Industrial growth, $114 billion in foreign investment over five years and assessments by international agencies reflect the changes under way in the country’s economy.
Since gaining independence, Kazakhstan has evolved from a post-Soviet economy into the largest economy in Central Asia. Its rich natural resources have played a major role in this development. The oil and gas sector brought in foreign capital, boosted export revenues and funded large-scale infrastructure investment. Yet the success of the resource-based model had a downside: for decades, the country’s economic performance remained closely tied to global commodity prices, and dependence on oil revenues limited the scope for diversification.
Under its first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led the country for almost 30 years, Kazakhstan carried out market reforms, attracted significant foreign investment and laid the foundations of a modern economy. At the same time, attempts to change the structure of the economy did not succeed in overcoming its dependence on raw materials. Despite the development of industry and entrepreneurship, the extractive sector continued to play a decisive role in exports and public finances. The political transition that began in 2019, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power, marked a new stage in the country’s development. Initially it proceeded within the framework of policy continuity, but subsequent political and institutional changes were accompanied by a review of economic priorities. The new agenda centred on developing a competitive environment, protecting private property, reducing the state’s role in the economy and attracting capital into non-resource industries.(1)
Under Tokayev, economic diversification has become one of the central pillars of state policy. The development of manufacturing, the modernisation of infrastructure and the expansion of private enterprise are intended to create new sources of growth and gradually reduce the country’s dependence on commodity markets.
The results of these changes are already visible in economic indicators. In 2025, GDP per capita exceeded $15,000, having grown by 52.9% over seven years. In 2021–2025, gross foreign direct investment inflows into Kazakhstan totalled $114.2 billion, and over the seven years from 2019 to 2025 they reached $155.8 billion.(2)
For international business, Kazakhstan is steadily broadening its investment proposition. Its traditional advantages – a strong resource base and a location between Eurasia’s largest markets – are now complemented by a growing domestic market, new production capacity, and the development of logistics and digital infrastructure.
International assessments: steady growth and an investment-grade credit rating
Kazakhstan’s economic prospects are reflected in the assessments of international financial institutions and leading credit rating agencies.
In September 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) maintained its forecast for Kazakhstan’s economic growth at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. At the same time, the bank points to risks related to disruptions in oil exports, external demand and commodity market dynamics.(3)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also expects positive economic momentum to continue. According to its forecast, Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow by 4.8% in 2026 and by 4.5% in 2027. Taken together, the two international institutions’ estimates point to economic growth of around 4.5–5% over the next two years.(4)
Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit ratings are an additional factor for international investors.
In August 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s long-term sovereign rating from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted the resilience of Kazakhstan’s economy amid global uncertainty, its substantial external reserves and expectations of a further reduction in the non-oil budget deficit. S&P forecasts Kazakhstan’s real GDP to grow by 5.1% in 2026 and by around 4% over the medium term.(5)
Fitch Ratings also affirmed Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating at investment-grade BBB with a stable outlook. Among the factors supporting the country’s creditworthiness, the agency cites its substantial net foreign assets and relatively low government debt. Fitch expects transport, manufacturing and services to continue supporting economic activity over the medium term.(6)
These assessments round out the picture of Kazakhstan’s economic development: projected growth is combined with an investment-grade credit rating and substantial financial reserves. For foreign companies, such indicators matter when assessing country risk and planning long-term projects.
Industrial diversification expands opportunities for capital
One of the most visible areas of economic change is the development of manufacturing. Its share of Kazakhstan’s economy has already surpassed that of mining, indicating a gradual shift in the structure of production.
Over the past seven years, 625 new industrial enterprises have been launched in the country, creating almost 62,000 jobs. The development of the manufacturing sector creates additional opportunities for international companies interested in localising production, supplying equipment and integrating into regional value chains.(7)
The automotive industry has become a telling example of industrial transformation. Over seven years, Kazakhstan has produced almost 800,000 vehicles. The expansion of production capacity was supported by the launch of major projects by Kia Qazaqstan and Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan. The development of the automotive industry, in turn, creates the conditions for attracting component manufacturers, equipment suppliers and technology companies. As production capacity grows, opportunities emerge to deepen localisation and develop related industries.
The agro-industrial sector also holds significant potential for international business. Over seven years, gross output of agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew by 24% in real terms, and in monetary terms from 5.2 trillion to 9.8 trillion tenge. Growing production expands opportunities for investment in agricultural processing, storage, logistics, agricultural machinery and the adoption of modern technologies. Today, businesses, including international ones, are interested not only in Kazakhstan’s domestic market but also in the opportunity to set up export-oriented production.
At the same time, industrial modernisation is accompanied by the expansion of the domestic market and the entrepreneurial base. Over the past seven years, employment in small and medium-sized businesses has increased by 31.3%, reaching 4.5 million people in 2025. This growth has been driven by an increase in the number of sole proprietors and small companies.
The development of the entrepreneurial sector means greater opportunities to build local supply chains, find partners and enter the domestic market. And the growing scale of the economy creates additional demand for equipment, technology, and financial and professional services.
The construction industry is one indicator of the domestic market’s development. Over seven years, 118.3 million square metres of housing have been commissioned in Kazakhstan. The expansion of construction is generating demand for building materials, engineering equipment, modern technologies and related services.
Developing entrepreneurship remains one of the priorities of Tokayev’s economic policy. The course set out by the president includes protecting private property, developing competition, reducing administrative barriers and scaling back the state’s participation in the economy. Delivering on these goals matters for attracting further private capital and creating a more competitive business environment.
Transport infrastructure in Eurasian trade
Kazakhstan’s location between Eurasia’s largest economic centres is gaining further significance as transport infrastructure develops and foreign trade ties expand.
Over the past seven years, 36,300 km of roads have been built and repaired in the country, and around 5,000 km of railway track have been built and upgraded. In addition, construction and installation work has been completed at 110 railway stations.
The development of the transport network strengthens Kazakhstan’s role as a transit and logistics hub. For international companies, this creates the conditions for locating distribution centres, organising regional supply and integrating Kazakh production into international value chains. Infrastructure changes are accompanied by the expansion of foreign economic activity. In 2025, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover in goods and services exceeded $170 billion, having increased by 40.5% over five years.
Transport connectivity is becoming one of the areas of international investment cooperation. In 2026, Kazakhstan and the EBRD signed a new five-year agreement covering the period to 2030. It provides for joint work on private sector development, sustainable infrastructure, digitalisation, the financial market and strengthening Kazakhstan’s role as a regional trade and logistics hub.(8) This combination of developing transport infrastructure and growing trade flows opens up opportunities in logistics, warehousing, transport services and export-oriented manufacturing.
Digitalisation and human capital as long-term advantages
Alongside industry and infrastructure, Kazakhstan is developing its digital environment and its system of workforce training. These areas are becoming increasingly important for international companies interested in locating technology manufacturing, service centres and other projects that require qualified specialists.
In Kazakhstan, 90.3% of public services are provided electronically. The number of types of e-government services has increased from 657 in 2021 to 1,333 in 2026. Internet access is available to 97.5% of the population. The expansion of digital public services lays the groundwork for simpler interaction between businesses and government agencies. A high level of internet access, in turn, creates opportunities for the development of e-commerce, fintech and digital services. Moreover, for a country with a vast territory and relatively low population density, moving public services online has not only technological but also economic significance. Digitalisation shortens the distance between citizens, business and the state and lowers the cost of accessing services. Kazakhstan’s breakthrough in digitalisation has become a good example for other countries, and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) ranked Kazakhstan 10th in the world for Government’s online service in the Global Innovation Index 2025. WIPO counts digital public services among the country’s strongest innovation indicators.(9)
Economic modernisation also requires a qualitative renewal of human capital. Kazakhstan’s new development strategy takes this into account, making it one of its priorities. The country is increasing investment in education and research. Domestic R&D spending rose from 42.3 billion tenge in 2019 to 252.5 billion tenge in 2025. International cooperation in higher education is also developing: 32 branch campuses and other forms of strategic partnership with foreign universities have been opened in the country. In the long term, this lays the foundation for attracting investment into more technology- and knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy.
A new stage of investment development
The economic transformation of recent years is gradually broadening Kazakhstan’s investment proposition beyond the traditional commodities sector. The development of manufacturing, transport infrastructure, agriculture and digital services is opening up new avenues for international capital.
A further factor is the changing structure of the economy’s external liabilities. Over five years, the ratio of external debt to GDP fell from 83.1% to 59.4%, indicating a lower relative external debt burden.
Of course, the transition to a more diversified economic model remains a long-term task. The oil and gas sector still plays a significant role in exports and public finances, and the country’s further development will depend on the sustainability of macroeconomic policy, productivity growth and the ability to expand private capital participation.
These objectives are also reflected in Kazakhstan’s international cooperation. The World Bank’s new Country Partnership Framework for 2026–2031 envisages infrastructure development, greater economic resilience and better conditions for a more productive and innovative private sector. One of its key priorities is to expand private capital participation and reduce the dependence of economic growth on extractive industries.(10)
Kazakhstan’s economic course is aimed at addressing precisely these challenges. Its further implementation will determine how far the country can use its accumulated resource and investment potential to develop new industries, increase competitiveness and expand international economic cooperation.
1 – PRESIDENT TOKAYEV OUTLINES KAZAKHSTAN’S NEW ECONOMIC COURSE https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa/press/news/details/315693?lang=en
2 – GDP time series https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/economy/national-accounts/dynamic-tables/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
4 – https://www.adb.org/where-we-work/kazakhstan/economy
7 – https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/business-statistics/stat-industrial-production/
9 – Official data of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) under the Global Innovation Index 2025 (GII 2025). https://www.wipo.int/edocs/gii-ranking/2025/kz.pdf
10 – https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/country/kazakhstan/cpf
