Global attention has understandably focused on the Strait of Hormuz and the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and liquefied natural gas trade normally passes through the strait, making disruption there an immediate threat to energy security, inflation and economic growth.
Yet while governments and markets have been watching the Gulf, civilian vessels serving another important oil corridor have come under repeated attack in the Black Sea.
On 17 July, a tanker travelling to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPS) terminal to load oil, was struck in a drone attack, causing a fire aboard the vessel. Two days later, the ASIA and NISSOS IOS were attacked while loading Kazakh crude at CPC’s offshore mooring facilities. Loading operations were suspended. Further incidents in the surrounding maritime area reinforced concerns among shipowners and operators.
These attacks transformed the security of CPC from a regional concern into an immediate global market issue. With loading disrupted and storage capacity filling, the pipeline temporarily stopped accepting oil from Kazakhstan. Producers more than 1,500 kilometres away were subsequently forced to reduce output.
The attacks have been attributed to Ukraine amid its expanding campaign against Russian maritime and energy targets, although CPC itself has not assigned blame. Whatever an investigation ultimately establishes, properly identified civilian vessels carrying Kazakh crude should not become collateral damage in a conflict to which Kazakhstan is not a party.
Why CPC matters
The CPC pipeline transports oil from Kazakhstan’s largest producing fields across southern Russia to a marine terminal near Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. It carries approximately 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and has recently transported around 1.5 million barrels per day, close to 2 percent of global oil supply. This is significant when oil markets are already adjusting to one of the largest supply disruptions in their history.
CPC connects the giant Tengiz field and other major projects, including Kashagan and Karachaganak, with European and global customers. These fields are deeply integrated into the international energy economy, involving companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies alongside Kazakhstan’s national oil company, KazMunayGas.
Kazakhstan has also become important to European energy security. It was the EU’s third-largest supplier of petroleum oil in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 9.6 percent of imports. Its role has grown as Europe has diversified its supplies and reduced purchases of Russian crude.
The security of CPC is therefore not simply a matter for the countries through which the pipeline passes. It directly affects European refiners, Western investors, international shipping companies and consumers far removed from the Black Sea.
The effects of the July attacks illustrate this interdependence. Production at Tengiz fell from an average of approximately 925,000 barrels per day earlier in July to around 406,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan’s total oil and gas-condensate output declined from 2.07 million to 1.63 million barrels per day.
The timing of the CPC disruption is particularly concerning. The global oil market has absorbed the shock from the Middle East partly by drawing heavily on the buffers accumulated before the conflict.
The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest collective action in its history, while global inventories were being depleted at an average rate of 3.8 million barrels per day. Alternative export routes, additional output from non-Gulf producers and reduced consumption have also helped.
Nevertheless, the IEA estimated that global oil supply in June remained 9.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level. These shock absorbers are substantial, but they are not unlimited. By late July, physical crude grades in several markets were approaching $110 a barrel as disruption in the Middle East coincided with reduced Kazakh exports. In a market already under pressure, the loss of another source intensifies competition for the barrels that remain available.
The consequences eventually reach households and businesses. Higher oil prices increase the cost of transport, manufacturing, agriculture and consumer goods. The IMF estimates that a persistent 10 percent increase in oil prices can add approximately 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and reduce global output by between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.
Further disruption to CPC would not produce these effects alone. But the danger lies in the cumulative impact of reduced flows through Hormuz, insecurity in the Red Sea and disruption to Black Sea exports occurring simultaneously.
Protecting lawful civilian trade
Kazakhstan has strongly condemned the attacks and called for their immediate cessation. Its position is based not only on the damage to its national economic interests but also on the status of the vessels and cargoes involved. The tankers were civilian ships with multinational crews engaged in documented commercial operations.
Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev has placed the incidents in the broader context of supply-chain security. He described attacks by “unidentified unmanned systems” on energy infrastructure and tankers serving Kazakhstan’s exports as an example of geopolitical tensions spilling into commercial trade. As he put it, “joint efforts to ensure the security of trade routes are gaining particular importance.”
Kazakhstan has stated that a previously agreed mechanism for exchanging information about vessels loading CPC oil was disregarded. The affected ships were operating with active identification systems, while their charter and cargo documentation provided a basis for establishing the lawful origin and purpose of their journeys.
In a separate but relevant intervention days later, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 25 in Omsk to argue publicly that the war itself must be brought to an end. He proposed temporarily “freezing” the conflict as a first step towards reviving the Istanbul negotiating framework and establishing security guarantees backed by major powers. Lamenting the deaths of young Russians and Ukrainians, Tokayev said plainly that “all of this must be stopped.” The intervention was significant: few leaders of countries maintaining close relations with Moscow have told Putin, face to face and in public, so directly that the fighting should cease. His argument was pragmatic – that a temporary halt could create space for diplomacy.
When it comes to the CPC, civilian seafarers and clearly identified commercial vessels should not become casualties of conflicts to which they are not parties. This view has received support beyond Kazakhstan. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, has condemned attacks on civilian merchant ships in the Black Sea, warning that they endanger seafarers, disrupt global supply chains and undermine the principles of international shipping. U.S. Representative Bill Huizenga, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, has similarly warned that attacks affecting CPC pose risks to civilians, American commercial interests and global economic stability, stating that further strikes by Ukraine on CPC “will not be tolerated”.
Condemnation must now be unequivocal and accompanied by practical measures. The vessel-information mechanism should be restored and strengthened. Governments, flag states, CPC shareholders, shipowners and international maritime bodies should establish clear channels for verifying civilian vessels and reducing the risk of misidentification. Incidents should be investigated transparently, and accountability and compensation should follow.
Kazakhstan will continue developing alternative export routes, but geography and capacity mean that none can replace CPC in the immediate future. The urgent task is therefore to keep existing lawful trade functioning safely.
The world has already learned from Hormuz how quickly disruption to an energy corridor can spread through commodity markets and into the wider economy. It should not wait for a prolonged CPC shutdown to learn the same lesson again. Protecting the consortium and the civilian vessels serving it is not simply a Kazakh concern. It is part of protecting the remaining resilience of the global economy.
