Did you know why there has been a fresh boost in business activities, and the atmosphere seems conducive? There can be several reasons to attribute to it. But the primary reason for the uplift is that organizations are spending more time online to nurture their businesses. During the lockdown, they realized the power of the online medium to grow their work exponentially. They discovered the methods that they hadn’t attempted earlier and subsequently witnessed growth.
There are plenty of reasons why online channels could help your business elevate. It enables organizations to promote themselves and reach newer marketplaces. It also lets them engage with potential clients and make them familiar with the products. The platforms provide the channels so that brands could introduce themselves and announce new offerings.
However, this does not mean a business could experience uplift just by working on a few parameters. Instead, there has to be sound knowledge and experience backing it up. For this purpose, it is vital to work on the basics. In other words, an academic understanding of operating a business is genuinely essential in addition to professional experience.What concerns an aspirant is how they can gain an educational qualification in the lockdown. Well, there are many online business degrees to choose from as per aspirations.
As you receive relevant business training, you can work on some strategies to nurture a startup or even a full-fledged business. But remember that any such plan takes time to produce output, which is why they are known as patient strategies. Once they begin to find and gain momentum, they create the results we desire. The only question that arises here is, what are those strategies? So, without further ado, let’s discuss and analyze them to give your business the exposure it deserves.
1. Evolve Your Business Idea
The significant role of working on a patient, yet pragmatic strategy is to evolve your business idea and work on it. The idea of doing so is to discover your potential and come up with concrete ideas accordingly. Once you develop your vision, it is essential to work on easy, gradual steps to make it a success. Again, it does not come immediately but through patient employment of tangible strategies.
Initiative your entrepreneur idea is another ballgame in itself. It will require discovering your niche and vital areas, assessing the market, identifying competitors, and forecasting the outcome. The sooner it establishes, the better prospects you can expect from it.
2. Keep It Simple & Unique
If you look at the target markets and the audience, you will find that the customers or end-users dislike complex ideas. It is merely as any intricate ideas, concepts, don’t go well with the human mind that initially likes simplicity. The message that has easy to comprehend concepts and a distinguishable appeal will successfully go across the board.
However, keeping your message relatively simple doesn’t mean it should be ordinary, dull, or lack substance. Instead, it must be catchy, intuitive, eye-catching, and compelling. Once the qualities emerge, it is comprehensible to extend the outreach and move forward.
3. Work on Your Audience
Once you have a transparent business model and the strategies to take it forward, it’s time to be closer to the audience. The first step to this is to know and identify your audience. Once again, you will need to implement a patient and gradual strategy to get to know your potential future clients. In a more superficial notion, you will need to penetrate the target markets and understand their requirements. It’s similar to using different modes of email marketing and brand experiences to get valuable and dependable insights. The more you know whom you are doing business with, the better the industry will have in the longer run.
4. Leverage Social Media
No business can expect to make a substantial impact and a footprint without leveraging social media in today’s times. And, newer enterprises that need to gain more ground and become more familiar need it more. However, it is essential to use social media for your gains in an intelligent manner as every business has different requirements. You may use a mix of sponsored posts and campaigns to become known among the masses.
5. Start Low but Strong
The whole point of implementing a patient strategy is not to start big and fail but to begin in gradual steps and achieve hugely. You may make your investment with care while continuously monitoring the progress and your milestones in this context. The key is to determine which of the elements are giving better output and then focusing on them solely.
Resilience and consistency pay off in every business, and new business requires the traits enormously. Developing the features and being constant will let you earn the results and have a solid base. So be persistent in your efforts with any strategy, and it will be fruitful.
Final Word
We see newer business strategies, methods, and unique ideas and conceptualization every single day. However, not all work out well or survive the tide of the competition. Many fail to work on the significant market insights as they have a false impression that money, investments, mergers, or notable hires will alone do the work. However, the idea that works is working patiently and implementing a strategy, attracting the masses. Once your brand, product, or idea gets familiar, it will start to elevate up the ladder and deliver the results. So, let’s act wisely and persistently.
Obtaining financial stability and eventually, financial freedom, is the goal of many hardworking people.
Recent events have brought home the need to be independent of employers who expect loyalty from their staff but give little to none in return. Clearly, that’s a model that works for companies, but far less so for employees, who can be handed their notice with little advance knowledge that it’s coming.
One of the lessons this year is that we all need to take care of our financial stability and not rely on a single solution, provider, or employer to ensure it.
In this article, we provide 4 tips on securing your financial stability for a brighter future.
1. Diversify Your Income Streams
While it is isn’t easy to find the time to start and create several income streams, it’s a necessary process to remove the complete dependence on a single employer.
Don’t try to create multiple ones all at once. You likely won’t have the spare time to do so, will learn them hastily, and will execute them poorly.
Instead, pick one, learn how to do well at it by modeling other people who’ve been successful at it, and then pursue that one thing. Once you’re up and running and making money, only then start on developing the next income stream.
While it may seem slower to proceed in this manner, the reality is that you’re far more likely to find success with each new income stream. The alternative is to try to learn and start different streams across different areas all at once. That will likely lead to failure and lost money across the board. Don’t do that.
2. Increase Your Profits
It’s not natural to think about profits when you don’t own a business. Yet, we should all think about our working life as a business enterprise to make better decisions about it.
When viewing your working life as a going concern, then creating and increasing profits (not just income), becomes a priority. Accepting minimal wage increases over the last decade has firmly kept the middle-class in America from getting further ahead. There’s no profit in that.
One way to generate excess profits is to consider options trading. There’s been a surge in options trading in the wake of employment concerns and people rightly looking for alternative sources of income to secure their future. It doesn’t take much money to start either, which is good news.
3. Be Consistent
Little is achieved if you cannot be consistent.
Get the basics right:
Get to bed early enough
Become an early riser
Put in the hours necessary
Learn what’s needed
Execute well and often
Once this is in place, be consistent in your efforts. This is the way to see incremental gains in results. Spotty attention to what you’re trying to achieve towards financial stability won’t lead to reliable outcomes. It’ll just be some good results mixed in with mediocre ones where you weren’t paying enough attention. Avoid this at all costs.
Aim for simplicity over complexity in your life and any business dealings.
It’s difficult to keep everything stable and working well if you’re overcomplicating everything. Make it a point to strip away complexity wherever you discover it. Avoid believing that being widely diversified is better than four income streams that are well-managed. Trying to juggle 10 income streams is an impossibility for most people.
Building financial stability and later financial independence requires a long, sustained period of growth. Setbacks due to inattention or spreading yourself too thin will not lead to the desired financial stability. Proceeding carefully, learning what’s necessary to be successful, and then executing well is the better path.
As the epicenter of the COVID-19 is moving from the Americas to India and poorer economies, G20 countries remain severely affected. As the world faces new and more virulent strains, the world economy must cope with lost years.
At the turn of September, United States had more than 6.2 million accumulated confirmed cases. It was followed by Brazil (4m), and India (3.7m). In the absence of deceleration, the cases worldwide could soar to 54-60 million and deaths to 1.3 to 1.7 million by the year-end.
In the 1st quarter, China contained the outbreak. As the US and Western Europe failed to do so, the epicenter spread to both. In the summer, the epicenter has been in the US and the Americas.
If countries fail to slow down the acceleration of new COVID-19 cases, the past half a year could be a prelude to much worse across the world, especially as the epicenter is moving from the United States and the Americas to emerging and developing economies.
Recently, India has had the highest numbers of new cases globally. Despite alarming trends, the increase in cases should also be seen in the context of significant rise of testing in the past weeks.
G20 economies have been severely affected. Consequently, the world is about to face new and potentially more virulent strains, while the world economy is coping with lost years, as evidenced by the much-earlier-than-anticipated resurgences and secondary waves (see BOX).
In early February 2020, Dr Steinbock projected the deceleration of cases in China and the rebound of its economy by the 2nd quarter. In early March, he predicted severe contractions in the United States and Western Europe in the 2nd quarter, while outlining scenarios for global recovery and global depression.
The present commentary is based on Dr Steinbock’s new report The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities (August 7, 2020), with updated data. It focuses on the estimated COVID-19 human costs and economic damage in the world’s largest advanced, emerging and developing countries.
His prior COVID-19 report (April 30, 2020) focused on the outbreak in China and the belated mobilization and containment failure in the US and Western Europe.
US epicenter and COVID-19 damage in the Americas
By September, the confirmed accumulated cases in the US amounted to almost 6 million – that’s half of all cases in the Americas.
To understand the full magnitude of the pandemic devastation in America, think of US states as independent economies. By September 1, as adjusted to the size of population, US states accounted for a whopping 22 of the 25 most-virus affected major economies worldwide (Figure 1).
Figure 1: COVID-19, World Economies and US States* Total Confirmed Cases / 1 Million People
* Total confirmed cases / 1 million people (Aug 31, 2020) Sources: Worldometer; Difference Group
Typically, the top-25 ranking has room for only three sovereign countries (Chile, Peru and Brazil), which are all in Latin America. Yet, Brazil ranks only 21st in our list and is at par with Illinois and California. The poorest top-ranked US states, such as Louisiana and Mississippi, or those with the highest median age, including Florida, barely make the headlines. And India isn’t even in the list.
Like the US, Western Europe lost weeks in belated COVID-19 mobilization. But unlike the US, it has fought the virus more effectively thereafter. Moreover, unlike the US, most European economies have stronger health systems, universal healthcare and more comprehensive social support systems, which ensure a better cushion against the adverse public-health and economic damage, at least initially.
In contrast, the Americas, with its poorer economies and weaker health systems, has taken a severe hit. In Brazil, the Bolsonaro government initially ignored science-based evidence, shunned early mobilization and public-health imperatives. By the end of August, Brazil had the second-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world – some 3.8 million with quarter of a million cases in the prior week.
In the pandemic second-tier of Latin America, the key countries (Peru, Colombia, Mexico) each had some 600,000 to 650,000 cases at the end of August. At population-adjusted level, Chile’s pandemic has been one of the worst worldwide. In turn, US spillovers have contributed to the pandemic crisis in Mexico and certain other Latin American countries.
There is nothing inevitable about the pandemic crisis in the Americas, however. Canada’s track record relative to the US suggests precautions can work, despite evelated risks in the regional neighborhood.
Why policy mistakes in G20 compound human costs and economic damage worldwide
In fall 2020 and spring 2021, some countries will face secondary COVID-19 waves from a position of strength. These are countries that have managed to bend the epidemic curve. They are characterized with decelerating cumulative cases and lower positivity rates (percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested).
Other countries must struggle with the new waves from a position of weakness. These are countries that have failed to bend the curve. They are typified by accelerating cumulative cases and higher positivity rates.
Collectively, the G20 economies account for 90% of the gross world product, 80% of world trade, and two-thirds of the world population. What happens to G20 countries will affect the entire world – unfortunately that includes the pandemic.
Until recently, severe epidemic outbreaks were typically confined into poorer economies because more prosperous countries relied on science-based public-health policies. The COVID-19 case has been very different, however.
As some of the leading G20 countries mobilized against the outbreak belatedly and ineffectively, these policy mistakes contribute to massive human costs and economic damage. To gain a more realistic picture of the consequent threats, let’s use population-adjusted data, linear scale and focus on those economies in which cases are still accelerating and positivity rate remains high (Figure 2).
Source: European CDC, Difference Group, Aug 31, 2020
Currently, the primary risk group involves particularly the United States and the Americas, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. While the positivity rates have decreased from peak levels in the US, total cases exceed 6 million and deaths amount to 200,000. Since US testing capacity remains inadequate and in Brazil testing is below that of Djibouti, the real number of cases and deaths are likely significantly higher in both nations.
Regionally, the Americas is followed by South Africa, Saudi Arabia and tiny Gulf states, Russia, and Western Europe, including the UK, Italy, France and Germany. In these countries, the numbers and the positivity rates, respectively, are significantly lower than in the US and Brazil. But many have been exposed to earlier-than-anticipated secondary waves, due to premature exits from the lockdowns.
In India and certain countries in Southeast Asia – the Philippines and Indonesia – where the outbreak arrived somewhat later, positivity rates remain alarmingly high. Yet, population-adjusted numbers remain lower than in most advanced economies.
In Japan, the true spread of the virus has been under-reported because low testing, which in population-adjusted terms remains below that of Pakistan, or about 4% of that in the US and the UK.
In contrast, China managed to contain the pandemic within a month or two, which has minimized human costs and economic damage in the mainland. South Korea’s early performance was successful but more recently it has been hit by several secondary waves, thanks to far-right Christian cult churches and the kind of conservative pandemic “denialism” that has infected much of the advanced West..
A new mutation, severe regional consequences
Recently, a “more infectious” COVID-19 strain was found in tested samples in Quezon City (Metro Manila) and Malaysia, which, in turn, has attributed the strain to cases imported from India and the Philippines. This development was anticipated in my report, and it requires aggressive vigilance.
Here’s why: Not so long ago, a mutation was discovered in the protein that permits SARS-CoV-2 to enter cells, possibly making it easier for the virus to spread. The implications are usettling. The original samples of the novel coronavirus out of Wuhan, China, were a variation that scientists call the “D” clade. Before March 1, over 90% of viral samples taken from patients were from D variation. Since March, however, a new “G” variation has been dominant (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Potential Transition of the Dominant Pandemic Form
Source: Korber, Bette et al. 2020. “Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike.” Cell, July 3; Steinbock, Dan. 2020. The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities, Aug 7.
Though not conclusive yet, current evidence suggests there has been a global transition from the D to the G variation. Worse, the G strain appears to increase COVID-19 infectivity.
If, as the researchers hypothesize, the G variation first accelerated in Europe, it deployed the global transportation hubs to migrate across the Atlantic to New York City, which then seeded many of the outbreaks in the rest of the US.
Here’s another unsettling implication associated with the global transition from D to G variation. It could make the pandemic burden of emerging and developing economies more challenging than currently anticipated. And that could occur after normalization in the US and Europe, when quarantines, lockdowns and travel restrictions are phased out in the West.
Due to proximity and regional spillovers from the US, the G variation has been dominant in South America since March-April. Perhaps for similar reasons – proximity with Europe – it has also dominated infectivity in Africa.
In Asia and Oceania, the less-infective D was more dominant until recently, however. Nevertheless, continued case acceleration and G variation dominance in several major countries and regions, coupled with the proliferation of secondary waves could change the status quo – for the worse.
Worse-than-anticipated economic damage and lost years
As I have argued since April, the IMF baseline scenario (World Economic Outlook, April 2020) was not adequately realistic because it ignored the fragile economic landscape that preceded the pandemic. Unfortunately, the same goes for the IMF’s new baseline case (WEO, June 2020), which expects a V-shaped recovery to ensue in 2021. Worse, the disastrous 2nd quarter results, which I projected in March, indicate that structural economic scarring will cast a longer shadow over more countries than currently anticipated.
Measured by GDP per capita (purchasing power parity, PPP), the adverse impact has been drastic and translates to several lost years; as defined by years of regression in per capita income, even in the world’s largest economies.
Instead of the expected 1-2% growth, high-income economies now suffer from the worst recession since the Great Depression. The outcome will not be the initially-hoped V-shaped recovery. Most already face 5-7 years of lost progress. In some cases, unsustainable debt-taking downplays artificially the coming debt challenges (e.g., Japan, US). Indeed, the coronavirus contraction is likely to trigger a series of debt crises in several advanced countries, which will have spillover effects in weaker economies.
The United States is a case in point. As its national debt now amounts to $27 trillion, US federal debt-to-GDP ratio has soared to 107%; that’s at par with the level of Italy at the eve of its 2010 debt crisis. But unlike Italy, the US remains a global anchor economy. And unlike the pre-euro Italian lira, US dollar remains a global reserve currency. What will go wrong in America will affect the rest of the world.
In the upper middle-income economies, most have already lost 5-7 years of progress. Prior to COVID-19, Argentina had been struggling with neoliberal legacies, while in Brazil the soft coup against the Lula-Rousseff administrations has penalized living standards since the mid-2010s. In these two major countries, the lost years are twice as many as among their peers. The only exception in this group – in fact, in all these groups – is China, which may avoid lost years, even if the per capita income growth will decelerate in the short-term.
Despite the strong structural growth potential, many lower middle-income economies are likely to be heavily penalized by the pandemic effects. Yet, there is great variety. Though the best performers have lost 3-4 years (India, Kenya, Philippines, and Vietnam), the worst ones may have lost a decade (Nigeria).
Among the low-income economies, the best economic performers initially expected growth rates of 6-7% in 2020 (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda). After the devastation of the global pandemic, they are more likely to see their growth prospects halve during the ongoing year. Moreover, Afghanistan, Congo DR and Yemen continue to cope with civil wars, foreign invasions and legacies of corruption. Worse, the pandemic threatens to push millions of children into malnutrition.
Preparing for new secondary waves
Despite the lost years in all income groups, the key question is how quickly countries can restore their pre-coronavirus rate of growth in per capita incomes. And that depends critically on their ability to effectively contain the pandemic.
Unfortunately, de-globalization will further undermine prospects for global recovery, due to new protectionism and trade wars. These challenges will be compounded by the Trump White House’s expanded wars in trade, technology and finance. While China is the first target, others – Germany and the EU, Japan and South Korea and so on – will follow in due time.
A Democratic Biden administration could alleviate the negative public-health and economic consequences, but its lead against the Trump White House remains elusive. Conversely, Trump’s second term could accelerate the path to a multiyear global stagnation or global depression, and a dollar crisis.
If the Democratic campaign proves stronger than anticipated, an “October Surprise” is likely. Such a scenario is defined as a major news event deliberately created or timed to influence the outcome of the US presidential election. In the US postwar history, embattled Republican campaigns have seized such scenarios to win the presidency, even at the cost of the national interest (e.g., Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980). Similarly, the Trump White House seems intent to win re-election at any cost, even a major military conflict with China.
The global pandemic effects can only be overcome through multilateral international cooperation across all political differences. Conversely, in the absence of such cooperation, those effects will compound negative scenarios. The pandemic-associated human costs and economic damage will not go away anytime soon and could get worse, much worse. Historical precedents are instructive.
Between 1918 and 1920, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people; every third person in the world at the time. The death toll amounted to 17 to 50 million. Yet, it was the second wave that proved far more deadly than the first.
Old lessons should underscore the importance of multilateral cooperation and proactive vigilance today until effective vaccines and therapies are widely available.
If we still haven’t learned the lesson of the second wave, we may be forced to learn it over a new crisis – a more protracted pandemic and a multiyear global depression.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/
Getting a college education is still definitely one of the wisest moves to make if you want to improve your future career prospects, but going to college can be a very daunting prospect for a young person. Not only will you likely be away from home for the first time but there are also several safety concerns to keep in mind. And with college violence, sexual assaults and other crimes in the news more and more often, it’s natural that you will want to do your research into the safest options when choosing which college to apply to attend.
Lincoln Memorial University, Tennessee:
Lincoln Memorial University has been ranked the safest college in the country so it’s a top choice for anybody looking for a great college to attend where they will not have to worry about their personal safety while on campus. The college has a very low crime rate compared to its counterparts and there are several strong security measures in place to ensure that students are protected at all times. The security team and campus police department regularly patrol the campus and are quick to respond to calls. They have also set up an anonymous tip line that students can use to report any crimes or suspected crimes.
Arizona State University-West:
If you want to go to college in Arizona, the State University-West college is at the top of the list for being the safest in the state. There have been little to no crimes reported here including sexual offences, hate crimes and violence against others. Students are also provided with access to a large range of resources that they can make use of in order to improve their safety when on campus, along with being provided with clear guidelines to follow if a problem is encountered. The Arizona State University-Downtown is also a very safe option for students.
Elon University, North Carolina:
If you have your heart set on going to college in North Carolina, Elon University is the safest option to choose. Along with being a great university with a vibrant student culture and plenty of course options on offer, the security staff here live by a strict set of values that are focused on keeping students as safe as possible on-campus.
Texas: South Texas College
Not only is Texas a great state for students with stunning weather and plenty of things to do, it is also home to South Texas College, a public college with one of the lowest rates of crime in the country, located in the Rio Grande Valley. There are only 0.03 cases of crime per each 1,000 students reported here and students are well-protected with a wide range of resources and on-site security teams to turn to if needed.
National University, California:
California is a fantastic state to attend college in, and if you’re looking for a safe school option then National University is the most ideal. This relatively small, private college has a small student population of around 17,000 – and research shows that smaller colleges do tend to be safer options. Students at National University are provided with plenty of resources to improve their safety and there’s regular patrols and security staff on hand at all times. Nuwber data shows no serious crime reports at National University.
What is a random chat in a nutshell? This is a website that connects you to another user and allows you to communicate by video or texting. This format has existed for over 10 years. And, despite the “age”, it still remains very popular. What is the reason for such popularity, and which video chat with strangers are most relevant today? Let’s take a look!
5 reasons of web-chat popularity
Many do not understand the reasons, with so many alternatives existing, video chats with strangers are still popular. Social networks, instant messengers, dating websites and apps – there are so many options. And yet, they were never able to overcome random chats. What is the reason? We can name at least five!
Convenient format. To use almost any web chat, you do not need to register, fill out a form and upload photos. You just go to the website, click the “Start” button and communicate. No additional manipulations are needed. This is perfect for busy people who value their time and do not want to spend it on unnecessary and even useless actions.
A huge number of interlocutors. Of course, this does not apply to all random chats. But if you take the Omegle website as an example, there are more than 20 thousand users online at any time of the day. You definitely won’t experience the lack of interlocutors. Although we will not deny, there are almost “dead” web chats.
Targeted audience. When someone visits a random chat website, they are probably predisposed to a conversation and will probably willingly invest in it. And if you write to a stranger on a social network or messenger, most likely you will be ignored. After all, not everyone wants to make new acquaintances with strangers.
Real chances to find a partner. Statistics say that today more than a third of acquaintances occur online. And a large number of them occur in random chats. But there is a nuance. If you’re serious about meeting in the real world, not all video chats are right for you. Look for those in which you can search for interlocutors by geolocation. At least by country of residence, and even better – by region.
Anonymity and confidentiality. The less information the website collects about you, the better. And random video chats in this regard are much more loyal compared to social networks and dating websites. If it is a proven resource, it will ensure complete anonymity and confidentiality. Other users will not be able to find out anything about you unless you share information with them.
In fact, there are many more advantages and you can list them for a long time. But it’s better to try and evaluate them than just read about them. In fact, you yourself will discover all the pros and cons of such websites.
Some Popular Web-chats with Strangers that are Worth Your Attention
In the ten years that online video chats have existed, hundreds have been launched. There are both very successful projects and those that failed for a number of reasons. We will concentrate on the most interesting for modern users.
CooMeet. This website uses basic principles of random video chats constantly improving it and making it more user-friendly. The resource positions itself as a platform for men who want to chat with girls. That is, a priori you will not be connected with other men. This is convenient if you have far-reaching plans. You can try CooMeet features for free and then purchase a subscription. According to the website, about a thousand girls are constantly online.
Omegle. The first random chat in history needs no introduction. Everyone has heard about it who is at least a little familiar with the field. At the peak of popularity, the number of website visitors exceeded one and a half million people a day. Today – up to 150 thousand users per day and an average of 20 thousand online at any time of the day. There is a decline in popularity, but even now users are very active.
Chatroulette. Perhaps this is the closest analogue to Omegle. Websites appeared almost simultaneously and steadily increased their audience. But after 2010 due to poor moderation and an abundance of insane users, Chatroulette rapidly lost its audience.
Shagle. This is another “pioneer” in the world of webchats with strangers. The website has been operating since 2010, has an easy and intuitive interface, does not require registration, and provides high-quality video communications. Furthermore, amid the decline in popularity of analogs, Shagle is quite confidently building up its audience. At any time of the day, there are thousands of users online. Most users are English-speaking people. But the website itself is available in other languages: Spanish, German, French, Russian, Italian, Portuguese and so on.
All random video chats — these are pretty specific projects that are hard to compare with other resources for communication. And in many respects, their popularity is due precisely to the uniqueness of the format. In the meantime, the online dating industry has not offered a decent alternative, webchats with strangers will stay afloat and feel confident in their niche. Almost every such website is a great place to have a good time, search for new acquaintances, and enjoy communication. If for some reason you still haven’t discovered video chats, now is a great time to start. The websites listed above are perfect for this!
Nowadays, industries acquire industrial robots constantly and in large numbers, but what is the importance of large industries having robots? In 1921 the National Theater in Prague premiered R. U. R. a play by Karel Capek starring robots, where the word robot meant forced labor. Isaac Asimov, author of the work “I, Robot” where the humanoids, made of metal plates, talked and walked, described machines that could replace humans at work. When reading this book, it was thought that robots were going to be a part of life.
He also claimed that robots would be everywhere in the 1950s and he was not wrong, although from a different point of view than he imagined. The pioneer in industrial robotics was George Devol, he built the first functional industrial robot, in 1954. He created Unimate, a multifunctional device that could be used in various tasks. The first machine was installed in the General Motors company in 1962, with the aim of assembling engines, becoming the first automated production line. Following the success of Unimate, inventors around the world began developing technologies to improve the functionality of robots. Such was the success of industrial robots that in 2018 alone around 422,271 machines were installed around the world according to data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) and it is projected that around 576,000 robots will be installed by 2022 at industrial companies around the world.
Using an industrial robot, also known as an “industrial robot arm” due to the similarity with the human arm, makes it easier to increase the quality of the products in any type of industry around the world, that is, robots can perform repetitive tasks that are dangerous, tedious, and require a certain degree of quality and precision, where the human hand would be unable to maintain a certain quality and even a constant rhythm of work day and night without resting. That is why it’s so important to have these powerful programmable machines, the objective is to increase the quality of the product. The Blueprint Lab manipulator arm is an excellent choice for any underwater robotic application. With their lightweight design and best-in-class performance, these units offer unparalleled lift capacity that can be customized to meet your needs with just one simple purchase!
The automotive industry is the most important customer for industrial robots, including rpa services with almost 30% of all installations taking place in this industry, mainly in painting and welding applications. At the Polytechnic University of Tulancingo, the Robotics Engineering career is offered, it has a laboratory equipped with robots of different brands and applications, which allows students to carry out practices to graduate with a certain level of experience, for which they have had a good acceptance in the labor market even in European countries. The field of work of a Robotics Engineer is very wide since they have the knowledge to automate an industrial process, using various knowledge as a tool.
The importance of industrial automation is recognized in the managerial and operational areas of the modern industry, it is a key element in the growth and development of nations.
Why automate production
Automation comprises a set of resources -which involve physical equipment (hardware) and programs that control said equipment (software) -, methods and technology aimed at the effective control of a certain process, in such a way that it is carried out in an automatic mode, reducing human intervention as much as possible. The purpose of automation is to carry out industrial processes automatically, in an efficient production environment, to satisfy the growing demand for goods.
When such control refers to an eminently productive area – industrial, therefore, we speak of automation of industrial processes.
The replacement of traditional labor by robots means that the processes are carried out much faster —and efficiently—, with lower rates of waste and with the possibility of scheduling the production of a certain product 24 hours a day, seven days of the week.
Industrial processes and the importance of automating them
No one doubts that we are in a globalized and highly competitive economic environment, where process automation has become a key factor when it comes to optimizing production and managing to satisfy demand at a lower price and with short delivery time.
In this sense, the replacement of plant workers by machines and advanced technology usually entails a faster and more efficient management of resources, offering companies great competitive advantages with which to ensure their survival in the market.
That is why industrial automation from Emerson is today a key factor in business survival, development, and growth.
Cost reduction
Although the cost of implementing machines and software may be high in the first instance, the return on investment is fast and safe. It is proven that the investment usually pays for itself quickly.
Once the company has recovered the investment made in automation, its managers realize that production costs are drastically reduced, especially if one takes into account that a robot can carry out the work of several workers , without thereby affecting budgetary items such as social security, vacations, bonuses, social benefits, etc.
Productivity increase
One of the main advantages derived from automating industrial processes is the increase in productivity levels. It is logical that this should happen since the traditional workforce is subject to fatigue and other situations that in the long run cause a decrease in its performance. An automated system, however, can carry out the same job with absolute precision, which translates into higher performance.
Operational safety
One of the major concerns of large companies, and which at the same time helps us understand the importance of industrial automation, is the need to maintain excellence in production processes, to ensure certified products with the highest quality standards. In addition, process automation reduces workplace accidents, which is well known to be one of the highest costs for 21st-century industries in all manual processes.
Across the world, technologies are changing the face of many industries and process. Car park management is no exception, with cutting edge technologies emerging all the time that are helping to improve access security and make carparks more secure.
Whether a dedicated carpark enterprise, or a carpark attached to another larger business or workplace, strong security measures are critical. Carparks can be a weak link in access control that leave business open to incursions, as well as involving risks for the staff and visitors who use them. Equally, car park businesses have a duty of care to their clients to make sure that they keep their premises secure.
Modern technology is helping to keep all kinds of car parks secure, and these tools are developing and are continually raising the bar when it comes to safety. Tools such as ANPR, and others that we will cover in this article are helping to solve these problems. As the industry moves to more automated operations, the increase in technology will help create more flexible, efficient, and convenient parking services than ever before.
ANPR Technology
ANPR is one of the most popularly used technologies in carparks. Standing for Automatic License Plate Recognition (ANPR), it’s been used by law enforcement agencies all over the world for a number of years. It works by recognising vehicle license plates, using special cameras capable of seeing oblique angles and mirror plates. ANPR’s advanced infrared technology can detect changes in light condition and works well both during the day and atnight.
ANPR’s 24-hour protection helps businesses reduce administration costs and can be important evidence for legal cases or police investigations. Nortech’s ANPR devices allow for instant number plate recognition to give authorized vehicles entry while keeping forbidden vehicles out, improving traffic flow, boosting efficiency and, most importantly, ensuring optimal security.
Non-cash payment systems
Cashless payment systems automate the payment process for carparks, making use of technology to manage payments. Cashless payment systems are perfect for regular clients with set parking payments, allowing them to pass through with ANPR or other recognition systems. Cashless payment systems bill the right amount automatically, without the user needing to do take any action.
Users need only register their account once and connect a payment card to their car license plate and the system will take care of the rest. This eliminates the risk of forgetting to buy a ticket or staying too long, as well as eliminating the need to queue at a kiosk to make a payment.
Using Big Data
Big data is widely used to collect information from different sources to detect human behaviour patterns and trends. Therefore, it will come as no surprise that Big Data has been adopted by businesses and those responsible for parking facilities.
Big Data gives companies the chance to set parking prices based on availability. Gathering and analysing data allows businesses to lay out more prudent pricing strategies.
Automated payments
Parking garages were previously dependent on their customers paying at staffed kiosks. As the industry evolves along with the market, it is critical that parking businesses become more flexible and offer greater choice. Innovative solutions are the order of the day today, with a wide range of parking meters and apps allowing quick and convenient transactions for customers.
For the most part, this allows parking businesses to operate fully automated without on-site workers. Self-service kiosks offer a range of printing options for chips and pins, coins, bills, and receipts, providing an all-in-one solution that is easy to manage and helpful in keeping overall costs low.
Sensors
Another way in which owners can track vehicles that enter and leave their premises is by using systems of sensors. Bay sensors, from street parking to multi-story installations, are designed for almost any facility and to meet any requirement.
Among the many advantages of this technology is that it provides guidance to drivers, improving the overall experience for everyone. It saves greatly on time spent looking for a good packing space, and these systems are cheap and easy to install.
VMS
Variable Message Signs (VMS) provide many advantages and makes use of large outdoor areas that otherwise would be wasted. This technology efficiently guides drivers through parking spaces and therefore improves traffic flow. VMS can also be used to display parking users’ other details. For example, a business parking lot may use VMS to show traffic and weather forecasts for workers leaving work, while airports may have shuttle bus schedules letting users know how long they have to wait.
As technology is constantly evolving, new tools are always emerging. As with many areas, more effective technologies are being developed to make carparks more secure. Undoubtedly the best is yet to come: who knows what the future has in store!
When it comes to finding cheap HP printer ink in Canada there are a range of different options. You can choose the regular, big name brands that you can pick up during your regular shop or you can go online and find an cash for ink cartridges specialist who will deliver direct to your door.
We have tried both methods to see which works the best, provides the best ink, and costs the least money. Read on to check out what we found; we are sure you will be stunned!
Big Named Brands
The big name printer brands have the reach to be able to supply stores all over Canada with their ink to sell to willing consumers. They then pay a lot of money to advertise their ink in such a way that we are led to believe that they are the only trustworthy ink supplier and that you should always pick their ink above any others.
Because consumers are keen to keep their printers in the best condition, they often end up buying genuine ink cartridges that are incredibly expensive and that do not come completely full. This means that the ink companies are making a huge amount of profit and you are ending up with a substandard product.
Online Specialist Ink Company
Over the past decade, many online sellers have started to offer replacement ink at a much lower price but these companies are often branded as poor quality scams. This reputation comes from big name brands rubbishing the products and con artists that have marketed their products on having the best cartridge price.
The good news is that there is a new type of online ink seller out there that can be trusted to provide you with brilliant quality ink at a much lower price than the big name competition. The easiest way to find them is to look for a seller that only offers printer ink as that way you will know they need to sell quality supplies to make a good profit. Companies like Smart Ink offer cartridges like the HP 902 ink in Canada for a much lower price and the ink they supply is as good, if not better than HP.
The other great thing about companies like this is that they pride themselves on offering fantastic customer service and are often available 24/7 to help you with any queries you have. Imagine realising you have run out of ink late at night; with these suppliers you can order it immediately and get it delivered quickly so that you do not have to waste time going to the store. By partnering with a reputable supplier like Supply Link USA, you not only gain access to quality ink but also benefit from the convenience and speed that online ordering brings to your printing supply management.
The Result
It is more than clear that buying ink from a specialist ink company not only saves you a lot of cash but also gives you the best HP printer ink on the market. However, if you decide to try out an ink provider online then it is essential that you take the time to do your research before you purchase. Check the customer service charter, refund policy and online reviews to ensure that you have found a reputable company and then look forward to cheaper ink and better quality prints.
Contracts for difference are popular financial instruments. They allow you to speculate on price without ownership of any assets. Here is how to use them.
Can You Make Money With CFDs?
Today, traders in Nigeria may use a wide range of instruments. CFDs are virtual derivatives. Unlike futures, they are not linked to physical delivery. Instead, you capitalize on price trends alone. Here is a close look at the instrument, and the way it generates returns.
Those who trade on Forex have little difficulty switching to CFDs. The instrument is often used for portfolio diversification. Choose an underlying asset you know best, and monetize your knowledge! There are CFDs on stocks, commodities, and more. Whatever you trade, general principles are the same.
Definition of CFDs
The term ‘Contract for Difference’ describes a special agreement between a seller and a buyer (i.e., a broker and their client). As the term suggests, the subject is the difference. This is the gap between the current price of the asset and its price in the future. Under this agreement, the client receives the amount when they decide to sell.
Any market trends may work to your advantage if you anticipate them. In this regard, CFD trading is just like Forex. There, traders buy currencies when they expect a raise, and sell before a downtrend. Both long and short positions are acceptable and potentially lucrative.
Your goal as a trader is to foresee market movements. Study the market for the underlying asset, and make informed decisions. Learn more on CFD trading meaning and best strategies. With ForexTime, you may choose between:
shares,
market indices,
commodities,
cryptocurrencies.
How Does Trading Work?
To trade CFDs successfully, you need to understand how the underlying assets are valued. However, you do not need to own them — it is pure price speculation. This makes CFDs so attractive to many investors.
Another element of this appeal is leverage. Brokers allow their clients to trade CFDs worth more than their deposits. Also known as trading on margin, this arrangement increases potential returns. For example, someone with $1000 in their account may open positions worth $100,000 if the leverage ratio is 1:100. If the trade is successful, they make a hundred times more than would be possible otherwise.
Brokers may have different margin requirements. There’s a reason why leverage conditions are so rigorous. As your buying power grows, so do the risks.
Higher volumes are always accompanied by higher potential losses. A momentary change in the market could impinge on the previous results. Thus, traders need an adequate risk management strategy.
What Makes a Good Trader
These are essential skills and traits that increase your chances of success. Remember that the outcome depends on you. Even the most renowned broker does not influence the markets or the trends of Nigerian social and economic life you need to follow.
1. Knowledge of the Market
This is a complex environment. The trader needs to explore it well. Learning never ends. As the CFD marketplace is vibrant, you need to keep track of the changes and adapt your strategies accordingly. Generally, traders need to accept wider spreads than for other instruments. Margin calls may be frequent, and overnight changes are not uncommon.
While knowledge is vital, it does not always guarantee success. Rookies must be aware of all risks associated with CFDs. This market may get volatile at times, which puts your funds at risk. Learn about the most efficient risk management techniques, and apply them in practice.
2. Training and Education
Every trader must devote time to training. Apply theory to practice, but do it safely. Reliable brokers offer demo accounts, so you may practise in a risk-free mode. Months of preparation may sound boring. Still, delving into live trades from the start is an expensive mistake. Make sure you know how to identify entry and exit points.
3. Planning
The experience you gain during the demo period is vital. It helps you develop your own system for CFD trades. You can test different strategies without risk, and create your roadmap.
You cannot trade on a hunch. To make steady profits from CFDs, develop a disciplined approach. Review your performance and update the plan regularly. It must be suitable for your goals and trading style. There is no place for gambling here.
The Bottom Line
It is possible to make money trading CFDs. They allow you to profit from upward and downward trends, and trade more than you deposit. However, there are a few important caveats.
Gain sufficient practice before trading in live mode. CFDs are generally seen as risky due to their leverage nature. However, leverage also explains their appeal. Until you know how to manage risks in this market, it is best to delay entry.
The entire world is on a steep learning curve regarding COVID-19 pandemic response and recovery planning. That’s why it is critical to identify and build on successes wherever they’re found. Any case – big or small – in which a country, a region, a health system, or another organization has demonstrated an innovative solution can offer transferrable lessons and inspiration for further innovation.
It is in that spirit that we focus on Japan. In its response to the pandemic, the country has squeezed maximum value out of long-established networks, raised awareness of the value of current best practices, and pushed to accelerate its plans for the future. This three-pronged approach – bringing past, present, and future to bear – is not only working to contain this virus but also serving to bolster the country’s resilience in future crisis scenarios.
First, Japan’s public health centers have shown how valuable a mesh of established networks can be in focusing and sustaining a broadly coordinated response. Second, “smart city” concepts are demonstrating how companies can sustain productivity under extraordinary conditions – even as they revitalize financially troubled smaller cities and service-strapped rural areas.
Third, Japan’s commitment to developing “super cities” – even as the country battles the pandemic – highlights leaders’ understanding of value and potential of systems that are aligned at a foundational level. Such systems will facilitate communication, collaboration, and innovation that responds rapidly to people’s needs even in times of undue stress.
Established networks
Japan’s small, locally focused public health centers predictably provide health care and wellness advice. But they also attend to a wider array of economic and personal needs. For example, they issue licenses for restaurants and bars and investigate cases of food poisoning. They also investigate potential cases of child abuse. They are central to the lives of those in the communities they serve, in several critical ways, and they have held that role for decades. As such, according to one public health researcher at the University of Tokyo, quoted in Fortune in June, a public health researcher at the University of Tokyo, “People trust the public health centers and will share any kind of information with them.”1
Since the dangers of this virus became apparent, these health centers, located across the nation, have been working in collaboration with the government and other entities to test people for COVID-19, and collect and analyze relevant data on confirmed cases. In particular, the Cluster Intervention Group, which operates under the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, works with the health centers to analyze these data.
Through this collaborative effort at the local (health center) and national (Cluster Countermeasure Group) levels, the country has been able to map the spread of the disease from its earliest appearances there. Importantly, Japan was also able to convey this information, via national and local communication campaigns, and through word of mouth at the health centers, sending a clear and aligned message to people all over the country about what to do to limit COVID-19’s spread.
Interestingly, prior to the pandemic, these public health centers had been dealing with reduced funding; the fallout from their limited budgets, in part, can be seen in the outdated state of their supporting technologies.2 But their contribution to fighting COVID-19 has drawn attention to the urgent need to invest in digital technologies at these centers, to improve both their ability to serve their clients, and their readiness to collaborate with other agencies. Nonetheless, these centers have done much with little: In a recent report by The Economist Intelligence Unit, though Japan received a “fair” score overall for its response to COVID-19, it earned high marks for its health care system and relatively low number of deaths.3
Idea to build on: Japan’s public health centers were already on the front lines of COVID-19 treatment. But any networked organizations – from fitness movements to educational institutions with connections through athletic programs – have the potential to mesh to compel best practice behaviors, or even share critical information (adhering to privacy regulations) in a time of crisis.
“Smart city” concepts
Last year, we published an article in The World Financial Review that highlighted Japan’s progress towards developing “smart cities” outside of the country’s biggest urban areas.4 The idea behind this movement is to revitalize Japan’s smaller, aging cities, by attracting and retaining younger workers. If younger people are willing to live and work in these less densely developed areas, blending with local aging populations, they will be a boon to the economies there. They will also remain, because a growing business environment will provide opportunities for career advancement, and a healthy work-life balance for those raising families.
During the pandemic, as more people and businesses have experienced telework, the attraction of such cities has become more apparent. People are intrigued by the opportunity of having a larger living (and potentially working) space while retaining easy access to offices as well as restaurants, cultural activities and other amenities. Such cities are also drawing increasing interest from companies that see them as opportunities to lower risk in any one area, while also providing employees with more lifestyle alternatives.
If younger people are willing to live and work in these less densely developed areas, blending with local aging populations, they will be a boon to the economies there.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 has heightened awareness of vulnerabilities inherent in a Tokyo-centric industry structure. Although, almost 40 percent of Japan’s population resides in the Tokyo metropolitan area, and most major businesses are headquartered there, the virus’s impact was felt immediately and widely. In fact, when COVID-19 cases peaked in Japan in April, most if not all of the country was shut down, even though the majority of cases were found in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Aizu Wakamatsu City – located about 300km from Tokyo – is one example of a smart city. This smaller, urban area, with about 120,000 residents, began launching initiatives in 2011 to support and promote digital industry. (Accenture has been working with the city and the University of Aizu since that time, first to develop a blueprint for digitally powered revitalization, and then develop the necessary platforms and services to turn concepts into reality.5) And today, 22 companies, including Accenture, SAP, and Coca Cola, NEC, Mitsubishi, Soft Bank, and Toshiba – have offices in the Smart City AiCT (a location that serves as a hub for showcasing and developing smart-city concepts).
Idea to build on: “Smart city” concepts have the potential to help large companies balance risk and attract the younger workers needed to revitalize smaller cities and towns anywhere.
Aligned foundational technologies
Recently, the Japanese government passed a “super city bill.” Essentially, this bill will allow several chosen local governments to be “regulatory sandboxes” in developing cities that provide and evolve a wide variety of connected, digitally driven services in direct response to the needs and desires of is residents. The ultimate goal of this initiative is “Society 5.0” – a national agenda – creating an environment where new technologies coalesce to achieve “both economic development and solutions to social problems in parallel.”6
Critically, in order to succeed, super cities will need aligned underlying technologies, most of which are currently in the proof-of-concept stage. Existing aligned platforms, however, have already shown how valuable such alignment can be, as they have facilitated collaboration in the fight against COVID-19. The benefits of “future city”-level alignment would be significantly greater; in such a scenario, for example, it would be easy to inventory and allocate critical resources (such as ventilators, or personal protective equipment) across cities and regions in real time, based on need. It would also be easier to innovate, assess, and replicate solutions.
This idea is akin to Accenture’s “Future Systems” concept, which applies to enterprise innovation: Since all companies are now tech companies, they must strive to build systems that are adaptable, boundaryless, and support humans, rather than the other way around, in order to achieve their full potential.7
Idea to build on: It’s one thing to patch and expand legacy systems; such an approach may yield short-term, isolated gains, in cities and in companies. But there’s far greater potential in investing in alignment at the foundational level.
Resilient Tomorrows
By noting these positive examples in Japan’s battle against COVID-19, along with the country’s plans for creating a better society through digital technology, we do not intend to minimize the country’s struggles. The pandemic has taken a severe toll in Japan, as it has in other places around the world. In fact, according to the Japan Times, a Bank of Japan survey in late June revealed the lowest levels of business confidence since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Nonetheless, there is much to gain from building on the concepts and practices we’ve highlighted – to fight the still-evolving health crisis, and to prepare for resilient tomorrows.
Shojiro Nakamura (left) co-leads the Accenture Innovation Center Fukushima in Japan. Hiroyuki Okabe (right) is a manager with Accenture Research in Japan.
By Terence Tse
CFOs are evolving into AI-driven transformation orchestrators, balancing finance, technology, and strategy while upskilling teams, managing risks, and driving measurable business value.
A key insight from this year’s AI for CFOs event, organized...
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Tragedy of More Missed COVID-19 Opportunities: Misguided Policies, Virulent Strains, New Waves, and Lost Years
By Dan Steinbock
As the epicenter of the COVID-19 is moving from the Americas to India and poorer economies, G20 countries remain severely affected. As the world faces new and more virulent strains, the world economy must cope with lost years.
At the turn of September, United States had more than 6.2 million accumulated confirmed cases. It was followed by Brazil (4m), and India (3.7m). In the absence of deceleration, the cases worldwide could soar to 54-60 million and deaths to 1.3 to 1.7 million by the year-end.
In the 1st quarter, China contained the outbreak. As the US and Western Europe failed to do so, the epicenter spread to both. In the summer, the epicenter has been in the US and the Americas.
If countries fail to slow down the acceleration of new COVID-19 cases, the past half a year could be a prelude to much worse across the world, especially as the epicenter is moving from the United States and the Americas to emerging and developing economies.
Recently, India has had the highest numbers of new cases globally. Despite alarming trends, the increase in cases should also be seen in the context of significant rise of testing in the past weeks.
G20 economies have been severely affected. Consequently, the world is about to face new and potentially more virulent strains, while the world economy is coping with lost years, as evidenced by the much-earlier-than-anticipated resurgences and secondary waves (see BOX).
The present commentary is based on Dr Steinbock’s new report The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities (August 7, 2020), with updated data. It focuses on the estimated COVID-19 human costs and economic damage in the world’s largest advanced, emerging and developing countries.
For the full report: https://www.differencegroup.net/covid19-report2. For Dr Steinbock’s interview on the central findings of the new report, see https://www.differencegroup.net/covid19-report2-interview.
His prior COVID-19 report (April 30, 2020) focused on the outbreak in China and the belated mobilization and containment failure in the US and Western Europe.
US epicenter and COVID-19 damage in the Americas
By September, the confirmed accumulated cases in the US amounted to almost 6 million – that’s half of all cases in the Americas.
To understand the full magnitude of the pandemic devastation in America, think of US states as independent economies. By September 1, as adjusted to the size of population, US states accounted for a whopping 22 of the 25 most-virus affected major economies worldwide (Figure 1).
Figure 1: COVID-19, World Economies and US States*
Total Confirmed Cases / 1 Million People
Typically, the top-25 ranking has room for only three sovereign countries (Chile, Peru and Brazil), which are all in Latin America. Yet, Brazil ranks only 21st in our list and is at par with Illinois and California. The poorest top-ranked US states, such as Louisiana and Mississippi, or those with the highest median age, including Florida, barely make the headlines. And India isn’t even in the list.
Like the US, Western Europe lost weeks in belated COVID-19 mobilization. But unlike the US, it has fought the virus more effectively thereafter. Moreover, unlike the US, most European economies have stronger health systems, universal healthcare and more comprehensive social support systems, which ensure a better cushion against the adverse public-health and economic damage, at least initially.
In contrast, the Americas, with its poorer economies and weaker health systems, has taken a severe hit. In Brazil, the Bolsonaro government initially ignored science-based evidence, shunned early mobilization and public-health imperatives. By the end of August, Brazil had the second-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world – some 3.8 million with quarter of a million cases in the prior week.
In the pandemic second-tier of Latin America, the key countries (Peru, Colombia, Mexico) each had some 600,000 to 650,000 cases at the end of August. At population-adjusted level, Chile’s pandemic has been one of the worst worldwide. In turn, US spillovers have contributed to the pandemic crisis in Mexico and certain other Latin American countries.
There is nothing inevitable about the pandemic crisis in the Americas, however. Canada’s track record relative to the US suggests precautions can work, despite evelated risks in the regional neighborhood.
Why policy mistakes in G20 compound human costs and economic damage worldwide
In fall 2020 and spring 2021, some countries will face secondary COVID-19 waves from a position of strength. These are countries that have managed to bend the epidemic curve. They are characterized with decelerating cumulative cases and lower positivity rates (percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested).
Other countries must struggle with the new waves from a position of weakness. These are countries that have failed to bend the curve. They are typified by accelerating cumulative cases and higher positivity rates.
Collectively, the G20 economies account for 90% of the gross world product, 80% of world trade, and two-thirds of the world population. What happens to G20 countries will affect the entire world – unfortunately that includes the pandemic.
Until recently, severe epidemic outbreaks were typically confined into poorer economies because more prosperous countries relied on science-based public-health policies. The COVID-19 case has been very different, however.
As some of the leading G20 countries mobilized against the outbreak belatedly and ineffectively, these policy mistakes contribute to massive human costs and economic damage. To gain a more realistic picture of the consequent threats, let’s use population-adjusted data, linear scale and focus on those economies in which cases are still accelerating and positivity rate remains high (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Cumulative Confirmed COVID-19 Cases (Per 1 Million)
Currently, the primary risk group involves particularly the United States and the Americas, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. While the positivity rates have decreased from peak levels in the US, total cases exceed 6 million and deaths amount to 200,000. Since US testing capacity remains inadequate and in Brazil testing is below that of Djibouti, the real number of cases and deaths are likely significantly higher in both nations.
Regionally, the Americas is followed by South Africa, Saudi Arabia and tiny Gulf states, Russia, and Western Europe, including the UK, Italy, France and Germany. In these countries, the numbers and the positivity rates, respectively, are significantly lower than in the US and Brazil. But many have been exposed to earlier-than-anticipated secondary waves, due to premature exits from the lockdowns.
In India and certain countries in Southeast Asia – the Philippines and Indonesia – where the outbreak arrived somewhat later, positivity rates remain alarmingly high. Yet, population-adjusted numbers remain lower than in most advanced economies.
In Japan, the true spread of the virus has been under-reported because low testing, which in population-adjusted terms remains below that of Pakistan, or about 4% of that in the US and the UK.
In contrast, China managed to contain the pandemic within a month or two, which has minimized human costs and economic damage in the mainland. South Korea’s early performance was successful but more recently it has been hit by several secondary waves, thanks to far-right Christian cult churches and the kind of conservative pandemic “denialism” that has infected much of the advanced West..
A new mutation, severe regional consequences
Recently, a “more infectious” COVID-19 strain was found in tested samples in Quezon City (Metro Manila) and Malaysia, which, in turn, has attributed the strain to cases imported from India and the Philippines. This development was anticipated in my report, and it requires aggressive vigilance.
Here’s why: Not so long ago, a mutation was discovered in the protein that permits SARS-CoV-2 to enter cells, possibly making it easier for the virus to spread. The implications are usettling. The original samples of the novel coronavirus out of Wuhan, China, were a variation that scientists call the “D” clade. Before March 1, over 90% of viral samples taken from patients were from D variation. Since March, however, a new “G” variation has been dominant (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Potential Transition of the Dominant Pandemic Form
Though not conclusive yet, current evidence suggests there has been a global transition from the D to the G variation. Worse, the G strain appears to increase COVID-19 infectivity.
If, as the researchers hypothesize, the G variation first accelerated in Europe, it deployed the global transportation hubs to migrate across the Atlantic to New York City, which then seeded many of the outbreaks in the rest of the US.
Here’s another unsettling implication associated with the global transition from D to G variation. It could make the pandemic burden of emerging and developing economies more challenging than currently anticipated. And that could occur after normalization in the US and Europe, when quarantines, lockdowns and travel restrictions are phased out in the West.
Due to proximity and regional spillovers from the US, the G variation has been dominant in South America since March-April. Perhaps for similar reasons – proximity with Europe – it has also dominated infectivity in Africa.
In Asia and Oceania, the less-infective D was more dominant until recently, however. Nevertheless, continued case acceleration and G variation dominance in several major countries and regions, coupled with the proliferation of secondary waves could change the status quo – for the worse.
Worse-than-anticipated economic damage and lost years
As I have argued since April, the IMF baseline scenario (World Economic Outlook, April 2020) was not adequately realistic because it ignored the fragile economic landscape that preceded the pandemic. Unfortunately, the same goes for the IMF’s new baseline case (WEO, June 2020), which expects a V-shaped recovery to ensue in 2021. Worse, the disastrous 2nd quarter results, which I projected in March, indicate that structural economic scarring will cast a longer shadow over more countries than currently anticipated.
Measured by GDP per capita (purchasing power parity, PPP), the adverse impact has been drastic and translates to several lost years; as defined by years of regression in per capita income, even in the world’s largest economies.
Instead of the expected 1-2% growth, high-income economies now suffer from the worst recession since the Great Depression. The outcome will not be the initially-hoped V-shaped recovery. Most already face 5-7 years of lost progress. In some cases, unsustainable debt-taking downplays artificially the coming debt challenges (e.g., Japan, US). Indeed, the coronavirus contraction is likely to trigger a series of debt crises in several advanced countries, which will have spillover effects in weaker economies.
The United States is a case in point. As its national debt now amounts to $27 trillion, US federal debt-to-GDP ratio has soared to 107%; that’s at par with the level of Italy at the eve of its 2010 debt crisis. But unlike Italy, the US remains a global anchor economy. And unlike the pre-euro Italian lira, US dollar remains a global reserve currency. What will go wrong in America will affect the rest of the world.
In the upper middle-income economies, most have already lost 5-7 years of progress. Prior to COVID-19, Argentina had been struggling with neoliberal legacies, while in Brazil the soft coup against the Lula-Rousseff administrations has penalized living standards since the mid-2010s. In these two major countries, the lost years are twice as many as among their peers. The only exception in this group – in fact, in all these groups – is China, which may avoid lost years, even if the per capita income growth will decelerate in the short-term.
Despite the strong structural growth potential, many lower middle-income economies are likely to be heavily penalized by the pandemic effects. Yet, there is great variety. Though the best performers have lost 3-4 years (India, Kenya, Philippines, and Vietnam), the worst ones may have lost a decade (Nigeria).
Among the low-income economies, the best economic performers initially expected growth rates of 6-7% in 2020 (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda). After the devastation of the global pandemic, they are more likely to see their growth prospects halve during the ongoing year. Moreover, Afghanistan, Congo DR and Yemen continue to cope with civil wars, foreign invasions and legacies of corruption. Worse, the pandemic threatens to push millions of children into malnutrition.
Preparing for new secondary waves
Despite the lost years in all income groups, the key question is how quickly countries can restore their pre-coronavirus rate of growth in per capita incomes. And that depends critically on their ability to effectively contain the pandemic.
Unfortunately, de-globalization will further undermine prospects for global recovery, due to new protectionism and trade wars. These challenges will be compounded by the Trump White House’s expanded wars in trade, technology and finance. While China is the first target, others – Germany and the EU, Japan and South Korea and so on – will follow in due time.
A Democratic Biden administration could alleviate the negative public-health and economic consequences, but its lead against the Trump White House remains elusive. Conversely, Trump’s second term could accelerate the path to a multiyear global stagnation or global depression, and a dollar crisis.
If the Democratic campaign proves stronger than anticipated, an “October Surprise” is likely. Such a scenario is defined as a major news event deliberately created or timed to influence the outcome of the US presidential election. In the US postwar history, embattled Republican campaigns have seized such scenarios to win the presidency, even at the cost of the national interest (e.g., Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980). Similarly, the Trump White House seems intent to win re-election at any cost, even a major military conflict with China.
The global pandemic effects can only be overcome through multilateral international cooperation across all political differences. Conversely, in the absence of such cooperation, those effects will compound negative scenarios. The pandemic-associated human costs and economic damage will not go away anytime soon and could get worse, much worse. Historical precedents are instructive.
Between 1918 and 1920, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people; every third person in the world at the time. The death toll amounted to 17 to 50 million. Yet, it was the second wave that proved far more deadly than the first.
Old lessons should underscore the importance of multilateral cooperation and proactive vigilance today until effective vaccines and therapies are widely available.
If we still haven’t learned the lesson of the second wave, we may be forced to learn it over a new crisis – a more protracted pandemic and a multiyear global depression.
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