Markets and healthcare providers are bracing for a potential policy shift that could pull cannabis deeper into the U.S. medical and financial system, as President Donald Trump prepares to sign an executive order that would significantly widen legal access to the drug.
Industry executives and analysts say the move could unlock new capital flows, reshape treatment options for seniors and redraw competitive lines between cannabis producers and major pharmaceutical companies. Investors have already begun positioning for change, betting that federal backing could lift valuations across the sector.
At the center of the proposal is a plan to reclassify marijuana under the Drug Enforcement Administration from Schedule I to Schedule III. That change would move cannabis out of the same category as heroin and LSD and place it alongside drugs such as Tylenol with codeine. Trump said on Monday he is “strongly” weighing the shift, arguing it would open the door to scientific research that has long been restricted.
The expected order would also launch a pilot program allowing Medicare to reimburse certain cannabis products for older Americans. According to industry lawyers, the coverage would focus on cannabidiol or CBD products marketed for conditions such as chronic pain and sleep disorders.
“I expect the executive order will make clear what kind of cannabinoids are covered, that they have to come from a federally legal source,” said Shawn Hauser, a partner at cannabis focused law firm Vicente LLP.
For the business community, the implications stretch far beyond consumer access. A Schedule III designation would ease banking restrictions and remove tax rules that prevent cannabis firms from deducting ordinary expenses. That alone could improve profitability and attract institutional investors who have avoided the sector because of federal illegality.
“The valuation of the sector will be worth a lot more because institutional investors will be allowed in, will have access and will have liquidity, and exchanges will trade them,” said Timothy Seymour, founder and chief investment officer of Seymour Asset Management. “That immediately could double or triple the sector.”
Optimism around federal action has already driven sharp stock moves. Shares of Tilray Brands and Canopy Growth surged late last week as speculation about rescheduling and Medicare coverage intensified.
The healthcare impact, however, remains contested. While CBD products have spread rapidly into mainstream retail, the Food and Drug Administration has approved only one cannabis based drug, Epidiolex, and only for rare forms of epilepsy. Critics warn that reimbursing seniors for largely unproven treatments could carry medical and financial risks.
“It’s not at all based on science. This is all based on money, and it’s egregious. That’s not the way we make medical decisions,” said Meg Haney, director of the Cannabis Research Laboratory at Columbia University.
Supporters counter that rescheduling is essential to build the very evidence regulators are demanding. “Medical research has effectively been under lock and key,” said Ryan Vandrey, a Johns Hopkins University professor who helps run its Cannabis Science Lab. “Schedule I makes large, placebo-controlled trials incredibly difficult.”
The Medicare proposal has also drawn political scrutiny. House Speaker Mike Johnson has raised concerns about cost and liability, while FDA officials argue that reimbursing treatments without full approval would be unprecedented. The White House has not commented on the expected order.
Behind the push is billionaire financier Howard Kessler, a longtime Trump ally whose Commonwealth Project advocates cannabis use in senior care. Advocates want a pilot program to collect real world data rather than waiting years for traditional clinical trials.
From a European business perspective, the debate highlights how regulatory decisions can rapidly reprice entire industries. The U.S. cannabis market grew sharply last year, and global sales of cannabis derived products are projected to reach $160 billion by 2032. Federal endorsement could accelerate consolidation, with larger pharmaceutical firms and well capitalized cannabis operators emerging as likely winners.
“You are going to see more consolidation in the sector,” Seymour said. “Smaller companies that have good businesses, that are profitable … are probably going to be seen as targets.”
Whether the executive order ultimately delivers on its promise remains uncertain. But for investors, healthcare leaders and policymakers alike, the decision signals that cannabis may be moving from the regulatory fringe toward the center of the U.S. economic and medical system.
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