By Emma Saxena and Michael Palocz-Andresen

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in frame conditions that enabled individuals to create new environmental-friendly habits. These hold the potential to support a sustainability transition within the transport sector. This paper illustrates the opportunities that arise from the pandemic and how this might shape a sustainable development in the future.

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic currently poses one of the most urgent challenges for human well-being to the world. Measures that were implemented to counteract the expansion of the virus, such as global travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders, have led to tremendous conditional changes for individuals. Daily routines as well as consumption patterns shifted, and remote work became a huge part in the lives of many. As a consequence of such measures and associated behavioural changes on a broader societal level, the impact of the pandemic has led to the most severe disruption of the global economy since World War II¹. Many industrial sectors are restrained, which led to a drastic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020.

The main driver of this development is the transport sector². In times of human-made climate change which is similarly urgent as the COVID-19 pandemic but is unfolding its consequences in a rather long-term perspective, reducing greenhouse gas emissions drastically is required in order to avert the serious threats global warming is posing to human well-being. Analysing which behavioural changes and mechanisms have led to the drastic reduction of emissions during the pandemic can inform scientists and decision makers about future interventions and policies that target the reduction of the transport sector’s climate impact.

This paper aims to identify the opportunities that the pandemic brings about for a sustainable transition. It examines how the COVID-19 pandemic caused changes in individual habits in the transport sector. It furthermore explores which post-pandemic opportunities will arise to promote environmental-friendly situational parameters and behaviours that contribute to a sustainable development. Firstly, a theoretical background about habits will be provided. Subsequently, the transport sector and the associated habits will be presented from a pre- and post-pandemic perspective. The focus is then set on the windows of opportunity for sustainability transitions that emerged during the pandemic. In the following, an outlook on possible future developments of the newly established habits will be given. Finally, the main findings of the inquiry will be summarised, see Fig. 1.

Introduction to Habits

Habits are behaviours that are automatic, frequently shown, stable and that are followed by success³. They play an important role in everyday life. According to a study by Wood et al. (2002), about 35% to 53% of daily actions can be classified as habit. They allow to make routine decisions quickly and effectively without requiring many cognitive capacities⁴. Habits need about two to eight months to be formed after the behaviour was first shown⁵.

Previous research on how unsustainable habits can be disrupted shows that a change of frame conditions as well as the creation of barriers that prevent performing a habit is crucial⁶. The changes in daily life situations require new attention to former automatically executed behaviour. For instance, if a person habitually uses the car to reach the workplace, choosing the car as the mean of transport on the daily basis on the way to work is a less conscious process which is not reconsidered every single time. If the context changes substantially, for example after moving to a different city, a so called ‘Window of Opportunity’ for behavioural change emerges, and the transport mode used to commute to work needs to be consciously contemplated again⁷. In such a moment, the formation of a new habits is much easier than under unchanged life circumstances. Since establishing sustainable behaviours is a necessity for the mitigation of climate change, it is a key priority to identify and use such Windows of Opportunity to support sustainability transitions.

The Transport Sector and the Role of Habits

The transportation sector is the second largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, after electricity and heat production. It currently accounts for about 16% of climate-damaging emissions, which include – most prominently – carbon dioxide, but also other climate forcers like volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxide (SO²) and carbon monoxide (CO) to name only a few ^8,9. In the European Union, transport is even the greatest source of CO₂, accounting for over a quarter of all greenhouse gases ¹⁰. After the EU succeeded to reduce transport emissions in the period between 2007 and 2014, emissions have been increasing again. Without consequent measures for reduction, national 2030 climate goals will be missed ¹⁰. This illustrates the strong need for rapid change within the sector. Adequate concepts and policies to approach this problem need to be developed and implemented promptly by scientists, practitioners and politicians.

Simultaneously, a change towards sustainable behaviours is required on the individual level. Personal transport makes up the bulk of total transport¹¹. It is responsible for the majority of transport emissions, since the personal travel choices are in most cases unsustainable. In the EU, more than 60% of all CO₂ transport emissions are produced by cars ¹². Car drivers in Germany use their cars mostly for business-related travels (41%), during their holiday and leisure time (36%) and for grocery shopping (17%) ¹³. Most of these rides could also be managed by alternative, much more sustainable means of transport that would lead to a lower impact on the global climate. These include public transport, car sharing or, the least CO₂ intensive options, travelling by bike or foot. However, the majority of the population still engages in unsustainable travel behaviours, leading to the continuous increase in emissions discussed above.

The travel choices individuals make are in many cases habitual. Regular transportation routes, such as the way to work, university or grocery shopping are most likely habitual since they involve repeated behaviours in a stable context. Accordingly, changing these habits towards more sustainable behaviour is an important leverage point for the reduction of GHG emissions. More specifically, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that habits play a major role in transport⁶. Findings from social psychology thus play an increasingly important role in complementing solution approaches developed in other disciplines, such as engineering, politics and environmental sciences. This emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to solve the complex problems occurring in the face of climate change.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Transport Sector and Associated Habits

The expansion of the COVID-19 virus to several countries in the world had a significant impact on the lives of the global population due to the necessary restrictions. March 16 in 2020 marks the date of the national lockdown in Germany. Many industries had to stop their production. Travel restrictions were imposed, and most people had to continue their work remotely in the home office. Global regulations of that kind led to a tremendous reduction in emissions. The sector that contributed to that reduction the most was the transport sector with a decline of -18.6% in ground transport and -43.9% for aviation and shipping emissions compared to 2019 in the first half year of 2020¹⁴.

The great reduction of overall transport use was accompanied by a significant change in the modal split¹⁵. While sustainable commuting forms like public transport and shared mobility devices declined, individual car use became the preferred mode of mobility. However, also walking and cycling gained popularity and increased during the pandemic, which can be considered a positive development in terms of sustainability. In many cities, that led to the instalment of so-called popup lanes which were built to create more space for pedestrians and cyclists see Fig. 2¹⁶.

As described above, it takes about two to eight months to form a new habit⁵. Given that the conditions of the pandemic prevail for now over a year, it is quite likely that the behaviours that emerged during the pandemic have now developed into new habits.  When taking a closer look at the habitual changes in transportation, two different mechanisms likely have occurred. According to Klöckner (2005), habits break when either frame conditions change and/ or certain barriers prevent performing the habit⁶. The implications of the pandemic have brought about both, as will be explained in the following with the example of public transport habits.

People who would had normally used public transport to travel regular routes experienced a disruption of their habit with the outbreak of the pandemic. Public-transit ridership has fallen 70% to 90% in major cities across the world¹⁸. One reason for that is the change in frame conditions that was induced by the crisis. Since many people are required to work from home, they do not need to commute to their workplace anymore. Similarly, many places or events people would have normally visited are not accessible or taking place anymore due to the restrictions.

Another reason why many people do not use public transport in these times is because they associate it with low levels of safety and the risk of getting infected with the Coronavirus. The restrictions and the fear of infection can be considered as barriers that prevent the public transport users from performing their habit. As a consequence of these changes, new behaviours emerged. Instead of using public transport, many people shifted to traveling by car, bike or foot.

Window of Opportunity and Solutions

Currently, unsustainable behaviours such as car use are locked in as habits into the life of many citizens worldwide. As a matter of fact, habits are usually hard to change. However, as discussed before, schematically learned actions can be interrupted when people find themselves in a special or new life situation, such as a crisis^6,19. Accordingly, the impacts of the pandemic could in fact have opened the window of opportunity to disrupt unsustainable travel habits and establish new, sustainable ones.

People could have potentially developed different habits with both negative implications for the environment (i.e., decreased use of public transport, increased car use) and positive implications for the environment (i.e., increased cycling and walking shares) habits. Newly formed habits that involve sustainable means of transport could be an important mechanism to support the sustainability transition of the transport sector after the pandemic – on the condition that they persist afterwards. Accordingly, gaining a deeper understanding about which conditions are required to preserve the habits beyond the era of the pandemic is crucial. Simultaneously, a strategy needs to be developed that leads car drivers to shift to public transport and other sustainable modes of transport. An elaboration on how this could be achieved, and which frame conditions and measures are required will be provided in the following section. A summary of the mobility measures is depicted in Fig. 3.

The end of the pandemic will most likely not happen as abruptly as the outbreak of the virus. It is, however, once again a time of upheaval that will lead to changing conditions in the daily life of the population. In order to encourage the establishment of sustainable habits, shaping the frame conditions for green transport modes in a way that people are encouraged to use them is of utmost importance in this period.

Reducing car use significantly is required for the reduction of emissions in the transport sector. Unfavourably, car-use habits are usually hard to change. The change of frame conditions that the pandemic has brought about could represent an opportunity to disrupt the car use habit. For example, with the prognosticated continuance of remote work after the pandemic, the demand for business-related mobility will be expectedly lower This process, however, strongly depends on whether car use can be successfully discouraged and whether sustainable modes of transport can be successfully incentivised in the future.

Public transit remains the backbone of sustainable transport, especially in urban areas. Accordingly, strengthening the approval of public transport again is a key priority. This can only be achieved by arranging favourable conditions for public transport users, such as high levels of hygiene, safety and comfort within the trains, buses, subways etc.¹⁵ Further needs of the local communities need to be assessed and integrated into transport policies in order to regain their trust in public transit.

A complementing approach could be the provision of a certain number of free tickets for public transport to users as soon as the pandemic circumstances allow it. Previous research shows that incentivising public transport use by providing free tickets for individuals that find themselves in a special or new life situation can be effective for increasing public transport use^20,21. However, special attention needs to be paid that people who previously employed other sustainable travel modes such as cycling and walking do not shift to public transport as a consequence of the measure. Nevertheless, the combination of providing favourable frame conditions to regain trust as well as a monetary incentive in the form of free tickets in a new decision context has the potential to lead to an increase in public transport use after the pandemic.

In accordance with these measures, it has to be ensured that people who had adapted new sustainable behaviours such as cycling or walking continue with this habit. Important frame conditions for this endeavour include a good infrastructure, such as a well-connected network of bike lanes. It is, again, crucial that cyclists feel safe when using their bike, see Fig. 4

The pop-up lanes that appeared in cities all over the world as a response to the increased cycling share represent important frame conditions for the preservation of cycling habits. If they would be abolished again, the change in frame conditions would pose a threat to the persistence of newly adopted cycling habit. It is thus highly advisable for policy makers to install these lanes permanently from a habit-preservation view. Fortunately, several local policy makers have announced plans to do so, among others London’s transport boss Andy Byford²².

Outlook

The further course of the pandemic and how it will impact mobility in the future is uncertain. However, taking a look at previous epidemic and pandemic events might help to estimate how the transport sector and the modal split might develop. A study by Beutels et al. (2009), about economic impact of the SARS epidemic in Beijing from 2002 to 2003 shows that at the peak of the infections in April 2003, public transport usage collapsed by over 60% ²³. This is slightly lower but comparable to the decrease occurring in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In July – one month after the infection numbers had approached zero – the ridership for public transport got roughly back to normal ²³. The SARS epidemic that started in South China soon developed into a pandemic that affected multiple other states. The severity of its impact is not comparable to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it shows us that the public transport is likely to regain its users once the pandemic comes to an end. For prognosticating the use of bicycles and walking as means of transport, information about the intention to use a certain mode may be serviceable. In a survey conducted by the ADAC in November 2020, 21% of participants stated that they will use the bike more often in the future. Even 27% stated that they intend to walk more often in order to reach their destination²⁴.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic presents us with completely new challenges, only rough estimates about future developments can be drawn. However, information of the kind that is presented above may help policy makers and transport organisations to adapt their strategies and take advantage of the opportunities that the pandemic brings about, see Fig. 5.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic induced a change in frame conditions that led to habitual changes of individuals in the transport sector. These new habits have the potential to accelerate a sustainable transition that is strongly needed for the mitigation of climate change and the protection of ecosystems and human well-being. As a result, it is of high importance to encourage individuals to maintain these new sustainable habits.

The emergence of new sustainable habits such as cycling and walking are beneficial behavioural shifts for a sustainable development. By securing physical frame conditions such as bike and pedestrian lanes, maintaining these habits beyond the pandemic era is encouraged. On the other hand, the use of public transport has tremendously declined globally while car use has increased. Consequently, robust strategies to regain ridership in public transit while simultaneously decreasing car use need to be developed. This poses a great challenge to scientists, policymakers and practitioners.

However, when the pandemic will eventually come to an end, a new window of opportunity will open. This will facilitate the change of unsustainable habits that have evolved during the pandemic, since frame conditions change again. By taking advantage of this upheaval, transitioning to sustainable modes of transport can be facilitated. Solution approaches like giving out a number of free tickets to incentivise public transport in combination with changes in life situation have already been proven to be effective²⁰. Furthermore, experience from recent epidemics and pandemics suggests that the use of public transport will normalise again, once the infection numbers approach zero.

The authors would like to thank Prof. Maik Adomßent for years of support for the above seminar series in the Complementary studies at the Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany.

This article was originally published in The European Financial Review 25 June 2021. It can be accessed here: https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/sustainable-mobility-after-the-pandemic/

About the Authors

Emma Saxena has started her bachelor studies in environmental sciences as a major and psychology and society as a minor at the Leuphana University Lüneburg in 2018. In 2020, she started her studies in the major psychology. She works as a research assistant for the three-year research project “Interplay of interpersonal and intrapersonal conflicts as a barrier to sustainable settlements” funded by the German Research Foundation.

Michael Palocz-Andresen has been working as Herder-professor since 2018, supported by the DAAD at the TEC de Monterrey Mexico. He became a full-professor at the University West-Hungary, a guest professor at the TU Budapest, the Leuphana University Lüneburg and the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is a Humboldt scientist and an instructor of the SAE International in the USA.

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By Rosimar Bernal, Elisa Ledermann, Clara Seitz and Michael Palocz-Andresen

Abstract

Pandemics have shown to be a great threat to the health, wellbeing, and development of Mankind around the world. The novel Coronavirus, Covid-19 has put into check the daily life and evidenced the many gaps and inequalities existing around the globe. It has been proven to be one of the most important factors of climate change is the changing developing and spreading viruses and bacteria. This report considers the triggering elements of the climate, the environment and the society for the pandemic and try to give an answer, how humans could avoid future catastrophic situation.

Introduction

Many of the viruses, parasites, and bacteria that may affect humans have an animal origin. Diseases or infections of animal origin which are naturally transmissible from vertebrate animals to humans are known as Zoonosis, they constitute a large amount of the known and unknown diseases. About 70% of arising infections are caused by microbes from an animal source, as examples could be named Ebola, Zika, HIV/AIDS, Dengue, and Coronaviruses (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV). About 1.7 million viruses are thought to habit mammal and avian hosts; among those, between 631 000 and 827 000 could infect humans. In the same way, an increase of disease outbreaks from approximately five infectious diseases a year has been registered, each one with pandemic potential ^{[1] [2]}. 

An outbreak or epidemic is defined as “a sudden rise of cases of a disease, injury or other health condition than expected in a given area among a specific group of people and a particular period with cases being related to each other” ^[3].   

Figure 1: Future strategies for avoiding pandemic situations

Triggering Factors for Future Pandemics  

Microbial Adaptation and Change 

Microorganisms inhabit human hosts, both internally and externally. They play a key role in the human ecosystem as natural flora, which acts as a defense barrier. Microbes can evolve, adapt and survive. Especially, acute respiratory viruses are among the viruses that continue to emerge and reemerge due to the great burden they are able to produce ^[4]. Mutations and genetic variations are also expected to occur. A more tangible example is Influenza, which from a virological perspective, evolves constantly into new strains, bringing with it an ongoing development of vaccines against new influenza strains. Yet, outbreaks from influenza are very common ^[5]. Even though there are no known new strains from the novel Coronavirus, multiple variants have been identified. The one that drawn more attention to them was one variant identified in the U.K. (B.1.1.7), another in South Africa (B.1.351), and in Japan/Brazil (P.1). To what extent the new variants may or may not affect the spreads and progression of the disease in an organism is being researched.  

Human Susceptibility to Infection  

Depending on our way of nutrition or usage of different medications, the balance of the defenses in the human body may be altered, making them more susceptible to get sick. Risk groups consisting of people with preexisting conditions suffering from diabetes, neurological disorders, liver, and chronic kidney disease or immuno-compromised patients were given special attention. How Covid-19 may affect the organism is being researched. 

Climate and Weather 

The physical environment and the changes that occur in it, influence to a wide extent how a microorganism may or may not affect its host. In the same way, the conditions outside the “host” may be decisive on the survival of the microbes and how they could be transmitted between different hosts, including from one animal species to another.  

Changing Ecosystems 

Ecological and environmental factors have a leading role in the rise of diseases and therefore from epidemics. They determine the speed of transmissibility and persistence of zoonotic infections. It directly affects human exposure to vector-borne diseases through distribution change, abundance, habitat associations, and in general the vector population, thus making it easier for a human being to be affected.   

Human Demographics and Behavior  

Growing and aging population, urbanization, immunocompromised groups, and “high-risk behavior” contribute to a great extent to the spread of viruses by facilitating the mobilization from one host to another. It is expected that with population growth, more RNA viruses like Ebola, hantavirus, and AIDS, will keep emerging because of the need to keep producing food from animal origin and cultivation fields ^[6]. Furthermore, directly related to the growing population amplified by climate change, water scarcity and insecurity are an existing threat.  

The United Nations estimates that over 2 billion people live in countries experiencing high water stress ^[7]. Regions facing water restrictions, where handwashing and poor sanitation are present and affected by water-borne diseases such as Cholera, Hepatitis A and E, are prone to have a higher lethality and the spread of viruses like Covid-19 increases. 

Economic Development and Land Use 

Business as usual and the way humans use natural resources without giving them enough time to replenish and therefore exceed the planetary boundaries have had detrimental effects in different spheres of life as we know it on Earth.  

According to the scenarios defined by the IPCC, there are four basic models for predicting the future development ^[8]:  

• Scenario group A1: The world of global economic growth 
• Scenario group A2: The “Everyone-fights-for-himself-world” 
• Scenario group B1: The planned green world 
• Scenario group B2: The world of green regions

Despite of Covid-19 impacts the worldwide development shows a growing tendency according to the A1-A2 scenarios. One factor in this development is the land-use change. As the name describes it, is a transformation from one use of the soil to another one. For example, to turn forests into agricultural fields, for human settlement and/or urbanization. This kind of spatial overlap enables different species to get in touch with each other. It means, the natural interactions from animals, microbes, in an ecosystem are altered and lightens a virus or disease to reach new hosts, amplifying the risk of transmission if humans are also in the equation. By clearing up forests for cattle use, the livestock comes in contact with wildlife. If an infected animal or a virus is searching for a host, it can likely mature in the available body, providing new pathways for pathogens to propagate. Various diseases have merged in the last decades as a consequence, mainly, from land-use change, among them, the SARS-CoV-2 ^[1], but also agricultural intensification and large-scale livestock farming have had a crucial role in other virus outbreaks ^[9]. 

International Travel and Commerce  

Global mobilization has been an enabler for economic development in the last years and has eased a cross-border exchange of goods, services, and technologies. To the same extent in which international mobilization has been helpful for the development of many societies, it has facilitated a rapid spread of epidemics. One of the first measurements that governments took to avoid disseminating the novel Coronavirus was travel restrictions and closing borders. Tendentially, the increase in the number of passengers is highly correlated with the quickness in which a virus can spread. These observations are not new but are dated to countless other outbreaks and introductions of diseases in new regions.

Two global Threats: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Climate Crisis   

The Covid-19 pandemic and the climate change impacts bare a lot of difference and similarities. Both pose a threat to humanity and its life-sustaining systems and are in need of a direct response under uncertainty, affect the world’s population and need corporate action to be tackled ^[10].  

Life Changing Trends  

Climate change and Coronavirus pandemic affect everyday life and work. Their expansion dynamics challenge intuition and short-term thinking and are hard to understand and relate to ^[11]. Nevertheless, public understanding is crucial in order to push policy makers and accept decisions and measures ^[12]. The danger of understanding the gravity of the situation too late to prevent the catastrophe is inherent in both the Coronavirus pandemic and Climate change. Therefore, in both crises the opportunity to take early actions was missed ^[11].  

Tipping Points 

Both bare global threats which can lead to irreversible change when exceeding a critical point. The control of the Coronavirus becomes highly difficult when reaching a certain abundance within a population. Similarly, huge changes may arise once temperatures have warmed beyond certain critical thresholds ^[11].  Processes like the changes in the polar jet stream or release of methane by melting permafrost will lead to great consequences ^[13].

Inequality across Global and Social Sphere  

Climate change and Coronavirus pandemic have unequal impacts across countries and social groups ^[11]. This is due to individual health conditions, differences in wealth and therefore ability to invest in safety measures and due to location and therefore greater exposure to for example extreme weather conditions ^[11]. Such an increase in inequality is endangering the global economic system as countries depend on each other.

Testing International Solidarity 

As climate change and the Coronavirus affect the globalized world, they will test international solidarity. Competitions for limited resources arise. Countries rather protect their own population. During the Coronavirus pandemic such behaviors could be observed in for example restricted export of sanitary material or the distribution of vaccines ^[11]. (ibid.). It is likely that we will not only experience similar behaviors during climate change but that the competition intensifies and extends to a larger scale ^[11].

Costs and Communication 

In crisis situations early action is essential. It is important to communicate risks and foster public engagement ^[11]. (ibid.). As Coronavirus is a health issue affecting everyone the urgency can be communicated comprehensible. Nevertheless, those countries which communicated the danger of the pandemic clearly and seriously were far more efficient in containing the disease than those sending inconsistent messages or trivializing the threats^[11]. Communicating the personal consequences from climate change is critical in activating public understanding and action ^[14].  Another challenge of communication is to deliver the urgency of preventing disasters which lie in the future as in most cases the prevention is less costly than cure ^[11]. Nevertheless, the costs of limiting the individual freedom for the global common good often seem too great, whereas the benefits appear to be uncertain and lie in the future ^[15]. Therefore, it is of high importance that the right degree of political regulations, education and communication is found to foster preventive behavior and shift incentives ^[15]. 

Figure 2: Similarity and difference of influencing factors in the pandemic and in the climate change

Even though there are a lot of aspects combining the pandemic and climate change they are still handled and perceived differently. The Coronavirus pandemic seems to be “clear and compelling” whereas climate change is “indirect and diffuse” ^[11]. Measures like social distancing are clear, understandable and for a foreseeable period of time. Further the solution for Coronavirus, introducing the right vaccines, is much easier. “Any activities aiming for the reversal of climate change would likely take decades” and are much more complex ^[11]. Further, the time frame differs. “Humans are great at solving immediate problems, less so ones that feel distant” ^[16]. The consequences of the climate crisis reveal over an extended time period and have a rather indirect effect on everyday life ^[16]. The Coronavirus pandemic is at the moment on people’s minds and therefore the temporal distance is very small ^[16].

How can Human avoid Future Pandemics? 

To assess how future infectious diseases develop and spread in the future, it is important to summarize again how infections spread in the first place. Infectious diseases can be classified into two categories; infections spreading directly through contact or droplet exposure, and those infections that spread indirectly through vector organisms. Vector organisms are for example mosquitos and ticks. The transmission through the food chain, soil, and water is possible as well, although it is rather rare. Infectious diseases can be further classified by their natural origin; whether they had their origin in a human reservoir, called anthroponoses, or if they had their origin in an animal reservoir, called zoonoses. ^[17]. 

In regard to the transmission of infectious diseases, three components are especially important. One needs a pathogen, a vector, and the transmission environment. The pathogen is the bacteria or virus itself. Certain climate conditions are necessary for the survival, reproduction, distribution and transmission of these pathogens and vectors. The climate conditions are responsible for the geographical and seasonal distribution of infectious diseases. Further, weather conditions, hence short-term or current conditions, can affect the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks. ^[18]. 

Climate change is the consequence of cumulation of CO2 and other GHGs in the atmosphere. Tendencies are showing a continuous increasing development, despite of the Covid-19 pandemic caused interim negative impacts, see Fig. 3. 

Figure 3: Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

Global warming is favoring the geographical expansion of infectious diseases. Furthermore, extreme weather events may lead to more intense and clustered disease outbreaks, in addition to outbreaks at non-traditional places and times ^[18]. In the following the two main climate conditions: precipitation and temperature will be discussed in regard to their influence on vectors and pathogens. This will demonstrate the sensitivity of disease vectors and pathogens towards changing conditions. 

The Factor Precipitation

Reduced precipitation is connected to increased emergence of water-borne pathogens, due to lower river flows, which leads to a higher concentration of the pathogens. Heavy rainfalls, however, will also lead to an increase in fecal pathogens. Rain is stirring up the sediments in the ground, leading to the accumulation of fecal microorganisms ^[18]. Furthermore, humidity plays a crucial role in the distribution of air-borne diseases. For example, the survival and transmission of the human influenza were found to be bound to temperature and humidity, whereas low humidity leads to a quicker distribution ^[18]. 

The larval development of some vectors accelerates with an increase in rainfall in connection to an increase in temperature. The vector mosquito relies on stagnant water for its breeding site. Increased drought in wet regions might increase the rate of stagnant water ^[18]. Therefore, in some cases, climate change and the general increase of temperature and precipitation favors the development of disease vectors. Humidity plays a large role when it comes to the distribution of disease vectors. Therefore, if the average monthly humidity rate is under 60% the vector will struggle with survival. However, due to climate change, the temperature and humidity have been increasing in usually colder and dry countries, leading to a distribution of unlike diseases, such as West Nile Virus and Lyme disease ^[18]. 

The Factor Temperature  

The temperature is affecting the life cycle of a pathogen. Thereby, every pathogen has two temperature thresholds; the minimum and the maximum temperature in which it will be able to survive and reproduce. Therefore, the changing temperature is changing the life cycle of a pathogen. Furthermore, the reproduction rate increased to higher temperatures. For example, one parasite causing malaria, the plasmodium falciparum, will reproduce in 26 days at 20 °C and only 13 days at 25 °C. Rising temperature in water bodies and food environments might increase the living areas for pathogens. ^[18]. 

Temperature affects the spatial-temporal distribution of disease vectors. Vectors, which are usually found in low-latitude regions may habitat in mid- or high-latitude regions due to higher temperatures. Hence, this will lead to a higher expansion, in addition to a general geographical shift in diseases. Many well-known viruses, such as malaria, yellow fever and Lyme disease have already expanded their distribution to higher latitude areas due to higher temperatures [18].   

Figure 3: Impacts of increasing CO2 emission and mile stones of the climate protection measures

1. 2012 – End of the 1st period of the Kyoto Protocol  
2. 2020 – End of the 2nd period of the Kyoto Protocol 
3. 2016 – Paris Agreement signed 
4. 2020-2021 Covid.19 pandemic 
5. 2050 Predicted population in the World in 2050: 8.7 billion. 

Distribution and Spreading Infectious Diseases through Climate Change  

As seen with the Covid-19 pandemic, through urbanization, global connectivity, international travel, and trade, invasive pathogens and vectors have a new ability to spread widely and cause transcontinental pandemics with public health, social and economic consequences ^[19]. In general, climate change impacts the transmission of infectious diseases through the altering of contact patterns of human – to – pathogen, human – to – vector, and human – to – host. There have been reports of higher outbreaks of infectious diseases when humans come in contact with pathogens or vectors due to changing weather conditions. For example, higher reports of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome have been registered, when mice enter urbanized areas searching for food during hazard season and transmitting hantavirus. ^[18].

Political Coping Mechanisms and Climate Change 

Climate change us expected worsen the control effects of pandemics. Even more, this process will lead to ecosystem degradation, which will then put pressure on food security, causing problems, such as malnutrition. Thereby political instability and population displacement are caused.

This might further lead to the breakdown of civil order, in addition to large-scale migration and regional conflicts. It is believed that this has the ability to weaken the global level coping mechanisms to pandemics. ^[18][19][20]. Therefore, countries need to act proactive towards the climate change crisis, and crises caused by climate change. Otherwise, the global connectivity will be destroyed, leading to an “everyone for themselves” policy, which is fatal in solving global problems collectively. In order to avoid future pandemics, humans need to become aware of the impacts changing climate conditions can have on infectious agents. 

Therefore, recognizing that climate change is indeed a factor of disease distribution, political decision-makers need to make the fight against the climate crisis. In addition to that, factors like Antibiotic resistance, the melting of the permafrost, and extreme weather events need to be highlighted and monitored, in order to circumvent negative developments in pandemics.  

Figure 4: Strategies of mitigation and adaptation, regarding future pandemics 

Outlook

What can humans learn from the Covid-19 pandemic? It is important to listen early to scientific calls for action as ignoring them will be much costlier in the long-run ^[11]. The Coronavirus pandemic highlights the importance of integrating scientists in local and global policy making but also in the media to influence the public opinion ^[12]. The Covid-19 pandemic showed that countries and policy makers are able to copy policies and actions made by front runners which have proven to be successful like for example social distancing. Similarly, there are also pioneer countries in terms of climate solutions which could also act as a role model for other governments ^[12].  

International agreements could decrease the chances of nationalistic or egocentric behaviors and placing powerful or wealthy parts of society over the world’s general population. Policymakers should be motivated to prioritize long-term safety and wealth over short-term costs and economic gain ^[11].. As already discussed, communication is essential. Formulating communication strategies, maintaining the trust in scientists and promoting the understanding and handling of risk situations can create a social push for preventative action ^[11].  

Peer pressure can generate behavioral changes. The effectiveness of individual behavior needs to be more visible and tangible so people are willing to accept the individual costs ^[15]. Communication is not only important for informing the public but also within international institutions to exchange knowledge and share best practices ^[12]. Further, the public is a powerful supporter in pushing actions from policy makers by putting them under pressure. How early and strict measures are introduced by policy makers is dependent on how the public perceives the severity of the threats ^[12]. Education is crucial as society needs to understand the consequences of the catastrophe and the uneven distribution of such across social and special spheres ^[21]. Nevertheless, politics must create a system where benefits are connected to sustainable behavior.  

Summary  

The recent report analyses three questions:  

• How do current behaviors in crises shape the future strategies towards the climate change and future pandemics 
• How does the current life style favor the emergence of pandemics? 
• How will infectious diseases develop with influence of climate protection measures?

The Coronavirus pandemic gives human an advantage in how to handle global crises and the opportunity to reflect upon the challenges and the steps needed to prevent or prepare strategies for such events in the future. In conclusion, the most important lesson learned is that future international agreements are essentially important and climate protection measures must deeply consider the danger and the impacts of pandemics. Beside them, behavioral changes in crisis are necessary. Education and communication are the basic elements for avoiding future disasters.

In conclusion, the most important lesson learned is that behavioral changes in crisis are necessary. “The longer we wait to adapt our behavior, the more drastic the changes will have to be made in the future” ^[15].

This article was originally published in The European Financial Review 03 January 2022. It can be accessed here: https://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/the-emergence-present-and-future-of-pandemics-in-consideration-of-climate/

About the Authors

Rosimar Bernal has started her Bachelor at the Leuphana University Lüneburg in 2019 as an International Student from Panama. B.Sc Environmental Sciences as major and  Spatial Sciences as Minor. Currently, working for the Institute of Ecology from her University.

Elisa Ledermann has started her Bachelor in B.Sc Environmental sciences and economics at the Leuphana University Lüneburg in 2018. She is currently working different internships in order to find the workplace where she can bridge her strong conviction to nature preservation with her business sense. 

Clara Seitz has been studying the B.Sc Environmental Science and Law at the Leuphana University of Lüneburg since 2018. After finishing her Bachelor studies in 2021 she pursues on working towards the legal bar exam in Germany. She is currently working in the wind energy industry where she collaborates with a company on writing her bachelor thesis in the field of compliance and supply chain management.

Michael Palocz-Andresen has been working as a full professor for Sustainable Mobility since 2018, supported by the DAAD at the TEC Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores in Mexico. He became a guest professor at the TU Budapest, the Leuphana University Lüneburg, and at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is a Humboldt scientist and instructor of the SAE International in the USA. 

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