As the U.S. presidential election nears, the potential victory of Donald Trump poses mixed implications for Chinese technology firms. Executives fear that Trump’s unpredictable style could lead to intensified sanctions, echoing his previous trade war actions that banned high-tech exports to China. His combative approach might also unsettle U.S. allies, complicating coordinated efforts against China.
Conversely, Kamala Harris is viewed as a more predictable choice, likely to continue incremental changes in export controls and maintain international cooperation. Regardless of who wins, analysts anticipate new restrictions aimed at curbing China’s technological advances amid rising tensions in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
While half of the industry analyses see a Trump win as detrimental, the other half suggests his unilateral policies may face opposition from U.S. allies, potentially undermining their effectiveness. Nevertheless, China’s tech sector has become increasingly self-sufficient since the trade war, focusing on domestic alternatives.
As uncertainty looms, many executives have adopted a “new normal” mindset, prioritizing rapid growth and innovation. “We are blind to know what might come next, so we just keep going, as fast as we can,” said one industry executive, reflecting the resolve to adapt to an unpredictable landscape.
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