Understanding the Rise of High Technology in China

March 24, 2025

China has recently showed the world its DeepSeek technology that performs better than the U.S. AI Chat GPT and did so at a fraction of cost. An open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model developed by Chinese, offering similar performance to other leading models at a fraction of the cost. However, the breakthrough has not been without controversy.

I. Introduction

It is fascinating to examine China’s rapid development of new technologies and scientific research in recent years. This evolution not only provides insight into the nature of its progress but also highlights its impact on global economic shifts and its challenge to nearly three centuries of Western hegemony (Siddiqui, 2024a). Moreover, the proliferation of new technologies and the increased access to higher education for the Chinese people are driving productivity and growth, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese products in global markets (Siddiqui, 2024b).

While the United States (U.S.) government offers substantial subsidies and tax cuts to its large corporations, the country continues to face a decline in productive investments. Many U.S. companies struggle to innovate and are often reluctant to invest in technological development—a crucial factor for continuous progress. Additionally, monopolistic ownership structures can hinder the diffusion of knowledge for the public good. Rather than relying on Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) to maintain a leadership position, continuous innovation should be prioritized, as overreliance on IPRs may inadvertently stifle the spread of new ideas.

China has better financial regulated sector to promote and allocated money favouring social need and investments and the country has been able to introduce socially benefitted technology without private profits being an obstacle

Economic crises often trigger a process known as creative destruction, wherein outdated industries and technologies are replaced by new ones, paving the way for fresh growth (Siddiqui, 2023). For example, the advent of computers more than twenty-five years ago in the U.S. revolutionized productivity and transformed business operations both domestically and globally. As Joseph Schumpeter (1942) described it, this “process of industrial mutation… [that] instantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, destroying the old one and creating a new one” exemplifies how innovation drives economic evolution.

Since the adoption of neoliberalism and globalisation in the 1980, the U.S. economy has gone through a huge sectoral change in its economy, where gradually the contribution of manufacturing has declined while the financial sector has increased in terms of revenue and employment generation. And investment and high skills are increasingly allocated to financial innovation, not industrial innovation.

Why China is succeeding and not the U.S. Under capitalism prime motivation is maximise profits and not for producing cutting edge technology (Siddiqui, 2022). Moreover, China has better financial regulated sector to promote and allocated money favouring social need and investments and the country has been able to introduce socially benefitted technology without private profits being an obstacle (So and Chu, 2015).

In the U.S. the rate of profit in different sectors decides future investment and private profits play important role in the investment decision of the capitalists but in China government decides, not capitalists, to invest in cutting edge technology. Government steps in to invest in crucial sector and as a result, the country has adopted better technology system and innovations.

China has developed a huge industrial base and has become an important global industrial power and needs more human development, equality and better environment. China has world’s 20% population and only 5% of the world’s arable lands (Siddiqui, 2024c). Therefore, land and water conservation, ecology and innovation of technology is crucial towards sustainable development.

Moreover, China has recently showed the world its DeepSeek technology that performs better than the U.S. AI Chat GPT and did so at a fraction of cost. An open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model developed by Chinese, offering similar performance to other leading models at a fraction of the cost. However, the breakthrough has not been without controversy. The AI assistant surpassed ChatGPT to become the top-rated free app on the U.S. Apple App Store, affecting the market values of major tech companies, including Nvidia. DeepSeek has claimed it’s as powerful as ChatGPT’s model in tasks like mathematics and coding, but uses less memory, cutting costs.

II. Why is China Succeeding While the U.S. is Falling Behind?

Since the adoption of neoliberalism and globalization in the 1980s, the U.S. economy has undergone a significant sectoral shift. Over time, the contribution of manufacturing has declined, while the financial sector has expanded in terms of revenue and employment. Increasingly, investment and highly skilled labour have been directed toward financial innovation rather than industrial innovation (So and Chu, 2015).

Under capitalism, the primary motivation is profit-maximization rather than the development of cutting-edge technology. In the U.S., the rate of profit across different sectors determines future investments, as private profits play a crucial role in capitalists’ investment decisions. In contrast, China takes a different approach—investment in cutting-edge technology is decided by the government rather than private capitalists. The Chinese government actively invests in crucial sectors, fostering a more effective system for technological advancement and innovation. Moreover, China’s regulated financial sector directs resources toward social needs and strategic investments, ensuring that technological advancements benefit society rather than being hindered by private profit motives (Siddiqui, 2023).

China has built a massive industrial base, positioning itself as a major global industrial power. However, for continued progress, the country must focus on social equality, and environmental sustainability. Its controlled market economy has yielded better results in fostering new technologies and innovations than the U.S.-led neoliberal model, debunking the myth that only private capitalists can drive innovation. For instance, China is leading in various emerging technologies, including solar panels, artificial intelligence (AI), and electric vehicles.

Recently, China showcased its DeepSeek technology, which has demonstrated superior performance compared to the U.S.-based AI model ChatGPT—and at a fraction of the cost. Developed as an open-source AI model, DeepSeek delivers comparable results to leading AI systems while significantly reducing expenses. However, this breakthrough has not been without controversy. DeepSeek quickly surpassed ChatGPT as the top-rated free app on the U.S. Apple App Store, impacting the market value of major tech companies, including Nvidia. The developers of DeepSeek claim that their AI assistant rivals OpenAI’s GPT-4 model in tasks such as mathematics and coding, while requiring significantly less memory and cutting costs. Notably, training the AI system reportedly cost less than $6 million in Nvidia’s computing power.

The developers of DeepSeek claim that their AI assistant rivals OpenAI’s GPT-4 model in tasks such as mathematics and coding, while requiring significantly less memory and cutting costs.

In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world (Siddiqui, 2009). However, the economic reforms undertaken that year aimed to open the economy to foreign investment and technology while implementing domestic policies to foster competition and entrepreneurship in the agricultural and industrial sectors. These reforms spurred rapid industrial growth over the last four decades. As a result, China’s economic growth rates have consistently outpaced those of the United States and the European Union, leading to a significant global shift in economic power.

During the 1980s, when China welcomed foreign corporations, it also negotiated favourable deals regarding technology transfers and long-term investments. Over the years, Chinese companies have successfully advanced in key technological sectors such as electronics, machinery, automobiles, high-speed railways, and aviation. Additionally, China has been a driving force in emerging technologies, including renewable energy, advanced nuclear power, next-generation telecommunications, supercomputing, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and space exploration.

A 2024 study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) used a tool called the Critical Technology Tracker to analyse 64 key technologies over the past 25 years. The study found that China has made significant progress in 52 of these 64 critical technological areas, particularly in the last decade. Chinese companies such as Huawei and Alibaba exemplify this rapid technological advancement (ASPI, 2024).

In 2003, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that a major objective of his government was to promote industrial innovation through technological development, cutting-edge research, and enhanced productive forces.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the U. S. is losing its technological edge to China. According to a 2024 study by ASPI, China currently leads in 37 out of 44 key technologies, including electric batteries, hypersonics, and advanced radio-frequency communications such as 5G and 6G. In contrast, the U. S. remains dominant in only seven fields, including vaccines, quantum computing, and space launch systems. Furthermore, in 2022, the Chinese government allocated 20% of its budget to education, while Chinese households also invested heavily in education—amounting to nearly 50% of the government’s education budget. China has the highest number of students studying overseas globally, and the proportion of these students returning to China has been steadily increasing (Hurst, 2023).

China’s investment in science and technology research has risen sharply in recent years (See Figure 1). In 2024, the government announced a further 10% increase in funding. Additionally, the country is training a vast number of scientists. In 2020, Chinese universities awarded 1.4 million engineering degrees—seven times more than the U. S. did that year. China is now a leading scientific power, with its researchers producing some of the world’s most advanced work, particularly in chemistry, physics, and materials science (Economist, 2024).

Figure 1: Research and Development Expenditure in China, 2007–2021 (as a percentage of GDP).

Source: Great Wall Enterprise Institute, Research and Development Expenditure in China. https://daxueconsulting.com/market-of-high-tech-in-china/

Globally, the annual research share across 64 critical technologies (see Figure 2) reveals China’s rapid advancements in both emerging technologies and high-impact research. In recent years, China’s share in these fields has grown sharply, setting it apart from other developed economies. While China’s average research share across these 64 technologies has steadily increased, many other major developed nations have experienced declines in their contributions to these cutting-edge areas. This trend is likely to have significant repercussions for productivity, economic growth, trade, and overall economic performance. (Siddiqui, 2021a).

Figure 2: Average Annual Research Share of Major Economies Across 64 Technologies (2003–2023).

China has experienced a significant rise in its high-tech sector, rapidly emerging as a global leader in advanced technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, solar panels, and electric vehicles. This surge is largely driven by substantial government investments in research and development, a strategic focus on manufacturing, and an increased share in the production of high-value commodities. Initiatives like “Made in China 2025” have bolstered market penetration, allowing Chinese firms to capture significant global market share in various tech industries.

In addition, China has made notable progress in new technological fields, including high-performance computing, advanced integrated circuit design, and semiconductor chips. Despite these successes, the U.S. continues to lead in areas such as quantum computing, vaccines and medical countermeasures, nuclear medicine and radiotherapy, and genetic engineering. Today, Chinese companies are heavily investing in cutting-edge areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, and renewable energy. Prominent tech giants such as Huawei, Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are spearheading these efforts.

Table 1: High Tech Industry in China: Sector Ranking by Revenue, 2023 (in RMB and US$).

Sector	Revenue (in RMB)	Revenue (in US$)
Information Technology	10.1 trillion	1.47 trillion
Advanced Manufacturing	2.6 trillion	380 billion
Renewable Energy	2.5 trillion	360 billion
Telecommunications	1.5 trillion	220 billion
Biotechnology	621 billion	90 billion
Aerospace	300 billion	44 billion

Source:https://daxueconsulting.com/market-of-high-tech-in-china/

According to recent statistics, China’s high-tech industry was valued at over RMB 26.6 trillion (US$ 3.88 trillion) in 2023. Notably, the data industries experienced nearly 10% average annual growth—a trend expected to continue through 2025 that could push the overall industry value to nearly RMB 35 trillion (US$ 5.11 trillion). Additionally, the advanced manufacturing and renewable energy sectors have grown rapidly, contributing RMB 2.6 trillion (US$ 380 billion) and RMB 2.5 trillion (US$ 360 billion) respectively (see Table 1).

Meanwhile, traditional economic powers such as the UK are struggling to keep pace with the swift transformation in research and development. Recent data indicate that the UK has dropped out of the top five rankings in eight technologies, with its presence declining from 44 instances last year to 36 this year—primarily in fields related to advanced materials, sensing, and space.

In contrast, the European Union (EU) remains a major player in top-tier research and technology. Over the past five years, the U.S., China, and the EU have consistently ranked among the world’s top five countries across all 64 key technologies. Other second-tier nations have maintained steady performance: Germany ranks in the top five in 27 technologies, South Korea in 24, Italy in 15, and Japan in 8.

In advanced technology sectors, leading U.S. corporations are setting benchmarks in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and natural language processing. For example, IBM now ranks first in quantum computing, while Google leads in natural language processing and places fourth in quantum computing. Additionally, Meta and Microsoft rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in natural language processing.

China, meanwhile, has emerged as a major economic force with profound global influence. It is the world’s second-largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity (PPP), accounting for 20% of the global economy in PPP terms in 2023. Representing around 10% of world trade, China’s exports and imports have grown at an average rate of 15% annually since 1979—more than double the global trade expansion rate over the same period. Today, China is the largest global exporter of manufactured goods and remains at the centre of ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., particularly following tariff announcements during the Trump administration.

China’s dominance in manufacturing is striking. It contributes nearly 35% of total global manufacturing output, compared to 16% for the U.S., 7% for Japan, 5% for Germany, and smaller shares for South Korea, India, Italy, France, and the UK. In 2022, China was the largest exporter—with goods valued at $2.7 trillion—and the second-largest importer of goods, at $2.35 trillion, with over 40% of its manufactured products sold overseas (IMF, 2023).

However, this rapid industrialization has environmental consequences. As the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂), China plays a key role in global climate change mitigation. In response, the country has implemented policies aimed at decarbonization, achieving a 48.4% reduction in carbon intensity by 2021 compared to 2005 levels (Siddiqui, 2024e).

III. International Trade and Economic Expansion

International trade has been a crucial driver of China’s rapid output growth, especially since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 (Siddiqui, 2023). In 2023, China was the world’s largest exporter, accounting for 13.7% of global merchandise exports, and the second-largest importer after the U.S., with a 9.3% share of global merchandise imports. In 2023, China emerged as the most significant importer of crude oil, representing over 20% of the world’s total crude oil imports by value. Additionally, it is a major importer of commodities such as aluminium, coal, copper, and iron ore—factors that give China considerable influence over global market prices. As the top trading partner for more than 120 countries, China’s robust trade activity is further underscored by its huge trade surplus, which reached US$577 billion in 2023. This surplus—US$384 billion with the U.S. and US$366 billion with the EU—has become a key point of tension in its international relationships.

China has also taken significant steps to expand its economic activities abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega infrastructural project launched in 2013. Involving over 60 countries with total investments of US$200 billion, the BRI is designed to boost global output, employment, and trade. It aims to reduce China’s dependence on sea trade routes dominated by the U.S. and to open new export markets for its growing industries. Despite some setbacks in implementation, the BRI is expected to play a transformative role in the future of world trade (Siddiqui, 2019).

Over the last four decades, China has experienced a dramatic surge in manufacturing—especially in sectors such as steel, automobiles, electronics, machinery, and textiles. These strengths have consistently placed China at the forefront of global manufacturing output. (Siddiqui, 2018).

In contrast, the U. S. remains a major manufacturing power. In 2023, U.S. manufacturing contributed over US$2.5 trillion, accounting for 12% of the nation’s economic activity and a significant share of its exports. The U.S. is renowned for its advanced manufacturing techniques and high-quality products.

Over the last four decades, China has experienced a dramatic surge in manufacturing—especially in sectors such as steel, automobiles, electronics, machinery, and textiles.

Japan, with a population of 120 million, has built a reputation for its rich manufacturing heritage and advanced technology. As the third-largest manufacturing country, Japan generated US$1.2 trillion in manufacturing output in 2023. Its major export industries include consumer electronics, automobiles, computers, and semiconductors. Japan’s emphasis on precision and quality makes it a preferred destination for high-tech manufacturing.

Germany, Europe’s leading manufacturing nation with 83 million people, contributed approximately US$930 billion in manufacturing output in 2023. Renowned for its engineering expertise and robust industrial base, Germany is a key global player—especially in the automotive, machinery, and chemical sectors—owing to its efficiency and innovative practices.

India, home to 1.4 billion people, has seen a remarkable surge in trade, generating US$560 billion from manufacturing in 2023. Known for its strong IT workforce and expanding customer service sector, India is rapidly enhancing its manufacturing capabilities. Government initiatives and a large, skilled labour pool have contributed to steady growth in India’s diverse manufacturing sector, which spans textiles, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, positioning it as a dynamic arena for expanding business opportunities (Siddiqui, 2021b).

South Korea is another key contributor to high-tech industries. In 2023, its manufacturing output reached US$530 billion, with major exports including electrical equipment, automobiles, and petroleum products. South Korea’s advanced manufacturing techniques, strategic geographic location, and highly educated workforce reinforce its status as a significant manufacturing hub in Asia.

Russia, endowed with vast natural resources and a strong engineering tradition, contributed US$360 billion to global manufacturing output in 2023. With key sectors in aerospace, defence, and energy equipment, Russia’s manufacturing industry remains vital for its economic stability and growth. Despite various challenges, its focus on heavy industries and technology ensures that Russia continues to be a key player in global manufacturing.

IV. Conclusion

The development of new technologies alongside environmental protection underscores a critical shortcoming in the capitalist model. Relying on free markets and expecting capitalists to drive innovation for the common good has proven insufficient for achieving long-term, sustainable progress. Short-term, profit-driven interests tend to prioritize cost minimization and immediate returns, often at the expense of essential long-term investments in environmental protection and societal welfare.

In contrast, China’s model of government intervention and long-term planning has demonstrated greater success (Siddiqui, 2024d). Although the U.S. government provides substantial subsidies and tax breaks to large corporations, these measures have not stemmed a decline in productive investments. Moreover, U.S. corporations are often reluctant to invest in continuous technological development, and monopolistic practices can hinder the broad diffusion of innovative technologies that benefit society.

China’s approach, wherein the government directs investments in cutting-edge technology rather than leaving such decisions solely to market forces, has enabled the country to develop a robust industrial base. This strategic allocation of resources has allowed China to introduce socially beneficial technologies without private profit motives impeding progress. For example, China has emerged as a leader in sectors such as solar panels, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles. A notable breakthrough is the recent unveiling of DeepSeek technology—an open-source AI model developed in China that reportedly outperforms its U.S. counterpart, ChatGPT, at a fraction of the cost.

In summary, China’s state-regulated financial system and targeted investments have not only bolstered its position as a global industrial power but have also enabled it to align technological advancements with broader social needs. This approach highlights the potential benefits of long-term public investment and strategic planning over the constraints of short-term profit-driven models.

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About the Author

Dr. Kalim Siddiqui is an economist specializing in International Political Economy, Development Economics, Trade and Economic Policy. Since 1989, he has been teaching economics at various universities in Norway and the UK. Dr. Siddiqui’s research interests encompass a wide range of topics, including political economy, international trade, and economic history, South Asia, and emerging economies. He has presented papers at international conferences across numerous countries, reflecting his global engagement in the field. His scholarly pursuits span six broad domains: Political Economy, Development Economics, Economic History, Economic Policy, Globalization, and International Trade. Dr. Siddiqui has made significant contributions to research in areas such as trade policy, globalization, and political economy. His work has been published in chapters of edited books and articles published in peer-reviewed journals. For inquiries, Dr. Siddiqui can be reached at: [email protected]

References

ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute). (2024) Critical technology tracker: two decades of data show rewards of long-term research investment. https://www.aspi.org.au/opinion/critical-technology-tracker-two-decades-data-show-rewards-long-term-research-investment
Economist (2024) “China has become a scientific superpower”, June 15, London.
Hurst, D. (2023) “China leading US in technology race in all but a few fields, thinktank finds”, Guardian, March 2, London.
IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2023) World Economic Outlook Database, April, Washington DC. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April
Siddiqui, K. (2024a) “The Decline of the West and Global Political Economy”, World Financial Review, December, p.4-18.
Siddiqui, K. (2024b) “China’s Growth Miracle and Development Strategy Since the 1980s”, World Financial Review, December, p.11-25.
Siddiqui, K. (2024c) “Impact of Population Changes and Economic Growth in China and India”, World Financial Review, November, p.1-13.
Siddiqui, K. (2024d) “The BRICS Expansion and the End of Western Economic and Geopolitical Dominance”, World Financial Review, November, p.6-18.
Siddiqui, K. (2024e) “Climate Change, Capitalism, and Invisible Hands of the Market: A Critical Review”, World Financial Review, June, p.2-13.
Siddiqui, K. (2023) “Marxian Analysis of Capitalism and Crises”, International Critical Thought, 13(4):525-545.
Siddiqui, K. (2022) “Capitalism, Imperialism, and Crisis”, European Financial Review, June-July, p. 16 – 32.
Siddiqui, K. (2021a) “Trade Liberalisation, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Development: A Historical Perspective” World Financial Review, May-June, p.65 – 74.
Siddiqui, K. (2021b) “The Importance of Industrialisation in Developing Countries” World Financial Review, January February, p. 60 – 73
Siddiqui, K. (2019). “One Belt and One Road, China’s Massive Infrastructure Project to Boost Trade and Economy: An Overview” International Critical Thought 9(2): 214 – 235.
Siddiqui, K. (2018). “David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage and Developing Countries: Myth and Reality” International Critical Thought, 8(3): 1-28, September.
Siddiqui, K. (2009). “The Political Economy of Growth in China and India”, Journal of Asian Public Policy 1(2): 17-35.
So, A.Y. and Chu, Y. (2015) The Global Rise of China, Cambridge: Polity Press.

Duterte’s Rendition, PH Political Turmoil and the ICC’s Dilemma

March 24, 2025

By Dan Steinbock

On Thursday, the Philippines saw hours of political drama that left masses of Filipinos angry and ICC observers perplexed. The Duterte rendition could have long-lasting, adverse consequences in both the Philippines and the ICC.

In the Senate’s much-anticipated Duterte detention hearing on Thursday, Senator Imee Marcos, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, interviewed the key cabinet members of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., her brother. One by one, Marcos contrasted their responses with prior interviews, ICC and Interpol documents, highlighting deep gaps between official statements and actual realities.

In a telling moment, Secretary of Interior Jonvic Remulla said the government did not “plot” Duterte’s arrest prior to March 11. Then, Senator Marcos showed Remulla’s prior TV interview in which the minister acknowledged that he, the president, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Security Adviser Eduardo Año set the arrest of Duterte in motion.

Troubling inconsistencies

Secretary Año said the claims that he, along with the president, Justice Secretary Crispin Remulla, and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, had conspired to plan Duterte’s arrest were untrue. He was unaware of any coordination with the ICC and learned of the Interpol notice on March 11. Yet, Marcos cited Interpol’s communication stating the arrest was made “with prior consultation with the Philippine government.”

Año also said that any meeting regarding this matter occurred only after they were made aware of Interpol’s “red notice” for the former president’s arrest. Yet, the country’s transnational crime (PCTC) director Anthony Alcantara admitted the Interpol did not issue a red notice against Duterte, only a diffusion notice; that is, not a notice needed to undertake a provisional arrest, but a lower-level alert for information sharing.

Justice Secretary Remulla contradicted his 2024 statement under oath before another Senate hearing that any ICC arrest order or Interpol notice should be brought before local courts. Instead, Duterte was pushed forcefully into, oddly, a private plane by Police Maj. Gen. Nicolas Torre III, after Duterte’s lawyer was handcuffed.

Vice President Sara Duterte said her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was taken into custody “without a valid warrant issued by a Philippine court, without due process.” The ICC is being used for political persecution “to demolish the opposition” prior to the 2025 and 2028 elections.

As legal scholar Alexis F. Medina concluded in his prior opinion and during the hearing, the arrest of the former president raises “several critical constitutional concerns – due process, warrantless arrests, and liberty of abode, among others.”

During the weekend, Sen. Imee Marcos said that she hasn’t had a conversation with her brother, President Marcos Jr., in a long time.

The ICC’s original compromise

In the 1990s, the special tribunals established by the UN Security Council to prosecute crimes in the Balkans and Rwanda fostered efforts to create a permanent court. The International Criminal Court (ICC) was the international community’s response to renewed atrocities and ethnic conflict. But it was constrained at birth.

In the 1998 Rome Conference, the scope of the court’s jurisdiction was one of the most intensely debated topics. Many NGOs and rights organizations advocated universal jurisdiction. By contrast, the United States and some of its allies advocated jurisdiction based on UN Security Council authorization.

In the subsequent compromise between the idealists and the realists, the ICC would have jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed on the territory of a member state, by the national of a member state, or in other situations when the Security Council has authorized court action.

This compromise allows the court to investigate and prosecute the nationals of a non-member state; as in the case of Philippines.

Allegations of partiality: Kenya, Uhuru and ICC

Cognizant of its limitations, the ICC began its operations cautiously in 2003. It moved ahead only when the country in question had requested court intervention (Congo DR, Central African Republic, Uganda) or when the UN Security Council had authorized the role of the court.

Despite increasing international divides in the early 2010s, the ICC’s pattern changed when its prosecutor launched its first investigation without explicit state support, against President Uhuru Kenyatta (who eventually beat the case). In the messy case involving lucrative external interests, the line between legitimate prosecution and political persecution grew thin.

Many African nations regard the court, which has largely focused only on the poor, resource-rich countries of Africa, as a “toy of declining imperial powers.”

Yet, the ICC didn’t take a step back. Its ambitious prosecutors ignored caution engaging in investigations, which brought the court into direct contests with several non-member states, including Russia, Libya, Myanmar, U.S. in Afghanistan, and more recently, Israel in Gaza. The results were predictable.

In two decades, the prosecutor has secured convictions in only 4 cases, typically in cases against citizens of member countries. Cases against non-member state nationals have yielded almost nothing.

Rising tensions

Oddly, the role of Martin Romualdez, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, in the ongoing dynastic debacles has been largely excluded in international media, even though in domestic debate it is seen as vital to the turmoil.

Moreover, the Marcos/Duterte debacle is characterized as a battle of “two political dynasties.” Yet, the Dutertes have neither the economic resources nor the links of President Marcos Jr with the financial elites. After his victory, the president convened some of the country’s “boldest business minds” to “strengthen synergies” between the private and public sectors. To Marcos champions, the “billionaire club’s” role is only advisory. To Duterte supporters, it is reminiscent of Marcos Sr’s cronies.

Furthermore, the government’s mounting debacles – murky budget items and eroding economy, outsourcing of military sovereignty to rotational US bases, perceived illicit measures in Duterte’s expulsion – have stirred growing resentment among the populace.

The government insists it is only observing international pressures. Yet, critics argue that some cabinet members have violated the Philippine constitution and its Cooperation Agreement with the ICC. The ICC observers fear its procedures may have been undermined.

Given the present course, the 2010s Uhuru/ICC pattern – domestic political rivalry offshored to the ICC, uncertainty in domestic economy, detrimental geopolitics and weaker economic prospects – may now be evolving in the Philippines.

The original page-one op-ed was published by The Manila Times on March 24, 2025.

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

Beyond Sunscreen: The Growing Concern Over UV Filters in Everyday Cosmetics

March 24, 2025

Back in 2022, the European Union conducted a study that highlighted the real risks UV filters pose to the environment, notably through seawater contamination. These controversial chemical compounds designed to disperse UV light are ubiquitous in sunscreens and lotions but are increasingly found in other personal care and cosmetic products. There are growing concerns about their effects on public health.

The omnipresence of sunscreen products in our daily lives has meant their ingredients have long been the subject of intense scrutiny due to their potential risks, including the negative effects of UV filters. Concerns have been growing for some time, especially regarding how these chemicals may be interfering with our bodies’ hormone systems due to the presence of endocrine disruptors. While sunscreens have long been in the spotlight, an equally significant issue is the growing presence of UV filters in everyday cosmetic products. These filters, initially intended for sun protection, have quietly infiltrated a wide range of items that we use daily.

The use of UV filters has become so widespread that it is difficult to find a cosmetic product on the market that doesn’t contain some form of sun protection. While the most obvious inclusion is sunscreens, the presence of UV filters in other products – ranging from anti-aging creams to lip balms and even perfumes – is growing rapidly. As consumers, we may not associate these products with sun protection, but they often contain chemical compounds such as avobenzone and octinoxate, which have been signaled as endocrine disruptors. These ingredients, initially designed to absorb or block ultraviolet rays, are now standard components in many non-sunscreen products.

Health risks and public pushback

Endocrine disruptors are chemicals that can interfere with the body’s hormonal systems, leading to various health issues, including fertility problems, developmental disorders, and certain cancers. These risks are well-documented. Over the years, numerous studies and public campaigns have raised awareness about the harmful effects of sunscreen ingredients on human health. For example, in 2021 a study by Valisure, an independent laboratory, detected benzene—a known human carcinogen—in 27% of the sunscreen products they tested, with some batches containing up to triple the FDA’s conditionally restricted limit of 2 parts per million (ppm). This discovery prompted voluntary recalls by major sunscreen brands implicated in the testing.

These substances, which were originally formulated to block UV rays, now pose a silent and pervasive threat to consumers who may be unaware of the risks. Moreover, the incorporation of these filters into a wider range of cosmetic products is often overlooked or not sufficiently labeled, leaving consumers unknowingly exposed to harmful chemicals.

One common endocrine disruptor found in cosmetic products is avobenzone. Research has shown that, when absorbed into the skin, this can lead to systemic exposure, meaning the chemical enters the bloodstream and spreads throughout the body. This poses significant health risks, especially when used regularly. Octinoxate, another common UV filter, has also been shown to disrupt thyroid function and interfere with hormone production. Studies on the direct impact of avobenzone on human health are still few and far between, one study on zebrafish larvae has indicated that exposure to the chemical led to significant changes in thyroid hormone levels and the expression of genes associated with the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis, suggesting potential thyroid endocrine disruption. There is a growing body of evidence underlining the dangers of these ingredients, many consumers continue to use products containing them without realizing the potential harm they may be causing.

Indeed, the raising of public awareness about such issues has led to the creation of groups like the PASS Coalition—a group comprising public health organizations, dermatologists, and sunscreen product companies—advocates for more efficient regulatory pathways. Around the world, the media is beginning to highlight the pervasive effects of endocrine disruptors on things like fertility, or the threats they may be posing to child development. Films like the 2019 American Canadian documentary Toxic Beauty have helped raise awareness about malpractice within the cosmetics industry and the health risks associated with cosmetic products. This has led to public pressure, which has achieved some regulatory evolution in the United States, with the FDA reclassifying oxybenzone in 2021, stating that it is no longer generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE) due to insufficient safety data. Since 2021, for the FDA, 11 other UV filters are no longer GRASE. These include octinoxate and avobenzone.

UV filters in perfumes

But there is another category of cosmetics where UV filters/endocrine disruptors are present, and their more frequent use compared to sunscreens may make them even more harmful to public health: perfumes. The overwhelming majority of perfumes (over 80%) contain UV filters like avobenzone. This chemical filter absorbs UVA rays and has long been considered a necessary ingredient in many sunscreen formulations. But its inclusion in perfumes highlights a much larger problem: consumers who use perfumes regularly are unknowingly exposed to a substance that can disrupt their endocrine system and lead to long-term health effects.

While we typically associate perfumes with fragrance and not with sun protection, this pervasive inclusion of UV filters, added to protect the product itself from UV rays and often without adequate consumer awareness, also raises significant concerns. Perfumes are often used multiple times a day, and their chemical content is absorbed directly into the skin and through the respiratory system. This frequent, low-level exposure amplifies the risks associated with UV filter usage, due to bioaccumulation in the body.

The regulatory landscape and the urgent need to go further

The regulation of UV filters in cosmetics is inconsistent, with the U.S. lagging behind the European Union. While the EU mandates full ingredient disclosure under Regulation (EC) No 1223/2009, the U.S. FDA classifies sunscreens as OTC drugs, requiring labeling for active ingredients but not for UV filters in other cosmetics. This lack of transparency leaves consumers unaware of potential endocrine disruptors. The FDA has approved only 17 UV filters, compared to 27 in the EU, highlighting the need for stricter, more harmonized regulations to protect public health.

Fortunately, while regulatory bodies are still lagging in defending public health, and struggling to take initiatives, concerted actions by organizations like the Women’s Voices for the Earth (WVE) have led to significant positive developments in the regulation of endocrine disruptors in cosmetics. For instance, in 2020, California enacted the Cosmetic Fragrance and Flavor Ingredient Right to Know Act, making it the first government worldwide to require public disclosure of hazardous fragrance and flavor ingredients. Similarly, in 2019, New York passed a bill mandating that manufacturers disclose ingredients in menstrual products, marking the first such requirement in the United States. Concrete action can therefore be effective in driving regulatory changes for the benefit of consumers.

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How Can Private Companies Keep Their Culture Strong After the Founder Leaves? Here’s What Works

March 24, 2025

For many private companies, the founder is more than just a leader—they are the heart of the business, the driving force behind the company’s mission, and the one who sets the tone for company culture. But what happens when that founder steps away?

Too often, businesses lose their identity after a leadership transition, struggling to maintain the same values, vision, and workplace culture that made them successful in the first place. However, the most forward-thinking companies are already taking steps to ensure that their culture remains intact long after the founder exits.

Hiring the Right People Early on Makes a Difference

A strong culture doesn’t start when a founder leaves—it starts the moment a business begins hiring its first employees. The foundation of company culture is built on who gets hired, how they work together, and whether they align with the company’s values. Founders who prioritize hiring and culture early on set their companies up for long-term stability, ensuring that the organization’s core beliefs are ingrained in every level of the business.

Building a strong team from the start means looking beyond just skills and experience. While technical ability matters, hiring employees who believe in the company’s mission and contribute to a positive work environment is even more critical. Employees who are deeply connected to the company’s values become cultural anchors, keeping the workplace steady even when leadership changes.

ESOPs Help Companies Preserve Culture Long-Term

One of the most powerful tools for maintaining company culture after a founder exits is an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). Many businesses think of ownership transitions in terms of outside buyers or leadership handovers, but for many, exploring ESOP valuation for private companies can offer a better path—one that keeps the company’s values, mission, and culture intact. This valuation helps the business determine the

An ESOP allows employees to gradually take ownership of the company, ensuring that those who know the business best—its employees—are the ones guiding its future. When employees have an ownership stake, they have a vested interest in maintaining the culture that made the company successful in the first place. They aren’t just workers; they become stewards of the business’s legacy.

Clear Company Values can Outlast a Founder

A founder’s leadership style plays a significant role in shaping company culture, but what happens when that leadership is gone? Businesses that fail to document and reinforce their values often struggle with identity shifts during transitions. However, companies that formalize their culture through written values, leadership training, and internal messaging ensure that their core beliefs remain strong long after the founder steps away.

Having a mission statement isn’t enough. The most successful private companies actively embed their values into daily operations, decision-making processes, and employee expectations. This means making sure leadership hires align with the company’s principles, reinforcing values in company-wide meetings, and integrating them into performance reviews.

Culture should not rely on one individual—it should be woven into the fabric of the company. Businesses that take a passive approach to company values risk losing their identity when leadership changes.

Leadership Development Ensures Culture Stays Strong

One mistake private companies make is focusing too much on the founder’s leadership while neglecting to develop future leaders who can carry the business forward. If a company’s culture is tied solely to one person’s influence, it risks falling apart when that person exits. However, businesses that invest in leadership development create continuity, ensuring that cultural values are upheld across generations.

Developing internal leadership pipelines means identifying employees who align with the company’s mission and preparing them for larger roles over time. This doesn’t just mean training programs—it means actively mentoring employees, giving them decision-making authority, and helping them develop the skills needed to guide the business forward.

Work Flexibility can Keep Culture Consistent

Workplace culture isn’t just about leadership and values—it’s also about how employees experience their work environment. Companies that want to maintain their culture long-term must recognize that work expectations are evolving. Flexibility, hybrid work models, and employee well-being initiatives are all becoming key factors in whether employees stay committed to a company’s culture or disengage.

Employees today expect more than just competitive salaries. They want workplaces that support their work-life balance, offer professional development, and create an environment where they feel valued. Companies that don’t adapt to these expectations often see cultural breakdowns as employees leave for organizations that prioritize their needs.

Ongoing Communication Keeps Culture Strong

Company culture doesn’t just happen—it requires ongoing communication, reinforcement, and leadership engagement. Private companies that want to sustain their culture long after the founder leaves must actively invest in communication strategies that ensure employees remain connected to the company’s mission and values.

This means more than just occasional emails or team meetings. Businesses that maintain strong cultures have ongoing, structured conversations about company goals, values, and employee contributions. Whether through town halls, feedback sessions, or team-building initiatives, keeping employees engaged in cultural discussions ensures that the company’s identity remains intact.

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If Grey Swans are Not on Your Risk Radar, They Should Be

March 23, 2025

By Matt Ince

These are challenging days for corporate risk teams. President Trump’s wide-ranging executive orders are creating jeopardy for multinationals all over the world. Possible tariff wars with Europe and China would probably require urgent supply chain mitigations. The suspension of USAID may destabilise certain emerging and frontier markets, necessitating crisis management contingencies.

Yet while Trump’s much-covered foreign policy interventions need to be monitored and assessed for their potential to hit business operations, they are by no means the only probable source of disruption over the coming months. Another, perhaps not as obvious or well-understood, is the growing potential for Grey Swan events to materialise. Many high-impact events that were once considered low probabilities, are now becoming more likely than ever before. There are several reasons for this, stemming from the breakdown of the rules-based international order and an expanding global democratic deficit.

Possible Grey Swan scenarios

The US administration’s withdrawal from its longstanding role as a global policeman is creating a security vacuum that is likely to be exploited by all manner of bad-faith state and non-state actors. Indeed, Russia’s hybrid war against European countries, aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and sanctions enforcement, could see an upsurge in sabotage activities, as US commitment to Europe diminishes. And the stuttering post-Covid recovery and creeping authoritarianism across the world has left many governments under pressure from disaffected publics, leaving them vulnerable to uprisings and coups.

Unlike Trump’s tariff threats, telegraphed long before his election victory, allowing corporates to begin to put in place contingencies, Grey Swan events are harder to forecast. Risk teams must identify and track indicators that point to their likelihood and employ scenario analysis techniques to access their potential impact on business operations. Yet better anticipation is not just about mitigating these risks, it lends companies a strategic advantage over competitors that might not be so well prepared.

Risk of devolving counter-terrorism

With Islamist insurgencies present across much of the Sahel, multinationals are acutely aware of the potential for terrorism and its associated disruption in the region and further afield. While counter-terrorism is likely to remain a priority for the US administration over the next few years, responsibility for its execution, especially in parts of Africa and the Middle East like Somalia and Syria, could be passed to less capable and often ill-equipped local and regional partners. This may in turn provide an opportunity for extremist groups to resurge in areas where they have been held in abeyance, while prompting other states like Russia to fill the security vacuum by increasing weapons sales to these regions.

So businesses with a footprint in these areas need to recognise that such a shift in US policy could compound the security challenges they already face in a number of countries –particularly the Horn of Africa and the Levant where Islamists may gain momentum and destabilise these whole regions. Senior executives alert to this possibility can make informed choices around their risk appetite for operating in these territories, and put in place mitigations to be able to ensure the continued safety of staff and assets.

New Russian threat – the hybrid menace

Russian sabotage of Baltic states’ undersea critical infrastructure and interference in the elections of Eastern European countries has been sowing discord and confusion in recent months. But now Putin may be emboldened to step up his hybrid war. This comes as the US signals that European security is no longer its primary focus, amid an evident rapprochement with Russia. With the US guardrails seemingly off, it is plausible that Putin will look to orchestrate a much higher impact event in northern Europe, such as an environmental disaster, which could take the form of a giant oil spill in a busy shipping lane or the contamination of national water supplies.

Such incidents may have seemed outlandish in the past, but they are now realistic possibilities and should be factored into crisis planning along with the other hybrid warfare tactics Russia has been deploying. Scenario planning and war-gaming exercises can help multinationals think through both the likely business disruption of an unprecedented Russian-instigated major incident and how it might be mitigated.

Authoritarian regimes vulnerable to coups

In recent years, multinationals will almost certainly have taken steps to reduce their exposure to coups in West and Central Africa. However, such political upheavals and their regional reverberations are now more likely in other parts of the world where the potential for business loss is far higher. This is especially so in South Asia, a commercial and supply chain hub. Here, the post-Covid economic downturn together with growing authoritarianism has left governments weak and vulnerable to sudden, unlawful seizures of power.

Last year saw the overthrow of the Bangladesh regime widely seen as corrupt and autocratic – the consequent political tremors reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. Bangladesh has moved closer to Pakistan and distanced itself from former ally India – where deposed Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina fled. India is concerned by the possibility of a military alliance between its neighbours, and has bolstered security on its border with Bangladesh.

The development is illustrative of how in the post-Covid era of instability, regions of the Global South once deemed relatively low-risk locations for multinational operations can quickly become crisis-prone. In the wake of the pandemic, boards that switched their supply chains from China to South Asia now find themselves facing new risks: political and economic uncertainty in Bangladesh and the possibility of disruption to cross-border trade should tensions between India and Bangladesh mount. The situation is very fluid and combustible, requiring close monitoring of developments, identification of escalation triggers, and the planning of contingencies in the event of business conditions worsening.

Recognising the potential for Grey-Swan events not only helps to secure multinationals’ operational resilience, it can also give them a strategic advantage. They would be able to act sooner and with greater confidence, offering a commercial edge over rivals who may find themselves feeling overwhelmed and less assured because they have not incorporated potential Grey Swans into their crisis planning processes. It can mean the difference between staying in an impacted region, better informed and prepared for the challenges, and being caught off guard, with exit the only option to minimise losses.

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About the Author

Matt Ince is an Associate Director at Dragonfly, a geopolitical and security intelligence firm. Within this role, he guides strategic intelligence activities and is the managing editor of Strategic Outlook, Dragonfly’s flagship annual intelligence estimate on geostrategic risks. Matt is also an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Prior to joining Dragonfly in January 2023, he spent almost a decade working within the UK’s national security community, leading analysis on emerging global risks.

Youth Employability and Entrepreneurship

March 23, 2025

By Chiedza Juru

The 2024 African Youth Survey showcased that most Africans have an entrepreneurial spirit and a clear vision for achieving their goals, but obstacles such as corruption and unemployment stand in their way. Chiedza Juru offers solutions and policy suggestions to help young Africans overcome these barriers to create strong futures for themselves and the continent that will be home to 42% of the world’s youth by 2030.  

The 2024 Africa Youth Survey revealed confidence among African youth about their future. Notably, 78% of youth have a clear vision for their life goals, with exceptionally high confidence in Chad, Rwanda, Kenya, and Zambia. This optimism extends to entrepreneurial ambitions, reflecting a generation eager to shape its destiny. However, challenges such as unemployment, corruption, and limited access to capital continue to impede progress.

The survey highlights the urgent issue of youth unemployment, with 73% of respondents struggling to find jobs. 40% also consider corruption to be a significant barrier to gainful employment. Meanwhile, 27% report inadequate government support, while 29% say there is a dearth of well-paying jobs.

These findings reveal a gap between African youth’s aspirations and their governments’ actions. While youth are eager to shape their futures, systemic obstacles hinder their progress. This calls for innovative solutions to bridge this gap and foster an environment where young people can thrive.

As the Founder and President of Annot Inc., I am dedicated to addressing these barriers through education, youth empowerment, and by leveraging the African diaspora’s support.

So, where do we begin? Enhancing access to capital is crucial for addressing youth unemployment. The World Economic Forum notes that Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) contribute about 50% of GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa and provide over 80% of the continent’s jobs.

Therefore, Youth entrepreneurship is critical to economic development, yet the survey indicates that 52% of youth view a lack of capital as the main barrier to starting a business. In fact, 45% of survey respondents said they would start a business if they had the funds.

This issue can be tackled by promoting venture capital led by Africans locally and in the diaspora. The Venture Capital Africa Report (March 2024) reveals a significant downturn in Africa’s venture capital ecosystem in 2023 due to a global decrease in startup funding. This shortfall forced many early-stage companies to cut back or close.

The exit of North American investors, accounting for half of the investment drop, underscores the cyclical nature of foreign investment in Africa. This highlights the urgent need for committed local investors who can support African entrepreneurs long-term. By investing in young entrepreneurs, Africans and the diaspora can spark job creation and economic growth.  

We harness the power of the African diaspora to drive meaningful change. Annot’s initiatives connect African youth with resources and mentorship from diaspora professionals, who offer financial support and valuable expertise. The diaspora plays a crucial role in fostering youth entrepreneurship on the continent. By leveraging their skills, networks, and resources, diaspora members can contribute significantly to job creation and economic development.

Initiatives such as diaspora bonds and investment funds can channel resources into impactful projects benefiting local communities. Additionally, diaspora professionals can serve as mentors and role models, sharing their experiences to inspire and guide the next generation of African business leaders. This investment and mentorship from the diaspora are essential for building a robust entrepreneurial ecosystem capable of sustaining long-term growth.  

African governments can implement several key policies to boost youth entrepreneurship further and enhance diaspora participation in economic development. Firstly, governments should create incentives for diaspora investment, such as tax breaks and streamlined regulations for diaspora-led businesses. Secondly, establishing dedicated entrepreneurship funds and grants for young people can ease financial barriers. Additionally, governments can foster public-private partnerships to develop incubation centers and innovation hubs that support young entrepreneurs. Finally, enhancing transparency and eliminating corruption in funding allocation will ensure that resources are used effectively to support and grow local businesses.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a game-changer for African youth. Opening up borders and promoting intra-African trade creates new opportunities for businesses and entrepreneurs. Youth can now access larger markets, diversify their products, and scale their operations across the continent. This not only boosts job creation but also fosters economic integration and collaboration. There is a need to fast-track the implementation of the AfCFTA.

Consideration to emigrate is increasingly at the forefront of African youth aspirations, with nearly three-in-five (58%) saying they are likely to consider relocating to another country in the next three years. The “brain drain” phenomenon has long been a concern for Africa, with talented individuals leaving the continent to search for better opportunities. We must turn this challenge into an advantage by promoting “brain gain.” By encouraging collaboration with diaspora professionals and creating conducive environments for their contributions, we can harness their expertise for the continent’s development.  

The Africa Youth Survey paints a picture of a generation ready to take control of their future, but systemic challenges hinder them. By addressing these barriers through innovative solutions and leveraging the power of the African diaspora, we can create a brighter future for African youth.

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About the Author

Chiedza Juru is the Founder and President of Annot Inc., a non-profit 501(c)(3) dedicated to unlocking the potential of young people through education, youth empowerment, and diaspora engagement. With over a decade of experience as an education and youth development specialist, she has spearheaded innovative programs that have benefited thousands of students in East and Southern Africa.

Why Cleaner Workplace Air Could Help Solve the UK’s Productivity Problem

March 23, 2025

By Ben Simons

Think of ‘air pollution’ and you’re probably conjuring images of a thick city smog, car exhausts and warm gusts of air on the train. You might assume that behind closed doors you’re relatively safe from these types of pollutants, especially when you’re at home and at work – but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Did you realise that many of the UK’s workplaces are actually dirtier than these types of outdoor spaces?

New research reveals just how contaminated workplace air can be, affecting us financially, physically and mentally. Given that most of us spend a significant portion of our lives indoors, it’s alarming how little attention is paid to this issue.

Yet, it remains an overlooked crisis. UK regulators lag far behind in safeguarding indoor air quality, leaving workers exposed and businesses facing a silent productivity drain.

Talking particulates

Particulate Matter (commonly abbreviated as PM) refers to a mixture of tiny particles and droplets suspended in the air. These particles can include dust, dirt, soot and smoke, as well as microscopic liquid droplets. PM is categorised based on size, with PM2.5 representing finer particles of 2.5 micrometres or smaller – tiny enough to penetrate deep into our lungs and even enter the bloodstream, and categorised by the WHO as carcinogenic. Graph 1

The team at Zehnder Clean Air Solutions recently carried out an air quality survey to assess how many of these PM2.5 particles are present in UK industrial workplaces compared to public spaces like bus and train stations.

The findings were shocking: UK workers are breathing air that is on average 63x more polluted than public spaces, including 78x higher than a train station and 92x worse than a bus station – just some peak values which exceed the average in places you’d assume are some of the worst hotspots for air pollution.

Exposure to this level of air pollution is not only a huge risk to business productivity (cleaning the facility from dust settled than doing actual work), but is creating a silent health crisis.

The silent killer

Workers exposed to high levels of PM2.5 concentration are at risk of developing serious health conditions and worsening pre-existing ones. UK employers must understand that poor air quality is having a direct impact on their workers, and it has become an occupational health risk.

High levels of air pollution have been linked to cardiovascular problems, dementia and cancer to mention a few. Working in such environments eight hours a day, five days a week can also take a serious toll on mental health.

Poor air quality is forcing 3.9m sick days and year and tragically leads to 36,000 preventable deaths each year.

The trickle-down effect of these health risks is staggering. The more health issues experienced by workers, the more sick days they take, and businesses start to face a productivity crisis. Such is the impact that poor air quality is currently costing the UK economy £900m annually.

The regulatory gap leaving workers unprotected

In recent years, the UK has put in great effort to create public spaces with clean air, the ULEZ zone in London being a prime example. The Government acknowledges that poor air quality is the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK, yet current COSHH workplace air quality regulations are over 30 years’ old and out of line with World Health Organization (WHO) recommended levels. This means that even when employers comply with the UK’s law, there’s still the potential for harm.

Following the pandemic, office workers became aware of the way particulates moved, and steps have been taken to improve the quality of air in office environments. But industrial production workers have not had the same privilege; our research found their air is 34x more polluted than in the office spaces of the same business. It is simply unjust that one group of employees enjoys cleaner air while another is exposed to harmful pollution just because they are not sitting behind a desk.

The levels of exposure are almost off the charts: it’s time UK employers understand the importance of clean air at work and act upon it

The path forward: what employers must do

A large part of the current issue is due to a lack of understanding and awareness. A lot of UK employers may not even be aware of the link between their air quality and high levels of absenteeism or sick leave. Investing in clean air solutions isn’t just an ethical obligation, it’s a strategic business decision that enhances workforce well-being and performance.

The hardest part is that poor air quality is often almost impossible to see until the effects are already being felt. However even before testing, there are a few tell-tale signs that business leaders should be looking out for. If you are noticing a visual haze in the air under bright lights, dust gathering on surfaces, smells that cling to clothes even when workers have left for the day or reports of dirty shower water, then it’s time to take action.

There are several steps businesses can take now to start improving their workplace air quality, but the starting point is to measure current pollution levels. Understanding ventilation, airflow and potential equipment are key points to consider in the first place.

Conclusion: A business and moral imperative

This silent crisis has gone on too long and is endangering the lives of too many workers, and ultimately, our economic health. It’s a wonder we’ve gone on so long without talking about it. If left unchecked, business’ bottom lines will slowly be eroded by a mounting productivity crisis. The first step is to seek expert help to assess the air quality in your building. From there, there are many steps employers can take to improve conditions and benefit from a healthier, happier workforce.

The cost of inaction is too great. It’s time to clean the unseen.

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About the Author

Ben Simons is Head of Zehnder Clean Air Solutions Europe West and is leading the Clean the Unseen campaign, which aims to educate workers and employers about the dangers of unsafe levels of air pollution. Ben’s mission is to champion the benefits of Clean Air to industry.

Powell Warns Tariffs Will Raise Consumer Prices as Fed Hikes Inflation Forecast

March 21, 2025

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell issued a stark warning on Wednesday: tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will drive up consumer prices. His statement comes as the central bank raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 2.8%, up from 2.5%, largely due to the economic impact of trade restrictions.

“A good part of it is coming from tariffs,” Powell said, adding that inflationary pressures could slow progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Since returning to office in January, President Donald Trump has significantly expanded tariffs, affecting over $1 trillion in imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other trade partners. These measures, aimed at protecting U.S. industries, have sparked concerns about rising costs for businesses and consumers. Economists estimate that tariffs could add $1,200 in annual expenses for the average American household.

“Tariffs are simply inflationary, despite what President Trump may tell people,” said Bradley Saunders, an economist at Capital Economics. He explained that businesses facing higher import costs will likely pass those expenses onto consumers.

In addition to consumer goods, tariffs are expected to increase the price of cars and homes. The Anderson Economic Group estimates auto prices could rise by $4,000 to $12,500, while the National Association of Home Builders projects a $9,200 increase in the cost of a typical home.

Despite these concerns, the White House maintains that tariffs will create new jobs and strengthen the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed inflation fears, calling tariffs a “one-time price adjustment” while noting declining oil and mortgage rates.

With economists predicting core inflation could reach 3% in 2025, Powell acknowledged the uncertainty ahead. “It’s really hard to know how this is going to work out,” he said.

Related Readings:

Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Caution as Trump Policies Loom
.

ECB Hikes Rates to Record 4% to Combat Inflation
.

Federal Reserve Stuck in Neutral as Uncertainty Looms Over U.S. Economy

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All United Nations Member States Have an Obligation Under International Law to Arrest President Vladimir Putin Pursuant to the International Criminal Court’s Outstanding Arrest Warrant

March 21, 2025

By Charles H. Camp and Sophia Herbst

On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (“ICC”), which was created by the United Nations pursuant to the Rome Statute,^[1] issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has no head of state immunity from arrest.^[2] The warrant is intended to be more than symbolic and raises critical concerns regarding United Nations member states’ legal duty to arrest Putin. For states that are members of the ICC, their duty to arrest Putin is set forth in the Rome Statute. For states that are not members of the ICC, they have a legal and moral duty to cooperate and protect under the United Nations Charter and international law – the same obligations supporting all states’ Responsibility to Protect.^[3] Should states ignore their international law responsibilities to cooperate, the ICC’s effectiveness as an international court created by the United Nations for the protection of the world will be at stake.

The ICC’s Authority and its Link to the UN

The ICC, established when the Rome Statute entered into force in 2002, has jurisdiction over prosecuting individuals – not states – for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression.

This agreement enables cooperation in areas including peacekeeping, evidence sharing, and witness protection.

Though independent, the ICC maintains a formal relationship with the UN via the Negotiated Relationship Agreement.^[4] This agreement enables cooperation in areas including peacekeeping, evidence sharing, and witness protection.

The UN Security Council (UNSC) can refer cases to the ICC, including involving non-member states, as it did in response to Darfur, Sudan in 2005 and Libya in 2011. However, the ICC faces persistent challenges in enforcing its decisions, especially when involving sitting heads of state.

The ICC’s Power to Issue Arrest Warrants and State Compliance Obligations

Under Article 58 of the Statute, the ICC can issue warrants when reasonable grounds exist to believe that an individual has committed a crime within its jurisdiction. Once a warrant is issued, Articles 59, 86, and 89 obligate member states to arrest and surrender the individual.

The case of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is noteworthy when considering these obligations. In 2009 and 2010, the ICC issued warrants against al-Bashir for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. Despite these warrants, al-Bashir traveled to ICC member states, including South Africa in 2015, without arrest. In its defense, South Africa argued that al-Bashir, as a sitting president, enjoyed immunity under customary international law.

The ICC rejected this defense. In its 2017 decision, the Pre-Trial Chamber II found South Africa non-compliant under Rome Statute Article 87(7), triggered when a state fails to comply with the Court’s request to cooperate and the non-compliance obstructs the Court’s proper function.^[5] While the ICC did not refer South Africa to the Assembly of States Parties or the UNSC, this was based in part on South Africa’s status as first to seek legal clarity from the Court regarding states’ obligations to arrest al-Bashir. As a result, member states who fail to comply with their obligation to enforce after this ruling should not expect the same leniency.

Case in point: the ICC’s October 2024 finding of Mongolia’s non-compliance with the warrant against President Putin and referral to the Assembly of States Parties.^[6] In the case of Putin’s warrant, the ICC has previously clarified that no personal immunity applies to heads of state, including non-members, in relation to ICC warrants.

Putin’s Arrest Warrant: Legal and Political Implications

Russia, not a party to the Rome Statute, has rejected the ICC’s jurisdiction and dismissed the warrant as illegitimate. Nevertheless, ICC member states have a legal obligation to arrest Putin if he enters their territory.

The obligation to arrest and surrender is one of the means to ‘give effect’ to the obligation to cooperate with the Court in the execution of its mandate.

Putin’s travels will place any host states at risk of violating the Rome Statute if they fail to arrest and surrender him. The Court’s finding of non-compliance by Mongolia illustrates the stakes for ICC member states, as they risk legal consequences for non-compliance under Article 87(7) of the Statute. Importantly, the ICC itself made clear in the Mongolia case that^[7], [A]rticle 27 of the Statute has the effect of removing any and all international law immunities of officials, including Heads of State, and binds to that effect States Parties, as well as States that have accepted the Court’s jurisdiction, not to recognise any kind of immunity or apply special procedural rules that they may attach to any persons. Whether these persons are nationals of States Parties or nationals of non-States Parties is irrelevant. The Statute, in any case, does not make any distinction in this regard. States Parties and States that have accepted the Court’s jurisdiction have therefore the obligation to arrest and surrender any person for whom the Court has issued a warrant of arrest, irrespective of their official capacity and nationality. The obligation to arrest and surrender is one of the means to ‘give effect’ to the obligation to cooperate with the Court in the execution of its mandate.

Moreover, the ICC has held that^[8] Article 34 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, providing that the concept that “[a] treaty does not create either obligations or rights for a third State without its consent,”

is irrelevant to the matter at hand, since the Court is not aiming to impose obligations contained in the Statute to non-States Parties, but is rather seeking the cooperation of States Parties in cases against individuals who allegedly committed crimes under article 5 of the Statute on the territory of a State where the Court has jurisdiction.

The US and Other Non-ICC Member States Have an Obligation to Cooperate with the ICC

While non-member states of the ICC, like the United States, are not legally bound by the Rome Statute, they are, as members of the UN, bound by broader obligations under the UN Charter to uphold international peace and security, a concept reinforced through the “responsibility to protect” principle.^[9]

As the UN describes it, the principle creates an affirmative responsibility for states to protect their populations and a “residual responsibility” to act when a state fails to protect its population or commits such crimes itself.^[10] This principle can arguably be extrapolated to imply an obligation on all UN member states to assist in the enforcement of ICC decisions related to findings of “crimes and atrocities”, as such actions are consistent with international law and the UN Charter.^[11]

Ramifications of Non-Compliance with International Obligations

The ICC itself has no enforcement mechanism. It relies entirely on states’ cooperation to enforce its decisions. Non-compliance weakens the Court’s ability to enforce international criminal law and hold accountable individuals charged with crimes serious enough to trigger the ICC’s findings. While Putin’s arrest warrant is not the first issued by the ICC that is yet to be enforced, it represents a crucial test of the international community’s commitment to the enforcement of international criminal law regardless of the official standing of the accused.

Non-compliance weakens the Court’s ability to enforce international criminal law and hold accountable individuals charged with crimes serious enough to trigger the ICC’s findings.

As previously highlighted in the context of the International Court of Justice^[12], judgments by international courts must be enforceable to maintain relevance and provide justice to victims. If ICC arrest warrants are disregarded, especially by ICC member states, the Court risks becoming symbolic, without real-world accountability for its findings. Non-ICC member states, though not obligated through the Rome Statute, have an obligation, consistent with the Responsibility to Protect, to execute the outstanding arrest warrant against Putin.

Conclusion

The ICC depends on states to honor their legal and political obligations. Without state cooperation, including the execution of arrest warrants, the ICC’s ability to deliver justice is severely compromised.

The arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin will remain active unless withdrawn by the ICC itself. Whether it is next year or in the decades to come, the question of enforcing accountability for crimes and atrocities will persist until the day, if ever, Putin is arrested and surrendered to the Court for trial.

Consistent with the UN’s ultimate goals of international peace and cooperation, all UN member states, whether or not they are members of the ICC, have an international obligation to cooperate with the ICC for the benefit of all mankind, consistent with the Responsibility to Protect.

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About the Authors

Charles H. Camp is an international lawyer with over 30 years of experience representing foreign and domestic clients in international litigation, arbitration, negotiation, and international debt recovery. In 2001, Mr. Camp opened the Law Offices of Charles H. Camp, P.C. in Washington, D.C. to focus on effective, personalized representation in complex, international matters. Mr. Camp teaches International Negotiations at the George Washington University Law School.

Sophia Herbst, a former Associate of Mr. Camp’s firm, is an Adjunct Professor at the George Washington University Law School with a focus on international commercial and investor-state arbitration. Ms. Herbst also practices in commercial litigation and alternative dispute resolution.

References

^[1] UN General Assembly, Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (last amended 2010), ISBN No. 92-9227-227-6, UN General Assembly, 17 July 1998, https://www.refworld.org/legal/constinstr/unga/1998/en/64553 [accessed 14 March 2025].

The Rome Statute was adopted on 17 July 1998 by the United Nations Diplomatic Conference of Plenipotentiaries on the Establishment of an International Criminal Court. This version of the Statute incorporates changes made to it by the procés-verbaux of 10 November 1998, 12 July 1999, 30 November 1999, 8 May 2000, 17 January 2001 and 16 January 2002. The statute entered into force on 1 July 2002.

^[2] Rome Statute, Article 27 (“a Head of State or Government, a member of a Government or parliament, an elected representative or a government official shall in no case exempt a person from criminal responsibility under this Statute …”) discussed at length at: https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/0902ebd1809d1971.pdf.

^[3]The Responsibility to Protect is a global political commitment, endorsed by the UN, that states have a responsibility to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity and, if they fail, the international community has a responsibility to act. See also

https://worldfinancialreview.com/nation-states-must-comply-with-their-responsibility-to-protect-ukraine-against-the-russian-federations-ongoing-war-crimes/.

^[4] The International Criminal Court and the United Nations, Negotiated Relationship Agreement between the International Criminal Court and the United Nations, UN Doc. A/58/874, 20 August 2004, https://www.un.org/sites/www.un.org.ola/files/documents/2018/10/un-icc-relationship-agreement.pdf [accessed 14 March 2025].

^[5] The Prosecutor v. Omar Hassan Ahmad Al-Bashir, (Decision) ICC-02/05-01/09 (6 July 2017) https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/CR2017_04402.PDF [accessed 14 March 2025].

^[6] Situation in Ukraine (Decision) ICC-01/22 (24 October 2024) https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/0902ebd1809d1971.pdf [accessed 14 March 2025].

^[7] www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/0902ebd1809d1971.pdf.

^[8] Id.

^[9] United Nations General Assembly, Resolution [A/RES/60/1] 2005 World Summit Outcome (24 October 2005).

^[10] United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect, https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/responsibility-protect/about (accessed 14 March 2025).

^[11] Id.

^[12]https://worldfinancialreview.com/judgments-issued-by-the-international-court-of-justice-against-states-violating-the-genocide-convention-must-be-enforceable-by-states-on-behalf-of-victims-of-genocide-otherwise-what-is-the-relevance/

The Tax Loopholes Wealthy Americans Use—And How You Can, Too

March 21, 2025

Tax season has a way of making everyone feel like they’re playing a game they don’t know the rules to—except for the ultra-wealthy. While most people scramble to figure out deductions and credits, the top earners work with strategies that keep their tax bills surprisingly low. The good news? Some of those same tactics aren’t just for billionaires. Regular people can use them, too. The key is knowing where to look and how to apply them in a way that works for your financial situation.

Rethinking How You Earn Your Money

Not all income is taxed the same way. The IRS treats ordinary wages, like the paycheck from a traditional job, differently than other types of earnings. That’s why the wealthiest Americans don’t rely on salaries alone—they focus on income that’s taxed at a lower rate.

Capital gains, for example, are taxed at a maximum of 20% for most high earners, compared to the top income tax bracket of 37%. This is why wealthier individuals structure their income around investments rather than traditional paychecks. If you’re not in that world yet, it’s still possible to shift some of your earnings into lower-taxed categories. Whether it’s investing in dividend-producing stocks or real estate, moving a portion of your wealth into assets that appreciate over time could lower your tax burden in the long run.

The Power of Retirement Accounts (If You Use Them Right)

Retirement accounts aren’t just about saving for the future—they’re one of the smartest ways to cut your tax bill today. The wealthy don’t just max out their 401(k)s; they take full advantage of tax-deferred and tax-free growth wherever they can.

For many people, Roth IRAs and 401(k)s are an obvious choice, but higher earners often hit contribution limits. That’s where backdoor Roth IRAs and mega-backdoor Roth conversions come into play. These strategies allow money to be moved into tax-free retirement accounts, even for those who technically earn too much to contribute directly.

Another big factor? Managing income levels strategically to avoid being pushed into higher IRMAA brackets for 2025—a key consideration for those on Medicare. IRMAA, or the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, determines how much extra high earners pay for their Medicare premiums. By strategically withdrawing from retirement accounts and managing taxable income, retirees can avoid unnecessary cost hikes and keep more of their money.

How the Wealthy Use Business Structures to Their Advantage

If you’re earning a paycheck as an employee, you’re paying taxes on every dollar upfront. But business owners and independent contractors get to take advantage of deductions that significantly lower their taxable income.

One of the most powerful tools? The S corporation (S corp). Business owners who elect S corp status can split their earnings between a salary and distributions. While salary income is subject to payroll taxes, distributions are not, creating potential savings. That’s why many high earners structure their businesses in a way that legally minimizes how much they owe.

Even if you don’t own a business, it’s worth considering whether side income could be structured in a tax-efficient way. Whether it’s consulting, freelancing, or rental properties, shifting even a portion of income into a business entity could provide financial benefits. And with professional accounting services, you can ensure you’re maximizing every deduction available.

Real Estate: The Wealth-Building Secret

One of the biggest reasons wealthy individuals love real estate? The tax benefits. Not only does real estate appreciate in value over time, but the tax code is written in a way that allows investors to reduce their taxable income significantly.

Depreciation is a major factor here. Even if a property increases in value, the IRS allows owners to deduct depreciation expenses each year, lowering their taxable income. Meanwhile, 1031 exchanges let investors swap one property for another without paying capital gains taxes, allowing them to keep growing their portfolios tax-free.

For those who aren’t real estate moguls (yet), there are still ways to use these advantages. House hacking—renting out part of your primary residence—can allow you to generate tax-advantaged income while building equity. And for those looking to invest more seriously, real estate syndications or REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) offer opportunities to tap into property markets without owning a home outright.

Charitable Giving: How Generosity Saves on Taxes

The wealthy don’t just donate money out of goodwill—many of them structure their giving to maximize tax benefits. Charitable remainder trusts (CRTs) and donor-advised funds (DAFs) allow for significant deductions while keeping assets growing for future giving.

Even for those who aren’t billionaires, strategic charitable giving can lower tax burdens. Instead of donating cash, consider gifting appreciated stocks or assets. This move lets you avoid capital gains taxes while still getting a full deduction on the donation’s market value.

Another approach? Bunching donations into specific years. Instead of spreading out contributions annually, consolidating donations into a single tax year can push deductions above the standard threshold, leading to bigger tax savings.

Why Tax Planning Isn’t Just for the Wealthy

The biggest mistake most people make? Thinking tax planning is only for the ultra-rich. In reality, the tax code is filled with incentives and strategies designed to help everyone—not just billionaires—keep more of what they earn.

From optimizing retirement accounts to leveraging business structures and real estate, there are plenty of ways to reduce tax liabilities legally. It’s all about knowing what’s available and making smart, forward-thinking moves. Because when it comes to taxes, the best way to win isn’t by working harder—it’s by planning smarter.

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