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Global Food Security after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Times of Climate Change

Global Food Security after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Times of Climate Change

By Jan-Gero Alexander Hannemann, Dr Maryna Psol and Michael Palocz-Andresen

Despite the highly developed agriculture of today, global food security remains a challenging issue, even in the 21st century. The risk of new plant pathogens and subsequent crop failures is increasing steadily due to the prevalence of monocultures, the overuse of pesticides and fertilisers, the associated resistance of pests, deforestation, the destruction of natural ecosystems, and ever more frequent natural disasters. The recent advent of the corona pandemic has shown that it is not only the poorest regions of the world that can be hit by hunger. Even highly developed countries were not to be able to provide everyone with sufficient food during the crisis.

Food Insecurity around the World

The world is overpopulated and more than 815 million people did not have sufficient food even before the COVID-19 pandemic1. One out of nine humans worldwide was starving in 2015. The current situation is even more dramatic2.

The reasons for this dramatic situation are political and social mistakes that were made before the pandemic. But it was the COVID-19 crisis that made this problem much worse.

table 1

Forecasts assume that the world will have up to 9.8 billion human beings by 2050 and that a considerable additional effort has to be made to distribute resources and, above all, food more fairly 4. At the same time, the soil cannot be exploited indefinitely; productivity per field unit can only be expanded in balance with the ecosystem. After all, the arable land that can be used for agriculture worldwide is a very limited production factor 5.

This shows that the aim of producing sufficient food is challenging to reach. Therefore, monocultures are commonly the answer of choice in order for farmers to produce enough food. But there are plenty of harmful organisms, as well as plant diseases, that bring stress to the fields and might destroy whole harvests6. Moreover, climate change with associated harsh weather conditions exacerbates the problem even further, while putting global food security at risk7.

Protection becomes even more challenging in the face of rapidly accelerating climate change. The melting of the Himalayan glaciers due to the increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 and rises in temperature could affect 25% of the world crop production located in Asia8. It is ever more important that crops should be both drought- and heat-resistant.

Protection becomes even more challenging in the face of rapidly accelerating climate change.

Some argue that an increase in the concentration of CO2 has a fertilisation effect and therefore leads to higher yields in agriculture. However, this argument is misleading and ignores the dramatic impact of high temperatures and water scarcity on food production8.

Besides climate change, human activities can also have a significant impact on agriculture and food production. Depending on the type of reproduction, whole species could entirely disappear or become scarce and expensive9. One example is the history of the potato in the 19th century. The second example is the history of the Gros Michel banana10. This banana is much larger and is considered tastier than today’s commercially available bananas11. The cultivation of this variety in monocultures was made so complicated by the “Fusarium wilt”, also known as “Panama disease”, that the Gros Michel is hardly cultivated for export today. Currently, the main banana variety for export is the Cavendish12.

figure 1
Figure 1 explains the difficulties with the reproduction process of bananas.

Emerging plant diseases can change the whole ecosystem when new invasive pathogens appear. For example, the native chestnuts almost disappeared in the United States due to Cryphonectriaparasitica, and temperate forests are suffering worldwide from the parasite Phytophthora ramorum13.

Even though better management and the achievements of modern agriculture have led to a doubling of food production in the last 40 years, the use of pesticides has increased 15 to 20 times. At the same time, pest outbreaks have become even more frequent, driving the resistance of the pathogens further. Overall crop loss has also increased in recent decades8. Novel and technologically important solutions for food security and plant disease management are long overdue.

Figure-2
Figure 2 presents the negative impacts of decreasing, and also the possibilities of increasing, food security.

Solutions

Below, we further explore and explain a few strategies. This list of strategies is not exhaustive. Indeed, there are even more approaches to dealing with this severe problem, but the strategies described are those which the authors believe to be the most successful for sustainable agriculture.

Vertical Farming

Singapore might serve as an example. Recently, large indoor farms (vertical farming) have been set up in specialised skyscrapers, with robot technology applied to take care of each plant separately, and a unique water filtration system that will ensure that every plant is served at its best. This is the country’s approach to climate change, of which it is well aware and which it is trying to fight by impressive technological approaches. Its state founder and former president, Lee Kuan Yew, believed that it was technology that would change the world forever, more than all the changes in the political and ideological sphere14. And this is one of the reasons that Singapore is investing in and focusing on young startups that put their primary focus on the information technology, biomedical and agricultural industries15.

Reduction of Monocultures

According to numerous studies, the risk of the emergence of disease can be reduced by increasing the genetic diversity of the plant population in agriculture. For example, Margosian et al. (2009) investigated the connectivity of agricultural fields in the US and showed that the increase in monoculture, for example, in maize and soybeans, increases the risk of the emergence of new plant pathogens. In this case, the outbreaks of plant diseases are more noteworthy for two reasons: firstly, large fields provide for the rapid spread of the pest; and, secondly, strategies to eradicate the emerging pathogens are less effective on the
large acreage16.

Figure-3
Figure 3 shows a monoculture in the USA.

Natural barriers seem to play an especially important role in the prevention of infestations in fields and the spreading of diseases from field to field and even across state borders.

Recently, it has been shown that genetic diversity in crops may reduce the spread of insect pests. In the research project that proved this, scientists examined 53 species of insects (mainly in the caterpillar stage) and applied mathematical models to estimate how plant diversity influences the population and spread of plant-eating insects. Such insects can harm plants directly or carry viral or fungal pathogens, which then cause an outbreak of disease. A large monoculture creates a perfect feeding place for a particular insect species.

But if the plants are more heterogeneous, the insects may be deprived of some nutrients they need for fast reproduction and the rapid infestation of the field. Such a strategy of genotype mixing has already been used in some rice and wheat fields in the USA. The authors concluded that more genetically varied fields could also reduce the use of pesticides and prevent the spread of pests17.

New plant diseases emerge due to a variety of factors and, in many cases, it is difficult to attribute certain pest invasions to the factor of large, monoculture fields.

However, the efforts to introduce more heterogeneity in the fields can be perceived as controversial. New plant diseases emerge due to a variety of factors and, in many cases, it is difficult to attribute certain pest invasions to the factor of large, monoculture fields. Besides, a significant part of modern agriculture is dependent on large acreage. If farmers or agricultural companies had to use heterogeneous fields, their profits would drop significantly. This strategy is not enforceable without the intervention of the government. To this end, a government may introduce subsidies for farmers who introduce more heterogeneity and biodynamic processes in their fields13.

Introduction of Sanitary Border Control

Sanitary border controls for plants and plant products are commonly implemented in most countries, and sometimes even within single countries, for example, in the case of local outbreaks of a plant pathogen. The World Trade Organisation employs multiple regulatory strategies and guidelines. The WTO Agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures of 1995 aims at keeping high standards of food safety while providing for efficient global trade18.

Under this agreement, WTO members can require the products to come from a pathogen-free area; they can introduce border inspections and put restrictions on the import of plant products when health concerns arise. The European Union has special regulations for protection against the introduction of plant pathogens from outside the EU, on the movement of plant products within the EU, and the management of disease outbreaks.

Protective measures against plant diseases are provided in Directive 2000/29/EC. Such actions can include a requirement for a phytosanitary certificate for plant imports, control of passengers’ luggage, inspections of plant health at the borders, etc.19. Undoubtedly, border controls reduce the risk of plant disease outbreaks. But they also come with opportunity costs; these necessary restrictions limit the efficiency of global food trade, reduce the benefits of the availability of certain seeds or plants around the world, and often place politicians and decision-makers in a problematic situation of a trade-off between either a loss of safety or a loss of profit, see Fig. 4.

Figure-4

Despite the constant development of technologies for border controls and quarantines, such measures are not absolutely safe. Often, they are limited to visual inspections or controls of rarely selected samples. This way, the risk remains that infrequent but viable pathogens can be missed during the inspection. Moreover, many disease agents may be benign in their native ecosystems but become a serious threat when transported into a new environment. For example, the pathogenic virus Cryphonectriaparasitica, the causative agent of chestnut blight, is harmless in Asia, but caused severe damage to chestnuts in North America and Europe when it was introduced in the 1900s 13.

Reducing Deforestation

The problem of newly introduced pathogens may potentially become very dramatic due to the current deforestation and gain of new agricultural areas in tropical and subtropical regions where new and unknown pathogens can enter the fields.

A solution would be for cities to offer more opportunities for people and for living places and natural habitats to be more distinctly separated from each other. Urban forests and parks will also lead to a better quality of life, as well as better protection from and avoidance of pandemics.

Protection against Natural Disasters

Also, border controls cannot prevent the spread of plant pathogens in the event of natural disasters and natural phenomena, such as storms and tornadoes. A few years ago, a thunderstorm called “Ivan” started in Colombia, South America, then travelled 1,000 km north through the United States and, later on, through Canada, as well. Thunderstorm “Ivan” brought insects from abroad which had not been living in the United States previously. Surprisingly, these insects were able to survive this form of natural transport from South to North America.

Another example is soybean rust, a plant pathogen that originated in Asia at the beginning of the 20th century and spread all across Africa and North and South America in the 1990s, where it caused massive economic losses 13. Due to climate change, the weather conditions may change dramatically; severe natural disasters may become much more frequent, which may contribute to the uncontrolled spread of plant pathogens across borders and even oceans and continents.

The question remains: how can we protect ourselves better from natural disasters? Humanity is still far too optimistic and believes that somehow the problem will be solved. Nevertheless, natural disasters increase with the ongoing climate crisis. There are several options to take into consideration, such as food reserves and building dams with large water reservoirs (artificial lakes), as well as increasing overall food safety. Other possible courses of action are also important, such as changing building regulations and updating building standards that have emerged over the last 500 years to address the natural disasters that humanity will experience within the next decades (for example, more wind-resistant buildings, etc.). This list includes only a few ideas and should not be considered final.

Monitoring Development on Field Sites

Monitoring systems can help to evaluate developments on field sites. Especially interesting are sensors that can measure different parameters and data on vitality, as well as microclimate parameters. The sensors send the data to a gateway, and from there to the digital infrastructure. Artificial intelligence (AI) will be taught in a deep-learning process to interpret the data in a humanlike process of creativity20. This data will be stored in a decentralised blockchain, making it impossible to change afterward. This could also secure food quality, as well as transparency concerning impacts on the climate, and provide secure and proper documentation of every farming step.

With data on the microclimate, it is moreover possible to predict developments throughout the field, long before plagues, water shortages in different field zones, insect attacks, etc. take place.

Comparing different field zones will also help to reduce the use of fertiliser, because humans might understand better how much fertiliser is necessary per field zone, and where less fertiliser might be used, see Fig. 5.

Figure-5

Satellite data is nowadays accessible even to small farmers (for example, data from the Copernicus satellite). This way, the farmer can observe the field from above and already recognise the different heterogeneity field zones, as well as the apparent changes in the field. Nevertheless, recognising stress factors appearing in a satellite picture, for example, when an area loses crops as a result of an insect infestation or disease outbreak, is already too late most of the time. Farmers will recognise the stress factors at a point when the negative impact has already taken place, and it is almost impossible to take effective action.

Therefore, direct and quasi-constant measurement with drones might be a third sustainable solution that would also help to fight climate change and save resources.

Outlook

Since plant diseases have led to notorious famines all over the world in the past, humanity needs to develop approaches to optimise farming and minimise the risk of losing whole harvests. Nowadays, there are no longer natural famines in the world; there are only political famines1. Nevertheless, climate change and overpopulation, as well as pandemics like COVID-19, might change the circumstances.

These are also reasons to devise solutions against emerging plant diseases and develop awareness of the influence of these factors. Factors contributing to new diseases are climate change and the overuse of pesticides, the destruction of natural habitats, and the pandemic situation around the world.

Solutions could include reducing monocultures, intensifying reforestation, introducing and improving sanitary border control, and using different types of intelligent monitoring technologies on field sites. Humanity needs a combination of all these measures to fight against the pandemic situation and the harmful effects of climate change, to prevent plant disease and, most importantly, to avoid hunger and suffering.

Summary

A recent report analysed food security against many factors, such as a pandemic situation, climate change, and environmental destruction.

The factors that drive emerging plant diseases put global food security and the biological integrity of natural habitats at risk. Apart from the overuse of pesticides and fertilisers, deforestation can destroy natural ecosystems and remove the physical barriers to the spread of plant pathogens. Finally, the possibilities of horizontal gene transfer, for example, from genetically modified plants or, possibly in the future, also insects, should be taken very seriously.

As a consequence, in the 21st century, there must be increased efforts to strengthen research, develop countermeasures and new methods, as well as to provide investments for the protection of sustainable development.

The authors would like to thank Prof. Dr. Sascha Spoun, president for years of support for the above seminar series at the Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany.

This article was originally published in The European Financial Review 01 September 2021. It can be accessed here: https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/global-food-security-after-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-times-of-climate-change/

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About the Authors

Jan-Gero Alexander Hannemann

Jan-Gero Alexander Hannemann studies Law and Digital Media at Leuphana University, Lüneburg. He studied with scholarships at the National University of Singapore (NUS) and University of Technology Sydney (UTS). He is president of the German Law Clinic umbrella organisation (BSRB). He is the author of the books StudentischeRechtsberatung und Clinical Legal Education in Deutschland and Praxisleitfaden Moot Court and many essays about German law and court decisions, such as NJW 2015, 1122.

Dr Maryna Psol

Dr Maryna Psol studied Biology. She has held a PhD in neuroscience from the University of Göttingen, Germany, since 2018. She is currently studying Law at Leuphana University, Lüneburg. She studied at Berea College in the USA and the Zaporizhzhia National University in Ukraine. Her studies were supported by scholarships from the DAAD, the US Department of State, and the Ministry of Education of Ukraine. She has authored various publications in the field of neuroscience and biochemistry.

Michael Palocz-Andresen

Michael Palocz-Andresen has been working as a full professor for Sustainable Mobility since 2018‭, ‬supported by the DAAD at the TEC Instituto Tecnológico‭ ‬y de Estudios Superiores in Mexico‭. ‬He became a guest professor at the TU Budapest‭, ‬Leuphana University‭, ‬Lüneburg‭, ‬and at Shanghai Jiao Tong University‭. ‬He is a Humboldt scientist and instructor at the SAE International in the USA‭.‬

References

The Emergence, Present and Future of Pandemics in Consideration of Climate

The Emergence, Present and Future of Pandemics in Consideration of Climate

By Rosimar Bernal, Elisa Ledermann, Clara Seitz and Michael Palocz-Andresen

Abstract

Pandemics have shown to be a great threat to the health, wellbeing, and development of Mankind around the world. The novel Coronavirus, Covid-19 has put into check the daily life and evidenced the many gaps and inequalities existing around the globe. It has been proven to be one of the most important factors of climate change is the changing developing and spreading viruses and bacteria. This report considers the triggering elements of the climate, the environment and the society for the pandemic and try to give an answer, how humans could avoid future catastrophic situation.

Introduction

Many of the viruses, parasites, and bacteria that may affect humans have an animal origin. Diseases or infections of animal origin which are naturally transmissible from vertebrate animals to humans are known as Zoonosis, they constitute a large amount of the known and unknown diseases. About 70% of arising infections are caused by microbes from an animal source, as examples could be named Ebola, Zika, HIV/AIDS, Dengue, and Coronaviruses (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV). About 1.7 million viruses are thought to habit mammal and avian hosts; among those, between 631 000 and 827 000 could infect humans. In the same way, an increase of disease outbreaks from approximately five infectious diseases a year has been registered, each one with pandemic potential [1] [2]. 

An outbreak or epidemic is defined as “a sudden rise of cases of a disease, injury or other health condition than expected in a given area among a specific group of people and a particular period with cases being related to each other” [3].   

Figure 1: Future strategies for avoiding pandemic situations

Figure 1

Triggering Factors for Future Pandemics  

Microbial Adaptation and Change 

Microorganisms inhabit human hosts, both internally and externally. They play a key role in the human ecosystem as natural flora, which acts as a defense barrier. Microbes can evolve, adapt and survive. Especially, acute respiratory viruses are among the viruses that continue to emerge and reemerge due to the great burden they are able to produce [4]. Mutations and genetic variations are also expected to occur. A more tangible example is Influenza, which from a virological perspective, evolves constantly into new strains, bringing with it an ongoing development of vaccines against new influenza strains. Yet, outbreaks from influenza are very common [5]. Even though there are no known new strains from the novel Coronavirus, multiple variants have been identified. The one that drawn more attention to them was one variant identified in the U.K. (B.1.1.7), another in South Africa (B.1.351), and in Japan/Brazil (P.1). To what extent the new variants may or may not affect the spreads and progression of the disease in an organism is being researched.  

Human Susceptibility to Infection  

Depending on our way of nutrition or usage of different medications, the balance of the defenses in the human body may be altered, making them more susceptible to get sick. Risk groups consisting of people with preexisting conditions suffering from diabetes, neurological disorders, liver, and chronic kidney disease or immuno-compromised patients were given special attention. How Covid-19 may affect the organism is being researched. 

Climate and Weather 

The physical environment and the changes that occur in it, influence to a wide extent how a microorganism may or may not affect its host. In the same way, the conditions outside the “host” may be decisive on the survival of the microbes and how they could be transmitted between different hosts, including from one animal species to another.  

Changing Ecosystems 

Ecological and environmental factors have a leading role in the rise of diseases and therefore from epidemics. They determine the speed of transmissibility and persistence of zoonotic infections. It directly affects human exposure to vector-borne diseases through distribution change, abundance, habitat associations, and in general the vector population, thus making it easier for a human being to be affected.   

Human Demographics and Behavior  

Growing and aging population, urbanization, immunocompromised groups, and “high-risk behavior” contribute to a great extent to the spread of viruses by facilitating the mobilization from one host to another. It is expected that with population growth, more RNA viruses like Ebola, hantavirus, and AIDS, will keep emerging because of the need to keep producing food from animal origin and cultivation fields [6]. Furthermore, directly related to the growing population amplified by climate change, water scarcity and insecurity are an existing threat.  

The United Nations estimates that over 2 billion people live in countries experiencing high water stress [7]. Regions facing water restrictions, where handwashing and poor sanitation are present and affected by water-borne diseases such as Cholera, Hepatitis A and E, are prone to have a higher lethality and the spread of viruses like Covid-19 increases. 

Economic Development and Land Use 

Business as usual and the way humans use natural resources without giving them enough time to replenish and therefore exceed the planetary boundaries have had detrimental effects in different spheres of life as we know it on Earth.  

According to the scenarios defined by the IPCC, there are four basic models for predicting the future development [8]:  

  • Scenario group A1: The world of global economic growth 
  • Scenario group A2: The “Everyone-fights-for-himself-world” 
  • Scenario group B1: The planned green world 
  • Scenario group B2: The world of green regions

Despite of Covid-19 impacts the worldwide development shows a growing tendency according to the A1-A2 scenarios. One factor in this development is the land-use change. As the name describes it, is a transformation from one use of the soil to another one. For example, to turn forests into agricultural fields, for human settlement and/or urbanization. This kind of spatial overlap enables different species to get in touch with each other. It means, the natural interactions from animals, microbes, in an ecosystem are altered and lightens a virus or disease to reach new hosts, amplifying the risk of transmission if humans are also in the equation. By clearing up forests for cattle use, the livestock comes in contact with wildlife. If an infected animal or a virus is searching for a host, it can likely mature in the available body, providing new pathways for pathogens to propagate. Various diseases have merged in the last decades as a consequence, mainly, from land-use change, among them, the SARS-CoV-2 [1], but also agricultural intensification and large-scale livestock farming have had a crucial role in other virus outbreaks [9]. 

International Travel and Commerce  

Global mobilization has been an enabler for economic development in the last years and has eased a cross-border exchange of goods, services, and technologies. To the same extent in which international mobilization has been helpful for the development of many societies, it has facilitated a rapid spread of epidemics. One of the first measurements that governments took to avoid disseminating the novel Coronavirus was travel restrictions and closing borders. Tendentially, the increase in the number of passengers is highly correlated with the quickness in which a virus can spread. These observations are not new but are dated to countless other outbreaks and introductions of diseases in new regions.

Two global Threats: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Climate Crisis   

The Covid-19 pandemic and the climate change impacts bare a lot of difference and similarities. Both pose a threat to humanity and its life-sustaining systems and are in need of a direct response under uncertainty, affect the world’s population and need corporate action to be tackled [10].  

Life Changing Trends  

Climate change and Coronavirus pandemic affect everyday life and work. Their expansion dynamics challenge intuition and short-term thinking and are hard to understand and relate to [11]. Nevertheless, public understanding is crucial in order to push policy makers and accept decisions and measures [12]. The danger of understanding the gravity of the situation too late to prevent the catastrophe is inherent in both the Coronavirus pandemic and Climate change. Therefore, in both crises the opportunity to take early actions was missed [11].  

Tipping Points 

Both bare global threats which can lead to irreversible change when exceeding a critical point. The control of the Coronavirus becomes highly difficult when reaching a certain abundance within a population. Similarly, huge changes may arise once temperatures have warmed beyond certain critical thresholds [11].  Processes like the changes in the polar jet stream or release of methane by melting permafrost will lead to great consequences [13].

Inequality across Global and Social Sphere  

Climate change and Coronavirus pandemic have unequal impacts across countries and social groups [11]. This is due to individual health conditions, differences in wealth and therefore ability to invest in safety measures and due to location and therefore greater exposure to for example extreme weather conditions [11]. Such an increase in inequality is endangering the global economic system as countries depend on each other.

Testing International Solidarity 

As climate change and the Coronavirus affect the globalized world, they will test international solidarity. Competitions for limited resources arise. Countries rather protect their own population. During the Coronavirus pandemic such behaviors could be observed in for example restricted export of sanitary material or the distribution of vaccines [11]. (ibid.). It is likely that we will not only experience similar behaviors during climate change but that the competition intensifies and extends to a larger scale [11].

Costs and Communication 

In crisis situations early action is essential. It is important to communicate risks and foster public engagement [11]. (ibid.). As Coronavirus is a health issue affecting everyone the urgency can be communicated comprehensible. Nevertheless, those countries which communicated the danger of the pandemic clearly and seriously were far more efficient in containing the disease than those sending inconsistent messages or trivializing the threats[11]. Communicating the personal consequences from climate change is critical in activating public understanding and action [14].  Another challenge of communication is to deliver the urgency of preventing disasters which lie in the future as in most cases the prevention is less costly than cure [11]. Nevertheless, the costs of limiting the individual freedom for the global common good often seem too great, whereas the benefits appear to be uncertain and lie in the future [15]. Therefore, it is of high importance that the right degree of political regulations, education and communication is found to foster preventive behavior and shift incentives [15]. 

Figure 2: Similarity and difference of influencing factors in the pandemic and in the climate change

Figure 2

Even though there are a lot of aspects combining the pandemic and climate change they are still handled and perceived differently. The Coronavirus pandemic seems to be “clear and compelling” whereas climate change is “indirect and diffuse” [11]. Measures like social distancing are clear, understandable and for a foreseeable period of time. Further the solution for Coronavirus, introducing the right vaccines, is much easier. “Any activities aiming for the reversal of climate change would likely take decades” and are much more complex [11]. Further, the time frame differs. “Humans are great at solving immediate problems, less so ones that feel distant” [16]. The consequences of the climate crisis reveal over an extended time period and have a rather indirect effect on everyday life [16]. The Coronavirus pandemic is at the moment on people’s minds and therefore the temporal distance is very small [16].

How can Human avoid Future Pandemics? 

To assess how future infectious diseases develop and spread in the future, it is important to summarize again how infections spread in the first place. Infectious diseases can be classified into two categories; infections spreading directly through contact or droplet exposure, and those infections that spread indirectly through vector organisms. Vector organisms are for example mosquitos and ticks. The transmission through the food chain, soil, and water is possible as well, although it is rather rare. Infectious diseases can be further classified by their natural origin; whether they had their origin in a human reservoir, called anthroponoses, or if they had their origin in an animal reservoir, called zoonoses. [17]. 

In regard to the transmission of infectious diseases, three components are especially important. One needs a pathogen, a vector, and the transmission environment. The pathogen is the bacteria or virus itself. Certain climate conditions are necessary for the survival, reproduction, distribution and transmission of these pathogens and vectors. The climate conditions are responsible for the geographical and seasonal distribution of infectious diseases. Further, weather conditions, hence short-term or current conditions, can affect the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks. [18]. 

Climate change is the consequence of cumulation of CO2 and other GHGs in the atmosphere. Tendencies are showing a continuous increasing development, despite of the Covid-19 pandemic caused interim negative impacts, see Fig. 3. 

Figure 3: Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

Figure 3

Global warming is favoring the geographical expansion of infectious diseases. Furthermore, extreme weather events may lead to more intense and clustered disease outbreaks, in addition to outbreaks at non-traditional places and times [18]. In the following the two main climate conditions: precipitation and temperature will be discussed in regard to their influence on vectors and pathogens. This will demonstrate the sensitivity of disease vectors and pathogens towards changing conditions. 

The Factor Precipitation

Reduced precipitation is connected to increased emergence of water-borne pathogens, due to lower river flows, which leads to a higher concentration of the pathogens. Heavy rainfalls, however, will also lead to an increase in fecal pathogens. Rain is stirring up the sediments in the ground, leading to the accumulation of fecal microorganisms [18]. Furthermore, humidity plays a crucial role in the distribution of air-borne diseases. For example, the survival and transmission of the human influenza were found to be bound to temperature and humidity, whereas low humidity leads to a quicker distribution [18]. 

The larval development of some vectors accelerates with an increase in rainfall in connection to an increase in temperature. The vector mosquito relies on stagnant water for its breeding site. Increased drought in wet regions might increase the rate of stagnant water [18]. Therefore, in some cases, climate change and the general increase of temperature and precipitation favors the development of disease vectors. Humidity plays a large role when it comes to the distribution of disease vectors. Therefore, if the average monthly humidity rate is under 60% the vector will struggle with survival. However, due to climate change, the temperature and humidity have been increasing in usually colder and dry countries, leading to a distribution of unlike diseases, such as West Nile Virus and Lyme disease [18]. 

The Factor Temperature  

The temperature is affecting the life cycle of a pathogen. Thereby, every pathogen has two temperature thresholds; the minimum and the maximum temperature in which it will be able to survive and reproduce. Therefore, the changing temperature is changing the life cycle of a pathogen. Furthermore, the reproduction rate increased to higher temperatures. For example, one parasite causing malaria, the plasmodium falciparum, will reproduce in 26 days at 20 °C and only 13 days at 25 °C. Rising temperature in water bodies and food environments might increase the living areas for pathogens. [18]. 

Temperature affects the spatial-temporal distribution of disease vectors. Vectors, which are usually found in low-latitude regions may habitat in mid- or high-latitude regions due to higher temperatures. Hence, this will lead to a higher expansion, in addition to a general geographical shift in diseases. Many well-known viruses, such as malaria, yellow fever and Lyme disease have already expanded their distribution to higher latitude areas due to higher temperatures [18].   

Figure 3: Impacts of increasing CO2 emission and mile stones of the climate protection measures

Figure 3

  1. 2012 – End of the 1st period of the Kyoto Protocol  
  2. 2020 – End of the 2nd period of the Kyoto Protocol 
  3. 2016 – Paris Agreement signed 
  4. 2020-2021 Covid.19 pandemic 
  5. 2050 Predicted population in the World in 2050: 8.7 billion. 

Distribution and Spreading Infectious Diseases through Climate Change  

As seen with the Covid-19 pandemic, through urbanization, global connectivity, international travel, and trade, invasive pathogens and vectors have a new ability to spread widely and cause transcontinental pandemics with public health, social and economic consequences [19]. In general, climate change impacts the transmission of infectious diseases through the altering of contact patterns of human – to – pathogen, human – to – vector, and human – to – host. There have been reports of higher outbreaks of infectious diseases when humans come in contact with pathogens or vectors due to changing weather conditions. For example, higher reports of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome have been registered, when mice enter urbanized areas searching for food during hazard season and transmitting hantavirus. [18].

Political Coping Mechanisms and Climate Change 

Climate change us expected worsen the control effects of pandemics. Even more, this process will lead to ecosystem degradation, which will then put pressure on food security, causing problems, such as malnutrition. Thereby political instability and population displacement are caused.

This might further lead to the breakdown of civil order, in addition to large-scale migration and regional conflicts. It is believed that this has the ability to weaken the global level coping mechanisms to pandemics. [18][19][20]. Therefore, countries need to act proactive towards the climate change crisis, and crises caused by climate change. Otherwise, the global connectivity will be destroyed, leading to an “everyone for themselves” policy, which is fatal in solving global problems collectively. In order to avoid future pandemics, humans need to become aware of the impacts changing climate conditions can have on infectious agents. 

Therefore, recognizing that climate change is indeed a factor of disease distribution, political decision-makers need to make the fight against the climate crisis. In addition to that, factors like Antibiotic resistance, the melting of the permafrost, and extreme weather events need to be highlighted and monitored, in order to circumvent negative developments in pandemics.  

Figure 4: Strategies of mitigation and adaptation, regarding future pandemics 

Figure 4

Outlook

What can humans learn from the Covid-19 pandemic? It is important to listen early to scientific calls for action as ignoring them will be much costlier in the long-run [11]. The Coronavirus pandemic highlights the importance of integrating scientists in local and global policy making but also in the media to influence the public opinion [12]. The Covid-19 pandemic showed that countries and policy makers are able to copy policies and actions made by front runners which have proven to be successful like for example social distancing. Similarly, there are also pioneer countries in terms of climate solutions which could also act as a role model for other governments [12].  

International agreements could decrease the chances of nationalistic or egocentric behaviors and placing powerful or wealthy parts of society over the world’s general population. Policymakers should be motivated to prioritize long-term safety and wealth over short-term costs and economic gain [11].. As already discussed, communication is essential. Formulating communication strategies, maintaining the trust in scientists and promoting the understanding and handling of risk situations can create a social push for preventative action [11].  

Peer pressure can generate behavioral changes. The effectiveness of individual behavior needs to be more visible and tangible so people are willing to accept the individual costs [15]. Communication is not only important for informing the public but also within international institutions to exchange knowledge and share best practices [12]. Further, the public is a powerful supporter in pushing actions from policy makers by putting them under pressure. How early and strict measures are introduced by policy makers is dependent on how the public perceives the severity of the threats [12]. Education is crucial as society needs to understand the consequences of the catastrophe and the uneven distribution of such across social and special spheres [21]. Nevertheless, politics must create a system where benefits are connected to sustainable behavior.  

Summary  

The recent report analyses three questions:  

  • How do current behaviors in crises shape the future strategies towards the climate change and future pandemics 
  • How does the current life style favor the emergence of pandemics? 
  • How will infectious diseases develop with influence of climate protection measures?

The Coronavirus pandemic gives human an advantage in how to handle global crises and the opportunity to reflect upon the challenges and the steps needed to prevent or prepare strategies for such events in the future. In conclusion, the most important lesson learned is that future international agreements are essentially important and climate protection measures must deeply consider the danger and the impacts of pandemics. Beside them, behavioral changes in crisis are necessary. Education and communication are the basic elements for avoiding future disasters.

In conclusion, the most important lesson learned is that behavioral changes in crisis are necessary. “The longer we wait to adapt our behavior, the more drastic the changes will have to be made in the future” [15].

This article was originally published in The European Financial Review 03 January 2022. It can be accessed here: https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/the-emergence-present-and-future-of-pandemics-in-consideration-of-climate/

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About the Authors

Rosimar Bernal

Rosimar Bernal has started her Bachelor at the Leuphana University Lüneburg in 2019 as an International Student from Panama. B.Sc Environmental Sciences as major and  Spatial Sciences as Minor. Currently, working for the Institute of Ecology from her University.

Elisa Ledermann

Elisa Ledermann has started her Bachelor in B.Sc Environmental sciences and economics at the Leuphana University Lüneburg in 2018. She is currently working different internships in order to find the workplace where she can bridge her strong conviction to nature preservation with her business sense. 

Clara Seitz

Clara Seitz has been studying the B.Sc Environmental Science and Law at the Leuphana University of Lüneburg since 2018. After finishing her Bachelor studies in 2021 she pursues on working towards the legal bar exam in Germany. She is currently working in the wind energy industry where she collaborates with a company on writing her bachelor thesis in the field of compliance and supply chain management.

Michael Palocz-Andresen

Michael Palocz-Andresen has been working as a full professor for Sustainable Mobility since 2018, supported by the DAAD at the TEC Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores in Mexico. He became a guest professor at the TU Budapest, the Leuphana University Lüneburg, and at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is a Humboldt scientist and instructor of the SAE International in the USA. 

Sources 

  • [1] IPBES (2020) ‘Workshop Report on Biodiversity and Pandemics of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Photo credits’, Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4147317. 
  • [2] WHO (2020) Zoonoses. Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/zoonoses (Accessed: 28 November 2020). 
  • [3] U.S Department of Health, Services, H. and for Disease Control, C. (2006) Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice, Third Edition: An Introduction.
  • [4] Clements, B. W. and Casani, J. A. P. (2016) ‘Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Disease Threats’, in Disasters and Public Health. Elsevier, pp. 245–265. doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-801980-1.00010-6. 
  • [5] Smolinski, M. S., Hamburg, M. A. and Lederberg, J. (2003) Microbial Threats to Health: Emergence, Detection, and Response. Available at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10636.html (Accessed: 28 December 2020)
  • [6] Holland, J. and Domingo, E. (1998) ‘Origin and evolution of viruses’, Virus Genes. Springer, pp. 13–21. doi: 10.1023/A:1007989407305.  
  • [7] UN (2018): EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sustainable Development Goal 6 Synthesis Report 2018 on Water and Sanitation. Available at https://www.unwater.org/publications/executive-summary-sdg-6-synthesis-report-2018-on-water-and-sanitation/   
  • [8] Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (2015). Emissionsszenarien. https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/informationsportal-klimawandel/standpunkt/klimaforschung/klimamodellierung/emissionsszenarien  
  • [9] Jones, B. A. et al. (2013) ‘Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(21), pp. 8399–8404. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1208059110.  
  • [10] Stephenson Disaster Management Institute (2015): What is disaster management. Available at: https://www.sdmi.lsu.edu/about-us/faqs/ (Accessed: 20 November 2020).  
  • [11] Manzanedo, R.D. and Manning, P. (2020): COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency. Published in: Science of the Total Environment 742 (2020) 140563  
  • [12] Klenert, D., Funke, F., Mattauch, L. et al (2020): Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation. Environ Resource Econ 76, 751–778  
  • [13] Letzter, R. (2019): Are We Really Running Out of Time to Stop Climate Change?. Published in: Live Science. Available at:  https://www.livescience.com/12-years-to-stop-climate-change.html (Accessed: 20 February 2021). 
  • [14] Masone, P. (2020): Why Did We Mobilise For COVID-19 And Not Climate Change? Published in: LSE. Available at: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/psychologylse/2020/05/17/why-did-we-mobilise-for-covid-19-and-not-climate-change/ (Accessed: 20 February 2021). 
  • [15]. Fuhrmann, H. and Kuhn, S. (2020): Parallels between the corona pandemic and climate change. Published in: Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik. Available at: https://www.die-gdi.de/die-aktuelle-kolumne/article/parallels-between-the-corona-pandemic-and-climate-change/ (Accessed: 20. November 2020).  
  • [16] Wetli, P. (2020): The Psychology of Coronavirus vs. Climate Change: Why We Mobilize for One, Not the Other. Published in: Science and Nature. Available at: https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/02/psychology-coronavirus-vs-climate-change-why-we-mobilize-one-not-other (Accessed: 20 November 2020). 
  • [17] Patz et. al (2003): Climate Change and infectious diseases. Journal Climate Change and Human Health. Chapter 6. pdf: http://www.debok.net/pdf/9191819274.pdf (Accessed: 29.11.2020)  
  • [18] Wu et. al (2016): Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation. Journal Environment International. Volume 86. Pages 14-23. ISSN 0160-4120 
  • [19] Hess, J. et al. (2020): Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats. BMJ, p. m3081. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3081 (Accessed: 28 December 2020) 
  • [20]. The World Bank (2009): Responding to Threaths of climate change mega-catastrophes. Development research group. Environment and energy team. Policy research working paper 5127   
  • [21]. UNESCO (2019): Climate Change Education and Awareness. Available at: https://en.unesco.org/themes/addressing-climate-change/climate-change-education-and-awareness (Accessed: 20 February 2021).  

Renewable Energy Use after the Pandemic

Renewable Energy Use after the Pandemic

By Ariane Evertz, Philipp Manuel Reynders, Sandra Felicitas Willert and Michael Palocz-Andresen

This paper aims to identify the positive effects that the global COVID-19 pandemic entails and how they can be retained within the social and economic recovery. The central finding is that the positive effects of reduced pollution, increased air quality and ecosystems recovery from human stressors need a technology push by the use of renewable energies and other green technologies alongside a societal pull into the direction of sustainability. Sustainable recovery is vital for our common future, for fighting climate change and diminishing health risks of future pandemics.

Introduction

The massive shock of the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in people’s lives, reducing mobility and thus social and industrial activities as well. The originated socio-economic disruption entailed various and, in most cases, positive consequences for the environment as well as great potential for future strategies of sustainability. Socio-economic changes occurred due to restricting policies like lockdowns and emerged from individual or societal adaptation strategies to the new situation like remote work.

The first part gives insight to the direct or indirect positive impact of the pandemic on environmental parameters like pollution, air quality or the condition of ecosystems and points out which socio-economic changes led to these improvements. The second part discusses the importance of renewable energy production and using for an environmental-friendly future. In the third part sustainability strategies will be considered, related to the “One Health” approach as one possible concept to strengthen society’s resilience towards future pandemics and further challenges.

Environmental Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic brought most social and economic activities to a halt as mobility was restricted to control the spread of the virus. The COVID-19 is primarily impairing the respiratory system and can even lead to death1. Counter steering policies like the mandatory use of face masks, social distance and lockdowns were enforced in the most affected countries worldwide and led to a huge socio-economic disruption which had more or less direct impact on the extent of emissions and pollution as well as on the condition of ecosystems 1.

Emissions and Air Quality

Transportation and industries are the major source of most pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) such as CO, CO₂, SO₂, NO₂ and particulate matter 1,2. These substances are harmful to human and environmental health by causing respiratory diseases, biodiversity loss and reinforcing climate change1. Even though the concentration of the individual air pollutants changed to a different extent, the concentration of particulate matter and NO₂ showed a significant drop, increasing the total air quality to good levels whereas GHG emissions dropped along with reduced consumption of fossil fuels and less energy demand, see Fig. 13. 

figure 1

These changes were especially visible for the world’s most polluted and densely populated cities that are most affected by rather unhealthy air quality levels as well. Air pollution is a crucial factor that affects the COVID-19 transmission, effect size and mortality rate as it causes several diseases that make the person concerned more vulnerable to infections1. Thus, not only COVID-19 can influence environmental factors but also vice versa. This means that we can prevent high infection rates in the future by changing our mobility and consumer habits as a healthy environment also facilitates better health conditions of the society.

Biodiversity and ecosystems

Biodiversity plays a major role in the emergence of pandemics. Deforestation and climate change mainly induce the current ongoing biodiversity loss that facilitates the spread of pathogens among populations. The ongoing destruction of the environment forces wildlife out of their natural habitats. This leads to wildlife shifting closer to urban areas which in-turn leads to more contact between wildlife and humans. The increased contact might result in a higher number of transmissions of zoonotic pathogens, such as SARS or Ebola, from their animal hosts onto humans4. This calls for an effective and sustainable protection and conservation of biodiversity, for instance by addressing deforestation as well as a drastic reduction of emissions for better air quality and healthier ecosystems5.

Due to restrictions in international travel, as well as local restrictions, ecosystems in and around tourist areas had time to recover and wildlife claimed back some of its territory. Though more medical waste is being produced due to the COVID-19 pandemic which poses new challenges for waste management authorities in the short-term, less waste in areas of tourism as well as less water, air and noise pollution had major effects on ecosystems in those areas1. For instance, rivers and seas reached a significant level of purity that could be observed by the changed water colour and the reappearance of many aquatic species in India, Italy and Thailand1.

Disruption as Incentive for Change

The vast changes in mobility and respectively human activities within the pandemic result in various short-term positive effects for society and the environment across the world. The local measures and observations reporting about these changes are references of a global phenomenon. Pollution and emissions tend to decrease significantly, hence improving air quality and quality of life whereas wildlife and ecosystems seem to recover from the absent intensive human activities1.

The current period indicates what range of benefits can be achieved from a lasting and sustainable reduction of economic and social activities as shown in Fig. 3. Disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic are proven to be vital factors in upsetting unsustainable business-as-usual practices in society and setting incentives for temporary or permanent change6. The before-mentioned positive effects on the environment and society are assumed to be only short-term and need a deep change in societal and economical structures to outlast the pandemic1.

Otherwise, positive trends will quickly go back to pre-lockdown status or even cause rebound effects that lead to an overshoot of previously projected emission levels despite decreased economic growth2. The adverse effects of global crises such as climate change or pandemics are disproportionately affecting world regions albeit their contribution to their origination, reinforcing the already existing injustice in the world. Sustainability strategies have great potential to secure a resilient recovery that is just, creates wealth and facilitates ecological restoration for the benefit of all, see Fig. 2.

Figure-2..

Figure-2..

Using Renewable Energies

The shut-down of economic activities resulted in a reduction of energy consumption and widely-reported environmental improvements1. These improvements, however, will diminish if large-scale industrial activities resume as before. For sustainable industrialization in post-pandemic times, it is essential to shift the industry sector to green technologies, energy efficiency, use of renewable energies and circularity to diminish the emissions of the industry without hampering the national economies, see Fig. 37,8,9.

figure 3

Sustainable Future

Sustainability is especially important for economic recovery as the industry sector has to revitalize production and jobs in the face of supply-demand imbalances caused by restrictions and other policies related to the pandemic2, see Fig. 410.

figure 4

The malfunction of today’s economy manifests not only in more obvious aspects like the sovereign debt crisis, economic stagnation and unemployment, but also in environmental pollution and reinforcement of climate change11.

The past showed that currently dominant practices and conceptions of economies, more precisely the separate treatment of pressing problems and the rest upon linear processes or the conception of unlimited economic growth, are rather leading to the amplification of these challenges than to their resolution12. Concepts of a slow-growth or no-growth economy aim to find an integrated solution that considers the complex interrelationships of economic, social as well as environmental challenges and to minimize the risk of rebound effects and lock-in to carbon-intensive industry structures13. The design of supporting structures where economic and social activities occur is essential for sustainability transitions3. Hence, green behaviour of companies and a sustainable industry would most likely induce a change in individual consumption patterns by acting as infrastructure that limits consumer choices on exclusively sustainable options of supply and services, thus is minimizing the occurrence of unsustainable consumption on the whole4.

Companies have a great responsibility in designing greener products for the market, nudging sustainable consumption behaviour and promoting low-carbon interventions5. Moreover, certain procedures adapted in the circumstances of the pandemic, like more hygienic workspaces with proper distances and home office, can be seen as guiding models to minimize the future risk of spreading of any infectious communicable disease and to increase the general flexibility of the personnel in post-pandemic times1. Cleaner production and sustainability considerations benefit the future health and industry. Policymakers have a key role in scaling up low-carbon interventions in industries by dedicating a share of the recovery budget to low-carbon measures and promoting already existing best-practices in the industry 14.

Most economic and social activities highly depend on the provision of energy15. Reverting economic growth and consumption will not allow for the perpetuation of lowered energy demand like the way it was induced by the exceptional situation of the pandemic and will increase emissions and pollution again1.

Green technologies such as electric vehicles will probably get more popular in the process of electrification and will increase the total demand for clean energy in the near future.

The extension of renewable energy systems can lower the demand for conventional energy sources, namely fossil fuels and nuclear energy – both are associated with considerable environmental pollution and health risks. While sufficiency – on individual and societal level – remains a pivotal strategy to pave the way for the resilient implementation of sustainability in industries, renewable energy sources like wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal heat and biomass play a crucial role in future energy production by avoiding resource-overuse and harmful pollution to make social and economic activities as clean as possible1.

Furthermore, green technologies such as electric vehicles will probably get more popular in the process of electrification and will increase the total demand for clean energy in the near future. The implementation of a renewable energy system hence needs to be accelerated by the provision of certain infrastructure such as grid extension or grid storage to stabilize the energy system against the rising energy demand and variable weather conditions. Investments should ideally be geared to minimize pollution and promoting the use of renewable energy sources13.

Energy systems play a crucial role in the sustainability transition. They help to make social and economic activities as clean as possible by avoiding resource-overuse and harmful pollution1. Amongst the various types of pollution, air pollution is one of the most urgent threats to human and environmental health. Air pollutants increase the mortality rate and cause several respiratory diseases like asthma1,2. In addition, air pollutants are also negatively affecting ecosystems and their biotic communities, for instance N- and PM-emissions pose a meaningful threat to biodiversity, especially in nutrient-poor ecosystems. This contributes to the ongoing biodiversity loss that diminishes ecosystem resilience and facilitates the spread of pathogens among populations, which increases the risk of transmissions of zoonotic pathogens from animal hosts to humans as well2. Consequently, air pollution is positively affecting the COVID-19 transmission rate in two ways – by making the person concerned more vulnerable to infections and by reinforcing the transmission rate of diseases among populations and onto humans.

Perspective on the Pandemic: One Health

Given the overarching impact not only anthropogenic air pollution but also all other human made influences have on the global ecological system, it is imperative to find an appropriate approach to this complex interconnectedness. The pandemic’s roots are to be found in human encroachment in ecosystems, as Córdoba-Aguilar et al. (2021) have pointed out the excessive land use and exploitation of natural spaces as well as resources, and the increased human mobility that help pathogens to reach all corners of the world. They compare the Corona pandemic to previous zoonoses like the HIV pandemic or the Spanish Flu. All in all, they state that all those emerged from “avoidable interactions” with ecosystems, which mainly means human encroachment in natural areas9. This includes illegal wildlife trading, which has especially been a debate in the Corona context, see Fig. 514.

figure 5

As depicted in Fig. 5, most vector-borne diseases are directly or indirectly fuelled by the destruction of nature. Córdoba-Aguilar et al. (2021) also have summarized the main reasons why biodiversity and nature are crucial for pandemic prevention15. To begin, natural areas without human infrastructure serve as buffers between animal pathogen carriers and humans – high diversity among species helps stabilize and balance the ecosystem and prevents one species from multiplying exponentially. Moreover, the so-called dilution effect sets in when pathogens are distributed more evenly among several species. A previously mentioned risk for zoonoses is the illegal handling of wildlife and the accompanying degradation of natural spaces. The authors’ fourth mentioned aspect is climate change and deforestation, as the rising temperatures create the possibility for certain vectors to spread to different areas than before.

The last and maybe most fundamental issue is the unsolved contradiction of growth-fixated capitalism and the planetary boundaries and the requirement for nature to regenerate and restore. This is the driver of all of the aspects mentioned above, and it is time to rethink our relationship to nature, if we seek to prevent or at least mitigate the climate crisis, future pandemics and suffering in general15.

The concept of viewing the earth as one ecologically interconnected system with human health, nature and biodiversity as interacting parts is called One Health. Each element’s state of the One Health concept is dependent on the wellbeing of the other elements. Although we are far from understanding the earth system’s complex reciprocities, it is worth assuming that biodiversity generally serves our planet’s health. On the individual level, research has shown how interaction with nature, such as visiting the park or the forest, can significantly enhance mental and physical health.

Moreover, transdisciplinary research is one of the concept’s cornerstones. It is based on informing communities, raising awareness for the importance of ecosystem preservation, as well as about benefits people can personally get from taking part in restoration efforts. Also, cooperation not only between different international researchers, but also with indigenous communities is crucial for successful conservation because of their valuable locally shared knowledge. Another reason to promote One Health is the endeavour to directly work with stakeholders who are and will be affected by the consequences of nature’s deterioration, and at last, to create a bridge between scientists and policymakers to actively change real-world circumstances for the better14. One Health needs to be administered on a global level, see Fig. 6.

figure 6

To avoid future pandemics there is a need for “a healthy balance between prevention and treatment”13. According to Breed et al. (2020) COVID-19 is a wake-up call for humanity to shift its focus to ecosystem restoration as a public health intervention. “The required paradigm shift can be supported by recognition that ecological degradation is driving many public health problems, and we cannot solve these public health problems without tackling ecological degradation”16. The transdisciplinary research collective has exposed two major knowledge gaps: The lack of a “quantification of individual health benefit”, as well as “population health benefits” that come from ecological restoration16. Moreover, they developed a transdisciplinary action plan that is necessary for establishing an empirical scientific basis for future research to rely upon.

Breed et al. (2020) emphasize the necessity to define causalities between ecological restoration and human health benefits. In order to gain a quantitative foundation, research must monitor both restoration and health outcomes for evaluation. Another point addresses the importance of interaction with local communities. These need to participate in the research process in order to gain knowledge as diverse as possible. Lastly, only through decision-makers it is possible to implement the necessary restoration measures. To sum it up, Breed et al. (2020) make a case for ecological restoration: They see it as “a clearly identifiable pathway to tackle some of our most critical challenges, as it becomes increasingly clear that the human and ecological health crises are intimately interwoven”17.

Outlook

Renewable energies are key to decouple any social or economic activity from high resource use and pollution, which is why they need to be promoted.

Global challenges like future pandemics and climate change will only be overcome if we acknowledge the interweaving of human and ecological health. Ecological restoration and biodiversity conservation will be imperative regulators. The experience of this devastating pandemic must serve as a leverage point for dramatic structural change and international cooperation if we seek to save lives, ecosystems and perspectives for future generations.

Renewable energies are key to decouple any social or economic activity from high resource use and pollution, which is why they need to be promoted. Investments in sustainability innovations and processes should be highly encouraged as it is comprehensively worthwhile for mitigating risks, saving costs as well as facilitating a healthy and secure life now and in the future. Further efforts are needed in ecosystem protection, but also regulation of wildlife markets and factory farming for meat production is crucial.

The One Health concept is a way to do justice to the complexity of the world’s environmental interconnectedness and the approach has the potential to unify scientists and civilians on an international transdisciplinary level. The concept brings a fundamental issue to light: The way we comprehend wealth is not aligned at all with the goal of universal wellbeing and ecological and social health. It is essential to rethink our definition of prosperity at this point and foster inter- and transdisciplinary research on cross-sectorial sustainability to successfully mitigate risks of global challenges.

Conclusion

This paper aimed at elaborating the effects on the environment that came from socio-economic restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the role of environmental destruction in the emergence of such pandemics with emphasis on the close interconnectedness of human health and the health of ecosystems. During lockdown periods, major improvements in emissions have been observed in areas that were especially exposed to low air quality before. As air quality facilitates a healthy environment and society, it becomes clear that air pollution also has a major impact on the transmission rate of pathogens.

The authors would like to thank Prof. Maik Adomßent for years of support for the above seminar series in the Complementary studies at the Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany.

This article was originally published in The European Financial Review 11 February 2022. It can be accessed here: https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/renewable-energy-use-after-the-pandemic/

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About the Authors

Ariane Evertz

Ariane Evertz has been studying cultural studies at the Leuphana University Lüneburg and sustainability science since 2019. She is engaged in sustainability projects like Food-Coops and Lüneburg 2030+, the latter aiming at a sustainability transformation starting from city communities.

Philipp Manuel Reynders

Philipp Manuel Reynders studies business administration with a focus on marketing management and social media and information systems as his minor at the Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany. He worked as a freelance project assistant for the “German Social Accident Insurance for the Health and Welfare Services”.

Sandra Felicitas Willert

Sandra Felicitas Willert studies environmental sciences and spatial sciences. at the Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany Her studies incorporate natural sciences such as basic chemistry and ecology as well as social sciences such as sustainability communication and environmental education.

Michael Palocz-Andresen

Michael Palocz-Andresen has been working as Herder-professor since 2018, supported by the DAAD at the TEC de Monterrey Mexico. He became a full-professor at the University West-Hungary, a guest professor at the TU Budapest, the Leuphana University Lüneburg and the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is a Humboldt scientist and an instructor of the SAE International in the USA

References

5 Practical Tips for a Less Stressful Business Trip to Yas Island Abu Dhabi

business trip

Many business organisations aim to reach the global market. Even small and startup enterprises have their eyes on the international business scene. After all, it is the most crucial competitive strategy, especially since technology has made international transactions a breeze.

But despite the efficacy of technology in expanding business operations, genuine and personal connections are still crucial to globalisation. This is why many people still go on overseas business trips.

For many, going on business trips may seem luxurious. Still, those who actually frequently hop on a plane to accomplish something for work know that business trips are rather stressful arrangements.

First of all, you deal with jetlag. Then, if you’re flying economy, you’ll spend hours and hours in a cramped sitting spot. On top of that, there’s rarely any opportunity to mix pleasure into the arrangement since the trip is mainly focused on getting where you need to go to get work done.

If you visit Yas Island Abu Dhabi for business, your travels don’t need to be like the experience described above. While you may face some discomfort along the way, you can beat those by carefully planning the trip to eliminate the usual hassles and actually find time for pleasure.

So, if you want a more pleasant business trip to Yas Island Abu Dhabi, here are five tips you should follow:

1. Make sure you’re healthy prior to the trip

Load up on your vitamins and get some exercise. Physical activity is effective in reducing stress hormone levels. Studies also show that exercise-induced endorphins help reduce stress-related symptoms.

The fast pace of your life during the business trip will require a fit and healthy body. You’ll have an easier time doing what you need to if your body’s free from aches and other discomforts.

2. Include relaxation when planning for the trip

If you will be staying at one of the top hotels in Abu Dhabi, remember to check if their services include relaxation amenities.

After a long day of travel and work, you need to make sure your body recuperates properly. Don’t just head straight to bed. Getting some much-needed pampering for an hour or two will greatly impact how you feel the following day.

There’s nothing wrong with adding a bit of fun to your business trip, even if it’s for just a moment. After all, stress can affect your productivity – and not in the best way, either.

Whether it’s a quick stroll down Yas Beach, an hour-long massage at the spa at DoubleTree by Hilton, or even just a leisurely coffee hour before or after a meeting, set aside time to unwind. If you’re heading somewhere new, have a moment to take in the scenery.

Who knows? If you explore other places besides your business meeting venue, you may even get the opportunity to expand your network.

3. Research the location

There are always lovely places to see on Yas Island, which offers something new for you to see and do. If they’re nearby, it won’t be too much of a stretch for your time to include them in your itinerary.

Business trips should be enriching, and discovering a new place is one great way to secure such an experience. You can use various phone apps or simply go online and type the events and other interesting provisions. Don’t forget to add “Yas Island” with your search query so the results are narrowed down to your destination.

4. Forget public transport

Getting to your intended destinations fast is crucial when you’re trying to stick to a schedule. This is where car leasing can come in handy.

According to Emirati travel experts, renting a vehicle is more economical than riding a taxi, not to mention more convenient than riding a bus. Plus, it will give you the freedom to include destinations of interest in your itinerary and to rest and recreate in between trips.

Many car leasing and rental companies have a vast collection of automobiles you can choose from while offering better rates throughout the year. They pay closer attention to every client’s specific requirements to ensure complete satisfaction with their service. You can get a vehicle that will go well with the image you need to maintain, as well as your driving style, without creating a big dent in your travel budget.

5. Use the power of your hotel’s concierge

If you wish to eat at a five-star restaurant, check out a theatre performance, or get tickets to a concert during the trip, your hotel concierge can take care of those for you if you’re staying at prime accommodation. All you have to do is tell them what you want, and the concierge will use their connections to make your request happen.

The Takeaway

Business trips that are often perceived as stressful can be transformed into more enjoyable experiences with careful planning. Prioritise your health, choose convenient transportation, and incorporate unwinding into the itinerary. Yas Island is an excellent destination, after all. With the help of your hotel concierge, you can enhance your overall trip to make it both productive and pleasurable.

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Building Investment Strategies: Becoming an Investment Advisory Specialist in Australia

investments

The field of investment advisory is undergoing a significant metamorphosis in Australia, where there is an increasing demand for competent investment advisory specialists. Economically savvy individuals are needed to help navigate complex financial landscapes and guide both individuals and businesses towards achieving their financial aspirations. This article delves into why investment strategies are crucial in this field and will shed light on how one can become an investment advisory specialist in Australia.

Understanding the Role of an Investment Advisory Specialist 

An investment advisory specialist is a seasoned professional who provides comprehensive advice on a range of financial matters. They typically work with diverse clientele, extending from individual investors to commercial enterprises, offering them a gamut of services such as investment management, income tax preparation, and estate planning. 

The main goal of an investment advisor is not just to provide advice but to directly impact the financial objectives of their clients. For instance, they help clients sift through numerous financial options and recommend investments that are best suited to their savings objectives, risk appetite or business goals. As part of their daily work, they stay abreast of changes in financial regulations and economy trends in order to provide the finest advice possible.

The Importance of Building Robust Investment Strategies 

A cogent investment strategy is akin to a roadmap, outlining your financial goals and the steps you’ll take to reach these. It is essentially a plan of action, tailored to an individual’s or a business’s specific needs and aspirations.

Having robust investment strategies is crucial as it offers several advantages. It not only serves as a guiding post, helping investors stay the course during volatile market times but also aids in optimised asset allocation, keeping risk levels within acceptable boundaries. It’s important to remember though, every investment bears some degree of risk, hence, effective risk management is an inherent part of constructing a solid investment strategy.

Pathway to Becoming an Investment Advisory Specialist in Australia 

Though the journey to become an investment advisory specialist in Australia differs for everyone, some fundamental steps remain fairly common. The initial step involves acquiring a bachelor’s degree in finance, economics or a related field. Post-graduation, certifications like Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Financial Planner (CFP) can augment your credibility as a competent advisor.

Securing internships or entry level positions at institutions offering financial advice services can provide practical experience. Continuous learning is indispensable in this ever-evolving field. Therefore, staying updated with current finance-related regulations, global economic trends and industry best practices is non-negotiable.

Key Skills Required for an Investment Advisory Specialist 

Effectively bridging the gap between clients and their financial goals requires a conducive blend of both soft and hard skills. Soft skills such as excellent communication, critical reasoning, attentiveness to detail and problem-solving capacity equip advisors to comprehend and cater to distinct client requirements. 

Mastery of specific hard skills like a stellar understanding of financial markets, ability to interpret complex financial reports and an extensive comprehension of diverse investment products is vital too. Further, given the sensitive nature of the financial information they handle, they must adhere to the highest ethical standards and maintain total confidentiality. 

Future Scope and Opportunities — Investment Advisory in Australia 

The landscape for investment advisory in Australia currently holds significant promise. The continuous economic growth coupled with the increasing population aspiring to achieve financial security translates into a high demand for financial strategy specialists. This demand is projected to grow in the coming years. 

Furthermore, the field offers ample avenues for specialisation such as retirement planning, estate planning or tax planning. Like any profession, it does pose its challenges and rewards. Anticipating and adapting to the changing market conditions and laws, managing client relationships, may be challenging. But, witnessing aspiring investors making positive strides towards their financial objectives can be immensely rewarding.

Conclusion 

In conclusion, the role of an investment advisory specialist in Australia is multi-faceted and meaningful. Through the application of well-crafted investment strategies, they play a vital part in providing financial direction to individuals and businesses alike. For anyone harbouring aspirations towards this career, it certainly poses a promising future. The essence of success in this role hinges greatly on continual learning and building robust investment strategies, both of which are prerequisites to thrive and create an impressive impact in the ever-evolving world of finance.

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Unveiling Golden Opportunities: A Strategic Guide to Gold Trading with CFDs

Unveiling Golden Opportunities

In the world of online trading, the allure of gold remains timeless, and coupling this precious metal with Contracts for Difference (CFDs) presents a strategic avenue for investors. This comprehensive guide explores the nuanced strategies and golden opportunities that arise when trading gold with CFDs, shedding light on the role of CFD trading platforms and the quest for the best gold trading app.

The Precious Symphony: Understanding Gold Trading with CFDs

Before delving into strategic insights, it’s crucial to understand the fundamental dynamics of gold trading with CFDs. This section explores the inherent qualities of gold as a sought-after asset and how CFDs amplify the potential for flexibility and efficiency in gold trading.

Crafting Golden Strategies: A Tactical Approach to Gold Trading with CFDs

Strategies form the backbone of successful gold trading with CFDs. This section provides actionable insights into crafting winning strategies, including leveraging technical analysis tools and implementing risk management techniques. Traders will gain valuable insights into navigating the unique dynamics of the gold market.

The Rise of CFD Trading Platforms: Your Gateway to Gold Success

The evolution of CFD trading platforms has transformed the landscape of online trading. This section explores the rise of CFD trading platforms, emphasizing their pivotal role in executing strategic gold trading decisions. From real-time market data to advanced charting tools, these platforms provide the necessary infrastructure for success.

Navigating the Digital Gold Rush: Choosing the Right CFD Trading Platform

Selecting the ideal CFD trading platform is a pivotal decision for traders entering the digital gold rush. This section offers guidance on evaluating platform features, considering user experience, and ensuring compatibility with gold trading strategies.

Unlocking Convenience: The Quest for the Best Gold Trading App

In the era of mobile trading, the best gold trading app can empower traders with unparalleled convenience. This section explores the features that make an app stand out, including user-friendly interfaces, real-time market updates, and seamless execution of gold trades.

Conclusion: Seizing Golden Opportunities with CFDs

Armed with a strategic guide, a profound understanding of gold trading with CFDs, and the right trading tools, investors can navigate the complexities of the gold market with confidence. This article emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between CFD trading platforms, gold trading, and the quest for the best gold trading app – a trifecta that unveils golden opportunities for those seeking success in the world of online trading.

By leveraging CFDs, adopting strategic approaches, and embracing cutting-edge trading platforms and apps, investors can seize the golden opportunities that the world of gold trading has to offer.

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Conscious Leadership Model: Effective Leadership Strategies for Strong Social Innovation Initiatives  

By Mostafa Sayyadi and Michael Provitera  

The world of business is exposed to rapid changes, and corporate social innovation has become a key way for companies to resolve social problems while growing their businesses. This article shows how effective leadership in corporate social innovation, which we call as Conscious Leadership Model, can make a big difference in the business world. 

Introduction 

We cover the six critical ingredients for strong corporate social innovation initiatives to successfully leverage a company’s capacities and assets for the greater social good. Leadership vision and commitment is one of these six critical ingredients. Next, this article points out the Conscious Leadership Model that can make corporate social innovation leadership successful, helping businesses use their resources and skills to make a social impact. We thoroughly examine this new leadership model to cultivate effective corporate leadership for social innovation. The article also continues talking about how to include corporate social innovation in a company’s conscious leadership. The narrative shows how innovation can be linked to corporate leadership, providing a detailed model of how to incorporate corporate social innovation into conscious leadership. In particular, we provide the three-step learning process to effectively integrate corporate social innovation into corporate leadership – meeting business objectives while considering social issues. Our mission is to offer guidance on advancing corporate social innovation, like launching small pilot projects and aligning business objectives with social impact. 

Companies that are breaking the mold are moving beyond corporate social responsibility to social innovation. These companies are the vanguard of the new paradigm. They view community needs as opportunities to develop ideas and demonstrate business technologies, to find and serve new markets, and to solve longstanding business problems. ____ Rosabeth Moss Kanter [1] 

The Six Ingredients of Strong Corporate Social Innovation Initiatives 

First, let’s look at this handy guide for leaders seeking to embrace corporate social innovation as an innovation and growth strategy in their corporate leadership. Corporate social innovation involves companies finding creative solutions to social problems using their available resources and talent. [2] [3] [4] The following critical ingredients should underpin any comprehensive definition of corporate social innovation. These include:  

1. Leadership Vision and Commitment  

The first ingredient of strong corporate social innovation initiatives is leadership vision and commitment in which leaders play a pivotal role in setting their company’s social vision, embedding social value creation within company cultures, and nurturing an atmosphere supportive of this activity. Leaders’ support and dedication play a crucial role in mobilizing stakeholders, allocating resources, and driving social innovation initiatives forward. [5] [6] [7] 

2. Shared Value Creation  

Second, we also use what we call shared value creation, and we build upon this idea through corporate social innovation actions and beyond their benefits for society, creating tangible and intangible economic value for businesses through tangible and intangible measures of social return on investment (ROI). 

3. An Effective Structure and Culture to Drive Social Value Creation  

The third ingredient of strong corporate social innovation initiatives is an effective structure and culture to drive social value creation. Here we integrate social innovation into an organization which involves taking into account its business model, its structure, its system, and most importantly, its culture. In particular, responsiveness to society must be prioritized to foster lasting social value creation. [8] [9] [10] 

4. Stakeholder Involvement  

The next ingredient of strong corporate social innovation initiatives is stakeholder involvement. [11] [12] [13] External stakeholders such as civil society, public institutions, and non-government organizations (NGOs) play an essential role in defining social problems and finding suitable solutions. In addition, executives should not take away from the employees, who constitute the first stakeholder group in the city.  

5. Social Empathy and Awareness  

The fifth ingredient of strong corporate social innovation initiatives is social empathy and awareness. [14] [15] For an enterprise to successfully undertake social innovation initiatives, its social empathy and awareness capabilities must be strong and continually developed concerning particular social challenges it must confront and then look for bold, innovative solutions to overcome them. Incorporating this dimension underlines the necessity of industry-specific social innovation initiatives. 

6. Ability to Innovate when Solving Social Problems  

The last ingredient of strong corporate social innovation initiatives is the ability to innovate when solving social problems. Many of the organizations have capitalized on the significance of corporate social innovation capabilities. These corporations have demonstrated they are adept at finding novel approaches for solving societal challenges using skills and technology while creating methodologies that benefit society and business.

Strong Corporate Social Innovayion Initiatives (1)

Figure 1: The Six Ingredients of Strong Corporate Social Innovation Initiatives 

Conscious Leadership Model  

Executives can develop conscious leadership through implement the following three-step learning process: 

  1. Step One: run a Got Want Gap Analysis 
  2. Step Two: record the want portion of the analysis coupled with the strategy situation initiatives. 
  3. Step Three: implement three intangible strategic initiatives. One incorporating Human capital, two, incorporating Organizational Capital, and three, expanding the organizational social capital. 

We suggest that leaders start by launching small pilot projects for social innovation. When those are successful, the lessons learned can be used to expand the efforts more broadly. Training all employees at all company levels on social issues is also crucial. This builds an understanding so everyone can help come up with solutions.  

Defining and tracking clear metrics also lets you monitor the social and business value created. [16] Check on progress regularly to stay accountable. Developing processes to gather input from different groups, including their needs and perspectives, keeps solutions focused on what matters most to society. Visibly rewarding and praising employees for demonstrating the desired values and behaviors is a positive reinforcement.  

When corporate social innovation is approached carefully, with dedicated effort over time, leaders can transform culture to embed social responsibility fully. This ultimately leads to positive change for communities and builds long-term value for the company.  

The Main Challenges Ahead  

Executives can develop conscious leadership to create innovative solutions to social problems. However, employees don’t want to change up their regular routines to do new socially focused stuff. Plus, it’s hard to measure whether the social projects are making a difference for people. So, it’s very tough to know the real value created. Furthermore, executives face many other challenges – getting people on board, balancing business and social goals, showing the impact, and dealing with more opinions. It’s tough. But if they stay committed and keep working at it, companies can push through the obstacles in progress.  

In Conclusion 

This article delves into understanding how effective leadership in corporate social innovation can provide more innovative solutions to solve social problems and bring about positive social change. This article aims to understand how the leadership of corporate social innovation can effectively address social challenges and contribute to sustainable and inclusive development. This article highlights the growing importance of integrating corporate leadership in social innovation research. To do this, this article proposes the Conscious Leadership Model to foster sustainable practices and approaches within corporate social innovation initiatives. The prominence of these discussions is reflected in this proposed three-step learning process related to corporate social innovation in the field.

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About the Authors 

Mostafa SayydiMostafa Sayyadi works with senior business leaders to effectively develop innovation in companies, and helps companies—from start-ups to the Fortune 100—succeed by improving the effectiveness of their leaders. 

Michael ProviteraMichael J. Provitera is an Associate Professor at Barry University. He is an author of Level Up Leadership published by Business Expert Press.  

 

References 

How Generative AI Will Impact Payments in 2024 

Digital Wallet using smartphone

By Zachary Jarvinen

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already in use within the payment industry, primarily in the form of Machine Learning (ML), which is most commonly used to combat fraud. However, the usage of AI is increasing rapidly, especially creative uses of generative AI, which refers to the creative extrapolation and the creation of new ideas. Here are some specific use cases that will become much more common across payments in 2024. 

Use of generative AI and ML in combating payment fraud 

ML has been used for some time in combating payment fraud, particularly in evaluating transactions and flagging behaviors that are associated with fraud. Suspicious cases can be rejected or passed on for further scrutiny by humans and other systems. 

The initial use of ML was to create static rule-based systems that were generated for fraud detection. Next, the use of machine learning was expanded to collaboratively enhance the static models of fraud detection by continuously leveraging live data, with the latest models adding generative AI. 

Generative AI is being tested and used to create new patterns to train ML systems so that they can get stronger and more robust quickly without the risk of real fraud. Generative AI can mimic the kinds of behaviors fraudsters might commit, and in addition, the criticism of generative AI for making up information or “hallucinating” is actually an advantage because it can come up with new patterns for training that can only make systems stronger. 

Another area where generative AI is employed is to combat fraudulent uses of generative AI itself—especially in fraudulent identity creation. In fact, this is one of the fastest-growing forms of fraud, comprising more than 85% of identity fraud cases. “Synthetic identity fraud” is powered by generative AI, making it challenging to detect using traditional methods. Interestingly, generative AI is very useful in detecting the fingerprints of generative AI in fraudulent identities. Many companies already specialize in detecting and combating fraudulent usage of generative AI.  

Use of generative AI in streamlining payment approval processes 

Onboarding is the process of setting up a merchant to accept online payments. One of the slowest points of onboarding for any payment provider is gathering business information and creating the many forms needed for completing underwriting, filing regulatory documents, assessing processing fees, and more. For new merchants, this is a time-consuming and difficult process where they lack expertise. 

Companies are beginning to experiment with generative AI to speed up the process of completing these documents. One approach is to engage in custom, interactive interviews and allow AI to generate much of the needed documentation automatically. This limits human input rather than manually entering repetitive information. 

In addition, much of the onboarding process consists of providing the customer with a great deal of legal information that must be acknowledged and accepted for regulatory and legal requirements to be met. This information must also be generated individually for each customer and must be explained carefully. Generative AI is useful both for completing these documents and for providing easy-to-read summaries that can speed up the acceptance process. More advanced usage can even include AI-created interactive chatbots that can explain the process as it happens. 

Use of generative AI in streamlining customer checkout experience 

ML and generative AI will be utilized more widely across the payment experience, including the customer experience. One prominent example is AI-driven chatbots in customer service. This use case extends to active shopping, where generative AI can intelligently offer additional products and services to complement items a customer is actively purchasing. Additionally, chatbots can help answer common customer questions.  

As more businesses turn to a single SaaS solution to run day-to-day operations like appointment scheduling, accounting, and payments, the concept of embedded payments has emerged. Embedded payments are built into the software application, creating more natural payment flows that are consistent with the existing user interface—as opposed to third-party branded payment forms and redirects. In an article on how generative AI can help improve embedded payments, Tom Randklev, Global Head of Product at Cellpoint Digital, said that AI can improve upon embedded payments and continue to streamline checkout experiences: “Consumer convenience plays to the very front of this one, where embedded payments have already made the experience incredibly smooth—it’s a one- or two-click experience to get from product selection to a payment, and I think generative AI will continue to accelerate that,” Randklev said. 

Use of generative AI to predict consumer behavior 

Generative AI, in combination with ML, is also going to lead to increased personalization of services by analyzing consumer behavior to predict future purchase decisions and how much they are likely to spend. It will streamline the experience by continuing to offer purchasers exactly what they want at the right time, even down to payment method choice. This can help businesses tailor their offerings to meet the needs of individual customers, increase customer loyalty, and drive revenue growth. Examples of this could include personalized loyalty programs, interactive chatbots to help in the purchase of high-end and complex products and services, and offering more complete and descriptive product information to help in decision-making at the point of sale.  

A survey by Edgar, Dunn and Company of over 100 payments professionals found that fraud detection and improving customer service were the leading expected use cases for AI in the payments industry.

data for AI
https://www.edgardunn.com/articles/the-impact-of-artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-on-the-payments-industry

Looking to the future 

At its core, AI provides speed, increased efficiency, data insights, and cost savings that will benefit businesses and consumers alike. In 2024, the payments industry will use generative AI to help streamline payment processes, improve fraud detection, and enhance customer experiences. Since generative AI is inherently a creative field with many unknown use cases, undoubtedly, other opportunities will arise. Indeed, it is an exciting time to be in payments, witnessing the transformative potential AI holds for the industry. 

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About the Author  
 
Zachary JarvinenZachary Jarvinen is the VP of Marketing at Exact Payments, a member of the Forbes Technology Council, and a published AI writer. During his 15+ years career, he has grown a data analytics startup to #87 on the Inc. 5000 list, helped expand global markets for Fortune 500 Epson, and led AI & Analytics product marketing at OpenText.  

Businessmen-Turned-Leaders Can Drive Meaningful Change 

businessman making speech behind the flag of moldova

By Amanda Davis 

In the political sphere, the transition of many a leader from the private sector to public service often showcases the potential positive impact of entrepreneurial spirit on political leadership. Petr Nečas, exemplified this trajectory in the Czech Republic, initially starting out as an entrepreneur in the private security space. His later foray into politics, as a member of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), was marked by a nuanced understanding of economic dynamics and strategic leadership. He later ascended to the office of Prime Minister, serving from 2010 to 2013 and echoing the transformative potential of private sector acumen in shaping effective governance.   

The story of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, is a similar one, with Poroshenko starting out as a businessman in the confectionery industry, as head of Roshen group.  He would later lead the country through both a pragmatic decision-making process and widescale economic reform, much of which was the product of insights gleaned from private sector endeavours. Bidzina Ivanishvili, famous in Georgian politics, mirrored this trajectory, and channeled private sector experience when building the political party Georgian Dream. Serving as Prime Minister from 2012 to 2013, his tenure underscored the transformative potential of entrepreneurial vision in navigating the complexities of governance. All three of these individuals showcase how private sector experience can indeed catalyse political efficacy, imbuing leaders with the acumen to navigate the intricacies of governance and enact substantive change. 

The city of Orhei, in the heart of Moldova and not far from the country’s capital Chisinau, is a place which although many may not have not heard of, tells a remarkable development tale reminiscent of the those of Nečas, Poroshenko and Ivanishvili. The process which the city has undergone under the visionary leadership of a former mayor, businessman, and philanthropist, Mr. Ilan Shor, is indeed a modern-day rendition of the previously mentioned tales and can and should inform the development of many a place in this still developing corner of Europe.  

Orhei experienced transformative development between the years 2015 to 2019, when Mr. Shor served as mayor. His successes were seen not only in the way in which he modernized the city’s infrastructure, but also in the way in which the city’s rich historical essence has been preserved. This story puts forth a prime example of the potential benefit of private sector experience in the development of post-Soviet states, many of which, to date, have not managed to create a better future for their citizens through their reliance on traditional development models and investment methods.   

Urban development is a key metric in gauging a city’s potential, with Orhei witnessing significant progress in its urban development during Mr. Shor’s tenure as mayor. A significant achievement was the restoration he led of multiple historic city landmarks and facades, revitalizing Orhei’s architectural landscape. Commenced with a project on Mihai Eminescu Street in the heart of Orhei which any of the city’s residents would be familiar with, this was one example of the way in which Mr. Shor’s plan breathed new life into the city’s historical core, while simultaneously honouring its heritage. 

A city, at the end of the day, must provide for the needs of its residents and Mr. Shor’s administration made sure to put that first. Specifically, his team saw to the needs of residents from low-income backgrounds. Disadvantaged families were supported through the construction of social housing units, seeing brand new homes provided for families, alongside social stores and pharmacies which made sure that those residents who were struggling were given access to affordable essential goods and often much needed medical supplies.    

Despite exceptional progress in Orhei, similar challenges remain unaddressed in other parts of Moldova. Even in Chisinau the capital, unresolved systemic issues which impact residents’ quality of life remain. Indeed, according to a World Bank Report, adequate investment in the city’s infrastructure has not been made in close to 20 years. Among the most pressing, and often dangerous, is not tending to infrastructure and deteriorating structures due to lack of regular maintenance. Many a visitor to Chisinau will note the decapitated entrances, crumbling exteriors, and outdated utilities seen across the city’s urban landscape.   

Scarcity of facilities for families, such as playgrounds and educational institutions is notable, alongside deficiencies in public amenities essential for fostering healthy communities. Chisinau’s utility sector has been struggling with inefficiencies in recent years, resulting in inadequate trash removal and snow clearance, among other issues. Last year’s winter conditions, some of the coldest on record, quite literally saw the city shutting down. The urgent need for strategic urban planning and investment is apparent, but more pressing is leadership with a plan to address infrastructure deficiencies and improve living conditions. Examples such as Mr. Shor’s leadership in Orhei should be seen as a beacon of hope, clearly demonstrating the impact that local leaders with private sector experience can have on community development. 

On the subject of community, and in order to foster a communal spirit in Orhei, common spaces in the city underwent improvements during Mr. Shor’s time as Mayor, with a reported 100 courtyards renovated alongside children’s playgrounds that were built. Road construction that would ensure the safe mobility of residents was prioritized, and proactive action saw cost-effective infrastructure development at lower costs to city budgets. Over 150 kilometers of roads, or 90% of the city’s road network was thus improved at a fraction of what it might have otherwise cost. Other projects to improve residents’ mobility involved upgrading public transport and even offering free bus rides at peak hours, setting a new standard for urban mobility in the region. 

With regard to social welfare programs aimed at supporting vulnerable citizens of Orhei, monthly financial assistance was extended. Most importantly, this was sourced from a municipal reserve fund and did not involve raising city tax. This special project included providing pension supplements to elderly residents, in order to ensure their financial security.  

A similar initiative, in the form of the “Maternity Capital” program was introduced during Mr. Shor’s tenure. As many residents simply could not afford to start a family, the program sought to encourage family growth through financial aid to those who wanted to become new parents. Instead of simply handing out grants, and through meticulous financial planning, a tiered financial assistance system was created, granting substantial support to families welcoming children and nurturing family life in the city of Orhei. 

A city cannot thrive without culture and as French philosopher Albert Camus once said, “Without culture, and the relative freedom it implies, society, even when perfect, is but a jungle”. Thus, in addition to urban development and social welfare programs, Mr. Shor focused on establishing cultural vitality in his city. Indeed, the city’s cultural scene flourished with a bustling calendar of events, festivals, and performances attracting visitors from across Moldova. This included OrheiLand, a free entertainment park that became a popular tourist destination, contributing to economic growth and cultural vibrancy.  

As Moldova works toward the prospect of joining the EU, it must first of all address its internal challenges to infrastructure, utilities, healthcare and education systems alongside citizens’ services more broadly. There is a compelling case to be made for greater private sector involvement in the local leadership of other parts of the country alongside many still struggling post-Soviet states. By leveraging their expertise and resources, businessmen-turned-leaders can drive meaningful change and contribute to the development of their communities, ultimately creating a brighter future. With these examples of Mr. Shor’s leadership as a shining example, Moldova and its neighbours can hopefully continue on their respective and joint development journeys.   

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About the Author 

Amanda Davis

Amanda Davis is originally from Canada but living in Europe. An aspiring author, she is currently working with refugees from MENA in Europe, and is a proud free market libertarian 

The AI Edge in Assessing Geopolitical Risk: Opportunities and Challenges 

AI concept and city lights

By Joshua Haecker and Fallon Farmer

In the past year, multinationals have rushed to leverage generative AI to get a better grasp of geopolitical risks they face around the world. Amid mounting emerging market instability, security crises, sanctions regimes and trade wars, generative AI offers significant potential for companies’ risk and intelligence teams.  

However, by moving so quickly, some have not properly considered the limitations of the data-synthesising technology – an oversight that can lead to flawed operational decisions. The haste with which the technology is being deployed as a forecasting tool has left some firms with models whose responses to questions may be inaccurate. This, in many cases, is because the AI has not had access to sufficiently comprehensive and balanced data sets, nor been trained to learn from and interpret these sources. 

Put simply, the models sometimes do not have the knowledge or the skills to answer the questions they are being asked. Consequently, the answers they do provide can be misleading or erroneous. That, in turn, can lead to bad corporate decision-making, for example to pull out of a market or stand down a security team, when there’s no compelling reason to do so.  

The challenges of using AI as a means of helping companies assess security risks are particularly evident when operating in potentially volatile jurisdictions. Below, we illustrate this with hypothetical examples of corporate risk assessment in the run-up to the Israel-Hamas and the Ukraine-Russian wars, where there were few signs of imminent conflict.   

In September of last year, a multinational considering expanding its operations in southern Israel may have asked its generative AI model to assess the likelihood of an escalation of tensions between Hamas and Israel. The organisation has periodically launched rocket attacks from its base in Gaza against Israeli urban centres. These have triggered reprisal strikes. The exchanges have often quickly spiralled into highly disruptive security crises. 

In the weeks before the October 7 Hamas raid into southern Israel, there would not have been much, if any, open-source information warning of such an operation. Hamas’s actions caught observers by surprise. So, based on the data available, an AI model might have said there were no indications of a possible escalation. A human analyst, however, would likely have provided a more cautious response. They might have suggested that the situation was unclear because of the lack of data on security conditions in the region and Hamas’s intent. 

Prior to the outbreak of the Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, there was a massive build-up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian frontier with Russia. Yet most observers took the view that Moscow was not about to invade but was instead trying to exert pressure on Kyiv to make political concessions. Views changed when the US, drawing on its own intelligence, warned an invasion was imminent.   

Before that warning, a generative AI model asked to assess escalating tensions may have suggested the country was not under immediate threat. A human analyst’s response would likely have been more caveated, perhaps drawing on a wider range of sources. Some of these might have given more weight to the possibility of an invasion. 

FiscalNote has been researching and experimenting with generative AI models, exploring their limitations, and developing ways of mitigating them. Our work has shown that companies can use prompting techniques to prime the models and better prepare them for the tasks they perform or the answers they produce. In essence, it means teaching the model that ‘this is what I mean when I ask you to do a certain task’.         

Through our work, we’ve identified five key steps (outlined below) that companies can take to craft effective AI models that generate accurate and actionable outputs. This will help organisations navigate and respond to the dynamic challenges of today’s business environment, maximizing the benefits of AI technologies while mitigating potential pitfalls.  

Picking a rich and robust set of training data. The data sets used to train AI models should be as comprehensive, timely and authoritative as possible. If there are gaps or omissions in the sources, then answers generated may be flawed, no matter how much effort is made to improve the programme’s synthesising capabilities.    

Prompting with task-specific instructions. As much as possible, AI should be trained to answer critical questions following the same processes and techniques as their human counterparts – for example, to cite sources on which its answers are based. Essentially, this amounts to explaining how it came to its conclusions. If not required to tie them back to source documents, there is a risk of the model making up answers.   

Permitting responses with no answers. Generative AI is hard-wired to provide an answer to a question, regardless of whether it has the correct answer or not. This can be avoided by including fallback options when instructing a model. So, where there isn’t the data to support an accurate response to a question, the model is allowed to say, “I don’t know”, “I don’t have enough information to answer”, or ” I can’t help with that”. 

Making sure responses are objective and balanced. Companies can also use generative AI to self-check for potential bias in answers. This becomes particularly important, for example, in responding to questions related to conflicts where the positions of the parties involved are unequally represented in data sources. Once sensitive to bias, the model can confirm whether the parties are being presented fairly in its responses; identify when that’s not happening; and determine if this is due to insufficient data.   

Designing an option for human input.  AI systems should be deployed with a human-in-the-loop design, which effectively recognises when a question should be escalated to a human analyst. The escalation may be triggered by answers that generate high rates of bias, “don’t knows”, or questionable source citations. The human analyst then draws on their own expertise and knowledge, which might include taking into consideration subjective and intangible factors beyond the scope of an AI model.  

As geopolitical threats multiply around the world, companies are right to consider using AI models to assist them with critical operational decisions. These programmes can certainly inform and enhance risk assessment, but to be truly effective they must be trained and have access to optimal data sets. Even then, they may not have all the answers. So, it is imperative that they work in tandem with human analysts, not replace them. If well-managed, the technology is a real asset. If not, it can be a liability.

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About the Authors 

Joshua HaeckerJoshua Haecker is Head of Product, FiscalNote Global Intelligence. 

 

 

Fallon FarmerFallon Farmer is a Principal Data Scientist at FiscalNote.
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