The Climate Law Could Short-Circuit EV Tax Credits, Making Qualifying for Them Nearly Impossible

electric car charging station

By James Morton Turner

President Joe Biden signed a far-reaching climate, energy and health care bill1on Aug. 16, 2022, that invests an unprecedented US$370 billion in energy and climate programs over the next 10 years – including incentives to expand renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles will be essential2 for the United States to meet its climate goals. And the new law3, which includes a host of other health and tax-related provisions4, aims to encourage people to trade their gasoline-fueled cars for electrics by offering a tax credit of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and up to $4,000 for used electric vehicles through 2032.

But there’s a catch, and it could end up making it difficult for most EVs to qualify for the new incentive.

The new law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, requires that new electric vehicles meet stringent sourcing requirements for critical materials, the components of the battery, and final assembly to qualify for the tax credits. While some automakers, like Tesla and GM, have well-developed domestic supply chains, no electric vehicle manufacturer currently meets all the requirements.

Building a domestic EV supply chain

green living

At first glance, the revised EV tax credits seem like a smart move.

Existing U.S. policy allows credits5 for the first 200,000 electric vehicles a manufacturer sells. Those credits helped jump-start demand for EVs6. But industry leaders, including Tesla and GM, have already hit that cap, while most foreign automakers’ vehicles are still eligible. The law eliminates the cap for individual automakers and extend the tax credits through 2032 – for any vehicle that meets the sourcing requirements.

Rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles will be essential for the United States to meet its climate goals.  

Right now, China dominates7 the global supply chain for materials and lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. This is no accident. Since the early 2000s, Chinese policymakers have adopted aggressive policiesthat have supported advanced battery technologies, including investments in mines, materials processing and manufacturing. I discuss how China got a head start in the race toward a clean energy future in my new book, Charged: A History of Batteries and Lessons for a Clean Energy Future9.

Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who stalled earlier efforts to get these measures through the sharply divided Senate, said he hopes the requirements10 will help scale up the U.S. domestic critical minerals supply chain.

The EV incentives would complement other U.S. policies aimed at jump-starting domestic EV manufacturing capacity. Those include $7 billion in grants to accelerate the development of the battery supply chain allocated in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 202111 and a $3 billion expansion of the Advanced Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program12 included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

The problem is that the Inflation Reduction Act’s13 sourcing requirements come online so quickly, starting in 2023, and ratchet upward so rapidly, that the plan could backfire. Instead of expanding electric vehicle adoption, the policy could make almost all electric vehicles ineligible for the tax incentives.

Even Tesla’s Gigafactory relies on China

car charging

The new law excludes incentives for any new vehicle which contains battery materials or components extracted, processed, manufactured or assembled by a “foreign entity of concern” – a category which includes China.

According to Benchmark Intelligence14, a market research firm that tracks the battery industry, China currently controls 81% of global cathode manufacturing capacity, 91% of global anode capacity, and 79% of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity. By comparison, the United States has 0.16% of cathode manufacturing capacity, 0.27% of anode manufacturing capacity, and 5.5% of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity.

Even the U.S.’s most advanced battery factories, such as Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory, currently rely on materials processed in China15. Despite Ford’s plans to expand its domestic supply chain, its most recent deals16 are for sourcing batteries from Chinese manufacturer CATL.

In addition to excluding materials and components sourced from China starting in 2023, the Inflation Reduction Act also requires that a minimum percentage of the materials and components in batteries be sourced domestically or from countries the U.S. has a fair trade agreement with, such as Australia and Chile. The threshold starts at 40% of the value of critical minerals in 2023 and ramps up to 80% in 2027, with similar requirements for battery components.

If a manufacturer doesn’t meet these requirements, its vehicle would be ineligible for the tax credit. Whether the Treasury Department would come up with exemptions remains to be seen.

Although EV manufacturers are already pursuing plans to develop supply chains that meet these sourcing requirements, proposals for mines and processing facilities often face challenges. Indigenous and environmental concerns have slowed a proposed lithium mine in Nevada17. In some cases, key materials, such as cobalt and graphite, are not readily sourced domestically or from fair-trade allies.

Right now, China dominates the global supply chain for materials and lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. This is no accident. .  

Proposed recycling projects could help meet demand. Redwood Materials18 projects its recycling facility, currently under construction in Nevada, will supply cathode and anode materials to support one million electric vehicles per year by 2025. Despite such optimistic projections, experts anticipate19 that recycling can only play a small role in offsetting the demand for raw materials needed to scale up electric vehicle adoption in the coming decade.

How much can the law do to cut emissions?

Clean energy supporters called the legislation historic20. In addition to a massive investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles, it provides support for technologies such as carbon capture and storage and zero-carbon fuels, and includes a fee to curtail methane emissions21, as well as some trade-offs that boost fossil fuels22.

Forecasters have projected that the climate package as a whole could help put the U.S. on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 40% by 203023 compared to 2005 levels – still short of the Biden administration’s goal of a 50% reduction24, but closer.

family outingBut for the U.S. to hit those goals, electric vehicles will have to replace fossil-fueled vehicles by the millions. A realistic EV tax credit that allows time for manufacturers to diversify their supply chains and makes these vehicles more affordable for all Americans will be crucial. The policy risks short-circuiting EV tax credits just when they are needed most.

The article was originally published in The Conversation on 08 August 2022 and was updated on 17 August 2022.

About the Author

james morton turnerJames Morton Turner Researcher on the recent history of U.S. environmental politics and policy, including public lands, climate change, and science and technology. I received a B.S. from Washington and Lee University in 1995, an A.M. in American Civilization from Brown University in 1996, a Ph.D. in History (History of Science) from Princeton University in 2004, and a certificate in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton in 2005.


  1. In The Senate of the United States – 117th Congress, 1st Session
  2. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, EPA
  3. The Inflation Act Reduction of 2022,
  4. Senate approves Inflation Reduction Act, clinching long-delayed health and climate bill, The Washington Post, August 7, 2022
  5. Tax Incentives, US Department of Energy
  6. Charged: A History of Batteries and Lessons for a Clean Future
  7. China’s Role in Supplying Critical Minerals for the Global Energy Transition, July 2022
  8. Driving a Green Future, January 2021
  9. Charged: A History of Batteries and Lessons for a Clean Future
  10. Automakers press U.S. Senator Manchin for changes to EV tax credit proposal, Reuters, August 4, 2022
  11. Battery, Materials, and Recycling, US Department of Energy file:///C:/Users/Lulu/Downloads/FY22_BIL_Battery_Materials_Manufacturing_and_Recycling_NOI_-_Final_2.11.pdf
  12. Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program, US Department of Energy
  13. In The Senate of the United States – 117th Congress, 1st Session
  14. What Does the US Inflation Act Mean for the EV Battery Supply Chain?, Benchmark,
  15. TESLA Impact Report, 2021 15. TESLA Impact Report, TESLA, 2021
  16. Ford to buy cheaper CATL EV batteries to catch Tesla, Reuters, July 22, 2022
  17. A controversial lithium mine in Nevada is one step closer to operation, Grist, March 2, 2022
  18. We’re increasing the supply of battery materials while reducing environmental impact, cost, and supply chain risks., Redwood Materials,
  19. Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries, Communications Materials, Nature,
  20. Climate groups react to Senate passing the Inflation Reduction Act, CNBC, August 7, 2022
  21. Inflation Reduction Act Methan Emissions Charge: In Brief, Congressional Research Service,
  22. Democrats Got a Climate Bill. Joe Manchin Got Drilling, and More., The New York Times, July 30, 2022
  23. A Congressional Climate Breakthrough, Rhodium Group,
  24. FACT SHEET: President Biden Sets 2030 Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Target Aimed at Creating Good-Paying Union Jobs and Securing U.S. Leadership on Clean Energy Technologies, The White House, April 22, 2021
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of The World Financial Review.