By Dr. Jack Rasmus
After weeks of on again off again, US mainstream media headlines today, February 26, 2025 announce that Trump and Ukraine’s president Zelensky—after weeks of ‘tit for tat’ mutual accusations–have reportedly reached a deal for Ukraine to pay the US from Ukraine’s minerals wealth.
The deal details remain opaque, however. It’s not clear if the amount to be repaid is still $500 billion. Nor is it clear whether the agreement will repay past US aid to Ukraine or be used to help rebuild Ukraine after the war’s end.
Furthermore, the mainstream media provides no details as to ‘who else benefits’ from the deal. Will the money go back into the US Treasury, into a Ukraine post war rebuilding…or to benefit private interests?
Typical of US mainstream media’s reporting of events is today’s Wall St. Journal headline announcing a pact was reached. The only details reported, however, is that Ukraine “would pay some proceeds from future mineral resource development into a fund” and that “existing oil and gas production would be exempt from the deal”. More revealing is the reference that “the size of the U.S.’s stake in the fund and joint ownership deals will be hashed out in future agreements.”
Most likely that end will occur sometime in the second half of 2025—at least with regard to US active participation in the war.
In short, it all looks like a PR compromise between Trump and Zelensky to lower the accusations and public feuding between them that had been rising in intensity in recent weeks. Both Trump and Zelensky make token concessions to make it appear as if a deal exists and leave the critical details unclear.
Both sides thus now kicked down the road, to be flushed out in detail only after war’s end. Most likely that end will occur sometime in the second half of 2025—at least with regard to US active participation in the war. For there are signs the US/NATO proxy war with Russia in Ukraine may soon end but the conflict morph into a Europe/NATO proxy war.
Zelensky’s Original Offer
The idea of money from Ukraine’s mineral wealth in exchange for US aid is a Zelensky proposal raised last fall when the Biden administration was still in power and it was clear the US Congress would not pass further legislation after its $61 billion aid package enacted early last summer. Raising the idea of minerals wealth in exchange for more aid last fall was thus a Zelensky effort to restart the flow of US funds to Ukraine.
Embedded in the running dispute in recent weeks by Trump and Zelensky over whether, how much and in what form Ukraine would share its mineral wealth with the US is their parallel running disagreement over how much aid the US has actually given Ukraine the past three years.
Trump has said the Biden administration gave Ukraine $350 billion with no strings attached, while Europe provided only $150 billion in the form of loans to be repaid. Thus Trump’s reference to the $500 billion is in effect a redefinition of Biden’s ‘no strings attached’ aid, converting Biden’s grant into a loan to be repaid, much like the Europeans’ terms of aid. Presumably the $500 billion would cover repayment of the $350 billion given Ukraine thus far by the US, with perhaps $150 billion more left over for rebuilding Ukraine post war.
Zelensky responded Ukraine only actually received $70 billion in US aid since 2022 and admitted he could not account for another $100 billion. He further emphasized US aid was a grant not a loan and Ukraine would not repay any of it. Zelensky thus clarifies he means minerals for more future weapons and funding from US not as repayment for past US aid. He also has clarified the form of wealth transfer will not assume a 50% US sharing nor US right to purchase 50% of the Ukraine assets to ensure 50% sharing. The mechanism—as well as the amount–is left to future details.
Also in dispute is what any of the wealth sharing funds would be used for. Trump has been unclear whether the sharing would reimburse US for past aid as well as to help rebuild Ukraine after a settlement. Zelensky’s position is all the sharing would be redirected back into rebuilding Ukraine.
In short, the agreement announced today amounts to minimal tokenism by both parties. Again suggesting it’s for media consumption to appear as if there’s a deal of substance and to provide a means for both Trump and Zelensky to lower the heat of mutual accusations and incriminations.
Trump’s Counter Offer
Trump has been saying all along that since Zelensky proposed the $500 billion figure in principle last fall he first raised the idea inviting negotiations. It was Zelensky’s number. Trump has explained he has only agreed to Zelensky’s number and countered with some details as to how the $500 billion might be repaid: specifically he proposed the US be given a 50% claim on all proceeds from the sale of all Ukraine minerals plus the US right to acquire Ukrainian minerals companies to ensure payment.
Embedded in their running dispute the past few weeks is differences over how much the US has actually given in aid to Ukraine since the war began in 2022. The Wall St. Journal article today—and the US mainstream media in general the past two weeks–largely agrees with Zelensky’s claim Ukraine received only “$70 billion in military aid.” However, that estimate conveniently ignores that the Biden administration passed legislation last summer that alone provided $61 billion in military aid, to which has been added a still undetermined further amount by the Biden administration in the weeks after the US November election. Moreover the $70 billion is an estimate for military aid not other forms of aid the US has provided the past three years.
The true amount of US aid to Ukraine—military as well as to pay the salaries of the Ukraine government the past three years—is undoubtedly closer to the $350 billion than the $70 billion. Zelensky himself has previously stated the cost of paying Ukraine government salaries and employee pensions is $8 billion a month. That total for three years is close to $300 billion. Much of US aid to Ukraine since February 2022 has therefore been to finance the Ukraine government, not just to provide military aid. In total it’s likely between $300 and $400 billion.
A deal on wealth sharing for whatever reason cannot predate a negotiated settlement to the war itself.
Apart from the uncertainty as to what actually is the dollar amount of the just announced deal, the agreement reported by the Wall St. Journal today includes no guarantee of US security for Ukraine. This precondition of US security in exchange for sharing Ukraine’s mineral wealth has consistently been a major sticking point in Trump-Zelensky negotiations all along. Zelensky’s position has been a guarantee of US security is always a quid pro quo for any wealth sharing.
In short, the agreement reported today is a PR deal primarily for public media consumption. Zelensky has made a token concession in principle of only “some proceeds” (not $500 billion) and that would not include revenues from “existing oil and gas production”. In return Trump has made a token concession of ‘some amount’ of mineral wealth sharing according to some arrangement, both of which are to be determined in some ‘future agreement’.
All the exchanges and announcements associated with the mineral wealth exchange for US support in some form is an exercise in ‘putting the cart before the horse’ as the saying goes. A deal on wealth sharing for whatever reason cannot predate a negotiated settlement to the war itself. It can only be a part of a settlement that is still fundamentally elusive. Especially if the US ends its proxy war with Russia and cuts a separate deal with Russia, and Europe picks up the tab of the cost of continuing the war and providing weapons to Ukraine
Who Benefits?
The US mainstream media’s narrative is the $500 billion (or whatever the eventual amount) is about funds to rebuild Ukraine after the war’s end. But is that an adequate explanation for ‘who benefits’ from the funds from the minerals production and sale? What is the deal really about? Who are the parties that will eventually benefit from whatever wealth sharing results?
What’s really behind the $500 billion minerals deal?
The Europeans clearly out negotiated Biden by providing Ukraine with $150 billion in loans not grants, to be repaid somehow at a later date. They are also sitting on $260 billion in Russian frozen assets in EU banks. And they just announced another $20 billion ‘bridge loan’ to Ukraine to enable it to continue the war into the summer. They’ve been suggesting, and it is obvious they plan, to use the $260 billion frozen assets to cover the cost of rebuilding Ukraine.
And this is the key point: the rebuilding will involve projects carried out by European companies and funded by European banks and investors, to be paid from the $260 billion. Thus the EU private sector will ultimately benefit the most from the rebuilding.
Biden left the US without such a solution by giving the money away to Ukraine with ‘no strings attached’. Thus Trump creating a $500 billion fund should be understood as analog to Europe’s $260 billion. While some of the $500 billion (or part thereof) will no doubt be to repay the US Treasury, is likely most will be allocated to compensate US companies, now deeply entrenched in Ukraine since 2015 for rebuilding projects conducted by US companies and financed by US banks. US companies’ exit costs and future losses may also be reimbursed from the funds
Any who doubt how deeply entrenched US business interests are today in Ukraine should just refer to the local business chambers of commerce throughout the major cities of Ukraine. They will find hundreds of subsidiaries of US corporations, let alone Ukraine businesses now indirectly owned by western banks and investors. The penetration of US capital into Ukraine has been going on for more than a decade, since 2014 when US neocon, Victoria Nuland, was made ‘economic czar’ for Ukraine by its parliament that year. A flood of US capital and companies followed. Trump’s $500 billion fund is destined to address their interests as well as assist & subsidize new US capital in the rebuilding of Ukraine.
In other words, all the debate and talk in Europe about what to do with Russia’s $260 billion frozen assets and the Trump $500 billion proposal to get Ukraine to share its mineral wealth is really about how the spoils of war get distributed and to whose interests—i.e. Europe’s, the USA’s and their respective business interests.
It’s not coincidental that Putin has publicly suggested the door would once again open to US capital investment in Russia after a deal.
Moreover, Trump plans to extend the wealth transfer from those areas of Ukraine now part of Russia in the east. Zelensky’s Ukraine cannot ensure any wealth sharing from those regions lost to Russia. But Trump striking a deal with Russia for US companies to participate in the reconstruction in east Ukraine’s four provinces now part of Russia is a further phase of the deal to exploit the reconstruction of Ukraine. Less directly as well, any agreements with Russia over terms of trade with Russia in general. It’s not coincidental that Putin has publicly suggested the door would once again open to US capital investment in Russia after a deal.
There’s no doubt both Trump’s $500 billion and Europe’s $260 billion will eventually be part of any negotiated settlement to the war. Neither deal can be finalized until it is clear there is some final settlement, since how much dollars and Euros, in what form of investment, and for whose benefit cannot be decided until the war on the ground is over. And that’s yet to be determined although the endgame in military terms is drawing near.
However, military force is just an extension of political strategies and interests and the latter are still in flux. But a sure sign the political endgame is also approaching is when the economic interests behind the political forces begin to be discussed and clarified. And that’s what the minerals sharing deal is about, as well as the maneuvering of US and Europeans with regard to negotiations.
The wolves are beginning to devour the carcass and are snapping and growling at each other to determine who gets to eat first and how much.
By the minerals deal and by economic negotiations with Russia underway, the USA plans to eat its full share one way or another. The Europeans can have a bite as well, but must wait their turn. As the ‘alpha’ wolf, the US will take the biggest bite out of Ukraine and if Europe doesn’t like it they can go find another prey.
About the Author
J
ack Rasmus is author of the recently published book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump’, Clarity Press, 2020. He publishes at Predicting the Global Economic Crisis.
