In fast paced world of financial markets and digital revolution, new and innovative financial instruments are constantly emerging. One such instrument that has gained immense popularity is perpetual futures commonly known as “perps.” These financial instruments are derivatives that have become a cornerstone of crypto trading, offering a unique set of features that distinguish them from traditional futures contracts. This article will focus on the advantages, and dynamics, of financial market use cases in terms of perpetual contracts or perpetual futures.
What Are Perpetual Futures?
Perpetual Futures are a type of financial derivative that shares some of the similarities in traditional futures contracts but operates with distinct features. Contrary to the traditional futures that have a fixed expiration date, perpetual futures do not carry a predetermined period. Hence perpetual futures eliminate the need for contract rollovers and provides a seamless trading experience for investors.
A defining feature of perpetual futures is its funding mechanism that is used to maintain the contract’s price as close to the spot market. This funding is exchanged between long and short positions periodically to prevent significant deviations from the underlying asset’s market price. This funding rate is calculated based on the difference between the contract price and its spot price, hence ensuring that the contract price stays in cohesion with the spot price of the asset. In case of making a comparison with the perpetual futures vs spot, there are couple of special benefits associated with this realm as spot takes the rightful ownership of the assets while perpetual futures are mere contracts deriving their value from the digital spot assets.
Advantages of Perpetual Futures
No Expiration Date
Perpetual Futures are perpetual in nature, and therefore offer a significant advantage for many traders. Traditional futures contracts have a determined or fixed expiry date that requires traders to end or close the deal at a certain date and then take physical delivery of goods. Perpetual contracts eliminate the hassle, providing continuous exposure to underlying assets, without the need for frequent adjustments.
Leverage
Perpetual futures allow traders to use leverage to maximize their earning potential. This feature allows for a profit amplification tool. But it works as a double-edged sword. Just as it maximizes the chances of return, it also amplifies the chance of liquidation and losses. Moreover, with the help of leverage traders can enter and exit positions whenever they want to.
Liquidity
Perpetual futures often demonstrate high levels of liquidity, that makes it an attractive choice for both retailers and institutional investors. This continuous trading with absence of expiration dates contributes to more liquidity, thus allowing traders to enter and exit positions whenever they want to.
Market Efficiency
This funding rate mechanism in perpetual futures ensures that the contract price is closely tracked to the spot market price. This alignment promotes market efficiency, thus reducing the chance of significant deviations between the two prices. Traders can have confidence that the perpetual futures market accurately reflects the broader market emotion.
Challenges and Risks
As perpetual futures offer various advantages, it is important to know that there are some risks and challenges associated with trading these instruments.
Funding Rate Risk
Funding rate is designed to keep the perpetual contract’s price in line with the spot market and introduces risk for traders. This depends on the trader’s position in relation to the capital they have invested as margin. Also, funding rate keeps on changing after a certain interval of time.
Leverage Risk
While leverage provides the potential for higher returns it also magnifies the impact of losses. Traders using high leverage without proper risk management may find it easier to have significant financial setbacks. It is therefore important to approach leverage with much precaution.
Market Volatility
Perpetual futures, particularly cryptocurrencies, are associated with prominent levels of volatility. Rapid and unpredictable price movements can lead to substantial losses within a shorter time frame. Traders can be prepared for market volatility and have risk management strategies in place.
Regulatory Uncertainty
The regulatory uncertainty surrounding the perpetual futures is still evolving. Traders and exchanges may face uncertainties and legal aspects related to perpetual futures. Hence staying informed about regulatory developments is a crucial step for market participants.
Impact on Financial Market
The introduction and widespread adoption of perpetual futures have profoundly impacted financial market players. Some of the key effects are:
Increased Trading Activity
Perpetual trading is contributing to the overall increase in trading activity for cryptocurrency markets. The perpetual nature of such contracts with presence of leverage contributes to the diverse array of positions and investments. Due to this many institutional investors are now showing interest in perpetual trading as well.
Market Maturity
The presence of perpetual futures adds a layer of sophistication for cryptocurrencies markets. This indicates towards a maturation of asset class. Institutional investors that were previously hesitant to be a part of perpetual trading are now showing much interest. And hence are more interested in trading activities.
Global Market Access
Perpetual trading allows traders to provide a seamless and standardized way to attain exposure to various assets. This global accessibility contributes to the integration of crypto market with traditional financial markets bolstering interconnectivity.
Conclusion
Perpetual futures have emerged as a dynamic and innovative solution in shaping the financial instrumental landscape. With their perpetual nature, leverage opportunities and efficient market dynamics such contracts offer a versatile tool to seek more exposure in multiple assets. Therefore, it is important for market participants to seek a thorough combination of associated risks and cater challenges. As the financial industry flourishes perpetual futures remain a key player in shaping the future of derivative markets.
About BITFLEX
BITFLEX is a cryptocurrency exchange platform that offers traders a secure, easy-to-use, and convenient way to buy, sell and trade cryptocurrencies. Our platform has been designed with investors of all levels in mind, whether they are just starting out or experienced traders. We offer various features and tools to help users make the best trading decisions possible, including advanced charting and analytics, real-time market data, and various customisable trading interfaces. At BITFLEX, we are dedicated to empowering our users and helping them reach their financial goals.
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The academic world remains divided about the use of generative AI in classrooms. In this article, Rafif Srour explores her students´ perspectives on the use of generative AI in their learning.
A year ago, ChatGPT 3.0 was released, marking a turning point in the academic landscape. This advanced AI technology, characterised by its ability to generate human-like content, brought a wave of change that rippled across classrooms1 worldwide. Academic institutions grappled with its implications, oscillating between outright bans and enthusiastic adoption.2 Professors, caught in this wave, faced a steep learning curve. Some embraced generative AI as a way to enhance their teaching methods, while others hesitated, only to soon be pleasantly surprised by its profound effect on student performance, notably among those learners who had previously struggled.
The impact3 of generative AI in academia has been a topic of discussion and analysis,4 with over 2000 articles published to date (number of articles published since 2023 on AI in education, according to Google Scholar5) that explore its influence on education,6 the evolving role of professors,7 and the complex debate surrounding its use in the classroom.8 However, in the middle of this chaotic discourse, the voice of a key group remains largely unheard: the students themselves. Their perspectives9 on AI’s role in their education are crucial yet often overlooked, leaving a gap in our understanding of this technological turbulence.
This fall, I started teaching my Probability and Statistics class with a complex blend of enthusiasm, hopeful anticipation, and a touch of anxiety. This mixed sentiment was hardly surprising, considering that I dedicated the past year to immersing myself in the world of generative AI. I had exhaustively utilised every resource at my disposal to not only update and enhance my teaching materials but also to ensure that student engagement remained at the heart of my pedagogical approach. My commitment even led me to conceptualise a novel class format, one where students would interact with a GPT-powered robot as a teaching assistant. Although this idea didn’t materialise, it deepened my willingness to explore uncharted territories in educational technology.
As the semester progressed, I carefully observed student responses to the AI-assisted activities I had implemented, leading me to several key conclusions:
It’s imperative to establish and communicate clear guidelines in every assignment, project, and activity about the permissible uses of AI tools. This clarity will ensure the proper and ethical use of AI in academic settings.
Freshmen and sophomores often lack the necessary skills to critically evaluate AI-generated content. Emphasis should be on grounding them in fundamental concepts with minimal AI assistance.
Professors are encouraged to use AI as a supplemental tool in teaching where it adds value, like in simple Python coding exercises. This approach not only aids learning but also frees up time for educators to foster critical thinking in the classroom.
Regardless of the AI’s prevalence, students continue to value and seek guidance and mentorship from their professors. This was evident in activities where students used AI under my guidance and consistently sought my validation for the concepts they learned.
Engaging students in discussions about the ethical use of AI tools is crucial. This should be approached not merely as a set of rules to follow but as a philosophical dialogue, encouraging students to reflect on the broader implications of their choices. This topic warrants further investigation.
Students hold diverse and valuable views on the use and non-use of AI in their educational journey. These perspectives deserve attention and recognition in shaping future educational strategies.
AI’s role in their education are crucial yet often overlooked, leaving a gap in our understanding of this technological turbulence.
Building on these observations, I engaged in an informal discussion with my students to gauge their thoughts on the use of AI, particularly generative AI, in the classroom and as an integral part of their curriculum. To complement these discussions, I also conducted a survey, receiving responses from 14 out of 41 students. The survey asked questions related to the usage and perception of AI in education, the efficiency of AI tools, human-AI interactions along with impact of AI on their cognitive processes. It is true that the sample size on which I am basing my analysis is small, but it still reflects some trends in students’ perceptions that are definitely worth considering. The synthesis of their opinions is as follows:
Graph 1. Student response to the frequency of using AI tools and its effectiveness in aiding their learning process (scale of 1 to 5, where 1 indicates “Never”/”Not Effective” and 5 indicates “All the Time and “Highly effective”).
Students acknowledge that AI tools have made their academic work more efficient (graph 1), but they also expressed their concerns about their understanding of the processes involved, highlighting a gap between using AI and comprehending its working.
While students find AI effective in their learning processes (71.43%), there is an underlying anxiety about the rapid evolution of AI and its implications for how useful their current learning is.
There is a consistent preference for human instruction, stressing the irreplaceable value of personal connection and tailored teaching that AI cannot replicate.
A unanimous resistance to using AI as a replacement for human teaching and a strong desire to retain human educators’ unique capabilities.
A year has passed since the release of ChatGPT 3.0, and my conviction has only strengthened that AI is the transformative force academia requires. As the landscape becomes more defined, it’s increasingly evident that AI should not be viewed as an end, but rather as a means that encourages both students and professors to deeply consider the essence of learning and teaching. This journey of reflection is not solely about finding answers but about the process of discovery. As a student eloquently inferred, “When we ask a question in class, what matters to us is not just the answer itself, but understanding the process you, as a professor, go through to arrive at that answer. It’s about that moment of clarity when a concept finally clicks.” This sentiment underscores the value of the educational experience, where the human element plays a pivotal role. Another student’s perspective reinforces this idea: “I don’t believe AI tools can replace human instructors. AI can provide information and assist in learning, but it lacks the personal connection and understanding that a human instructor offers. AI cannot understand student emotions or adapt to individual learning styles in the way a human can. The human element in teaching is irreplaceable.”
AI should not be viewed as an end, but rather as a means that encourages both students and professors to deeply consider the essence of learning and teaching.
These reflections solidify the consensus that, while AI can enhance the learning environment, the core of education remains deeply human. Both professors and students agree (at least for the moment) that technology, no matter its advancements, serves best as a complement to the irreplaceable human connection and insight at the heart of education.
This article is dedicated to my second-year Data and Business Analytics students. Your invaluable contributions, born out of thoughtful classroom discussions and your patient responses to my numerous surveys, have been the cornerstone of this article. Your engagement and insights have not only enriched this piece but have also deepened my understanding and appreciation of our shared learning journey. For this, I am endlessly grateful.
Rafif Srour, an esteemed international academic, brings extensive expertise in teaching, analytical research, and data analysis. A lifelong learner and advocate for women in STEM, Srour has earned multiple Best Professor awards. Thriving in multicultural settings across Lebanon, the USA, and Spain, she actively promotes coaching and mentoring for academic improvement. Srour, a member of IE University’s Learning Innovation Hub, gained recognition in 2021 as one of the top 183 Leading Data Academics by CDO magazine and among 55 leading women in technology in Spain. Passionate about leveraging technology in higher education, Srour, with a background in Agricultural Engineering and a Ph.D. in Environmental Soil Chemistry, currently serves as the Executive Vice Dean of the Sci-Tech School, following roles as Academic Director and interim Dean.
Design is like a mute salesman in the world of trade. Design moves beyond aesthetics to impact consumer behavior and influence sales. Every visual aspect of a package or a site serves the purpose of selling a product. Let’s walk through how design is an effective force that turns interest into action.
The Visual Appeal
Art communicates through design, which functions as a visual language for target people within society. This is not only about aesthetics but about arresting the attention right away and creating the first impression. In the huge digital space, every scroll shows numerous possibilities, and aesthetic appeal determines everything. For instance, free mockups like LS Graphics artfully compiled ones are very effective in this sphere. These act as previews of the look and feel of a particular brand image. Well-developed images become magnets, attracting possible consumers toward an inviting encounter. Because a first impression lasts for 0.1 seconds, a visually impressive design is not a doorway, but an invitation to investigate, capturing the eye and converting curiosity into desire.
Building Trust and Credibility
The value of trust is measured in commerce, while the authenticity of design serves as its guarantee. Think of a nice website or well-organized packaging—these are not only aesthetic considerations, but also elements of building trust. A polished and professional design shows dedication to quality and attention to detail which the potential buyer notices when encountering it. In particular, a consistent design language improves the ability to recognize the brand through multiple platforms and media. The touchpoints are the familiar font; the harmonious color palette; the properly aligned imagery. Hence in a marketplace characterized by wary and meticulous consumers, powerful visual branding is a symbol of credibility. It turns a simple browsing session into a transaction, thus converting a new customer into a repeat one.
User Experience (UX)
User experience determines a journey from a discovery process to conversion in the digital world, where kings and critics become one person. Design is more than simply pointing out that direction for a customer in a webpage or mobile application and telling a story. Positive UX results from how easy it is for the user to navigate through the system, how clear the information is, and how enjoyable the experience is as a whole. This process makes use of free mockups which act like prototypes These help designers pre-empt users’ expectations and design intuitive user interfaces for effortless interface navigation. A positive UX has a long-term effect on transactions. Happy customers turn into brand ambassadors who spread the word around utilizing word of mouth. In a landscape where digital communications predominate, every step in the consumer’s path should be a pleasant tale that results in instant sales as well as future renown and profitability for the company.1
Creating Emotional Connections
Good design can communicate feelings and build long-term relationships. Desire results from well-designed products and an emotional bond developed using design may become crucial for the decision to buy in. The emotional power associated with brands or products results from colors, textual information, and images. Design tells more than the story that goes above and beyond features or specifications that connect to consumers’ desires or feelings.
Conclusion
In a competitive world, with plenty of choice, design becomes a powerful new tool for marketing strategies. Design is involved in all steps from the consumers’ attraction right through to the final purchase. Subsection heading: Subsection Heading Businesses can use tools such as free mockups to polish their designs until all their visual elements are convincing players on the competent field. According to a popular saying, “A picture is worth a thousand words,” a good sales design is worth a thousand sales.
Last-mile delivery (also known as final mile delivery) refers to the movement of goods from a transportation hub to their final destination, which is often at the customer’s doorstep. It’s the last step for deliveries, and it’s important to ensure businesses do this part right because this can be the difference between a delivery being made or not. There is evidence that suggests last minute delivery costs around 28% of the total delivery cost, so it’s a significant investment.
The industry is also changing the way they view last mile delivery, with many businesses up and down the country focusing on it as differentiation in their business. With more and more consumers turning to ecommerce for all their purchases, the need for last mile delivery services will continue to grow. According to the WorldEconomic Forum, the number of delivery vehicles in the delivery sector will need to increase by 36% by 2030 to meet the demand. Therefore, it’s vital that the environmental impacts are minimised so the environment doesn’t suffer long term.
Keep on reading to find out some of the environmental impacts of last mile delivery, and how they can be minimised.
The environmental impacts of last mile delivery
Last mile delivery is often associated with vehicle emissions and environmental damage. One of the main factors for this is the use of fossil fuel powered vehicles including trucks, vans, and cars. All these vehicles emit carbon dioxide and other toxic elements that over time can have a negative impact on human health and the Earth’s atmosphere. However, this can be said for most forms of travel.
But what makeslast mile deliverydifferent? The delivery to consumers is often associated with populated urban areas full of houses, and business hubs. Drivers delivering parcels will often be backtracking on themselves quite often, taking the longer route to deliver parcels on time. This leads to more fuel and emissions being offset, as well as increased wear and tear on vehicles, leading to higher maintenance costs and lower fuel efficiency. These busy urban areas may lead to high levels of traffic congestion.
How can they be minimised?
Use electric vehicles
One way to minimise the environmental impact of last mile delivery is to focus on using more electric vehicles for your fleet. Using electric vehicles will lead to a significant reduction in emissions and pollution being released into the environment, which will have a positive impact on air pollution. However, you need to ensure that the vehicles used have the capacity to complete the deliveries or there are enough charging stations in the area where the deliveries will be made. According to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation, electric delivery vehicles emit 40% fewer greenhouse emissions.
Plan your delivery route beforehand
Another way to reduce the environmental impacts of last mile delivery is through planning your delivery beforehand. This can be achieved by looking at the various destination points on the route, and seeing if a route can be altered to reduce the distance travelled. This will also cut the time it will take to make the delivery. .
If you are awaiting orders to come through, waiting until they have all come in before setting out on a delivery route can also lead to one trip, over two.
Use carbon offsets
Carbon offsetting can neutralise the environmental footprint of a business. Companies can do this by tracking their use of fuel, energy and storage leading to an approximation of their carbon footprint. Then, businesses can take action so they can offset their own carbon footprint.
For example, some businesses may plant trees, or use solar or wind energy.
The use of click and collect
Promoting the use of click and collect services can lead to a reduction in the number of deliveries needed to consumers’ doorsteps. Instead, parcels can be kept at the post office or another designated location. As well as reducing the number of journeys needed to more doorsteps for delivery drivers, the use of click and collect leads to a reduction in journeys overall. Customers who need to collect their goods may decide to pick up their parcels on the way to work, or during the school run.
Overall, we hope this article has been useful for you to understand how the environmental impacts of last mile delivery can be minimised. Perhaps you run your own business that conducts last mile deliveries, or you can take these tips on board to help reduce your own carbon footprint.
The EUR/USD currency pair serves as a barometer for the dynamic relationship between the two largest economies, Europe and the United States. The trading of the EUR/USD currency pair plays a vital role in the global economy, shaping stability, international trade, investment decisions, financial stability, and macroeconomic indicators. A comprehensive understanding of these impacts is essential for investors and economists to make informed decisions and manage risks in the dynamic global financial markets.
Alterations in the EUR/USD exchange rate directly affect the cost of goods and services to consumers, influencing import and export dynamics. A rise in the euro against the dollar can stimulate economic growth in the United States by reducing imports and increasing exports. Conversely, a decline in the euro can have the opposite effect.
The implications of trading in the EUR/USD pair extend to international investments, especially for large institutional investors. They utilize this currency pair in the foreign exchange market to manage risks and capitalize on exchange rate fluctuations. Techniques such as trading currency contracts, including forward contracts and currency futures, are employed to profit from future changes in exchange rates and mitigate potential losses.
Furthermore, active transactions in the foreign exchange market can impact financial stability, placing stress on financial institutions with substantial foreign currency positions. This may lead to financial losses and, in extreme cases, bankruptcy for banks and other financial entities.
It’s crucial to recognize that any changes in currency markets, not limited to specific pairs, influence macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and interest rates. For instance, a rise in the euro can affect inflation in the United States by making goods and services more affordable for consumers. Conversely, a falling dollar may lead to increased inflation in Europe.
In terms of recent developments, certain key events in Europe and the United States can influence the exchange rate of the Euro-Dollar pair. These include changes in crude oil reserves in the United States and decisions by the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank on interest rates. Anticipation of these events suggests a potential upcoming growth in the exchange rate, as investors and traders have thoroughly assessed risks and studied relevant reports.
Moreover, the current price hovers around a critical support level of 1.0750, historically acting as both support and resistance. At the moment, it is imperative for significant buyers to safeguard this level and leverage it for sustained growth. The primary objective of such growth is to breach and update the November 29, 2023, maximum of 1.1000.
In today’s fast-paced business world, mortgage professionals face pressure to streamline processes, effectively manage client relationships, and enhance overall productivity. This is where a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) system can truly make a difference. By implementing the CRM solution, mortgage companies have the opportunity to transform their operations and drive themselves toward success. In this post, we will delve into the factors to consider when choosing a CRM for achieving mortgage success.
1. Recognizing the Significance of CRM in the Mortgage Industry
The mortgage industry thrives on establishing connections with clients and partners while managing data and transactions. Free mortgage software serves as a foundation for these endeavors by providing a hub for tracking client information, documenting interactions, organizing tasks, and monitoring sales pipelines.
2. Key Features for a CRM Tailored to Mortgages
To ensure that you select the suitable CRM solution for your mortgage business, it is vital to be on the lookout for these essential features:
Lead Management: Make sure the CRM you choose has features like lead scoring, automated follow-ups, email campaign integration, and lead assignment functionalities.
Contact Management: Simplify the management of your client network by using a contact management system. Look for options that allow you to segment contacts based on criteria such as loan types or geographic locations.
Loan Pipeline Tracking: It’s crucial to have the ability to monitor loan pipelines in order to track progress and optimize efficiency. Look for a CRM that offers dashboards or visual timelines providing real-time insights into loan statuses and potential bottlenecks.
Collaboration Tools: To enhance productivity and teamwork within your organization or between different departments/teams, consider CRM solutions with collaboration tools like shared calendars, document-sharing capabilities, and activity feeds that enable seamless interactions among colleagues.
Mobile Compatibility: As the need to work on the go increases, it’s essential to have a mobile CRM. Ensure the chosen CRM provides a user-friendly app with features like real-time notifications and seamless data synchronization.
3. Integration Capabilities
An effective CRM should seamlessly integrate with your existing technology stack enhancing efficiency and eliminating data silos.
When considering CRM options, it’s important to think about how they integrate with tools like email clients, marketing automation software, document management systems, and other applications that are essential for your day-to-day operations. Integration ensures a flow of data between systems, which ultimately leads to decision-making based on comprehensive information.
4. Customization Options
Every mortgage business has its requirements and workflows. It’s crucial to choose a CRM that allows for customization to meet your needs. Look for a system that lets you adapt workflows according to industry regulations or create customized fields that align with your data-capturing requirements.
5. Data Security and Compliance
Mortgage companies handle amounts of client information on a regular basis. That’s why it’s absolutely paramount to select a CRM solution that prioritizes data security and complies with regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Features like encrypted cloud storage, multi-factor authentication, and role-based access controls should be considered when ensuring the safety of client data.
6. User Interface and Ease of Use
To ensure user adoption within your team, choose a CRM system known for its user interface (UI) design. A user-friendly platform reduces the need for training while allowing users to navigate through features effortlessly. Consider considering platforms that offer trial versions or free trials so you can personally evaluate their usability.
Conclusion
Businesses can streamline their operations by choosing a CRM system specifically designed for mortgage success. Cultivate meaningful relationships with customers effectively. The ideal system should have features like lead management capabilities, options for segmenting contacts, user-friendly dashboards, collaboration tools, mobile compatibility, smooth integration capabilities, customization options, and robust data security measures.
Furthermore, an attractive user interface and ease of use are crucial for organizational adoption. Make a decision when selecting your CRM solution to unlock your business’s potential and gain an advantage in the mortgage industry. Allow technology to pave the way for productivity, exceptional customer service, and increased profitability.
Recently, Dr Steinbock was interviewed on the rise of the BRICS and the multipolar world by Marcello Iannarelli, editor in chief of World Geostrategic Insights (WGI). The lengthy interview was released by WGI on Dec. 8, 2023: https://www.wgi.world/brics-could-a-more-inclusive-and-equitable-multipolar-world-take-shape-an-interview-with-dan-steinbock/ In the interview, Dr Steinbock also explains the parallels and differences between the economic BRICs and the BRICS countries, as well as the implications of the initial BRIC concept by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs and his own views on the economic rise of the Global South.
Here a few samples:
Is global governance really still primarily in the hands of the Western highly industrialized and developed countries?
A1 – Yes, it is. These countries still dominate the global economy, international relations, and military might. They control global finance and technology. And they enjoy high incomes. But it is their past that accounts for their present power. The future no longer belongs to them exclusively. The future will have to be shared.
In 2000, the economies of the major advanced nations of the West, as reflected by the G7, were still almost ten times bigger than the BRICs. However, the 2008 global crisis sped up their relative erosion. Today, their lead has shrunk to about a third. By the early 2030s, it will decrease to a tenth. And by the mid-2030 or so, the aggregate economic power of the BRICS will exceed that of the G7 – assuming the international status quo will remain relatively peaceful, which is no longer assured.
Neither the BRICS nor the large emerging economies overall want to “subvert” the world order. Rather, they seek to foster one, vis-à-vis economic, political and defense diversification. Current global arrangements must not reflect just the interests of the West that represents about a tenth of the world population. They must also reflect the aspirations of the multipolar world in which global growth prospects are driven by the large emerging economies. Excluding one set of countries at the expense of the other is a dead-end.
Unwarranted trade wars and geopolitics to contain China undermine development and the rise of the Global South overall, as evidenced by the cold realities of de-globalization, the rise of far-right and xenophobia, series of new wars, and the soaring numbers of the globally displaced. Hence, the need for more humane BRICS futures.
Malaysia: Anwar Ibrahim’s First Year in Power
Recently, Dr Steinbock was also interviewed by the Singapore-based Massita Ahmad, from Bernama, the Malaysian National News Agency. The interview examined the Anwar Ibrahim administration’s first year in power. It was published by Bernama as “Anwar Ibrahim’s administration offers vital lessons to the West, Global South,” on December 6, 2023.
Here just a few samples:
In the coming quarters, economic recovery is likely to be gradual. This has less to do with Malaysia than with the impact of the weakening global demand and restrictive monetary conditions. Both factors have adverse implications worldwide; particularly in relatively open, trading commodity exporters, including Malaysia. In such conditions, Malaysia’s expected real GDP growth of about 3.9% in 2023 is a decent response in the dire international environment.
Malaysia has also a lot of tacit development experience that could be vital in the coming years. Today, emerging economies in the Global South drive global growth, yet global governance remains in the hands of the West. That’s untenable. Malaysian efforts of inclusive growth offer important lessons to the West and the rest of the Global South alike.
“For over 55 years, the Israeli military occupation has prevented the realisation of the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people, violating each component of that right and wilfully pursuing the ‘de-Palestinianisation’ of the occupied territory,”Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, states in her report to the UN General Assembly.
Settler colonialism isperpetuated in the 21st century as we speak. It stresses the “logic of elimination”, including the genocidal elimination of the indigenous people, their expulsion from the land, and a number of strategies to destructure and destroy the autochthonous society. It is a long-term territorial conquest that substitutes the indigenous population with settlers.
‘Genocide’ in Gaza is ‘the logic of an apartheid settler colonial state and it has no place in the civilized world,’ says Richard Boyd Barrett, Irish People Before Profit–Solidarity politician.
Israel’s behaviour in Gaza and the West Bank reveals a settler-colony unwilling to engage with the indigenous people of these regions, except through regular forcible removal of Palestinians and appropriation of their lands. What may be considered ethnic cleansing has been a tool for deliberately operating demographic change in the run-up to Israel’s founding in 1948, continuing up to the present-day. Since then, the genocidal statements, slogans of political leaders, and movements that promote the killing of Palestinian children have becomecrosshairs of apartheid in order to prevent new generations from settling and claiming back their identity.
“The Occupied Palestinian Territory lies above sizable reservoirs of oil and natural gas wealth, in Area C of the occupied West Bank and the Mediterranean coast off the Gaza Strip. However, occupation continues to prevent Palestinians from developing their energy fields so as to exploit and benefit from such assets,” said the study conducted by UNCTAD in 2019.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), significant reservoirs of oil and natural gas have been found off the Gaza Strip and elsewhere under the occupied West Bank. In 2000, two wells drilled by British Gas off the coast of Gaza revealed gas reserves estimated at 1.4 trillion cubic feet. Sixty percent of those reserves belong to Palestinians. Today, natural gas reserves off the coast of Gaza have attracted the attention of British Petroleum and Chevron.
The opportunity presents itself for a final solution— expelling the Palestinian people into the Sinai desert to clear the way for exploiting the natural resources. The Abraham Accords provide a cover for the Arab states—including Qatar, which hosts the biggest US base—to deceive their own populations.
The concept of historical trauma explains the gap between both communities and and the mutual denial that is wider than ever. Each side absorbed on its own trauma is unable to recognize the other’s party’s historical trauma, which may be the main motivator promoting the circle for the history repeating itself pattern.
“Massive traumas like these affect people and societies in multidimensional ways,” said Yael Danieli, PhD, cofounder and director of the Group Project for Holocaust Survivors and their Children in New York
Following Hamas’ Oct. 7th massacre of 1,000 Israeli civilians and kidnapping of 220 Israelis, Israel swiftly launched a relentless campaign of hatred, colossal destruction, and genocide against Palestinian citizens. Over a month into the conflict, Israel has slaughtered more than 17,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, where approximately 70% are women and children and nearly all are civilians. The precise death toll remains unknown as bodies lay under the rubble of bombed homes, hospitals, schools, and marketplaces.
On October 29th Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked‘Amalek’ Biblical rhetoric to announce genocidal intentions: “slay both man and woman, infant and suckling.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog declared: “It is an entire nation out there that is responsible.” Using dehumanizing language reminiscent of historical genocidal regimes, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant announced: “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.” Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari explained, “The emphasis is on damage and not accuracy.” The New York Times reported“Israeli leaders believed mass civilian casualties were an acceptable price,” and officials cited “the dropping of the two atomic warheads in Hiroshima and Nagasaki” as a model.
Although Israeli-biased propaganda – Hasbara is a strategy of propaganda used by Israel that “seeks to explain actions, whether or not they are justified” – tries to deflect blame by accusing Hamas of using civilians as “human shields,” as “Hamas operations HQs [are] situated in a large network of tunnels below the main hospitals in Gaza”, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and United Nations investigators have time and again found no evidence for the accusation. These groups add that it’s illegal to kill human shields, and that bombing hospitals or any health units breaks international humanitarian law that should be respected in every war.
Neo-colonialism is the cruellest form of the continuation of colonial policies under the guise of achieving freedom and needs to find a stimulus to justify atrocities publicly. Settler colonialism needs public noise to create confusion and legitimize apartheid, crimes, destruction, and the settler subsequent expansion, which otherwise wouldn’t be easily digested by public opinion.
By the mid-1700s, the promoters of the Enlightenment in Scotland, England, and France were fine-tuning “four stages” theories to classify human societies according to imagined “stages of civilization.” Unsurprisingly, Enlightenment writers placed themselves at the “apex” defined as the European commercial society, with agriculturalists, then pastoralists, and lastly hunter-gatherers falling below them.
During the old western colonial times, people inhabiting lands sought for colonization were often describing these as “wasting” land, having “backward” food production practices, and being in need of “civilization”—all according to western definitions.
Beginning in the late 19th century, Zionists who initiated the nationalist project for Israel, a land that they considered their ancestral home, gave little thought to the Palestinians. Zionists were deeply informed by scornful views of small-scale farming and sheep-herding societies. British administrators during the Mandate period (1920-1948) developed a similarly dim view on much of Arab agriculture.
The Zionist project to “make the desert bloom” was based, in part, on damaging misunderstandings of Arab dryland wheat and baʿlī farming systems. Baʿlī planting, tillage, and plant protection methods, as demonstrated by Palestinian geographer Omar Tesdell, facilitate growing crops without irrigation,and have much to teach farmers in increasingly drought-prone regions.
“From Hawaiʻi to Palestine—occupation is a crime. A lāhui [Nation, race, tribe, people, or nationality] that stands for decolonization and de-occupation should also stand behind freedom for Palestine,” says Uahikea Maile, Assistant Professor of Indigenous Politics in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.
Historical trauma
Psychological researchers and clinicians examine what the long-term impact of these and other traumatic events can have—not just on those who survive these tragedies, but on their children and grandchildren as well. Their varied efforts look at intergenerational effects of events as diverse as the Holocaust, the Khmer Rouge killings in Cambodia, the Rwandan genocide, the cultural displacement of American Indians, and the enslavement of African Americans, as well as of large-scale natural disasters like hurricanes and earthquakes. Not only are the transgenerational effects psychological, but also familial, social, cultural, neurobiological, and possibly even genetic, the researchers say.
One way to understand the present events between Israelis and Palestinians is to see it through the historical trauma’s perspective. For both sides, some of the recent events have evoked memories of each community worst national suffering. For Israelis and Palestinians, this conflict has surfaced fears, that history could possibly repeat itself.
For many Israelis, the 9/11 Hamas attack evoked the most chilling memory of all: the Holocaust. Part of Israel’s creation story is the idea that Jews would no longer find themselves defenceless, that a modern state and a strong military would act as a guarantee against further exterminations.
Palestinians have their own trauma, beginning with the Nakba—the catastrophe that coincided with Israel’s founding in 1948. Approximately 700,000 Palestinians were displaced from their homes and became refugees, many forcibly displaced by the nascent Israeli army. Most Palestinians in Gaza today are the descendants of those refugees. The Nakba is not the exclusive trauma of the 1948 refugees and their descendants. Like the Holocaust for Jews, it is the emotional inheritance of all Palestinians.
For years, Israel admitted that the Nakba never took place. Israelis accused the Palestinians of creating this fiction in order to delegitimize Israel. Only recently hasIsrael begun to acknowledge the incontrovertible facts of the Nakba, and the latest event will surely reaffirm these facts.
Among some Palestinians, there is also a trend to deny the historicity of the Holocaust, to claim that it never happened. For those who acknowledge the horrific crimes of the Nazis, many feel that the creation of Israel was an attempt to redress those crimes at their expense. Israelis largely view these claims as a polemical construct designed to delegitimize Israel and a manifestation of Palestinian antisemitism. So that’s where Israelis and Palestinians are as this conflict enters another week—triggered by their own traumas and reluctant to recognize the other side’s.
The renowned Austrian Jewish author and psychiatrist Professor Viktor Frankl, who was a Holocaust survivor, and founded the revolutionary theory in psychiatry named Logotherapy, always promoted forgiveness as the way to set yourself free from previous living traumas, as it will break the circle of hatred and violence:
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way” Viktor Frankl
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.
It’s putting it mildly to say that Black women are underrepresented in the field of technology. A new interactive map uses historical data to help raise awareness among Black women that anything really is possible and that, specifically, there is space for them in the technology industries.
Can you share the main objectives of the collaboration between GTA Black Women in Tech and UN Women, and explain how the interactive historical map project fits into those objectives?
At GTA Black Women in Tech, we wanted to find a way to continue raising awareness about all the amazing Black women throughout history who have made an incredible impact on the technology field. We’ve published three different books on this topic, but wanted to do something a bit different this year. We developed an interactive, visual map to help Black women and girls learn about the inspiring individuals who came before them. The partnership with UN Women helped make this dream a reality, as they supported with the development and sharing of the interactive historical map. UN Women does so much work on a global stage to continue the fight for gender equality, and we were thrilled that they chose to partner with us on this project.
What motivated you to create the world’s first interactive historical map chronicling the stories and impact of Black women in the tech industry, and why is this initiative so important?
The partnership with UN Women helped make this dream a reality, as they supported with the development and sharing of the interactive historical map.
This interactive historical map is incredibly important, because it increases the accessibility of stories about influential Black women, ensuring that their stories are not forgotten. Furthermore, we provide role models that young Black women can relate to. This collaboration with UN Women ensures that these stories reach diverse audiences worldwide, promoting awareness and understanding of the experiences of Black women who have been silenced throughout history. Together, we celebrate and amplify their voices, contributing to the ongoing pursuit of equality, inclusion, and justice for all women around the globe.
The project focuses on untold stories and profound impact. Could you highlight one or two stories or individuals from the map that you find particularly inspiring and representative of the contributions of Black women in tech?
I love the legend of Queen Moremi, who lived in the 12th century in the Kingdom of Ife, which is now Nigeria. She is a legendary person in African history and folklore. Alongside her husband, King Oranmiyan, she ruled the realm as a strong and important queen. Queen Moremi is renowned for her bravery and slyness, which helped preserve her people from a grave threat, despite her regal status.
I also loved discovering the story of Shaka, the founder of the Zulu nation, who played a significant role in South African history in the late 17th and early 18th centuries. His mother, Queen Nandi, was a devoted Zulu devotee who was renowned for her leadership and intelligence. Her union with King Senzangakhona, who was born into the Elangeni tribe, signalled a political partnership. Queen Nandi instilled in King Shaka the principles of bravery and deference. As a peacemaker and mediator, she was instrumental in the establishment of the Zulu country. The enduring legacy of Queen Nandi serves as a testament to the noteworthy influence that women have had on South Africa’s history.
How do you see this interactive historical map contributing to greater diversity in the tech industry and addressing issues related to social, economic, and gender justice on a global scale?
At the moment, the lack of Black women in the tech industry means that there are currently fewer Black women in leadership positions who are making hiring decisions. In fact, less than 0.7 per cent of Black women currently work in tech in the UK. This makes it difficult for cultural change to take place on a large scale, as Black women do not currently have many allies in the workplace who understand the unique challenges we face.
The only way that we can create change is by continuing to increase visibility and make our voices heard. In addition to GTA Black Women in Tech’s new book, The Voices in the Shadow, Volume 3, the interactive historical map will become an important tool for young women and girls who are exploring careers in this industry. Both the book and the historical map will be available in schools for students. When Black girls begin to see others who look like them in technology roles, whether on the historical map, through our books, or in real life, it will become clear that anything is truly possible; there are places for them in the industry to achieve anything they set their minds to. The historical map is an important part of creating the visibility for this cultural change to take place.
Can you describe the technology and design aspects of the map and how it will engage the public and help them explore the history and impact of Black women in tech?
By fostering a supportive ecosystem, we aim to break down barriers and ensure lasting positive change in the tech industry and beyond.
We tried to make the map as visually engaging and accessible as possible. Our approach for the map combines the written word, visual arts, and multimedia technology to create an immersive experience that captivates readers and viewers alike. We wanted the map to be a convenient and informative way for people from all walks of life to learn more about the profound impact that Black women have had. You can simply traverse the globe by hovering over the map and clicking on an icon in a specific continent to expand your perspective.
Collaboration with UN Women is a significant achievement. In what ways do you envision this partnership catalysing positive change in the tech industry and beyond?
We’re incredibly privileged to be working with UN Women on this project. This organisation has engaged in pivotal work to help women and girls reach their full potential in life, partnering with global organisations on key issues that transcend borders. This partnership has helped us reach more Black women who are looking for opportunities, as well as employers who are looking for talent. Moving forward, we will be working with UN Women to educate through projects such as this one and create opportunities for collaboration, mentorship, and empowerment. By fostering a supportive ecosystem, we aim to break down barriers and ensure lasting positive change in the tech industry and beyond.
What are your hopes and expectations for the long-term impact of this initiative, and how do you plan to ensure its sustainability and continued relevance?
The interactive map is a live project and we will continue to add to it over time to ensure that a wide range of Black women’s experiences are incorporated from around the globe. In the meantime, we remain dedicated to building bridges of opportunity for Black women and girls, hosting events and building our network of partners and employers to help connect talented Black women with companies that are looking for their unique expertise. Our long-term goal is to see increased representation of Black women in the tech industry and related fields. To ensure sustainability, we plan to collaborate with educational institutions, community organisations, and industry partners, creating a robust network that supports ongoing initiatives, growth programmes, and educational resources.
Finally, what advice would you give to organisations and individuals who want to initiate similar projects or collaborate to promote diversity and inclusion in the tech industry, based on your experiences with this historic endeavour?
Don’t take “No” for an answer! The only way for us to truly create change is by continuing to speak about the challenges that people of colour have faced as they enter the tech industry. Diverse perspectives and voices will always matter, particularly in an industry that is paving the way forward and creating solutions to tomorrow’s challenges. Lack of diversity is a huge problem, because that leads to lack of innovation. Problems can be solved more quickly and creatively when the teams doing the thinking have diverse world views to share. Embrace collaboration and seek partnerships with organisations that share similar values. By amplifying underrepresented voices and fostering inclusive practices, we can collectively contribute to a more diverse, equitable, and innovative tech industry.
Flavilla Fongangis amulti-award-winningserial entrepreneur, and an international multilingual keynote speaker. Her impressive repertoire includes being the founder of marketing agency 3 Colours Rule and co-founder of the not-for-profit organisation Global Tech Advocates – Black Women in Tech and the networking platform Black Rise.
Economic background is fundamental to any investor – short or long term focused. Over the past few years the importance of geopolitical trends has increased as well. For this reason we start our report by providing our outlook on the economic and geopolitical situation.
Will the landing be soft?
The economic situation over the past few years has been very volatile. An already mature economic cycle has been interrupted by the COVID pandemic and everything that followed: massive stimulus, inflation and resulting interest rate hikes. Understandably there were fears that this monetary tightening could lead to recession and those fears impacted markets significantly. However, so far the economic slowdown has been limited and some indicators suggest that a through of a slowdown is already behind us.
This is true for indicators of business activity but more than anything consumer demand has been resilient. Yes, real sales over the past two years were more or less flat but this is still above long-term trend as 2021 numbers were inflated by heavy stimulus. While measures of consumer confidence remain subdued and there are opinions that extra savings from the stimulus period have now been exhausted, we are yet to see a reflection of this in hard data. Make no mistake, we are still right after the most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 4 decades so the risks are there but so far the US economy has been surprisingly resilient and if the Fed can lower rates substantially next year, this could save the US from a more serious slowdown.
Can Europe escape recession?
While the US is surprising to the upside, Europe is disappointing. Business activities like the PMIs show that the situation in Europe is already the most difficult among the key economic regions. We saw an especially deep decline in manufacturing, as a result of the following factors:
post-COVID inventory buildup
Much higher energy prices
Progressing deglobalization
Ambitious EU climate policies
While globally manufacturing companies seem to be slowly chopping through the inventories, in Europe the burden of other factors could be too heavy. There have been hopes that consumers will lift the economy through the services sector but the contrary seems to be taking place. One must remember that the current ECB deposit rate is 4% while it was negative for the past few years and close to zero for more than a decade. As a result it’s hard to be positive on consumer demand going into 2024. While the US economy seems to be holding up, Europe might be poised for some kind of a recession and its severity will be decided by the global environment.
(pmi)
Is inflation a story of the past?
The year 2021 brought the inflation scare that resulted in the most impressive monetary tightening in the Western World in decades and related recession fears. We have already stated that the US has survived and could escape recession while Europe is in much weaker shape. However, the exact magnitude of economic slowdown we are through will depend on the length of restrictive policies maintained by main central banks and this will depend on inflation.
Let’s start with the good news – inflation is poised to decline both in the US and Europe next year unless some kind of external shock occurs. In the US, the main driver of lower inflation will be shelter. Real estate prices and rents are at all time highs after steep increases. However, they barely grow now and CPI shelter inflation reacts to real estate prices with significant (1-year plus) delays. Therefore we are nearly guaranteed lower shelter inflation next year and for overall inflation to re-accelerate we would need other sources. However, with subdued fuel prices and relatively contained services inflation this is not likely at the moment. In Europe, weak consumer demand and fading effects of the energy crisis (energy prices are higher than prior to the shock but they have greatly retraced from the highs) should cool CPI inflation as well.
The bad news is that some of the inflation could be structural (that is – long term). This stems from de-globalisation and changes in labor markets where aging societies and post-COVID changes may pressure wage growth a bit more. Those factors will not outweigh short term trends pointed at above but may mean that a return to super low interest rates might not be possible (except for crisis situations).
Geopolitics – will it get worse?
We live in a World where geopolitical tensions have become a part of the picture that an investor must pay attention to. In 2022 we had aggression towards Ukraine, in 2023 the Middle East crisis but those seem to be just proxies to the biggest fight for global dominance between the US and China.
It looks like both countries are on the collision course regardless of what the leaders are saying: the US is trying to contain China and prevent it from developing high-end technologies, especially those that could be used in the military. China, conversely, tries to maintain free trade for as long as it profits from it to build its position. It’s pretty clear the interests are conflicting and while an extreme turn of events (like Taiwan invasion) is unlikely to happen next year, we are bound to see more friction on the geopolitical scene.
Chart: Activity in the Chinese economy soared right after the re-opening, only to falter soon after
Uncertainties around China are not limited to geopolitics. Economic situation is far worse than expected. When Beijing suddenly withdrew COVID restrictions at the end of 2022 expectations were really high. But after a short-live rebound the economy stagnated and was unable to gain momentum despite interest rate cuts and stimulation efforts (although of limited scale). It could be that China is paying the price for stimulating the economy via the residential market for decades and now that this source of growth is gone a slowdown might be unavoidable.
EURUSD
Examining EURUSD from a technical standpoint, after the price managed to climb back above parity, it maintained an upward trajectory until July 2023. However, this pullback should be interpreted as a correction within a larger downward trend. If the principles of technical analysis hold true, the declines experienced in late 2021 and early 2022 could reinitiate. Provided the price continues to trade below the resistance level at 1.1280, further sell-off and a continuation of the long-term downtrend is the most likely scenario. The downtrend could potentially accelerate if the price descends below the 1.04, which would be viewed as a bearish signal in the classical sense of technical analysis – signifying a break below the neckline of a broad head and shoulders formation.
EURUSD traded in a relatively tight range in 2023 after recovering above parity in late 2022. This lack of direction has been caused by the two major forces pulling the pair in opposite directions: relatively weaker EMU economy on one hand and upbeat market sentiment on the other. A strong autumn for the pair was a reflection of declining expectations for the Fed rates in 2024.
Yes, the Fed has room to cut next year but equally such cuts might be necessary in the eurozone. One could argue that the economic situation in Europe might pressure the ECB sooner. Even now looking at bond yield spreads remain relatively constant (markets keep pricing in sooner cuts on both sides of the Atlantic) thus not supporting the EURUSD pair. If the US remains resilient or if Europe slides into recession, those spreads might actually turn even worse for the euro. From the market sentiment point of view things look good right now but investors need to remember that any deterioration in sentiment is usually negative for the euro.
Bond spreads do not provide a strong case behind further EURUSD gains.
The figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Wall Street indices recovered a bulk of losses recorded in the previous year during 2023. Gains came in spite of Fed hiking rates to the highest level since March 2001. While the US central bank does not want to admit it yet, the rate hike cycle looks to be over and the market is increasingly focused on potential interest rate cuts. The question seems to be not whether the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but when will it cut rates. General understanding is that rate cuts are good for stock markets and the economy, and rate hikes are bad. However, is the relationship between stock market and interest rates so crystal clear?
Analysis of three previous Fed rate cut cycles leads us to an interesting conclusion – rate moves alone do not drive stock markets and need to be put into broader context. Rate cuts that began cycles in 2001 and 2007 failed to lift market sentiment over the coming months, with broad US stock market indices moving lower. On the other hand, a rate cut that began a cycle in 2019 was followed by stock market gains in the following months. What looks to be key to stock market performance after rate cuts is what was the reason behind them. Cuts delivered in 2001 and 2007 were a crisis response, while a rate cut delivered in 2019 was a response to inflation weakness. Therefore, it will be more macro than the Fed that should be eventually crucial for the stock market as it will decide the path for earnings.
Chart: S&P 500 performance after first Fed cut in a cycle.
The figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.GOLD Michał Stajniak
Since 2020, gold has been held within a wide price consolidation range of $1600 to $2000 per ounce. With the potential end of the rate hike cycle in the US, the prospect of gold finally escaping this price pattern is on the horizon. A similar scenario was witnessed during the previous tightening cycle from 2015-2018, where gold remained within a range of $1050 to $1350. With the introduction of rate cuts, gold embarked on a clear upward trajectory. Could history repeat itself? Market expectations suggest that initial rate cuts could emerge as soon as mid-2024. Statistical data shows that the average increase in the price of gold over the two years following the last rate hike is near 20%. If this pattern were to repeat, gold could not only surpass its historical highs, but potentially reach levels nearing $2400. Additionally, gold typically experiences gains shortly before and after the anticipated first-rate cut in a cycle. However, the primary risk to this scenario is a potential return to rate hikes, which could lead to a resurgence of the dollar strength and a yield rally.
From a fundamental standpoint, the demand for gold has been relatively muted over the past year. However, a weaker dollar, coupled with a stronger Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, could change this situation. These countries are fundamental to the physical demand for gold. Moreover, with gold ETFs having ceased their selling activities, potential capital inflows into these funds could stimulate further demand for physical gold.
Chart: Average gold performance ahead and after the first Fed cut in a cycle.
In 2023, the oil market managed to maintain relative stability, in spite of two production cuts implemented by OPEC+. The key question for 2024 is whether OPEC+ countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia, will choose to restore a portion of their normal production, potentially resulting in a more balanced market. Nevertheless, the outlook for demand remains uncertain amongst market participants. Despite China’s rise to becoming the world’s leading oil importer, investors are unsure if the increased demand from China and India will be sufficient to catalyze a significant rebound in oil prices. Furthermore, OPEC+ countries, especially Saudi Arabia, may desire to keep prices within the bracket of $80-100 per barrel. In the face of weak demand, this could instigate further production cuts from oil major producers. Beyond the supply and demand dynamics, both the situation in the Middle East and the upcoming US elections introduce additional elements of uncertainty. On one hand, an intensification of regional conflicts could diminish the available supply in the market. On the other hand, US President Biden may aim to decrease or at least stabilize fuel prices, and may encourage his Arab allies to boost production to accomplish this objective.
Key Facts:
Saudi Arabia has supplied the market with the least amount of oil and fuels since 2015.
China imported over 18 million tons of oil and fuels in the first nine months of 2023, which was more than double the amount in the same period the previous year.
Oil prices remained statistically flat ahead of the US presidential election, but experienced gains post-event.
Chart: Average oil performance ahead and after presidential elections in the US.
Artificial intelligence was the main stock market trend of 2023
Key to its sustainability in 2024 will be the companies’ ability to continue to grow
Companies’ earnings forecasts point to significant revenue and EBITDA growth in the upcoming year
The first wave of euphoria around the rapidly growing AI industry is behind us. This does not mean, however, that in 2024 the topic of artificial intelligence will not linger on the tabloids of major media outlets. For us investors, however, the key question may be whether, in addition to the media spotlight seen in 2023 (which was also followed by an upturn in the valuations of companies in this industry), it will be followed by an increase in the financial performance of the companies that are most closely linked to this market.
It is worth bearing in mind that among the most recognizable AI companies, many of them are also listed as the largest companies in the US market. Looking at how Nvidia, Microsoft or Google may perform fundamentally next year can, in addition to providing insight concerning the artificial intelligence sphere itself, also provide us with a view of how Wall Street as a whole may perform.
Current earnings forecasts for 2024 point to further growth in the AI market. Representative companies are mostly expected to post sizable YoY growth in revenue as well as EBITDA, which could lay the groundwork for a second wave of optimism toward AI. Initially, AI was associated with a wave of speculation, but as the 2023 data and estimates for 2024 show, the industry is actually showing signs of sizable organic growth.
In this regard, it is worth looking at the companies that were/are struggling with profitability in 2023, but the next year is expected to change this situation. After years of losses and ‘cash burn’, technology company Palantir has had a year in which it achieved profitability for the first time in its history. The company has leapfrogged business agreements not only with the public sector but especially with the private sector in 2023, including Amazon Web Services, Oracle and Panasonic. Palantir can therefore look forward to two positive catalysts: the growing civilian sector and the development of AI products and services for defence and intelligence agencies, as geopolitics make its products needed more than ever. From the other hand, Palantir’s lack of a cloud-based recurring-subscription model remains a drag on predictability and limits visibility around management’s expectations for accelerating top-line growth.
Another innovative company that is not yet that known in the broad market, and the financial forecasts seem favourable for it, is SoundHound. The company’s goal is to develop AI-based music and voice recognition technologies and create tools to remotely assist employees with artificial intelligence. The company has struggled with a lack of profitability, which has been exacerbated by an environment of tight central bank policy, meaning that the cost of servicing debt has increased with limited external funding available. Next year, however, is expected to reverse this situation as the market is expected to begin a vigorous process of rate cuts. Lower debt servicing costs and the company’s projected revenue growth could negate the downward wave that company experienced in 2023.
The macro outlook remains key. Generative AI is expected to grow exponentially, according to forecasts, and represent a key portion of companies’ investments in technology in the future.
Bitcoin 2024 halving: Will history repeat?
Next year is highly anticipated for the crypto market, particularly due to the Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years. The focus will also be on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision regarding Bitcoin ETF applications from major Wall Street institutions. The key question is whether the current level of cryptocurrency adoption signifies a long-term foundational shift. In November 2023, Bitcoin daily transactions reached a record high of 710k, but only 235k were financial transactions, signifying a modest 10% annual growth. The number of active Bitcoin addresses has plateaued for over three years. Despite over 15 years since Bitcoin’s inception, its adoption curve is not parallel to the rapid rise of the internet or technologies like ChatGPT. However, factors such as migrations from crypto exchanges, bank failures, and new technological advancements in Bitcoin have spurred increased user activity. Yet, the transaction and adoption data do not solidly support the practical utility for all the 22,000+ cryptocurrencies in existence.
In late 2023, a $4.3 billion fine levied against Binance by the US Department of Justice and the legal proceedings against its founder, Changpeng Zhao, caused concern in the market but did not lead to widespread panic, signaling that investors do not expect another ‘FTX’ story. Despite this, it may be a signal that the trend of ‘moving out’ from crypto exchanges will persist, with unknown future effects for the entire crypto ecosystem. For now, cryptocurrencies are still more ‘anti-systemic’ and speculative assets than products with massive adoption. Financial institutions are recognizing the rising speculative demand and exploring ways to monetize it. The acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs may lead to both retail and institutional investors increasing their investment. Both SEC final deadlines (10 January and 15 March) and the estimated halving date on April 23 lead us to the conclusion that the first half of 2024 will be pivotal for crypto market dynamics.
Visa processes approximately 597 million transactions daily, compared to approximately 1.9 million daily transactions on both the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains.
The BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust ETF could be a catalyst in the coming year, driving investors’ attention to the entire Ethereum ecosystem and smaller projects.
Local market ( GCC )
We and as few economic experts in the Gulf region agreed with the estimates recently announced by the World Bank regarding growth in the six Gulf countries, considering that there are many factors that will help the Gulf economy return to its rise during the next two years.
A World Bank report – issued a few days ago – indicated that the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council region would grow by 1% in 2023, before rising again to record 3.6% and 3.7% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
The bank attributed the weak economic performance this year to the decline in oil sector activities, which is expected to contract by 3.9%, in the wake of successive OPEC+ production cuts, in addition to the global economic slowdown.
Reasons for the decline
Analysts agree with the World Bank’s expectations regarding economic growth in the Gulf over the next two years, stressing that the decline during the current year is due to several reasons, the most important of which are:
Oil production cuts.
Significantly high interest rates.
Uncertainty.
The Chinese economy was affected by a decline in growth rates for the first time in 20 years.
The elimination of the reasons that led to the decline in 2023 will lead to recording better Gulf economic growth during the years 2024 and 2025, according to the following data:
The rise in oil prices affects the Gulf economy directly and positively.
Oil prices rose from 10% to 15% during these two years.
Low interest rates.
Low inflation in the Western economy in general.
Increased demand for oil by about one million to 1.2 million barrels per day.
Increase internal demand.
Diversify sources of income
Resorting to diversifying sources of income will greatly help in the growth of the Gulf economy. What is striking is Qatar’s trend – for example – to develop the tourism sector in conjunction with hosting the 2022 World Cup, and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to host the same tournament in 2034 and Expo 2030 (Riyadh) confirms that The Gulf path is moving towards diversifying sources of income.
The Gulf region enjoys many benefits that qualify its economies for growth, such as:
Security stability that encourages internal and external investments.
Oil components, as the Gulf region is considered among the richest regions in oil and natural gas resources.
Developing infrastructure and providing modern transportation lines.
Extreme flexibility in overcoming obstacles to the external investor and the availability of foreign ownership areas in many Gulf countries.
The GCC countries have a clear vision to diversify their economies, foremost of which is developing non-oil sectors, such as clean energy projects, communications and tourism.
There are huge projects in the field of alternative energy being implemented in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and UAE, most notably the “NEOM” green hydrogen plant in Saudi Arabia, which will produce 600 metric tons of carbon-free hydrogen by the end of 2023.
The region has witnessed a noticeable improvement in the performance of the non-oil sectors, despite the decline in oil production during most of the year 2023, and in addition to the efforts of economic diversification and the development of the non-oil sectors have contributed greatly to the creation of job opportunities in the various sectors and geographical regions. Within the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
In the UAE, the country’s share of oil production within OPEC+ as of January will support growth in the oil sector.
At the same time, the non-oil economy is supported by a strong influx of tourists that exceeds pre-pandemic levels, but despite the number of visitors to Dubai reaching a record level, hotel occupancy rates declined this year and hotel revenue growth slowed.
By Terence Tse
CFOs are evolving into AI-driven transformation orchestrators, balancing finance, technology, and strategy while upskilling teams, managing risks, and driving measurable business value.
A key insight from this year’s AI for CFOs event, organized...
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Settler Colonialism and Palestine: A Reflexion on Historical Trauma and the Presence of Neo Colonialism in the 21st Century
By Marcelina Horrillo Husillos
“For over 55 years, the Israeli military occupation has prevented the realisation of the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people, violating each component of that right and wilfully pursuing the ‘de-Palestinianisation’ of the occupied territory,” Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, states in her report to the UN General Assembly.
Settler colonialism is perpetuated in the 21st century as we speak. It stresses the “logic of elimination”, including the genocidal elimination of the indigenous people, their expulsion from the land, and a number of strategies to destructure and destroy the autochthonous society. It is a long-term territorial conquest that substitutes the indigenous population with settlers.
‘Genocide’ in Gaza is ‘the logic of an apartheid settler colonial state and it has no place in the civilized world,’ says Richard Boyd Barrett, Irish People Before Profit–Solidarity politician.
Israel’s behaviour in Gaza and the West Bank reveals a settler-colony unwilling to engage with the indigenous people of these regions, except through regular forcible removal of Palestinians and appropriation of their lands. What may be considered ethnic cleansing has been a tool for deliberately operating demographic change in the run-up to Israel’s founding in 1948, continuing up to the present-day. Since then, the genocidal statements, slogans of political leaders, and movements that promote the killing of Palestinian children have become crosshairs of apartheid in order to prevent new generations from settling and claiming back their identity.
“The Occupied Palestinian Territory lies above sizable reservoirs of oil and natural gas wealth, in Area C of the occupied West Bank and the Mediterranean coast off the Gaza Strip. However, occupation continues to prevent Palestinians from developing their energy fields so as to exploit and benefit from such assets,” said the study conducted by UNCTAD in 2019.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), significant reservoirs of oil and natural gas have been found off the Gaza Strip and elsewhere under the occupied West Bank. In 2000, two wells drilled by British Gas off the coast of Gaza revealed gas reserves estimated at 1.4 trillion cubic feet. Sixty percent of those reserves belong to Palestinians. Today, natural gas reserves off the coast of Gaza have attracted the attention of British Petroleum and Chevron.
The opportunity presents itself for a final solution— expelling the Palestinian people into the Sinai desert to clear the way for exploiting the natural resources. The Abraham Accords provide a cover for the Arab states—including Qatar, which hosts the biggest US base—to deceive their own populations.
The concept of historical trauma explains the gap between both communities and and the mutual denial that is wider than ever. Each side absorbed on its own trauma is unable to recognize the other’s party’s historical trauma, which may be the main motivator promoting the circle for the history repeating itself pattern.
“Massive traumas like these affect people and societies in multidimensional ways,” said Yael Danieli, PhD, cofounder and director of the Group Project for Holocaust Survivors and their Children in New York
Following Hamas’ Oct. 7th massacre of 1,000 Israeli civilians and kidnapping of 220 Israelis, Israel swiftly launched a relentless campaign of hatred, colossal destruction, and genocide against Palestinian citizens. Over a month into the conflict, Israel has slaughtered more than 17,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, where approximately 70% are women and children and nearly all are civilians. The precise death toll remains unknown as bodies lay under the rubble of bombed homes, hospitals, schools, and marketplaces.
On October 29th Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked ‘Amalek’ Biblical rhetoric to announce genocidal intentions: “slay both man and woman, infant and suckling.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog declared: “It is an entire nation out there that is responsible.” Using dehumanizing language reminiscent of historical genocidal regimes, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant announced: “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.” Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari explained, “The emphasis is on damage and not accuracy.” The New York Times reported “Israeli leaders believed mass civilian casualties were an acceptable price,” and officials cited “the dropping of the two atomic warheads in Hiroshima and Nagasaki” as a model.
Although Israeli-biased propaganda – Hasbara is a strategy of propaganda used by Israel that “seeks to explain actions, whether or not they are justified” – tries to deflect blame by accusing Hamas of using civilians as “human shields,” as “Hamas operations HQs [are] situated in a large network of tunnels below the main hospitals in Gaza”, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and United Nations investigators have time and again found no evidence for the accusation. These groups add that it’s illegal to kill human shields, and that bombing hospitals or any health units breaks international humanitarian law that should be respected in every war.
Neo-colonialism is the cruellest form of the continuation of colonial policies under the guise of achieving freedom and needs to find a stimulus to justify atrocities publicly. Settler colonialism needs public noise to create confusion and legitimize apartheid, crimes, destruction, and the settler subsequent expansion, which otherwise wouldn’t be easily digested by public opinion.
By the mid-1700s, the promoters of the Enlightenment in Scotland, England, and France were fine-tuning “four stages” theories to classify human societies according to imagined “stages of civilization.” Unsurprisingly, Enlightenment writers placed themselves at the “apex” defined as the European commercial society, with agriculturalists, then pastoralists, and lastly hunter-gatherers falling below them.
During the old western colonial times, people inhabiting lands sought for colonization were often describing these as “wasting” land, having “backward” food production practices, and being in need of “civilization”—all according to western definitions.
Beginning in the late 19th century, Zionists who initiated the nationalist project for Israel, a land that they considered their ancestral home, gave little thought to the Palestinians. Zionists were deeply informed by scornful views of small-scale farming and sheep-herding societies. British administrators during the Mandate period (1920-1948) developed a similarly dim view on much of Arab agriculture.
The Zionist project to “make the desert bloom” was based, in part, on damaging misunderstandings of Arab dryland wheat and baʿlī farming systems. Baʿlī planting, tillage, and plant protection methods, as demonstrated by Palestinian geographer Omar Tesdell, facilitate growing crops without irrigation,and have much to teach farmers in increasingly drought-prone regions.
“From Hawaiʻi to Palestine—occupation is a crime. A lāhui [Nation, race, tribe, people, or nationality] that stands for decolonization and de-occupation should also stand behind freedom for Palestine,” says Uahikea Maile, Assistant Professor of Indigenous Politics in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.
Historical trauma
Psychological researchers and clinicians examine what the long-term impact of these and other traumatic events can have—not just on those who survive these tragedies, but on their children and grandchildren as well. Their varied efforts look at intergenerational effects of events as diverse as the Holocaust, the Khmer Rouge killings in Cambodia, the Rwandan genocide, the cultural displacement of American Indians, and the enslavement of African Americans, as well as of large-scale natural disasters like hurricanes and earthquakes. Not only are the transgenerational effects psychological, but also familial, social, cultural, neurobiological, and possibly even genetic, the researchers say.
One way to understand the present events between Israelis and Palestinians is to see it through the historical trauma’s perspective. For both sides, some of the recent events have evoked memories of each community worst national suffering. For Israelis and Palestinians, this conflict has surfaced fears, that history could possibly repeat itself.
For many Israelis, the 9/11 Hamas attack evoked the most chilling memory of all: the Holocaust. Part of Israel’s creation story is the idea that Jews would no longer find themselves defenceless, that a modern state and a strong military would act as a guarantee against further exterminations.
Palestinians have their own trauma, beginning with the Nakba—the catastrophe that coincided with Israel’s founding in 1948. Approximately 700,000 Palestinians were displaced from their homes and became refugees, many forcibly displaced by the nascent Israeli army. Most Palestinians in Gaza today are the descendants of those refugees. The Nakba is not the exclusive trauma of the 1948 refugees and their descendants. Like the Holocaust for Jews, it is the emotional inheritance of all Palestinians.
For years, Israel admitted that the Nakba never took place. Israelis accused the Palestinians of creating this fiction in order to delegitimize Israel. Only recently hasIsrael begun to acknowledge the incontrovertible facts of the Nakba, and the latest event will surely reaffirm these facts.
Among some Palestinians, there is also a trend to deny the historicity of the Holocaust, to claim that it never happened. For those who acknowledge the horrific crimes of the Nazis, many feel that the creation of Israel was an attempt to redress those crimes at their expense. Israelis largely view these claims as a polemical construct designed to delegitimize Israel and a manifestation of Palestinian antisemitism. So that’s where Israelis and Palestinians are as this conflict enters another week—triggered by their own traumas and reluctant to recognize the other side’s.
The renowned Austrian Jewish author and psychiatrist Professor Viktor Frankl, who was a Holocaust survivor, and founded the revolutionary theory in psychiatry named Logotherapy, always promoted forgiveness as the way to set yourself free from previous living traumas, as it will break the circle of hatred and violence:
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way” Viktor Frankl
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.