The investment climate in 2024 has looked cautiously optimistic, although prospects are clouded by the perennial uncertainty of economic conditions. While global foreign direct investment modestly recovered, major challenges remain, such as geopolitical tensions and inflation in developed markets. As a result, investors are seeking new emerging markets. Among them, Kazakhstan, the largest and most economically developed country in Central Asia, is one of the options on the table. Situated at the juncture of Europe and Asia, possessing significant natural resources, and pursuing an economic diversification policy, the country is worthy of closer attention.
Diversification Beyond Oil and Gas
Kazakhstan has historically been dependent on oil and gas, yet in recent years it has been diversifying its economy. According to preliminary estimates, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth for the first 11 months of 2024 reached 4.4%, primarily driven by the development of the non-oil sector. Over 70% of economic growth came from manufacturing, trade, agriculture, and construction. Overall, domestic goods production grew by 5%, while services rose by 4.5%.
Additionally, state support measures have boosted the share of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan’s economy by 1.8%, reaching 38.2%. As of December 1, the number of active SMEs increased by 1.5%, surpassing 2 million enterprises.
The country’s economic diversification is also based on its privatization program, which aims to reduce state involvement in the economy and improve market efficiency. Around 675 public and quasi-public companies are planned to be privatized in 2021-2025.
One aspect of the privatization initiative is the “People’s IPO” program, which allows citizens to acquire shares in major state-owned enterprises. In 2024, the Samruk Kazyna Sovereign Wealth Fund commenced IPOs for several of its portfolio companies. Specifically, Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s flagship carrier, successfully completed its IPO in February 2024.
In May 2024, Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, signed a decree on measures to liberalize the economy. The objective is to create a more competitive business environment, encourage private sector development, and reduce the involvement of the state in the economy.
Technology and ICT
Kazakhstan’s “Digital Kazakhstan” program is a particular selling point for the country. The focus of the program is on digitizing the economic sectors, developing safe communication networks, and promoting entrepreneurship in the tech field.
The creation of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) in 2017 has fired up the digital economy. With a legal system based on English common law, tax holidays, and fintech-friendly policies, the volume of investments attracted through the AIFC has reached $14 billion, $6.7 billion of which are portfolio investments on the Astana International Exchange. More than 3,400 companies from 85 countries have been registered at the AIFC.
Moreover, Kazakhstan is actively involved in developing its artificial intelligence sector, which is now central to its digital initiatives. In July, the government adopted the Concept for Artificial Intelligence Development for 2024-2029, which aims to establish an AI ecosystem that would contribute to the development of all sectors of the economy. A key project in this regard is the creation of the Alem.AI International Center. It will include research and development labs, a programming school, and offices for international technology companies.
Critical Metals and A Global Trade Gateway
Kazakhstan is also becoming an important player in the global supply chain of rare earth metals and essential minerals, which are required for high-tech industries and the green energy transition. The country is expanding exploration and forging international partnerships. Kazakhstan has a vast resource base, with 124 identified deposits of rare and rare earth metals, though only 37 have been explored so far. According to the World Bank, more than 5,000 undiscovered deposits worth over $46 trillion may exist in the country. Recent exploration showed about 800,000 tons of valuable minerals. At the same time, the country has voiced its commitment to environmentally responsible mining.
Kazakhstan leverages its geographical advantage of being located between China and Europe, especially through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which is also known as the Middle Corridor. It connects China and Europe through Central Asia and has become a particularly popular trade route in recent years.
Kazakhstan has essentially become a key logistics hub in 2024, handling record-breaking cargo volumes along the TITR, which rose by 63% in the first 11 months of 2024, reaching 4.1 million tons.
Through increased investment in rail infrastructure and digital logistics platforms, TITR has become an increasingly reliable alternative to existing routes. Specifically, in early 2024, the European Union and Central Asian investors committed €10 billion to support in the sustainable development of the TITR. The objective is to transform the corridor into a cutting-edge, multimodal, and efficient route connecting Europe and Central Asia within 15 days.
Investment Incentives
Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan has been working to improve its investment climate through reforms, streamlined procedures, and competitive tax policies. The reforms are based on the promise to establish a “Just Kazakhstan,” a country that benefits all citizens. Politically, the country reduced the powers of the President and enhanced the powers of the elected Parliament, thus ensuring political stability, which also benefits foreign investors. Specifically in the investment sphere, the National Digital Investment Platform, launched in 2024, simplified investment processes and reduced administrative burdens.
Additionally, the Kazakh government has introduced several incentives to attract foreign direct investment, such as tax holidays that offer corporate income tax exemptions for 10 years in priority sectors. Furthermore, companies that operate within Special Economic Zones (SEZs) benefit from tax-free operations on corporate income, land, and property for up to 25 years. Investors can also receive up to 30% capital reimbursements on their investments.
The Central Asian country has also introduced mechanisms for investment agreements that offer stability in tax legislation for 10 years upon conclusion. To facilitate long-term investment, investment agreements secure a 10-year freeze on major tax rates and customs duties, which aim to provide a stable and predictable business environment.
Kazakhstan also engages with foreign investors through government-backed platforms such as the President’s Foreign Investors Council, which provided an opportunity to voice suggestions and proposals on investment-related issues in the country.
In addition, the country hosts the Astana International Forum (AIF), which, in 2025, will take place on May 29-30. Building on the inaugural edition in 2023, the 2025 AIF will gather leaders from around the world to exchange perspectives on the most critical issues of the day. One of the pillars specifically focuses on the economy and finance, enabling participants to discuss global economic issues as well as those directly relevant to Kazakhstan. With more than 5,000 international attendees and over 80 heads of state, ministers, CEOs, and other senior leaders, it presents an opportunity to address issues that matter to foreign investors.
Outlook for 2025
Ultimately, Kazakhstan’s economic diversification is supported by sound policies, which indicate that the market has matured significantly over more than 30 years since its independence. Kazakhstan’s competitive tax regime, strategic infrastructure investments, and expanding technological ecosystem make it an interesting option for investors, an option that should be considered in 2025 in the context of growing competition among global players.



























































Trump’s Game, China’s Move
By Dan Steinbock
The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive US-China ties to the edge.
Who do I call when I want to talk to Europe? Kissinger once quipped highlighting the internal divides of the old continent. Today, he’d have a similar problem calling America.
In recent weeks, President Biden has yielded spotlight to Trump who has talked with foreign leaders like President Macron and Ukraine’s Zelensky, while commenting on Syrian turmoil before Biden. After Trump’s meetings with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, trade and immigration policy are already out of Biden’s hands.
Since 2021 Biden has missed the opportunity to reset Trump’s policies. Now he could have used the transition period to warn Americans of the impending Trump’s revolution, whick risks disrupting domestic politics and US-China ties.
Trump’s triple inflation risks
If the 2021-23 inflation surge in America killed Biden’s second term by instigating widespread voter frustration, Trump’s economic agenda is likely to pose a triple threat to U.S. price stability.
The expected broad tax cuts will compound the already-huge federal deficits and debt, thereby exacerbating inflation. The possible effort to reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve would further foster inflation.
The second likely source of inflation would be the Trump’s pledge to initiate the “massive” deportation process, alongside other restrictive immigration policies. Not only would that effort divide Americans, reinforce xenophobia and white nationalism, it would likely disrupt U.S. labor markets, which rely on foreign-born workers, particularly in construction, agriculture and hospitality.
Additionally, such policies would encourage another ugly wave of anti-Asian sentiment that America witnessed in the Trump era and Biden’s protectionism has continued to inflame. It would undermine Chinese immigrant talent in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Darkly reminiscent of the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, America First translates to deporting the Chinese first. The Trump White House needs to scapegoat an “enemy” for its policy failures.
Third, Trump seeks to integrate the barely-regulated cryptocurrencies into America’s financial and fiscal systems thus opening the henhouse to crypto-foxes. It is a self-interested policy of the Trump oligarchs. The unregulated crypto-sphere, if fully executed, could cause high volatility in the financial markets. By potentially facilitating illicit activities such as money laundering, dark financing and diminishing the Fed’s influence over the economy, it could disrupt the dollar hegemony in the world economy.
Hence, too, the president-elect’s recent threat of 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they pursue creating new currency. In reality, the 34-country bloc is more interested in trading with their own local currencies than a bloc-wide currency. But Trump’s economic coercion is a taste of things to come.
Trade and technology wars
Since American hegemony can no longer rely on US dominance in the increasingly multipolar world economy, Washington relies increasingly on trade wars, sanctions and geopolitics to retain that supremacy.
If the triple inflation threat associated with the Trump White House will materialize, the Fed will slow its rate cuts or return to tightening. That will push up the dollar, which could destabilize international currencies, including the Chinese yuan. When trade tensions take off, economic uncertainty and market volatility will increase worldwide, including Chinese stock market. As investors’ risk appetite decreases, markets face downward pressures.
The Trump administration will exploit sanctions to decouple bilateral high-tech ties with China, especially by targeting semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, possibly advanced manufacturing and biotech. Such measures increase costs in high-tech over time but won’t immediately affect daily living costs in the US.
Hence the attractiveness of such measures to Trump’s trade authorities, including the new trade representative Jamieson Greer, a protégé of ex-trade czar Robert Lighthizer. Greer used to represent US Steel in a lawsuit against China. Rewarded for his loyalty in the Capitol attack four years ago, the Sinophobic Peter Navarro will be Trump’s new senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.
Although the tough-and-rough Lighthizer managed to sell tariffs to Wall Street during the Trump’s first administration, he has now been played out. Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary selection Howard Lutnick and Kevin Hassett, the new head of the National Economic Council, are all seen as business-friendly establishment figures. But each supports tariff and tech wars as well.
Unlike Lighthizer who saw tariffs as across-the-board duties to resolve America’s chronic trade deficits, the Wall Streeters are more likely to use tariffs “strategically” on certain products and as a cudgel to coerce other nations to accede to Trump’s demands.
China’s counter-measures
As demonstrated by the just concluded Central Economic Work Conference, China has been preparing for Trump’s trade wars. Among priorities for economic policy in 2025, policymakers emphasize the need to maintain stable growth, employment and commodity prices, through steps like higher deficit-to-GDP ratios, rate cuts and the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.
During the first Trump administration, China was the primary tariff target. Now Trump says he will enact a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, and raise tariffs on goods from China by 10%. He has advocated 60-100% tariffs on imports from China and 10-20% tariffs on imports from all other countries, including allies. The “spread effect” could dilute some of the adverse impact on China. Moreover, like seven years ago, US importers have been busy trying to frontload their China purchases to reduce the impact of the impending tariffs. The proposed tariff effect is thus more likely to materialize in 2025-26.
Second, Chinese economy has changed. In 2017, it was more reliant on US as an export destination. For two decades, China was the top exporter of goods into the US and even in 2022 bilateral trade was still at a record high. Now Mexico has overtaken China’s role. Today, the US attracts less than 15% of Chinese exports, whereas ASEAN and the EU account over 16% and less than 15%, respectively. The EU will seek to emulate the US tariffs, but prefers targeted rather than across-the-board tariffs.
Third, China was more dependent on exports in 2017. Today, China is world-class science leader and benefits from more diversified innovation. I am currently touring in Guangdong’s Greater Bay Area. In the “Chinese Silicon Valley,” research and development (R&D) as of GDP is over 2.4%; higher than in France. In Shenzhen, it is over 6.5%; more than in any country.
True, China is still developing manufacturing processes for advanced semiconductors; a key target of US export controls. But now it is leading in electric vehicles, automotive software and lithium battery technology. Moreover, China’s LNG shipbuilding and high-speed rail industries are on track to hit targets. It produces the world’s most efficient and lowest-cost solar panels, along with innovative drugs.
Hardball or dialogue
Recently, the Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, opted to respond more actively to economic downturns, boost demand and stabilize the housing market. Fiscal easing is augmented by “moderately loose” monetary policy next year. The decision to foster “unconventional” counter-cyclical adjustments is the greatest policy shift since 2008.
However, China too can play the tit-for-tat trade games, even if reluctantly. On Dec. 2, Washington added more than 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list and banned the sale to China of some of the fastest semiconductors and the equipment to make them. China responded by banning US exports of rare minerals – gallium, germanium, and antimony – and other items.
It was the first time China included a broad ban on so-called transshipment in a government regulation on exports. US sources estimate the likely total cost from disruptions to supplies of gallium and germanium alone at over $3 billion. Moreover, Beijing has begun an antimonopoly investigation into Nvidia, the US giant dominating the world market for the advanced chips needed for AI.
Does this mean China has opted for those geopolitical divides in the global economy that Trump and Biden have supported in the past seven years? No. It is a signal to the incoming Trump administration that unilateralism has no future in a multipolar global economy. It is still a move to begin dialogue – unless the Trump White House chooses otherwise.
The original version was released by China-US Focus on December 20, 2024
About the Author