Wars Of The Future Are Coming. Are We Ready? Foretelling Technological and Strategic Evolution of Battlefields

July 2, 2024

Technology and infrastructure change the world unnoticeably every day, and quite distinctively every thirty years so let us imagine together, if we can, how the world will be seen ninety years from today. Wars, locked to accelerating technological changes, are morphing away from their conventional hundred-year-old strategies into tactics that could lessen brutality and death and yet increase the worries of civilian safety. Whatever happens, future wars will be unrecognizable.

“Hard questions arise when we enter the realm of semi-autonomous and potentially autonomous robotic machines that are at the same time lethal… Moreover, regardless of how smart a robot becomes, it is not clear whether it would ever be ethical for a machine to kill a human.”
—Elinor Sloan, Robotics and Military Operations¹

If you sleep for ninety years and wake in 2114, you will not see cars, at least not vehicles that resemble cars. Autonomous “levitators” would speed over “roads” that don’t look like the roads we know of today. Your cell phone, if we then still call it that, will be just one neurochip connected to cochlear nerves and another to the tongue and jaw. You’d whisper, “Taxi, please” whenever you’d wish to hail one of those levitating vehicles to take yourself where you wish to go. Addictions to social media feeds will be far worse than what they now appear to be. Suppose the generations of the century are not vigilant. In that case, facts will be tethered to a noisy 24-hour-a-day world news cycle fed directly from feedback loops fashioned by competing media companies manipulating mixed commercial and political biases — that is, if there will still be politics. Imagine the future when the brain is plugged into apps for short-term memory when needed. With embedded technology you will not need to know the time of day; the neurochips within you will know your daily schedule and warn you of each upcoming event of the day at the appropriate hour, or possibly down to minutes, to give you a chance to get ready. More advanced still, Siri, Alexa, or likely some other digital assistant will be a genie in the mind that will give you instant information. if, for instance, you ask about the newest weapons of war, not just saying “Here is what I found on Wikipedia” but feeding you what to believe to be a truthful piece of information.

An MQ-1 Predator, armed with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, remotely piloted by Lt. Col. Scott Miller on a combat mission over southern Afghanistan. (US Air Force Photo / Lt. Col. Leslie Pratt) Public Domain.

Of course, I’m being fanciful with my futuristic imagination. Like it or not though, there will be change enough to make us feel as if we had entered a posthuman unrecognisable world. The way I see it, there will be changes that we cannot anticipate, and they may be for better or worse. We, the indigenous planet occupiers, will not notice the slow shifts in human accomplishments; the failures and triumphs will blend as time passes with acceptance of human desires, cravings, and ignorance. We cannot destroy the world; all we can do is destroy our existence, vis-à-vis our brilliance of knowing how to break an atom in two. Wars will continue to be wars, but when time moves on will they obey the common laws as they inevitably change from human to autonomous control that has no morals? For the short answer, we probe into four morally intractable facets of changes: the advancements of autonomous weapons, lasers, cyber-ware, and military outsourcing.

But we are still in 2024 with one change we are not noticing: The unmanning of war

We cannot sleep now and wake in 2114 but we can anticipate a likely future where wars are fought from a distance using digital warriors. The ultimate questions are, therefore, who benefits, who will do the fighting, and how lethal will wars be ninety years from now when they will be on digitally smart battlefield theatres in the air, sea, on the ground, and in space? Here, in 2024, it seems that, aside from a few notable scholars in military affairs, there are no political or military leaders expressing concerns about momentously significant technology changes that are shifting warfare paradigms.

Are there concerns? Surely there are! Some autonomous warfare strategies will save lives, but have we properly probed the moral and social ramifications? Let us remember that wars, and how we fight within them, affect science, technology, economics, politics, culture, welfare, the foundations of humanity itself, and who we are as a people. Perhaps, because future wars could be less lethal, some good can come from autonomous battling. But have we thought about possible dangers that could come from new tools of warfare that could be used by criminal players, crime syndicates, militias, and terrorists? Have we thought about what could go wrong with weapons that could be left with AI decision-making independence? Surely, the military establishment has reviewed these questions and answered them in favour of their natural biases, but shouldn’t some overseeing checks be coming from more impartial control groups before funding commitments go too far for eventual international law restrictions?

Robotic Advancement

Not long ago, Isaac Asimov, H.G. Wells, and Jules Verne brought us to the exotic science fiction of drones with a lucid grasp of their power and how they will transform warfare.² Drones have been with us for a long time. The first unmanned military aircraft was deployed in WWI. Radio command signals from UK Royal Air Force ground operations piloted unmanned biplanes.³ Following that war, small monoplanes were converted to drones that were launched by autopilot from warships. Remote-controlled experimental flying machines have been continuously improving since the early years of the last century. The Soviets had their partially automated TT-26 tanks in 1940, and the Germans had their Goliath, a remote-controlled demolition vehicle in 1944. Neither were effective in WWII trench war battles. The first mobile robot skilled in ground warfighting came in the 1960s under the guidance of master plans and strategies for future wars.⁴ Advanced technology since the Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine wars has significantly improved precision and distant remote control of small and large aircraft. We are now in the 2020s with a new generation of war systems changing the experience as several advanced countries improve remotely controlled planes, ships, and tanks so that soldiers can remotely target their enemies from a distance halfway around the world.

If the U.S. can pilot an attack far from the battlefield, sooner, or later the supply chain of remote-controlled weapons will be available to almost any allied country that can afford them.

Fighting from a distance is not a new idea. As one myth goes, in the third century BC war with Rome, Syracusans took scientific advice from Archimedes to use bronze reflecting mirrors concentrating sun rays to set ablaze Roman warships. By the late Middle Ages and the end of the Hundred Years War, thanks to chemistry that brought gunpowder and firearms to the battlefields, weaponry rapidly advanced to the concept of the cannon that could lob shells filled with gunpowder almost a mile. The 19th century brought the internal combustion engine that gave us the tractor and automobile, one of the game-changers of warfare, alongside the steam engine, electricity, and radio communications. The most underappreciated yet brilliantly invented tool is the hydraulic pump that is now so commonly used for muscle-power work by cranes and backhoes that replace men digging trenches and hauling inhumanly heavy loads.

Advances in weaponry have not stopped and by technological spiraling, never will. Every new weapon since the trench warfare of WWI has been to kill from a greater distance than was possible before. That war brought us the reconnaissance biplanes, submarines, tanks, and the Zeppelin airship that carried and dropped bombs.⁵ WWII produced rockets and aircraft carriers, radar, and, should we mention, nuclear bombs? The Vietnam War gave us the gunner helicopter that could fly low and hover over purportedly suspicious things that moved on the ground. And now we have GPS for precision guidance, electronic sensors, minuscule surveillance cameras, air, and sea drones robotically calibrated to hit an enemy far beyond any visible scope with pinpoint accuracy, and automation equipment that was unimaginable at the beginning of this century. So, we must ask ourselves what the next advancements are, for both offence and defence, and whether they will bring fewer deaths in battle.

If we can guide drones remotely, we can do the same with tanks, planes, and robot infantry. The US Army has a fully operational BMP-1 tank equipped with remote-controlled cannons. It has iRobots and PacBots, ground robots with cameras, sensors, dexterous arms, and tank threads that can climb stairs. And ever since the last phases of the Afghanistan War, the US Air Force Predators, armed with 500-pound precision bombs, were controlled by pilots living on army bases in the United States. As Gary Fabricius, a Predator squadron commander said, “You see Americans killed in front of your eyes and then have to go to a PTA meeting. You are going to war for 12 hours, shooting weapons at targets, directing kills on enemy combatants, and then you get in the car, drive home, and within 20 minutes you are sitting at the dinner table talking to your kids about their homework.”³⁰

By that account, it might seem that killer-drone pilots should be far enough away from the battle zone to be safe. Physically safe, yes. Yet even a Predator squadron soldier experiencing killing in virtual separation from enemies has combat PTSD levels equal to, and perhaps higher than, those who battled from trenches on the front lines. That’s partly because virtual pilots know that they are killing. When they sink a ship, sailors die. When they release a bomb, someone is likely killed. And sometimes — too many times — their drones kill the wrong people.

Captain Richard Koll, left, and Airman 1st Class Mike Eulo perform function checks after launching an MQ-1 Predator unmanned aerial vehicle on August 7 at Balad Air Base, Iraq. Captain Koll, the pilot, and Airman Eulo, the sensor operator, will fly the Predator in a radius of approximately 25 miles around the base before handing it off to personnel stationed in the United States to continue its mission. Both are assigned to the 46th Expeditionary Reconnaissance Squadron. Public Domain.

Today’s Predators are just overtures of what they will become. Prototypes always have upgrades. We don’t have to imagine what those upgrades will be, they are already beyond pre-manufactured modelling. The latest versions are not only used for surveillance, but they are also ready to perform ground attacks, spot submarines far below ocean surfaces, and defeat human-piloted fighter jets in air-to-air combat.^6,7The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, armed with four air-to-ground missiles, were used in the Ukraine War. They can fly at 136mph at an altitude of 18,000 feet. The US MQ-9 Reaper drones (recently flying over Gaza searching for hostages in the Israel-Hamas war) manufactured by General Atomics, an American energy and defense corporation headquartered in San Diego, California, is the latest generation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS). They fly by satellite communications, carrying up to 3,000 pounds of weapons including Hellfire missiles and 500-pound laser- or GPS-guided bombs. With dog-fighting capacity, they could knock out human-piloted MiGs.⁸ In case you are wondering if drones could replace manned fighter planes, the X-45 is a fighter drone that costs an inconsequential $1.8 billion and could compete with an F-35 costing $40 billion.

Humans have many failings but so do machines

Humans are driven by motivation and limited by fatigue, but they can also be goaded by anger and limited by intoxication. Machines with satellite-sharp computer vision can process information to make quick decisions, but GPS blackout technology can jam their missions. Humans can learn, but so can machines as both go through the innovation cycle to get better at what they do. Take Switchblade 600, for instance, a reconnaissance drone-guided missile looking for a target. It is called an “extended range loitering missile,” a drone that hovers until it completes an accuracy check.⁹ So far, it needs a human to choose its targets remotely before using its AI to establish a clean shot and finish the job. The next stage in drone development for AeroVironment, Switchblade’s maker, estimated to come as soon as next year, will be to remove humans from decision-making. Another example is the fully automatic Turkish STM Kargu-2 drone. A UN report claims that it has been used in the Second Libyan Civil War (2014-2020) conflict to kill an unknown number of combatants.¹⁰ These autonomous systems “were programmed to attack targets without requiring data connectivity between the operator and the munition: in effect, a true ‘fire, forget and find’ capability.”¹¹

Launch of XQ-58A Valkyrie uncrewed aircraft. Public Domain.

The US Air Force is experimenting with XQ-58A Valkyrie, a pilotless aircraft run entirely by artificial intelligence that can carry missiles to enemy targets over three thousand miles from its base and return without any human intervention. It is intended to be part of a “fleet of traditional fighter jets, giving human pilots a swarm of highly capable robot wingmen to deploy in battle. Its mission is to marry artificial intelligence and its sensors to identify and evaluate enemy threats and then, after getting human sign-off, to move in for the kill.¹² Any instrument of war should be tempered by deep concerns about how much autonomy to grant to a lethal weapon. “It’s a very strange feeling,” test pilot Major Ros Elder said while flying an F-15 fighter alongside an XQ-58A, “I’m flying off the wing of something that’s making its own decisions. And it’s not a human brain.”¹³

Scary as autonomous weapons are, the new toy of war does not need autonomy to do its job, though that feature will come.

DragonFire laser-directed energy weapon (LDEW) system. The United Kingdom’s DragonFire laser. (photo credit: UK Defense Ministry)

Following a test of DragonFire, a powerful long-range laser weapon that can bring down an advanced fighter jet by cutting through its wings, UK Defence Secretary, Grant Shapp said, “This type of cutting-edge weaponry has the potential to revolutionize the battlefield by reducing the reliance on expensive ammunition.”¹⁴ DragonFires will be just one of many counteroffensive weapons of the future battlefield. Its accuracy is stunning; working at the speed of light, DragonFires are able to strike a £1 coin at half a kilometer. These non-explosive devices can work from anywhere without having to be reloaded, and cost about ten of those £1 coins for each firing. By comparison, the US-made Patriot interceptor missile system costs four times the price of one DragonFire but has a better capability of taking down fast-moving targets. Shimon Fhima, Director of Strategic Programmes in the UK Ministry of Defence tells us, “The DragonFire trials at the Hebrides demonstrated that our world-leading technology can track and engage high-end effects at range. In a world of evolving threats, we know that our focus must be on getting capability to the warfighter and we will look to accelerate this next phase of activity.”¹⁵

The US Air Force is experimenting with XQ-58A Valkyrie, a pilotless aircraft run entirely by artificial intelligence that can carry missiles to enemy targets over three thousand miles from its base and return without any human intervention.

Some future wars are already in progress. With the improvement of intensive control of airspace, it could change the battlefield for all unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs). After the recent Iran attempt to launch a massive attack on Israel, deploying 170 drones and 150 ballistic and cruise missiles, nearly all were taken down by defence interceptors, not lasers. It was a 1,000-mile direct attack from Iranian territory.

Tamara Qiblawi, Senior Investigator for CNN, began her report on Iran’s attempted attack on Israel by saying, “[T]he world held its breath as weapons whizzed through the night sky. They were balls of fire hovering overhead as onlookers across three different countries filmed images that seemed to harken the start of a cataclysmic war.” She then went on to say, “the operation amounted to little more than a terrifying fireworks display,”¹⁶ Though Qiblawi suggested that Iran’s intention was a show of retaliation without inciting an exhausting war, Iran’s intention could not have been to fail. Its poor display of weaponry in a show-off battleground theatre will have significantly diminished future international sales of its weapons.

Iran is a major producer of drones and hopes to be a supplier on the international stage. If defence interceptors can take massive drone swarms down with the success seen on April 14, 2024, Iran’s hopes for drone sales must be dropping. Now, with DragonFires ready to be tested on the real battlefields of Ukraine, unless Iran’s drones are vastly improved to avoid interception, those relatively expensive drones will be wasted. Provided that DragonFire works as expected, the laser may also become more capable of hitting fast-moving targets than interceptor missiles, which, for some, cost $1 million per launch and have the disadvantage of being unable to travel at the speed of light.

As if that isn’t enough of unmanned weapon advancement, the US has its RQ-4 Global Hawk, “the flying albino whale,” with a 130-foot wingspan that can fly 60,000 feet above sea level with a preplanned autopilot route range of 8,700 miles.¹⁷ It can take off, fly 3,000 miles, and return by itself. Beyond that, there is the Polecat, something different, a bomber drone with “a fully automatic flight control and mission-handling system” able to take off and land without human instruction.¹⁸ Soon there will be unmanned solar and liquid hydrogen-powered [unmanned aircraft systems] (UASs), almost the length of a football field.

What about the idea of battlefields in the air? By that I mean command centres that stay aloft at high altitudes. There are plans for airships larger than football fields to be parked in the air like supermassive hummingbirds at a sugar-laced feeder “as high as one hundred thousand feet up, for weeks, months or years, serving as communications relay, spy satellite, hub for ballistic missile defense system, floating gas station, or even airstrip for other planes and drones.”¹⁹

What?! That’s right, you heard it here, a battlefield in the sky. What seems to be science fiction is technology moving from fiction to real drawing boards. But those massive, unmanned airships might soon have tiny relatives, “itty-bitty, teeny-weeny UAVs”.²⁰ They are insect-size air vehicles, nanobots weighing less than 10 grams that could hover in one place for a minute or two, have a range of 1,000 meters with a speed of 10 meters per second, quite fast for something that small. Peter Singer, Professor of Practice at Arizona State University Center on the Future of War and the School of Politics and Global Studies tells us that some micro-unmanned aerial vehicles can be the size of dragonflies or maple tree seeds. They are planned to become a new wave of spy drones carrying sensors and cameras powered by chemical rockets. They can self-recharge using electromagnets while hovering over lightbulbs or electrical outlets, climb pipes, and peek into windows to gather intelligence. How’s that for something that must have taken fantastic imagination for anyone living long before 2024?

Huh? Yes, believe it, but whatever else to be known is classified. Someday, these tiny things will become self-propelled missiles that could “deconstruct a target from the inside out.”²¹ Beware, though. The guiding talent and funding of military robotic research coming from the US is the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA), a 67-year-old agency under the Defense Sciences Office of the United States unequivocally responsible for the Internet, email, cell phones, computer graphics, weather satellites, fuel cell, lasers, night vision, and the Saturn V rockets. With such a track record and a budget of almost $4 billion, we should not underestimate DARPA with whatever plans it has for the future. Those plans will certainly involve robotic motherships and swarms of autonomous drones, all, either managed from a distance or left to their autonomous brilliances.

Star Wars fantasies come to life

The scary, creepy, chilling part is that weapons now in draft stages are classified as top-secret. So, we are far from knowing how battles will be fought as early as a decade from now. It is alarming to think that someday we will have robots fighting robots in space. That might be alright. We might have to settle for a Battlestar Galactica programme, but could we handle troupes of robots lobbing whatever they can toss down at whomever they believe is their enemy? Something to think about. Let’s be thankful that humans can think.

Technologies are coming at rapid speeds to operate battlefields with little human control. Humans could continue to operate unmanned weapons remotely, or future robots could take over, autonomously sensing and acting in the world, identical to a law-abiding human combatant. It poses a dilemma that should be thought out soon before it becomes irrevocably decided by military planners.²²

If the US can pilot an attack far from the battlefield, sooner, or later the supply chain of remote-controlled weapons will be available to almost any allied country that can afford them. Enemy states at war will fight on some state’s homeland after acquiring remote-controlled weapons. But in the next generation of conflicts, tools will not be just remotely controlled but rather semi-autonomous. And the next after that will be a fully autonomous military with machines gaining more and more autonomy, making decisions on who to attack. Will there be a generation after that? Of course! There always is. Some futurists point to the Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot (EATR) that could “forage for plant biomass to fuel itself, theoretically operating indefinitely?” While on long-range missions, EATR searches and grabs preferred food with a robotic arm and puts it in its combustion engine “stomach” that charges its battery. No joke. It is one of the US military projects developed by two technology companies and the University of Maryland Park’s Center for Technology Systems Management.²³

Technologies are coming at rapid speeds to operate battlefields with little human control. Humans could continue to operate unmanned weapons remotely, or future robots could take over, autonomously sensing and acting in the world, identical to a law-abiding human combatant.

“As our weapons are designed to have ever more autonomy,” Singer tells us, “deeper questions arise. Can the new armaments reliably separate friend from foe? What laws and ethical codes apply? What are we saying when we send out unmanned machines to fight for us? What is the ‘‘message’’ that those on the other side receive? Ultimately, how will humans remain masters of weapons that are immeasurably faster and more ‘‘intelligent’’ than they are?”²⁴ No doubt, remote-controlled mechanical soldiers save lives, mostly on the side using them. As some generals have pointed out, they obey orders, have no fear, do not get hungry, and show no emotions when their robotic partners get hit. There are humanitarian benefits to autonomous warfare; damage is better controlled and mostly limited to infrastructure and opponent war machines, and machines tend to follow rules of behaviour. Of course, there is always the concern of the moral health of military leadership and governance. So, one welcomed advantage is the diminishing number of war crimes committed.

Let’s not fool ourselves, though. Every technological advance brings with it both benefits and problems. Fully independent lethal weapons could be a problem if they cannot distinguish between military and civilian targets. The war in Ukraine is accelerating the research and development of autonomous weapons as the Red Cross addresses concerns about risks of unpredictable slipups beyond human control.²⁵Controlling the morals of humans is hard enough. Can we do better with robots? With the technical development of autonomous power advancing exponentially over time, we should be better prepared for a future when robots begin to learn, gain independence, and take autonomous control of decisions that were once limited to humans. There will be a time when some players feel immorally comfortable designing robots that can escape their control systems of moral responsibilities in decisions of life and death.^26,27

Robot on robot

Today’s private armies are different yet concerning. I estimate that the US will be able to — not that it will — wage a completely autonomous small-scale war by 2035. That would require a remote workforce for operating computer-guiding missiles, drone bombing, and repairs. Eventually, it will cut the living workforce by more than 60%. What will be the role of the International Criminal Court when fully autonomous killer drones and infantry robots are fighting our wars? What happens then, when all sides of combat go on full AI with swarms of synchronised deadly automatons? Wars will continue until one side falls behind in its speed of weapon replenishment — a fight to the last android.

Ukraine has used thousands of semiautonomous drones along with AI drone interceptors. It has already used remote-controlled ground vehicles (UGV) that move up to the front lines and lob bombs into Russian infantry trenches.²⁸No country possesses fully autonomous robot combatants capable of attacking enemies on the ground; that is just a matter of time before the next technological advancement in weaponry when wars will be fought from remote positions with robot warriors on both sides of a conflict so that all the fighting could ease harm to humans.

The moral responsibility of military robots

As it almost always happens sooner or later in warfare, highly prized, expensive, and advanced weapons are lost, captured, or compromised in battle. Those seized weapons are then studied to be replicated, manufactured, and adapted to an ongoing conflict. They tend to be relatively small and easily transportable. So, what had once been expensive innovating tools of war become widely available cheap knockoffs readily available for counteroffensive battles. Worse, they could be found on the weapons trading black market for sale to anyone from terrorists to revolutionaries.

In late 2020, the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s highest-ranking nuclear physicist, was carried out by a remote-controlled truck with a covered satellite-operated machine gun and enough explosives to make the whole scene practically disappear so as not to blame Mossad. The killing worked smoothly but some equipment survived and was pieced together for evidence of Israel’s role. If an unmanned vehicle can position itself miles from a stationary remote control and trigger an automatic weapon then so can a tank, or a robot. Making tanks and robots killing machines takes sophistication to a higher level than making Mossad’s truck. But the basic science and engineering behind the truck with a gun is a tad less simple than that of a heavy equipment vehicle with a large-caliber gun mounted on a turret. Knowing how to build automated conventional weapons is now out of the bag of basics so the rest of our world of countries — as well as insurrectionists, revolutionaries, and terrorists — can make their unmanned killing machines. With that, battles will be a robot on robot.

Of course, the basics are not as simple as it seems in words. However, in the best circumstances, moral codes might be part of an autonomous infantry robot’s specs that depend on an initial programme of tactical brilliance that, under unexpected situations, could have objectives clashing with robot sensors. Without a human brain, it might go berserk not knowing when to click the off switch. As Daniel H. Wilson, one of the New York Times bestselling authors wrote in his book, How to Survive a Robot Uprising, “Any machine could rebel, from a toaster to a Terminator, and so it’s crucial to learn the common strengths and weaknesses of every robot enemy. Pity the fate of the ignorant when the robot masses decide to stop working and to start invading.”²⁹

The sciences and technologies needed to build or modify military robots are not as challenging as nuclear fission or cancer research, especially because the software is open-source. So, almost every country in the world is now working on manufacturing and improving military robots. As Peter Singer said in a 2009 US Naval Academy lecture, “These technologies are not like an aircraft carrier or atomic bomb, where you need a massive industrial structure to put them together. A lot of them use commercial, off-the-shelf technology. Some of it is even do-it-yourself.”³⁰ If Somalia, a sovereign state member of the UN vulnerable to conflict or collapse, can possess military drones,³¹ so can non-state actors, terrorists, revolutionaries, or small groups of activists that are hostile to a state. We might see this scenario as a way to save lives, perhaps because machines would replace living soldiers, and we don’t have emotions over the destruction of a machine or care about damage, other than it might spike a cost in taxes. Doesn’t that put war on the platform of making war acceptably entertaining?

Outsourcing the military

I see an immanent future with commanders, thousands of miles from the attack zone, in limited physical danger being hired by multinational corporations in the business of building android forces for hire. Why not? Russia had its Wagner Group, a shadowy band of hired fighters, and the United States has its Academi (formerly Blackwater) and ArmorGroup (accused of wasteful practices and fraudulent hiring) that will eventually have android armies operating beyond laws and treaties. With progressions in chip technology that permit the automation of almost every industrial product, from electric toothbrushes to military hardware, future wars could be fought as entertainment (think lions and gladiators in the Coliseum) on reality primetime TV camera-captured by robots and narrated remotely, all paid for by advertisers. Tune in for Sunday Night War, with ceasefires during weekdays. Would that be legal? So far, yes, at least in the US, which is far behind in establishing rules for drone warfare. And so far, international law has nothing in its statute books about the use of drones or robotic ground troops. Imagine the profits that drone companies could make to wage war on one country paid for by another. All it takes is money, not the lives of the aggressor. If governments could outsource prison ownership, why not outsource android-wars to save body bags?

Private armies are not new. Carthage employed them against Rome in the First Punic War in the early 3^rd century BC., and they probably go back much further than even the epic wars brought to life by the Homeric poets. During the Middle Ages, especially in the Hundred Years War (1337–1453), mercenaries were legitimate essential soldiers fighting outside the authoritative control of the princes or local lords of warring states. Today, they are no different from clandestine cartels without detectible links to a government. Future wars will become outsourced so that corporations can employ warriors to invade or defend, neither knowing nor caring what they are doing. They will become athletic teams to cheer, equipped with guns, bombs, tanks, and fighter jets. Those private players will have a supplying industry of arms dealers willing to sell to anyone as they lobby to convince governments to start wars they say they can win, even when they know they can’t. Private fighters were always a problem in the mercenary system because they often joined for the money and, therefore, could switch employment in the direction of any force that had power and money. They had no attachment to an ideology and were prone to keep or steal weapons to be sold or used to pilfer unsecured villages.

Today’s private armies are different yet concerning. They, and even private citizens, have no sovereign immunities and are bound by customary law and the Geneva Conventions, yet there are human and geopolitical consequences.³²Under the Rome Statute, a treaty-based statute of humanitarian laws, offenders of war crimes, including private individuals, could be tried, and sentenced to many years in jail. But without state-run disciplinary codes and conduct, private armies could work for anyone if they do not attack their home state. We witness that behaviour in Africa, where the UN identified individual mercenary groups moving from conflict to conflict.³³

One concern for the future of private armies is the multinational corporations that could replace human fighters with androids, which could make it easier to use force without empathic recognition of non-combatants. Moreover, for states that care about public opinion (even authoritative states do) private armies make going to war more acceptable since citizens care less about losing a private fighter, especially a foreign one, than they do about a state soldier.³⁴ Strangely, though, the citizenry might care more about the loss or damage of robotic weapons than about a private fighter because weaponry is paid for by the taxes they pay.

Cyber vigilantes and the weaponisation of everything

Future wars will be far more autonomous than they are today. That is a concern, but alongside it is cyberwar distortion machines still in their newborn operating stages. We now have amplified disinformation ramblings invading democratic countries to turn propaganda on public policy, not with lethal weapons, but rather by creating culture wars of division and false realities to sway voters in directions that benefit the cyberwarrior whose mission is to support or oppose a military conflict.

What will happen when civilians working from their home countries with civilian wherewithal in digital operations get involved in armed conflicts with other countries using digital technology to influence public opinion? They may be concerned individuals, loyal refugees, patriotic hackers, or professional cyberwar dealers who can, for whatever curiously influenced reason, sabotage economies, hospitals, power stations, and government services, and spread false information to encourage political extremes to confuse voters ready to cast their ballots in elections.³⁵

Cyberwars are not designed for killing but rather intended to win support for disputes that are likely to either start or end as military conflicts. Disinformation wars are not new, though we tend to think that all forgotten history is new. For hundreds of years, we have had flashpoints of conspiracies supported by polarising disinformation with the ultimate purpose of voiding factual trust to rock the existing state of affairs. With new social media tools, disinformation wars can now have geopolitical adversarial foot-soldiers without boots, possibly in pajamas, sitting anywhere in the world at computers providing distrust, uncertainty, fear, and chaos, exploiting belief in conspiracies needed for political division. TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram, electronic war machines with instantly visible battle actions, can have an acute effect on how wars appear. Without grasping the realities of war, they effectively show viral images to win hearts and minds in popular support that empowers one side. It is a relatively new media suitably recognised as electronic warfare.

We know that once fake information comes to social media it tends to run through an echo chamber of multiplying promotion. That’s how social media news works. Across the globe, we are seeing deep divisions injected with peculiar uncertainty. I say that as a euphemism lacking any other way to call it. In truth, the bot machines offer no truth by what Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews of The RAND Corporation rightly called a “firehose of falsehoods” as a description of Russian propaganda combining “a very large number of communications and disregard for the truth.”³⁶ There is more than that whooshing through firehoses, and it is not a disregard but rather a barrage of disinformation that can topple democratic governments. Firehoses of falsehoods have no defensive valves. Faucets could be closed, but it is too late by the time that happens. Others go on. They are the future weapons against democracies. Of the 195 member states of the United Nations, more than 64 are having elections in 2024. All are under attack by Chinese, Russian, and Iranian bots using heavy-duty disinformation tactics that could sway opinion to benefit hopeful authoritarians and crush the rule of law through constitutional democracies. It is another kind of war. One that does not necessarily kill, at least not before some tyrannical winner surfaces to public aftershocks.

Disinformation wars coming from hackers are not so benign as to be ignored. They can start wars, support wars, or end wars. Russian paid bots have been feeding Kremlin disinformation to the Americas and Western Europe since the 2016 US election to sway support for a presidential candidate who could ignore a planned invasion of Ukraine or abandon NATO. It almost worked in 2020. Who knows if it will work this year? We know that Russian and Chinese state-directed bots have been spreading false narratives, promoting conspiracy theories, and posting online AI-made fake images of mock candidates to mess with the US presidential election this coming November.³⁷ Social media anti-Ukraine cheerleading pro-Russia propaganda has already been parroted to influential broadcasters to be relayed by US members of Congress on the House floor. When one country hires online hacker warriors to meddle in another’s election to target candidates and parties, it might not be warfare the way we know it; it does, though, have an enormous influence on the potential outcome of present and future wars. Fortunately, international humanitarian law still holds strict rules prosecutable as war crimes because cybernetic space has the same international laws as the space we live in. Cyberspace is not a lawless space.

Future wars will follow a marked change in direction, from war plans designed to kill combatants with autonomously launched incendiary weapons to cyberart strategies that strike at the political bases and economic substructures of enemy states.³⁸Cyberwars rely on accelerating technical advances that will transform weaponry supporting military conflicts while being more accessible to hackers who profit from extremist attacks, criminal activity, and information dealing. If cyberwars between enemy states diminish the number of casualties, there still will be dealers itching for profits. Though the number of global war-related deaths has indeed been declining since the last world war ended, that number is far too high for a civilised world.³⁹ There is a highly disturbing likelihood that future warfare tactics could involve crippling satellites in space by injecting malware to muddle Global Positioning Systems, takeovers of nuclear plants, power structures, or hospitals, raising the odds of there being more deaths; however, if a new world of cyberarts brings war evolution mechanics to new cyberbattle fields where lethal weapons are obsolete and where countermeasures are in place, then perhaps we will not continue to kill in such large numbers. There might still be wars, but not the protracted ones known to those living in the first half of the twenty-first century.⁴⁰

Mathematical models can theoretically estimate the odds of one country winning over another in battle. Unfortunately, even the best models rely on many hidden variables and educated guesses of the number of troops deployed, the qualities of each side’s artillery, and the number and quality of autonomous machines without souls, no fear of death, or mothers waiting at home. With enough information, mathematics can make some reasonably accurate predictions. But even the most sophisticated models do not guarantee correct better-than-even odds. And they certainly cannot predict, with any moderate precision, the number of real people who will die.

A decade from now

As I said, some countries, especially the US and its allies, will be able to wage a completely autonomous small-scale war by 2035. Soon after, those countries that can afford them will be buying or building uncrewed warships, fighter jets, submarines, swarms of drones, and even infantry fighting vehicles making grave decisions, all with no human operators. The next thirty years of AI technology behind semi-autonomous weaponry is accelerating towards fully proficient know-how in building self-governing tools of war that we may be unprepared for. The potential is not an existential threat. Rather, it breaks morals that define humanity. Elinor Sloan puts it this way in the epigraph of this article: “[I]t is not clear,” she writes, “whether it would ever be ethical for a machine to kill a human.” Are we prepared to risk the degradation of morality by deploying fully independent intelligent machines on battlefields?

It is hard to answer that question since all fortunes of war are unpredictable. Wars could be robots-on-robots. Or…, or…, OR…, could there possibly be an altogether different unexpected scenario? All this noise of autonomous warfare strikes at the insensitivity to moral codes and the foolishness of supporting wars without benefits for either side, benefits other than possible arms sales. Yet — I say partly as a whim, but with seriousness — as wars become more nonsensically autonomous, they may bring us to a time when wars become overwhelmingly wasteful and impractical. There may then be a time of no more international wars. Is it possible to imagine an end to wars? Whoa!!!, you say, but wouldn’t that be wonderful? Yes! That leaves syndicated crime, intranational wars, terrorism, and barbarisms launched by a few of those rogue war-mongering narcissistic failing leaders. They are altogether other matters.

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About the Author

Joseph Mazur is an Emeritus Professor of Mathematics at Emerson College’s Marlboro Institute for Liberal Arts & Interdisciplinary Studies. He is a recipient of fellowships from the Guggenheim, Bogliasco, and Rockefeller Foundations, and the author of eight acclaimed popular nonfiction books. His latest book is The Clock Mirage: Our Myth of Measured Time (Yale).

References:

Braun, William G. Prof.; von Hlatky, Stéfanie Dr.; and Nossal, Kim Richard Dr., “Robotics and Military Operations” (2018). Monographs, Books, and Publications. 20. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/399/
I advise seeing the astounding animated essay, “How drone combat in Ukraine is changing warfare,” published on March 26, 2024, in Reuters by Mariano Zafra, Max Huder, Anurag Rao, and Sudev Kiyada. See: https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES/dwpkeyjwkpm/
Steve Mills, The Dawn of the Drone: From the Back-Room Boys of World War One (Oxford: Casemate, 2019) 2.
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA568455.pdf
The number of civilian casualties in WWI is between 6 and 13 million, close to 47% of all deaths due to the war.
W. Singer, Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century (New York: Penguin, 2009) 116.
If you want to know almost all there is to know about future wars and have more time to learn about war, I see no easy way other than to read Peter Warren Singer’s awesome book, Wired For War.
United States Air Force, USAF Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan 2009-2047, 27.
https://www.avinc.com/tms/switchblade-600
https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N21/037/72/PDF/N2103772.pdf?OpenElement
https://lieber.westpoint.edu/kargu-2-autonomous-attack-drone-legal-ethical/
https://www.eglin.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3480769/ai-successfully-pilots-xq-58-aircraft-at-eglin/
https://hbr.org/2024/01/leading-in-a-world-where-ai-wields-power-of-its-own
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/europe/britain-air-defense-laser-dragonfire-intl-hnk-ml?cid=ios_app
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/iran-israel-attack-drones-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app
US Air Force, “RQ-4 Global Hawk,” Air Force Fact Sheets, 16 October 2008, http://www.af.mil/ AboutUs/FactSheets/Display/tabid/224/Article/104516/rq-4-global-hawk.aspx (accessed 1 March 2014).
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA612259.pdf
Ibid, Singer, p. 117.
Hew Strachan & Sibylle Scheipers (Eds) The Changing Character of War (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011) 340.
Singer. p 119.
Ibid, Braun.
https://www.robotictechnologyinc.com/images/upload/file/Overview%20Of%20EATR%20Project%20Brief%206%20April%2009.pdf
https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/_/robots-at-war-the-new-battlefield
https://www.icrc.org/en/document/what-you-need-know-about-autonomous-weapons
Hellström, T. On the moral responsibility of military robots. Ethics Inf Technol 15, 99–107 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-012-9301-2
https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=phil_fac
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-ground-drones-destroy-russian-trenches-2024-4?amp
Danial H. Wilson, How to Survive a Robot Uprising: Tips on Defending Yourself Against the Coming Rebellion (New York: Bloomsbury, 2005) 14.
https://www.usna.edu/Ethics/_files/documents/PWSinger.pdf
https://fundforpeace.org/
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml
Sarah Percy, “The United Nations Security Council and the use of private force”, Vaughan Lowe et al. (eds.) The United Nations Security Council and war (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 229.
Sarah Percy, “The Changing Character oif Private Force”, Hew Strachan & Sibylle Scheipers (Eds.) The Changing Character of War (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011) 275.
https://harvardnsj.org/volumes/vol1/schmitt/
Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews (2016). “Russia’s ‘Firehose of Falsehood’ Propaganda Model.” RAND Corporation. Doi:10.7249/PE198.https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
Tiffany Hsu, Steven Myers, “China’s Advancing Evidence to Influence the U.S. Election,” New York Times, Tuesday, April 2, 2024.
https://worldfinancialreview.com/category/columns/joseph-mazur/
https://www.un.org/en/un75/new-era-conflict-and-violence
Sarantakes, Nicholas Evan (2023) “The Future-War Literature of the Reagan Era—Winning World War III in Fiction,” Naval War College Review: Vol. 76: No. 3, https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol76/iss3/7
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-chinaotech-drones/

Best SEO Agency in Taiwan: Increase Your Website Traffic

July 2, 2024

A solid internet presence is essential for every firm these days, particularly for small business owners in Taiwan or anywhere. Increasing competition, it is necessary to stand out and draw in potential clients. Search Engine Optimization, or SEO is useful in this situation. By optimizing website for search engines, you can improve website visibility, drive more activity, and ultimately increase your sales by working with an SEO company.

Why SEO Matters for Business

SEO is improving website position on search engine results pages (SERPs) to increase natural (non-paid) traffic. Here are some reasons why SEO is useful for business:

1. Increase Visibility and Brand Awareness

When your site positions higher on search engines, it becomes more visible to potential clients. Most clients don’t scroll past the first page of search results, so showing up on first page is important. An experienced SEO organization in Taiwan can help you to get this by optimizing your site for important keywords and improving overall structure site.

2. Higher Quality Traffic

SEO targets clients who are effectively looking for items or administrations related to your business. This means the activity driven to your site through SEO is more likely to convert into clients. Unlike conventional advertising, which targets a wide audience, SEO centers on attracting clients who are already interested in what you offer.

3. Cost-effective Advertising

AS SEO is a more affordable kind of marketing when it comes to paid advertising. Although there is a time and resource investment involved, the long-term advantages greatly exceed the disadvantages. After your website starts to rank highly, you’ll start to receive organic traffic and won’t need to keep spending money on advertising.

How to Begin Using SEO

It can be difficult to begin your SEO adventure, but with the correct strategy, you can observe significant improvements in the functionality of your website. To assist you in getting started, consider these steps:

1. Conduct a Website Audit

Before making any changes, it’s fundamental to get it where your site currently stands. A comprehensive review will recognize any technical issues, such as broken links, slow page load times, and mobile responsiveness. Numerous SEO companies offer site audit administrations to help you pinpoint areas for improvement.

2. Keyword Research

Keyword research is basis of any effective SEO technique. Distinguish the keywords and phrases that potential clients are utilizing to look for particular items or services. Tools like Google Keyword Planner and SEMrush can help you find important keywords with high search volume and low competition. Content is king. Regularly creating informative, high-quality articles can help draw in and retain readers. Remember to use target keywords naturally and avoid stuffing.

3. Optimize On-Page Elements

This includes updating meta titles and descriptions, utilizing header labels (H1, H2, H3) to structure website content, and incorporating keywords naturally throughout content. Furthermore, guarantee images have alt text and URLs are clean and descriptive.

5. Build Backlinks

An important component of search engine results is backlinks or inbound links from other websites. Make an effort to build a network of high-quality backlinks by contacting prominent members of the industry, contributing guest posts, and listing your company in internet directories. To increase the authority of your website, a smart link-building strategy can be carried out with assistance from an expert SEO service.

Partnering with an SEO Agency in Taiwan

While it’s possible to implement SEO techniques on your own, collaborating with a proficient SEO company can give significant advantages. An experienced organization has the skill and resources to create and execute a comprehensive SEO plan tailored to your business needs. They can help you remain up-to-date with the most recent SEO trends and guarantee your site follows to best practices.

At GeniusHub, we specialize in helping little businesses in Taiwan develop their online presence through compelling SEO procedures. Our team of experts will collaborate closely with you to comprehend your goals and develop a personalized plan aimed at boosting website traffic and search engine rankings.

Summary

Any Taiwan small company owner hoping to boost their internet presence and attract more customers would be wise to invest in SEO. By collaborating with an expert SEO organization, you can use the power of SEO to drive high-quality activity to your site, upgrade your brand’s visibility, and ultimately boost your sales. Get begun nowadays and observe your business flourish in the advanced landscape.

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What Are the Best Entry Points for the Stock Market in India?

July 1, 2024

Introduction

Investing in stocks is not just about buying and selling stocks. In order to get profit from your investments you must understand the stock market and time your investments. But what does this exactly mean? And how can one know the best entry or exit points for the stock market?

This blog will discuss the importance of timing the market and the various ways to identify the best entry points for the stock market in India.

Market Cycles and Timing

To identify the best entry points for a particular stock, you must first understand the market cycles to time the market.

A market cycle is the pattern of phases that an economy typically goes through. This cycle includes four phases of market growth and decline.

Depending on the market cycles, there are two types of market conditions: the bear market and the bull market.

Bear Market: This term refers to the decline of the market. During this period, share prices continuously drop, which may also result in a downward spiral. It can also be a result of low economic growth or some major crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bull Market: This term refers to the rise of the market. It indicates that the economic conditions are favourable, resulting in stock prices going up. Additionally, it becomes an indication of how the investors are feeling about the current market cycle.

A bull market can potentially give you profit and good returns. On the other hand, a bear market can result in low prices, thereby turning your portfolio in red. However, both these conditions can be great opportunities to invest in the market. Since prices are low during a bear market, it becomes a great opportunity to enter the market.

Economic Indicators

It is crucial to know about the current economic and financial conditions before entering the market. Economic indicators can help you assess the economy at large, predict future trends, and make informed decisions.

Some of the key economic indicators are:

Leading Indicators: These help you understand future market trends and economic activity. Examples: the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the money supply, yield curves, etc.
Lagging Indicators: These indicators are used after an event has happened. They also help confirm the predicted trends and study previous statistics. Examples: the unemployment rate and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Coincident Indicators: These indicators give you real-time updates and change with changing economic conditions. They often tell us about the current state of the economy. Examples: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal income, etc.

Expert Advice

Identifying the best entry points for the stock market with the help of experts is crucial. Experts offer key indicators and metrics to gain knowledge across various renowned platforms. The reports of these indicators are often broken down into explanations helping investors understand the crucial aspects of trading and investing.

Therefore, before you enter a market, make sure that you read expert advice, detailed explanations and analyses to attain valuable insights, reduce risks or losses, and make a well-informed decision.

Conclusion

Identifying entry points into the stock market is crucial to increase your profits. To get the timing right, learn about market cycles and terms like bear market and bull market and what they indicate.

You can also understand the various economic indicators that give us key details about current and future economic conditions. You can time the market well with the help of an expert and using a reliable online trading platform.

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A Ground-Breaking Railway: Is the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway a Game-Changer for Indonesia?

July 1, 2024

Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train on Halim station, Indonesia.

By Xiangming Chen, Michael Hutahaean, and Irvin Nathaniel Tobing

With less than 25 countries owning high-speed rail services in the world, the development of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR reflects Indonesia’s aspiration to become a powerful middle-income country. Here is a recap of the history, concerns, challenges and benefits that marked this project.

I. Introduction

Over 2.5 million passengers rode the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail (HSR) from its commercial launch on 17 October 2023 to 17 April 2024, averaging around 415,000 a month and 14,000 a day for the six months, with a peak travel day of 21,537 passengers.¹ These figures may not be that impressive for a sprawling and fragmented island nation of over 275 million people. However, they are a highly meaningful harbinger of Indonesia’s aspiration to become a powerful middle-income country through a priority commitment to upgrading its lagged infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure.

The HSR or “Whoosh,” which means fast, efficient, and reliable, as announced by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, marks and heralds a huge leap forward in the modernisation of Indonesia’s transportation. The 142-km-long high-speed line, connecting Indonesia’s capital city, Jakarta, and the fourth largest city, Bandung, the capital of West Java, shortens travel time between the two hubs from over three hours to around 45 minutes, alleviating Indonesia’s biggest inter-city mobility bottleneck which incurs economic costs in billions of rupiah every year. The rail line features four strategically located stations, and the distances between these stations have been meticulously planned to ensure optimal coverage and connectivity. The final cost of this ambitious project is estimated at US$7.2 billion,² underscoring its significant investment in enhancing regional mobility and economic development.

This monumental project, developed in collaboration with China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013, was managed by a consortium of Indonesian state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that consist of major local companies, namely PT Wijaya Karya (Wika), PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI), PT Jasa Marga (toll-road builder), and the plantation company of PT Perkebunan Nusantara VIII. The project also involved a significant partnership with Beijing Yawan HSR Co Ltd, a consortium of Chinese state-owned enterprises, including China Railway International Co. Ltd (a subsidiary of China State Railway Group Co.), CRRC Corporation Limited, China Railway Group Limited (CREC), Sinohydro Corporation Limited (a subsidiary of Power Construction Corporation of China), and China Railway Signal and Communication Corporation (CRSC).³

The development of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR represents the next leap in Indonesia’s train development journey, reflecting the nation’s aspirations for a modern and efficient high-speed railway system. The project, which initially saw competing bids from Japan and China, symbolises Indonesia’s strategic engagement with international partners to enhance its infrastructure. Japan’s offer of a 40-year loan at an interest rate of 0.1%⁴ and China’s counteroffer of a US$5.5 billion loan for a 50-year tenure at 2% interest underscored the project’s geopolitical and economic significance.⁵ Ultimately, the Indonesian government’s selection of China over Japan was influenced by financial and technical considerations, marking a significant milestone in the country’s infrastructure development ambitions.

The HSR’s impact and significance spread beyond being just a transformative transport artery. China has touted it as the first of its kind infrastructural system that China built overseas with its integrated system of design, engineering, equipment, technology, and standards through the BRI, Indonesia prides itself on hosting the HSR as the first train system of its kind in Southeast Asia. Both China and Indonesia see the HSR as inspiring more robust and extensive bilateral economic cooperation. This article offers a general and grounded overview of the historical backdrop, construction-operational issues, and emerging prospects of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR as a necessary baseline account that can animate more in-depth research in the future.

II. Leading up to the HSR

Indonesia’s Jakarta-Bandung HSR project stands as a landmark achievement in the nation’s transport infrastructure. It marks a significant leap forward, reflecting Indonesia’s aspirations for modernisation and connectivity. Initiated in 2008 with studies focused on a route extending to Surabaya, it shifted toward the shorter Jakarta-Bandung section after feasibility studies by the Indonesian government and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) highlighted its viability.⁶ Launched under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and completed in 2023 during President Joko Widodo’s administration, the project underscores Indonesia’s capabilities in executing large-scale infrastructure projects.

The HSR project is a key development in ASEAN, solidifying Indonesia’s position as one of the few nations with a high-speed rail system. The operation of the KCIC400AF train, one of the fastest train types in the world and a high-speed variant from China’s CRRC capable of reaching speeds up to 350 km/h, underscores Indonesia’s entry into an exclusive global club. As of 2022, data from the International Union of Railways indicates that only 20 countries worldwide have high-speed rail services, representing a mere 10.3% of the United Nations-recognised countries. This achievement both elevates Indonesia’s status on the international stage and demonstrates its significant effort to enhance regional mobility and economic development.⁷

The project’s journey from inception involved significant leadership and strategic negotiations, reflecting a dynamic evolution from past challenges within Indonesia’s rail system. Before 2009, the railway system management faced critical issues such as ticket scalping and unsafe practices, which were transformed under the leadership of Ignasius Jonan, the then Director of PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI). Jonan introduced a series of reforms aimed at improving service quality and safety. These reforms included barring street vendors from stations, introducing air conditioning in economy-class cars, enforcing online ticketing, and preventing passengers from climbing atop trains. Jonan’s leadership effectively addressed the systemic issues facing KAI, setting a turning point and new railway service and management standards in Indonesia.⁸

Jonan’s reforms set the stage for more ambitious transportation projects to address Indonesia’s growing mobility needs. The Jakarta-Bandung HSR is a prime example of these efforts. Additionally, the expansion of the Greater Jakarta Commuter Rail, the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system in Jakarta in 2019, and the Light Rail Transit (LRT) have transformed rail commuting in Jakarta by providing efficient alternatives to private vehicles. This greatly helps the already in-place Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, which has dedicated lanes for buses, to ensure capacity and connectivity.

The transition from the chaotic management system of the past to the transformative leadership of Ignasius Jonan and eventually to the development of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR illustrates the dynamic evolution of Indonesia’s railway system. This journey highlights the importance of effective leadership, strategic planning, and international cooperation in advancing national infrastructure projects, setting the stage for a more connected and prosperous future for Indonesia’s rail transportation.

rail — Workers at the construction site of Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway at Tegalluar Station.

III. Construction and Operational Dynamics

The Construction Phase

During the construction phase, a primary concern was prioritising resources. A scholar from Bandung Institute of Technology argued that the Indonesian government should focus on enhancing existing railway services and infrastructure rather than investing heavily in the high-speed rail project. Since none of the intercity railways are electrified, they can serve low speeds of only up to 120 km/hour. However, this is a common debate on spending less money to upgrade an existing system or building a new one.⁹

Engineers encountered significant challenges while constructing Tunnel 2, located in a clay shale area where the soil easily disintegrates upon exposure to air and water. This project marked the first successful construction in such challenging conditions. The success was facilitated by crucial technology and knowledge transfers between Chinese tunnel and grouting experts and local geotechnical specialists, including those from the Bandung Institute of Technology. This collaboration highlighted the importance of knowledge sharing in advancing construction practices in Indonesia.¹⁰

Financial sustainability emerged as a significant challenge, highlighted by a considerable cost overrun of US$1.2 billion. The project’s overall cost, substantially higher than that of building conventional toll roads, raised questions about its economic viability. This sparked concerns regarding the project’s financial sustainability, especially compared to more traditional infrastructure investments like toll roads, which generally require lower capital investments. A comprehensive funding approach to address these concerns was adopted, involving both Indonesian and Chinese stakeholders. The strategy includes significant loans from China Development Bank totaling US$448 million (approximately IDR 6.99 trillion), complemented by capital injections from a consortium of companies from China, Beijing Yawan HSR Co Ltd (approximately IDR 8.4 trillion), and Indonesia’s state equity participation (approximately IDR 3.2 trillion). This strategic funding approach demonstrates a bilateral commitment to ensuring the project’s financial stability and long-term success.¹¹

Environmental and social concerns have become increasingly significant with the HSR project, particularly during its construction phase. This phase involves substantial land acquisition, potentially disrupting local ecosystems and adversely affecting nearby communities.

The Jakarta-Bandung HSR, like the China-Laos Railway (CLR), illustrates potential financial risks linked to large-scale infrastructure projects financed by China. Both projects are part of the BRI and have incurred significant debt due to heavy reliance on Chinese loans. Regarding the CLR, Laos faced substantial debt levels, with the project cost estimated at around US$6 billion, a significant portion of the country’s GDP. Much like Indonesia, Laos relied heavily on Chinese loans for the railway, which exacerbated the country’s debt situation. However, the loan for building the Jakarta-Bandung HSR is a much smaller share of Indonesia’s GDP than the CLR’s financing relative to Laos’ GDP. Nevertheless, these expensive projects raise alarms about their long-term sustainability, as they require careful financial management to ensure that they do not burden the host country’s economy or sovereignty.

Environmental and social concerns have become increasingly significant with the HSR project, particularly during its construction phase. This phase involves substantial land acquisition, potentially disrupting local ecosystems and adversely affecting nearby communities. The West Java chapter of the environmental organisation Wahana Lingkungan Indonesia (WALHI) has reported 23 cases directly related to the HSR project, encompassing environmental issues, licensing problems, social impacts, and workplace accidents. A notable incident occurred during the construction of Tunnel 11 in October 2019, where the use of blasting methods led to extended ground cracks and caused severe damage to dozens of homes.¹² Additionally, workers’ improper disposal of excavated soil on streets has contaminated water sources and compromised drainage systems, escalating the risk of floods and landslides in the area.¹³

Beyond environmental impacts, the Jakarta-Bandung HSR project has raised significant social concerns, particularly highlighted by The West Java chapter of WALHI documentation of agricultural disruption. Since August 2019, in Depok Village, Purwakarta Regency, over a dozen hectares of productive rice fields owned by 16 local residents have been converted into disposal sites for excavated soil from the HSR construction.¹⁴ This conversion has rendered the fields unproductive, eliminating a vital source of livelihood for these farmers and underscoring the need for more balanced infrastructure development that safeguards environmental integrity and community welfare. The combination of these environmental and social issues underlines the necessity for a more comprehensive and inclusive approach to large-scale infrastructure projects, ensuring that environmental integrity and community welfare are preserved.

Meanwhile, engineers faced significant logistical challenges while laying tracks for the Jakarta-Bandung HSR, particularly using 50-meter-long rail modules imported from China. These rails were welded into 500-meter sections at the Tegalluar depot, marking the first export of China’s high-speed special rails. This method ensured the railway’s smooth operation by minimising the number of welding points along the track. Initially, this approach was met with scepticism from the Indonesia Railway Company due to a lack of experience in transporting and laying rails longer than 25 meters. However, Chinese engineers presented a comprehensive solution by importing the rails by sea from the Port of Qingdao and selecting Cilacap Port as the entry point. The Chinese team upgraded the facilities to accommodate the imports because the port was not equipped to handle 50-meter rail modules. The team then conducted local trials to ensure the viability of the operation. The project marks a significant revolution in Indonesia’s rail construction methods.

The Operational Phase

Several challenges have occurred as the project transitions into the operational phase. These include electricity blackouts attributed to reliance on a single transmission source, delays and capacity limitations in feeder train services, and an inefficient refund system. Moreover, operational problems, such as signal difficulties in critical sections of the rail line, including industrial forests and tunnels, necessitate technological solutions, such as the enhancement of Wi-Fi networks, to ensure reliability and safety.¹⁵ These operational issues are compounded by concerns over social equity, with fears that the HSR might primarily benefit wealthier segments of society who can afford the relatively high-ticket prices, potentially exacerbating existing social inequalities. In addition, the feeder trains’ limited seating capacity of 200 passengers is incompatible with the HSR’s capacity of 601 passengers.

After over six months of operations, the PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) implemented effective solutions to address initial challenges. The frequency of blackouts has significantly decreased, enhancing the reliability of travel services. Additionally, the KCIC has revamped its refund system, transitioning from a station-only refund process to an online platform. This change facilitates smoother transactions for customers who purchase tickets via the KCIC app. Despite the feeder train’s lower capacity compared to the high-speed rail, customer feedback indicates that issues regarding boarding have been minimal.

IV. Making Differences

Economic Transformation through Direct and Indirect Benefits

The Jakarta-Bandung HSR is poised to catalyse an economic transformation in Indonesia through a multitude of direct and indirect benefits. At the heart of this transformation is the significant job creation attributed to the project’s construction and operational phases, which is expected to lead to a marked decrease in regional unemployment rates. In an earlier short article, we reported figures from China Railway, the HSR’s main builder, that the HSR has created around 51,000 jobs, led to a cumulative purchase of local materials and inputs worth US$5.1 billion, and provided technical training for around 45,000 Indonesian workers.¹⁶

The HSR project is a catalyst for growth across several sectors, including steel, construction, and technology, driven by increased demand for materials and expertise.

Furthermore, the HSR project is a catalyst for growth across several sectors, including steel, construction, and technology, driven by increased demand for materials and expertise. This economic ripple effect underscores the project’s role in boosting regional economic vitality. By improving accessibility, the HSR stimulates business expansion along its route and fosters the development of new economic zones, diversifying the economic landscape with boosts in tourism and hospitality services. The anticipated ease in business travel and the allure of investments along the corridor will likely establish new industrial and commercial centres, creating more job opportunities and fostering regional economic development. According to the American Public Transport Association (APTA), such high-speed rail services can significantly amplify economic activity, suggesting that every dollar invested returns up to four dollars in economic benefits through enhanced connectivity of economic centres.¹⁷ This efficiency stems from the effective connection of economic centres, which enhances productivity and economic dynamism, painting a promising future for the project’s impact on the regional economy.

This transformation is also evident in the appreciating property values around the HSR stations, which signals an increased demand for residential and commercial properties. According to 99 Group Indonesia, the Jakarta-Bandung HSR significantly influences property values in 14 sub-districts linked to its four stations — Halim, Karawang, Padalarang, and Tegalluar (see map). Areas such as Jatinegara, Kramatjati, and Duren Sawit have seen a substantial rise in residential demand, with spikes of 26.2% near Halim and 34.4% around Tegalluar, as recorded in the first half of 2023. This trend aligns with the KCJB’s operational goals for October 2023 and regional Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) development, marking a shift in urban living and business operation dynamics.¹⁸ The HSR project goes beyond simply connecting cities. It can potentially reshape the urban landscape into a network of interconnected, yet distinct, economic and residential zones. This could significantly enhance quality of life and economic efficiency by reducing traffic congestion on highways, similar to the experience in China with its vast high-speed rail network.

Another indirect yet significant benefit of high-speed rail is the reduction in carbon emissions. The previous Jakarta-Bandung route, serviced by the Argo Parahyangan, relied on diesel locomotives — a method known for its substantial carbon footprint. In contrast, the electrified HSR not only modernises travel between these two major cities but does so in a fraction of the time, taking only one-sixth the duration to reach Bandung. This modernisation reduces the amount of fuel used per trip, thereby decreasing overall carbon pollutants.

The Emerging Impact on Satellite Cities

map — Jakarta-Bandung HSR Route and Stations
(Source: Kereta Cepat Indonesia China, SPH Media.)

The introduction of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR heralds a transformative shift in urban and industrial development across key regions near Jakarta and Bandung. By drastically reducing travel times between these major cities, the HSR fosters the development of satellite cities and vibrant urban centres strategically positioned around HSR stations. These emerging areas are poised to benefit from modern planning principles that emphasise sustainable and accessible living spaces, enhancing the quality of urban life.

The HSR project goes beyond simply connecting cities. It can potentially reshape the urban landscape into a network of interconnected, yet distinct, economic and residential zones.

In particular, the HSR project is set to significantly impact the industrial landscape of Karawang, a crucial industrial hub known for its manufacturing plants and areas. The proximity of the HSR station to major industrial complexes such as Karawang International Industrial City, merely 8 km away, and Greenland International Industrial Center (GIIC), just 10.5 km distant, promises to streamline connectivity and logistical efficiency. This enhanced access is expected to transform regional commuting patterns and economic interactions, turning Karawang and similar areas into dynamic hubs of industrial activity and growth and catalysing a broader economic evolution in the region. In addition, the current construction of the Lakeside Commercial District near the new industrial area featuring an AEON mall will add an important commercial space and consumption outlet. This industrial-commercial combination will help Karawang attract professional and skilled workers to find jobs locally and move in as residents who can easily access the HSR, which will stimulate further land development and demographic growth.¹⁹

In response to the operational needs of this transformative project, the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (PUPR) is actively addressing the current challenges related to the development of essential toll road access to the Karawang station. This forthcoming toll road is expected to connect the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road directly with the station, seamlessly integrating it into the national transport network. The development of this toll road is crucial for maximising the HSR station’s utility and enhancing the rail service’s overall effectiveness,²⁰ thus further improving access to the HRS for potential new local workers and residents.

Outside Bandung sits the Padalarang station (see map). An area surrounded by agricultural land, Padalarang was once argued to be a top contender for rice commodities because of its large planting space. This illustrates that much of the area in Padalarang is underdeveloped for infrastructure, leaving the land unclaimed for large-scale agricultural production. However, since the launch of the HSR in 2023, the area has slowly seen a decrease in green spaces with non-vegetation and sparse vegetation land increasing by 5.3% and 4.51%, respectively. A prime example of this development is the planned Emeralda Resort, a 28-hectare (with future plans up to 300 hectares) residential and commercial development situated 25 minutes from the HSR station and 15 minutes from the Padalarang Toll Road. Other nearby facilities include an international school, IKEA, a water park, and other recreation centres. The lowest price point for a residential property starts at roughly Rp 8,333,333 (US$520)/m2, while the lowest property cost in Bandung averages Rp 3,694,444 (US$230)/m2. The developer intends to establish an enclave for individuals who can frequently use the HSR or comfortably maintain a car, and have the means to support the development’s commercial areas.²¹

Tegalluar, positioned near Bandung, is on the brink of significant urban growth and economic diversification thanks to the catalyst role of the HSR project. This development is expected to touch on various sectors beyond the industrial, including real estate, retail, tourism, and services. It is set to enhance the tourism appeal of Tegalluar and its environs, making them more accessible and inviting for both local and international visitors, thereby injecting fresh economic flows into the area. The Gedebage area, close to Tegalluar Station, is identified as a new development zone to accommodate overflow from the densely populated sectors of Bandung, aligning with Bandung Regency’s spatial plans. This expansion is encapsulated in the Detailed Spatial Plan (RDTR), which earmarks over 3,500 hectares for a mix of office spaces, industries, housing, tourist attractions, and a lake, covering the sub-districts of Bojongsoang, Cileunyi, Rancaekek, and Solokan Jeruk.²² This growth trajectory aims to bridge economic disparities between Jakarta and Bandung and to foster more balanced regional development.

In contrast to Karawang’s focus on industrial and logistical enhancements via the HSR, Tegalluar is poised to evolve into a dynamic and emerging urban development, showcasing a wide array of benefits across real estate, tourism, and emerging business sectors. The HSR project underpins cross-regional economic integration, streamlining trade, bolstering tourism connectivity, and distributing economic activities more evenly across the region. This strategic development is expected to forge a resilient, diversified economy well-equipped to navigate local and global economic challenges, marking a significant shift toward comprehensive regional growth and prosperity.

people — People wait in line to board the first high-speed train of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway of the day at Halim Station in Jakarta, Indonesia on 5 November 2023. https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/news/mediarusources/202311/t20231123_1362193.html

Enhanced Mobility and Connectivity

The Jakarta-Bandung HSR significantly enhances mobility and connectivity between these major cities, impacting broader regional travel patterns. By providing a fast, reliable, and efficient mode of transportation, the HSR shortens travel times and integrates seamlessly with existing and planned transportation networks. This integration is crucial for leveraging the full potential of the high-speed rail, extending its benefits beyond immediate users to influence overall commuting behaviours and elevate transportation standards in Indonesia. However, addressing first-mile and last-mile connectivity is essential to maximise these advantages. Ensuring smooth transitions to and from the HSR stations is pivotal to avoiding turning what should be a quick trip into a prolonged journey, thereby preserving the time-saving benefits of high-speed rail travel.

This strategic development is expected to forge a resilient, diversified economy well-equipped to navigate local and global economic challenges, marking a significant shift toward comprehensive regional growth and prosperity.

A Jakarta resident working in the city with family in Bandung can now travel by train nearly every weekend. She boarded the train at Jakarta’s Halim Station and arrived at Padalarang Station near Bandung before taking a short motorbike ride home. This trip saves her more than two hours compared to the conventional rail or bus. A Jakarta-based male business executive who frequently travels to Bandung takes the train for comfort and to avoid traffic congestion.²³ As travel volume increased, as expected, the HSR stimulated commercial activity at stations, including fast-food restaurants and convenience stores, to meet the needs of travellers. This multiplier effect is consistent and connected with the anticipated land and real estate appreciation of the areas around the HRS stations.

Halim station is connected to the Greater Jakarta Light Rail, Damri Bus, and Jakarta Bus Rapid Transit in Jakarta. Although the HSR is well connected, each transit line has its characteristics. Transferring to the Greater Jakarta LRT requires a 10-minute walk that can be cumbersome for those with heavy luggage. The Damri bus operates a low-frequency route between Soekarno-Hatta International Airport and the high-speed rail station every two hours from 7 AM to 9 PM. Additionally, the Jakarta Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) route 7W functions as a short-route feeder bus to larger BRT stations but only runs from 7 AM to 4 PM, limiting options for passengers arriving in the evening.

Padalarang and Tegalluar stations in Bandung have different levels of connectivity. Padalarang Station is where most people disembark when heading to Bandung City Center. The station offers a dedicated feeder train operated by PT KAI, which runs to and from Bandung Station and the Trans Metro Pasundan Bus route 2D. Meanwhile, Tegalluar Station relies on the Damri bus and the newly operational Bandung Raya Electric Bus to facilitate access to and from the station. These multimodal solutions in Bandung provide better integration, ensuring that the high-speed rail network efficiently serves its purpose of connecting major urban centres.

The comprehensive first-mile and last-mile solutions implemented in Jakarta and Bandung exemplify the commitment to ensuring high mobility and seamless connectivity within the high-speed rail network. These cities are addressing the critical gaps between the main transit hubs and final destinations by integrating various transportation modes such as buses, light rail transit, and dedicated feeder trains. Because of this, passengers can enjoy significantly reduced travel times and improved convenience, which is vital for the acceptance of high-speed rail in Indonesia.

The increased connectivity between the two regions provided by the Jakarta-Bandung HSR goes hand in hand with the expansion of urban areas that bring an increased demand for goods and services. New residents and businesses have primary needs, such as food and healthcare, as well as secondary demands, including furniture, electronics, and leisure products. This rise in consumption will increase logistics demands because more goods need to be transported to these growing areas. The increased volume of goods moving through these areas requires robust logistics and distribution networks, presenting opportunities for logistics companies to expand their services.

passenger — Photo below: Passengers aboard a high-speed train of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway take photos and videos of a display panel showing the train’s speed reaching 350 kilometers per hour in Indonesia, 5 November, 2023. https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/news/mediarusources/202311/t20231123_1362193.html

Private logistics companies will be interested in growing their operations in this region as they will tap into a new source of revenue. The local government will also have an increased incentive to help these companies with their investments. With increased investment in these regions, road connectivity and transportation networks will gradually increase in quality. These events will then lead to a more efficient logistics network and further economic growth in the region.

Other BRI-enabled Railway Projects in Southeast Asia

The flagship railway projects in Southeast Asia represent a significant leap in ASEAN’s capability to create a modern railway network. Other BRI rail infrastructure projects that are related to railways in Southeast Asia are the CLR and the Thailand high-speed rail. Envisioned to be docked with each other when the entire Thai rail line is expected to be completed around 2028, these projects are aimed at enhancing broader cross-border regional connectivity and economic cooperation.

The flagship railway projects in Southeast Asia represent a significant leap in ASEAN’s capability to create a modern railway network. Other BRI rail infrastructure projects that are related to railways in Southeast Asia are the CLR and the Thailand high-speed rail.

The CLR commenced operations in December 2021 as a collaboration between the two countries to
promote economic growth and forge closer ties. The railway spans from Kunming in China to Vientiane in Laos, spanning 422 km through difficult terrain through northern Laos. The project’s key feature is its capability to serve passengers through high-speed travel and cargo rail, maximising social and economic benefits. Through April 2024, over 6 million Laotians had taken the train. During the Laos Water Songkran Festival holidays (13-18 April) in 2024, almost 90,000 people rode the train, 41.8% more than the same period of 2023. By 13 April 2024, one year after the inauguration of the international through train, over 730 trains crossed the China-Laos border directly, carrying more than 700,000 passengers, including 180,000 international tourists from 87 countries and regions.²⁴

Along its route, the CLR is highlighted as a significant contributor to economic and social development. It is also regarded as a high-quality Belt and Road cooperation success story. The railway’s operation has turned Laos from a land-locked country into a land-linked hub in the Indo-China Peninsula, effectively overcoming development barriers and improving the livelihoods of the Lao people. The increase in foreign tourists visiting Laos, the surge in regional trade, and the creation of over 100,000 indirect jobs through progress in logistics, transportation, trade, commerce, and tourism, among other sectors, with 3,500 jobs for the railway itself, are all attributed to the success of this railway project.²⁵

Thailand is also planning to build a high–speed rail that extends from Bangkok to Nong Khai, just south of Laos, and then linked to the CLR across an upgraded bridge across the Mekong River. This project is similar to Indonesia’s HSR, which is also induced by the BRI and will focus mainly on passenger rail, although it will only run at 250km/hour compared to 350km/hour for the Jakarta-Bandung HSR and 160/hour for the CLR. The initial section will travel between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima and was initially planned to begin operations by 2028. However, the progress of construction in 2022 has only reached 15% and is below the 37% completion target.

These projects provide the two Southeast Asian nations with numerous economic benefits. The construction of the railways creates thousands of jobs during the construction and operational phases. The railway also promotes technology transfer and skill development because local workers gain experience working alongside experts from different nationalities. Moreover, the improved infrastructure attracts foreign investments and tourism, which promotes economic growth for the connected regions. If the eventually linked China-Laos-Thailand Railway extends south through Malaysia and then to Singapore as the southern terminus of the Pan-Asia Railway, envisioned back in the 1990s, we can imagine and expect even broader regional development benefits. The recently revived discussion between Malaysia and Singapore about their cross-border high-speed connection bodes well for the less certain but much longer and more effective rail transport corridor between Kunming and Singapore.

V. Navigating the Future

The Jakarta-Bandung HSR marks a significant milestone in Indonesia’s quest for modernisation and enhanced connectivity, signifying a bold leap toward redefining the country’s urban and economic landscapes. This ambitious initiative not only streamlines travel between two major cities but also catalyses broader urban development and economic expansion across its corridor. The project encompasses multifaceted challenges, including operational efficiency, financial sustainability, and social inclusivity, ensuring that its benefits are equitably distributed among all Indonesians. As Indonesia navigates the future, the success of the HSR hinges on overcoming these hurdles with a commitment to financial transparency and environmental safeguards, making the HSR accessible and affordable for all.

This endeavour is a testament to the Indonesian government’s dedication to revolutionising public transportation, envisioned as a precursor to comprehensive public transport reforms. The significant investment in the HSR aims to elevate public transportation standards in Indonesia, enhancing efficiency, safety, and reliability. Moreover, the HSR is a catalyst for sustainable development, embodying Indonesia’s aspirations for a more connected and prosperous future. This is part of a broader strategy under President Joko Widodo’s administration, which prioritises infrastructure for its economic and developmental benefits. The planned extension of high-speed rail connectivity to Surabaya as part of the Jakarta-Surabaya HSR project further illustrates this vision, promising to reduce travel times and spur economic growth across Java.

The continuation of these infrastructural commitments is expected under the forthcoming President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, who has demonstrated a keen interest in strengthening ties with China. His past interactions with the former Chinese ambassador, Xiao Qian, underline a strategic approach to attracting further Chinese investments, crucial for the country’s infrastructure sector.²⁶ Prabowo’s pre-inauguration visit to Beijing, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on 1 April 2024, points to the continued strong partnership between Indonesia and China. As Indonesia looks to the future, integrating such international partnerships and the ongoing development of key projects like the Jakarta-Bandung HSR highlight a forward-looking perspective that aims to redefine Indonesia’s socio-economic trajectory and set a precedent for future infrastructure endeavours in the country and more broadly in Southeast Asia.

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About the Authors

Xiangming Chen is Raether Distinguished Professor of Global Urban Studies and Sociology at Trinity College, Connecticut, a distinguished guest professor at Fudan University, Shanghai, and a Research Fellow affiliated with the Resilience Development Initiative (RDI) in Bandung, Indonesia. He has published extensively on globalisation and urbanisation with a recent research focus on China’s influence on global urbanisation and city-making through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). His books include As Borders Bend: Transnational Spaces on the Pacific Rim (2005) and The Belt and Road Initiative as Epochal Regionalisation (2020). He has also conducted policy research for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Michael Hutahaean is a Program Officer at the Resilience Development Initiative (RDI), a prominent think tank in Indonesia dedicated to fostering resilience building and sustainable development. He is deeply engaged in exploring sustainable urban planning, resilient infrastructure, and circular economy topics. In RDI, he has contributed to a diverse portfolio of research projects and consultancies, supported by prominent funders and organisations including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation (WCDI), and the Urban Studies Foundation (USF), among others. In RDI, he works closely with the Regional and Urban Planning (RUP) Cluster and the Water and Waste Management (WWM) Cluster.

Irvin Nathaniel Tobing is an Associate at the Resilience Development Initiative (RDI), a prominent think tank in Indonesia dedicated to fostering resilience building and sustainable development. His research in RDI is primarily conducted under the Regional and Urban Development (RUP) Cluster. He earned his Master’s degree in Transportation Engineering from the University of New South Wales, Australia, specialising in urban logistics. Previously, he worked as an analyst at a logistics startup. His research interests focus on optimising logistics operations in cities and studying the impact of infrastructure development on the economy.

Charting the Course: The Impact of IoT on Network Engineering

July 1, 2024

Smart city and communication network concept. 5G.

The tech industry is always growing and innovating at breakneck speed. Ultimately, the Internet of Things (IoT) stands out as a very transformative force, particularly in the field of network engineering.

It becomes evident that IoT is not merely an addition to existing technology but a complete overhaul that challenges the status quo. The integration of countless devices into the network fabric presents unique challenges and opens up new opportunities for innovation.

In this article, we will uncover how IoT is reshaping network engineering, focusing on the complexities and potential it brings to your professional life.

Revolutionizing Network Infrastructure with IoT

IoT devices range from simple household gadgets to sophisticated industrial tools, all of which require robust network support to function effectively. As these devices proliferate, the traditional types of network infrastructure are pushed to their limits.

The challenge for network engineers and other tech professionals is to innovate beyond conventional solutions and develop networks that can handle massive amounts of data and a high density of connections. Organizations able to do so will thrive in the future, while those that don’t will steadily be left behind.

This innovation involves deploying newer types of network infrastructure such as edge computing frameworks, which process data near the source to reduce latency and bandwidth usage.

Additionally, advancements in 5G technology are critical as they provide the speed and connectivity necessary to keep up with the vast data outputs of IoT devices. Adapting to these technologies requires a flexible mindset and a willingness to embrace new knowledge and skills.

Navigating IoT Security Challenges

One of the most pressing concerns in IoT network engineering is security. Each device added to the network introduces potential vulnerabilities that cyber threats could exploit.

The task before you involves not only securing each device but also ensuring the overall network is fortified against attacks.

This necessitates a comprehensive security strategy that includes regular updates to firmware and software, the use of sophisticated encryption methods, and the implementation of stringent access controls.

Moreover, the complexity of IoT networks makes them susceptible to unique threats like side-channel attacks or denial of service (DoS) attacks, which require specialized knowledge to mitigate.

Ensuring Reliability and Performance

The reliability of a network becomes even more critical when it supports IoT applications, where even minor disruptions can lead to significant issues. For example, in healthcare, a lapse in network performance can affect critical devices like heart monitors and insulin pumps.

As a network engineer or other kind of network professional, your role involves designing systems that are robust and capable of self-recovery in case of failure.

This reliability is achieved through redundant systems and automated failover processes that ensure network services continue without interruption. Performance optimization also plays a key role, with techniques like traffic shaping and load balancing becoming part of your routine tasks.

These strategies help manage the data flow efficiently, ensuring that the network can handle peak loads without compromising on speed or quality of service.

Leveraging Data for Advanced Network Management

IoT devices generate vast quantities of data that can be analyzed to improve network management. This data provides insights into user behavior, device performance, and potential security threats, which can be leveraged to enhance network efficiency and safety.

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in analyzing this data is becoming increasingly common. These technologies allow you to predict network failures, detect unusual patterns that may indicate a security breach, and automate routine network management tasks.

Embracing AI and ML not only improves the network’s performance but also frees up your time to focus on more strategic initiatives.

An Ever-Evolving Industry

Integrating IoT into network engineering is transforming the role of network engineers like you, expanding your responsibilities and requiring a new level of expertise. The challenges are significant, ranging from managing an unprecedented scale of network infrastructure to ensuring robust security against evolving threats.

However, the opportunities are equally compelling. IoT opens up new avenues for innovation in network design and management, driving efficiency and enabling smarter cities, industries, and homes.

Ultimately, you must remember that the key to success lies in continuous learning and adaptation. Staying abreast of the latest technological advancements and being proactive in implementing best practices will help you manage the challenges of today and prepare you for tomorrow’s opportunities.

While you’re on this journey, you are not just participating in the evolution of network engineering—you are shaping it. Indeed, the possibility of others adopting your strategies might induce greater change further down the line.

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Bridging Gaps: The Role of Robotics in Transforming Business Dynamics

July 1, 2024

A simple infographic depicting the dynamics of natural gas production in the world.

Today, more often than ever, robotics has emerged as a pivotal force, revolutionizing factory floors and boardroom strategies. This shift extends beyond mere automation; it introduces sophisticated capabilities that redefine operational efficiency, decision-making processes, and competitive strategy.

As a leader, understanding the implications of robotics, including the financial aspect, like mobile robot cost, is crucial for integrating these technologies effectively into your core business operations.

This article will delve into how robotics is reshaping various facets of business and why you should be at the forefront of this technological revolution.

Enhancing Operational Efficiency with Robotics

On the factory floor, robotics has long been synonymous with efficiency. Robots, known for their precision and endurance, can perform repetitive tasks at speeds and accuracies that humans cannot match.

However, the latest advancements extend these benefits further into adaptive manufacturing and complex problem-solving realms. Mobile robots, which are increasingly common in large-scale manufacturing environments, exemplify this shift.

They navigate large factory spaces autonomously, transporting materials between production lines without needing costly fixed conveyor systems.

The cost of mobile robots can vary significantly based on their capabilities and the complexity of the tasks they are designed to perform. Basic models might start from a few thousand dollars, while more advanced robots equipped with AI and the ability to perform multiple functions autonomously could cost tens of thousands.

Despite the initial investment, the return in terms of enhanced productivity and reduced labor costs can justify the expense. Moreover, mobile robots can be reprogrammed and redeployed as operational needs change, providing flexibility not available with traditional fixed automation solutions.

Strategic Decision-Making Enhanced by Robotic Insights

Beyond physical tasks, robotics technology is increasingly integrated into strategic decision-making. Data-driven robots with sensors collect vast amounts of operational data—from machine performance metrics to detailed production timelines—that can inform strategic decisions at the highest levels.

This capability transforms boardroom discussions; decisions are no longer based solely on human analysis but are supported by comprehensive data that robots provide.

This integration requires a shift in mindset from seeing robots as purely operational tools to viewing them as strategic assets. The insights offered by robotic systems enable businesses to anticipate market changes more effectively, optimize production processes, and innovate product offerings in line with data trends.

For you, this means that investing in robotics is not just an operational expense but a strategic imperative that can define your business’s future trajectory.

Robotics and Workforce Dynamics

One of the most significant impacts of robotics in business is on workforce dynamics. There’s a common misconception that robots are here to replace human workers. However, the reality is more about transformation than replacement.

Robotics frees employees from mundane and repetitive tasks, allowing them to focus on more creative and strategic roles that add greater value to the business. This shift can lead to higher job satisfaction and open up opportunities for employees to engage in more meaningful work.

As you integrate robotics, consider how you can retrain and redeploy your workforce to leverage their human skills, such as problem-solving, emotional intelligence, and creativity. This helps smooth the transition and ensures that your workforce remains an integral part of the new robotic-enhanced operations.

Preparing for a Future Shaped by Robotics

As robotics continue to advance, preparing for a future where they play a central role in business is imperative. This preparation involves several key steps:

Technological Investment: Stay updated on the latest robotic technologies and continually assess which solutions align best with your business needs. Keeping an eye on the cost of these technologies, especially mobile robots, and their ROI, is essential for justifying the investments.
Workforce Development: Invest in training programs that equip your employees with the skills needed to work alongside robots. This includes technical skills for managing and maintaining robotic systems and soft skills for roles that cannot be automated.
Strategic Planning: Incorporate robotics into your long-term strategic planning. Consider how robotics can reduce costs and increase efficiency and enable new business models and revenue streams.

The integration of robotics into business operations from factory floors to boardrooms, signifies a fundamental shift in how businesses operate and compete. As you adopt robotic technology, you are not just automating processes but are setting the stage for a future that leverages technology to enhance human capabilities, transform business models, and drive innovation.

The journey requires foresight, adaptability, and strategic planning, but the potential rewards—increased efficiency, enhanced decision-making, and a more motivated workforce—highlight a compelling case for implementing robotics in your business strategy.

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The Value of Tourism to Real Estate Investment Strategies and the Overall Global Real Estate Market

July 1, 2024

By Dan Fenton and Mark Wynn Smith

This article explores the value of tourism to real estate investment strategies and the global real estate market. It highlights the significant economic growth and job creation generated by the travel and tourism industry and emphasizes the importance of considering tourism factors when determining investment strategies. The article provides a list of non-traditional factors to assess the true value and investment potential of a tourism destination. It also discusses the impact of governmental policies on tourism and real estate development. The article concludes by showcasing the positive impact of tourism on property values in a specific example, emphasizing the need to consider the value of tourism in real estate decision-making.

The travel and tourism industry, a dominant force in the global economy, holds a prominent position both currently and in the foreseeable future, driving substantial economic growth, job creation and prosperity for destinations and countries around the globe. As a result, the industry has become a driving force and valuable component to the real estate investment decision-making process.

Governmental policymaking decisions can also play a role in enabling tourism’s impact and value to grow.

When thinking about tourism and its value, however, what does that mean from an investment perspective? Are investors in all sectors considering the true value of what tourism brings to the table when determining investment strategies?

We know that real estate is more valuable in high-demand tourism markets such as the Bahamas and Miami. From an investor standpoint, these top tier destinations tend to provide the perfect combination of visitor, business, and economic activity to drive real estate values and therefore demand.

However, determining true value for destinations that might have a strong economic base, but limited leisure activity can be more challenging. Therefore, it’s important to look outside the box and consider some non-traditional thinking to determine a tourism destination’s true value and overall investment potential, including:

Are companies relocating to or moving away from this destination?
Is there potential for tourism development and growth?
How has tourism impacted the local community and its economy?
Has tourism activity dropped off and if so, how is that impacting the local industries?
Is Tourism clearly a component of the destination brand?
How is the tourism sector performing, and how is it positioned within the destination’s overall ecosystem?
Are there tourism activities that also improve quality of life for residents?
Does the tourism industry elevate the perception of the destination as a place to invest?
Are there policies in place that support the sector’s growth and development?

Governmental policymaking decisions can also play a role in enabling tourism’s impact and value to grow.

In 2019, the World Travel and Tourism Council found that the shift to visa-free travel led to a 16.6 percent growth in travel demand. Countries such as India saw a 21 percent increase in arrivals when it shifted to its eVisa; Indonesia’s visa waiver saw a 24 percent increase; and Mexico’s third-party visa saw an increase of 17 percent in tourism demand.

With the continuous expansion of the tourism industry, the value of commercial and residential real estate sees an upward trend across all sectors, extending beyond just hotels and tourism-related attractions.

Here in the U.S., restrictions on the visa entry policy make it difficult for individuals from other countries to come here for a special event, such as the World Cup and Olympics, due to the many challenges of entry. The fact that the U.S. is so behind in policies and restrictions regarding entry and access makes travel more difficult and stressful, resulting in the U.S. slipping behind it terms of its competitiveness for global tourism. This throttling of potential demand also diminishes a destination’s standing on the national and global stage.

On a positive note, however, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency released its Mobil Passport Control app, which “allows eligible travelers to submit their travel document, photo, and customs declaration information through a free, secure app on their smartphone or other mobile device.” This will surely help to streamline the entry process and decrease the overall wait times through customs.

Governmental policymaking also has the potential to transform real estate usage to energize the development market, attract investors, and foster a continuously adaptable real estate landscape.

According to the World Travel & Tourism Council’s latest annual research:

In 2023, the Travel & Tourism sector contributed 1 percent to the global GDP; an increase of 23.2 percent from 2022 and just 4.1 percent below the 2019 level.
In 2023, there were 27 million new Travel & Tourism jobs, representing a 9.1 percent increase compared to 2022, and only 1.4 percent below the 2019 level.
Domestic visitor spending rose by 18.1 percent in 2023, surpassing the 2019 level.
International visitor spending registered a 33.1 percent jump in 2023 but remained 14.4 percent below the 2019 total.

In addition, the JLL and World Travel & Tourism Council’s “Destination 2030” report showed that Travel & Tourism outpaced the growth of the global economy for almost a decade until 2019, with an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent while at the same time creating one in four jobs during the five years prior to the pandemic. In addition, it accounted for 10.3 percent of global Gross Domestic Product and 1 in 10 jobs on the planet.

Understanding the economic power and the value of the Travel and Tourism industry can open doors to commercial real estate investment opportunities that might have otherwise been overlooked.

With the continuous expansion of the tourism industry, the value of commercial and residential real estate sees an upward trend across all sectors, extending beyond just hotels and tourism-related attractions. Nashville, Tennessee serves as a prime example, as it has undergone remarkable growth and development over the past decade, resulting in a substantial surge in commercial property prices. The city has emerged as a sought-after destination for businesses, residents and tourists alike, making a valuable contribution to the overall increase in property values.

By taking the value of tourism into account, investors and local governments alike can make informed decisions that maximize their potential for success in the overall tourism and real estate market.

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About the Authors

Dan Fenton – Managing Director. Based in San Francisco, Dan Fenton is a Managing Director with JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group specializing in tourism and destination strategic planning. He provides operations, sales and marketing support for destinations, public assembly venues and hotels. With more than 25 years of experience in hospitality and tourism, Dan has extensive knowledge of market research and tourism development.

Mark Wynn Smith – Global Head for Value and Risk Advisory. Based in the United Kingdom, Mark Wynn Smith is CEO for Global Head, Value and Risk Advisory for JLL. Leading professionals who appraise over $3 trillion of real estate across all sectors annually.

Navigating the Digital Jungle: The Importance of Reputation Management in the Legal Market

July 1, 2024

By Julia Helml, Friedrich Helml and Ludwig Helml

In our increasingly digitalised world, online reviews on rating portals such as Google Maps are becoming a key factor in the decision-making process for potential clients. This article examines the possibilities that exist for lawyers under the Austrian legal system to defend themselves against unjustified negative assessments by opponents who have previously lost legal cases against them.

Reputation management is becoming more and more important every year. Positive reviews on company rating platforms, for example on Google or on social media platforms, can be powerful customer magnets. Potential clients generally perceive positive average ratings as a seal of quality and automatically assume a quality advantage over the competition. Conversely, negative reviews can often lead to potential clients not perceiving a service provider as a reputable provider at all.

The purpose of reviews (and the reason why users trust the system) is to benefit from the experience of an almost infinite variety of users and thus save an individual user the trouble of searching for the most suitable candidate. Online ratings are thus increasingly replacing the personal recommendations of a trusted person. We tend to place the same trust in the anonymous Internet and its users that we would place in a personally trusted person when they make a personal recommendation.

Positive reviews on company rating platforms, for example on Google or on social media platforms, can be powerful customer magnets.

In the legal market, this can create a curious constellation that leads the intended system ad absurdum. For example, we are currently representing a long-established and nationally known lawyer colleague who does not shy away from difficult cases and is very successful; nevertheless, he is confronted with a below-average and business-damaging average rating on Google. But what is our client guilty of? Did he give bad legal advice or was he exceptionally unsuccessful inside or outside the courtroom? The opposite is the case.

The clients advised or represented by our client are, without exception, very satisfied with his performance and enthusiastic about his above-average commitment.

However, as our client often acts as legal counsel in highly publicised and polarising cases, there are numerous negative reviews from uninvolved third parties that are made solely for political reasons (for example, because someone believes that a lawyer should not take on such cases).

In addition, our client has been successfully enforcing claims for unlawful use of other people’s private property for years. However, his motivated and highly successful efforts on behalf of his clients in these cases also turned out to be a boomerang for his online reputation, as opponents who were successfully sued by him leave (completely unjustified) negative reviews, some anonymous and some under their real names, out of revenge.

A negative Google review of an entrepreneur can both violate their personal rights pursuant to Section 16 of the Austrian Civil Code (ABGB) and cause damage to credit within the meaning of Section 1330 (2) ABGB. In this context, the first thing that matters is whether it is a statement of fact or a value judgement. A factual claim can be checked for its truthfulness. A value judgement is an expression of opinion by the author. It is neither true nor untrue, but can be justified or unjustified.

In the case of a negative review without comment (e.g., with one out of five possible stars), the review represents a combination of an expression of opinion and a statement of fact that leads the average Google Maps user to the conclusion that this review represents an assessment of the company’s performance in relation to the author of the review. In the case of our client, however, such statements lack any factual basis, as there is no justification for the bad reviews and there have been no contractual interactions between our client and the authors of such reviews; nor have these authors had any business dealings with our client or used our client’s services in a way that would put them in a position to objectively evaluate our client.

With such reviews, the authors primarily violate Google’s internal guidelines for content published by Google Maps users. Contributions to Google Maps, including reviews or ratings of companies, are only permitted if they relate to experiences that are actually made at a location or with a company. If this is not the case, the interactions are considered fake and therefore inadmissible.

Such reviews are therefore made without a factual basis and constitute a violation of our client’s general right of personality, as they are likely to negatively influence or worsen the reputation or economic standing of our client and the general perception of the legal services provided by him. This is not least because the objectionable rating also negatively influences the average rating displayed for our client and the average rating of a service provider is generally perceived first.

Section 16 ABGB grants inherent human rights to every person. A false representation of a person (both online and offline) can constitute a violation of these human rights.

Section 16 ABGB grants inherent human rights to every person. A false representation of a person (both online and offline) can constitute a violation of these human rights.

The same applies in the event that an opponent actively pretends to be a client of a lawyer by posting a negative review with a corresponding comment. In this case, the corresponding post gives the impression that the client has used the lawyer’s services and that these were objectively deficient. (In the case of our client, however, the opposite was generally the case, because the reason for the poor ratings by opponents was precisely because our client had successfully represented his actual clients against these opponents or against the socio-political views of a rater.)

The dissemination of untrue statements of fact in this way is not covered by the fundamental right to freedom of expression. Section 1330 of the ABGB stipulates that someone who has suffered real damage or lost profit as a result of defamation is entitled to compensation. This also applies if someone spreads facts that jeopardise the credit, acquisition, or advancement of another person and whose falsity they knew or should have known. In this case, in addition to compensation for damages, the public retraction of the statement made and the publication of the retraction can also be demanded.

The Supreme Court recently dealt with this issue and stated in a landmark decision that a one-star rating of a law firm on an online platform can be damaging to reputation and credit if it does not originate from a client’s own experience but from the other party (Supreme Court 6 Ob 143/21d).

The negative reviews of our client described above are therefore unlawful, especially as the average user is falsely led to believe that these are reviews of our client’s customers, which is not actually the case. Such unlawful reviews can therefore be removed with the help of the courts.

Contact Aliant Austria here:
https://aliantlaw.com/places/austria/

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Aliant Austria is a leading Austrian boutique law firm specialising, inter alia, in data protection law, intellectual property, litigation, and arbitration. The firm is also very active and successful in the areas of dispute prevention and dispute management, real estate law, and capital markets law.

About the Authors

Friedrich Helml heads the dispute resolution department, Julia Helml heads the firm as managing partner and Ludwig Helml heads the real estate practice.

Learning to Spot a High-Paying Slot Machine

July 1, 2024

Ever wonder why some slots seem to pay out more than others? In fact, some signs show that the casino is ready to pay out big. But what are they? And how can you spot them? Learn this and more in the article.

What Slots Are So Popular Among Gamblers These Days

Slots are a hit at sites like RetroBet Casino, and it’s easy to see why. Let’s discuss a bit.

They’re fun, flashy, and offer the thrill of big wins. Yes, you don’t have to develop a strategy with them and think through each move. Pick a slot with the most appealing theme and start spinning — the lucky will do all the rest.
You can find them everywhere, from classic fruit machines to high-tech video slots with incredible graphics and sound. Nowadays, slots are listed on all online platforms and usually come in huge variety. Some platforms even list 5000+ slot titles, so you can definitely choose something for your taste.
And with the rise of siirto kasino and other gambling sites, you can spin the reels anytime, anywhere. They are super speedy and accessible. Thus, most gamblers start with them when they first attend gambling venues.

But with so many choices, how do you know which slots are worth your time and money?

Learn to Spot a High-Paying Slot Machine

Here’s the real deal. Not all slot machines are created equal. Some are designed to pay out more than others. Here’s how you can spot a high-paying slot.

Check the RTP (Return to Player) Rate

This percentage shows how much money wagered on a slot is paid back to players over time. The industry average is generally considered 96%. Everything that equals or exceeds this number is worth your attention. With high RTP, you can be sure that you will benefit more.

Look for Low Volatility

Slots with low volatility pay out smaller amounts more frequently. It means you get regular wins that keep you playing longer without draining your bankroll. But sure, this type of slot won’t fit you if you’re a risky gambler or a high roller. These gamers look for high stakes and big wins. Therefore, they should seek high volatility slots.

Pay Attention to Bonus Features

Slots with bonus features like free spins, multipliers, and bonus rounds can boost your winnings. These features add extra excitement and increase your chances of hitting a big win. Besides, they allow you to keep spinning without depositing more — just what you need for a low-risk play.

Read Reviews and Player Feedback

Other players’ experiences can give you a good idea of how a slot performs. Check out reviews and forums to see which slots are getting the thumbs up. If you can’t find the review on your slot, then start your own discussion. The gambling community is very responsive, so you will receive feedback and valuable advice.

Slot Myths Debunked

Let’s clear up some common slot myths that might be holding you back.

Myth: Slots Are “Due” for a Win

Slot outcomes are decided at the moment you press the button. Thus, the concept of “due” simply doesn’t exist. Each result is random and unpredictable. If you decide to keep spinning till the slot pays out, that’s the way to disaster.

Myth: Higher Bets Increase Your Chances of Winning

As with the previous misconception, neither you nor the casino knows which spin will bring the subsequent colossal sum. The outcome cannot be tempered either. Betting more is still great because you can win more if you are lucky. But if you’re not, you will lose all you’ve staked. In any case, you should understand the risk and bet large sums only if your budget allows you.

Myth: Online Slots Are Rigged

Reputable online casinos use Random Number Generators (RNGs) to ensure fair play. However, things change at scam sites, where online slots can really be tempered. Thus, it’s your responsibility to choose a reputable gambling platform and verify its license before you place a bet.

Conclusion

Finding a slot machine that will pay out more in the long run is quite possible. Look at high RTP, low volatility, and attractive bonuses. But remember that the place where you gamble is equally essential. Verify your casino before you start, and let luck be on your side.

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Living In Authenticity

June 30, 2024

By Carol Mae Whittick

People seem to be understandably curious about authenticity. As one definition of the word is ‘true to one’s own personality, spirit, or character’, I feel this interest reflects a collective yearning for sincerity in an increasingly false world. My commitment to live authentically has been a challenge but also my greatest teacher.

In this article I share what this means for me. The path to my authenticity has required deep self enquiry into all areas in my life, being radically honest about whether they reflect who I am and then having the courage to take action to make changes. It has required disciple and consistency but most importantly resilience because people always offer their opinions and most of them are unfavourable.

Bucking against societal norms is only ever celebrated in hindsight. The brave soul that seeks authenticity is often shunned, taunted, risks losing their reputation, or income. Witnessing this, most people do not believe they have the emotional, psychological and spiritual strength to withstand such treatment, so they choose conformity. But, to paraphrase the quote, you never know how strong you are until that is the only choice you have and similarly, how can you know who you can be if you do not try?

My curiosity about who I could be propelled me forward towards my dreams against the wave of resistance. I could (should) have gone into healthcare like many in my family who chose careers in nursing, midwifery and pharmacology but before I even tried to enter the industry I knew it was not for me.

Yes, I was caring and empathetic however I also had developed a deep passion for creativity, especially music and songwriting. As a young girl I was obsessed with popular music. Every Sunday evening I attended my weekly masterclass, listening to the pop chart countdown. I studied the craft of songwriting, emulating what I heard and then honing my own style. Once I realised that modern music was written by living people who were paid to do it, I wanted in.

However, no-one understood how I could monetise my skill and, I suspect they thought I would eventually tire of my pipe dream and ‘get real’. But that was never going to happen. I knew in my heart that true happiness for me would be as a result of utilising my creativity.

How long do you compromise

Over the years as I worked towards my dreams I had ‘real jobs’ that supported me financially. They taught me many transferable skills. I learned the business structures within various industries and I met people who are still my friends today. However, I also witnessed firsthand the detrimental effects of not having a true passion in life.

We all need something to strive for and if we do not identify what that is for ourselves, we will adopt someone else’s ideal and do everything to protect it. Many colleagues who, like me, had initially taken a job to support their vision give up after one too many rejections and then settled for a career they really did not want. It ate away at them and the sense of hope about their future morphed into bitterness.

I thought that I had found a combination that worked, a full time position at a production company that allowed me time off for performing. All was fine for a while until those old familiar feelings of boredom and frustration returned. I was preparing to leave when fate intervened and I was made redundant.

For many people redundancy is devastating however for me it was an opportunity to get back to focusing on what I desired and reclaim the 3 years of my life I had invested into this now non-existent company.

There was another vital lesson for me that reinforced my conviction to figure out how to live authentically. During the final meeting, as we were handed the paperwork we needed to complete to receive our (meagre) redundancy payments. The MD whose crass behaviour we had endured could not even bring himself to feign an apology or offer gratitude for our efforts. It was a massive wakeup call. I had given so much to someone who blatantly had no respect for me. How was that honouring the hopeful young girl who had stood her ground against all resistance?

Making a different choice

There is so much external pressure to do, be and have at particular moments in our lives however, chasing external validation takes us away from discovering our potential. Living an authentic life is not so much about achieving the goals you have in mind – because the reality always differs from the vision – but more about what you learn about yourself as you journey towards them. Choosing non-negotiable authenticity has rewarded me with inner peace, I do not suffer from the anxiety of indecision or needing people to like me.

My childhood desires have not only satisfied me but now also help others in my work as a Creativity & Spiritual Life Coach, Writer and Podcaster. I have always been inspired by great orators who are memorable because they are authentic so to start my road to mastering public speaking, I joined my local Toastmasters club.

In my experience, choosing to live authentically is the ultimate key to personal satisfaction.

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About the Author

Carol Mae Whittick is a member of Toastmasters International, a not-for-profit organisation that has provided communication and leadership skills since 1924 through a worldwide network of clubs. There are more than 400 clubs and 10,000 members in the UK and Ireland. Members follow a structured educational programme to gain skills and confidence in public and impromptu speaking, chairing meetings and time management. To find your nearest club, visit www.toastmasters.org