Donald Trump has had one amazing week.
On Saturday, 13th July, Trump was the target of an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally. The photograph of a bloodied Donald Trump with his fist in the air and an American flag looming in the background, surrounded by Secret Service agents, is a pivotal image of what would happen next.
While former US president Donald Trump has long been the presumptive Republican nominee, he was confirmed as the party’s choice for November’s election on Monday. On the same day, A federal judge in Florida dismissed the classified documents case against him in what was initially seen as a slam-dunk prosecution case.
Meanwhile, President Biden doesn’t just stumble on; he makes matters worse for himself with yet more gaffs. As the FT reports, the result is that – “Democratic donors have warned that funding for the November election effort is “drying up” because of President Joe Biden’s refusal to step aside, threatening to undermine the party’s effort to defeat Donald Trump.”
The FT also reported on 16th July that between April and June — a record second-quarter haul of sums raised for Trump’s campaign matched the sums raised during his entire 2016 campaign, according to federal filings. Also, on 16th July, Elon Musk announced he is donating $45 million a month to Trump’s election campaign all the way to the election.
Trump then announced Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate, and in his first speech, a shockwave announcement was made to Britain. Vance stated that the UK is the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon.
Whilst those words could be construed by many as merely those used for stirring up an audience, the reverberation of what was said has, behind closed doors, not just shattered the so-called ‘special relationship’ but has much broader implications.
Winston Churchill’s 1946 speech first coined the term ‘special relationship’, often used over the decades to describe the political, social, diplomatic, economic, military and historical relations between the two countries. Both nations have been close allies during many conflicts in the 20th and the 21st centuries, including World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Cold War, the Gulf War and the War on Terror. It appears that the word ‘allies’ really could mean something else.
For instance, it is of some note that Britain’s nuclear deterrent, the Trident missile system, is leased from the US, and the submarines that carry them must regularly return to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia, for maintenance and missile replacement.
Britain could find itself in a precarious position if Donald Trump wins the November election. Threats about Britain’s nuclear deterrent being withdrawn could instantly weaken a significant defence component, not just for Britain but for all of Europe.
Mr Vance’s comments have sparked immediate fury from every corner of the establishment in Britain. Politicians across the spectrum have condemned his remarks, whilst the UK’s deputy Prime Minister has politely and diplomatically dismissed his nuclear state jibe.
Former Tory co-chair Sayeeda Warsi suggested the special relationship between the UK and the US has “become no more than a racist joke” and added: “It bodes for really dangerous times ahead.”
From there, commentary from all political parties in the UK towards Trump and Vance went rapidly downhill as the implications of the insult sunk in.
“There are fears that the special relationship with Britain and European partners will decline sharply should Trump emerge victorious from November’s presidential election”
Labour MP Clive Lewis told The Independent: “I think it shows we now need to prepare for the worst-case scenario of a Trump/Vance presidency.
Green co-leader Carla Denyer told the BBC’s Politics Live: “It’s worrying that the US could end up with a president who’s a convicted criminal and a vice-president who’s more aligned with Russian foreign policy than with supporting Ukraine.”
Shadow Veterans’ minister Andrew Bowie also described the comments as “offensive”.
Right-wing newspaper The Daily Mail reported that – “the sentiment only adds to fears that the special relationship with Britain and European partners will decline sharply should Trump emerge victorious from November’s presidential election.” Even hard-right Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, a supporter and friend of Donald Trump, disagreed.
Britain’s Guardian, Telegraph, and Independent newspapers now predict a Trump win. In many polls, Trump and Biden were neck and neck from April until last week, where Trump has surged with a three-point lead.
For Europe, another stark warning comes. Defence Editor at Sky News reports that – “Donald Trump’s running mate signals a “very significant shift” in US foreign policy (towards Europe) should they win the election, defence insiders say.”
A former senior British defence official predicted that a Trump-Vance White House would lead to the “immediate termination of all financial and military aid for Ukraine.” According to Reuters, Vance also said – “I don’t really care what happens in Ukraine one way or the other.”
This rhetoric underlines what the prospect of a second Trump presidency, with Vance as vice president, really means for Europe. Whilst it is a massive anxiety for Ukraine after more than two and a half years of full-scale war, it has significant importance for Europe, with an aggressive Russia forcing its way through sovereign borders via a bloodbath – that was eventually ushered in by America.
A former senior UK defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, reported on Sky News, predicted that a second Trump administration would “start the process of dismantling NATO – I’m not exaggerating”.
If Donald Trump were to win the election in November, Britain would effectively be regarded as an enemy of the new administration and its ideology. Ukraine would face the risk of losing the war with Russia, and Europe would struggle to cope with the potential deconstruction of its military shield and defence architecture.
About the Author
Graham Vanbergen is a publisher, author (Brexit – A Corporate Coup D’Etat), communications strategist, journalist and Independent Media Association Political Reporter of the Year.
