It is not a secret that global growth is stalling, geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, and multilateralism is under strain. In this situation, the role of mid-sized economies – or “middle powers” – in shaping the future of foreign direct investment (FDI) is gaining renewed significance. This dynamic is especially visible in Central Asia, a region increasingly at the crossroads of global trade and energy transition. At the recent meeting of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Investors’ Council (FIC) in Astana, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev offered a compelling case for how emerging powers can remain attractive to international investors by building trust through structural credibility, legal predictability, and strategic alignment with global trends.
Kazakhstan is far from the only country attempting this. But its model, anchored in institutional reform, geographic leverage, and digital ambition, offers instructive lessons for other emerging markets.
Reform Agenda Tailored to Investor Confidence
Despite rising global uncertainty, developing economies can still demonstrate resilience through intentional reform. Tokayev noted that Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6% in the first five months of 2025, led by transport, logistics, construction, trade, and processing industry. He emphasized that this growth is being underpinned not only by natural resource wealth, but by policy choices designed to improve the country’s investment ecosystem.
Among these is the establishment of an “Investment Headquarters,” a rapid-response mechanism that has already resolved issues surrounding 137 projects worth $70 billion, while helping initiate 140 legislative amendments to remove systemic investor barriers. In parallel, the introduction of a “prosecutor’s filter,” which prevents inspections, lawsuits, or penalties on investors without prior approval from the Prosecutor General’s Office, sends a message that legal stability and investor protection are central to the country’s development strategy.
As multilateral investment treaties face political backlash and global FDI becomes more selective, countries like Kazakhstan must compete on institutional predictability. The state must be seen not only as a regulator, but as a partner in investment.
Critical Minerals and Strategic Geography
Yet institutional reform alone is not enough. Kazakhstan’s geographic positioning, as a key junction on the Eurasian landmass and a core component of the emerging Middle Corridor, gives it leverage in the ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains.
Kazakhstan is also betting big on its role in the critical minerals race. With a rich subsoil resource base, transparent subsoil legislation, and a new tax code designed to incentivize in-country processing, the country is positioning itself as a credible value chain. Tokayev’s remarks highlighted active cooperation with global mining giants such as Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Ivanhoe, First Quantum, and Glencore, whose CEO, Gary Nagle, met with the President on the sidelines to discuss new joint ventures.
Kazakhstan’s massive infrastructure modernisation plan aims to reinforce its role as a strategic transit hub linking Europe and Asia. By 2029, the country plans to reconstruct 11,000 kilometres of existing railways and lay an additional 5,000 kilometres of new highways. This year, 830 kilometres of new railway track will be launched along the Dostyk–Moiynty route, two years ahead of schedule, a move expected to increase corridor capacity fivefold. Other similarly ambitious infrastructure projects are on the way.
In the context of today’s global trade politics, Kazakhstan’s physical infrastructure may become as valuable as its natural one.
Digital Ambition in the Age of Crypto
While much attention has focused on Kazakhstan’s traditional strengths in mining and energy, Tokayev used the FIC meeting to signal that the next frontier lies in digital sovereignty, artificial intelligence, and fintech innovation.
Kazakhstan is currently ranked in the top 30 countries in the UN’s global digitalisation index. The number of fintech companies has quadrupled since 2018, with over 4,000 entities, including crypto exchanges and payment providers, now registered at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). According to Tokayev, more than 89% of transactions in Kazakhstan are already cashless, and mobile banking has grown by 460% in the last four years.
One of the more intriguing proposals presented at the Council was the development of “CryptoCity” – a pilot zone where cryptocurrencies could be used to purchase goods and services. This experiment, if successful, could place Kazakhstan at the forefront of regulated digital finance innovation among emerging markets.
Tokayev also stressed that AI is now seen as a strategic sector. Here, cooperation with global players is critical. Wabtec, for example, is investing $200 million into Kazakhstan’s rolling stock sector with an eye toward next-generation fuel technologies and digital rail systems.
Global Partnerships and Challenges to Watch
Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), confirmed that EBRD investments in Kazakhstan tripled in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching nearly €1 billion. Meanwhile, Citi Bank CEO David Livingstone reiterated the bank’s interest in supporting Kazakhstan’s SME sector, while Philip Morris International’s regional president Marco Mariotti noted the company’s plans to deepen its presence in Kazakhstan’s innovation ecosystem.
These are long-cycle players looking for regulatory trust, infrastructure stability, and alignment with global ESG and digital standards.
That said, Kazakhstan’s reform narrative will only hold if it continues to deliver. Two challenges stand out. First, institutional capacity. While reforms like the prosecutor’s filter and the Investment Headquarters are promising, their long-term effectiveness will depend on implementation at regional and local levels, often the weakest link in emerging economies.
Second, while Kazakhstan has made strides in attracting FDI, the next hurdle is ensuring that capital inflows translate into long-term productivity gains across a broader range of sectors. Moving beyond resource dependency will require stronger SME ecosystems and sustained efforts to build local capacity in high-tech, value-added industries.
Overall, Kazakhstan’s FDI strategy reflects the future of middle power statecraft in an age of fragmentation. Legal reform, supply chain positioning, and digital transformation are being combined into a hybrid investment model that speaks to both current needs and future demands.
For international observers and investors alike, Kazakhstan is an example of how resource-rich states can reimagine their global relevance in the 21st century.
