Digitalisation, fragmentation, and rising trade risks are reshaping cross-border growth, creating new challenges and opportunities for ambitious international businesses.
International expansion has never been free of risk, but the list of risks and issues that businesses face when they branch out across borders has become more extensive. Tariffs have become a regrettable fact of life, geopolitical tensions can massively redirect trade without warning, regulations are becoming increasingly complex, and supply chains remain vulnerable to disruption.
Our annual HLB Survey of Business Leaders has shown both the number and perceived severity of risks rising since the programme began in 2020, with average concern levels across its risk radar reaching a record 63% in 2026. Yet, despite all this, organisations have never stopped looking overseas.
UNCTAD estimates that global goods trade reached approximately $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, 12.5% higher than a year earlier, while services trade grew by 10.5%. Those figures might seem to contradict the manifold obstacles international organisations are facing, but they prove that the commercial case for crossing borders remains strong.
Success, however, increasingly depends on ensuring that a global expansion plan has been fully and properly thought through, and that each strategy has the resilience and flexibility to withstand the unforeseen.
A more demanding trading environment
More than a year after Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”, tariffs remain the most visible sign of this challenging trading environment. The WTO reported that the value of global goods imports affected by new tariffs and other import measures more than quadrupled between October 2024 and October 2025 compared with the previous 12 months, reaching the highest level in more than 15 years of monitoring.
What this means for organisations planning an international expansion is that margins and product competitiveness are both likely to fluctuate significantly once the expansion plan is approved, creating a layer of uncertainty that some will find dispiriting.
Wars and geopolitical disputes, which have become an unfortunate fixture of recent news, add another layer of pressure. Besides how they impact demand in affected areas, they can also close shipping routes, increase energy and insurance costs, restrict access to materials, and force businesses to change their supply lines with little notice.
Another layer to the constant vacillation of supply and demand is that of currency itself, which can meaningfully change market economics in the period between an organisation signing a contract and receiving payment, adding to the pressures felt by those operating across borders.
Another element these firms will have to deal with is scrutiny, both in the form of regulation and that of closer examination of foreign investment. When entering a new market, businesses must already contend with local rules governing tax, employment, data, quality control, and reporting; but now they must also be prepared for new, swiftly implemented controls around overseas ownership and new forms of compliance. How differently those pressures play out from one jurisdiction to another is something I have to deal with every day leading a network that covers more than 150 countries.
These manifold pressures create major obstacles for international growth, with significant risks for those that overextend and commit to expansions without properly anticipating the potential downfalls. Any plan built which reflects domestic strategy and fails to account for the potential turbulence of global commerce is unlikely to meet expectations, let alone succeed.
However, as the impressive UNCTAD figures around global goods trade demonstrate, these obstacles are not insurmountable. The benefits are clear for businesses who can overcome them, provided the appropriate preparations and concessions are made.
Fortune favours the bold
New markets can give a business access to customers, skills, suppliers, and capabilities that are unavailable at home. Operating across several countries may also reduce its dependence on demand in any one economy, while creating the scale needed to compete, which has been made easier than ever before as digital platforms allow firms to register an overseas footprint without a physical presence.
That continuing appetite for international growth can be seen in investment figures. Global foreign direct investment rose by 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2025, ending two years of decline. The recovery was uneven, with investment into developed economies increasing by 11% and developing economies by only 2%, but businesses are clearly still committing capital across borders.
Choosing where to expand now requires stronger evidence that a particular market can support a viable operation. The opportunities remain considerable, provided companies investigate them thoroughly before deciding where and how to invest.
Finding the right fit
The first and most important judgement that decision-makers must make when assessing an attractive market is the level at which the business will actually operate. They have to look beyond that country’s headline growth, as that won’t translate automatically into demand for a particular product, nor does it indicate the time required to secure a licence or the cost of employing the right people.
The issues that go into determining the eventual return of an overseas expansion go much deeper than just demand, with tax, customs, data rules, and the ability to move money across borders all playing a role in determining the success of the venture.
For management teams, this means that plans have to be made flexible, and that potential variables are exhaustively considered long before any action is taken. What are the assumptions that underpin this move? And what will happen if those assumptions are proven wrong? Would the operation remain viable if a tariff raised input costs, the local currency weakened, or a supplier became unavailable? These are just some of the questions that must be considered to avoid the worst possible outcomes.
This is already influencing corporate behaviour. Allianz Trade’s 2026 survey of 6,000 companies across 13 markets found that 80% had adjusted trade and supply-chain routes following the 2025 US tariff announcements, while 75% still expected positive export growth. Businesses are changing their plans so that international growth can continue under different conditions.
A robust plan should therefore include agreed thresholds for proceeding, pausing, or changing course. Those decisions are easier when leaders make them before commercial enthusiasm and sunk costs begin to narrow the available options.
Globalisation is becoming more deliberate
Any cross-border strategy that relies on the assumption that markets will remain open, aligned, and predictable is running a risk that no business today can afford. Tariffs, regulation, and geopolitical tension have become part of the equation for the cost of doing business, and disruption has become a question of when, not if.
By understanding local conditions early, testing the assumptions behind an investment, and retaining room to adjust, businesses can continue to reach new markets and build internationally.
The continuing growth in trade and investment shows that businesses are finding ways forward, and I remain optimistic about the opportunities available to companies that overcome the uncertainty in search of growth and expansion, even though it might require more preparation than it once did.
About the Author
Marco Donzelli is Global CEO of HLB International, where he has led the network since 2017. Under his leadership, HLB has strengthened its position as a top 10 professional services network internationally. Prior to becoming CEO, Marco held senior leadership roles within HLB, following earlier roles at Deutsche Bank, Deloitte and in management consultancy. He also mentors start-ups and entrepreneurs through the Cambridge Master of Entrepreneurship and Barclays Eagle Lab programmes.
