success story of the nation-state was to create a globalised world in which prosperity for many improved dramatically. However, from at least the middle of the 19th century, nations created issues and challenges for humanity, which are no longer national but global.

Any look at the major headlines in the past few years confirms this. For all its power to win the war in Iraq against Saddam Hussein largely on its own, the U.S. (by far the strongest nation in the world) failed miserably to win the peace without local Iraqi buy-in. The Lehman Brothers crisis painfully illustrated that national regulators were not up to understanding the global implications of those they regulated. The U.S. Federal Reserve is constituted to deal with American (that is, national) inflation and unemployment rates, even as the dollar’s supranational dominance makes their decisions possess a truly and unthought-of global significance. Increasingly the nation-state is coming to its limit to find adequate responses to these global challenges.

In fact, the very foundation of national currencies and payment methods is being called into question by globalised capital markets which suddenly – through the use of new technology – experiment with global non-national currencies in the form of Bitcoin and other encrypted electronic decentralised currencies. The cycle is always the same – the nation-states’ success in creating global trade leads to global capital flows, which in turn is leading towards global currencies undermining the function of the nation-state and its central banks to issue, control and regulate its finances in its nation-state currency.

Humanity is facing increasingly global challenges for which the concept of the nation-state is ill equipped to provide solutions even via existing multi-national institutions. These challenges are as broad as religious confrontation, global terrorism, increasing number of countries with nuclear capability to destroy humanity, global pollution, international immigration, financial inequality in the West caused by an increasingly global labour market, and global health threats. While facing this challenge from above, the nation-state is equally being threatened from within or from below with a rejection by its people of its political ruling class.

 

The real problem

But while the nation-state is being challenged in supranational policy terms by these global threats, as a result of the inability to address these challenges, the frustrated population of the the West has chosen to increasingly reject multi-national institutions (see Brexit) and to slowly turn towards nationalism as it feels it has lost democratic control of the decision-making process. It is the worst of all worlds; as problems become more transnational in nature, unelected, supranational institutions are increasingly reviled as anti-democratic, arrogant, and wildly unsuccessful.

The cycle is always the same – the nation-states’ success to create global trade leads to global capital flows, which in turn is leading towards global currencies undermining the function of the nation-state and its central banks to issue, control and regulate its finances in its nation-state currency.

It is this nexus that further explains the rise of populism throughout Europe on the left and right (Golden Dawn in Greece, Podemos in Spain, Five Star Movement in Italy, The Front National in France, UKIP in the UK, and the AfD in Germany).  It would seem that what is needed is nothing less than a new world system, supplanting the failing Westphalian order, that combines political legitimacy at the national and local levels, with the ability to master the many supranational problems of today. Only a new global order – and a new ideology supporting it – can help us find solutions for global challenges. This global order cannot be based on the discredited nation-state institutions, which the very populations are rejecting so forcefully.

 

Back to the future — The new feudalism

Ironically, the model to solve the many problems evident at the dawn of today’s multipolar age – to master the increasing limitations of the nation-state that have been so glaringly exposed – is to go back to the future, to revisit the very feudal age that pre-dated Westphalia.

For what is called for is more coherent and effective supranational structures at the top, in line with the old primacy of the feudal church. For example, in this case a more effective G20 is necessary to deal with the many trans-national aspects of the global financial and economic systems. A global but decentralised currency regulated outside the sphere of any particular nation-state is needed.

In Asia, the United States is no longer a sufficient force (for all its power) to manage and hedge against the rise of China. Instead, increasing the role and power to influence nation-states through the Quadrilateral grouping of the U.S., Australia, Japan, and India makes a great deal more sense. A Europe with a Euro-zone finance minister and a mutualisation of common debt (from now on, though not for what has been run up before) would tackle the ongoing challenges to the financial stability of the people of the continent. European nation states need to agree to follow the same (rather stringent) fiscal policies to turn the euro-zone core into a true supranational community. The nation-state has to give up sovereignty to deal with the success it has created.

As this shopping list for increasingly effective supranational structures makes clear we are agnostic about the ways to achieve this; in some cases it will be inter-governmental (between nation-states), in others like the euro-zone, the supranational institution will take on a life of their own. While in challenges that threaten the very survival of humanity and human civilisation on our globe – such as nuclear war, the environment as well as certain economic and trade aspects – the only way forward is for nation-states to give up control and pass sovereignty over these issues to global institutions that function above and beyond the nation-state. But in any event, the goal is to pragmatically go back to the pre-Westphalian era, where more unified and effective supra-national institutions existed to mange trans-national problems.

At the same time, even in this more feudal world, the nation-state is not going anywhere; for many people cleave to it precisely because they still feel strong allegiances to their countries, and crucially feel they have some democratic and practical control over their outcomes. Nation-states will continue to have a dominant military role, play a major role in macro-economics, and be the dominant force securing their own internal security. But over time, the nation-state will do less, but by concentrating on these key functions, it will also do it better.

Crucially at the bottom of the global governance tree, localism — as was true during the feudal area — will also come into its own again. In line with Thomas Jefferson’s brilliant insight, problems should always be solved at the lowest possible level, precisely because it is closest to the people itself, and means the political and democratic legitimacy of policy solutions can be secured. As American Jeffersonians so well understood, by diffusing power you paradoxically can magnify it and guarantee its legitimacy.

So everything from education issues, to policing, to infrastructure, should be primarily managed at this local level. Further, as the feudal world well knew, it is here that people feel most connected to decision-makers; we may not personally know the president but we do know the Head of the School Board and can heap all sorts of direct social pressure on him if he sends the kids to school in a blizzard. This accountability, which is exactly what populists are rightly bemoaning, has been lost in the world of the nation-state. A feudal emphasis on localism can be the well-spring for a more legitimate, more broadly acceptable system of government.

There is little doubt that after over 360 years, the old Westphalian system, dominated by the nation-state, is beginning to show its age. The irony is that the true antidote to what ails it – going back to the future and resurrecting feudal elements of the pre-Westphalian world by buttressing both supranational and local responses to today’s problems – can be the very ancient answer that moves the modern world forward.   

About the Authors

Dr John C. Hulsman is President and Managing Partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political-risk consulting firm. His new book, To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk, was published by Princeton University Press in April and is available on Amazon. He lives in Milan, Italy.

Dr Boris N. Liedtke is the Distinguished Executive Fellow at INSEAD Emerging Markets Institute and has over twenty years experience in the financial sector. He was the CEO of the largest bank by assets in Luxemburg and board member for Operations at the largest German fund manager. He is author of numerous articles on finance and trade as well as having received his PhD from the London School of Economics for the publication of Embracing a Dictatorship by MacMillan.

Boosting the Philippine Economy through Sustainable Tourism

By Fernando Martin Roxas, John Paolo Rivera, and Eylla Laire Gutierrez

Sustainability has become a concern in the travel and tourism industry. Stakeholders need to fully understand the issues, identify the root causes of the problem, and create interventions that will involve multiple sectors. However, understanding how sustainable tourism works is complex due to the compounded issues persisting. Hence, we use the systems thinking approach because of its ability to identify the underlying structures that influence sustainable tourism development.

 

Applying Systems Thinking to Sustainable Tourism

More than an industry, tourism is considered a system characterised by complex relationships among interacting actors, stakeholders, environments, as well as the actions done in the past and in the present, and future trends. This includes factors such as government policies, economic competition, and local community participation, among others. Thus, tourism is best understood using a Systems Thinking (ST) approach. By providing a systemic and holistic view of tourism, ST shows how the industry relates with other systems in relation to the whole. Through this approach, the nodes at which intervention is needed, the modes, and the actors to be involved in an intervention are properly identified.

Tourism has emerged as a critical sector generating economic growth and development across countries in the world. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), in 2017, tourism accounted for about 10.4% (USD 8 trillion) of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 5% (USD 1 trillion) of total investments, 7% (USD 1.5 trillion) of the world’s exports, and 1 in 10 jobs (313 million jobs) in the global economy. Also, in 2017, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer reported that international tourist arrivals increased by 7%, which is expected to continue in 2018 at a rate of 4% to 5%. To support this momentum, efforts and initiatives have been made to pursue sustainable tourism. Sustainable tourism here is understood as the triple bottom line framework (i.e., people, planet, profit) defined as the synergy between and among the social, environmental, and economic facets of tourism. This requires concerted and cooperative efforts among stakeholders in the industry.

The global trend is mirrored by the Philippine experience. According to the Department of Tourism (DOT), there was an 11% increase in foreign tourist arrivals in 2017 (i.e., 6.6 million arrivals in 2017 from 5.97 million in 2016). Economically, tourism contributed 21.1% (USD 66.3 billion) to GDP, 2.4% (USD 1.9 billion) to total investments, 8% (USD 7.5 billion) to total exports, and 19.2% (7.8 million jobs) to total employment, as per the 2017 report from the WTTC. Tourist arrivals comprising the said figures were mainly from the Republic of Korea, the People’s Republic of China, the United States of America, Japan, and Australia. The DOT deemed this as a significant milestone despite numerous political controversies, natural calamities, security concerns, and travel advisories that affected the industry in 2017. The DOT is optimistic of a sustained increasing trend given an expanded marketing plan that will promote new and underrated destinations, improved quality of tourism products and services, and enhanced human resource capacity.

 

Causal Relationships Among Tourism Stakeholders

ST approach utilises causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that illustrate the cause-effect relationships among components of the system. Some of these components are considered critical drivers that indicate a threshold wherein the system can experience significant or irreversible changes. See Figure 1 for a full CLD illustrating how sustainable tourism works.

In the context of sustainability-challenged destinations, we can see from Figure 1 that the growth of the travel and tourism industry, say ecotourism, will foster the establishment of profitable businesses that can create local jobs, thereby providing livelihood to communities. This will serve as an incentive for community members to exercise conservation and engage in sustainable practices, further driving ecotourism (see R1).

When local businesses become profitable, they will have the capacity to invest in the training of their employees. Consequently, this will improve the quality of their services, which will be reflected in the enhanced satisfaction of tourists that will entice more tourists to visit (see R2). However, the increase in the number of tourists in the destination can lead to economic development at the expense of sustainability and limits to growth.

Increased tourist arrivals can create environmental stress that will threaten a destination’s sustainability and environmental integrity (see B1). In the same manner, the booming industry in ecotourism destinations will lead to in-migration where individuals seeking employment and profit opportunities move into the destination. This will result to increased local population, which then again leads to increased environmental stress (see B2). The influx of individuals on an ecotourism destination, employment, and business opportunities raise concerns regarding carrying capacity (see B6). Carrying capacity covers both the maximum number of tourists at any time and the activities they engage in, such as nightly parties by the beach, business enterprises built along the shoreline and waterways, destructive water sport activities, among others.

The DOT is optimistic of a sustained increasing trend given an expanded marketing plan that will promote new and underrated destinations, improved quality of tourism products and services, and enhanced human resource capacity.

While the presence of businesses and local jobs become essential to create more economic opportunities, the situation is at risk for elite-capture, wherein wealthier members of the community monopolise profit-generating features of a destination. Without proper regulation, this will lead to destructive commercialism (see B3). Fostering community ownership where local community members take initiative in practicing conservation may reduce elite capture (see B5). The combination of crass commercialism and weak community leadership thus threatens sustainability. It becomes problematic when big businesses dictate the destination’s development path.

Identified threats to sustainability may be mitigated through proper interventions. It is therefore important to set up capacity management (see B6), and community governance (see B5) before a destination hit sustainability thresholds. Likewise, environmental stress may be addressed through capacity management where both the public and private sector collaborate in regulating and managing ecotourism destinations.

 

Sustainable Tourism Generates Economic Activities

We provide empirical evidence for our hypothesis that tourism is good for the Philippine economy. Using Philippine tourism data sourced from the World Data Atlas (from 2000 to 2017), we empirically establish the relationship among the following constructs – tourism performance (measured by tourism contribution to Gross Domestic Product [GDP]); tourism employment (measured by the total number of jobs created by the tourism industry); poverty incidence (measured by the proportion of the population with per capita income less than the per capita poverty threshold); inequality in income distribution (measured by the Gini coefficient). We constructed a simple correlation matrix, as seen from Table 1; and we estimated simple regressions, as seen from Figure 2, indicating the following findings, all of which are statistically significant:

The booming industry in ecotourism destinations will lead to in-migration where individuals seeking employment and profit opportunities move into the destination.

There is a positive relationship between tourism performance and tourism employment (i.e., the growth in tourism creates more job opportunities);

There is a negative relationship between tourism performance and poverty incidence (i.e., the growth in tourism boosts poverty alleviation);

There is a negative relationship between tourism employment and poverty incidence (i.e, the creation of jobs in tourism can reduce poverty);

There is a negative relationship between tourism performance and income distribution (i.e, with Gini coefficient as measure of income distribution, growth in tourism improves income distribution due to the creation of jobs and income-earning opportunities)

There is a negative relationship between tourism employment and income distribution (i.e, with Gini coefficient as measure of income distribution, growth in tourism employment improves income distribution due to income-earning opportunities for the local communities)

These empirical findings are consistent with the CLD presented in Figure 1. Undeniably, tourism has the capacity to improve the lives of the people taking part in its growth. It has become one of the country’s biggest employers. Unlike manufacturing, tourism can provide employment to a wide variety of educational preparation, skill levels or formal training. Tourism can match the revenue potential of Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW) remittances without a single Filipino having to leave the country to look for jobs. By its very nature, tourism is often labour intensive, needing large numbers of people to service rooms, prepare food, and maintain hotel infrastructure. These are jobs that should be relatively secure from the advancement of technology and artificial intelligence. Moreover, the industry can offer employment to Filipinos living in remote places. As the growing trends continue for unexplored destinations, the impact of tourism spreads to more far-flung parts of the country. Of equal importance, tourism has the capacity to replace prohibited jobs with legitimate income sources. It is not just about offering opportunities to people who might otherwise struggle to find work, it is also about providing them avenues to derive decent income streams that will allow them to escape from the chains of poverty. In the long run, such effects can allow for greater poverty alleviation and improvement in the distribution of income in the country.

 

Conclusions

Together with long-existing problems and issues in the travel and tourism industry, sustainability considerations have become a primary concern. Tourism stakeholders need to fully understand the issues, identify the root causes of the problem, and create interventions that will involve multiple sectors. However, understanding how sustainable tourism works is complex due to the compounded issues persisting. As such, conventional solutions are incapable of addressing the structural deficiencies that allow problems to continuously exist.

Hence, we use the ST approach because of its ability to illustrate and deal effectively with the issues critical to sustainable tourism. It identifies the underlying structures that influence sustainable tourism development. Our analysis proposes that tourism stakeholders find solutions that are beneficial to the industry in the long term despite difficulties, myriad interactions, and the shortfalls of straightforward obvious solutions. As such, government agencies, tourism planners and operators, among others, would need to grasp the dynamic and complex nature of the industry. We propose a holistic viewpoint where seemingly isolated and independent issues associated with the industry are streamlined and integrated. Operationally, a successful sustainable tourism program would require coordinated efforts from tourism authorities, peace and order, infrastructure, health and local governments, among others.

As seen from Figure 1, tourism stakeholders are crucial in the feedback loops we have illustrated. They can play a dual role in reinforcing or inhibiting sustainability efforts. Hence, cooperation and coordination with value chain participants in every stage of the experience is necessary to ensure sustainable tourism. Such is the case because unregulated and rapid tourism growth undermines sustainability due to its inadvertent effects. In making sustainable tourism work, we have established that profitable businesses, local jobs, and tourist satisfaction are critical drivers. 

Involving those who are participating and affected by tourism activities can prompt the sense of ownership of community members. Hence, they will instinctively conserve a tourist attraction. Meanwhile, tourist satisfaction leads to more tourist arrivals posing environmental stress and warranting specific and long-term capacity management policies (i.e., limiting tourist arrivals, raising prices, incentivising sustainable practices, among others).

A successful sustainable tourism program would require coordinated efforts from tourism authorities, peace and order, infrastructure, health and local governments, among others.

It is the responsibility of the local government, local communities, and private enterprises to design, and to enforce regulations that will create long-term benefits that will outweigh short-term costs. Therefore, policies must go beyond generating arrivals that disregard carrying capacity limits. Instead, policies must focus on the creation and implementation of strategic plans that emphasise environmental sustainability, profitable enterprises and local community involvement. In the long run, tourism will truly be a vehicle to increase employment, to create more income-generating activities, and to reduce poverty incidence.   

About the Author

Fernando Martin Roxas, D.B.A. is a Full Professor at the Asian Institute of Management (AIM). He teaches Operations Management, Quantitative Analysis, Systems Thinking, Project Management, and other basic modules in the Degree and Executive Learning Programs of the Institute. He is also the Executive Director of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) – Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism. He obtained his Doctor in Business Administration from De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines. Email: [email protected]

John Paolo Rivera, Ph.D. is the Associate Director of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) – Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism. Prior to joining AIM, he was Associate Professor at the School of Economics of De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines, where he also obtained his Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. Email: [email protected]

Eylla Laire Gutierrez is a Research Coordinator of the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) – Dr. Andrew L. Tan Center for Tourism. Prior to joining AIM, she served as intern at the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) Philippines. She is currently completing her Master of Arts in Development Policy at De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines. Email: [email protected]

References

  1. Arnold, R.D., & Wade, J.P. (2015). A definition of systems thinking: A systems approach. 1. Procedia Computer Science, 44, 669-678. 
  2. Aronson, D. (1996). Overview of Systems Thinking. Retrieved from http://www.thinking.net/
  3. Systems_Thinking/OverviewSTarticle.pdf
  4. Mai, T., & Smith, C. (2015). Addressing the threats to tourism sustainability using systems thinking: A case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(10), 1504-1528.
  5. O’Riordan, T. (2013). Sustainability for wellbeing. Environmental Innovation and Societal 6. Schiuma, G., Carlucci, D., & Sole, F. (2012). Applying a systems thinking framework to assess
  6. knowledge assets dynamics for business performance improvement. Expert Systems with Applications, 39, 8044-8050. 
  7. Serrao-Neumann, S., et al. (2016). Marine governance to avoid tipping points: Can we adapt the adaptability envelope? Marine Policy, 65, 56-67.
  8. World Economic Forum. (2017). The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017. Retrieved from http://ev.am/sites/default/files/WEF_TTCR_2017.pdf

Can HR Level Up, Please? A Case Study

By Bart Tkaczyk

Human Resource Management (HRM) has been around for decades. Apparently, same goes for organisation-wide issues such as toxic workplace culture, inequality in the workplace and sexual harassment to name a few. With these problems continually hitting organisations, how can HR demonstrate its greater value to the organisation to boost its timeless distinction and relevance?

Although Human Resource Management (HRM) is not the basis of all business activity, it is the basis of all management activity.

Having said that, HR has suffered from a major identity crisis – for decades. In fact, Peter Drucker, a management guru, described HRM, or “personnel management” as it was known in the 1950s, as a “trash can activity”, embracing a range of unrelated, low-level management operations that are shunned by higher-status management specialisms.1 Of note, HRM replaced the term “personnel management” in the 1980s when HRM courses began to be delivered as part of MBA curricula at business schools in North America.

With so many particularly nasty problems hitting organisations nowadays, such as toxic workplace culture, inequality in the workplace and sexual harassment, how can HR demonstrate its greater value to the organisation today?2,3,4 HR strategising may be the answer.

HR Strategising: A Mini Case Study

Writing down an HRM strategy document is not an unhelpful act. Yet, in today’s more complex, more ambiguous and more resource-constrained times, constant strategising is a lot more crucial to driving performance and achieving organisational success than just producing a physical document entitled “HRM strategy” that, in many organisations, is merely a “dead document” more often than not.

At a management consulting firm in North America, HR has never lost its relevance. As a matter of fact, it has chosen to become a truly iconic function. HR strategising has always involved continuously – and critically – reviewing and reflecting on the question: What exactly are the intentions of our enterprise, formed or formulated, toward the management of our people that are implemented at the philosophy, practices, and policy (3P) levels?

Let’s now look at some of the signature elements they have crafted that help deliver on their strategic people management promise.5,6,7

 

Strategic HRM at the Philosophy Level

Case in point: Leading by using culture to maximum advantage.8 “Nine times out of ten, we hire people who are “positive energisers”. We’ve realised that happy consultants are better at building and sustaining high-quality connections both at work and outside the office, and being great with people is key in consulting. In fact, not only do positive energisers perform better, but those who are closely connected to a positive energiser perform better too”, shares the Chief HR Officer (CHRO).

Evidently, culture is big there. While some companies hire for job fit, they hire for organisational fit. Selection is always a social, “two-way” process. If somebody joins the enterprise with a remarkable skill set, yet not a great culture fit, the organisation will not be happy (such staff will not be high-performing, plus they may be breaking the norms), and the employee will not be on top of the world either as they may feel unrecognised.

If somebody joins the enterprise with a remarkable skill set, yet not a great culture fit, the organisation will not be happy, and the employee will not be on top of the world either as they may feel unrecognised.

Culture is all about execution, and so culture and strategy need to be aligned. There are three strategic HRM efforts taken for energising culture for “positively deviant” performance, that is to say, performance far above the norm:

• Principle 1: Select consultants for “culture fit” first – this will affect how the firm thinks, feels, behaves and performs. Make sure they can contribute to the culture too.

• Principle 2: Socialise positively, and provide the recruits with diverse Learning and Development (L&D) opportunities; for example, by means of “reverse mentoring”.

• Principle 3: Offer a “total reward” package. When designing reward strategies, go beyond tangible/financial or transactional rewards (e.g. base pay, shares-based schemes, pensions, etcetera). Rather, incorporate all management initiatives such as relational rewards (e.g. career development) or communal rewards (e.g. employee voice, or recognition for a job well done) that may add higher value to the experience of working in the firm.

The bottom line is, positive employees will energise the workplace – promoting high-quality links at work. Negative ones will de-energise it – promoting low-quality connections.

 

Strategic HRM at the Practices Level

Case in point: Reverse mentoring. Mentoring is about creating and sustaining a partnership that helps your mentee to continuously learn and develop. Although formal mentoring is not very popular (ATD research finds that only 29% of organisations have a formal mentoring program in place), it does matter (6 in 10 participants indicate that their formal mentoring programs help to meet learning goals to a high or very high extent).9

Reverse mentoring is a powerful HR practice. Therein, a male CHRO is mentored by a female middle manager so that the CHRO can gain a direct insight into the career barriers and major challenges that women leaders face at work.

“The ‘reverse mentoring’ practice is extremely effective because it improves on the career mobility – for example, by reducing internal promotion biases, it helps more women into senior roles. Every organisation needs to smash any glass ceiling patterns”, evangelises the Head of Diversity.

 

Strategic HRM at the Policy Level

Case in point: Consider some “intra-office dating” policy – potentially amorous “workers may ask out a co-worker just once. An ambiguous response such as ‘I’m rather busy tonight’ counts as a definite ‘No!’”, explains General Counsel.

HR needs to constantly strategise – at the philosophy, practices, and policy (3P) levels. By doing so, it can boost its timeless distinction and relevance, which in turn, could build its scaling power – and become universally recognised, even iconic.

Instances of making unwelcome sexual advances in the workplace have been a growing problem.10 Courts rule that there are two patterns of sexual harassment: “quid pro quo harassment” (form of sexual harassment in which sexual favours are requested in return for job-related benefits), and “hostile work environment” (a more subtle form of sexual harassment deriving from off-color jokes, lewd comments, and so on).

By way of illustration, among other things, the dating policy playbook at the management consultancy recommends:

•  “Romances with higher-ups/subordinates aren’t a good idea at all.” This may fuel rumors about somebody “sleeping their way to the top”.

•  “Peer-dating is acceptable”. The best situation is peers in two different departments with individual career plans.

•  “HR should step in when: (a) individual or collective performance is affected, (b) when confidentiality is breached, or (c) when other employees complain.”

•  “Come forward”. Employees are supported to “come forward” when they feel that sexual harassment is happening from an office relationship break-up.

•  “Sexual Harassment 2.0”. Any unwanted sexual advances via any technology (in the workplace or outside the office) should be immediately reported/disclosed.

“No public displays of affection (PDAs) in the office”.

Irrespective of the case, sexual harassment is illegal, and the enterprise is responsible for controlling it.

 

Take-Away Message

Ultimately, to get its mojo back, HR needs to  constantly strategise – at the philosophy, practices, and policy (3P) levels. By doing so, it can boost its timeless distinction and relevance, which in turn, could build its scaling power – and become universally recognised, even iconic. HR had better level up and get transformed into a trusted business partner or else it will not be at the table – the board table, period. 

About the Author

Bart Tkaczyk, Fulbright Scholar at the University of California at Berkeley, Course Leader (mbasprint.com), management thinker and writer, is in the business of energising extremely good leaders around the globe to aim even higher. On Twitter @DrBTkaczykMBA.

 

References

1. Heery, E and Noon, M. (2008). Trash Can Activity. A Dictionary of Human Resource Management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

2. HBR Podcast. (2018, May 3). Toxic Workplaces. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/podcast/2018/05/toxic-workplaces.html

3. ILR Review. (2017). A Special Issue on Inequality in the Workplace. ILR Review, Vol. 70, Iss. 1. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, ILR School.

4. SHRM. (2018). Workplace Harassment Case Studies & Research. Alexandria, VA: Society for Human Resource Management. www.shrm.org/ResourcesAndTools/hr-topics/employee-relations/Pages/Workplace-Harassment-Case-Studies.aspx

5. As a snapshot of the consulting industry, see Tkaczyk, B. (2017). “A Balanced Approach to Professional HRD Consulting: Lessons from the Field”. Global Business and Organizational Excellence (GBOE), Vol. 36, Iss. 4, pp. 6–16.

6. For sample consulting methods, see Tkaczyk, B. (2017). The Practical Rigor of Management Consulting: Methods, Frameworks, and Impact. Alexandria, VA: Association for Talent Development.

7. For more insights into the consulting industry, see Tkaczyk, B. (2018). “Business Leadership for the Management Consulting Industry: A New Model for the Greater Good”. Rutgers Business Review (RBR), Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 53–66.

8. Chatman, JA and Cha, SE. (2003). “Leading by Leveraging Culture.” California Management Review (CMR), Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 20-34.

9. ATD. (2017). Mentoring Matters: Developing Talent with Formal Mentoring Programs. Alexandria, VA: Association for Talent Development.

10. Pearce, JA. (2010). “What Execs Don’t Get about Office Romance”. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring, pp. 39-40.

Tourism: the Philippines’ Next Growth Engine

The beauty of the Palawan Islands, Coron Philippines

By Bernardo Villegas and Maria Cherry Lyn Rodolfo

Home to some of the world’s finest tourist destinations, the Philippines can indeed achieve significant economic headway by fostering its tourism industry. Discover how Dutertenomics and the government’s rebalancing strategy or pivot towards its Northeast Asian neighbours such as China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are contributing to the positive outlook of the country’s tourism sector.

 

Under the Republic Act No. 9593 of 2009, Philippine tourism is recognised as an industry of national importance, an engine for investments, employment, growth and national development. Tourism has emerged as the third engine of economic growth in the Philippine service sector, next only to the remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers and the Information Technology-Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector. Tourism’s contribution to the Philippine GDP reached 12.2% in 2017 and grew by 24.2% from the 2016 record.1 In terms of share to total Philippine export revenues, foreign tourism spending contributed 9.2%, next only to semiconductors and miscellaneous services. Its value expanded by 43.9% – from PhP 311.7 billion in 2016 to PhP 448.6 billion in 2017. The domestic tourism expenditure, accounting for 22.8% of household final consumption expenditure, reached Php 2.6 trillion in 2017, higher by 25.5% from its 2016 record.

There is good news to share with regard to tourism volume, a major component of the tourism expenditures. Domestic tourism, projected at 70 million in 2017,2 continues to serve as backbone of Philippine tourism, making it resilient to external shocks over the years. In 2017, the Philippines hosted 6.6 million foreign tourists or 11% higher than in 2016. For the first quarter of 2018, the number of foreign visitors increased by 14.8% from 1,784,882 to 2,049,094, half of them originating from South Korea, China, and the United States. These figures for the first three months of the year already represented 27% of the 7.4 million target number of visitors for 2018 under the National Tourism Development Plan. The not so good news is that the foreign tourism number of the Philippines is way behind its neighbours. In 2017, for example, the country attracted just 6.6 million foreign visitors compared to Thailand at 33 million, Malaysia 27 million, Singapore 16 million, Indonesia 12 million, Vietnam 10 million. One advantage of our neighbours is that they share borders with each other (unlike the Philippines where more than 98% of tourists enter and exit by air) and their road and airport infrastructure is very good to support multi-country trips and tour packages. The thrust of the new DOT leadership under Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat to implement the National Tourism Development Plan, “to prioritize improving policies on access, connectivity, and security as well as enhance programs on tourism infrastructure”3 and to broaden and deepen the linkages of farming and agriculture with tourism markets in the value chain provide good opportunity to increase yields from longer stay and higher daily spending. By developing and offering diversified, competitive and sustainable product portfolios as well as efficient and seamless transportation across the Philippine archipelago, tourists will have better reasons to purchase multi-island and multi-destination packages thru the extensive network of airports and seaports across the country. Apart from investments in connectivity and access, tourist destinations need investments in destination infrastructure – rooms, water, sanitation, and power – to sustain growth. 

There is an upside in what is called Dutertenomics, i.e. if the massive infrastructure investment projects both from the government and private sector side (PPP) are actually implemented, the influx of foreign visitors and increase in the number of domestic travellers could even be beyond expectations. Note that a good number of the planned projects involve the improvements of airports in the major tourism destinations like Pampanga, Cebu, Bohol, Palawan, Iloilo, Bacolod, Davao and Cagayan de Oro. The utilisation of these airports for Philippine tourism will not only decongest NAIA that handled a total of 41 million passengers in 2017 vs. its design capacity estimated at 31.5 million passengers annually but also make tourists enjoy higher value for their money thru more direct flights to these international airports outside of NAIA. The opening of the second terminal in Mactan-Cebu Airport in June 2018 by Megawide and the Bangalore-based GMR Group will increase the annual passenger handling capacity of the airport from 4.5 million to 12 million. The construction of the new terminal in Clarkfield, Pampanga is designed to expand its current capacity of 4.5 million to 12 million by 2020. Tourists from the beaches of Central Visayas will find it easier to explore the cultural and natural destinations of the Northern Philippines and vice versa. Infrastructure such as railway to/from Manila to Clark and new toll roads that can be pursued by conglomerates such as Metro Pacific and San Miguel, will significantly reduce the commute time of those traveling north, by as much as sixfold. Cavite and Bulacan are too close to Metro Manila as locations for a new airport to solve the serious congestion problem of the National Capital Region. Both alternatives to NAIA will require very expensive reclamation of land which can be ecologically damaging in the case of Cavite; or in the case of Bulacan, worsen the problem of vanishing agricultural lands about which the Secretary of Agrarian Reform has been complaining.

Also contributing to a positive outlook is the rebalancing strategy being followed by the Duterte Administration in shifting greater attention to our closer relations with our Northeast Asian neighbours such as China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan – potential sources of increased tourism flows into the Philippines.  These Northeast Asian source markets already accounted for 53.1% of total foreign visitors in 2017.4 Its first quarter share reached 55% higher than its share of 52.7% during the same period in 2017 largely due to the double-digit growth of arrivals from China, Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong. The Chinese market that accounted for 18.13% grew the fastest at 54.53%. By the end of 2018, the Chinese market would have breached the 1.5 million mark. At a growth of 30% per annum in the next four years, tourists from China will reach the 4.5 million mark and emerge as the Philippine’s top source market by 2022. By that time, China could account for 37% of the country’s target of 12 million foreign tourists. There is a lot of room for growth for tourists from Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia, as well as Australia, and the United Kingdom.

Even more important than its contribution to GDP is the employment-generating potential of the tourism sector, especially in the countryside. For example, the proliferation of bed and breakfast facilities in the rural areas of Palawan, Bicol, Southern Tagalog, Central, and Eastern Visayas – catering especially to more than 70 million domestic tourists – offer employment opportunities to the families of the households of farmers who are among the poorest in the Philippines. As of 2017, the tourism sector was estimated to have a total employment of 5.3 million, representing about 13.2% of the total workforce in the country.5  In 2017, of the total employed in the sector, the Accommodation and Food and Beverage sector accounted for 33.0%; passenger transport 37.9% recreation, entertainment and cultural services 6.2%; retail trade on tourism-characteristic goods 6.6%; travel agencies and tour operators 0.7% and miscellaneous 15.7%.6  The Duterte administration is targeting to generate employment for 6.5 million persons by 2022, which would bring up the rate to 14.4% of total employee7 which is close to the employment rate of manufacturing today.

At a growth of 30% per annum in the next four years, tourists from China will reach the 4.5 million mark and emerge as the Philippine’s top source market by 2022.

It is providential that the current administration has embarked on a rebalancing of the trade, investment and cultural relations of the Philippines with the rest of the world. Without decoupling with its traditional partners such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, the Duterte administration has been giving more attention to its neighbouring countries in Northeast and Southeast Asian countries, especially to China, South Korea, and Taiwan. In 2016, the Department of Tourism profiled the various nationalities visiting the Philippines through the Annual Visitor Sample Survey conducted across the country’s various airports. As a strategic guide to tourism and travel establishments who want to cater especially to the Chinese, we present the results of the survey revealing the particular characteristics of the Chinese tourist market compared to other nationalities that visited the Philippines during the latest available survey period of 2016:

About 51.5 % of Chinese tourists were married and majority (49.3%) were travelling with their spouses, children, and relatives, a lot more so than other nationalities. This family-orientation may be considered a positive factor since the Philippines is also steeped in family-centered domestic tourism. It also bodes well for keeping a morally sound environment in the tourism destinations which usually are spoiled by backpackers and single individuals looking sometimes for the wrong kinds of fun and entertainment.

Koreans were the huge contributors in terms of foreign tourist receipts within average daily spending of $192.5. Chinese average daily expenditure per capita registered at a relatively low $63.4, although the study shows that while they cut back on spending for accommodation and food and beverage they spend heavily on entertainment and recreation and shopping. The Chinese prefer hotels and resorts for their accommodation, especially those travelling in groups, although their spending per capita is quite low based on the survey. There is bright opportunity for bed and breakfast establishments that can be registered with Airbnb. These enterprises can generate more employment in these areas where underemployment is the most serious problem. They can also be compatible with the efforts of the Government to give a big push to the development of small and medium-scale enterprises. A bnb establishment is usually run like a family business.

With regard to shopping, a good number of Koreans (71.2%) do it in tourist duty-free stores while the other four major nationalities (China, USA, Japan, and Australia) were more willing to go to the shopping malls, possibly due to longer average length of stay.

A relatively large number (55.1%) of Chinese visitors were motivated to go to the Philippines because of recommendation by friends and the presence of friends and relatives. Another 10.1% of them were motivated thru television/radio/film/video/internet, one of the highest among all nationalities.  This makes it very necessary for our travel and tourism enterprises to do a great deal of digital marketing targeted to the Chinese market.

Around 9.3% of Chinese respondents came to the Philippines to explore investment opportunities. The other nationalities averaged only 0 to 1%. This information jibes well with my own experience about large investors, especially in the infrastructure area. The majority of investors who have been asking for economic briefings regarding opportunities to invest in the so-called Dutertenomics list of infrastructures come from China. The next group would be the Taiwanese, who have been expressly told by their President “to go South”.

Good climate is the one thing that the Chinese liked in the Philippines much more compared to that of the other visitors. Other factors that international visitors found positive were the warm hospitality they received and the country’s beautiful sceneries and attractive beaches.  No wonder that since the start of more friendly relations with China occasioned by the more friendly diplomatic relations achieved by the Duterte Administration, we have seen a surge of Chinese visitors in key destinations like Boracay. Panglao, and Puerto Princesa.

The thing that the visitors most disliked about the Philippines, as expected, was the heavy and chaotic traffic. This perennial problem in urban areas like Metro Manila and Metro Cebu should be converted into an opportunity for other fop tourism destinations like Central Luzon, La Union, Aurora, Camarines Sur, Albay, Palawan, Bohol, Batangas, and Davao to attract foreign tourists away from these congested urban areas.  Fortunately, there are increasingly more direct flights to international airports outside Metro Manila that can be gateways for foreign tourists.

The development of the cruise tourism industry is an opportunity to complement the air arrivals by making the seaports in the country friendlier to international cruises. A study funded by USAID entitled “Developing the Philippines as a Cruise Destination:  National Cruise Tourism Strategy” outlined bright prospects for the international cruising market if more of our international ports which are gateways to tourism destinations are rendered more cruise ready. The principal ports ideal for cruising are Manila, Subic Bay, Cebu, Davao, and may I add Batangas City (which is the gateway to some of the most attractive beaches in the Southern Tagalog area). The secondary ports are Bohol (Tagbilaran and Catagbacan), Puerto Princesa, Coron (and surrounding islands), Boracay (Caticlan) and Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur (Currimao and Salomague).  In 2017, the number of port calls reached 139, up by 93% from the previous year and generated 97,338 cruise arrivals. For the period 2012 – 2017, the cruise arrivals expanded by an average of 20.2%. The main markets were China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Over the longer run, there will be increased traffic for cruises within the ASEAN Economic Community since our neighbouring countries, especially Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar are experiencing a rapid increase in their middle-income households who will have more discretionary income to go on cruises in the region. Whether or not these potentials will actually be exploited in the next five years will depend on the ability of the Duterte Administration to cut through the red tape, bureaucracy and political intrigues that unfortunately torpedo the best-aid plans. 

About the Authors

Bernardo M. Villegas is a Visiting Professor of IESE Business School in Barcelona, Professor at the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) and Research Director of the Center for Research and Communication, Manila.  He has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University (1963) and is a Certified Public Accountant, having been one of the CPA board topnotchers.

Dr. Maria Cherry Lyn Rodolfo is an Economic Consultant on tourism to both public and private enterprises and former Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Asia and the Pacific.

 

References

1. Philippine Statistical Authority. Philippine Tourism Satellite Accounts. http://psa.gov.ph/content/contribution-tourism-economy-122-percent-2017. Accessed on June 8, 2018.

2. National Tourism Development Plan 2016-2022. Department of Tourism. 

3. http://tourism.gov.ph/news_features/opening_statement.aspx . Accessed on May 30, 2018.

4. http://tourism.gov.ph/tourism_dem_sup_pub.aspx.  Accessed on May 15, 2018.

5. Philippine Statistical Authority. Philippine Tourism Satellite Accounts. http://psa.gov.ph/content/contribution-tourism-economy-122-percent-2017. Accessed on June 8, 2018.

6. Philippine Statistical Authority. Philippine Tourism Satellite Accounts. http://psa.gov.ph/content/contribution-tourism-economy-122-percent-2017. Accessed on June 8, 2018.

7. National Tourism Development Plan 2016-2022. Department of Tourism.

Ease of Doing Business Act – the key to the Philippines’ Economic Comeback?

The Philippines has been vying for the ease of doing business act to be signed, and when it was on May 28, economists and business leaders are on the loose, trying to see if this act/bill will become the ultimate key to the country’s economic comeback. Compared to other ASEAN countries, the Philippines is struggling to cope up with the rising infrastructures and economies of its fellows. How well will the Philippines do in the international business market once the act comes into play?

 

President Rodrigo Duterte made a move to sign and approve of the “overdue” Ease of Doing Business and Efficient Government Service Delivery Act, or the Republic Act  No. 11032, with the presence of Congress leaders on May 28, 2018, Monday.1

The law mandates to make the country’s business environment more engaging and conducive to local and foreign investors. It also promises to make the application easier and faster, having to adopt a unified application form for local tax, building, sanitary and zoning clearances, and so on.

Although the business market is doing fairly well from an outsider’s perspective, the World Bank’s (WB) ranking says otherwise. According to their latest report, the Philippines stands at no. 113, with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita ($US) of 3,580, and is lagging behind fellow Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries like Singapore (no. 2), Malaysia (no. 24) and Thailand (no. 26).2

How well will the Philippines do in the international business market once the act comes into play?

 

Philippines vs. fellow countries in Asia

Ernst & Young Global Limited said in their report that the Philippines also has an expatriate-friendly environment, numerous developed cities and a strong telecommunications network. Lower labor costs and support from both the public and private sectors also make the country desirable for outsourcing. Thus, bringing in Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) and global in-house center (GIC) services, to cover the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) service sector demands.3

On the other hand, India is also known for being a primary industry for call centers. They have over a million employees working at their Business Process Management (BPM) industry, which is similar to the Philippines’. They also offer services including customer support, email support, web design, web development, content writing, proofreading, and accounting among many others.4

Foreign investors and clients usually find Filipinos’ high level of proficiency in English and familiarity with American culture a unique edge among international service providers, like India, and becomes an advantage when more service providers come and invest in our business environment.

Compared to other ASEAN countries, the Philippines is struggling to cope up with the rising infrastructures and economies of its fellows. Singapore, for example, stands at no. 2 worldwide for the ease of doing business rankings, with a GNI of $US 51, 880. Their economy has also been ranked as the most open in the world (2012 Global Enabling Trade Report), seventh least corrupt (2014 Corruption Perceptions Index), most pro-business (2012 World Bank Doing Business Report), with low tax rates (2013 Index of Economic Freedom) and has the third highest per-capita GDP in the world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

Foreign investors and clients usually find Filipinos’ high level of proficiency in English and familiarity with American culture a unique edge among international service providers.

As Singapore is highly urbanised, foreign investors and entrepreneurs would want to get their businesses in the country. One can feel really secure with the economy of Singapore, and doing business is relatively easier for their adoption of technological advancements.

However, because of the safe economy, government funding and low taxes, foreign investors whose businesses are not related to finance, biochemistry and industrial engineering might have a hard time in gathering a workforce. In addition, due to the very limited country size and strategic port location, it’s expensive to buy and rent land space in Singapore. The space might cost twice as much compared to neighboring Asian countries.

The law mandates to make the country’s business environment more engaging and conducive to local and foreign investors. It also promises to make the application easier and faster, having to adopt a unified application form for local tax, building, sanitary and zoning clearances, and so on.

Like its neighbor, Malaysia has the fourth largest economy in Southeast Asia, with a GNI of $US 9,850 , and is the 23rd most competitive country in the world, according to the 2017 Global Competitiveness Report. Malaysia’s growth in wages may be slow, but their labor productivity is increasing due to their numerous knowledge-based industries and adoption of digital technology.

Above the slow progress of their wages and salaries, some upper class Malaysians have delved into what they call “experiential luxury” that directly translates to not having to possess material things, rather the experience that those things and actions bring.

In effect, entrepreneurs and investors are looking into businesses in Malaysia that may bring “experiential luxury”, such as amusement parks and trampoline parks that are both exciting and definitely full of experience. 

Also, according to Martin Pasquier of Innovation is Everywhere, the proactive steps the government has taken to build a positive infrastructure for the Malaysian entrepreneurship scene has even come to grow foreign startups that find Malaysia an easier place to grow their business than back home. With Malaysia’s diversified population and quality economy, their stand remains in the world rankings.5

Thailand is doing great economic-wise as they are now found to be a newly industrialised country, heavily dependent on exportation. The country has the eighth largest economy in Asia, with a GNI of $US 5,640, where more than two-thirds are coming from their exports. The country also has a low unemployment rate of one percent as of 2014, due to most of the population doing own-account work or working in subsistence agriculture. Aside from rice, Thailand is also the world’s largest rubber exporter and world’s third-largest exporter of seafood, mainly shrimp.

According to the World Bank, Thailand is one of the ten ASEAN countries, aimed at creating a single market and production base, which enables the free flow of goods, investments, labor and capital within the community. Due to Thailand’s reputation as a hospitable business and travel locale, it hosts numerous trade shows, especially in the machinery, garment, and automobile industries. The country is a hotspot for foreign investment while the tourism industry is growing each year, as per the 2016 report of Alliance Experts.6

A report from ServCorp said that corporate taxes are higher in Thailand than in some other countries in Asia. Currently, there is a 30 percent tax on net profits by Thai companies. Every company registered in Thailand is required to submit audited financial statements and to file a tax return annually with the Thai Revenue Department.7

 

The Philippine economy in a few years

Last April, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ernesto Pernia said the country’s economic growth this year could surpass China’s 6.9 percent growth in 2017 and the World Bank’s forecast of 6.7 percent.8

A huge help in the leap would be the ease of doing business act, the future implementation of the National ID system, and the enhancement of the country’s social infrastructure and human capital investments that could help sustain and build economic growth.

Experts at FocusEconomics said that the economy is expected to grow at a robust pace this year and next on the back of a buoyant expansion in fixed investment, which is benefiting from strong public spending and favorable credit conditions at home. Prospects of an overheating economy and capital outflows due to faster monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve could, however, weigh on growth. Their panelists predict a GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.6 percent again in 2019.9

The newly signed act can bring a possible economic upsurge that would maintain the Philippines reputation as a flourishing nation, which is among the fastest-growing economies in Asia through the years.

FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-cast expects the economy to expand 6.6 percent in 2018, which is up 0.1 points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, they expect economic growth of 6.5 percent.

The Philippines is known to have large deposits of natural resources and as producers of gold, copper and chromite. The newly signed act can bring a possible economic upsurge that would maintain the Philippines reputation as a flourishing nation, which is among the fastest-growing economies in Asia through the years. It would continue to push economic development by attracting foreign investment and ongoing integration in the regional and global market.

Making Financial Advice Affordable to the Masses in the Age of Digitalisation

Business people discussion working concept

By Tim France-Massey

Many people in the UK struggle to navigate their way through uncertainty in the current financial climate and achieve their financial planning goals. However new regulations have resulted in a market influx of fintech companies and third-party providers, bringing to consumers innovative new technologies integrated into banking services that at last mean financial planning tools and advice – which were once only available to affluent clients – are now becoming available to everyone.

 

The financial services industry provides essential facilities, which are fundamental to support our modern economy and society. Given the current financial climate in the UK, many people are unable to achieve their goals, struggling to grow their savings, and make better financial decisions. Seeking advice for even standard queries – from sending children to university, to managing finances to ensure a comfortable retirement – can cost £1000s when speaking directly to a financial advisor or wealth manager.  

Customers, even those with high income, are often maintaining a spreadsheet to track all their banking and investments accounts across different institutions. Although low cost, this method is extremely time consuming and opens a new market which innovative fintech companies are beginning to tap into.

The problem is consumers today need financial advice more than ever before – with worldwide interest rates at rock bottom since the last recession, the UK savings ratio has plunged to an all-time low of 4.9%.1 The new Pension Freedoms has resulted in pensioners able to go into “Drawdown” instead of buying an Annuity, with nearly half a million retirees taking this option, and yet a third of them having no experience of being invested in the stock market.2 In fact, according to the FCA, only 6% of UK adults have had regulated financial advice in the past 12 months.3 Customers, even those with high income, are often maintaining a spreadsheet to track all their banking and investments accounts across different institutions – trying to build up a holistic picture of their net worth, spending trends and budget by themselves. Although low cost, this method is extremely time consuming and opens a new market which innovative fintech companies are beginning to tap into.

 

New regulations shake up the market

Earlier this year the financial services industry saw the implementation of the PSD2 regulations in Europe and the Open Banking regulations in the UK, which require banks to allow customer to give permission for FCA-regulated providers to access their current account data via Open Banking APIs. Therefore, the market has seen an influx of new third-party providers, larger technology giants and entrepreneurial fintech start-ups, who can access customer data easily, through the new regulations. New technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain are now being integrated into financial services, enabling companies to start bringing financial and wealth management advice – traditionally expensive, and only available to affluent clients – to virtually anyone.

The potential advantages of the Open Banking regulations include making it easier for consumers to get a clear view of finances, but also making it easier to shop around for a better deal. These benefits sound positive for the consumer, but the power of big data analytics to spot trends based on spending patterns is immense. Already there are fintechs who have developed transaction analytics algorithms that can determine consumers’ investment risk appetite, credit risk level, political affiliation, likely addictions, health issues, and even probability of divorce.

New technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain are now being integrated into financial services, enabling companies to start bringing financial and wealth management advice – traditionally expensive, and only available to affluent clients – to virtually anyone.

In fact, there are a number of money management apps from small fintechs already making waves in the market. Moneyhub is a complete money management app that uses screen scraping to provide a picture of total worth across multiple banks, card companies, investment platforms, and pension providers. It enables a comprehensive holistic view of consumers’ finances, showing spending patterns across all accounts, allowing consumers to create accurate budgets and track progress against it, and as the data builds up over time, can create a trajectory of net worth and cash flow projection. Moneyhub can even import the individual equities and funds in a consumer’s investment accounts and is able to tell whether they hold any of the worst performing investment funds. Additionally, Cleo is a Chatbot integrated into Facebook Messenger which similarly uses screen-scraping to aggregate accounts, help consumers budget, and sweep unused cash into a savings pot at the end of the month. Yolt, is another whose app leverages the Open Banking APIs to provide a 360-degree financial view.

 

Appealing to the new age banking customer

Many commentators predict that Open Banking represents a major threat to the incumbent banks, as it will allow the digital challenger banks like Monzo, Revolut and Starling to offer more targeted competing financial products. Yet there is the counter argument that many customers may be more likely to trust their old bank to be their data aggregator than the recent startups and challenger banks. In the wake of the recent furore around the misuse of Facebook data by Cambridge Analytica, many consumers may be justifiably wary about sharing their transaction data with an unknown entity. Despite the influx of new innovative services, banks are arguably in the strongest position of all when it comes to remaining at the top – as they have several advantages – such as a large number of customers, strong brand awareness, huge distribution networks, physical ownership of infrastructure and significant capital. However, traditional long-standing financial institutions have been burdened by legacy technology, strict regulations, and lengthy administrative processes – making them lag behind when it comes to providing digital customer experiences. To keep up with the challengers, financial institutions need to shift their focus to enabling better digital experiences, tapping into technology, to appeal to the banking customers of tomorrow.

One of the UK’s major banks has been the first to launch its own version of account aggregation services with a new app. The app allows customers to aggregate accounts from other banks alongside their owned accounts, with sending categorisation, a budgeting tool and a regular payment calendar. Given most mainstream banks have historically shied away from account aggregation technologies, owing to risk and data protection issues of screen-scraping financial data from competitor websites, this major bank is the first to take a leap, in hopes to offer to its customers more personalised financial service experiences.

To keep up with the challengers, financial institutions need to shift their focus to enabling better digital experiences, tapping into technology, to appeal to the banking customers of tomorrow.

Digital platforms, such as robo-advice, are already beginning to disrupt the market for investment advice. Initially launched by fintechs like Nutmeg and Scalable Capital in the UK, robo-advice services help consumers plan for a specific financial goal or grow their money faster than savings. This is done by allowing consumers to compare the potential gains over time, versus the different levels of investment risk, using algorithms to recommend a fund or to manage a portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, fintechs are now being joined by the established banks with their own robo-advice services, of which charge a minimal fee for counsel. These low costs are possible because digitalisation and automation technologies reduce the need for human involvement in the provision of support. Technology though, is only part of the answer. Understanding the customer’s needs, emotions, and capacity to understand new concepts is just as critical to designing a successful digital service.

 

Digital services to address growing financial planning needs

Whilst the uptake of robo-advice services is growing, they still only provide “simplified advice”, meaning they don’t assess a customer’s complete financial situation or consider other investments such as property or pensions, and in most cases can only address a single goal. Holistic money management apps do provide consumers with the foundation to manage day-to-day spending and make smarter decisions about how to meet financial goals, through borrowing or saving, depending on how much they can afford to put away or pay off each month. However, customers need to be able to set future goals and model scenarios for achieving them basedon different levels of risk, timeframe, and needs. Luckily, there are new digital services designed to address this need.

Another notable app on the market for long term planning, including retirement, is from 7 Investment Management, a boutique wealth manager in the UK. Using the app via a tablet device, consumers can drag and drop family structure, properties, assets, liabilities and goals, and get a digital long-term plan that immediately outlines when a user is likely to run out of money. Additionally, a large British insurance company have launched another planning service which helps to estimate income needs in retirement, and projects the future value of a pension pot. The planner is also equipped with tools to model the various options to drawdown, buy an annuity, or both, at retirement, and highlights if there is likely to be a shortfall. These free services available to all give consumers a reasonable idea of whether they are on track for a baked beans or champagne retirement.

There are now many tools available to allow consumers to get control of their finances, and judge whether they are on track to meet specific financial targets. However, the next step is to bring these services all into one place and to provide actual tangible advice. Currently, these services still fail to be able to tell consumers how they know a particular plan is the best option, if they are paying too much in interest or if they have forgotten something important when it comes to their financial planning, like life insurance.

As highlighted through research,4 most consumers don’t have a plan. They don’t know if they are financially healthy and on track, and don’t know where to go to get help. When they want the help, most banks do not offer it or if they do, the consumer simply cannot afford it. However, there is an existing demand. Clearscore, with over 4 million users in the UK, has revealed the huge appetite from customers to know their Credit Score and how to improve it. Similarly, there is emerging interest4 from customers to know and improve their financial health score.

Fintechs such as Lemonade Money offer a digital financial health check that looks holistically across short term income versus spending, liabilities and protection. Longer term goals to calculate a financial health score, giving suggestions to improve the score, access to related products, and in addition a Hero Money Coach. The UK banks aren’t far behind, with some now offering a one off face-to-face financial health check in branch, by phone or video. Outside the UK too, multiple banking groups have introduced financial health check apps that are part of the standard mobile banking app. These services are constantly updating and showing how financial behaviour over time affects a consumer’s financial health positively or negatively.

Most consumers don’t have a plan. They don’t know if they are financially healthy and on track, and don’t know where to go to get help. When they want the help, most banks do not offer it or if they do, the consumer simply cannot afford it.

Open Banking promises to allow consumers to use their data to get better deals on financial products and is opening the market to dozens of challengers offering innovative products and services which tap into modern day consumer wants and needs. Given that the regulations and its implementation are still only in its infancy, consumers are yet to see if large financial institutions or digital challenger banks like Fidor or Monzo will be the first to offer holistic financial planning tools and services for advice. However, as the landscape continues to develop, consumers can eventually expect these services to be a part of their everyday financial services experiences.

About the Author

Tim France-Massey is Director of Digitalisation, leading consulting engagements for major UK financial institutions from Wipro Digital’s London Lab. As Head of Digital and Data at Barclays Wealth, Tim led the digital transformation of Private Bank client and colleague propositions, and as Head of Mobile at RBS/Natwest, launched the UK’s first ever iPhone Mobile Banking App, a catalyst that helped lead to the widespread adoption of mobile banking.    

 

References

1. Office for National Statistics (ONS) 30 June 2017 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/bulletins/quarterlysectoraccounts/octobertodecember2017)

2. ThisIsMoney – YouGov Survey for Zurich UK (https://www.zurich.co.uk/en/about-us/media-centre/life-news/2018/third – of – retirees – relying – on – drawdown – are – first – time – investors)

3. FCA Financial Advice and Guidance: Quantitative research to inform the Financial Advice Market Review (FAMR) Baseline June 2017 (https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/research/famr-baseline-report.pdf)

4. Consumer interviews conducted by Designit, a Wipro company, in 2017

EDITOR'S PICK OF THE WEEK

CFO's new mandate. CFO explaining the presentation

The Performance and Transformation Orchestrator: The CFO’s New Mandate in the Age of AI

By Terence Tse CFOs are evolving into AI-driven transformation orchestrators, balancing finance, technology, and strategy while upskilling teams, managing risks, and driving measurable business value. A key insight from this year’s AI for CFOs event, organized...

WISE DECISION MAKER GUIDE

POWER INFLUENCERS

Emerging Trends

The Future of Global Trade