China has taken center stage in the Philippines’ midterm elections, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. turning simmering tensions in the South China Sea into a central campaign issue ahead of Monday’s vote.
Normally focused on local governance and Senate seats, this year’s polls have seen a marked shift. Marcos, elected in 2022, is using the election to rally public sentiment around national sovereignty, drawing sharp contrasts between his administration and that of former President Rodrigo Duterte, whose daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, has emerged as a key rival.
“Will we allow ourselves to return to the time when our leaders wanted us to become a province of China?” Marcos asked supporters during a February rally, referencing Duterte’s historically warm stance toward Beijing.
The Marcos administration has taken a tougher line on maritime disputes, publicly condemning recent Chinese aggression in Philippine waters, from water cannon attacks on coast guard vessels to interference with local fishermen. His team has painted the opposition, particularly Sara Duterte, as soft on Beijing.
None of his endorsed candidates, Marcos claimed, ever applauded China “when our coast guard was being bombed with water” or when “our fishermen were being blocked.”
Public opinion appears to back Marcos’ approach. A recent nationwide poll showed that most voters favor Senate candidates who support defending the country’s maritime claims. Analysts say foreign policy, once a fringe topic during elections, has now taken center stage.
“These are hot-button issues now,” said Ederson Tapia, a public administration professor at the University of Makati. “Filipinos care more than ever about our sovereignty and our security.”
Tensions are also high on the political front. Sara Duterte is facing an impeachment trial on serious charges, including allegedly threatening to assassinate the president. She has denied wrongdoing and petitioned the Supreme Court to void the complaint. Her silence on Beijing’s actions has drawn criticism from the Marcos camp, who accuse her of political evasion.
With the Senate acting as jury in impeachment proceedings, the outcome of the vote could decide Sara Duterte’s political fate — and shape the 2028 presidential race. Marcos, limited to a single term, is widely expected to endorse a successor.
“A strong midterm showing would give Marcos momentum,” said political analyst Dindo Manhit. “It would also raise the stakes for those eyeing the presidency, including the vice president, who has yet to take a firm position on China.”
Meanwhile, concerns about foreign interference and disinformation have clouded the campaign season. Up to 45 percent of online election conversations are reportedly driven by fake or inauthentic accounts, and senior officials have alleged attempts by China-linked actors to sway public opinion — claims that Beijing has denied.
As the Philippines heads to the polls, the vote has become more than a test of political loyalties. It has become a referendum on the country’s identity, foreign alliances, and the future of its democracy.
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