Kazakhstan is the world’s ninth-largest country by land area, what gives it significant advantages. Most notably, it has vast areas suitable for agriculture, combined with relatively favorable conditions for crop production, allowing it to emerge as a major producer and exporter of food. But while Kazakhstan’s agricultural exports have traditionally been dominated by unprocessed commodities, that model is now changing.
Kazakhstan is increasing agricultural production, expanding the geographic reach of its exports, investing in processing and modernizing irrigation infrastructure. As a result, agriculture is gradually evolving into a sophisticated agri-food system covering the entire value chain, from primary production and raw materials to deep processing and access to fast-growing markets.
This transformation is taking place against the backdrop of a broader restructuring of the global food system. Here is why Kazakhstan’s role in global food security could extend well beyond its domestic market.
Food Is Becoming a Global Resilience Issue
The global food system is currently facing several challenges at once. Population and incomes are rising, particularly in middle-income countries, while consumption patterns are changing and demand for meat, dairy products and other sources of protein is increasing. At the same time, agriculture is facing climate-related risks, water scarcity, rising input costs and disruptions to supply chains caused by geopolitical tensions.
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034[1], global agricultural and fish production is projected to increase by around 14% over the coming decade. Much of this growth is expected to come from productivity gains, particularly in middle income countries.
Yet there is another factor that is becoming just as important: international trade. The OECD and FAO project that by 2034, around 22% of all calories consumed globally will cross international borders. In other words, global food security is increasingly a question of moving food from countries and regions with surpluses to those facing shortages.
In this regard, the role of the leading economy of Central Asia – Kazakhstan – in these processes is noteworthy. In 2025, country’s gross agricultural output exceeded $18.2 billion, up 5.9% year on year. The country harvested 25.9 million tonnes of grain, including 19.3 million tonnes of wheat.
At the same time, Kazakhstan’s crop structure is gradually becoming more diversified.
Over recent years, the area planted with wheat has declined by almost 900,000 hectares, while oilseed acreage has increased by more than 1 million hectares and pulse crops by 275,000 hectares. This is important not only in terms of production volumes: a broader crop mix is creating a new raw-material base for the food processing industry. The shift has also been driven by the growing export and processing opportunities associated with oilseeds and pulses.
This export potential is reinforced by another of Kazakhstan’s key advantages: its geography. The country is located between some of Eurasia’s largest consumer markets. For the agri-food sector, this provides access to multiple sources of demand across Central Asia, China, the Caucasus, the Middle East and beyond.
In this sense, Kazakhstan’s geography is gradually being transformed from a historical constraint into an economic asset. The country can not only produce food, but also connect producers with fast-growing markets across neighboring regions.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has highlighted this potential. Addressing the UN General Assembly in 2023[2], he stressed Kazakhstan’s commitment to using its agricultural potential to help address global food shortages and expressed the country’s readiness to serve as a reliable supplier of grain and other socially important food products.
From Commodity Exports to Value-Added Food Products
But the most important transformation is taking place not in the fields, but after the harvest. The OECD’s 2025 review of Kazakhstan’s agricultural policy highlighted a structural feature of the sector: historically, around 60% of the country’s agri-food exports consisted of primary products. At the same time, Kazakhstan remains one of the world’s major wheat exporters[3].
This became a major opportunity for economic development. The logic is straightforward. If grain continues to be exported primarily as a commodity, a significant share of the value is created outside the country in the form of starch, gluten, pasta, animal feed, biofuels and other products. If, however, agricultural raw materials are processed domestically, more value added, investment and employment remain within the economy.
That is why food processing has become one of the central priorities of Kazakhstan’s agricultural policy in recent years.
According to Kazakh Government, 53 investment projects in agricultural processing, worth a combined $230 million, were launched in 2025. Food production reached $7.5 billion, up 8.1% year on year.
The momentum accelerated in January-April 2026. Food production reached more than $2.8 billion, representing a 14.4% increase year on year. Investment in fixed assets in the sector more than doubled, exceeding $800 million.
Exports are even more telling. In the first four months of 2026, exports of processed agri-food products reached $3.6 billion, accounting for more than 50% of total agricultural exports. The Government has set a more ambitious target of increasing the share of processed products to 70%.
In other words, the development model itself is changing. The objective is no longer simply to increase output by producing larger harvests, but to increase the economic value generated by every tonne of agricultural raw material.
How does this work in practice? Kazakhstan already has a substantial processing base, while government policy envisages further expansion of processing capacity. Under the country’s agricultural development plans through 2028, new facilities for deep grain processing are to be established.
This is also changing the export model. Previously, the chain was relatively straightforward from harvest to export. Now, additional stages are being added: processing, finished products, packaging and marketing, and logistics. This allows significantly more value to be created within the country.
As this model takes shape (which is reflected in the growth of food production) Kazakhstan is strengthening its role in regional food security.
Regional Food Security
Kazakhstan’s role is particularly visible in the grain market. According to the Government, between September 2025 and July 17, 2026, Kazakhstan exported 13.5 million tonnes of grain and flour in grain-equivalent terms, 12.5% more than during the same period of the previous season.
The strongest growth came from neighboring markets. Exports to Afghanistan rose by 59% to 2.2 million tonnes, while shipments to Kyrgyzstan reached 504,000 tonnes, up roughly 40%, to Turkmenistan reached 210,000 tonnes, an increase of 34% year on year, and to Uzbekistan increased by 37% to 5.6 million tonnes.
These figures illustrate how Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector is becoming increasingly integrated into the food supply system of the whole region. This is particularly important for Asia, where populations are growing, urbanization is accelerating, and agriculture in many countries faces constraints related to land and water resources.
Kazakh agricultural products are now exported to more than 72 countries[4]. Key destinations include not only Central Asia and Afghanistan, but also the European Union, the Eurasian Economic Union, Türkiye and China. According to official data, agricultural exports have nearly doubled over the past five years, rising from $3.8 billion to $7 billion.
This is part of a broader transformation in which international trade itself is becoming an increasingly important component of food security. The OECD and FAO emphasize that moving food from surplus regions to areas facing shortages can help stabilize markets and reduce the risk of localized disruptions. In this context, Kazakhstan is already emerging as one of the region’s important sources of food supply.
A New Agricultural Cycle and a New Export Model
The modern food sector is a complex system, particularly when viewed through the lens of export potential. Kazakhstan is already building such a system, with the goal not only of processing agricultural products but also of integrating more deeply into global food supply chains.
This is particularly relevant as international trade continues to grow in importance. According to FAO estimates, in 2025, the volume of food imports will increase by 7.9% compared to the previous year and reach $2.22 trillion.[5] Within this system, Kazakhstan has an opportunity to establish a position defined not simply by the volume of raw materials it produces, but by its ability to transform its natural and productive advantages into resilient value chains.
The Government is already working on several directions to develop the agroindustrial complex. The first is providing farmers with a modern equipment. While leading global agricultural machinery brands previously imported their equipment, production is now being localized in Kazakhstan. Manufacturers have begun investing in the industry, which has led to the modernization of existing plants and equipment upgrades, and the construction of new tractor and combine production facilities.
Since 2019, Kazakhstan has localized the production of wheeled tractors, grain and forage harvesters, reapers, tillage equipment, seeders and seeding systems, and much more. For example, in April 2025, production of American John Deere equipment began. A strategic agreement worth $2.5 billion has already been signed, cementing long-term industrial cooperation between the company and Kazakhstan. A total of 430 units of equipment were produced in 2025.
In 2026, several more global technology leaders from Europe, Canada, and North America began localizing their products. These include Väderstad, Dewulf, Lindsay Corporation, Amity Technology, Vervaet, Kuhn Group, and Brandt Agricultural Products. As a result, Kazakhstan now has 10 factories producing tractors, grain harvesters, forage harvesters, and cotton harvesters of varying capacities.
Overall, agricultural machinery production in Kazakhstan increased by 22% in 2025, and companies plan to produce nearly 10,000 units of modern equipment this year.
Focus: Deep Processing and Water Conservation
A second important area of development is the creation of facilities for the deep processing of agricultural raw materials. Three grain processing facilities with a capacity of over 510,000 tons are already operating in Kazakhstan, producing starch products, bioethanol, and gluten. By 2029, six more major investment projects worth $4 billion will gradually join them.
These include, for example, a plant in Astana belonging to the Tiryaki Agro, which will produce starch, gluten, and glucose-fructose syrup. The project’s value is estimated at $320 million. Another example is an already operating plant belonging to the Fufeng Group Company Limited, with a processing capacity of 3 million tons of corn per year, with an investment of $1.5 billion.
Also underway in the country are investment projects by the companies Dalian Hesheng Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and Hopefull Grain & Oil Group, valued at $650 million and $1.5 billion, respectively, which will focus on wheat processing.
These examples demonstrate how leading companies are investing significantly in Kazakhstan, contributing to the country’s development as an agricultural hub for the region.
Another equally important issue is providing Kazakhstani farmers with fertilizers. The country is building next-generation plants worth several billion dollars. By 2027, Qazaq Kalium Ltd. will launch the first stage of potash fertilizer production with a capacity of 1 million tons, and by 2035, it will increase production to 12 million tons. Given that Kazakhstan’s demand for this type of fertilizer is 100,000 tons, the country will become a major global exporter.
Furthermore, demand for urea will be met by the launch of three large-scale complexes in 2029-2030. These include KMG PetroChem, with a capacity of 800,000 tons; Qazesta Fertilizers Ltd., with a capacity of 700,000 tons; and KazAzot PRIME, with a capacity of 577,000 tons of urea and 500,000 tons of ammonium nitrate. At the same time, Kazphosphate, together with SINOPEC and CNCEC, is planning to expand its capacity to 5 million tons of phosphate fertilizers, with the first million tons of ammophos in 2029.
As a result, by 2030, Kazakhstan will not only fully meet its domestic demand for all key fertilizers but also enter export markets.
At the same time, climate change remains a key focus. Agriculture consumes approximately 60% of the country’s water resources, and it is here that modern watersaving technologies are being widely implemented. This significantly contributes to the sector’s development, making it more resilient to climate change.
Kazakhstan is implementing a comprehensive set of measures to encourage farmers to use modern irrigation methods to conserve water while increasing crop yields. These measures include, for example, reimbursing farmers’ costs for constructing the necessary infrastructure, purchasing and installing sprinkler machines, drip irrigation systems, and other modern equipment.
And these measures are already demonstrating positive results. By the end of 2025, the area covered by water-saving technologies reached 543,000 hectares. By 2026, water-saving technologies will be implemented on an additional 163,000 hectares. The gradual implementation of water-saving technologies is expected to result in up to 2.2 billion cubic meters of water savings annually. Land will be used more efficiently, conserving resources and increasing productivity.
This demonstrates how Kazakhstan is systematically increasing productivity, implementing new technologies, and expanding production, thereby strengthening its role in the global food system. The country is emerging as a major agrifood hub in Eurasia, and this model is becoming a logical step in the development of Kazakh agriculture.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky
