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Trend vs Range: The Market Regime Question That Determines Whether a Trade Has Edge

Trend vs range is not technical analysis, it’s decision quality

The most expensive trading mistake is not a “bad entry.” It’s entering the wrong kind of market with the wrong expectations. A trend-following approach can bleed in a range. A mean-reversion approach can get steamrolled in a clean continuation. And in transitional regimes, almost everything underperforms, not because strategies are flawed, but because the market isn’t paying for conviction.

This is why professional traders quietly obsess over a single question before they care about setups:

Is the market in a trend regime or a range regime, and is that regime stable enough to trade?

If you skip this question, you end up doing what most participants do: trading movement, then blaming execution when that movement fails to follow through.

The two regimes that matter (and the third that hurts you)

Most markets spend time in three practical states:

1. Trend regime: progress is measurable

A trend regime is not “price moving.” It’s price making net progress over time. You see:

  • Breaks that hold instead of instantly reclaiming
  • Pullbacks that respect structure instead of slicing through it
  • Continuation that doesn’t require constant correction

In trend regimes, you can be imperfect and still be right often enough to survive, because the environment supports follow-through.

2. Range regime: rotation is the edge

Range regimes aren’t “bad.” They’re just different. The market is rotating rather than progressing. You see:

  • Levels repeatedly tested and defended
  • Moves that reverse back into the box
  • “Breakouts” that frequently fail and return

A range can pay very well — but only if you trade it as a range. Trend logic inside a range is how traders get chopped.

3. Transitional regime: movement without payoff structure

This is the regime traders confuse with opportunity. Transitional conditions are where:

  • The market looks like it’s about to trend, but doesn’t
  • Range behavior breaks down, but trend behavior doesn’t stabilize
  • Timeframes disagree and narratives flip every hour

Transitional regimes are where decision load explodes: more checking, more entries, more re-entries, and more “maybe this time.” This is where consistency dies.

The fastest way to detect regime (without overcomplicating it)

You don’t need ten indicators to determine regime. You need a few observable behaviors.

A simple “progress test”

Ask:

1. Do breaks hold?

Or does price reclaim immediately?

2. Do pullbacks behave?

Or do they whipsaw through key areas?

3. Is there net progress after the impulse?

Or does it stall and drift back?

If the answer is “reclaim, whipsaw, stall,” you don’t have a clean trend regime — you have churn.

The structure test (range vs trend)

  • If price repeatedly returns to a midpoint and fails to expand: likely range
  • If price repeatedly establishes new territory and holds it: likely trend
  • If it alternates between both behaviors: transitional (stand down)

These are not abstract ideas. They are environment filters: they determine whether your next trade is a real opportunity or an unnecessary decision.

Why most traders lose in ranges (and think it’s bad luck)

In a range, the most common loss pattern is:

  • A breakout looks clean
  • The trader enters
  • Price returns into the range
  • The trader re-enters because “the setup still looks valid”
  • The market repeats the same rotation and the trader gets recycled

This isn’t bad luck. It’s regime mismatch. The range did exactly what ranges do: rotate, trap trend logic, and punish impatience.

Why trend attempts fail: “right direction” but wrong timing layer

Trend attempts often fail for a different reason: timeframe mismatch.

A lower timeframe can look directional while the higher context is still:

  • rotating,
  • fading the move,
  • or compressing.

That mismatch produces a fragile trend attempt — the kind that moves “just enough” to tempt entries, then resets and forces correction. In those conditions, traders either hesitate too long or jump too early, and both lead to the same outcome: frustration and overtrading.

The decision rule that fixes 80% of this

If you want one rule that improves consistency fast:

Only trade when the regime you think you’re in is stable enough to keep paying.

In practice:

  • If you can’t tell whether it’s trend or range, it’s not a trade — it’s a question.
  • If the market keeps switching behavior (break → reclaim → break → reclaim), it’s not a setup problem — it’s a regime problem.
  • If you need constant management to survive, you’re paying the wrong environment.

This is why elite traders treat “no trade” as an active decision, not a passive one.

A practical framework: decide regime first, then choose what you’re allowed to do

Instead of asking “what’s the best entry,” do this:

  1. Classify the regime: trend / range / transitional
  2. Select the only valid playbook for that regime
  3. Stand down if transitional dominates

If you want a clean, structured guide you can reference quickly, use this:

trend vs range market regimes

Final thought: your edge is not prediction, it’s selection

Markets don’t pay for activity. They pay for disciplined participation in the right conditions.

Most traders want a better trigger. Professionals want a better filter.

When you internalize the trend vs range question as a gate, you stop donating attention and risk to environments that don’t reward them — and you become dramatically harder to shake out.

ICE Linked Shootings Spark Protests And National Guard Response In Cities

Tensions flared across multiple U.S. cities as protests, police investigations and political disputes followed two separate shootings involving federal immigration agents this week. Demonstrations erupted in Minneapolis after an ICE agent fatally shot a woman, while a Border Patrol shooting in Portland sent two people to the hospital, further intensifying national concern over the use of force by federal authorities.

In Minnesota, protesters gathered just blocks from the site where an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed a woman earlier this week. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz authorized the state’s National Guard to assist local law enforcement after a day of demonstrations in Minneapolis and nearby areas. Officials said the move aims to maintain public safety as emotions remain high.

At the same time, authorities in Portland, Oregon, confirmed that two people were shot by a U.S. Border Patrol agent on Thursday and remain hospitalized. The Portland Police Bureau said the incident has added to growing unease nationwide following the Minneapolis shooting. Portland Police Chief Bob Day acknowledged “heightened emotion and tension” across the country and urged residents to remain calm as investigators work to establish the facts.

Federal and state officials are now publicly at odds over the Minneapolis case. ICE and the Trump administration have described the shooting as an act of self defense, a claim disputed by state and local authorities. A Minnesota state agency said it has been blocked from accessing key evidence needed to conduct a joint investigation, raising further questions about transparency and oversight.

Meanwhile, details are still emerging about the Portland shooting. According to the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Border Patrol agents were “conducting a targeted vehicle stop” at about 2:19 p.m. PT, DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. Roughly five minutes later, at 2:24 p.m., officers responded to reports of a man and a woman who had been shot near Northeast 146th Avenue and East Burnside. Both victims were transported to a hospital, authorities said.

A preliminary investigation indicates that the two individuals were shot at an initial location before driving away, according to a senior law enforcement source. Portland police later confirmed that shots fired by federal agents left two people injured.

McLaughlin said the driver of the vehicle is believed to be a member of the Tren de Aragua gang. She added that the passenger, who was also the target of the stop, was a Venezuelan migrant “affiliated with the transnational Tren de Aragua prostitution ring and involved in a recent shooting in Portland.” A senior law enforcement source said the two victims are husband and wife.

According to that source, the husband was shot in the arm while the wife suffered a gunshot wound to the chest. Officials have not released updated information on their conditions.

The FBI has taken over the investigation into the Portland incident. The FBI’s Portland office described the shooting as “an assault on … federal officers.” Multnomah County District Attorney Nathan Vasquez said at the scene that ensuring a full and thorough investigation is the immediate priority.

The Portland shooting unfolded as scrutiny of federal immigration enforcement intensified following the Minneapolis death. In Minnesota, state and local leaders have challenged the federal government’s account, saying key questions remain unanswered about the circumstances leading up to the fatal shooting.

Civil rights advocates and community groups have also called for independent investigations in both cases, arguing that public trust depends on clear and credible findings. Protest organizers in Minneapolis said demonstrations will continue until authorities release more information and ensure accountability.

As investigations move forward in both states, officials have warned that tensions may remain elevated. Law enforcement leaders in multiple cities have urged the public to allow the legal process to play out while emphasizing the need to prevent further violence.

For now, the two shootings have placed federal immigration agencies under renewed national scrutiny, with protests, political friction and multiple investigations shaping a rapidly developing story.

Related Readings:

Trrump - Concept of American opinion

Social experiment in New York city

 

Monopoly Capitalism and the Concentration of Capital in Production and Digital Technologies

By Dr. Kalim Siddiqui

This article examines the structural dynamics of monopoly capitalism, tracing its evolution from national industrial concentration to global digital-finance monopolies. Drawing on Marxist critiques, Dr Kalim Siddiqui analyses how intangible assets, credit systems, and transnational corporations concentrate economic power, suppress competition, increase monopolisation, exacerbate inequality, and constrain innovation. The study underscores the political and economic implications of monopoly capital, highlighting its role in stagnation, financialisaton, and democratic erosion.

I. Introduction

Monopoly capitalism denotes an economic order characterized by the dominance of oligopolistic and monopolistic firms within industrial structures. In advanced economies, industrial concentration has risen substantially, driven predominantly by mergers and acquisitions. Industrial economics conventionally measures such trends through the structure–conduct–performance (SCP) paradigm. Kalecki reformulated this relationship around the concept of the “degree of monopoly,” positing that price–cost margins are determined by market power rather than competitive conditions. Within this framework, margins reflect factors such as industrial concentration, collusion, and barriers to entry—including economies of scale and marketing advantages.

This internalization of trade shifts bargaining power decisively, as the constant threat of relocation disciplines labour and exerts persistent downward pressure on wages.

This study develops a structural analysis of advanced capitalist economies by integrating theories of monopoly capitalism, capital concentration, and globalization. It argues that contemporary industrial concentration is not a transitory or efficiency-led phenomenon but a systemic outcome of capital accumulation, propelled by scale economies, technological change, and corporate strategy. Through an examination of the interplay between globalization, corporate power, and sectoral concentration, the analysis demonstrates how monopolistic tendencies erode competitive dynamism, distort the direction of innovation, and amplify systemic fragility. Ultimately, I intend to reconceptualizes market outcomes not as products of impersonal forces, but as results of transnational corporate strategy, embedded within political-economic processes that reinforce dominance across global value chains.

Modern banking emerged historically from the concentration of loanable money-capital, first extending credit to merchants and traders, and later to industrial capitalists. This system embodies a dual centralization: of money-capital itself, and of borrowing entities. Banks profit from the differential between deposit and lending rates—a core mechanism of financial intermediation.

The rise of financialisation, however, represents a decisive shift from this traditional model. It is defined by several structural transformations: industrial capital has markedly reduced dependence on bank lending; banks have aggressively expanded household credit; and households have become deeply integrated into the financial system, both as debtors and as asset-holders.

This evolution aligns with the analysis of Paul Sweezy, who described “mature capitalism” as a monopolistic system that generates an ever-expanding economic surplus. According to him, the productive sphere becomes increasingly unable to absorb this surplus, leading to tendencies toward economic stagnation and rising inequality within advanced capitalist economies. Ultimately, these developments were facilitated by a new social structure of accumulation. Under this framework, the state gradually withdrew not only from direct economic activities but also from its role as a provider of essential public services—including education, healthcare, and social welfare—thereby accelerating the economy’s dependence on financial institutions (Siddiqui, 2023).

This financial dependence emerged in tandem with the neoliberal paradigm. Since the 1980s, neoliberal policies promoting liberalization, deregulation, and privatization have displaced the earlier Keynesian national models. In practice, these policies have fostered not competitive markets but a system of transnational monopoly capitalism, characterized by dominant multinational corporations, rise of foreign direct investment, and consolidated global supply chains. This configuration marks a distinct historical shift, one that differs fundamentally from earlier economic structures—a divergence exemplified, for instance, by the historically limited role of trade in the United States (US) compared to that of the United Kingdom (UK). (Sawyer, 2022)

Concurrently, in the absence of powerful investment stimuli—such as historic technological breakthroughs like the automobile or huge government spending—advanced capitalist economies have grown increasingly dependent on financialization to sustain profits. While this shift has provided a temporary respite from stagnation, its inherent instability—evident in recent financial market turbulence—reveals it as an unsustainable solution. This financial dependence emerged alongside the neoliberal paradigm, which since the 1980s has displaced Keynesian national models through liberalization, deregulation, and privatization (Sawyer, 2022).

Contemporary globalisation has driven a marked expansion of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), alongside a far-reaching reorganisation of production through global supply chains. Although the 2008 global financial crisis temporarily slowed these trends, the global stock of FDI rose from 9 per cent of GDP in 1990 to nearly 44 per cent in 2024. Over the same period, market concentration has deepened in information and communications technology (ICT) sectors, while financialisation has continued to intensify (Siddiqui, 2024a).

The contemporary phase of globalization, characterized by unprecedented corporate concentration and the rising structural power of transnational firms, has demonstrably failed to serve the broader global interest. Instead of delivering widely shared prosperity, it has generated a suite of systemic pathologies: weakened market competition, geographically skewed innovation, rising socioeconomic inequality, and a marked erosion of national policy autonomy. These outcomes fundamentally challenge the dominant narrative that equates globalization with gains in efficiency and inclusive growth, necessitating a critical reassessment of the global economic order.

Within the advanced capitalist economies, these monopolistic tendencies are amplified by the dual forces of financialization and the specific architecture of contemporary trade. The liberalization of capital and goods flows has enabled dominant firms to reorganize production globally, exploit international labour arbitrage, and manage complex supply chains under centralized corporate control. Concurrently, financial markets actively incentivize further consolidation through mergers, acquisitions, and the relentless pressure to maximize shareholder value.

A critical manifestation of this dynamic is the transformation of global trade itself. Post-liberalization, the sharp rise in trade volumes has been accompanied by a qualitative shift: a substantial portion of global commerce now occurs as intra-firm transactions within multinational corporations. This internalization of trade shifts bargaining power decisively, as the constant threat of relocation disciplines labour and exerts persistent downward pressure on wages. Consequently, contrary to theoretical predictions that globalization would heighten competitive pressures, the prevailing dynamics have consolidated market power, thereby elevating the aggregate degree of monopoly in the global economy.

The Chinese model of development differs from that of advanced capitalist economies but is similarly centred on governance structures. State regulation in China has actively shaped the development of major digital platforms, notably WeChat, operated by Tencent, whose expansion has occurred in close alignment with the techno-nationalist strategy of the Communist Party of China (CPC). This strategy prioritises the protection of national interests in the context of China’s late-developing economy. As a result, Chinese “big tech” firms operate under extensive state oversight (Siddiqui, 2024c).

While many large enterprises in China are state-owned and directly controlled by the CPC, private firms such as Alibaba and Tencent are also subject to significant political control and cannot be regarded as independent. Senior executives of these companies are typically members of the Communist Party and are expected to adhere to its policy priorities and ideological framework. Alibaba, through its affiliate Ant Group under the leadership of Jack Ma, provides a notable example: its planned initial public offering was halted by the Chinese authorities in 2020. This intervention illustrates how the Chinese government ensures that the development of the digital economy remains aligned with broader national objectives.

II. Theoretical Discussions

Adam Smith (1776) emphasised competition and freedom of entry for new entrepreneurs. His conception of competition was dynamic rather than static, viewing it as a process that guides the evolution of markets over time. For Smith, the primary concern of antitrust policy was not monopoly per se, but monopolisation—that is, the extension of market power by firms under the pretext of serving social interests. He was critical of exclusive rights and the institutional arrangements that grant firms monopolistic privileges. More broadly, Smith advocated a reconfiguration of the relationship between society and economic organisation, favouring horizontal relationships among equally motivated economic agents over hierarchical structures characterised by segmented and insulated decision-making.

For Karl Marx, capitalist competition played a historically progressive role in dissolving the guild system and dismantling trade restrictions that had characterised feudal society, thereby enabling the emergence of capitalist social relations. He understood capitalist competition as the negation of feudal monopoly, and equally as the negation of the mercantilist monopolies associated with colonial trade and chartered trading companies—institutions that were the primary targets of Adam Smith’s critique. In this sense, competition was historically constitutive of capitalism itself, clearing the institutional obstacles that constrained the free movement of capital and labour (Marx, 1993).

At the same time, Marx argued that capitalist monopoly does not stand outside or in opposition to competition, but rather emerges from it. The development of capitalism is inseparable from the operation of the laws of capitalist competition, and monopoly arises as an outcome of these laws rather than as their negation. Capitalist monopoly is therefore historically distinct from feudal and mercantilist monopolies, which were rooted in legal privilege, political authority, and exclusive trading rights. By contrast, capitalist monopoly is generated endogenously through accumulation, competition, and the concentration and centralisation of capital.

Marx further distinguished between the processes of concentration and centralisation of capital. Concentration refers to the growth of individual capitals through accumulation, while centralisation involves mergers and acquisitions—what Marx described as the “expropriation of capitalist by capitalist.” Centralisation redistributes existing capital into fewer hands and operates more rapidly and forcefully than concentration alone. It accelerates monopolisation by enabling firms to realise economies of scale, adopt new technologies, and reorganise production on an expanded scale. Both concentration and centralisation are propelled by capitalist competition itself, as firms seek to reduce costs, expand market power, and survive competitive pressures (Marx, 1993).

Capitalism is, at its core, a dynamic economic system driven by the relentless pursuit of private profit, a pursuit concentrated among a relatively small number of wealthy individuals and powerful corporations. Under competitive capitalism, surplus value is redistributed among capitals through the equalisation of profit rates, such that individual capitalists’ appropriate profits in proportion to the capital they have advanced (Siddiqui, 2024b). However, as accumulation proceeds, differences in scale, productivity, and access to technology allow some capitals to claim a larger share of total surplus value. The concentration of capital thus enables dominant firms to appropriate disproportionate gains while remaining formally within a competitive framework (Vasudevan, 2022).

Capitalist development thus creates both the social need and the technical means for the emergence of large monopolies. The drive to increase productivity, reduce unit costs, and command larger shares of the market systematically favours large-scale capital. In this way, monopoly is not an external distortion of capitalism, but a structural tendency generated by accumulation and competition.

This understanding highlights a fundamental difference between Marxist and neoclassical conceptions of monopoly. In neoclassical theory, monopoly power is typically derived from market concentration within a defined market and is analysed primarily through price-setting behaviour. By contrast, the Marxist approach locates monopoly power in the concentration and control of capital itself rather than in market structure alone. Capitalist competition implies that a small number of firms appropriate more surplus value than others, and higher rates of accumulation allow these firms to expand their scale of production and secure cost advantages over smaller competitors.

The mainstream economists account that interprets concentration as a temporary or efficiency-enhancing outcome of technological progress. Instead, it emphasises the systemic consequences of monopoly power, including reduced competitive dynamism, distorted patterns of innovation, and heightened vulnerability to economic instability. It also foregrounds the political dimensions of corporate concentration, particularly the growing influence of large firms over regulatory regimes, trade agreements, and national policy frameworks. In this framework, monopoly is rooted not simply in pricing power, but in control over production, technology, and accumulation processes.

The contemporary behaviour of large corporations reflects a structural logic inherent to monopoly capitalism rather than a series of isolated firm-level strategies. Large firms increasingly pursue a dual and mutually reinforcing objective: the expansion of sales and market share on the one hand, and the maximisation of profitability on the other. While neoclassical theory often treats these objectives as potentially conflicting, within monopoly capitalism they converge over time. Market expansion is not merely a route to higher output but a mechanism for consolidating control over demand, supply chains, and technological standards.

This explains why monopoly power in advanced capitalist economies increasingly manifests through oligopolistic structures rather than through single-firm dominance. Contemporary “monopolies” are often systems of coordinated dominance exercised by a small number of firms that collectively shape market outcomes. In such settings, competition persists, but it is competition among giants rather than among a large number of independent producers. This form of rivalry tends to be expressed through non-price mechanisms—such as control over technology, branding, data, and access to distribution channels—rather than through price competition alone.

The prevalence of oligopolistic dominance across diverse sectors—including technology, transportation, finance, agribusiness, and essential services—indicates that monopoly capitalism should be understood as a systemic condition rather than as a sector-specific anomaly. High levels of concentration are closely associated with rising barriers to entry, declining rates of new firm formation, and a growing divergence in profitability between dominant firms and the rest of the corporate sector. These patterns suggest that monopoly power increasingly functions as a means of redistributing surplus value towards large capital rather than as a temporary outcome of superior efficiency or innovation.

This interpretation stands in sharp contrast to mainstream accounts that attribute market concentration primarily to technological progress or consumer welfare–enhancing efficiencies. While technological change undoubtedly plays a role, it operates within institutional and competitive structures that favour the consolidation of capital. Large firms are uniquely positioned to absorb the fixed costs associated with research and development, data accumulation, and regulatory compliance, further reinforcing their dominance. Innovation, rather than undermining monopoly power, often becomes a mechanism through which it is stabilised and extended.

Moreover, the expansion of monopoly power has significant political and macroeconomic implications. The concentration of corporate power undermines competitive wage dynamics, weakens labour’s bargaining position, and contributes to persistent income and wealth inequality. At the macroeconomic level, monopoly capitalism is associated with slower productivity diffusion, underinvestment in productive capacity, and increased reliance on financialisation and speculative activity as outlets for surplus. These tendencies reinforce the “strategic failures” of the global economy identified earlier, including uneven development, fragile growth, and declining democratic accountability (Siddiqui, 2019).

Financialisation, which has intensified since the 1980s, refers to the expanding role of financial markets, institutions, and motives in both national and international economies. Shareholder value has increasingly dominated corporate strategies, reshaping relations between the financial sector and the rest of the economy. As Sweezy argues, financial capital has become increasingly detached from its supportive role in productive activity and has evolved into a relatively autonomous financial superstructure oriented towards speculative self-expansion, reversing the traditional relationship between the financial and real sectors of the economy (Sawyer, 2022).

The development of the credit system is critical in facilitating and shaping long-term investment patterns in the economy. The availability of funds to financial institutions, and their allocation to profitable sectors, significantly influences employment levels, income distribution, productivity, and overall GDP growth. Credit represents a form of capital that can overcome constraints on capital mobility imposed by fixed capital. Moreover, capital liberalisation associated with globalisation has profoundly altered both the movement of capital and the availability of financial resources within domestic economies and private sectors.

The expansion of the credit system also contributed to the emergence of joint-stock companies, which can be regarded as the institutional predecessors of modern multinational corporations (MNCs). These organisational forms provided an effective mechanism for mobilising large-scale financial resources, enabling firms to exploit economies of scale, increase profitability, and move toward greater concentration and monopolisation within specific industries.

The rise of monopolisation and the growing dominance of contemporary MNCs have important implications for the dynamics of capital accumulation. These trends have been associated with increasing income inequality and a declining share of income accruing to workers, contributing to economic stagnation through weakened aggregate demand and consumption. Monopoly capital is further characterised by the coexistence of collusion and rivalry, alongside a shift toward non-price forms of competition, such as expanded marketing efforts and intensified advertising. Such strategies reflect the capacity of monopolistic firms to rely on institutionally and politically supported market power in order to extract monopoly rents (Sawyer, 2022).

Technological innovation under monopoly capitalism exhibits an inherent bias toward scale-intensive production and centralised control over large-scale operations. Mergers and acquisitions frequently function as mechanisms to suppress potentially disruptive innovations that could promote deconcentration, while simultaneously facilitating the acquisition of intangible assets that further entrench monopolistic power. Despite these tendencies, competitive pressures do not disappear under monopoly capitalism; instead, the compulsion to reduce costs and innovate persists, often intensifying competition among workers and exacerbating labour market precarity.

Critics of monopoly capital theory have argued that the internationalisation of capital—by weakening US hegemony and increasing exposure to foreign trade and capital flows—would undermine monopolistic control. However, recent decades have instead been characterised by increasing concentration and centralisation of capital at the global level, with a shrinking number of corporations controlling a growing share of world markets (Siddiqui, 2025a).

III. Credit, Accumulation, Monopoly Capital, and Digital Dominance

The development of the credit system has been central to shaping long-term investment patterns and transforming the organisation of capitalism. By mobilising and allocating funds toward profitable sectors, credit profoundly influences employment, income distribution, productivity, and overall economic growth. As a form of capital, credit partially overcomes the immobility imposed by fixed capital, thereby accelerating accumulation and concentration. Capital liberalisation associated with globalisation has further intensified these dynamics by expanding cross-border capital flows and increasing the availability of financial resources to dominant firms within domestic economies.

At the same time, contemporary digital monopolies differ in important respects from both classical and early twentieth-century conceptions of monopoly. For classical economists, monopoly was typically understood as arising from production conditions and property rights that restricted the mobility of capital, rather than from oligopolistic competition among a small number of large firms. Adam Smith, for example, emphasised the role of monopoly privileges in sustaining mercantilist systems, particularly the capacity of chartered trading companies to extract extraordinary profits through exclusive trade routes in the late seventeenth century. Monopoly, in this view, was fundamentally linked to barriers to entry and the institutional restriction of competition.

Digital technology has further intensified these dynamics. Platform-based firms, characterised by strong network effects, data accumulation, and high barriers to entry, exhibit structural features that favour monopolisation or oligopolistic dominance. Unlike earlier forms of industrial concentration, digital monopolies derive power not only from control over production and distribution, but also from ownership of data infrastructures, algorithmic systems, and standards that govern market access. These firms increasingly function as gatekeepers, shaping the conditions under which other firms, workers, and consumers participate in economic activity.

By situating contemporary developments in production and digital technology within this broader theoretical context, the study seeks to illuminate the structural forces shaping the current phase of global capitalism. This approach provides the basis for assessing not only economic performance, but also the wider social and institutional implications of concentrated corporate power in the global economy.

Monopoly power in the contemporary economy has increasingly emerged through the strategic exercise of network dominance by digital platforms. This form of power challenges conventional approaches to monopoly that focus narrowly on firm size, market share, or concentration within clearly defined single markets. Platform-based firms operate across multiple, interdependent markets and leverage network effects, data accumulation, and ecosystem integration to entrench dominance. As a result, monopoly power is exercised through control over infrastructures, standards, and access conditions rather than through explicit price-setting alone, rendering traditional antitrust frameworks increasingly inadequate.

The rising returns associated with these forms of monopoly power did not initially take the form of sustained price increases, particularly in the period prior to the 1990s. In part, this reflected the continued presence of antitrust enforcement and the strategic deployment of low or zero prices to accelerate user adoption and reinforce network effects. Over time, however, dominant firms have converted network scale into durable market power, enabling new forms of rent extraction through data monetisation, preferential self-placement, exclusionary practices, and the enclosure of digital ecosystems. In recent decades, this economic power has been accompanied by a marked increase in political influence, as dominant corporations have acquired the capacity to shape regulatory agendas, influence public policy, and set de facto rules governing market participation.

These developments strongly resonate with earlier analyses of monopoly capitalism. Baran and Sweezy (1966) identified the emergence of large corporations and oligopolistic market structures as defining features of a distinct phase of capitalist development. Their analysis emphasised the tendency of surplus generation to outpace profitable investment opportunities, leading dominant firms to rely on market control and strategic behaviour rather than competitive efficiency. While their focus was primarily on industrial production, contemporary advances in information and digital technologies have intensified these tendencies by creating new mechanisms for consolidating and extending monopoly power. Digital platforms enhance economies of scale and scope while simultaneously increasing barriers to entry, thereby accelerating the concentration and centralisation of capital anticipated in earlier theoretical work.

This conception was later formalised within neoclassical economics, most notably by Marshall, who defined monopoly as a market structure characterised by a single seller exercising market power by restricting output and charging prices above competitive levels. While this framework became central to antitrust theory, it rests on assumptions—such as clearly defined markets, price competition, and observable output restrictions—that are increasingly ill-suited to analysing platform-based capitalism. Digital monopolies often expand output, lower prices, or provide services at zero monetary cost, while simultaneously exercising control over market access, data flows, and competitive conditions.

The political implications of these developments are substantial. The growing concentration of economic power in digital platforms has eroded the capacity of states to regulate markets effectively, particularly in areas such as competition policy, taxation, labour standards, and data governance. Through lobbying, regulatory capture, and the strategic exploitation of jurisdictional fragmentation, dominant firms are increasingly able to shape the institutional environment in which they operate. This reinforces asymmetries of power between capital and labour, incumbents and entrants, and firms and states, contributing to broader patterns of inequality and democratic deficit.

In this sense, contemporary digital monopolies represent not merely a new market structure, but a transformation in the relationship between economic power and political authority. Monopoly power is no longer confined to the sphere of production or exchange; it extends into the governance of economic life itself. Understanding these dynamics requires moving beyond narrow market-based definitions of monopoly towards a political-economic analysis that foregrounds power, institutions, and historical context. Such an approach is essential for assessing the systemic consequences of monopoly capitalism in its digital form and for evaluating the prospects for effective regulation and democratic control in the global economy.

The expansion of credit markets historically enabled the rise of joint-stock companies, which constituted the institutional foundations of contemporary multinational corporations (MNCs). These organisational forms facilitated the large-scale mobilisation of capital, allowing firms to exploit economies of scale, increase profitability, and consolidate market power. Over time, this process generated rising levels of industrial concentration and monopolisation, marking a structural transformation rather than a departure from competitive capitalism.

Monopoly power is no longer confined to the sphere of production or exchange; it extends into the governance of economic life itself.

The growing dominance of monopolistic and oligopolistic firms has had profound implications for capital accumulation and macroeconomic stability. Increasing concentration has been associated with rising income inequality and a declining labour share, contributing to weakened aggregate demand and tendencies toward economic stagnation. Monopoly capital is characterised not by the absence of competition, but by a specific configuration of rivalry and collusion, alongside a shift from price competition to non-price strategies such as marketing, branding, and advertising. These strategies rely on institutionally supported market power and enable firms to extract monopoly rents insulated from competitive pressures.

Technological change under monopoly capitalism exhibits a systematic bias toward scale-intensive production and centralised control. Innovation is increasingly oriented toward reinforcing dominant positions rather than fostering competitive entry. Mergers and acquisitions play a critical role in this process, frequently functioning to neutralise potentially disruptive innovations and acquire intangible assets that deepen monopolistic control. While cost reduction and innovation remain imperatives under monopoly capitalism, competitive pressures are displaced onto labour, intensifying worker competition and exacerbating precarity.

In this sense, contemporary monopoly capitalism represents not a deviation from competitive capitalism, but its logical development under conditions of advanced accumulation, globalisation, and digitalisation. Understanding this transformation requires moving beyond narrow antitrust frameworks toward a structural analysis of power, accumulation, and institutional control.

Digital capitalism represents the most advanced expression of these dynamics. Digital monopolies are fundamentally grounded in property rights over intangible capital, including proprietary technologies, data, intellectual property, and branding. Control over these assets enables dominant firms to construct formidable barriers to entry and restrict capital mobility. Between 2018 and 2023, the intangible asset values of Amazon, Google, and Facebook increased by more than 74 per cent, with intangible assets accounting for nearly 87 per cent of their total asset value. Ownership of such assets positions these firms as critical gatekeepers of the digital infrastructures that underpin information flows, communication systems, and commercial activity.

At the global level, Google dominates internet search, Amazon commands e-commerce and cloud-based business services, and Facebook controls key social media platforms. Together, these corporations reached a combined market capitalisation exceeding $3.7 trillion in 2024. Their dominance has been further consolidated through extensive merger and acquisition activity. Over the past two decades, Google has acquired more than 260 companies, Amazon over 100, and Facebook 63 firms since its founding in 2004. These acquisitions reflect both strategic expansion into new markets and systematic efforts to undermine potential competition. High-profile cases such as Facebook’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp and Amazon’s purchase of Zappos exemplify how corporate concentration is actively reinforced through institutional and financial mechanisms.

Taken together, these developments illustrate how monopoly capitalism in its digital form is sustained through the interaction of credit systems, intangible property rights, and corporate consolidation, generating far-reaching economic and political consequences in the contemporary global economy. At the global level, there has been a pronounced increase in concentration across the communications, information technology (IT), and media industries, alongside significant merger and consortium activity in formerly public utilities that have undergone privatisation. While these sectors are often portrayed as having been opened to intensified global competition through rapid technological change, mounting evidence suggests that a small number of large corporations are instead emerging as dominant actors at the global scale.

In particular, the provision and servicing of global IT networks increasingly appears to be controlled by only two or three major service providers operating across multiple industries. This concentration reflects not only technological advantages but also strategic control over standards, platforms, and complementary services. Microsoft’s long-standing dominance in software and computer operating systems, for example, has been a persistent source of concern for both US and EU antitrust authorities. Similarly, Google’s near-monopoly position in global internet search has raised significant regulatory and competitive concerns, highlighting the limits of existing competition frameworks in addressing platform-based market power (Siddiqui, 2025b).

Significant consolidation has also occurred within telecommunications, where global consortia and strategic alliances emerged prominently from the late 1990s onwards. This period witnessed a wave of mergers and cross-border partnerships involving the world’s largest telecommunications firms, reinforcing concentration at both national and international levels. These developments are particularly noteworthy given that information and communication technologies were initially regarded as forces capable of undermining monopoly power by lowering entry barriers and decentralising production. Instead, technological change has largely been absorbed into existing structures of accumulation, reinforcing monopolistic control rather than dissolving it.

The contemporary global economy is increasingly characterised by high levels of corporate concentration, the dominance of multinational corporations (MNCs), and the growing importance of digital platforms. While mainstream economic perspectives often treat monopoly power as an aberration from competitive markets, this article argues that monopoly capitalism represents a systematic outcome of capitalist development itself. In particular, the interaction between credit systems, globalisation, and intangible capital has reshaped the organisation of production and competition, giving rise to new forms of monopoly power with far-reaching economic and political consequences.

The development of the credit system has played a central role in shaping long-term investment patterns and transforming capitalist accumulation. By mobilising savings and directing funds toward profitable sectors, credit influences employment, income distribution, productivity, and overall economic growth. As a form of capital, credit partially overcomes the immobility imposed by fixed capital, accelerating accumulation and enabling the concentration of economic power.

Capital liberalisation associated with globalisation has further intensified these processes by facilitating cross-border capital flows and expanding access to financial resources for large firms. Historically, the expansion of credit markets enabled the emergence of joint-stock companies, which provided the organisational foundations for modern MNCs. These firms were able to mobilise large volumes of capital, exploit economies of scale, and consolidate market power across national boundaries.

The rise of monopolisation should be understood as a structural transformation of capitalism rather than a departure from competition. Increasing concentration has been associated with rising income inequality and a declining labour share, contributing to weakened aggregate demand and tendencies toward economic stagnation (Siddiqui, 2018). Monopoly capital is characterised by a specific configuration of rivalry and collusion, alongside a shift from price competition to non-price strategies such as branding, marketing, and advertising.

Under monopoly capitalism, technological innovation is increasingly oriented toward reinforcing dominant market positions rather than facilitating competitive entry. Mergers and acquisitions serve as key mechanisms in this process, frequently neutralising potentially disruptive innovations and consolidating control over strategic assets. While the imperative to reduce costs and innovate persists, competitive pressures are increasingly displaced onto labour, intensifying worker competition and labour market precarity.

Digital capitalism represents the most advanced expression of monopoly capitalism. Digital monopolies are grounded in property rights over intangible capital, including proprietary technologies, data, intellectual property, and branding. Control over these assets enables dominant firms to construct formidable barriers to entry and restrict capital mobility.

Between 2018 and 2023, the intangible asset values of Amazon, Google, and Facebook increased by more than 74 per cent, with intangible assets accounting for nearly 87 per cent of their total asset value. Ownership of such assets positions these firms as critical gatekeepers of digital infrastructures underpinning information flows, communication systems, and commercial activity. At the global level, Google dominates internet search, Amazon controls large segments of e-commerce and cloud services, and Facebook exercises substantial power over social media ecosystems.

These positions have been reinforced through extensive merger and acquisition activity. Over the past two decades, Google has acquired more than 260 companies, Amazon over 100, and Facebook 63 firms since its founding in 2004. High-profile acquisitions such as Facebook’s purchases of Instagram and WhatsApp and Amazon’s acquisition of Zappos illustrate how corporate concentration is actively reproduced through institutional and financial mechanisms.

Beyond digital platforms, there has been growing concentration across communications, information technology (IT), and media industries, alongside significant merger and consortium activity in formerly public utilities following privatisation. Although these sectors are often portrayed as having been opened to intensified competition through technological change, evidence suggests that a small number of global corporations dominate key markets.

The servicing of global IT networks increasingly appears to be controlled by only two or three major providers, reflecting strategic control over standards and infrastructures. Microsoft’s long-standing dominance in software and operating systems has repeatedly attracted scrutiny from US and EU antitrust authorities, while concerns over Google’s near-monopoly in internet search underscore the limitations of existing regulatory frameworks.

Similarly, telecommunications have experienced substantial consolidation since the late 1990s, marked by mergers and strategic alliances among the world’s largest firms. These developments are particularly significant given early expectations that information and communication technologies would erode monopoly power. Instead, technological change has largely reinforced existing structures of accumulation and control.

From a political-economy perspective, the central issue is not simply market concentration but the structural control exercised by large corporations over the conditions of production and exchange. In digital sectors, this control is exercised through ownership of platforms, data infrastructures, and technological ecosystems that function as essential inputs for other firms. Network effects, interoperability constraints, and user lock-in generate self-reinforcing barriers to entry, allowing incumbent firms to maintain dominance even in the absence of explicit collusion or price increases. These mechanisms enable firms to appropriate rents not only from consumers but also from dependent producers, advertisers, and workers operating within platform-controlled environments.

Vasudevan (2022) argues that the rise of modern corporations in the twentieth century harnessed economies of scale and network externalities in ways characteristic of natural monopolies, strengthening capitalism’s capacity to organise and control production while accelerating capital mobility and concentration. The liberalisation of international capital markets extended this process globally, enabling transnational corporations to extract monopoly rents. He further contends that the geographical flexibility of transnational production has weakened organised labour by allowing capital to evade national constraints, contributing to the global decline in labour’s income share since the 1980s and reflecting capital’s enhanced monopoly power over labour (Vasudevan, 2022:1277).

Critics of monopoly capital theory have argued that the internationalisation of capital—by weakening US hegemony and increasing exposure to global trade and capital flows—would reduce monopolistic power. However, recent developments point to the opposite outcome: rising global concentration and centralisation of capital, with a shrinking number of corporations controlling an increasing share of world markets.

Monopoly capitalism displays a persistent tendency towards monopolisation, as firms adopt strategic behaviour to limit competition and deter entry. Cowling and Tomlinson highlight the implications of this corporate power for income distribution and realisation crises, arguing that contemporary capitalism is dominated by oligopolies with substantial market power. The degree of monopoly reflects market concentration, collusion, and demand elasticity, which large firms can influence through advertising and product differentiation, thereby weakening competitive pressures (Cowling and Tomlinson, 2005).

Sawyer (2022:1226) argues that the degree of monopoly provides a framework for understanding income distribution in which power plays a central role, extending beyond product markets to encompass capital’s power over labour. Surplus is divided between profits and managerial rewards. In contrast, neoliberal doctrine presents markets as inherently beneficial, emphasising competition, incentives, deregulation, and the extension of market mechanisms into previously non-market domains. Drawing on Austrian and neoclassical economics, neoliberalism assumes that competitive markets generate efficient and Pareto-optimal outcomes.

IV. Monopoly Power, Competition, and Democracy

The rise of monopolisation has profound implications for the nature of competition and strategic rivalry under contemporary capitalism. Within the industrial economics literature, monopolised and oligopolistic markets are typically characterised by a combination of strategic entry deterrence, tacit or explicit collusion, and persistent price levels above those predicted under competitive conditions. As prices increasingly diverge from competitive benchmarks, monopoly power becomes structurally embedded rather than episodic. These dynamics have significant implications for income distribution between capital and labour and, ultimately, for macroeconomic performance.

Monopolisation tends to raise the aggregate profit share, often at the expense of wages. In practice, a substantial portion of these profits may be absorbed within corporate hierarchies through executive compensation, managerial bonuses, and administrative expenditures, rather than being translated into productive investment. The resulting decline in the wage share contributes to weakened aggregate demand, reinforcing stagnations tendencies identified in monopoly capital and post-Keynesian traditions (Baran and Sweezy, 1966; Kalecki, 1971).

Beyond its economic effects, the expansion of monopoly power raises fundamental questions regarding the compatibility of democracy and freedom within systems of monopoly capitalism. As demonstrated throughout this article, the global economy is increasingly dominated by large transnational corporations whose strategic interests often diverge from broader social and democratic objectives. The concentration of economic power enables these firms to exert disproportionate influence over political institutions, regulatory frameworks, and public discourse, frequently marginalising alternative voices and constraining democratic participation. In this sense, the retreat of democracy has accompanied the rise of corporate concentration.

However, this erosion of democracy should not be understood as a necessary condition for economic efficiency. Contrary to the notion of a trade-off between democracy and performance, greater substantive democracy—understood as enhanced participation, accountability, and collective control over economic decision-making—may contribute to superior economic outcomes. More democratic institutional arrangements can restrain rent extraction, redirect surplus toward socially productive uses, and support more inclusive and stable patterns of growth. From this perspective, the tension between monopoly power and democracy reflects not an efficiency requirement, but a structural feature of advanced capitalism.

Empirical evidence reinforces these claims. Market concentration in advanced economies has increased markedly over the past two decades, particularly within specific industries. Data from the OECD and IMF point to a general shift toward more concentrated market structures, implying rising market power among leading firms. This trend is evident across major advanced economies, including the US, the UK, Japan, and other European countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. Importantly, the increase in concentration has not been uniform across sectors. Industries such as general merchandise retailing, information goods, digital technologies, pharmaceuticals, and banking exhibit especially high and rising concentration ratios.

The business concentration is starkly evident in the US. The telecommunications sector, for instance, is dominated by just four major players, with AT&T and Verizon alone controlling approximately 70 percent of the market. Furthermore, the pinnacle of American capitalism reveals a striking trend toward digital monopoly. The three most valuable companies in the nation are all digital giants—relatively new entities that have achieved extraordinary market dominance. In fact, five of the top eight and twelve of the top thirty-two most valuable U.S. companies are digital powerhouses. Their names are familiar: Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta (Facebook), and Cisco. And, of course, legacy telecom titans like AT&T and Verizon remain firmly entrenched in this elite group, beneficiaries of the same system.

While accounting for international trade can reduce measured concentration in certain manufacturing industries—since import competition expands the effective market—many nationally oriented sectors remain highly concentrated. Utilities, telecommunications, and a range of service industries continue to exhibit oligopolistic or monopolistic structures and often require regulatory intervention. Table 1 indicates the market concentration ratios and trends among some advanced economies for 2024-2025. Market concentration is commonly measured using the N-firm concentration ratio, such as the combined market share of the four or five largest firms (CR4 or CR5), or the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). A CR4 exceeding 40 per cent is generally indicative of oligopolistic market structures, highlighting the prevalence of concentrated economic power in contemporary advanced economies.

Table 1: Concentration Ratios and Trends Among Selected Economies for 2024-2025.

Economy/Region  Industry Example Concentration (Approx) Trend
UK Mortgage Lending (2023) CR4: 50.3% Stable/Slight Increase
UK Supermarkets CR5: 74.6% (2025 est.) Increasing (driven by discounters)
US Domestic Airlines (2024) CR4: 68% High Concentration
US Book Stores (2023) CR4: 71% Sharp Increase since 1990s
European Union Average

(all industries)

Share of high concentration industries doubled (16% to 37%) Substantial Increase (since 1998)

Table 2: Five Firm Concentration Ratio of UK’s Supermarkets, 2024-2025 (%).

1. Tesco 28.3
2. Sainsbury’s 15.8
3. Asda 11.6
4. Aldi 10.6
5. Lidl 8.3
Total Five Firm Concentration Ratio of UK’s Supermarkets  74.6

Figure 1: Market Share in UK’s Supermarkets in 2024-2025.

Figure 1: Market Share in UK’s Supermarkets in 2024-2025.

Taken together, these developments underscore that monopoly capitalism reshapes not only market competition, but also income distribution, democratic governance, and macroeconomic stability. Addressing these challenges therefore requires moving beyond narrow antitrust approaches toward a broader political-economy framework capable of confronting the structural concentration of economic and political power.

Concentration ratios measure the proportion of total market output or sales accounted for by the largest firms within an industry. Commonly used indicators include the three-firm concentration ratio (CR3) and the five-firm concentration ratio (CR5), which represent the combined market share of the three or five largest firms, respectively. Concentration ratios are widely employed to assess market structure and the degree of competitiveness within an industry. Figure 1 shows market concertation of only 5 monopolies has a huge concentration of market share in the UK markets (also see Table 2). Higher concentration ratios indicate greater market power among leading firms and a reduced intensity of competition. For example, markets are typically characterised as oligopolistic when the five-firm concentration ratio exceeds 50 per cent, signalling that a small number of firms dominate a substantial share of total market activity.

Kwon, Ma, and Zimmermann (2024) provide a long-run analysis of business concentration in the US, documenting a steady increase in the shares of assets, sales, and net income accruing to the largest firms since the early twentieth century. Using official data on the size distribution of US corporations, Figure 2 illustrates aggregate concentration trends among the largest firms over the period 1918–2018.

Figure 2 shows the shares of the top 1 percent of US corporations on the left panel and the top 0.1 percent on the right. The blue, red, and green lines represent shares of assets, sales, and net income, respectively. Both panels reveal a pronounced upward trend in concentration. Notably, the asset share of the top 1 percent increased by 27 percentage points between 1931 and 2018, reaching 97 percent, while the asset share of the top 0.1 percent rose even more rapidly. Overall, the evidence points to a sustained rise in business concentration in the US economy over the past century (Kwon, et al, 2024).

Figure 2: The Aggregate Concentration Trends among the Largest US Corporations, 1918-2018.

Figure 2: The Aggregate Concentration Trends among the Largest US Corporations, 1918-2018.

The IMF (2021) study underscores these trends, noting that corporate market power has risen in advanced economies and is likely to increase further following pandemic-related bankruptcies. Rising concentration and higher price markups—up roughly one-third—have doubled profitability and are concentrated among a small group of dominant firms. This persistent market power is accompanied by declining business dynamism, including a lower share of activity by young firms and reduced dispersion of growth rates. While not the sole driver of reduced dynamism, increasing corporate power has contributed to these patterns and has moderate negative effects on growth, investment, innovation, and the labour income share.

Taken together, these developments illustrate that monopoly capitalism reshapes not only market structures, but also income distribution, democratic governance, and macroeconomic stability. Addressing these challenges requires moving beyond narrow antitrust approaches toward a structural political-economy framework capable of confronting concentrated corporate power in the contemporary global economy (IMF, 2021).

V. Rise of Monopolies since Globalisation and Radical Critiques

Globalisation and the expansion of international competition initially led many economists to consider monopoly power a declining concern. By the mid-1980s, some observers argued that aggregate concentration in the US economy was rising only slowly, and that industries such as US automakers “surely have far less monopoly power than they did twenty years ago” (Baran and Sweezy, 1966). This perception contributed to decreased attention to monopoly capital in both mainstream and radical economic debates.

However, contemporary confusion surrounding monopoly stems less from theoretical disputes than from an underestimation of globalization’s transformative impact. Influential Marxian political economists—including Paul Sweezy, David Harvey, Dominique Lévy, and Prabhat Patnaik—have explicitly centred globalization and the internationalization of production in their analyses of economic concentration. This focus distinguishes their work from earlier generations of Marxian theorists by directly linking monopoly power to transnational structures.

Building on this foundation, contemporary Marxist economists have continued to advance the monopoly capital framework. Magdoff, for instance, analysed how stagnation under monopoly capitalism facilitated the late-twentieth-century shift toward financialization and the emergence of a monopoly-finance regime. He emphasized that transnational production was reconfiguring the nature of monopolistic rivalry, accelerating the concentration and centralization of capital globally. As Magdoff (1978) observed: “The very process of concentration and centralization of capital is spurred by competition and results in intensifying the struggle among separate aggregates of capital, albeit on a different scale and with altered strategies.”

This perspective underscores that globalization has not rendered the concept of monopoly capital obsolete; rather, it has fundamentally transformed the latter’s operational scale and competitive dynamics. Consequently, it demands renewed analytical focus on the intertwined phenomena of corporate concentration, financialization, and transnational monopolistic competition.

Keith Cowling (1982) extended the monopoly capital framework by highlighting the internationalisation of oligopolies. He argued that global corporate elites formed “smaller, tighter, international oligopoly groups” in which attempts by individual firms to expand market share—through mechanisms such as tariff reductions—would be countered by immediate responses from competitors, sustaining monopoly power in each country. Cowling emphasised that free trade facilitated the growing dominance of transnational corporations, shifting profits away from global labour and smaller firms. Moreover, the expansion of international firms meant that stagnation tendencies in one country were quickly transmitted globally, amplifying the systemic effects of monopoly capitalism.

The post-1980s phase of monopoly capitalism is best described as global monopoly-finance capital, in which economic concentration, financialisation, and transnational production intersect. Samir Amin (2018) highlighted the political and social implications of this phase: the intertwining of oligopolistic capitalism, the political power of oligarchies, financialisation, US hegemony, militarised globalisation, declining democracy, and resource plunder, particularly at the expense of the Global South (Siddiqui, 2025c).

While feudalism and slavery function through overt mechanisms of domination, capitalism has demonstrated a unique capacity for legitimation by framing corporate profit imperatives as vehicles for individual equality and social advancement. It was the seminal contribution of Karl Marx, in Capital, to pierce this illusion. He identified the law of surplus value, revealing that behind the apparent freedom and equity of the market lies the hidden abode of production. There, labourers are compelled to work far beyond the time required to reproduce the value of their wages, generating the fundamental profit upon which the system depends (Amin, 2018).

The task of extending Marx’s critique to contemporary global structures was taken up by Samir Amin. Synthesizing the work of radical political economists—including Michal Kalecki, Josef Steindl, Paul Baran, and Paul Sweezy—Amin reframed Marxian theory for the age of modern imperialism. Central to his analysis is the concept of “imperialist rent,” accrued through the systemic wage differential between the Global North and the Global South for equivalent labour. This disparity is not incidental but structural, underpinning a global system of oligopolistic capitalism in which finance capital commands worldwide production and distribution. (Siddiqui, 2022).

Samir Amin (2018) crucially advanced the theory of economic surplus developed by Baran and Sweezy, reframing it within a globally monopolized system. In his analysis, Marx’s foundational “law of value” is superseded by a “law of globalized value,” a systemic mechanism that institutionalizes the super-exploitation of peripheral labour. His volume, Modern Imperialism, Monopoly Finance Capital, and Marx’s Law of Value, provides a comprehensive examination of this theoretical evolution, constituting an indispensable resource for scholars engaged with contemporary Marxian political economy and its critiques of global capitalism.

Long before its consequences became widely acknowledged, Marxist political economists provided early and rigorous documentation of the inequalities generated by neoliberalism, emphasizing the constitutive roles of financialisation and debt. Advancing this critique requires a renewed focus on monopoly power as a crucial analytical step. It is through the lens of monopoly that we can best understand the profound concentration of economic and political power, persistent stagnation, and the structural drivers of twenty-first-century capitalism (Siddiqui, 2023).

Consequently, analysing the concentration of capital and monopoly power is essential—not only for explaining economic phenomena like stagnation and financialization, but also for comprehending contemporary geopolitical structures and entrenched global inequalities. The struggle for substantive democracy and social justice is inextricably linked to confronting the political power of a corporate plutocracy that commands the world’s largest firms. For any transformative political project, therefore, effectively articulating this structural reality to those impacted by corporate dominance is central to maintaining analytical relevance and advancing a credible agenda for change.

VI. Conclusion

Monopoly capitalism represents a structural and recurrent feature of advanced capitalism, intensified by the converging forces of globalisation, financialisation, and digitalisation. The concentration of economic power within a handful of transnational corporations has fundamentally reshaped competition, labour relations, and macroeconomic stability. Through rising market concentration, persistent price markups, and the dominance of intangible assets, these firms extract monopoly rents, suppress the wage share, and constrain productive innovation—thereby reproducing the stagnationist tendencies long theorised by Baran and Sweezy.

The concentration of economic power within a handful of transnational corporations has fundamentally reshaped competition, labour relations, and macroeconomic stability.

As Marxist analysis underscores, this monopoly power is not merely a market inefficiency but a systemic outcome of capital accumulation, wherein competition paradoxically drives the concentration and centralisation of capital. This process systematically subordinates social needs to the logic of profit. The internationalisation of monopoly capital globalises these dynamics, exporting stagnation and inequality while deepening the structural divide between labour and capital. This trajectory finds its most evolved manifestation in digital monopoly-finance capital, which merges corporate dominance with financialisation, the extractive control of data and platforms, and a consequent erosion of democratic accountability.

These developments are sustained by an interrelated system of credit, intangible property rights, and corporate consolidation. Rather than undermining monopoly, globalisation and digitalisation have reinforced corporate dominance by intensifying concentration. The resulting in rising inequality, weakened aggregate demand, and heightened labour precarity that cannot be remedied by narrow antitrust frameworks alone, necessitating a structural political-economy approach.

In tracing the evolution from national industrial concentration to today’s globalised digital-financial monopolies, this study demonstrates how financialisation and the control of intangible assets exacerbate inequality, suppress competition, and weaken democracy. Understanding this system is therefore indispensable for interrogating the political foundations of twenty-first-century capitalism. Consequently, any meaningful project of democratic transformation must confront the concentrated power of global monopolies and the structural mechanisms that reproduce their dominance.

About the Author

Dr. Kalim Siddiqui is an economist specializing in International Political Economy, Development Economics, Trade and Economic Policy. Since 1989, he has been teaching economics at various universities in Norway and the UK. Dr. Siddiqui’s research interests encompass a wide range of topics, including political economy, international trade, and economic history, South Asia, and emerging economies. He has presented papers at international conferences across numerous countries, reflecting his global engagement in the field. His scholarly pursuits span six broad domains: Political Economy, Development Economics, Economic History, Economic Policy, Globalization, and International Trade. Dr. Siddiqui has made significant contributions to research in areas such as trade policy, globalization, and political economy. His work has been published in chapters of edited books and articles published in peer-reviewed journals. For inquiries, Dr. Siddiqui can be reached at: [email protected]

References

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  4. IMF (2021) Rising Corporate Market Power: Emerging Policy Issues, March, IMF.
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The Venezuelan Battleground: US Regime Change V. Chinese Economic Cooperation

By Dr. Dan Steinbock

The U.S. kidnapping of President Maduro represent one of the worst violations of international law by a major power in decades. It also reflects the role of Venezuela as a battleground of U.S. and Chinese interests.

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, Venezuela’s President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were dragged from their bedroom and transported to New York. Having been months in-the-making behind the back of the U.S. Congress, the military raid involved more than 150 aircraft and drones, likely causing tens of deaths and far more injured.

Concurrently, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment against Maduro and his wife on several serious narco-terrorism, cocaine and guns conspiracy charges.

Critics of the U.S. action, including the foreign ministries of China, France, Mexico, and Russia, have cited violations of key UN Charter principles.

In view of the Venezuelan government, it was an “imperialist attack.” In view of the international community, it was widely condemned as a violation of international law, specifically the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state. Critics of the U.S. action, including the foreign ministries of China, France, Mexico, and Russia, have cited violations of key UN Charter principles.

Neither the regime change operation nor the charges could disguise the cold reality that, as President Trump acknowledged, what the U.S. really wants is to tap Venezuelan oil reserves   

US effort to exploit untapped reserves          

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves with some 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of global reserves. Despite the sizeable reserves, Caracas produced barely 0.8% of total global crude oil still in 2023.

Since Venezuelan economy heavily relies on oil, U.S. sanctions have sought to undermine the efforts by the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) to fund government revenue.

However, thanks to eased sanctions by the Biden administration, there were some promising signs in the Venezuelan economy in the past year or two. Nonetheless, due to the escalatory measures by the U.S., Venezuela’s oil production has collapsed from over 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 1 million bpd or less, due to lack of investment, decaying infrastructure and mismanagement. 

In the early 2020s, for the first time in a decade, Venezuela’s crude oil production increased, thanks to assistance from Iran and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

As a result of two decades of increasing economic coercion by the U.S. government and the escalation of maximum pressure by the Trump administrations, Venezuela’s economy is today highly fragile. Hence, the timing of the attack.

It was fostered by the new U.S. national security strategy (NSS) legitimizing America’s greater control of the Western Hemisphere.

China as Caracas’ prime buyer

Prior to the U.S.-imposed sanctions on Venezuela, the U.S. was the largest importer of Venezuela’s crude oil. The heavy crude oil is well suited for U.S. refineries, particularly those along the Gulf Coast. Most of the remaining crude oil was destined for India, China, and Europe.

But since the 2019 sanctions, a significant portion of Venezuela’s crude oil exports has been part of oil-for-loans arrangements. As of 2023, China received 68% of Venezuela’s crude oil exports. Only 23% went to the U.S.

Venezuela’s crude oil exports by region and country, 2023

Venezuela’s crude oil exports by region and country, 2023
Source: Data from EIA 

U.S. intervention in Venezuela is not only in line with its attempt to ensure privileged access to the country’s energy for decades to come. It is also fueled by the effort to neutralize China’s growing influence in the region, secure access to Venezuela’s vast oil and critical mineral reserves, including rare earths.

Both powers see Venezuela’s massive energy resources and strategic location as crucial to global power dynamics. The difference is that China has been willing to play by the rules of the international law, which the US administrations have violated with unilateral sanctions and the Trump administration chose to undermine.

The U.S. rogue raid took the prior bilateral friction in Panama to another, far more violent magnitude.

The perception of conflicting interests             

U.S. intervention was defined by several interests. A primary driver is stopping Beijing from filling the economic vacuum left by U.S. sanctions and solidifying its strategic ties with Caracas. In turn, China seeks to secure stable oil shipments, occasionally through large loans-for-oil deals, to fuel its economy and reduce reliance on other sources.

Starting in 2007, former Venezuela President Hugo Chavez agreed to $50 billion in credit lines and loan-for-oil deals with China. A decade ago, rout in oil prices and declining output from Venezuelan fields compelled Caracas to ask for grace periods on debt owed to China. In the process, China has become the main destination to these oil exports. As Venezuela owes some $10 billion to China, Beijing has an interest to ensure the repayment of these loans through a stable flow of oil, even if Venezuela is not a top-ten supplier of Chinese crude overall.

In the Trump administration’s view, Venezuela’s huge proven oil reserves, plus significant gold, rare earths, and critical minerals are vital to make America great again. The collateral damage is Venezuela’s problem and China’s headache.

With deepened economic ties through infrastructure and resource extraction, China has gained influence in the region. In Beijing, this is not seen as a win-lose game. After all, Washington has long had a substantial presence in East and Southeast Asia.

But unlike the U.S., China is disinclined to raid presidents and their wives to undermine regimes.

Bullying vs partnering     

Loyal to its new national security strategy, the Trump administration been both able and willing to reassert U.S. dominance in Latin America, as in the imperialist 19th century. These strategic objectives are readily framed with humanitarian and security pretexts addressing drug trafficking, terrorism, and human rights abuses under the Maduro government, effectively to legitimize the intervention.

In Beijing’s view, 19th century imperialism is the kind of dark history that should have no role in the 21st century multipolar world. After all, China suffered a century of colonial humiliation, precisely as a result of such illicit actions.

Securing stable oil shipments is vital to its continental economy which is still developing. Accordingly, China has supported the Maduro government to maintain its investment and access to resources, viewing it as an “all-weather” ally.

That’s why Beijing strongly opposes U.S. military action, condemning it as a violation of sovereignty and an infringement on international law.

In Washington’s view, China is positioning itself as a defender of state rights against U.S. “bullying.” But that’s not the case. Rather, the Trump White House has undermined those very rights by bullying its Latin American neighbors with economic coercion and lethal firepower.

Untenable status quo      

After its intervention, the Trump administration wants American oil companies to invest billions in rehabilitating Venezuela’s dilapidated oil infrastructure and production, hoping this would stabilize global energy prices and create opportunities for U.S. businesses.

Yet, the Trump administration is acting in a way that undermines the peace and stability that are the prerequisites for long-term investment, with potential price destabilization that is penalizing U.S. opportunities in the region.

The world economy and the international community are in a potentially perilous crossroads.

China has strongly condemned the U.S. intervention as an act of “hegemonic” interference and a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty, advocating a more inclusive multipolar world order. This is a quest that’s strongly supported by the populous economies of the Global South, which believe in principles of sovereignty, economic cooperation, and opposition to Western interventionism.

Today, Venezuela is a battleground in the broader struggle against U.S.-led unipolarity. Like China, the Global South favors multilateral solutions through international bodies like the UN, in contrast to unilateral military action. Both advocate for a world order based on international law rather than a Darwinian “law of the strongest.”

The world economy and the international community are in a potentially perilous crossroads. Effectively, the Trump administration is forcing the world states to choose – not between the United States and China, but between international law and illicit plunder by the mightiest military power.

The original version was published by China-US Focus (US/Hong Kong) on January 7, 2026.

About the Author

Dr Dan SteinbockDr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

Trump Explores Greenland Acquisition, Military Option Not Off Table

The White House confirmed Tuesday that President Donald Trump is “discussing a range of options” to acquire Greenland, signaling that U.S. military involvement remains a possibility.

Trump’s renewed focus comes after the United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, reflecting an expansionist foreign policy approach that prioritizes strategic territories and resources.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region.” She added that “utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that the administration is seriously considering purchasing Greenland, while downplaying immediate military intervention. The U.S. State Department recently analyzed Greenland’s untapped resources, including rare earth minerals, but noted the extreme costs and logistical challenges involved due to harsh weather and limited infrastructure.

Trump has emphasized the national security value of Greenland and questioned Denmark’s ability to manage the territory. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. Senior aide Stephen Miller reinforced that nobody would challenge the United States militarily over Greenland and questioned Denmark’s claim to the island.

European leaders responded by affirming Denmark’s sovereignty and calling for collective Arctic security under NATO. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that a U.S. military move could jeopardize the alliance. Greenland has requested a meeting with Rubio to address the renewed U.S. interest.

Trump’s attention to Greenland is long-standing. Following his 2024 election victory, he revived earlier proposals to purchase the 836,000-square-mile island rich in oil, gas and rare earth minerals. Last March, he suggested in a congressional speech, “I think we’re going to get it. One way or the other, we’re going to get it.”

Vice President JD Vance visited Greenland in March, despite local resistance, arguing that the island was vulnerable and that the United States had “no other option” than to increase its presence.

The administration’s approach has drawn bipartisan criticism. Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego warned he will introduce a resolution to prevent a U.S. invasion. Republican Rep. Don Bacon called the proposal “stupid” and criticized any coercive action against a NATO ally. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis reiterated Denmark’s strategic importance and warned that pressuring an ally undermines principles of self-determination and NATO’s credibility.

The unfolding debate highlights tensions between U.S. strategic ambitions and international norms, as Greenland’s resources and location continue to attract Washington’s attention.

Related Readings:

Flags of USA and Denmark

Houses in a neighborhood in Nuuk Greenland st.

The Skeptics Missed The Turn In AI

By Dr. Gleb Tsipursky

Walk the halls of a typical Fortune 1000 and you’ll see AI-generated drafts, forecasts, and code reviews sliding into workflows with little fanfare. That pattern shows up in the year-three executive summary of Wharton Human-AI Research and GBK Collective, which tracks mainstream use, tighter guardrails, and budgets moving to proven programs in 2025. External benchmarks echo the turn, from McKinsey’s 2024 global survey documenting regular generative AI use to Stanford’s 2025 AI Index showing broadening business engagement.

Enterprise Adoption Is Now A Fact

Three years of Wharton-GBK data trace a clear arc from exploration to everyday work. The study’s 2025 findings describe daily use as common, with IT and procurement leading while adoption spreads across HR, legal, finance, and operations. The same report notes a U.S. executive sample of roughly 800 leaders surveyed between June 26 and July 11, 2025, reinforcing that these are decision makers inside large enterprises. This year, the report found 82% use Gen AI at least weekly (+10pp YoY), and 46% (+17pp YoY) daily. Moreover, three out of four leaders described positive returns on Gen AI investments.

Executives are not treating AI like a toy anymore; they are instrumenting it.

This picture holds beyond this survey. IBM’s Global AI Adoption Index found that by December 2023, 42% of enterprise respondents had actively deployed AI and another cohort was in active exploration, a pattern consistent with mainstreaming rather than novelty. McKinsey’s 2024 State of AI reported regular generative AI use by 65% of organizations and cited value concentrations in software, customer operations, and marketing. Stanford’s 2025 AI Indexadds macro context on rising use and falling inference costs, which helps explain why adoption keeps climbing inside firms.

ROI Discipline Is Taking Hold

Executives are not treating AI like a toy anymore; they are instrumenting it. Wharton’s 2025 study highlights a decisive turn toward measurement, with most firms tying initiatives to business metrics and roughly three in four already seeing positive returns. Budgets follow accountability: 88% expect to increase generative AI spend over the next 12 months, and 62% anticipate double-digit increases, with more dollars shifting from pilots to programs that clear performance thresholds. KPMG’s August 2024 survey of billion-dollar enterprises backs this confidence, with 78% of leaders expecting positive ROI within one to three years.

The strongest evidence for usefulness comes from field data. A large-scale study across more than five thousand support agents found that access to a generative assistant increased resolved issues per hour by about 15% on average, with the biggest lifts for less-experienced workers. In software, a controlled experiment showed developers with an AI pair programmer finished a coding task 55.8% faster than the control group. These results align with where Wharton’s study sees repeated wins: analysis, summarization, document workflows, and coding. The practical lesson is simple. Measure throughput, quality, and cycle time; scale what clears your hurdle rate; and stop what doesn’t.

This discipline is reshaping how companies build. Wharton reports rising allocations to internal R&D and a shift toward domain-tuned capabilities designed for a firm’s data, guardrails, and processes in 2025’s “accountable acceleration” phase. The pattern matches Deloitte’s ongoing State of Generative AI, which ties outperformance to reworked workflows, strong governance, and targeted skilling rather than tool nostalgia. Leaders who treat AI as an operating improvement, not a stunt, are already harvesting repeatable gains.

Skepticism Flags Risks, Not Futility

Skeptics are not wrong to warn about poor execution. Boston Consulting Group’s 2025 analysis finds only 5% of firms achieving material value at scale while 60% report little impact, a reminder that buying tools is not the same as redesigning work. Gartner expects that more than 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by 2027 for weak business cases, high costs, or poor risk management. These cautions sharpen priorities: fewer vanity demos, more outcome-based design.

Read alongside those warnings, the Wharton study undercuts blanket pessimism. It documents a cohort of leaders moving past hype: as I tell my clients who I help adopt AI, success depends on embedding ROI metrics, tightening guardrails, and funding internal capabilities where they matter most. The OECD’s cross-country portrait shows that adoption concentrates in larger and data-mature firms and in sectors like ICT and professional services, where users tend to be more productive. That nuance reconciles the headlines: value arrives first where workflows are digital, measurable, and well-informed by data. McKinsey’s 2024 report and Deloitte’s enterprise series both show that when organizations pair tools with process redesign, training, and risk management, returns show up quickly in specific functions.

Treat AI as an operating system for work and you will bank the advantage while others debate the headlines.

The path forward is concrete. Start where the evidence is strongest: support desks and developer workflows already show durable lift. Use Wharton’s playbook to formalize ROI tracking, push budgets toward the use cases that clear your thresholds, and invest in internal capabilities that align with your data and controls. Add the macro signal from Stanford’s AI Index and IBM’s adoption index, and the direction is hard to miss: the market is sorting disciplined operators from dabblers, not proving AI useless.

Conclusion

Enterprise AI is past the novelty stage. Leaders are using it frequently, measuring it against business metrics, and backing the winners with bigger budgets. Skeptical reports serve a purpose by spotlighting waste and weak governance, but they describe the cost of poor execution rather than a dead end. The Wharton analysis supplies a usable blueprint: set ownership, measure outcomes, align people and processes, and fund the capabilities that move the needle. Pair that with external evidence from real workplaces, and the signal is clear. Treat AI as an operating system for work and you will bank the advantage while others debate the headlines.

About the Author

Dr. Gleb TsipurskyDr. Gleb Tsipursky PhD, serves as the CEO of the hybrid work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts and authored the best-seller Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams. He was named “Office Whisperer” by The New York Times for helping leaders overcome frustrations with Generative AI. He serves as the CEO of the future-of-work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts. Dr. Gleb wrote seven best-selling books, and his two most recent ones are Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams and ChatGPT for Leaders and Content Creators: Unlocking the Potential of Generative AI. His cutting-edge thought leadership was featured in over 650 articles and 550 interviews in Harvard Business ReviewInc. MagazineUSA TodayCBS NewsFox NewsTimeBusiness InsiderFortuneThe New York Times, and elsewhere. His writing was translated into Chinese, Spanish, Russian, Polish, Korean, French, Vietnamese, German, and other languages. His expertise comes from over 20 years of consultingcoaching, and speaking and training for Fortune 500 companies from Aflac to Xerox. It also comes from over 15 years in academia as a behavioral scientist, with 8 years as a lecturer at UNC-Chapel Hill and 7 years as a professor at Ohio State. A proud Ukrainian American, Dr. Gleb lives in Columbus, Ohio.

Maduro Pleads Not Guilty as US Seizure Triggers Global Shockwaves

Venezuela’s vast energy wealth once placed it at the center of Latin America’s oil economy, but prolonged political instability, international sanctions and disputed elections have pushed the country into isolation and deep financial distress. Since Nicolas Maduro declared victory in the 2018 presidential race, a result widely challenged abroad, the United States has refused to recognize his leadership, setting the stage for years of escalating diplomatic and legal conflict.

That standoff reached a dramatic peak over the weekend when U.S. Special Forces carried out a helicopter raid in Caracas, breached Maduro’s security perimeter and detained the longtime leader. The operation marked the most striking U.S. intervention in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama and immediately drew condemnation from Russia, China and left leaning allies of Venezuela. The United Nations Security Council convened to debate the implications, while U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned of instability and raised concerns over the legality of the action.

As global leaders reacted, U.S. President Donald Trump moved to clarify Washington’s position. He told NBC News the United States was not at war with Venezuela, saying instead, “we’re at war with the people that sell drugs.” Trump also dismissed the idea of rapid elections, calling a 30 day timeline unrealistic. “We have to fix the country first. You can’t have an election. There’s no way the people could even vote,” he said.

Trump has openly linked the operation to Venezuela’s vast energy resources. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said American oil companies would return and rebuild the country’s damaged energy infrastructure. “We’re taking back what they stole,” Trump said. “We’re in charge.” He later added that oil firms were aware Washington was considering action, though they were not told of the timing. U.S. energy stocks rose on Monday on expectations of future access to Venezuelan reserves.

In Caracas, the political order shifted quickly but did not collapse. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president hours after Maduro’s court appearance. She voiced support for him but gave no sign she would challenge the U.S. move. According to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with a classified U.S. intelligence assessment, Rodriguez was viewed as the figure best positioned to maintain temporary stability, while opposition leaders were seen as lacking broad legitimacy.

The assessment also said Rodriguez, along with the interior and defense ministers, could preserve order in a government largely hostile to Washington. Her brother, Jorge Rodriguez, was reappointed president of the pro Maduro National Assembly on Monday and vowed “to use all procedures, forums and spaces” to secure Maduro’s return.

Against that backdrop, Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in Manhattan federal court on Monday morning. Escorted from a Brooklyn detention facility by armed guards, the pair arrived by helicopter for a brief hearing before U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein. Shackled at the ankles and dressed in prison uniforms, Maduro listened through an interpreter as the judge outlined the charges.

Asked to confirm his identity, Maduro responded in Spanish and then delivered a brief statement before being cut off. “I am innocent. I am not guilty. I am a decent man. I am still president of my country,” he said. Both Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty, and the court scheduled their next appearance for March 17. Judge Hellerstein informed them of their right to notify the Venezuelan consulate.

Outside the courthouse, dozens of demonstrators gathered, split between supporters and critics of the toppled leader. Inside, prosecutors detailed allegations that Maduro oversaw a cocaine trafficking network tied to groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa and Zetas cartels, Colombia’s FARC rebels and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. He faces four counts, including narco terrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy, as well as weapons charges involving machine guns and destructive devices.

Federal prosecutors first charged Maduro in 2020, accusing him of involvement in drug trafficking dating back to his time in Venezuela’s National Assembly in 2000, through his tenure as foreign minister and his 2013 rise to the presidency following Hugo Chavez’s death. An updated indictment released Saturday added details and named Flores as a co defendant.

Maduro has consistently denied the accusations, arguing they serve as a cover for foreign ambitions over Venezuela’s oil wealth. His attorney, Barry Pollack, said he expects an extensive legal battle over what he described as a “military abduction,” adding that Maduro was not currently seeking release. Flores’ lawyer, Mark Donnelly, said she suffered significant injuries during her detention and requested medical examinations.

As legal proceedings begin in New York and a new interim authority settles in Caracas, Venezuela faces an uncertain path. The arrest of a sitting leader, the reshaping of power at home and open U.S. interest in the nation’s oil sector have combined to create a moment with far reaching political, legal and economic consequences.

Related Readings:

Capitol - Venezuela

The Anatomy of Payroll Documentation: What Every Employer Should Keep on File

Accurate payroll documentation is one of the most essential responsibilities for any employer. Beyond ensuring employees are paid correctly and on time, maintaining the right records protects your business during audits, resolves disputes efficiently, and supports long-term compliance with tax and labour regulations. Understanding what to keep, how long to keep it, and why each record matters will help you build a reliable payroll system that benefits both your employees and your organization.

Why Payroll Records Matter

Payroll documentation does far more than track wages. These records provide proof of compliance with federal, state, and local laws. If your company is ever audited or faces a worker claim, payroll documents become the primary evidence that payroll was administered correctly. They also support transparency within the business. A strong recordkeeping system helps management make informed decisions about staffing, budgeting, and growth.

Failing to keep accurate documentation can lead to penalties, back payments, and legal complications. For small businesses in particular, these risks can be costly. Building a clear understanding of the payroll documentation process is a smart way to strengthen operations and protect your company.

Employee Information and Hiring Documents

The foundation of payroll documentation begins with employee records. Every employer should keep personal details such as full legal name, address, date of birth, job title, start date, and Social Security or tax identification numbers. These details help ensure correct tax reporting and wage calculation.

Hiring documents like employment contracts, offer letters, job descriptions, and proof of eligibility to work must also be stored securely. These records show the agreed-upon terms for pay, working hours, and responsibilities. They also act as reference points when updating wages or revising roles within the company.

Time and Attendance Records

Tracking time accurately is central to fair payroll and labour law compliance. Employers must maintain detailed attendance logs that show the hours employees work each day and each week. This includes regular hours, overtime, breaks, and any approved leave.

For hourly employees, these records are essential when calculating payroll. For salaried workers, time and attendance records help verify compliance with leave policies and project tracking. Whether you use digital systems, badges, or manual time sheets, the records must be consistent, accessible, and reliable.

In many cases, businesses use automated payroll tools to keep attendance and wage data synced. Some companies also integrate modern tools such as an AI pay stub generator to streamline the process of generating accurate earnings statements that match logged hours.

Payroll Registers and Payment Records

A payroll register is a summary of each payroll cycle. It typically includes employee names, gross wages, net pay, deductions, taxes withheld, benefits, and additional compensation items like bonuses or commissions. Employers should keep payroll registers for each pay period because they provide a snapshot of the entire wage distribution for that cycle.

Payment records, such as direct deposit confirmations, pay slips, or cheque copies, should also be stored. These documents prove that employees received the correct amount of pay. If an employee ever questions their wages, these records act as clear evidence of payment.

Tax Forms and Withholding Records

Payroll documentation also includes a significant amount of tax-related paperwork. Employers must keep records of employee tax withholding forms, federal and state income tax details, Social Security and Medicare contributions, and employer-paid taxes.

Additionally, businesses need to store copies of annual tax forms filed with government agencies. This includes documents related to year-end reporting and wage summaries. Employees rely on accurate tax reporting, especially when they need to retrieve documents like W2 online during tax season.

Tools That Support Accurate Filing

Many companies now use automated financial tools to reduce errors and ensure accurate year-end reporting. A w2 generator can simplify the creation of wage and tax statements by helping employers produce consistent and compliant documents for their workforce.

Benefits, Deductions, and Reimbursements

Many employees receive benefits such as health insurance, retirement contributions, allowances, or reimbursements. Each of these items requires documentation. Employers should keep detailed records that show how deductions were calculated and when payouts were made.

For expense reimbursements, receipts, approval forms, and payment confirmations should be kept on file. This ensures accountability and transparency. Additionally, maintaining documentation for employee benefits helps verify that contributions are made correctly and on time, protecting both the employer and the worker.

Records of Changes, Updates, and Corrections

Over time, an employee’s payroll information may change. Examples include raises, changes in tax status, updated personal information, or adjustments for previous payroll errors. Employers should document every update with clear explanations and corresponding approvals.

Keeping a record of corrections ensures that future payroll processing remains accurate. It also prevents confusion if changes are ever questioned later on.

How Long Employers Should Keep Payroll Records

Retention requirements vary depending on federal and state laws, but many payroll documents should be kept for at least three to four years. Some, such as tax filings, may require longer retention. It is best practice to consult both federal guidelines and local regulations to create a full retention schedule.

Digital storage is becoming increasingly popular because it reduces space, improves security, and allows for easier retrieval. Whether you store documents physically or digitally, ensure they are protected from unauthorized access.

Building a Strong Payroll Documentation System

Developing a comprehensive payroll documentation system takes planning, but the benefits are long-lasting. Begin by creating a detailed checklist of required documents. Use secure digital platforms to store files and ensure consistent backup. Train your HR and payroll staff so everyone understands the importance of accurate documentation.

A reliable system helps reduce payroll errors, supports compliance, and strengthens trust between employers and employees. By understanding the anatomy of payroll documentation and keeping the correct records on file, employers can enhance operational efficiency and maintain peace of mind.

How to Win the AI Chatbot Marketing Competition

By Dr. Gleb Tsipursky PhD

Type a single prompt into ChatGPT asking for the best solution in your category, and you will see the new marketing contest play out in real time on the screen. In seconds an AI assistant ranks brands, compares offers, and points a ready-to-buy customer straight at the winners, while everyone else is invisible.

Research already shows how quickly customers are moving to this behavior, with Gen AI shopping adoption reaching 71% of consumers in some markets and more than half saying they now prefer these tools for product recommendations over traditional search.

The tool that used to be a research helper is quietly turning into the main place where people decide what to buy.

For David Lewallen, CEO of AI first agency Verbatim Digital, this is not an experiment or a future trend, it is the new front page of the internet, and he argues that brands now compete for share of answers inside large language models just as fiercely as they once fought for search rankings.

In our conversation he laid out a simple plan to win that contest, understand how chatbots rank brands, seed the data they rely on, and measure your placement before your rivals do.

See How Chatbots Collapse The Funnel

Traditional buying journeys asked people to bounce between search engines, review sites, brand pages, and comparison spreadsheets long before they ever spoke to a salesperson. Now a single natural language query hands that work to an AI assistant, which uses a mix of training data and live web results to pull options, explain tradeoffs, and suggest next steps in one fluent answer.

Retail analysts note that AI shopping assistants already merge product discovery and purchase into a single experience, so the tool that used to be a research helper is quietly turning into the main place where people decide what to buy.

Adobe already sees generative AI traffic to retail sites growing more than twelvefold year over year, still small in absolute terms but expanding at a pace that no marketer can ignore.

Lewallen sees this compression of the funnel every day in client testing, where one carefully phrased prompt lets a buyer learn the basics of a problem, narrow down providers, compare pricing models, and come away with a short list in under a minute.

If you do not know how often your brand shows up on those screens, in which position, and surrounded by which competitors, you are already losing a contest you cannot see.

Treat LLMs As New Search Engines With New Rules

Under the hood these assistants work very differently from a classic search engine, yet two ingredients still matter most for visibility, the data used to train the model and the external pages it consults when it needs fresher or more detailed information.

Public research confirms that large language models are fed huge volumes of publicly available text data from Wikipedia and Reddit, along with books, news sites, and academic papers, and that the Common Crawl archive now forms one of the most important raw materials powering many commercial models.

Wikipedia training data is already under scrutiny from Wikimedia researchers who are studying how heavy reuse of it affects the sustainability and bias of the encyclopedia, which gives marketers a clear signal that brand pages and citations there now echo far beyond classic search.

On top of this baseline, companies like OpenAI strike formal data deals, such as the OpenAI Reddit partnership that grants real time access to discussion threads, and they run additional data partnerships programs that invite publishers and brands to contribute high quality corpora in exchange for influence or compensation.

When a user prompt arrives, the model does not rely only on frozen training data, it usually fans out several queries to engines like Google and Bing, uses retrieval augmented generation techniques to pull in up to date pages, and then writes a blended answer that now often appears above classic blue links in AI Overviews.

For marketers this mix of training and grounding explains why generative engine optimization is emerging alongside classic SEO, with experts already advising brands on AI search visibility so they can influence how engines summarize options instead of hoping to be one citation among many.

In Lewallen’s work this translates into a twin strategy, long-term seeding of training data by strengthening Wikipedia entries, encouraging healthy Reddit engagement, and earning coverage in authoritative digital PR outlets, and short-term moves that target the pages chatbots already lean on, especially the best in category lists that show up again and again in grounding queries.

He is clear that conventional SEO remains the foundation, because engines still crawl and rank pages before they ever feed them into models, and because new products like Google AI shopping experiences that combine Gemini with the Shopping Graph rely heavily on structured, accurate product information pulled from those same optimized pages.

Build Your AI Visibility Program Now

Winning this new contest starts with measurement, and Lewallen argues that brands need an AI visibility program every bit as rigorous as their web analytics or paid media reporting.

New generative engine optimization platforms already simulate thousands of prompts across ChatGPT and rival tools to see which brands appear most often and in which context, mirroring the approach Lewallen’s team takes with its own testing tool.

Instead of keyword research alone, he recommends prompt research that maps the crucial questions buyers ask at high intent moments, for example requests to compare two categories or shortlist vendors, then tracks how your brand and a defined competitor set appear in those answers in multiple engines.

From there you can build concrete metrics such as share of prompt for priority questions, average rank within the answer block, and sentiment or messaging alignment, so you can see whether the assistant presents you as the safe incumbent, the innovative challenger, or leaves you off the page.

Because training new frontier models already costs hundreds of millions of dollars, and research on scaling laws suggests diminishing returns for brute force size increases, Lewallen expects most of the near-term improvement to come from better retrieval, which only increases the reward for brands that invest early in the pages and platforms assistants use to check their work.

Start asking the same questions your buyers do, watch how the bots answer, and then organize your content, partnerships, and measurement.

At the same time, partnerships and ad products are starting to formalize visibility in ways marketers will recognize, from Walmart ChatGPT shopping integrations that turn a conversation into a checkout to agentic storefronts that let Shopify merchants control how their catalog appears across major AI platforms.

If you wait to think about AI visibility until those ad units are fully mature, the underlying organic signals in training data, reviews, and community discussions will already favor competitors who treated chatbots as a serious channel years earlier.

Looked at together, Lewallen’s advice turns AI chatbots from a mystery box into a measurable, influenceable part of your go to market engine, one where you compete for prominence in answers instead of only for positions on a results page.

The brands that win the AI chatbot marketing competition will be the ones that treat prompts like new keywords, treat Wikipedia, Reddit, reviews, and best-in-class lists like new shelf space, and hold themselves accountable for performance inside the assistants their customers already trust.

Start asking the same questions your buyers do, watch how the bots answer, and then organize your content, partnerships, and measurement so that the next time someone asks for the best in your category, your name is already on the screen.

About the Author

Dr. Gleb TsipurskyDr. Gleb Tsipursky PhD, serves as the CEO of the hybrid work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts and authored the best-seller Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams. He was named “Office Whisperer” by The New York Times for helping leaders overcome frustrations with Generative AI. He serves as the CEO of the future-of-work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts. Dr. Gleb wrote seven best-selling books, and his two most recent ones are Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams and ChatGPT for Leaders and Content Creators: Unlocking the Potential of Generative AI. His cutting-edge thought leadership was featured in over 650 articles and 550 interviews in Harvard Business ReviewInc. MagazineUSA TodayCBS NewsFox NewsTimeBusiness InsiderFortuneThe New York Times, and elsewhere. His writing was translated into Chinese, Spanish, Russian, Polish, Korean, French, Vietnamese, German, and other languages. His expertise comes from over 20 years of consultingcoaching, and speaking and training for Fortune 500 companies from Aflac to Xerox. It also comes from over 15 years in academia as a behavioral scientist, with 8 years as a lecturer at UNC-Chapel Hill and 7 years as a professor at Ohio State. A proud Ukrainian American, Dr. Gleb lives in Columbus, Ohio.

Are U.S. Armed Crimes in International Waters a Blind Bet on a South American War?

By Joseph Mazur

History shows that aggression under inexperienced command can quickly spiral into chaos. Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves of extra-heavy crude oil. Is the U.S. really engaging in war for a few more barrels of oil, or is there something more ominous unfolding?

I begin with a story, as I often do. Bear with me. I promise there are connections to more serious problems that will emerge. Late one night, many years ago, I was returning from Staten Island to Manhattan on a ferry crossing New York Harbor. An eerie calm came over the early New York skyline just past midnight, when the boat suddenly stopped and blew its horn several times, calling attention to something. Within minutes, the bay woke to a whirl of approaching tugboats, a flotilla of what seemed like hundreds. Searchlights combed a large swath encircling our ferry, lighting the whole bay. Whatever the tugs were doing moments before was no longer important. A man had jumped overboard, intentionally leaving his wallet with ID behind. With the bay so brightly lit, the person would have surely been spotted had he still been above water. No, it was soon clear that whoever he was had disappeared below the water’s surface; and yet, the harbor night-world of pilots, captains, and crews persevered for the next four hours of night with devoted hope. With a disappointing reality, the search ended when the sun rose, and the ferry docked at its slip without complaint.

Over the years, I’ve been telling that story as an example of how impressed I was with how time stopped for hours. Those boats were following maritime law in New York Harbor; law or not, the crews were following human decency, To some folks, the search and rescue story will seem to have no connection to the U.S. strikes on helpless survivors in the Caribbean; to others, I hope, there is a definitive association with who we are and who we are not, as a species.

Before going into the details of this article, I must say how grateful I am to The World Financial Review for its editorial independence, permitting me to write with fact-checked truth about those who deserve to be challenged on policies and opinions that darken the prospects of world peace. I say this with deep concern for the future of the country I still love, with recognition of all its past faults. Six members of the U.S. Congress bravely and rightly produced a video instructing U.S. military service members to dismiss illegal orders – Senators Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin, and Representatives Chris Deluzio, Maggie Goodlander, Chrissy Houlahan, and Jason Crow. This news of U.S. potential war crimes is trending in America this month. Next month, a wholly different story of governmental chaos will emerge to shock us, just as they have each month since January 20, 2025. Fortunately, this essential magazine will reach a broad worldwide audience and stay active as an archive in my monthly column. I give many thanks to The World Financial Review and the European Business Review for publishing this article.

Our current operations in the Caribbean are lawful under both U.S. and international law, with all actions in compliance with the law of armed conflict—and approved by the best military and civilian lawyers, up and down the chain of command. 

 – Pete Hegseth, U.S. Secretary of Defense
(on his social media post)

Seriously?!

Every law – U.S., international, humanitarian, and the Geneva Conventions – shows Hegseth’s claim to be false. Anyone agreeing with him is surely far from the best of military and civilian lawyers.

These U.S. military dishonest narco-boat shenanigans are so dangerous that they bring me into the worldwide media reports of trouble on the high seas. This news has been aired for months in the United States. With so little worldwide coverage, I feel obliged to diverge from my usual column theme to cover one of the most dangerous military missions of the century. Dangerous in that Hegseth’s swerving of international military law gives precedent for others to follow. Violations of U.S. military and international laws must have been well known to him; even his arguments of carelessness or dismissiveness, “fog of war” claims, are not sufficient excuses. In his book The War on Warriors, he brings war back to the Pentagon, telling the U.S. to watch out for where he intends to take us. He believes that the U.S. should repeal the laws in the Geneva Conventions. It’s a shocking book, written by someone who lacks commitment to reciprocity for defenseless soldiers, one of five books that show just how cruel a bellicose man can be. In that book he wrote, “If our warriors are forced to follow rules arbitrarily and asked to sacrifice more lives so that international tribunals feel better about themselves, aren’t we just better off winning our wars according to our own rules?!” Rather amazing for a military veteran and astounding for a Secretary of Defense to tell 2.1 million military personnel to ignore humanitarian rules of war with his whims of disobeying humanitarian laws that surely put his own soldiers in harm’s way.

Questioning the Geneva Conventions, Hegseth suggested that the U.S. should reconsider following the Geneva Conventions and other “politically correct, overbearing rules of engagement” when dealing with enemies who do not follow them. Critics argue that this stance encourages war crimes and undermines the U.S. military’s moral leadership and adherence to international law. He spent one year as a National Guardsman in Iraq and told his troops they should ignore legal rules of engagement, offering to back them up if they would act in violation of international law. If such a stance is not bad enough, there is the question of whether he recently said, according to the Washington Post, referring to targeting alleged drug smuggling boats, “Kill everybody.” It is a haunting phrase, against moral and legal behaviors, though he denied giving such an order.

Fog of war?!

In the entire history of the U.S. military, no U.S. secretary of war had ever condoned illegal rules of engagement.

It is a phrase that does mean something, unlike what Hegseth repeatedly said in his attempt to distance himself: “It’s called the fog of war. The thing … was on fire … that was exploded. And fire, smoke, can’t see anything. You got digital. This is called the fog of war. This is what you and the press don’t understand.” But we and the press do understand. How is it that he, the head of the most powerful and technically advanced military agency in the world, does not? The phrase certainly does not mean smoke getting in the way of seeing two people clinging to a boat. Its normal definition is the complexity, uncertainty, confusion, and chaos of a war, not the literal smoke that prevents one from seeing the evidence in battle. Besides, if Hegseth could not see because of the smoke, his order to carry out the second strike would have been an ignorantly dangerous operation in flying blind with incomplete information. And besides that, surely advanced military cameras can see with amazing sharpness – as Representative Jim Himes did when he claimed the video showed “one of the most troubling things I’ve seen in my time in public office. You have two individuals in clear distress without any means of locomotion with a destroyed vessel who were killed by the United States.” [2] Senator Jack Reed, who also saw the video, confirmed that it was his “worst fears about the nature of the Trump administration’s military activities.” 

For centuries, military behavior followed an instinctive moral code known to combatants: enemies or not, we do not kill defenseless people. Almost every major war is brutal, with flares of war crimes. The current wars in Ukraine and Darfur have daily crimes against humanitarian codes. In 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war crime of deportation and unlawful transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia.

Cartoon depicting U.S President william

The U.S. had its own embarrassments in the last two centuries, as well as in this one, with its missions in the Philippines, Haiti, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. [3] World Wars I and II were no exceptions. There were numerous war crimes in every one of those conflicts that have never surfaced strongly enough to be remembered. War crime memories have limited retention. Of course, we do not remember because we hardly knew of the U.S. history of many war crimes that were played down.  Among the many crimes committed during the Philippine-American War (1899-1913) was one involving a commanding officer of a battalion of Marines giving the order to “kill all persons who are capable of bearing arms in actual hostilities” over the age of 10 years old. [4]

Philippine Officer ReprimandedBut those crimes committed in our lifetimes, like others too torturous to recount in this article, the My Lai massacre and the Abu Ghraib torture, are not forgotten. They were not fogs of war, but more like rising billow-mists of inevitable insanities that arise from battle insecurities. Commanders on the battlefield may have condoned behaviors that could have been considered war crimes. Still, in the entire history of the U.S. military, as far back as I can tell, to George Washington’s first U.S. Secretary of War, Henry Knox, no U.S. Secretary of War had ever condoned illegal rules of engagement. 

A war crime example: the sinking of a hospital ship

Consider the following case as one example that is clearly spelled out in Hegseth’s own copy of his Department of War (alias Department of Defense) Law of War Manual. That manual highlights an example: the British  hospital ship Llandovery Castle was attacked by the German submarine SM U-86 on June 27, 1918, almost at the end of World War I. Three years later, the German Imperial Court of Justice, ordered by the Treaty of Versailles, tried and prosecuted two lieutenants for war crimes, for which they were sentenced to four years in prison. On appeal, they were freed, evidently because their commanding officer gave the order. Patzig was considered responsible for the crime, but he was no longer reachable by the court; he had fled to the free city of Danzig.

Helmut Patzig was in command of U-86, which had sunk 32 merchant ships, including the Llandovery Castle, which was clearly marked as a hospital ship. She was on her way back from Canada to England with 164 crew members, 80 doctors, and 14 Red Cross nurses. Patzig suspected that the ship was carrying American airmen. Acting on this suspicion, he decided to torpedo the ship, despite his having been advised not to do so by his officers. [5] Although he could see that the Llandovery Castle was a hospital ship and knew that international law forbade German U-boats to attack hospital ships, he disregarded his officers’ hesitation and, for whatever reason (possibly believing that the ship was an ammunition transport cloaked in Red Cross camouflage), ordered two torpedoes be fired. The first missed, but the second hit the port side. Ten minutes later, the ship broke in two and sank.

Llandovery Castle
HMHS Llandovery Castle (sunk 27 June 1918)

Frightened and hoping to prevent the news from reaching England, Patzig knew that he had committed a war crime with potential witnesses. He ordered a gunner to fire at the lifeboats. One sank, though another made it to the coast 116 miles away. In the end, 234 people who were on the Llandovery Castle perished. [6]

Read the full masterly told story here.

German Submarine
SM U-86 German submarine (1 December 1918)

You may ask, as I would expect from my readers, why I use this story as an example in similarity with Hegseth’s alleged drug-running target command. Two reasons: One shows how a war crime can start by accident and yet segue into a crime by killing witnesses. The second reason is to understand that those responsible for the attack on the Llandovery Castle were prosecuted three years after the event, in Germany’s Imperial Court of Justice.

Although the 1907 Tenth Geneva Convention had already adopted principles of sea warfare – in particular, hospital ships were required to be fitted with distinguishing marks – those principles were buttressed by the Second Geneva Convention of 1949, the United Nations 1979 International Convention on maritime search and rescue, and Public Law 98-89 98th established in 1983 by the U.S. Congress.

The Law of War Manual uses the Llandovery Castle case to make it clear that killing survivors is a crime. [7] 

Department of Defense

“It is certainly to be urged in favor of the military subordinates, that they are under no obligation to question the order of their superior officer, and they can count upon its legality. But no such confidence can be held to exist, if such an order is universally known to everybody, including also the accused, to be without any doubt whatever against the law … it was perfectly clear to the accused that killing defenseless people in the life-boats could be nothing else but a breach of the law. As naval officers by profession they were well aware … that one is not legally authorized to kill defenseless people. They well knew that this was the case here. They quickly found out the facts by questioning the occupants in the boats when these were stopped. They could only have gathered, from the order given by Patzig, that he wished to make use of his subordinates to carry out a breach of the law. They should, therefore, have refused to obey.”

Pete Hegseth

Opinions can change over time, but in this case, with Hegseth taking charge of the military, they have moved, atypically, in the unethical direction, from supporting the law to offending against it. To understand, look no further than how this happens when weak and shameless power opportunists find power by connections to powerful exploiters with influence and control.  

Back to the drug-boat attacks

After the illegal bombing of one boat, two survivors remained clinging to their sinking boat when the Navy Admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley made the final decision to conduct the second strike, according to two officials briefed on the operation, as ordered by Hegseth’s instructions to kill the drowning men. Bradley, though, later denied the kill-all order. That second strike has become the lightning rod that launched the U.S. House and Senate Armed Services Committee inquiries into the strikes. Shooting helpless hors de combat people, those who are unable to fight due to injury, sickness, surrender, or capture, even in declared wars, is an international and U.S. crime. Trump’s excuse is that the mariners in those targeted boats were narco-terrorists because, as he said, he has the authority to declare drug smugglers to be terrorists. It’s more than just a mistaken understanding of the concept of terrorism; it is dumb, because it diminishes the power of the word “terrorist.” Drug smuggling is simply trafficking a take-it-or-leave-it commodity, not a demanding threat for citizens to snort cocaine. Besides, drugs were not headed to the U.S., though we were told that they were.

Hegseth called the second strike a “double tap,” a military tactical compound verb that also goes by “hammers.” In warfare, the term means to shoot a target twice in rapid succession. That is not what happened. A double tap, as computer buffs know well, refers in military terms to a repeated strike as fast as a gun-finger can move, with no chance of checking and reassessing the need for another strike. In the case of the September 2 attack, the second strike allegedly happened 40 minutes after the first, with enough time to see two men hanging onto a damaged boat after nine of their buddies had just been killed. They were trying to stay alive on an overturned boat with no radio and no way to gather reinforcements. A second strike, after time to assess the first strike, is called a “restrike,” certainly not a “double strike”!

We don’t know the answer or whether Hegseth said, “Kill them all.” Some day we will. We know that he supports the strikes, for, in December 2025, at the Reagan National Defense Forum, he said, “I would have made the same call myself. Those involved in 20 years of combat in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan know that reattack, restrikes on the battlefield happen often. In this particular case, [sic.] it was well within the authority of Admiral Bradley, who is an incredible American Hero. And the 22 or 23 strikes since have followed a similar protocol of insuring to meet the criteria. The decision is not at my level anymore.”

Public law
Public Law 98-89 98th established by Congress, 1983 [8]
Also, there is an unwritten law that has forced a customary usage to become a legal concept. Besides, going back a century, when whaling crews were trapped in the Arctic Ocean, the United States came to the rescue, and a moral mariner rule became a federal law of the seas requiring the master of any vessel to assist another vessel with crew in danger. For centuries, going back to the Roman Empire, there was an unwritten rule to assist distressed ships, even those that were enemies.

What’s next?

If the U.S. Congress does not act soon, then the International Criminal Court (ICC) had better proceed with investigations of war crimes before the whole world of combatants begins to copycat U.S. boat crimes. If the U.S., which used to be the military envy of the world and once upon a time followed the United Nations International Legal Protection of Human Rights, as well as its own Department of Defense War Manual, and now abandons the most moral code of ethics in warfare, what then? Will there be military drone attacks targeting suspicious drug suppliers walking along city streets, killing innocent victims nearby under Hegseth’s repeated “fog of war” excuse?

ICRC

International Humanitarian law

[9]Wounded and sick military personnel and medical personnel are considered “protected persons.”

Let’s go directly to the Department of Defense Law of War Manual.

Department of Defense law (1)
Notes: [10], [11], [12]

New wars for the Americas to control the whole Western Hemisphere

Is there a legitimate reason for taking down drug boats, or are we preparing to be on the verge of war with Venezuela? A war beyond? The drug boat attacks are distractions, and any military personnel who have been directly involved with any of those attacks had better understand that at least one of them may eventually be imprisoned for up to three years. The two lieutenants involved with launching torpedoes and sinking a Llandovery Castle lifeboat were indicted, though the captain of the ship escaped punishment. In that vein, all military personnel should know that compliance with an illegal command can lead to severe punishment or imprisonment.  [13]

All military personnel should know that compliance with an illegal command can lead to severe punishment or imprisonment.

Should we care about any of these conventions and rules that might slow down the machinations of government? Some people want to support Russ Vought, Trump’s shadow president, who said, “I don’t want President Trump having to lose a moment of time having fights in the Oval Office about whether something is legal or doable or moral.” [14] Vought, the U.S. Director of the Office of Management and Budget, said that. In other words, anything, legal or illegal, is fair game.  He’s the leader of Project 2025, the policy that now defines almost all of Trump’s agendas, though Trump, in campaigning for his second presidency, claimed he knew nothing about the Project.  

Article 23 Geneva Convention (1)

The Trump administration considers drug-running to be an armed conflict. If so, then killing survivors of the enemy would, under both international and U.S. law, be considered murder. If, on the other hand, the U.S. is not in an armed conflict, then domestic law applies, and the killing of civilian survivors would still be murder, an extrajudicial killing. An order to kill survivors is itself a war crime, in both cases. The War Powers Resolution Act of 1973 limits the President’s power to commit troops to armed conflict only under Congressional approval. Trump considers that Act to apply without Congressional approval when U.S. service members are in harm’s way. A White House statement confirmed that “the operation comprises precise strikes conducted largely by unmanned aerial vehicles launched from naval vessels in international waters at distances too far away for the crews of the targeted vessels to endanger American personnel.” [15] One loophole used by the administration opens interpretations that the strikes on drug-running boats do not qualify as hostility because the strikes are far from the scenes of carnage. [16] No one believes that excuse, because almost all modern armed conflicts are remote these days. If the excuse is legitimate, it is not a loophole but rather a sinkhole for excusing unconditional free murder. After all, the word “hostilities” can only refer to active exchanges of fire. Without each side striking the other, the engagement becomes a slaughter, not a war, and therefore a killing of civilians that is punishable by international and domestic court orders.

No quarter orders

Well, I don’t think we’re going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war. I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country. Okay, we’re going to kill them. You know that they are going to be, like, dead.

– Donald Trump at an Oct 23 White House press briefing

My war-history colleagues tell me that drug cartels are not organized groups capable of sustaining armed combat, and therefore are not in a battle that brings in the rules of warfare but that, on the other hand, if we suppose that drug smuggling in combat with the U.S. is an armed conflict, the laws of international humanitarian law apply to prohibit targeting civilians and killing wounded and defenseless survivors. Those laws clearly stress that issuing or obeying “no quarter orders” is a war crime. The quote above, from Trump, itself is a U.S. and international war crime if it were implemented as policy. International humanitarian law distinguishes international and non-international, but in both instances, an armed conflict requires that both opposing forces must be organized armed groups engaged in substantive, intensive armed hostilities. [17] U.S.  criminal law, the U.S. Code of Military Justice, and Maritime Law all tell the U.S. that we cannot kill people without due process.

To understand more deeply what that means is to understand that any person responsible for a war crime act – the guy instigating a command to do so, down to the guy pulling the trigger – will be held fully accountable, no matter where they are, or how long ago the offense happened. Soldiers should think about that, for there is no such thing as a Presidential pardon for war crimes. As Seth Moulton, a U.S. Representative, put it: “The idea that wreckage from one small boat in a vast ocean is a hazard to marine traffic is patently absurd, and killing survivors is blatantly illegal. Mark my words: It may take some time, but Americans will be prosecuted for this, either as a war crime or outright murder.” [18]

Just think about my short tale involving the Staten Island ferry’s six-hour search for a human being drowned in the New York Harbor. It was not just a humanitarian gesture, though it was that too. It is U.S. Maritime Law and International Humanitarian Law that require all vessels to assist anyone in distress. [19] It is more than a law; it is a moral and social duty.

Expansion! the western patrol (1)

History is filled with the names of dangerous people believing their own instincts that slow the turning world to start wars they can control. They come to power through power connections.  Few wars are bloodless. Let me go off on a limb to say that sooner or later, if these offensive boat explosions in the Pacific and Caribbean continue, a grave error will bring the U.S. to a point where servicemen are killed – maybe just one, maybe more, or many more. With the recent news of the U.S.–Venezuela standoff with oil tanker seizures, escalation to war level seems to be in the military planning of a regime change, a risky mission that rarely works out well. The history I know tells me that revenge will turn bombing of boats into launching of missiles that will amplify in aggressiveness, unfortunately, because, at all costs, governments cannot face the reality of loss without gain. When blood is lost, when anger kicks in, it is almost impossible to stop violence. So how far will Hegseth’s illegal aggression go before the ICC steps in? Normally, the ICC follows the legal guideline the Principle of Complementarity, which advises an individual country accused of a crime to start the process of self-investigating. The ICC is a court of last resort that will intervene only when individual member states involved in a suspected war crime are unwilling or unable to investigate and prosecute. Letting this war crime continue, even for a short time, could lead to a dangerous perception that attacking boats and ships on the high seas is free for all.  With the U.S. threatening Venezuela, we should be prepared for another war, this time in our own hemisphere, and one that will take far more lives than those of at least 104 humans (so far) blown off alleged drug smuggling boats. When that war comes, there will be war crimes that will kill enough American soldiers to rise to an uncontrolled level of revenge. Then what for? A few more barrels of oil?

Letting this war crime continue could lead to a dangerous perception that attacking boats and ships on the high seas is free for all.

Yes, Venezuela happens to be a country with the world’s largest reserves of extra-heavy crude oil, 17 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and close to four times that of the U.S. Would possession of those reserves be worth another costly war? Or is the plan disguised by drug stopping, maneuvering to blockade and pursue oil tankers to steal Venezuela’s oil, force regime change, curb China’s immense trade in the Western Hemisphere, or to control all the Americas? We rarely know what Trump is up to, so we can only guess what will happen next.

And so, here we are with an update from January 4, 2026, following Trump’s move from one day to the next. What is next, and why?

What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos—pro-government armed groups that police neighborhoods and terrorize dissidents—all compete for turf.

– Orlando J. Pérez, author of Civil-Military Relations in Post-Conflict Societies

​​ In the early hours of Saturday, January 3, American troops invaded Venezuela and seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. That news is now flashing around the world, so there is no need to cover it here. But deconstructing the essentials brings us to the question: Why? Since that startling news, I’ve been probing my colleagues who know far more than I do with repeated whys. No one knows what the risky invasion, called “Operation Absolute Resolve,” is about. Therefore, the reasons appear to be highly speculative and troubling. Trump and Putin communicated by phone on December 28th and 29th, just days before the invasion of Venezuela. We, the American public, including many in government, have neither transcripts nor knowledge of what was said between the two leaders. [20]

Location of US Strikes in Venezuela
Map of the 3 Jan 2026 US strikes on Venezuela
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license

Credit: Chorchapu

Could those leaders been plotting a deal on partitioning spheres of influence, where Russia can take Ukraine and eventually go further, perhaps into Moldova and Romania? The U.S. will ignore Europe. China can take Taiwan. In return, Russia and China, powering the Eastern sphere, would agree to the overthrow of Venezuela, Colombia, possibly Greenland, or the Western Hemisphere. It’s speculation; I can’t think of any other acceptable reason for taking over Venezuela. Oil, drugs, or territory are not reasonable actions, though they are likely to be distractions to quell Trump’s continuing bad political news.

Stay tuned.

About the Author

Joseph MazurJoseph Mazur is an Emeritus Professor of Mathematics at Emerson College’s Marlboro Institute for Liberal Arts & Interdisciplinary Studies. He is a recipient of fellowships from the Guggenheim, Bogliasco, and Rockefeller Foundations, and the author of eight acclaimed popular nonfiction books. His latest book is The Clock Mirage: Our Myth of Measured Time (Yale).

Notes

[1] The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), left, USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81), front, USS Mahan (DDG 72), back, USS Bainbridge (DDG 96), and embarked Carrier Air Wing Eight F/A-18E/F Super Hornets assigned to Strike Fighter Squadrons 31, 37, 87, and 213, operate as a joint, multi-domain force with a U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, Nov. 13, 2025. U.S. military forces, like the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, are deployed in support of the U.S. Southern Command mission, Department of War-directed operations, and the President’s priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland. 

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/us/politics/drug-boat-strikes-sept-2-video-congress.html#:~:text=Some%20Republicans%20and%20Democrats%20left,Trump%20administration%20needed%20to%20answer.

[3] https://archive.org/details/peopleshistoryof00howa/page/2/mode/2up

[4]https://www.google.com/books/edition/Benevolent_Assimilation/Zj6g2ag47TwC?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PA220&printsec=frontcover

[5] https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/llandovery-castle-1921-german-imperial-court-of-justice.pdf

[6] https://ijnh.seahistory.org/an-unatoned-war-crime/#identifier_15_2685

[7] The Department of Defense Law of War Manual (June 2015, Updated July 2023) pp. 1088-1089.

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDF

[8] https://www.congress.gov/98/statute/STATUTE-97/STATUTE-97-Pg500.pdf

[9] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gci-1949/article-12/commentary/2016

[10] Judgement in Case of Lieutenants Dithmar and Boldt, Hospital Ship “Llandovery Castle” (Second Criminal Senate of the Imperial Court of Justice, Germany, Jul. 16, 1921), reprinted in 16 AJIL, 708, 721-22 (1922)

[11] Judgement in Case of Lieutenants Dithmar and Boldt, Hospital Ship “Llandovery Castle” (Second Criminal Senate of the Imperial Court of Justice, Germany, Jul. 16, 1921), reprinted in 16 AJIL, 708, 721-22 (1922)

[12] United States v. Calley, 22 U.S.C.M.A. 534, 543-44 (C.M.A. 1973) (“In the stress of combat, a member of the armed forces cannot reasonably be expected to make a refined legal judgment and be held criminally responsible if he guesses wrong on a question as to which there may be considerable disagreement.

[13] https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201405/volume-1405-i-23489-english.pdf

[14] https://www.propublica.org/article/about-russell-vought-trump-shadow-president#:~:text=I%20don’t%20want%20President,chainsaw%20to%20budgets%20and%20staffing

[15] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/us/politics/trump-boat-attacks-war-powers.html

[16] https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp

[17] https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/non-international-armed-conflict-niac/#:~:text=The%20definition%20and%20qualification%20of,1).

[18] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/11/28/hegseth-kill-them-all-survivors-boat-strike/

[19] https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988/january/duty-rescue#:~:text=Courts%20have%20acknowledged%20that%20there,legally%20required%20or%20legally%20permitted.

[20] There were 10 phone calls between Trump and Putin in 2025.

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