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Trump Fired, Biden Hired, What Next?

By Dan Steinbock              

After the tight 2020 election, there’s only one way President-elect Joe Biden can win over both Americans and other nations. He has to deliver in multiple fronts, amid a divided nation and huge challenges.

“Trump has launched ill-advised trade wars, against the United States’ friends and foes alike, that are hurting the American middle class,” President-elect Joe Biden wrote when he set the tone of his 2020 campaign. The next US president will have to “take immediate steps to renew US democracy and alliances, protect the US economic future, and once more have America lead the world.”

Internationally, the hope is that Biden would restore US multilateralism, moderate trade conflicts, alleviate economic damage and push real struggle against the pandemic. Most immediately, Biden will seize a series of executive orders to reverse Trump’s policies and bring an end to “the era of demonization.”

The premise is that the new White House can avoid violence and legal roadblocks during the transition. The legal issues must be cleared by early December when the states must certify their results prior to the meeting of the Electoral College.

But when the Biden administration begins its work, it is expected to deliver. In a nation that’s highly polarized in terms of politics, economy, society, and attitudes toward the “forever wars,” that’s an overwhelming task. If, in addition to the House, Democrats can keep the control of the Senate, the task could be less challenging.

Here’s what’s ahead.

Another $2 trillion stimulus package

According to polls, every third American regards the coronavirus and health care the nation’s most immediate priority. That’s why, as the COVID-19 cases will exceed 10 million in America, President-elect Biden will launch his coronavirus task force.

Americans’ second priority is the economy. Following the 2020 election, the only real winner is campaign finance (in which Biden will seek to marginalize the role of big private money). Despite total campaign costs soaring to $14 billion, legislative ineffectiveness is likely to continue.

Soon political spotlight will shift to Capitol Hill. Senators will return on November 9 and House members a week later for “lame duck” session of Congress. At the top of the agenda will be the third wave of the coronavirus in the US, still another round of coronavirus aid and the contested economic stimulus.

While both Democrats and Republicans agree on the need for a new fiscal package, there’s been great disagreement about the details. In spring, Democrats’ starting bid was $3.5 trillion, as against the Republicans’ $1 trillion. After months of wheeling and dealing, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca) has slimmed her bid to $2.2 trillion, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has upped the White House’s offer to $1.9 trillion.

The $2+ trillion compromise will not appeal to the progressive left, which considers it too little too late, or the Republican’s ultra-conservative right, which regards it as too much too soon.

Without new deal, government shutdown

In the past, the Senate’s Republican majority has bitterly fought large stimulus packages. As that majority has diminished, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the pragmatic Washington insider, could prove more flexible.

Before the election, Congress could not pass a single one of the dozen appropriations bills. To avoid a government shutdown, Congress has approved a deal to finance government operations until December 11.

If Congress fails to find a deal by then, a government shutdown will loom after December 12.

Moreover, Capitol Hill is soon expected to witness a series of hearings focusing on financial regulators, particularly on the issue of lending to the ailing small-and-medium size entreprises (SMEs) amid the pandemic.

Furthermore, the CEOs of Facebook and Twitter are expected to testify before the Senate, which is likely to be a prelude to the big tech’s primetime in early 2021.

After 16-month investigation into the anti-competitive conduct by Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google, House Democrats say they’re ready to go after America’s monopolistic tech giants.

Economic erosion

As a longer-term objective, Democrats support significant tax legislation, which further divided the divided Congress. With a narrow majority in the Senate, however, the new administration could test increases in the top individual tax rate, corporate tax rate, plus changes to the estate tax, the treatment of capital gains and so on.

But after four years of Trump excesses, economic erosion is the cold reality.

True, until the third coronavirus wave fully kicked in and COVID-19 infection rates soared, retail sales increased 5.4% year-to-year still in September, but thanks to huge government support, low interest rates, and equally low inflation.

Despite four years of misguided tariff wars, the recovery of US exports proved very slow contracting by almost 15% still in August. US real GDP is likely to contract by 4% to 5% in 2020. As a net effect, the trade deficits that Trump pledged to eliminate soared to $80 billion in August.

US consumption-led recovery is leveraged to the hilt It relies far too much on costly fiscal stimuli that’s been necessitated by the failed response to the pandemic, and rapidly-rising debt, which both distort the real role of consumption.

As a share of GDP, US fiscal stimulus packages (13%+) are currently twice as large as those in China (7%). Thanks to Federal Reserve and overactive printing presses, ordinary Americans and foreign investors will end up having to pay much of the bill.

US national debt has soared to an $27.2 trillion, which puts US federal debt-to-GDP ratio at 128%. The ratio is at par with that of Italy amid its recent debt crisis. But unlike Italy, US is one of the world’s anchor economies.

What happens in America will not stay in America.

Old new foreign policies

The Biden administration will seek to present a very different tone, rhetoric and multilateral stance. The substance is a different story.

Last summer, Biden garnered a network of over 2,000 foreign policy advisors. Yet, his narrow inner circle comprises mainly veterans from the Obama and Clinton administrations, including his key adviser Antony Blinken, Hillary Clinton’s Jake Sullivan, as well as old hands Tom Donilon, Nicholas Burns, Kurt Campbell, and Michèle Flournoy, Blinken’s consultancy partner.

Unlike the consensus Democrats, the party’s progressive left remains concerned for the “great horror show” looming ahead: the collusion between liberal interventionists and Republican neoconservatives (who voted Biden rather than Trump).

  • The recent Washington Post op-ed by Blinken and the neoconservative Robert Kagan suggests that the nostalgia for the bygone “American Century” remains persistent, despite its dark track-record of forever wars from Vietnam to Iraq.
  • Nonetheless, America’s “forever wars” could prove more subdued, especially in the Middle East, due to economic limitations.
  • Unlike the Trump White House, the Biden administration is likely to honor the Iran nuclear deal and return to the negotiating table.
  • In the Middle East, Trump’s loss spells great challenges to Israel’s controversial PM Netanyahu and the end to US sponsorship of the Saudis’ Yemen War.
  • In North Korea, Biden will reinforce a more cautious line in nuclear talks.
  • While the old Cold War will continue against Russia, Biden will support more diplomatic initiatives, especially in nuclear weapons issues.
  • In a tactic that’s likely to be framed as an “alliance of democracies,” the Biden White House will try to unite America’s allies to exercise greater pressure against Russia, China and several other nations.
  • In public, Biden will seek distance from Trump’s trade and security hawks. In practice, his administration will coopt those aspects of the tariff wars which are seen as successful, while editing out the excesses.
  • While Biden will try to unite America’s allies to pressure greater concessions from China, he supports global trade and needs China’s cooperation in a number of issues, particularly climate change. The balancing act will be challenging.

President-elect Biden wants to be the president of all Americans.” The real question is whether that’s something all Americans want and whether he can restore US credibility after four years of domestic and international disasters.

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/

Based on Dr Steinbock’s global briefing on Nov 8, 2020.

Why Republicans and others concerned about the economy have reason to celebrate Biden in the White House

By Dr. William T. Chittenden

On day one, a newly inaugurated President Joe Biden will have to address a devastated economy – much like he and former President Barack Obama did a decade ago.

What can the country expect?

Forecasting how the economy will perform under a new president is generally a fool’s errand. How much or how little credit the person in the White House deserves for the health of the economy is a matter of debate, and no economist can confidently predict how the president’s policies will play out – if they even go into effect – or what challenges might emerge.

Regardless, voters tend to believe it makes a difference. And going into the election, 79% of registered voters – and 88% of Trump supporters – said the economy was their top concern. Given that, historical data suggests that those who are concerned with the economy have reason to be fairly satisfied with the election results: The economy generally fares better under Democratic presidents.

Inheriting a struggling economy

Biden will be inheriting an economy with serious problems. Things have improved markedly since the darkest days – at least, so far – of the pandemic back in the spring, but the economy remains in a dire state.

The latest jobs report shows that 11 million people remain unemployed – a third of whom have been without a job for at least 27 weeks – down from a peak of 23 million in April. Tens of thousands of small businesses and dozens of major retail chains have closed or filed for bankruptcy. Many states, cities and municipal agencies are reeling from the tremendous costs of spring lockdowns. And the economy has contracted 2.8% since the end of 2019.

And that doesn’t include the impact of what some officials – including Biden – have dubbed a “dark winter,” as severe coronavirus outbreaks in many regions of the U.S. prompt new economic restrictions.

Democrats have a better economic track record

In trying to get a sense of what kind of impact the election result will have on the economy, the past is a useful guide.

I study how the economy performs depending on which political party is in charge. Earlier this year, I did an analysis of this question, focusing on 1976 to 2016, and recently updated the data to include 1953 through October of this year.

In general, since President Dwight D. Eisenhower took office in 1953, the economy – as measured by gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation and recessions – has typically performed better with a Democrat in the White House. GDP growth has been significantly higher; inflation – a measure of the change in prices – has been lower; and unemployment has tended to fall.

The stock market tends to perform better with a Democratic president, rising 11% per year on average compared to 6.8% for Republicans. Despite his claims to the contrary, the stock market’s performance under President Donald Trump has been about average.

Perhaps the most striking difference I found is in the number of months the economy was in recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. From 1953 to 2016, Republicans controlled the White House for 432 months, about 23% of which were spent in recession. Democratic presidents held the reins for 336 months in that period, just 4% of which were in recession. The 2020 recession began in March has not been officially declared over.

One suggested explanation for this dramatic difference is that deregulation implemented during Republican administrationsleads to financial crises, which in turn cause recessions. Another is that factors a president does not have any control over, like a sudden increase in oil prices, are the usual causes of recessions. Others suggest that the economy’s better performance under Democrats is simply due to luck.

So even though voters tend to think Republicans do a better job steering the economy, historical data shows otherwise. Whether Biden continues that streak, of course, remains to be seen, especially given he’ll likely have a Republican-controlled Senate, which could frustrate his policy initiatives.

A silver lining in divided government

In my analysis, I also examined the impact of Congress and how having all, part or none of the legislative branch controlled by the president’s party affected the economy’s performance.

Interestingly, the U.S. has not seen Democrats in control of the White House and the House of Representatives with Republicans in charge of the Senate since 1889, when Grover Cleveland was president. So my dataset, going back to 1953, doesn’t shed any light on this particular legislative configuration.

However, I did find that the economy did pretty well when a Democratic president faces either one or both houses of Congress controlled by the opposition. During the 144 months when one of those conditions were true, the U.S. was never in recession. And when Republicans controlled Congress under a Democratic president, average monthly unemployment was the lowest of any condition, at 4.85%.

Of course, this doesn’t mean a divided government will lead to good results today. A pessimistic take is that there will be gridlock, and nothing will get done. In order to pass and sustain major initiatives, bipartisanship will be needed.

How to Take Your Local Business to Global Market

The world has become a global village – not many people truly understand what it means. From a business perspective, it means that the entire world is now your target market. You can earn big profit margins by selling globally and you get to avoid difficult competition.

There is only limited growth you can achieve in a local market. This is the reason why smart businesses reach out to other countries to sell their products and services.

While scaling globally might sound too complex and expensive, it’s actually far easier and doesn’t cost much. You might need some extra investment in the beginning, but it can be easily arranged through services that provide online business loans.  This article explains how you can take your business to the international market.

Narrow Down Your Market

The global market doesn’t mean you can pick any man on the planet and sell him your service or products. You have to identify your target markets and audiences before you take any step. It is also too difficult and risky to launch in multiple countries simultaneously.

Pick one country first and learn everything is to know about the market there. Create a business plan and see if your product or services would sell there. If there is already competition, you will need a plan to stand against them. And if you need professional help to propel your business further, check out the best marketing agency in NH.

Study International Audience

Just because two people would use what you offer doesn’t mean they are the same. It’s crucial to study them before you reach them with your message. Remember, the message you deliver to your prospects decides how they view you.

You wouldn’t want to do anything that could offend them instead of attracting them. Your message should use their pain points and your unique selling points in addition to a call to action. The pain points are only achieved after thorough research and experimentation. However, don’t experiment with something that could end your business before it made its debut.

Leverage Digital Marketing

Digital marketing is one of the reasons why most businesses thought of going global. It’s the change that came with the rise of technology, allowing everyone to network with the rest of the world. The borders no longer matter when you are using the internet.

You can use digital marketing to reach out to a specific audience. You just need to follow the first two steps before you come to this. Define the attributes of your target audience and the advertisement will reach them at the same cost as the local audience.

To take your business global and use digital marketing to promote it, it’s crucial to build a website and pages on other social media channels. If you do SEO right, potential customers from other countries will visit your website and do business if you have delivered the right message. It’s the cheapest and fastest method to launch globally, but you will have to face a big competition here.

Look for Local Experts

As a businessman, you must understand that you can’t do everything yourself. There is always a need for expert professionals that can do the required job better than you. This is the reason why experts of local markets must be hired to help you expand your business.

You can look for distributors who know the local market and how to get your product out. Likewise, it wouldn’t be a bad choice to look for retailers to promote your services. If you try to do everything yourself, you will get diverted from your own job. They might cost extra, but it will pay off if they successfully build a place for your business in that new market.

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How to Start Forex Trading and What to Look Out For

It’s no coincidence that the global forex market has grown on the back of sustained technological advancement, with the amount traded during each 24-hour period having recently peaked at $6.6 trillion.

While the advent of online and mobile trading platforms may have broken down many of the historic barriers to entry and empowered part-time traders across the globe, however, it has also spawned a dramatic increase in the number of rogue operators and created an unhelpful abundance of false information sources online.

Remember, the volatile nature of forex trading can be challenging enough, with between 70% and 90% of all currency investors losing money overall. With this in mind, how can you look to get started in the forex market and what are the key things to look out for?

1. Learning Your Trade and Identifying Viable Sources of Data

Let us start with the basics; you cannot hope to succeed as a forex trader without developing a viable base of knowledge and a keen sense of determinism.

Make no mistake; the former provides a solid foundation on which you can build viable trading strategies, while the latter enables you to understand the underlying laws that govern price fluctuations and avoid emotive trading over time.

You can draw knowledge from various sources, in the form of everything from seminars to paid academic courses. However, it’s imperative that you’re able to access reliable data sources, with the best options often found on market leading forex sites.

In the UK, these entities should be fully licensed and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), while they’ll offer direct access to extensive data tools such as real-time charts, breaking news feeds and comprehensive technical indicators.

Such platforms are also home to datasets such as global economic calendars, which enable you to adopt a more proactive approach and hone your trading strategy in line with real-world events and macroeconomic developments.

2. Make the Most of Demo Forex Accounts

When you access data and register for an account at a reputable forex broker such as Oanda, you’ll also be afforded access to a so-called “demo trading account”.

This essentially offers you access to a simulated, real-time marketplace, in which you can encounter accurate market conditions and hone your strategies without being required to community your hard-earned capital.

You can usually use such an account for a period of between three and six months, during which time you’ll develop practical market experience that puts your theoretical knowledge and real-world data into a viable context.

It’s crucial to go through this learning process when accessing the forex market, as it can often make the difference between failed and successful traders.

3. Start Small and Grow Your Venture Organically

When the time does come to start trading for real, it’s absolutely key that you start out small and by trading just one or two strategically selected currency pairings.

Your selection should be based on factors such as your outlook and appetite for risk, with options such as the USD/JPY offering relatively sanctuary and a viable safe-haven in a volatile marketplace.

From here, you can look to scale your forex efforts in line with experience and profitably, as you focus on growing in a way that’s both manageable and viable in the prevailing climate.

Over time, you can also look to diversify your portfolio further and trade alternative assets, so long as you don’t look to rush the process or put your capital at the mercy of huge and disproportionate losses.

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Top Property Investment Tips

Property investment has always been associated with multimillionaires and business tycoons, but that is not to say ordinary investors cannot thrive in it. In fact, many wealthy people are millionaires because they are in real estate. You can make it too; All you need is a good strategy and proper understanding of the industry’s dynamics, and you are ready to go! Read on for six basic tips to help you get in the top bracket of property investment.

1. Take advantage of Deferred 1031 exchanges

For years, 1031 exchanges have provided an easy way for property investors to postpone paying taxes following the sale of a property. They work by transferring the tax obligation for a specific property to a second property of “like-kind” that the investor purchases immediately after selling the initial property. For example, upon selling a property for $500,000, you are likely to remain with less than $400,000 after taxes. 1031 exchanges help you use all the money to purchase another property and only pay taxes after selling it. If you have chosen to use the 1031 exchange, consider using approved vehicles for 1031 exchanges such as Delaware Statutory Trusts. They help to eliminate the stress of managing the property as well as simplify tax reporting obligations. 

2. Prioritize location

The location has the bulk of the sway when it comes to real estate prices, and since property cannot be moved from one place to another, you have to ensure you spend your money on strategically situated buildings. Things to look at when determining the suitability of a location include proximity to public transport and social amenities. Check the condition of the neighborhood, too. Are there schools, universities, and offices in the vicinity?

If your plan is to sell the property in the future, check if the neighborhood has the potential of growing. New malls, apartment buildings, and colleges are all indicators of growth.

3. Partner with a reliable real estate agent

The work of a real estate agent in property investment is to take some of the workloads off the investor’s shoulders. They bring professional know-how to the table and save you the hassle of looking for contacts.

A real estate agent is likely to rent out or sell a property much faster than you would since they work directly with individuals on both ends of real estate transactions. Just ensure the individual or agency you work with understands your needs and has a good track record.

4. Don’t enter into any contract without legal counsel

Many people still play into the hands of deceptive agents and investors by signing contracts without seeking independent legal advice. Real estate attorneys know the laws and paperwork involved in real estate transactions like the back of their hands. They can easily point out concerns or clauses that you should know about before signing any papers. It may look like an unnecessary expense, but it can save you from tying yourself in costly contracts.

5. Do your research

Success in property investment is partly dictated by how deep you go in your research, as tiny oversights can prove costly during property resale. There are several online resources that can give you a nodding acquaintance with the history of a property you are eyeing and provide you with alternatives. Always check stats such as the median price of properties in a certain area and whether it has been rising or falling. Check how the neighborhood has performed in times of crisis and whether the population and number of homes are rising or falling.

6. Proper market timing

In real estate, timing separates the great from the good. Shocks or dips to real estate valuation happen all the time, and while the good property will certainly bounce back, you can only benefit from the fluctuation if you keep the property for a longer period. Proper market timing will expedite your way to a sizable equity cushion, which basically translates to a better chance of continuity in case of an unexpected turn of events. It also yields flexibility and freedom and gives you the chance to capitalize on promising high-priced investments.

Endnote

Any industry looks intimidating until you deep your toes into its waters. If you want to get into real estate, don’t be moved by those huge terms you see in journals. You don’t have to be an expert to excel. All you need to do is ease yourself into the trade and carry the right tools with you. Hopefully, the above tips give you a place to start as you set yourself up as an investor.

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How Could 70 Million Still Have Voted for Trump?

By Jack Rasmus

November 8, 2020

Media pundits and others have been deeply perplexed as to why so many Americans in this election–70 million in fact– nonetheless voted for Trump.

But it’s not all that difficult to understand. There are 3 major explanations: One economic. One health. And the third, and most important, a matter of culture and racism manipulated by clever politicians for the past quarter century at least.

The first explanation—economics—is that the red states (Trump’s base) did not ‘suffer’ as much economically from the recession as have (and are) the blue states and big urban areas. The red states shut down only in part and for just a couple weeks then quickly reopened as early as May. A few hot spots in New Orleans and Florida were quickly contained. By reopening quickly they economically minimized the negative effects of the shutdowns and quarantines. They would eventually pay the price in health terms for early reopening, but they clearly chose to trade off later health problems for early economic gains. At the same time they quickly reopened, the red pro-Trump states still received the economic benefits of the March-April Cares Act bailout that pumped more than a $trillion into the economy benefitting households directly–i.e. this was the $670 billion in small business PPP grants, the $350 billion in extra unemployment benefits, the $1,200 checks, and other direct spending on hospitals and health providers. The Trump states got their full share of the bailout, even if they didn’t need it as much after having reopened early. Finally, if Trump supporters lived in the farm belt sector of Red State America, they additionally got $70B more in direct subsidies and payments from Trump that was designed to placate the farm belt during Trump’s disastrous China trade war. That’s 3 main sources of added income the red states as a general rule received that the blue states, coasts, big cities elsewhere did not get. In short the economic impact of this recession was therefore far less severe in the geographic areas of the greatest concentration of Trump’s political support.

Second, Covid did not negatively impact the red states as much as it did the blue states and major urban areas of America—at least not until late in Sept-Oct after which much voting had already begun and political positions had hardened. And then when Covid did hit the red states late, it impacted relatively more the larger cities and not as much initially in the small towns and rural areas of Trump’s red states. Covid’s impact economically was therefore relatively worse in big urban areas, especially in the coasts.

But even more important than these relative economic and health effects, the continued support that exists for Trump in his base of red states—i.e. in the small town, rural, small business, and religious right areas—is grounded in the ‘ethnic’ composition of his mostly White European heritage followers who are fearful ‘their’ white culture is being overwhelmed by the growing numbers and diversity of people of color in America.

This fear is the foundation of his—and their—white nationalism which is really a form of racism. So too is their anti-immigration. It is anti-immigration directed against people of color–whether latinos, blacks, muslims or whomever. White European heritage, small town, rural, evangelical, small business ‘heartland’ of the south & midwest America sees ‘their America’ disappearing or at least having to share more equally with people of color America. The latter are now almost equal in population to White Europeans but are not equal politically or economically. They are knocking on the door and want in. They want their equal share.

The USA is about at 1854 in terms of historical times and events. The 2024 election may therefore be even more ‘contentious’, should Biden and the Democrats fail to aggressively resolve the economic and health dual crises deepening this winter in America.

But clever politicians have convinced White European America that it’s a zero sum game: what people of color America may get will be only at their expense! Sharing is not possible. Trump and others, who are manipulating this fear and discontent for their own political careers, have convinced them that it’s an ‘Us vs. Them’ zero sum game. That way those with wealth and real power redirect discontent from their four decades of obscene wealth accumulation at the expense of everyone else, white or non-white Americans. Whipping up and redirecting discontent into identity and racial identity themes means the super well off won’t have to share with either White European or non-White European people of color.

Pit the one against the other, while they–those of wealth and power–continue to ‘pick the pockets’ of both. That was, and remains, Trump’s strategy in a nutshell. It’s also the strategy of his wealthy backers. It’s the age old American ruling class racism ‘shell game’. Just now in the form of ‘old wine in new bottles’, as they saying goes. ‘America First’ means in effect White America of his political base comes first. Trump and financial backers and power brokers–like the Adelsons, Mercers, Singers and their allies–have convinced White European America in the heartland to be fearful and oppose equality for Americans of color elsewhere. That’s why Trump sounds very much like a ‘White Nationalist’, and even at times as pro-fascist because that’s the message of the far right as well. His theme of ‘Make America Great Again’ is really, when translated, make White European America safe again and stop the hoards of people of color taking ‘their America’ from them.

Here’s why they fundamentally support him: Trump has become their ‘bulwark’ against this demographic change which they fear above all else. That’s why Trump could do or say whatever he wanted and move increasingly to further extremes, and they’d still support him. They would support him even in dismantling what remains of truncated Democracy in America, if it were necessary in their view. And they still will continue to support him. Neither Trump nor Trumpism is going away. It has taken deep root in the 70 million, waiting for a resurrection in 2024 or even 2022.

All this is not unlike what happened in the USA in the 1850s decade. The USA is about at 1854 in terms of historical times and events. The 2024 election may therefore be even more ‘contentious’, should Biden and the Democrats fail to aggressively resolve the economic and health dual crises deepening this winter in America. Should Biden adopt a minimalist program and solution–in the name of a renewed ‘bipartisanship’ strategy aimed at placating Mitch McConnell’s Republican Senate–then ‘Bidenomics’ is doomed. It will result in a midterm 2022 election sweep return of Trump forces, maybe under the leadership of Trump, or maybe a Ted Cruz, or maybe a Marco Rubio. Or maybe some clever new face. A minimalist Biden program will suffer the fate of Obama’s minimalist economic stimulus program of January 2009, which resulted in a massive loss of electoral support for Democrats in the midterm elections of 2010 and in turn led to the loss of the US House of Representatives Democrat majority and then the Senate soon after. The economic consequences of that particular gridlock following that are all well known. There is a great risk of the same occurring in 2021-22.

The 2020 election looked in some fundamental ways a lot like 2016, with the differences today being the working and middle classes in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania flipped back to Democrats in 2020 after having voted for Trump in 2016. It was a 3 state flip. That flip was because Trump simply did not deliver on his 2016 promises to bring good paying industrial jobs back to those states after 20 years of free trade, offshoring, and the de-industrialization of the region. A good example of Trump’s failed promises was the Asian Foxconn Corp., maker of Apple iphone parts. Trump and Foxconn promised to bring 5000 jobs to the US upper midwest. It never happened. Foxconn’s operation in the US today is limited to only 250 jobs in a warehouse. So the upper midwest again slipped back by narrow margins to the Democrats. But if the Democrats now can’t deliver jobs either, they’ll just as easily slip back again in 2022 and 2024.

The other difference in 2020 from 2016 is the emergence of real grass roots movements in Georgia and in the southwest in Arizona-Nevada; Black folks and their allies in Georgia and Latinos and Native Americans in the southwest. Also new organizing and mobilizing of people of color and workers in places like Philadelphia, Detroit, Erie, Pittsburg, and elsewhere.

The 2020 election looked in some fundamental ways a lot like 2016, with the differences today being the working and middle classes in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania flipped back to Democrats in 2020 after having voted for Trump in 2016.

These new growing grass roots movements are the real political forces that determined Biden’s win, along with the working class and middle classes disenchantment with Trump’s failed promises. Biden’s win had therefore less to do with Nancy Pelosi’s strategy of targeting suburban white women, vets, professionals and independents. That strategy failed to produce any ‘blue wave’ whatsoever. In fact, it resulted in Democrat loss of seats in the House of Representatives, while wasting tens of millions of dollars on futile Senate races like that in Kentucky against Mitch McConnell. Just think if that money was spent in Georgia. If it was, there might not be the need to have runoff elections there this coming January for the state’s two Senate seats.

No, the Democrat leadership grand strategy was a definite failure; the strategy of mobilizing the grass roots in Georgia and the southwest, a strategy not supported much financially by the Democrat party leadership, is what has put Biden in the White House.

What remains to be seen is whether Pelosi, Shumer and the moneybag corporate donors of their party will understand what has really happened this election cycle and really why Biden won (and the House and Senate campaigns largely failed). If the leaders of the party now go the route of a minimalist program in 2020, as did Obama in 2009, they will no doubt come 2022 suffer a similar fate as Obama and they did in 2010. Then we will all be back to ‘square one’ with a resurgence of Trump and Trumpism once again.

The Democrats are at an historical crossroads. They can either understand the real forces behind the 70 million supporters who voted for Trump, or they can ignore history in the making and repeat history of the past of 2009-10 and subsequently suffer the same consequences in 2022 and certainly 2024. But don’t expect the media pundits to understand any of this, any more than they can even now comprehend why Trump’s followers number in the tens of millions despite his loss. They and Trump are not defeated yet. They have been merely ‘checked’ for a while.

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About the Author

Dr. Rasmus is author of the 2020 published book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump’, Clarity Press. His website is http://kyklosproductions.com, twitter handle @drjackrasmus, and he blogs athttp://jackrasmus.com. He hosts the Alternative Visions radio show every Friday at 2pm eastern time.

Trump’s Unilateralism, China’s Multilateralism and the Real COVID-19

By Dr. Dan Steinbock

New estimates on actual COVID-19 cases in 2020 highlight the stark differences between the Trump administration’s unilateral stance, and China’s multilateral approach to overcoming the pandemic challenge.

The failed containment of the COVID-19 pandemic is about to result in 50 million cumulative confirmed cases and more than 1.2 million deaths around the world.

Worse, the official figures are only a tip of the iceberg. Some 10 percent of the world population may already have had the new coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Consider the implications: That translates to 780 million people – almost 20 times the official total. The global stakes are far higher than currently acknowledged.

The official narrative                    

The cumulative confirmed cases in the United States are about to surpass 10 million; in India and Brazil, 9 and 6 million, respectively. Meanwhile, several economies in the Americas and, once again, in Western Europe and Russia are coping with secondary waves.

At the end of October, the daily confirmed new cases remained highest in the US, where they were rising for the third time, and India, where they were falling (over 60,000 in each). The two were followed by Brazil, Argentina and Colombia, where cases were stagnating, and France, Russia and Spain, where they were climbing.

From March to early April, the first US wave peaked at some 32,000 daily cases. Daily numbers more than doubled to 67,000 during the second wave in June-July. As the third wave ensued after mid-September, those figures exceeded 70,000.

In Western Europe, countries that initially tested inadequately (France) or emulated US stance of minimal intervention (UK) have had peaks of 20,000 to 35,000, respectively. Countries that implemented broader interventions (Germany) are also coping with new peaks but the numbers are significantly lower (Figure 1)

Figure 1. Cumulative Confirmed COVID-19 Cases*

The unofficial narrative                

Policymakers use models to provide estimates of the true number of daily new infections. In these models, the projected actual infections far outnumber confirmed cases, although they differ by how and how much infections have changed over time. Here the focus will be here on (mean) estimates by Imperial College London (ICL) (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Projected “True” COVID-19 Cases*

In this view, the early trendline was relatively highest in spring, due to high infectiousness and minimal testing. The peak of the US pandemic likely occurred in March-April when the projected daily cases peaked at about 600,000 (20 times higher than the official figure). The second wave caused another escalation to 190,000 cases (almost three times higher), while the current cases average around 110,000 (almost double the official figure).

In the UK and France, the first wave caused projected cases to soar to more than 170,000 and 115,000, respectively (4-5 times higher than the confirmed cases).

The stakes were arguably highest in China, which had to cope with the outbreak first. In the mainland, the daily confirmed cases soared to more than 4,000 in early spring. However, the projected daily count may have been closer to 124,000 (30 times higher than the confirmed figure). Yet, rapidly- and broadly-implemented quarantines bent the epidemic curve in just a few weeks, thanks to China’s reliance on science-based public-health measures.

If, instead, China had opted for the delays and denials of the Trump administration or the UK’s initial stance of not-so-benign neglect, such a scenario could have resulted in a global catastrophe, due to the world’s most populous nation, the peak travel season and the epicenter in the major transportation hub of Hubei.

Race for vaccines 

Since early spring, the vaccine race has been on among 180 candidates, over 40 of which are being tested in humans, especially by US, UK and Chinese drug giants.

Despite some challenges, Oxford University/ AstraZeneca (UK) hopes for a late fall 2020 release. Like AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson (US) had to temporarily stop trials after participants fell ill in the process. Following a delay of large-scale human testing with government regulators, Moderna (US) aims to start distribution in early 2021. Pfizer (US) has four vaccine candidates still in early-stage human trials, but two have been fast-tracked by US regulators.

In the meantime, China’s SinoVac is currently testing its vaccine on 10,000 volunteers in the mainland, 9,000 in Brazil and a smaller group in Indonesia; and the state-owned SinoPharm on 15,000 in the Middle East and Latin America.

Last July, the emergency use of experimental COVID-19 vaccines was authorized in China. In mid-October, the city of Jiaxing, south of Shanghai, began to offer a vaccine under development by Sinovac, focusing on medical and and other key groups. Having administered the drug to diplomats and workers traveling to Belt and Road countries, SinoPharm offered its drugs for free to students planning to study abroad (168,000 signed up).

SinoPharm is also conducting final Phase III trials for its two vaccine candidates in 10 countries.

In this pandemic, it’s the weakest links that shape the future. Medical and scientific experts in the West remain concerned about outcomes if people refuse to take the vaccines when they become available. According to new research, the willingness to take “a proven, safe and effective vaccine” is the highest in China (87%), but significantly lower in the West, particularly in Eastern Europe.

Failure of unilateral nationalism

Launched in April by the WHO, France and the Gates Foundation, the COVID-19 acceleration mechanism (ACT) seeks to provide innovative and equitable access to diagnostics, treatments and vaccine.

As WHO chief Dr Tedros has warned, “vaccine nationalism will prolong the pandemic, not shorten it.” To avoid such scenarios, over 180 countries are considering participation in COVAX, a global initiative to provide countries equitable access to vaccines. It is critical to lower-income countries, and vital to higher-income self-financing countries without bilateral deals with manufacturers.

Recently, WHO and Vaccine Alliance (GAVI) applauded China’s decision to join the COVAX. In contrast, the US has spurned the initiative, which aims to secure 2 billion doses of a safe and effective vaccine by the end of 2021.

As the projected estimates suggest, the stakes of the COVID-19 pandemic struggle and the broad implementations of mass vaccinations are multilateral and global challenges. Conversely, unilateral stances fuel new pandemic waves and delays in remedies.

Last April, amid the first COVID-19 wave in the US, President Trump sought to shift the blame by halting US funding to WHO. In May 2020, before the end of the review period, Trump declared that the US would “terminate” its relationship with WHO. The timing of these unilateral decisions by a major WHO funder threatened to undermine the world organization’s activities at the worst possible moment.

The global pandemic’s effects can only be overcome through multilateral international cooperation across all political differences. In the absence of such cooperation, those effects will only compound new, negative scenarios.

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About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net/

The original version was published by China-US Focus on November 3, 2020.

US election: what the tight results mean for Democrats and Republicans

By Thomas Gift

As vote counting continued in key battleground states in the US election, Joe Biden edged closer to the White House while Donald Trump launched multiple law suits. Whatever the final result, Democrats have not secured the resounding landslide against Republicans many of them had hoped for. Thomas Gift, associate professor and director of the Centre on US Politics at UCL, looked at what the close margin of the race means for both parties.

Q: Whatever the final vote count, what does the closeness of the race mean to the dynamics within the Democratic Party and the authority of Biden’s leadership of it?

When it comes to governing, mandates matter. Even if Biden ekes out a win, he will enter the White House knowing that nearly half of all American voters supported another candidate. That surely weakens Biden’s bargaining position with Republicans on Capitol Hill. Less appreciated, however, is that it could also reduce Biden’s strength within his own party.

If there’s one take-away from the primary season, it’s that the Democratic Party is riven by major policy divisions between moderates and progressives. Although some of those divides were suppressed in the lead-up to election day, they haven’t disappeared.

If Biden’s win is seen as less than decisive, progressive Democrats could try to exploit that result to undermine Biden’s efforts to govern from the centre. Biden says that he will stand up against the far left flank of his party. But pressure to make concessions may be greater than if he’d had won in a landslide.

Q: What does the closeness of the race mean for Trump’s ongoing position within the Republican party?

Even if Trump can’t pull out a win, the closeness of the election points to a clear take-away: support for Trump within the Republican Party remains strong. That makes it hard for critics to write off Trump’s success in 2016 as a fluke. It also means that, regardless of the Republican Party’s future, it’s likely to maintain some non-trivial “Trumpian” elements.

Many conservative “never-Trumpers” hoped that a resounding Trump loss would force the party to rethink its current trajectory. That resounding loss didn’t happen. So, while it’s possible the Republican Party could snap back to its former self and ask “Trump who?” as soon the president leaves the Oval Office, that prospect looks less likely now.

Trump’s appeal, and particularly his acumen for exciting the Republican base, can’t be ignored by Republicans – including many members of Congress who just got re-elected by running on pro-Trump platforms.

Q: Voter turnout has broken records in the 2020 election. But what does the popular vote margin for both candidates reveal about how divided America still is?

America is divided. That much is clear. It’s not just divided on issues – about how to tackle climate change, what marginal tax rates should be, and what stance the government should take on US-China trade. It’s divided about the meaning of America itself.

The record high turnout that we witnessed is likely to be evidence of both sides subscribing to the view of 2020 being the most consequential election of our lifetime. On the left, voters saw Trump not just as wrong about policies, but as an existential threat to the nation’s institutions. On the right, voters saw Biden not just as misguided on issues, but as emblematic of a drift toward socialism.

One silver lining of 2020 is that it has alerted more Americans to the value of civic engagement. But it’s hard not to think that – at least on some level – record high turnout is symptomatic of many citizens simply sensing there’s something ailing American democracy.

Q: It’s looking likely that whoever is elected may not control both the House and the Senate. How difficult will it be for him to govern?

Divided government always implies gridlock. Yet it doesn’t mean the gears of policymaking in Washington totally grind to a halt. Presidents are generally less constrained by Congress in foreign policy compared to domestic policy. If elected, for example, Biden could re-engage the US with the Paris Climate Agreement, rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, or roll back the trade war with China.

Increasingly, presidents have also turned to executive orders to push through their agendas in the face of Congressional resistance. During his term, Trump signed a number of executive orders to enact reforms over homeland security, healthcare, the environment, and other issues.

Although executive orders are more easily overturned, their effects can be significant. Biden, for example, has said that he would use an executive order to implement a national mask mandate amid COVID-19.

The article was first published in The Conversation

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About the Author

Thomas Gift is Associate Professor of Political Science at UCL, where he is founding Director of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) and Director of the Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) Programme. Currently, he is a Fellow in Residence at the University of Oxford’s Rothermere American Institute and a Visiting Fellow at the LSE United States Centre. 

Offshore Gambling for UK Citizens

In recent time, the debate on how much regulation should be imposed on gambling and casino operators have been fierce. Of course, abuse cases are numerous, and several gambling operators cannot deny noticing cases of gambling addiction. This has made it imperative that the way and manner in which casino operators’ work is being reconsidered and monitored. While the rules and regulations for casino operation seem fair, not every casino operator agrees.

The different regulatory bodies around the world, such as the UKGC, have made their intentions and penalty for violations clear. However, despite the apparent need for regulatory supervision, some operators have chosen to operate their casinos from more relaxed jurisdiction. In this text, we explain what offshore gambling is and why some casino operators prefer to operate in this manner. Also, considering how volatile gambling is and the risk of problem gambling, one may wonder how much regulation is necessary.

What is Offshore Gambling

Offshore gambling is carried out in offshore casinos and is the exact opposite of gambling with Licensed operators anywhere globally. Offshore operators are not bad guys as they are legal entities without a UK license or presence in the UK. Not to forget the twist involving operations from places where there is laxity towards the operator’s responsibility to customer’s safety.

This cannot be interpreted to mean that all offshore operators that exist are unethical, or at best, legal scammers. Nevertheless, the sad fact is that several rogue licenses have ruined jurisdictions’ reputation, including Curacao, Antigua, and Barbuda. Basically, every Caribbean gambling regulator’s reputation has been tarnished, and nothing has been done to change that situation. It is clear why some casino operators who do not find having a license from strict jurisdiction operate offshore.

Offshore operators have publicly been banned and prosecuted in jurisdictions that are very serious in this matter, their reputation irrespective. This has been the mode of operations in socially highly-rated markets like Canada, the UK, Australia, and the United States. However, in places where online gambling is not considered or regulated, offshore casinos can find greener pastures to thrive possibly.

What is Licensed Gambling?

Just as one would need a permit to drive, casinos need to get a license from regulatory bodies before operating. The regulatory body will only issue a license to operate after such a casino has passed a thorough evaluation process. The evaluations are to confirm if casinos are good enough to practice and protect both clients and the gambling industry. The list below is a few points out of the long checklist required by regulatory bodies for casinos to meet.

  • Complying with all of the jurisdiction’s standards of operation, as well as technological standard to guarantee fairness
  • Transparency of the source of money received
  • Adhere to the protection of customer from the dangers linked to problem gambling
    Once licensees are permitted to operate, they have to deal with penalization and huge fines or revocation if they default.

Gambling with Offshore and Registered Casino and Gambling sites
Registered casinos in a jurisdiction, such as the UK, are required to be a part of Gamstop. The UK setup Gamstop to promote safe gambling and combat problem gambling via self-exclusion. But when people wish to bypass Gamstop and still gamble in a casino they can trust, there are offshore casinos. A player’s safety may be more guaranteed in a registered casino, but there are some honest offshore casinos.

Sometimes, the regulations and restrictions placed on licensed casinos may be considered too harsh even by customers. This may cause more reasons why people may want to patronize offshore casinos even though their safety may be at risk.

Conclusion

One of the major reasons why some casino operators may prefer to operate offshore is likely cost-effectiveness. Unlike their licensed cousins who have to pay taxes and risk getting penalized for misconduct, offshore casinos worry about nothing. Also, there is the upside of getting more customers who prefer unrestricted access to gambling activities regardless of the risks.

The only important thing gambler must consider is whether they will be fairly treated. After all, gambling itself is risky fun, no matter where you play or how you choose to play.

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Five Steps to Financial Freedom

Would you like to transform your financial health and draw closer to financial freedom by following a few simple rules? If so, check out the five items below, any one of which has the power to make your life better in multiple ways. Choose to follow one or more to add muscle to your budget and long-term ability to save.

Follow the 30 Dollar Rule

Credit card holders can help rein in their spending with this simple guideline: never use plastic on any purchase that is under $30. Not only will you save in interest charges but will likely notice that impulse buying decreases considerably.

Learn the Power of Refinancing

Some people go through life never learning this valuable technique, but it can save you a bundle if done right. Doing a re-set on a mortgage, student loan, or even a car loan can transform your monetary health in a matter of days. For instance, if you have education debt, refinancing it through a private lender, such as Earnest refinance, accomplishes two goals at once. First, you can consolidate multiple obligations into one simple loan with a single monthly payment. Second, when you do a refinance agreement, it’s possible to take advantage of better terms, a more favorable interest rate, and lower monthly payments. All of which means you stand to save money in both the short and long-run.

Use the Buddy System

Team up with one or two people you trust and have weekly money meals, to discuss problems and challenges you are facing. Without divulging personal financial data, it’s possible to leverage the power of several minds to come up with solutions you might not think of all by yourself. Holding money talk power lunches like these is a good way to stay on top of any issues that come up, like how to handle job loss, how to improve credit scores, or how to better plan for retirement.

Graph Your Net Worth

Net worth for an individual represents total assets minus total liabilities. The figure changes as you grow older, improving or deteriorating from time to time, but usually getting better in the long-run. Many people know their net worth at any given moment but never think to graph it in order to see changes. And, seeing how yours fluctuates from month to month can yield great insight into financial health. Consider keeping a graph and adding one point at the end of each month. After a half-dozen or so entries, you’ll have the chance to see whether your overall money situation is getting better or worse.

Find Out How Much House You Can Afford

Thinking of purchasing a house? Do you know the mathematical rule for figuring the maximum amount your mortgage payment should be? The answer is 28 percent of income. So, if you take in $4,000 per month, and are shopping for a new home, aim to keep the monthly payment below 28 percent of $4,000, which comes to $1,120. Of course, it’s even better if you can get well below the 28 percent mark; just be sure not to go above it or you’ll be putting undue stress on your finances.

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