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Wilawan Jitsuk’s Expert Review of HappyLuke’s Mirror Sites: Ballthai999, Fungamethai, and Hlthailand

happyluke casino

Hello, fellow online casino enthusiasts in Thailand! I’m Wilawan Jitsuk, and I’m here to share my expert review of HappyLuke’s mirror sites. As someone who has been exploring online casinos for years, I can tell you that HappyLuke is one of the most popular and reputable sites out there. But what about their mirror sites?

I’ve spent countless hours playing and testing HappyLuke’s mirror sites, and I’m excited to share my insights with you. From the early days of Hlthailand to the more recent Ballthai999 and Fungamethai, I’ve explored them all, and I’m here to give you a comprehensive comparison of each site.

One thing I’ve noticed about HappyLuke’s mirror sites is how they’ve evolved over time. From the less modern template of Hlthailand to the more Thai-friendly interface of Ballthai999 and the latest modernized homepage of Fungamethai, each site has its own unique features and offerings.

But my review isn’t just about comparing mirror sites. I’ll also share my tips and insights on how to make the most out of your experience on HappyLuke Casino. Whether you’re a new player or a seasoned pro, there’s always something to learn when it comes to online casinos.

So, if you’re looking for the inside scoop on HappyLuke’s mirror sites, keep reading. I’ll share my honest opinions and provide valuable information to help you make the best decision for your gaming needs. Let’s dive in and explore the top mirror sites for this popular online casino together!

The Role of Mirror Sites in Overcoming Online Gambling Restrictions in Thailand

As an online casino expert, I’m aware of the restrictions placed on online gambling in Thailand. However, HappyLuke’s mirror sites have played an important role in overcoming these restrictions and providing Thai players with a high-quality gaming experience.

The Thai ICT government has banned link sites related to online gambling, which has made it difficult for players to access their favorite online casinos. HappyLuke has tackled this challenge by regularly changing their mirror links, including ballthai999.com, fungamethai.com, and hlthailand.

By utilizing these mirror sites, players in Thailand can enjoy the same great games and services as players in other countries. HappyLuke’s dedication to providing a quality gaming experience has made them a popular choice among Thai players, and their mirror sites have helped to ensure that players in Thailand have access to their favorite online casino games.

As someone who has explored and tested these mirror sites extensively, I can confidently say that HappyLuke’s mirror sites are a great option for players in Thailand. These mirror sites provide a secure and convenient way to enjoy online gambling without the worry of restrictions.

The Evolution of HappyLuke’s Mirror Sites: A Brief History

As an online casino expert, I’ve had the opportunity to witness the evolution of HappyLuke’s mirror sites over the years. Each site has its own unique history and characteristics, making them worth exploring.them worth exploring

One of the earliest mirror sites of HappyLuke was Hlthailand, which operated between 2014 and 2017. While it provided users with access to HappyLuke’s casino games, the site’s homepage used a less modern template. However, it was a stepping stone in the development of HappyLuke’s mirror sites and laid the foundation for what was to come.laid the foundation for what was to come

Ballthai999 was another popular HappyLuke mirror site that operated between 2017 and 2022. This mirror site offered a more Thai-friendly interface and updated the homepage template to be more modernized. It quickly became a favorite among Thai players, and many still have fond memories of playing on this site.memories of playing on this site.

The latest HappyLuke mirror site is Fungamethai, which opened in 2023. This mirror site offers a focus on slot games and has updated the homepage template again to be even more modernized. As technology continues to advance, it’s exciting to see how HappyLuke’s mirror sites will continue to evolve and adapt to meet the changing needs of players.

How to Access HappyLuke’s Mirror Sites Safely and Securely.

As a HappyLuke mirror site user, I know firsthand the importance of accessing these sites safely and securely. In this section, I’ll share my tips on how to access HappyLuke’s mirror sites safely and securely.

First and foremost, only access HappyLuke’s mirror sites through trusted sources. One reliable source for finding the latest HappyLuke mirror sites is through online casino review sites such as Asiancasinoclub and Asiancasinocentral. These sites provide players with accurate and up-to-date information, which makes them a trustworthy source for accessing HappyLuke’s mirror sites.

Secondly, ensure that your device is secure before accessing HappyLuke’s mirror sites. This includes using a strong and unique password, enabling two-factor authentication, and keeping your device’s security software up to date.

Thirdly, be aware of potential scams or fraudulent sites. Always double-check the URL of the site you’re accessing to make sure it is legitimate and not a phishing site. Additionally, be cautious of any suspicious emails or messages that ask for personal information or login details.

Lastly, use a trusted payment method when making deposits or withdrawals on HappyLuke’s mirror sites. Look for trusted payment options such as Visa, Mastercard, or e-wallets like TrueMoney Wallet or PromptPay.

Conclusion of HappyLuke.com’s mirror sites

After exploring HappyLuke’s mirror sites, it’s clear that each site has its own unique features and offerings. From the early days of Hlthailand to the more recent Ballthai999 and Fungamethai, HappyLuke’s mirror sites have evolved and adapted to meet the changing needs of players.

It’s also worth noting the important role that these mirror sites play in overcoming online gambling restrictions in Thailand. By regularly changing their mirror links, HappyLuke ensures that players in Thailand have access to their favorite online casino games.

However, accessing these mirror sites safely and securely is of utmost importance. As a HappyLuke mirror site user, I recommend only accessing these sites through trusted sources, ensuring that your device is secure, being aware of potential scams, and using a trusted payment method.

Overall, HappyLuke’s mirror sites are a great option for players in Thailand who are looking for a secure and convenient way to enjoy online gambling. As someone who has extensively explored and tested these mirror sites, I can confidently recommend them to anyone looking for a high-quality gaming experience.

Best Online Pokies in Australia (2023): Top Australian Pokies With High RTPs, Cool Graphics & Generous Payouts

Online Pokies

Finding the best online pokies Australia has to offer is a hard task. Compiling the data, putting in the hours, breaking down the comparisons – this is enough to make you want to crack open a Coopers and take a load off just thinking about it.

Luckily for you then, you don’t have to – you don’t have to do the hard work, that is, you can still get yourself a can. We’ve done all the heavy lifting for you, and we’re itching to share our results.

While looking for the best online pokies in Australia, we crowned Las Atlantis as the top casino to play pokies online – with Ancient Gods being its best game. But it doesn’t stop there. We listed no less than 13 other alternatives for you to check out as well.

Ready to see our expert rankings? Let’s go.

Best Online Pokies in Australia

1. Las Atlantis (Ancient Gods) – Best Australian Online Pokies Overall

Ancient Gods

Pros:

  • Beautiful design
  • 280% pokies bonus
  • No fee banking
  • Amazing underwater theme
  • Games from leading providers

Cons:

  • Mobile compatibility could be better

Las Atlantis is our number one choice for pokies online, combining its exceptional design with some fantastic pokies-centric bonuses.

Pokies Library: 4.9/5

There are over 200 different pokies for you to feast on at Las Atlantis, including our top pick Ancient Gods, which combines deep fantasy with stunning design and high-stakes bonus rounds.

Other popular online pokies such as Asgard, Cash Bandits 2, and Coyote Cash are all here, too, so you certainly won’t be getting bored anytime soon.

Bonuses & Promotions 5/5

Las Atlantis features a number of exceptional promotions designed to beef up your online pokies experience. New players can opt for a range of welcome bonuses that are valid for up to five times.

This includes a 280% match bonus on your first ever deposit made at Las Atlantis Casino after opening your account.

Design & Interface: 5/5

We don’t mean it lightly when we say that Las Atlantis is one of the most beautiful casinos out there. While it’s not exactly difficult to outdo the competition in this aspect, we must give credit where credit is due – Las Atlantis is stunning with its beautiful underwater theme.

Banking Tools 4.85/5

There are numerous payment options available at this online casino. This ensures that you can easily deposit and withdraw funds when gambling. Most of the payouts are processed within a few days.

These are some of the payment options supported by Las Atlantis online casino:

  • Visa
  • MasterCard
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum

There’s a decent mix of banking tools available at Las Atlantis, even if the withdrawal section is a little sparse. The true appeal of banking at Las Atlantis is the fact it charges absolutely zero fees on any deposit or withdrawal, which is more than a lot of other online casinos can say.

We have one other mild criticism: the withdrawal threshold being set at a $150 minimum. For regular players and high rollers, that’s no issue at all, but for the more casual amongst you, that’s quite a steep price to pay.

Follow this link to open your account at Las Atlantis and score your welcome bonus

Related Post: Best Online Pokies Australia

2. Ricky Casino (SquidPot) – Biggest Online Pokies Bonus in Australia

SquidPot

Pros:

  • AU$7,500 bonus + 550 free spins
  • Quality slots from leading providers
  • Supports fast payouts with low fees
  • Live chat support

Cons:

  • The FAQ section is not the best
  • The design could be better

Ricky Casino takes our number two slot with its mammoth welcome bonus and robust pokies library.

Pokies Library: 4.85/5

There are thousands of games available at Ricky Casino, and a huge chunk of those are pokies. Just ready and waiting for you to get online and spin to your heart’s content.

Our top pick of the casino is SquidPot, a very close-to-the-line reimagining of the Korean Netflix drama Squid Game, although I’m sure Ricky Casino’s lawyers will disagree.

The variety of pokies available at Ricky Casino is fantastic, with mega ways, progressive jackpot pokies, and special bonus rounds that’ll enhance your online casino experience and give you exciting gameplay.

Bonuses & Promotions: 4.8/5

RickyCasino has a pretty chunky welcome bonus of AU$7,500 and 550 free spins on “All Lucky Clovers 5”.

There’s a wagering requirement of 50x attached here too, so if you’re looking to cash this out, make sure you’ve got the time and the patience to spare.

Design & Interface: 4.7/5

Ricky Casino’s design is pretty plain and inoffensive. We’re not sure if Ricky is an actual mascot or not, and there’s no obvious way to tell due to the lack of theme going on. But still, it could definitely be a whole lot worse.

The overall user experience is smooth; most pokies loaded fine and gave us no real issues with loading or glitches.

Banking Tools 4.8/5

The banking options supported by Ricky Casino should be enough for the majority of the gamblers. This online casino supports deposits and withdrawals made via the following payment options: Visa, MasterCard, Neosurf, Bitcoin, and USDT.

You can find out more about Ricky Casino bonuses and promotions by clicking here

Related Post: Best Pokies for Australian Players

3. Hellspin (Gold Rush with Johnny Cash) – Best Aussie Online Pokies Site Design

Gold Rush with Johnny Cash

Pros:

  • AU$1,200 welcome bonus + 150 free spins
  • Unique design
  • Exciting tournaments
  • Curacao-licensed casino

Cons:

  • Not many bonuses

Hellspin’s exciting and unique design combined with an excellent welcome bonus and a great selection of casino games.

Pokies Library: 4.85/5

Hellspin offers another jam-packed library full of pokies for you to play with. There are thousands of games available here, and the vast majority of them are pokies.

Our top pick is Gold Rush with Johnny Cash, which is a very popular online slots title that you can play and have a lot of fun with.

Bonuses & Promotions 4.7/5

New players can grab a welcome bonus of AU$1,200, plus 150 free spins.

This is split across two deposits and has a wagering requirement of 40x. Unfortunately, there are not many other promotions offered to the players at Hellspin, which is a bit disappointing.

Design & Interface: 4.75/5

With a name like Hellspin, you’d expect them to have a theme to match, and it’s fair to say they deliver duly on this particular front. We’re not entirely sure what type of hell they’re trying to depict, but it’s sufficiently spooky and features lots of flaming skulls and skeletons.

Banking Tools 4.8/5

This online casino supports a great selection of banking options. You can find most of the traditional banking methods here, including bank transfers and credit/debit cards.

Apart from this, you can use modern payment methods such as BTC, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, Tether, TRON, as well as eZeeWallet, Paysafecard, and so on.

Follow this link to learn more about Hellspin’s latest bonuses and promotions

4. PlayAmo (Wolf Treasure) – Best Progressive Jackpot Pokies in Australia

Wolf Treasure

Pros:

  • AU$500 welcome bonus + 100 free spins
  • 1,600+ pokies from leading providers
  • Active since 2016
  • 12 banking options supported

Cons:

  • Steep wagering requirements

PlayAmo takes our next spot on the list with its excellent high roller bonuses plus a diverse selection of pokies on offer.

Pokies Library 4.75/5

Another fine selection of pokies awaits you at PlayAmo, with lots of different options to choose from, including bonus buys and progressive jackpot pokies – there are over 1,600 slot games you can find here.

Our top pick here is Wolf Treasure, admittedly a pretty popular pokie you’ll find at lots of different sites – but well worth mentioning nonetheless.

The keener-eyed amongst you will notice a pretty firm focus on crypto at PlayAmo, with Bitcoin-exclusive slots and offers. Overall, this is definitely a top online gambling destination for those who are looking for a diversity of pokies.

Bonuses & Promotions: 4.7/5

Once you join, you can take advantage of the first two deposit bonuses, which add up to AU$500 in bonus funds and 100 free spins. The wagering requirements are set at 50x, which is above average for the industry.

There are many other bonuses and promotions available at PlayAmo. Players should check out all the promotions offered by this online casino before deciding which one to opt for.

Design & Interface 4.65/5

PlayAmo’s home page is overwhelming and crowded, and it can be a little confusing at first glance. We didn’t experience any issues while browsing and playing games, but we think it would benefit from better organization.

Banking Tools 4.7/5

There are lots of decent payment methods supported by PlayAmo, with some niche options you won’t find at many other online casinos.

In total, PlayAmo supports 12 banking options. Among them, you can find Visa, MasterCard, Maestro, PoLi, Neosurf, UPayCard, BTC, BCH, ETH, DOGE, LTC, and others.

Find out more about all the latest PlayAmo Casino promotions here

5. Casino Rocket (Lion Gems) – Best AUS Pokies Site for Crypto Users

Lion Gems

Pros:

  • $1,500 + 150 free spins welcome bonus
  • Sleek and modern design
  • Excellent loyalty program
  • Dedicated Telegram channel

Cons:

  • Not the best design

Casino Rocket’s modern design and excellent crypto pokies selection are what make it one of our top picks.

Pokies Library: 4.65/5

Despite being a relative newcomer to the online gambling industry, Casino Rocket has fast become a prime destination for Aussies looking to play their favourite online pokies.

Our top pick here is Lion Gems, an animal-themed slot from software developer Playson. This particular pokie is high volatility and has a 95.55% RTP, so it might be better fitting for those of you with more patience and experience.

Bonuses & Promotions: 4.7/5

New users are welcome to opt-in to a welcome bonus that totals $1,500 in bonus funds and 150 free spins, split across their initial deposits. These come attached with a wagering requirement of 45x, which isn’t as high as others on this list but still high enough to require some time to cash out.

Design & Interface: 4.75/5

Casino Rocket is definitely one of the nicer-looking online casinos out there, featuring a modern design that we wish more online pokies websites would adopt. Functionality-wise, we did encounter some intermittent loading issues, which tested our patience at times – but nothing too bad.

Banking Tools 4.6/4

Solid – it is the best way to describe the payment methods on offer at Casino Rocket.

There are a lot of popular choices here, including Visa and MasterCard, as well as BTC and several other digital coins.

Payouts are usually processed quite fast, without any fees.

Follow this link and score Casino Rocket’s generous welcome bonus

Runners-Up:

How We Ranked the Best Online Aussie Pokies & Sites

Pokies Library:

First and foremost, we’re all about the pokies, baby. All of our mini-reviews start off by showcasing all the real money pokies on offer, as well as different variations or anything worthwhile mentioning.

If a particular casino has other games worth looking at other than AU online pokies , we may mention those here too.

Bonuses & Promotions:

Bonuses are everywhere these days, especially at online pokies casinos. In fact, most bonuses you are offered are usually aimed squarely at pokies players. That’s both a good and a bad thing.

We’ll take a look at each bonus and break down the often overlooked terms and conditions. That way, you’ll know for sure whether you’re getting an awesome promo or a dud not worth bothering with.

Design & Interface:

Another factor that our team focused on when working on this list was the design and interface of the online casino.

The other side to this category is more about functionality. Playing online pokies ain’t much fun if the casino doesn’t work properly or you find it difficult to find your favourite game. Basically, we’re looking for intuitive user experiences.

Banking Tools:

All payment options should be safe, secure, and accessible. The more available, the better. We’ll be looking for a diverse range of options to choose from, including e-wallets, vouchers, and perhaps even crypto, if possible.

Check out our similar articles:

Best Australian Online Pokies – FAQ

Can I Play Online Pokies in Australia?

Yes, you can play real money online pokies in Australia. This article tells you exactly where and how.

Can I Win Real Money When Playing Online Pokies in AUS?

Yes, you can win real money playing online pokies.

Are Australian Online Pokies Rigged?

No, Australian online pokies for real money are not rigged. There is a house edge attached, but this is true of all casino games.

How Much Can I Win When I Play Online Pokies in Australia?

The amount you can win when you play online pokies depends on the type of pokies game you are playing, the casino you are in, and the amount you’ve staked. There are many variables involved.

Can I Play Free Online Pokies in Australia?

Yes, some casino sites allow you to play online pokies for free. Free pokies are usually offered by Australian online casinos to allow new players to test out the games before they start to pokies for real money.

What Are the Best Online Pokies to Play in Australia?

Choosing the best online casinos in Australia for online pokies is a matter of personal choice. We have many different favourites, although our top choice is Ancient Gods at Las Atlantis.

Comparing the Top 5 Online Pokies Sites in Australia

Las Atlantis: Las Atlantis’ beautiful theme and all-around excellency make it our number one choice for pokies players in Australia – it is also one of the best mobile casino sites out there. Sign up now to claim your 280% pokies bonus.

Ricky Casino: Ricky Casino caters to bonus fans with juicy offers and a diverse set of pokies to play. Sign up at Ricky Casino now to claim your $7,500 bonus + 550 free spins.

Hellspin: Edgy doesn’t quite cover Hellspin’s demonic theme and excellent selection of real money pokies. Sign up at Hellspin now to claim your $1,200 bonus and free spins.

PlayAmo: PlayAmo’s high roller bonus and diverse selection of pokies make it a must-visit for any Aussie looking to get stuck in. Register at PlayAmo now for your chance to claim a $500 welcome bonus + 100 free spins.

Casino Rocket: If you are looking for the best crypto gambling site for pokies, Casino Rocket’s selection of pokie games is well worth a browse. Register now at Casino Rocket to claim your $1,500 + 150 free spins welcome bonus.

How to Sign Up at a Top Online Pokies Site in Australia

Getting started at online pokies sites is usually very easy. Let’s discuss how it works at our top pick, Las Atlantis:

Step 1 – Open an Account

Step 2 – Complete the Registration Process

  • Log in to your email inbox
  • If you can’t find the validation link, check your spam box
  • Once located, click the link to complete the account validation process

Step 3 – Play Online Pokies

So, What Are the Best AUS Sites to Play Pokies Online?

After hours of research, our team of experts managed to find that the best online pokies site right now is Las Atlantis, and the best game to play is Ancient Gods. But it is far from being the only choice – our runners-up, Ricky Casino and Hellspin are very good, too.

Take one more look at our extensive guide to the best Australian pokies and pick the one that works the best for you. And as always, don’t forget to always gamble responsibly.

Related: Gambling sites in Australia

DISCLAIMER: 18+ only. Online gambling comes with many risks. Players are advised to gamble responsibly and only use funds they can afford to lose. Remember, gambling is only intended for entertainment purposes and is not a solution to any financial difficulties.

Gambling laws and policies vary from one region to another. Some sites mentioned in this review may not be accessible in your area. Always do your due diligence and check your local gambling policies. It is always better to be safe than sorry.

If you believe you may have a gambling problem, reach out to www.gamblinghelponline.org.au or call 1800 858 858.

Brits Consider Higher Paying Jobs Amid Cost of Living Crisis (+ Most Lucrative Admin Roles)

Cost of Living Crisis

Amid the growing Cost of Living crisis in the UK, a recent survey by admin recruitment agency Oriel Partners has revealed that 1 in 3 Brits are considering moving to higher paying jobs. The survey of 1,000 adults identified the most pressing concerns around the Cost of Living, with 76% of respondents affected by it. 

The results showed that 58% are cutting down on gas and electricity use due to affordability concerns, while 27% are “very worried” and 52% have “some concerns” about the crisis. Furthermore, 26% reported using savings for bills and 15% selling valuables or unneeded items just to reduce their spending. 

The highest impact was found amongst 25-39 year olds (81%), while 27% are considering changing jobs in order to improve financial stability. This is especially true for Londoners (35%) and those aged 25-39 (9%). 

In another study by storage specialists, Storage X, a quarter of UK-based adults have seen an increase in their monthly mortgage and rent payments due to the Cost of Living crisis, with 12% of Londoners forced to consider moving home in response to rising costs.

Commenting on the findings, Olivia Coughtrie from Oriel Partners said: “It is clear from our research that people in Britain are feeling the pressure from rising costs and many have had to make drastic changes including selling possessions, switching jobs or even moving homes.” She continued: “It is concerning that so many feel they need to switch jobs just to cope with living costs – this should be a warning sign for employers who need to ensure salaries can meet basic needs”. 

As Brits struggle to keep up with the increasing Cost of Living crisis, many are being forced into taking drastic measures just to stay afloat financially. Employers must ensure they offer competitive wages in order for their employees not only survive but also thrive in today’s economy.

Oriel Partners also conducted a separate survey on their pool of candidates to determine the average salaries for admin roles. Here are the results:

Oriel Partners Reveals The Highest Paying Admin Roles

Receptionist 

The role of a receptionist is to welcome clients, handle telephone calls and emails, and perform other basic administrative tasks. Receptionists are typically the first point of contact for visitors, and thus are required to have excellent communication and customer service skills.

  • Average Salary: £28,200 
  • Salary Range: £25,000 to £35,000

Team Assistant 

A Team Assistant is responsible for providing support to a group of people, whether it be an entire department or a smaller team. This role typically involves a wide range of administrative duties, such as scheduling meetings, managing calendars, and handling correspondence.

  • Average Salary: £31,000 
  • Salary Range: £28,000 to £48,000

Office Manager 

The role of an Office Manager can vary depending on the size and structure of the company, but generally involves overseeing the day-to-day operations of the office. Responsibilities may include managing staff, handling finances, and ensuring that office policies and procedures are being followed.

  • Average Salary: £46,000 
  • Salary Range: £28,000 to £90,000

Personal Assistant 

A Personal Assistant (PA) is responsible for providing support to an individual or a small group of people, typically in a higher-level role such as a CEO or executive. This role can involve a wide range of tasks, from managing the person’s calendar and travel arrangements to handling confidential information.

  • Average Salary: £48,300 
  • Salary Range: £30,000 to £80,000

Virtual Assistant 

As the name suggests, a Virtual Assistant is an administrative professional who works remotely from their employer. This role typically involves many of the same duties as a traditional PA or admin assistant, but with the added flexibility of being able to work from anywhere.

  • Average Salary: £50,000 
  • Salary Range: £30,000 to £60,000

Executive Assistant 

An Executive Assistant (EA) is similar to a PA, but typically supports a higher-level executive such as a CEO or COO. This role often involves more complex tasks, such as preparing reports and presentations, managing projects, and overseeing other administrative staff.

  • Average Salary: £56,000 
  • Salary Range: £38,000 to £120,000

Private PA 

A Private PA is similar to a traditional PA, but supports an individual or family rather than a business. This role can involve a wide range of tasks, from handling personal finances to arranging travel and accommodations.

  • Average Salary: £72,000 
  • Salary Range: £30,000 to £135,000

Chief of Staff 

The Chief of Staff (CoS) is a high-level administrative role that involves overseeing the operations of an entire organisation. This can include managing staff, coordinating with other executives, and handling confidential information.

  • Average Salary: £95,000 
  • Salary Range: £85,000 to £140,000

It’s clear from the salary survey results that administrative professionals can command high salaries, especially in more senior roles such as Executive Assistant or Chief of Staff. However, it’s important to note that salaries can vary widely depending on factors such as experience, location, and industry.

In addition to higher salaries, many companies are now also offering their administrative staff more attractive benefits such as flexible working arrangements, training and development opportunities, and even opportunities for career advancement. This is a positive sign that companies are recognising the value of their administrative teams and investing in their future.

If you’re an administrative professional looking for a new role or seeking to negotiate a higher salary, don’t hesitate to reach out to the team at Oriel Partners. They can help match you with top employers seeking talented and experienced administrative staff.

The Top Trending Topics in Retail Thought Leadership 

Thought Leadership

Thought leadership in retail is an increasingly important tool to establish yourself as a leader in the industry and promote your business. It involves taking a stand on the topics that you and your company believe need to change, helping you stand out from your competitors and forge your own unique space in the industry. This achieves media interest, greater brand identity, and a host of other benefits. 

In this blog post, we’ll explore the top 5 trending topics in retail thought leadership and how they are impacting the industry. We’ll also discuss the importance of delivering retail thought leadership, and how you can incorporate it into your marketing strategy. 

Introduction: What is Retail Thought Leadership? 

The retail industry is constantly evolving, and staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. Companies must stay up to date with the latest trends and developments, and be able to quickly adapt to any changes that may arise.  

Thought leadership can help businesses set the trends themselves and challenge the status quo. It involves looking beyond the present and predicting how the industry will evolve in the future. 

Here are the top 5 trending topics in retail thought leadership which you can use to establish yourself as an industry leader: 

Trend 1: The Rise of Sustainability & ESG 

The rise of sustainability and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives has become one of the most important trends in retail thought leadership. 

Consumers are becoming more aware of the environmental and social impacts of the products they buy, and they are expecting companies to take action. Companies must be prepared to respond to consumer demands for greater sustainability and ESG initiatives, or risk losing customers. 

Leaders can take advantage of this by making their views known about sustainability in the industry. By challenging the sector norms and suggesting solutions for how to improve retail’s sustainability and ESG performance, you can attract interest from the media and bring more eyes to your website and social media profiles. 

Trend 2: The Evolution of Online Shopping 

The evolution of online shopping has changed the way consumers shop, and it has had a major impact on the retail industry. Online shopping has become an essential part of the shopping experience, and it is now difficult to imagine the retail space without it. 

But the experience still isn’t perfect, and good retail thought leaders will be asking how we can improve it further. This could mean calling for all retailers to invest in technologies that can provide an enhanced shopping experience, such as virtual reality, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence. It could be about how we need to create omni-channel shopping experiences, involving creating a seamless experience across multiple channels, from online to in-store. 

Trend 3: The Impact of Technology & Innovation 

Technology and innovation are rapidly changing the retail industry, and these changes can be an exciting topic for thought leadership. 

The use of AI and analytics is becoming increasingly important in the retail industry. Companies are using AI and analytics to better understand customer behaviour, predict customer needs, and create a more personalised experience. Additionally, companies are increasingly using technology to automate processes and streamline operations. 

Thought leaders are beginning to cotton onto this trend and making their opinions heard regarding technology in retail. This is a particularly interesting angle for thought leadership as it appeals to multiple types of people – people in retail, people in technology, and people interested in the changing shopping experience.  

Trend 4: The Growth of Experiential Retail 

Experiential retail is an emerging trend in the retail industry. Consumers are no longer satisfied with simply browsing products online or in-store; they want a unique and engaging experience. Industry trailblazers are already creating immersive and interactive experiences for their customers, learning from restaurants and museum exhibitions who have been using these experiences to draw customers for decades. 

Experiential retail involves creating an environment that customers can engage with and explore. This could involve creating interactive displays, offering in-store events and workshops, or creating virtual or augmented reality experiences.  

This a great topic for thought leadership as the retail industry is still at the very early stages of making this a widespread approach. This allows you to truly get ahead of the curve and promote an opinion that appears left-field, inventive, and exciting. 

Delivering Retail Thought Leadership 

Retail thought leadership involves more than just keeping up with the latest trends and developments; it also involves delivering thought leadership in action. This means talking about your values and opinions in the public arena, whether than through channels such as LinkedIn or in interviews with major publications. This cements your position as an industry leader while indirectly bringing greater brand awareness and solidifying brand identity. 

Conclusion 

Thought leadership is an increasingly important tool in the retail industry. Companies must stay informed on the latest trends, developments, and customer behaviours in order to remain competitive – and if you are the person to inform companies and give your opinion on these trends, you can establish yourself as an experienced and knowledgeable industry leader. 

By staying informed and staying ahead of the competition, companies can ensure that they remain relevant and successful in the ever-changing retail landscape. 

Optimize Your Portfolio With Comprehensive Divestiture Advisory Services

Portfolio - Finance

There is a season when divestiture becomes your goal. Whether you are selling a complete company or carving out a division, you’re seeking divestiture advisory services that will assist in maximizing your portfolio in the process. At this point, it’s time to examine the offerings of divestiture advisory services to determine the quality of services offered and the full extent of services offered; after all, a divestiture is a critical process in the life of a company and those who’ve invested funds and, possibly, every ounce of energy, into it. 

A divestiture may include an entire company or the carve-out of a division; the companies that excel at divestiture take a systematic and proactive stance, carving out only as needed to reduce the impact to the business. When sellers require resources with which to pursue growth strategies in another area or to realize personal portfolio goals, the best process, conducted with divestiture advisory services, will offer minimal disruption, a positive process, and realized value in the end of the execution. 

The divestiture advisory services firm performs a number of significant tasks and, in the following list, we’ll examine those that will serve you, as the client, with the highest quality of each. The true goal of a successful divestiture should be to maximize your portfolio through thoughtful and deliberate planning; these services and tasks will also bring your portfolio to the highest level of optimization. 

The initial steps of a thoughtful and thorough divestiture must include analysis and selection. An initial valuation is completed, along with documentation of that value. In addition, a shortlist of target bidders should be prepared and reviewed by the client to pave the way for the bidding process and negotiations that follow. 

A very early step after the analysis and selection of target bidders is that of engagement with a business broker. The role of the broker is to act as an intermediary between buyers, the divestiture advisory group, and the seller(s). The broker facilitates the exchange of information and efficiently guides the process of divestiture to conclusion. 

Execution of the divestiture sale is accomplished as the divestiture advisory services firm executes the following key steps; tabulating responses from bidder interest, coordinating the due diligence process, performing a financial analysis of the bidder, facilitating communication between seller and bidder, and overseeing legalities involved in completing documentation required for the sale. 

A critical component of the divestiture sale is found in operational due diligence, which is overseen by the divestiture advisory services firm. The communication within any organization must be both effective and empathetic, as employee severance, management changes, and operations are often affected. Personnel need to be organized, educated and an efficient, streamlined approach should be offered to reduce disorganization and disruption.

The final integration of the divestiture includes any last-minute resolution of key issues, elimination of prior unknown elements, and coordination of alliances that will minimize risk and maximize value for the business. 

Divestments are sometimes fundamental in business strategies, with funds used to encourage growth in certain sectors or withdrawn to feed other interests or innovative processes. Optimizing your portfolio should remain as the first and primary priority of your divestiture advisory services firm from the beginning of the divestiture process to the end. 

As you consider the best repository for divestiture funds, you’ll want to consider funding a retirement account or funding a partner who will protect the legacy of the business you’ve grown from infancy. You may also want to support future generations within the family by partially funding, for example, a granddaughter’s dream of opening a wedding venue business. To protect your funds while encouraging her, you’ll present her with a wedding venue business plan to propel her business forward as you protect your funds. Whether you choose to fund a personal account or one that will drive new business growth in another arena, choose a divestiture advisory services firm that will carefully maximize your funding. 

Optimizing your portfolio via a divestiture is a serious undertaking and one that should be carefully considered from several viewpoints. Divestiture represents a permanent separation of funds from a complete company or a division within a company and, as such, there is no turning back without losing funds in the process. Consider the ramifications of divestiture choices with the divestiture advisory services firm and take advantage of the wealth of knowledge represented in the advisory firm, understanding that the wisdom found within the firm comes from years of divestiture experience.   

Independent Broker-Dealer Services That Will Change Your Game

Broker

If you are an independent investment banker, independent placement agent or an institutional financier, it’s time to look for broker-dealer sponsorship services. With the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) Series 79 investment banker licensing exam and compliance category requirement, along with “Pay to Play Rules,” licensing and compliance now beg for convergence between independent investment bankers, independent placement agents and institutional financiers with licensed independent broker-dealers. 

Will such a convergence drive growth, security and support for your business? It’s time to search for the answers that will change your game. Let’s examine broker-dealer sponsorship services and the ways in which convergence between your firm and a securities firm can positively impact your business and raise your game:

  • Customized broker-dealer sponsorships may be arranged after factoring in types of transactions, frequencies of transactions, compliance items and issues, current overhead, securities activities and licensing requirements of your firm. Not all securities firms offer broker-dealer sponsorships; you’ll want to investigate the services of each to determine if the firm is a fit with yours.
  •  Personal oversight by an individual or team creates a solid base from which to build and grow your business further. A team of qualified professionals will assume the commitment to your customized sponsorship and often includes compliance, regulatory, and other broker-dealer needs. This type of professional collaboration can be priceless, as you are receiving assistance from bankers and others who have years of experience in diversified fields. 
  • Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Transactional Advice is often offered and is invaluable, as advice and convergence from within the sponsoring firm are positioned expertly when sell-side and buy-side transactional and execution services are needed for clients planning to sell or acquire businesses. 
  • Capital-Raising is another service often offered in a broker-dealer services package. It includes advising and assisting companies to raise equity and debt capital from financing sources of all types and sizes.      
  • Independent Sponsors may also practice and provide capital advice and access through all aspects of the buyout process. This service is not always included, but can be of profound value when needed in a broker-dealer services relationship. 
  • Secondary Financings are focused on secondary markets in negotiations, purchases and sales of private securities and on buyers and sellers, including venture capital and private equity firms, family offices and individual shareholders. Again, while not always included in broker-dealer services, secondary financings can be a solid asset when needed and offer added value to the sponsorship relationship.

In addition to the services offered, an interactive broker dealer platform should be part of the broker-dealer services agreement. The platform is utilized to conduct several of the above transactions and adds a wealth of additional capabilities in several areas. In any broker-dealer services agreement, you’ll want to ensure a deep platform of digital capabilities is included. For example, a recent national travel agency company was acquired by a hotel management corporation. The travel agency business plan included complex legal contingencies for an acquisition process and a broker-dealer services sponsoring firm utilized the in-house broker dealer platform to execute the process to completion.  

The following tools and capabilities are essential within a high-quality broker dealer platform:

  • Interactive workspace: The primary purpose of the workspace should be to drive growth and support every integrated component of your business. It should facilitate lead generation and include specific support elements that your business requires. 
  • M&A Performance History: An excellent independent broker-dealer platform will have a rich history of transactions with at least 2B in aggregate deal value. Successful historical performance that was built via the platform suggests superior value for your business needs. 
  • High-speeds, efficient turnarounds and superior execution: Each of these characteristics will be built into a superior platform. Consider the value for your firm with each of these support tools, especially in terms of time-saving innovations they offer.  
  • User-friendly workspace free of complexity: A platform that performs freely and without cumbersome complexities is one that will support your efforts with results that can add significantly to your performance. Consider a user-friendly workspace to be of paramount importance. 
  • Significant library of resources: An optimal selection of resource and research materials should be included in any platform that is included in an independent broker-dealer services agreement. Lead generation tools should include such offerings as: IBISWorld, D & B Hoovers, Pitchbook, and more. 

In your search for independent broker-dealer sponsorship services, you’ll want to consider all of the crucial elements of the services and collaborative systems provided. You’ll also want to evaluate the platform used within those services that will drive growth in lead generation, research capabilities and M&A performance. It’s time to change your game!

Woof or Puff? The Dog Coin Phenomenon

Woof or Puff The Dog Coin Phenomenon

The meme coins are still here. Recently Elon Musk posted a picture of his dog Floki and introduced him as the new CEO of Twitter. This meme has triggered a rise in the price of some dog-themed tokens, so it seems that new cryptocurrencies dedicated to furry creatures will continue to appear and try to repeat the success of existing ones.

Of course, many people choose old and proven coins and buy THETA, BTC, ETH, etc. But there will always be those who want to take a risk and are looking at something new. So do dog-themed cryptocurrencies have a right to exist? Let’s take a WOOF token as an example and assess its pros and cons.

What is WOOF?

WOOF is a native token of the WOOF network. It is one more meme token, launched on the Solana Blockchain. The main use case for this token is governing of the WOOF DAO community. The token holders have a right to vote for various solutions that occur with the development of the platform. WOOF is an abbreviation for “We Own Our Future”. This project is dedicated to a dog welfare charity. This goal is being achieved by redirecting the percentage of fees to charity projects selected by DAO.

The project also helps to educate both people who are new to crypto, helping them to onboard,  as well as experienced users who would like to improve their knowledge. It supports traders by providing decentralized trading tools on the Solana blockchain. This blockchain is quite popular and hardly anyone else wonders what is Solana. Moreover, WOOF project creators can get help and promotion from the network, which sounds extremely motivating for developers.

As it is stated on the official website, WOOF became an experiment in impromptu community creation. In November 2021 a decentralized community was formed. The first token supply included 1 tr of WOOF, the whole amount was airdropped to early supporters. The release happened in May 2021. 50% of the supply was burnt daily. So the total amount decreased to 20 bn. The project survived a hard time during a bear cycle, however, the team came up with the idea of starting to build an NFT marketplace, which paid out well for the community. Thus, during the next airdrop in September 2021 they gave out NFTs.

Unfortunately, even though one of the accents of the WOOF platform is transparency, the real names or nicknames of the initial founders are unknown. This may be an alerting fact that the initial team decided to not reveal their identities, and looks like a disadvantage of the project. Nonetheless, they do share their future plans for the project and communicate with customers on social networks.

As for advantages, the community is a key factor for success. The wider and more supportive the community is the more benefits every single participant will get. WOOF was able to retain more than 95% of the community members during the roughest times, which shows the strength of it.

Also, the project supports all the dog breeds without choosing the preferable one, unlike its rivals.

Their marketplace is supposed to become an aggregator for NFT marketplaces built on the Solana blockchain, a real time saver.

The Year of Living Dangerously

By Dan Steinbock        

Global Economic Prospects at a Turning Point    

The year 2023 represents a turning point. If economic realities guide global prospects, it will be a positive turnaround. If geopolitics will continue to penalize economic prospects, a negative inflection point is more likely.

Recently, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), suggested that the year 2023 could “represent a turning point, with inflation declining and growth bottoming out.” She based the prediction on economic assumptions. Unfortunately, we no longer live under an economic status quo.

Since the mid-2010s and the advanced economies’ trade protectionism, sanctions and militarization, geopolitics has driven global prospects, as it did in the interwar period. As long as these underlying conditions prevail, so will persistent inflation.

The year 2023 could represent a turning point. Not the kind Georgieva had in mind – but a negative reversal.

Poor economies driving global growth                  

While the latest IMF projections show global growth slowing to 2.9 percent this year, the IMF anticipates a modest rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024. But it is the emerging and developing economies that are providing the momentum.

In 2021-24, the share of global growth by the largest emerging and developing economies will climb from 63 to over 80 percent. Accordingly, the share of the advanced economies will almost halve to less than 20 percent (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Global growth, 2021-E2024FIG1

Source: IMF

Starting from a low base, India’s GDP is still barely an eighth relative to the US and its growth is now slowing from the 7% growth projected to 6.8% in the 2023/24 fiscal year, as the global slowdown is likely to hurt exports. However, China’s GDP is already three-fourths of that of the US and this year growth in the mainland (5.8-6.5%) could prove almost as fast as that of India (6.0-6.8%).

Together, China and India are likely to account for almost a third of global growth in 2023, as the major advanced economies are coping with recessionary conditions. Furthermore, the share of emerging and developing economies of global growth will progressively increase, whereas that of advanced economies will continue to fall as secular stagnation is spreading among them.

The Fed as a global risk           

Global economic prospects have been further penalized by the US Federal Reserve’s ill-advised monetary policies, particularly since fall 2021. After years of easy money and rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed misread the market signals after mid-2021, when inflation started to climb rapidly, and Fed chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the threat of soaring prices calling them “transitionary.”

It was a fatal policy mistake, which a year ago led to my warning that US inflation was the global risk of 2022. With the onset of the proxy war only a month later, I predicted that the world economy would have to cope with the risk of stagflationary recession, compounded by energy and food inflation. The rest, as they say, is history.

In its February 2023 meeting, the Fed raised the interest rate to 4.5-4.8 percent, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2007. Recently, Powell warned of more rate hikes and seems to be aiming at a rate of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, thus flirting with a recession.

Rather than transitionary, inflation has proved sticky and persistent. Thanks to America’s central role of the US in the world economy, what happens in America won’t stay in America.  

Rich economies’ geopolitics penalizes global growth               

Recently, US stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month, with the S&P 500 Index dropping under 4000. Despite interest rate at almost 5 percent, the inflation rate, which soared close to 10 percent in summer 2022, slowed only to 6.4 percent in January.

After the US hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit set by Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that a failure to make payments that are due “would undoubtedly cause a recession in the US economy and could cause a global financial crisis.” New debt limit can be enacted, but not without unsustainable debt-taking.

In January, euro area bank lending fell again amid downturn, while cash and liquid deposits declined for the first time ever, thanks to rapid rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB analysts stressed that the euro area has “ shown remarkable economic resilience to the effects of the war [in Ukraine].” But that resilience is elusive because it’s also based on massive debt-taking.

Consumer price inflation was revised slightly higher to 8.6 percent year-on-year in January. That’s significantly below the peak of 11.1 percent in November, yet remains far above the ECB’s target of 2.0 percent. It is likely to result in half a percentage hike at the Bank’s mid-March meeting.

In Japan, inflation was negative until fall 2021. By January, it soared to 4.2 percent; the biggest increase since September 1981. Core inflation has been well above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for nine months in a row. This is largely attributable to continued increases in the cost of fuel and raw materials. Hence, the market’s rising concern about global bond market spillovers if and when the BOJ’s new chief Kazuo Ueda will hike interest rates (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Inflation and interest rates: US, euro area, Japan, and ChinaFIG2

Source: Tradingeconomics, Difference Group

China’s rebound offsets the Fed’s risks                 

When Chinese policymakers began to prepare the reopening of the world’s second-largest economy, many international observers warned it would unleash inflationary headwinds. But numbers do not back up the story.

China’s annual inflation rate rose to only 2.1 percent in January. Expectedly, prices of food jumped and those of non-food gained further on the back of the Lunar New Year festival and the removal of pandemic measures. Nonetheless, the inflation rate remains only half relative to Japan, a third to the US and a fifth compared to the euro area.

At the eve of the Two Sessions, Chinese leaders pledged stronger growth. Recovery is taking hold and economic activity picking up pace with the country’s reopening. China’s GDP growth could soar to 5.5 to 6 percent in 2023, or over 6 percent on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

Internally, China’s emphasis on social policies promoting a moderately prosperous society supports rising purchasing power among new middle-income groups. External risks have been in part reduced by the misguided US trade wars and protectionism, which have compelled Chinese policy authorities to stress the importance of self-sufficiency. Spillovers will be significant in those economies that participate in China’s huge Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the vast new trade bloc.

Global growth engines, without voice

The US, the euro area and Japan are struggling with secular stagnation and exporting runaway inflation. By contrast, China’s growth is accelerating while inflation remains in check. Its reopening could lift global GDP up to a stunning 1 percent in 2023.

Large emerging and developing economies are today’s global growth engines. Currently, their share of global growth exceeds 80 percent. While cyclical recession will end in the major advanced economies, their secular stagnation has barely begun. In the coming decade, the growth gap between the rich and poor economies won’t go away. It is positioned to deepen.

With broadening secular stagnation, the long-run economic growth in the major advanced economies will approach zero. Perhaps that’s why they are now so eager to use geopolitics and military muscle.

The original commentary was released by China-US Focus on March 1, 2023.

About the Author

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

6 Key Steps to Mastering Your Loan Obligations

6 Key Steps to Mastering Your Loan Obligations

Are you feeling overwhelmed by your loan obligations? Do you feel like the amount of money you owe is too much to handle and that it will take forever to pay off? You’re not alone. Many people struggle with managing their loans, but there are strategies and steps you can take to make sure your loans don’t become a burden.

In this blog post, we’ll discuss six key steps that can help you master your loan obligations so that they do not become unmanageable. We’ll cover everything from creating a budget for repayment to finding ways to reduce expenses, and more. By the end of this post, you should have a better grasp on how to manage your loans in an organized way so that they don’t overwhelm or stress you out financially. Let’s get started!

Know What You Owe

Knowing exactly how much you owe and when is imperative when managing loans. Having a clear understanding of all your loan obligations, including interest rates, minimum payments, and due dates will help you to stay ahead of your payments and keep track of expenses. Setting up routines and systems that allow you to stay organized are great ways to make sure nothing slips through the cracks as well as put you in a better position to negotiate loan terms or agree upon payment plans with lenders. The experience and strategies for mastering loan obligations can be complicated, but becoming mindful of the details is an essential part of the process.

Refinance if Possible

Refinancing your loan could save you a lot of money and make managing your obligations to it much more manageable. When you are seeking 504 refinance program refinance, you are essentially taking out a new loan with different terms than the first. This can mean a lower interest rate or better repayment options. It’s important to do research and find the loan with the best fit for you; just because one lender or institution offers a great option now doesn’t mean they will do so in the future. You can find different debt consolidation programs that can help you simplify your debts and make them more manageable. Whether you need help managing payday loan relief or student loan debt, investigate all of your options before you make a decision. Doing this means that you could potentially save thousands of dollars on your loan obligations while still meeting all repayment requirements.

Make Your Payments on Time

It’s easy to overlook or forget a payment – especially when you have multiple loans. That’s why making your payments on time is so important. If you accidentally miss a payment, it could be costly in terms of interest rates and credit score implications. To make sure your payments are always made on time, consider the convenience of setting up automatic payments so that everything is taken care of without having to manually do anything. You can also set up reminders for yourself if that’s something you feel more comfortable with. Either way, taking action today will help you remain in good standing with your loan obligations for years to come!

Pay More Than the Minimum

Paying more than the minimum due each month on a loan can be one of the most rewarding steps you take in managing your debt obligations. Not only will you reduce your overall debt over time, but as you make larger payments, it also helps make sure that you stay up to date with all payments and are not lulled into missing any deadlines or necessary changes. Paying more than the minimum is particularly helpful for credit cards, which cause accruing interest costs if payments are made too late. When it comes to paying off loans, more is definitely better – so if your budget allows for it, consider making larger payments to ensure a successful debt management strategy.

Avoid Taking on New Debt

Before taking on any new loan commitments, it pays to take a closer look at your current financial situation. It may be tempting to jump into another loan agreement in order to help finance a major purchase or debt consolidation, but this could end up digging you deeper into debt if you can’t manage the payments. Taking on too much debt at once can cause significant stress and strain on the budget, so it’s best to avoid any new obligations until you’re in a better financial spot. A valuable step for reworking your loan obligations is understanding the process, from creating a manageable payment plan to having leverage when negotiating additional assistance. With the 6 key steps of mastering your loan obligations, you’ll have clearer guidance as to what works best for your finances.

Seek Help if Needed

If you’re finding it difficult to make your loan payments each month, you’re not alone. Don’t feel defeated if the financial obligations of a loan seem too overwhelming – instead, seek help and guidance from a professional. Contact your lender or a financial advisor for advice and assistance. They might be able to provide you with a better understanding of how to manage your budget to fit in loan repayments, as well as negotiate a new payment plan if necessary. It’s important to take proactive steps like this to help tackle any difficulty in fulfilling your loan obligation before the situation spirals out of control.situation spirals out of controlManaging your loan obligations can be a complicated process, but with the right strategies in place, it’s possible to take control of your debt and stay on top of all payments. Knowing how to refinance, pay more than the minimum amount due each month, and avoid taking on new loans are all important elements for effective debt management. If you find yourself struggling to keep up with your loan repayments, seeking help from a professional is always an option. Through these 6 key steps, you’ll be better equipped to manage any loan obligations and make them much more manageable in the long run.

The European Economy Looks Stronger Than Expected in the New Era of ‘the Great Volatility’

European Economy

By Emil Bjerg, journalist and editor of The World Financial Review

In a landscape of intertwining crises, Isabel Schnabel, a Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, has coined the term ‘the Great Volatility’. But new economic forecasts from the European Commissions point towards a relative stabilization of the economy in the EU.

We live in a world that can seem more chaotic than ever: climate change, the pandemic, and internal polarisation. Adding to the global chaos is also what seems to be a new cold war forming between, on the one hand, the Western world with a belief in the rules-based world order, and, on the other hand, an informal alliance of aspiring countries seeking to end decades of Western hegemony. China’s willingness to challenge the US and – especially – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the Western world.

The increased and ever-fiercer competition brings a lot of volatility – geopolitically as well as financially. Volatility has been a keyword to describe the time and economies we live in, also in the European Central Bank (ECB), which use that concept to describe a whole new era.

Entering the Great Volatility

According to Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, we are moving from an era she calls ‘the Great Moderation’ to a period she defines as ‘the Great Volatility’.

According to Schnabel the Great Moderation was characterized by a “period of prosperity and broad macroeconomic stability”.

A number of factors and variables are driving this turn towards volatility as the new normal: climate change is one. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine continue to drive volatility.

Increasing technological and economic competition between the great economies threatens global trade. As Schnabel says: “Today, the world economy is at risk of fracturing into competing security and trade blocs. The international network that connects our economies is fragile. We are witnessing new and alarming forms of protectionism”.

According to El Pais, several global tendencies constitute the Great Volatility: “the re-regionalization of supply chains, the wide use of sanctions, tariffs, energy policy as geopolitical weapons, the fight against climate change”.

This tidal change means that it’s now difficult to say if it’s positive or negative news to the EU bloc when growth in China declines. On the one hand, the two economies are dependent on each other; on the other hand, the competition and rivalry between them seem to grow stronger from year to year.

A positive forecast from the EU

While it was a member of the executive board of the ECB that coined the term ‘the Great Volatility’, the president of the central bank was one of the first to declare that things are stabilizing in the EU. The news has become much more positive in the last few weeks

Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, said back at the World Economic Forum’s yearly meeting in Davos in late January. And her words are in sync with new numbers from the European Commission.

A recently released forecast from the Commission suggests that inflation is about to shrink to allow greater growth expectations. The forecast predicts growth rates for 2023 of 0.8 percent in EU countries and 0.9 percent in the Eurozone. While those may be low numbers, they’re a significant increase from the 0.3 percent that was the 2023 forecast back in November.

According to the forecast, growth rates will amount to 1.6 percent in the EU in 2024. Inflation levels are overall slowly looking healthier, especially for those who are patient enough to look at 2024. Next year inflation is predicted to get down to 2.8 percent in the EU.

What about that 2023 recession?

While both inflation and growth numbers will continue to look unusual throughout 2023, if the forecast proves correct, we’re already past peak inflation and will avoid a recession.

Christine Lagarde recently remarked about 2023: “It’s not a brilliant year, but it’s a lot better than we have feared”. The relative optimism in the forecast might prove to be a self-fulfilling prophecy: a certain level of consumer resilience and optimism will continue to be instrumental in avoiding negative growth rates.

The European forecast is backed by the late-January forecast from the IMF, which shows a significantly reduced risk of recession globally. Accompanying the forecast, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF’s chief economist, recently said: “We are seeing a much lower risk of recession, either globally, or even if we think about the number of countries that might be in recession”.

So what’s driving this relative optimism from the European Commission and IMF?

Factors behind the new-found European optimism

Essential to the optimism is that the European countries are coming out of a winter that was met with a lot of anxiety as gas deliveries from Russia became part of their hybrid warfare.

“The European gas benchmark price has fallen below its pre-war level, helped by a sharp fall in gas consumption and continued diversification of supply sources. With hindsight, the resilience of households and corporations has been impressive”.

It’s not too long ago that it was feared that energy rationing would drive up costs to the extent, that European economies would hit a hard recession. In their forecast, the European Commission states that: “The European gas benchmark price has fallen below its pre-war level, helped by a sharp fall in gas consumption and continued diversification of supply sources. With hindsight, the resilience of households and corporations has been impressive”.

While unemployment rates continue to be high in Spain and Greece, the general unemployment rate in the EU was at its all-time low – 6.1 percent – in December 2022 adding to the positive outlook. The low unemployment rate after years of a pandemic and war on the continent is perhaps the best argument that can be made for the expansive fiscal policies that have been implemented since the beginning of the pandemic.

Uncertainties to stifle the joy

It’s still too early to say with certainty that the economy in Europe is back on track: the signals are not unambiguous.

By the beginning of 2023, Germany could report that their economy had – unexpectedly – shrunk in the last quarter of 2022. In Spain and France, inflation increased at the beginning of 2023 after a period of relative normalization towards the end of 2022. When some of the largest economies of Europe face unexpected inflation, that can impact the whole Eurozone. As Jörg Kramer, chief economist in the German Commerzbank recently said to Financial Times: “There are clear upside risks for euro inflation”. On top of this comes that core inflation – inflation levels after excluding volatile items like food, gasoline, and tobacco – remains alarmingly high.

All this adds to the arguments for the ECB to raise the interest rates by yet another half percentage point in March. While the ECB chief economist said that “there’s significant evidence that monetary policy is kicking in”, they want to see drops in inflation “quite a long-lasting period, a fair number of quarters” before cutting interest rates.

On top of that, as mentioned, a variety of sources of volatility continue to threaten the European economies. The war in Ukraine, climate change, and trade wars with new tariffs and sanctions are among possible threats to the near future of the European economies.

Unsurprisingly the aforementioned forecast from the European Commission comes with the disclaimer that “uncertainty surrounding the forecast remains high. What is certain is that the Great Volatility has come to stay.


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