Chinese refiners have stepped up buying of Russian crude after India scaled back imports in response to new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
At least 15 shipments of Russian oil have been secured by Chinese refiners for delivery in October and November, according to analysts. The cargoes, ranging from 700,000 to 1 million barrels each, will be loaded from Arctic and Black Sea ports that usually supply India.
China and India became the biggest buyers of Russian energy after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions from Western nations. But New Delhi has recently reduced purchases following Trump’s move to raise tariffs on Indian goods by 25 percent, citing the country’s reliance on Russian oil and gas.
Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, said Chinese refiners had already purchased around 13 cargoes for October and at least two for November. Xu described the buying as “opportunistic,” noting Russian oil is at least $3 a barrel cheaper than Middle Eastern alternatives.
“As for whether China will continue buying, I personally believe that right now is still a very good opportunity, because over in India, Trump is still pressing hard on them,” Xu said.
Trump told Fox News on Friday, after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, that he was not immediately planning tariffs on China for its Russian oil purchases but suggested he could act “in two weeks or three weeks.”
India imported $53 billion worth of Russian petroleum and crude last year, with Moscow supplying more than a third of its oil needs, according to energy firm Vortexa and UN data. China, meanwhile, bought $62.6 billion worth, with Russia accounting for 13.5 percent of its crude imports.
Despite the surge in recent buying, Xu cautioned that China cannot fully offset India’s pullback. “If India keeps holding off on buying, that’s going to be a real problem for Russia – China just can’t take on all of India’s volume by itself,” she said.
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