There has been much speculation recently in the press about the impending global crash and the inevitable fallout it will cause. The author analyses some of the reasons being given from some of the most well known economists around the world and has some more bad news for us all. The predicted 2020 global recession might be optimistic.
The predictions are now coming in thick and fast. It appears that there is a foregone conclusion that 2020 is the date that crash 2.0 will wreak havoc once again.
The Independent: “Next global financial crisis will strike in 2020, warns investment bank JPMorgan – sparked by automated trading systems.”1
Forbes: “2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History – triggered by contagion from a global credit crisis.”2
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that “2020 is a real inflection point.”
The newspapers, magazines and credit agencies are speculating. But what about those in the know?
Nouriel Roubini,3 a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, a Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House during the Clinton Administration, has also worked for the IMF, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
Roubini predicts that the current global expansion will likely continue into next year, but warns that the conditions will be ripe for a global recession in 2020.
He makes the point that global stimulus packages are coming to an end, that inflation is coming, that trade disputes will create a drag on economies and that interest rates are now on an upward trajectory. He is of course right on all points.
Interestingly, Roubini makes comment about how curbing immigration will slow growth because ageing populations will be unable to take up the slack. This is an irony that will be lost on same demographic that voted for populist movements to remove them.
About the Author
Graham Vanbergen’s business career culminated in a Board position in one of Britain’s largest property portfolio’s, owned by one of the biggest financial institutions in the world. Today he is the founder and contributing editor of TruePublica.org.uk.
1 . Stubbly, P (2018), “Next Global Financial Crisis Will Strike In 2020, Warns Investment Bank Jpmorgan,” The Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/next-financial-crisis-2020-recession-world-markets-jpmorgan-a8540341.html.
2. Mauldin, J (2018), “The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History,” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/#1fd316e448d3.
3. Roubini, N (2018), “The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis,” Project Syndicate, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/financial-crisis-in-2020-worse-than-2008-by-nouriel-roubini-and-brunello-rosa-2018-09.
4. White, W (2018), “Bad Moon Rising,” Project Syndicate, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-economy-weak-fundamentals-by-william-white-2018-10
5. Prins, N (2018), “4 Pillars of Debt in Danger of Collapse,” Daily Reckoning, https://dailyreckoning.com/pillars-debt-danger-of-collapse/